MLB Grind Down: Saturday, October 3 - Page Three

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2015-10-03 19:56:27

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee – 7:10 PM EST

Chicago Cubs					Milwaukee
			Kyle Hendricks					Tyler Wagner
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIL (0)					0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.233	0.605	0.269	0.209	SP vs. Left	0.591	1.684	0.706	0.087
SP vs. Right	0.233	0.605	0.269	0.209	SP vs. Right	0.591	1.684	0.706	0.087
Batter Splits			CHC vs R		Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Hendricks

Hendricks came out in his last start and pitched extremely well (six innings, nine strikeouts). While expecting the strikeouts to stay that high and for him to shut out his opponents is tough, he does have a great matchup against a Brewers squad that does not have a lot left out on the field. For his price, Hendricks makes a solid play under the top pitchers tonight. Rating = 7

Salaries: $7,700 FD, $7,400 DK

Tyler Wagner

Wagner has really struggled in his first two starts this year. In those two games, he has allowed ten earned runs in only seven innings pitched. He now has a very tough matchup against a Cubs squad full of offensive firepower. He is an easy avoid tonight. Rating = 4.5

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

This Cubs squad features a high total of 4.41. All the big names are in play against Wagner who has been crushed in his first two starts this year.

Elite Plays:

Anthony Rizzo
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.383 — ISO: 0.255

Kyle Schwarber
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.409 — ISO: 0.287

Kris Bryant
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.380 — ISO: 0.219

Secondary Plays:

Miguel Montero
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.157

Dexter Fowler

Milwaukee

Hendricks has kept righties to a wOBA of .254, but has allowed lefties a wOBA of .351 this year. While the Brewers are tough to target, Scooter Gennett should be in a great spot for cheap tonight and Adam Lind should be able to get on base as well.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

Adam Lind
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.381 — ISO: 0.216

Scooter Gennett
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.310 — ISO: 0.127

St. Louis at Atlanta – 7:10 PM EST

St. Louis					Atlanta
			John Lackey					Shelby Miller
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			STL (-151)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.252	0.675	0.296	0.228	SP vs. Left	0.225	0.65	0.289	0.197
SP vs. Right	0.252	0.675	0.296	0.228	SP vs. Right	0.225	0.65	0.289	0.197
Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R		Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

John Lackey

Lackey has been a solid pitcher all season long. While he does not feature a high upside due to his strikeout rate of 19.4%, he has been extremely consistent, pitching seven innings in seven of his last ten starts. Over that span, he has posted a SIERA of 3.52, which would make him a decent play, but due to the fact he may be limited tonight, he is not the safest option. Rating = 6

Salaries: $9,000 FD, $9,900 DK

Shelby Miller

Miller comes into this game in bad form. Over the last month of play he has posted a SIERA of 4.71 and a low strikeout rate of 15.7%. While he may face a good portion of the Cardinals bench today, he is still a large underdog and is not an option tonight. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6,800 FD, $7,700 DK

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

While Miller could be targeted, there is no telling who will play or how many at bats the Cardinals will get. Avoid the situation.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

None

Atlanta

Lackey has held batters to a wOBA of .268 from the right side of the plate, but has allowed lefties a wOBA of .324. This Atlanta offense has a team total of 3.27 and the bats can be avoided tonight.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

None

Miami at Philadelphia – 7:35 PM EST

Miami					Philadelphia
			Justin Nicolino					Alec Asher
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIA (-115)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.251	0.774	0.328	6.1%	SP vs. Left	0.291	1.006	0.425	11.30%
SP vs. Right	0.251	0.774	0.328	6.1%	SP vs. Right	0.291	1.006	0.425	11.30%
Batter Splits			MIA vs R		Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Justin Nicolino

Nicolino is not someone to play in any format. He has a 5.85 SIERA and a ridiculously low 7.3% strikeout rate over the last month. Avoid him. Rating = 3.5

Salaries: $6,300 FD, $5,200 DK

Alec Asher

Asher comes into this game with a SIERA of 5.39 and a strikeout rate of 11.9%. There is no need to spend a roster spot on him tonight. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5,000 FD, $4,200 DK

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The same Marlins that were in play in the early game are in play again. Watch the lineups closely as some players should get rested, which in turn could open up some good value against Asher.

Elite Plays:

Dee Gordon
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.072

Justin Bour
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.250

Secondary Plays:

Christian Yelich
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.344 — ISO: 0.131

Philadelphia

The Phillies are always tough to trust when facing any pitcher this year. Yet, they have a solid matchup against Nicolino and have some nice value plays on the slate.

Elite Plays:

Darin Ruf
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.434 — ISO: 0.257

Secondary Plays:

Aaron Altherr
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.268 — ISO: 0.182

Houston at Arizona – 8:10 PM EST

Houston					Arizona
			Collin McHugh					Jeremy Hellickson
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
								8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.250	0.692	0.304	0.234	SP vs. Left	0.271	0.807	0.348	0.195
SP vs. Right	0.25	0.692	0.304	0.234	SP vs. Right	0.271	0.807	0.348	0.195
Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs R		Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Collin McHugh

McHugh has had a decent season for the Astros, but has sputtered a bit recently. Over his last four starts he has allowed 15 earned runs, but has also managed to strikeout 23 batters during that span (23.2 innings). He has a tough matchup going into Chase Field against the Diamondbacks, which limits his value tonight. Rating = 6

Salaries: $9,000 FD, $8,000 DK

Jeremy Hellickson

Hellickson has come back from injury to throw three starts. He has gone 12 overall innings and has allowed six earned runs. He has a season long 4.15 SIERA and does not provide huge upside with his 19% strikeout rate. The matchup is too risky against the Astros tonight in Chase. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $6,800 FD, $5,500 DK

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros have a highly explosive offense that creates a lot of risk/reward situations. Tonight they have a team total of 4.51 against Hellboy who has allowed a .321+ wOBA to batters from both sides of the plate. Carlos Correa makes for a solid play tonight in a hitter friendly environment.

Elite Plays:

Carlos Correa
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.352 — ISO: 0.198

George Springer
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.331 — ISO: 0.149

Secondary Plays:

Evan Gattis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.114

Jose Altuve
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.315 — ISO: 0.127

Colby Rasmus

Arizona

McHugh will attempt to shut down this Diamondbacks offense tonight that features a team total of 3.99. McHugh has been a reverse splits pitcher this year as he has shut down lefties (.285 wOBA), but has allowed a .334 wOBA to righties on the year.

Elite Plays:

Paul Goldschmidt
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.400— ISO: 0.236

Secondary Plays:

David Peralta
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.397— ISO: 0.228

Phil Gosselin
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.363— ISO: 0.255

Oakland at Seattle – 9:10 PM EST

Oakland					Seattle
			Sean Nolin					Roenis Elias
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.294	0.852	0.362	0.107	SP vs. Left	0.246	0.728	0.322	0.186
SP vs. Right	0.294	0.852	0.362	0.107	SP vs. Right	0.246	0.728	0.322	0.186
Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs L		Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Sean Nolin

Nolin is not someone to have any exposure to regardless of the matchup. He has a 5.50 SIERA coming into this game and one of the lowest strikeout rates of any starter (11.7%). Move on. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5,800 FD, $4,100 DK

Roenis Elias

Elias has been serviceable for the Mariners this year. Over his last eight starts, he sports a 4.21 SIERA and a solid 22.3% strikeout rate. The upside is there today against an Athetics squad that has been a middle of the road to bottom third of the league offense all year long. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7,400 FD, $6,900 DK

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

This A’s squad is always hard to target as they don’t pack enough punch to really be worth spending roster spots on. With that said, Danny Valencia makes a decent play against the lefty tonight.

Elite Plays:

Danny Valencia
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.137

Secondary Plays:

Billy Burns
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.342 — ISO: 0.099

Seattle

Nolin has allowed a .345+ wOBA to batters from both sides of the plate in a small sample size this season. The Mariners feature a decent team total of 4.32. Nelson Cruz is an elite play against lefties at all times and makes for a top option on the night slate.

Elite Plays:

Nelson Cruz
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.462 — ISO: 0.321

Franklin Gutierrez
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.417 — ISO: 0.310

Secondary Plays:

Mark Trumbo
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.349 — ISO: 0.200

Ketel Marte
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.146

San Diego at LA Dodgers – 9:10 PM EST

San Diego					LA Dodgers
			Robbie Erlin					Zack Greinke
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.282	0.758	0.332	0.167	SP vs. Left	0.211	0.581	0.256	0.26
SP vs. Right	0.282	0.758	0.332	0.167	SP vs. Right	0.211	0.581	0.256	0.260
Batter Splits	SDP BvP		SD vs R		Batter Splits	LAD BvP		LA vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Robbie Erlin

Erlin struggled mightily in his first start (in Coors), but was able to bounce back in his last start and threw seven scoreless. He is a low upside pitcher (17.3% career strikeout rate) and has a tough matchup against the Dodgers who are a tough offense for any pitcher. Avoid him tonight. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $5,300 FD, $5,400 DK

Zack Greinke

Greinke will attempt to make one more showing for the Cy Young this year and he has a great matchup to do it in. He has made four starts against the Padres this year (28.2 innings pitched) and has only allowed four runs. He brings his 23.6% strikeout rate into his last start of the year and makes for the top option on the night. Rating = 8.5

Salaries: $12,400 FD, $12,600 DK

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Greinke has been stellar all year long. This Padres squad features the lowest total of the slate. Avoid the bats.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

None

LA Dodgers

Erlin has been hit or miss in his first two starts. This Dodgers squad has a 4.11 team total and a number of their righties are in play tonight.

Elite Plays:

Howie Kendrick
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.313 — ISO: 0.103

Scott Van Slyke
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.345 — ISO: 0.140

Secondary Plays:

Yasmani Grandal
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.365 — ISO: 0.080

Justin Ruggiano
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.457 — ISO: 0.349

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