MLB Grind Down: Sunday, April 3rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-04-04 02:15:15

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Fantasy point averages listed use FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.

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St. Louis at Pittsburgh – 12:05 PM

St. Louis					Pittsburgh
			Adam Wainwright					Francisco Liriano
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT -110					6.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.243	0.625	0.277	20.7%	SP vs. Left	0.270	0.740	0.331	31.00%
SP vs. Right	0.202	0.541	0.243	19.3%	SP vs. Right	0.215	0.633	0.285	25.50%
Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs L		Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Adam Wainwright : FD: $8,600 — DK: $8,700

Pitching Stats:
2015: — SIERA: 3.45 — K%: 18.0% — BB%: 3.6% — HR/9: 0.0 Hard Hit% 21.8%

Pittsburgh Pirates Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 14) — Strikeout Rate: 20.6% (Rank: 17)

Analysis: Baseball is back! Even though there are only three games on Sunday, we typically only have one on opening night, so we should consider ourselves lucks. The season kicks off with a battle between two of the best teams in the National League over the last few years. Wainwright will open as the Cardinals’ ace. He missed most of last season, after blowing out his Achilles. We shouldn’t put too much stock into his numbers from last season, considering the fact that he only pitched 28 innings. It’s also hard to put a ton of stock in his numbers from 2014, as he is an aging pitcher. Wainwright had a mediocre spring, posting a 4.80 ERA with only 11 strikeouts in 15 innings of work. For now, I recommend taking a wait and see approach Wainwright. He opens up against a very capable Pirates’ offense.

Pitcher Rating: 78.8

Francisco Liriano : FD: $8,400 — DK: $9,300

Pitching Stats:
2015: — SIERA: 3.38 — K%: 26.5% — BB%: 9.1% — HR/9: 0.7 Hard Hit% 24.3%

St. Louis Cardinals Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.291 (Rank: 27) — Strikeout Rate: 23.6% (Rank: 28)

Analysis: Liriano is a pitcher that you never feel comfortable in targeting. He had a lot of great outings last season, but he also mixed in a number of duds. He finished the 2015 season with a 3.38 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 26.5%. Most of his strikeouts come from hitters chasing out of the zone though, which is why his pitch count gets up quickly and why he ends up walking a lot of hitters. Gerrit Cole is technically the Pirates’ ace, but he is dealing with a rib injury. Liriano experienced some success against the Cardinals last season, holding them to a .211 batting average while striking out 25 batters in 26 innings of work. St. Louis was one of the worst offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching and they didn’t do a whole lot to address that problem in the offseason. Of the two pitchers in this game, I’d give the edge to Liriano.

Pitcher Rating: 84.5

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Projected Starters

Targets

The major issue that you are going to see in the first couple of days in the season is the lack of exploitable matchups. Teams are going to have their ace on the mound for the first game of the season, which leads to a lot of low scoring games. This game has the lowest total of the three Sunday games at only 7.0 runs. If you look at the projected Cardinals’ starters, only Matt Carpenter, Matt Holliday, Randal Grichuk, and Stephen Piscotty had a wOBA of at least .325 against left-handed pitching. They are the top four targets here, but I’m not going out of my way to get any of them into my lineup.

Matt Holliday
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$2,800		Salary:$3,100
			Position:OF		Position:OF
			FPPG:8.3		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	0.351	0.131	124	4	17.7%	14.1%
vs.LH Pitching	0.347	0.148	121	2	19.5%	19.5%

Matt Carpenter
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$3,400		Salary:$4,100
			Position:3B		Position:3B
			FPPG:10.7		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	0.372	0.233	139	28	22.7%	12.2%
vs.LH Pitching	0.327	0.201	107	8	25.6%	10.9%

Stephen Piscotty
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$2,700		Salary:$3,400
			Position:OF		Position:1B/OF
			FPPG:7.6		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	0.364	0.189	133	7	21.9%	7.8%
vs.LH Pitching	0.376	0.186	141	2	22.7%	9.1%

Randal Grichuk
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$2,600		Salary:$3,300
			Position:OF		Position:OF
			FPPG:8.9		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	0.370	0.272	137	17	31.4%	6.3%
vs.LH Pitching	0.348	0.257	122	6	28.8%	3.4%

Pittsburgh

Projected Starters

Targets

The Pirates lost Pedro Alvarez in the offseason, but they did get a capable left-handed hitter in John Jaso. As I mentioned above, runs are going to be hard to come by in the first couple of days of the season. Of the six teams in action on Sunday, the Pirates have the lowest team total on the board. If this was a full slate, they would be an easy offense to avoid in all league formats. However, with only three games on tap, there are a few plays worth mentioning. Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, and John Jaso all had at least a .344 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season. Gregory Polanco looks to make a leap in his second season as a professional. He is a speedy player with some decent pop in his bat.

Andrew McCutchen
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$4,600		Salary:$4,200
			Position:OF		Position:OF
			FPPG:11.4		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	0.380	0.196	146	23	19.4%	14.3%
vs.RH Pitching	0.376	0.200	143	18	19.8%	15.2%

Starling Marte
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$3,400		Salary:$4,100
			Position:OF		Position:OF
			FPPG:10.0		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	0.337	0.157	117	19	19.4%	4.3%
vs.RH Pitching	0.344	0.152	122	13	19.3%	4.6%

Gregory Polanco
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$3,300		Salary:$4,000
			Position:OF		Position:OF
			FPPG:9.2		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	0.304	0.125	94	9	18.6%	8.4%
vs.RH Pitching	0.323	0.135	107	7	16.5%	8.9%

John Jaso
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$2,500		Salary:$3,000
			Position:C		Position:OF
			FPPG:6.9		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	0.364	0.173	136	5	18.1%	13.0%
vs.RH Pitching	0.358	0.180	132	5	17.8%	11.2%

Toronto at Tampa Bay – 03:05 PM

Toronto					Tampa Bay
			Marcus Stroman					Chris Archer
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -111					7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.232	0.646	0.287	20.8%	SP vs. Left	0.223	0.624	0.283	21.20%
SP vs. Right	0.264	0.623	0.278	20.4%	SP vs. Right	0.237	0.650	0.292	25.40%
Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R		Batter Splits	TB BvP		TB vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Marcus Stroman : FD: $7,700 — DK: $9,100

Pitching Stats:
2015: — SIERA: 3.28 — K%: 17.5% — BB%: 5.8% — HR/9: 0.7 Hard Hit% 21.8%

Tampa Bay Rays Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.307 (Rank: 21) — Strikeout Rate: 21.4% (Rank: 23)

Analysis: Stroman is coming off of incredible 2015 campaign where he basically become the Blue Jays’ ace in the postseason. He finished his 2015 season with a 3.28 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 17.5%. As you will soon find out, the Rogers Centre is one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in all of baseball. We don’t have to worry about that here though, as the Blue Jays are facing the Rays in the somewhat pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field. The Rays were able to pick up a couple of nice offensive pieces in the offseason, but they will still be a below-average offense in the American League. Stroman seems a bit overpriced on DraftKings, but he is the second cheapest pitcher on FanDuel.

Pitcher Rating: 75.5

Chris Archer : FD: $9,500 — DK: $9,400

Pitching Stats:
2015: — SIERA: 3.08 — K%: 29.0% — BB%: 7.6% — HR/9: 0.8 Hard Hit% 32.2%

Toronto Blue Jays Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.341 (Rank: 1) — Strikeout Rate: 18.7% (Rank: 5)

Analysis: There are conflicting trends with Archer in his season opener. While he is arguably the most talented pitcher in this slate, he faces the team that had the best offense in baseball last season. In 2015, the Blue Jays had the highest wOBA against right-handed pitching (.341), while posting the fifth lowest strikeout rate (18.7%). If this game was being played in Toronto, Archer would be an easy fade. However, with this game being played in Tampa Bay, Archer is my top pitching target in this three-game slate. He was absolutely dominant at home last season, holding batters to a .213 batting average and striking out 144 batters in only 110 innings of work. Even if Archer gives up a few runs, his strikeouts should more than make up for it.

Pitcher Rating: 90.6

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Starters

Targets

While the Blue Jays boast arguably the best offense in baseball, this is not a great spot against Chris Archer. The big hitters in this lineup have really struggled against him in the past – Edwin Encarnacion (5/36), Jose Bautista (5/23), and Josh Donaldson (2/17). If I had to roster a single pitcher in this slate, it would be Archer. While you have to do it in small slates every once in a while, I generally try to avoid targeting hitters against my starting pitcher. The only player that really interests me in this matchup is Encarnacion, who does have three career home runs against Archer.

Edwin Encarnacion
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$4,300		Salary:$4,400
			Position:1B		Position:1B
			FPPG:12.1		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	0.392	0.280	150	39	15.7%	12.3%
vs.RH Pitching	0.399	0.294	155	33	14.4%	12.3%

Tampa Bay

Projected Starters

Targets

The Rays added a few pieces in the offseason, most notably Corey Dickerson, Steve Pearce, and Brad Miller. The Rays really struggled against right-handed pitching in 2015, so the left-handed bats of Dickerson and Miller should help. While Marcus Stroman isn’t necessarily a favorable matchup, the Rays are better plays than the Blue Jays in a points per dollar sense. This game is basically set as a pick ‘em and Stroman doesn’t strike out nearly as many hitters as Chris Archer does. Dickerson’s wOBA of .398 against right-handed pitching last season is a bit inflated by the fact that half of his games were in Coors Field, but he still had a lot of success away from Coors as well. Kevin Kiermaier, Desmond Jennings, and Brad Miller are intriguing punt plays.

Corey Dickerson
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$3,300		Salary:$3,500
			Position:OF		Position:OF
			FPPG:8.8		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	0.371	0.232	119	10	23.9%	4.3%
vs.RH Pitching	0.398	0.280	138	10	21.1%	4.0%

Kevin Kiermaier
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$2,500		Salary:$3,300
			Position:OF		Position:OF
			FPPG:7.5		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	0.309	0.156	98	10	17.8%	4.5%
vs.RH Pitching	0.324	0.176	108	8	15.6%	4.7%

Desmond Jennings
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$2,400		Salary:$3,100
			Position:OF		Position:OF
			FPPG:6.6		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	0.294	0.072	87	1	15.7%	7.4%
vs.RH Pitching	0.287	0.083	82	1	15.0%	8.8%

Brad Miller
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$2,200		Salary:$3,200
			Position:SS		Position:OF/SS
			FPPG:7.1		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	0.319	0.144	105	11	20.3%	9.5%
vs.RH Pitching	0.348	0.187	125	11	19.9%	11.2%

NY Mets at Kansas City – 07:37 PM

NY Mets					Kansas City
			Matt Harvey					Edinson Volquez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM -105					7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left		0.295			SP vs. Left	0.231	0.728	0.321	17.40%
SP vs. Right	0.213	0.544	0.237	24.3%	SP vs. Right	0.243	0.662	0.296	17.60%
Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs R		Batter Splits	KC BvP		KC vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Harvey : FD: $9,700 — DK: $9,200

Pitching Stats:
2015: — SIERA: 3.23 — K%: 24.9% — BB%: 4.9% — HR/9: 0.9 Hard Hit% 26.7%

Kansas City Royals Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 16.3% (Rank: 1)

Analysis: Harvey had an up and down 2015 season. After struggling to fully recover from his Tommy John surgery early in the season, he put together a tremendous run down the stretch. In the month of August, he posted a 0.33 ERA, a strikeout rate of 25%, and he lowered his walk rate to 2.1%. He has always been an elite strikeout pitcher, but in his season opener, he faces a Royals’ offense that had by far the fewest strikeouts of any team in baseball last season. The move to an American League ballpark isn’t great, but at least the park is considered pitcher-friendly. Harvey’s velocity has been good in the spring, but he has been dealing with a blood clot in his bladder. The Royals are going to make some quick outs (they like to swing early in counts), but I see Harvey as more of a GPP play on Sunday. Chris Archer provides a higher floor, given the fact that he is pitching at home.

Pitcher Rating: 87.5

Edinson Volquez : FD: $7,000 — DK: $6,700

Pitching Stats:
2015: — SIERA: 4.35 — K%: 18.2% — BB%: 8.5% — HR/9: 0.7 Hard Hit% 30.4%

New York Mets Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 20) — Strikeout Rate: 20.2% (Rank: 15)

Analysis: Volquez has never been a popular target in DFS. Strikeouts are king in fantasy baseball and he just doesn’t boast an elite strikeout rate. He finished the 2015 season with a 4.35 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 18.2%. He also gave up hard contact on nearly one-third of the balls put in play. Volquez benefitted greatly from playing in Kauffman Stadium, which is where he will be pitching tonight. In terms of his matchup, this is not a favorable one. After they acquired Yoenis Cespedes, they became one of the best offenses in baseball. Volquez has a great defense at his back, but his upside is limited, both from his low strikeout rate and his matchup.

Pitcher Rating: 68.2

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Starters

Targets

It’s going to be fun to watch the Mets’ offense this season. They brought back all of their major bats and they added some complimentary pieces in Neil Walker and Asdrubal Cabrera. We could also see a breakout season from second year man Michael Conforto. Even though they are playing in a pitcher friendly ballpark on Sunday, the Mets draw the best matchup on the board. In 2015, Edinson Volquez gave up a .321 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .296 wOBA to right-handed hitters. There are a number of ways that we can attack this matchup, but I always prefer to target the hitters near the top of the lineup.

Yoenis Cespedes
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$3,800		Salary:$4,600
			Position:OF		Position:OF
			FPPG:11.3		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	0.367	0.251	135	35	20.9%	4.9%
vs.RH Pitching	0.383	0.261	146	27	19.0%	3.5%

Curtis Granderson
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$3,400		Salary:$4,500
			Position:OF		Position:OF
			FPPG:10.6		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	0.357	0.198	132	26	22.1%	13.3%
vs.RH Pitching	0.384	0.225	151	24	19.1%	14.1%

Lucas Duda
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$2,600		Salary:$4,200
			Position:1B		Position:1B
			FPPG:10.0		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	0.359	0.242	133	27	24.9%	11.9%
vs.RH Pitching	0.354	0.236	130	20	22.7%	14.0%

Michael Conforto
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$2,500		Salary:$3,600
			Position:OF		Position:OF
			FPPG:8.7		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	0.359	0.236	134	9	20.1%	8.8%
vs.RH Pitching	0.371	0.256	142	9	20.1%	8.9%

David Wright
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$2,600		Salary:$4,100
			Position:3B		Position:3B
			FPPG:10.5		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	0.359	0.145	133	5	20.7%	12.6%
vs.RH Pitching	0.334	0.113	116	3	22.7%	12.9%

Travis D’Arnaud
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$2,800		Salary:$3,600
			Position:C		Position:C
			FPPG:9.6		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	0.355	0.218	131	12	18.3%	8.6%
vs.RH Pitching	0.329	0.186	113	8	19.9%	7.4%

Kansas City

Projected Starters

Targets

The Royals made a habit of making great pitchers look ordinary last season. They are going to make you work for every out, as their goal is to put the ball in play and manufacture runs. While Matt Harvey dominated right-handed hitters last season, he did allow a .298 wOBA to left-handed bats. Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Alex Gordon all had at least a .347 wOBA against right-handed pitching in 2015. They are the three top targets in this Royals’ lineup.

Eric Hosmer
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$3,400		Salary:$4,400
			Position:1B		Position:1B
			FPPG:10.3		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	0.355	0.162	125	18	16.2%	9.1%
vs.RH Pitching	0.378	0.192	141	14	15.7%	10.5%

Mike Moustakas
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$2,900		Salary:$4,000
			Position:3B		Position:3B
			FPPG:9.6		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	0.353	0.186	124	22	12.4%	7.0%
vs.RH Pitching	0.353	0.175	123	12	13.8%	8.1%

Alex Gordon
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$2,600		Salary:$4,000
			Position:OF		Position:OF
			FPPG:8.9		FPPG:N/A
Statistics	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	0.351	0.161	122	13	21.8%	11.6%
vs.RH Pitching	0.347	0.162	120	8	21.7%	12.7%

If you are new to the sport, check out my Blueprint to Daily Fantasy Baseball