MLB Grind Down: Sunday, August 16 - Page Two

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2015-08-16 16:42:01

Detroit at Houston – 2:10 PM EST

Detroit					Houston
			Matt Boyd					Mike Fiers
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			HOU (-190)					8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.387	1.154	0.482	0.129	SP vs. Left	0.226	0.651	0.286	0.24
SP vs. Right	0.352	0.912	0.393	0.196	SP vs. Right	0.232	0.704	0.305	0.256
Batter Splits			DET vs R		Batter Splits			HOU vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Boyd – Boyd has looked decent in three of his first four starts, though the one bad start is so ugly it can’t be ignored; seven runs without recording an out against Boston when he was pitching for the Blue Jays before being traded. He had a low walk rate with a solid strikeout rate in the minors, but there is no chance I would consider using him on the road against this Houston lineup. Pitcher Rating – 4
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 19 – SIERA: 4.10 – ERA: 7.11 – K%: 17.2% – BB%: 2.3% – HR/9: 2.37

Salaries: $5,300 FD, $4,000 DK

Mike Fiers – Fiers is a decent arm with an above-average strikeout rate, but his fly ball lean is not well suited to a hitters park in Houston, or a Detroit lineup with several power bats. He doesn’t have strong platoon splits, so it is not an advantage for him to face a right-handed heavy Detroit team. He has enough strikeout potential to be worth a GPP flyer but is not safe for cash games today. Pitcher Rating – 5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 129 – SIERA: 3.75 – ERA: 4.03 – K%: 23.5% – BB%: 8.4% – HR/9: 1.11

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Hitting against Mike Fiers is a bit of a boom or bust situation. His strong strikeout rate combined with a fly ball lean makes these Detroit batters better tournament plays than cash game plays. The return of Miguel Cabrera lifts the overall upside of the offense.

Elite Plays:

Miguel Cabrera – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .428 – OBP: .450 – ISO: .210 – wRC+:176
J.D. Martinez – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .388 – OBP: .342 – ISO: .276 – wRC+:148

Secondary Plays:

Ian Kinsler – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .336 – OBP: .354 – ISO: .119 – wRC+:113
Anthony Gose – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .307 – OBP: .321 – ISO: .107 – wRC+:92
Victor Martinez – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .269 – OBP: .275 – ISO: .139 – wRC+:166

Houston

The Astros bats have been cold recently, but there is a lot of upside in this offense against a young left-handed pitcher. Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa are elite middle infield bats against lefties, and there is home run power up and down this lineup. Altuve and Correa can be used in any format, while the other batters are strong tournament plays, or can be used as pieces of an Astros stack.

Elite Plays:

Jose Altuve – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .397 – OBP: .431 – ISO: .142 – wRC+:157
Carlos Correa – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .395 – OBP: .354 – ISO: .286 – wRC+:155

Secondary Plays:

Evan Gattis – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .272 – OBP: .250 – ISO: .179 – wRC+:69
Chris Carter – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .305 – OBP: .313 – ISO: .189 – wRC+:93

Cleveland at Minnesota – 2:10 PM EST

Cleveland					Minnesota
			Carlos Carrasco					Tommy Milone
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CLE (-140)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.203	0.571	0.253	0.268	SP vs. Left	0.204	0.589	0.262	0.156
SP vs. Right	0.234	0.631	0.277	0.27	SP vs. Right	0.281	0.812	0.354	0.153
Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs L		Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Carlos Carrasco – Carlos Carrasco – Carrasco could get lost in the shuffle today with four higher-profile names on the mound. Don’t be the one to overlook him in your tournament lineups today. His peripherals are trumped only by Chris Sale, as he has a higher strikeout rate and lower SIERA than Greinke, Bumgarner, and Harvey. He has a higher BABIP and HR/FB% than all of those other pitchers, so on a day when things fall his way, he can top any of them. Pitcher Rating – 9
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 144 – SIERA: 2.76 – ERA: 3.68 – K%: 27.2% – BB%: 4.9% – HR/9: 0.87

Salaries: $10,000 FD, $10,800 DK

Tommy Milone – Milone is a fly ball pitcher with a low strikeout rate and decent control who is at the mercy of his HR/FB rate. In his last three starts, he has allowed 13 earned runs with six home runs. Prior to that, he had five straight starts with no homers and was quite effective in that stretch with only five runs allowed over that stretch. Overall, his home run downside is higher than his strikeout upside and he is unlikely to receive much run support facing Carlos Carrasco. Pitcher Rating – 4.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 81 – SIERA: 4.38 – ERA: 3.76 – K%: 16.7% – BB%: 6.7% – HR/9: 1.55

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

There is always upside against Tom Milone, though the individual pieces of the Indians lineup are better plays against right-handed pitching. Ryan Raburn is always a strong play against lefties where he comes at a near minimum price.

Elite Plays:

Ryan Raburn – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .383 – OBP: .375 – ISO: .233 – wRC+:149

Secondary Plays:

Carlos Santana – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .295 – OBP: .357 – ISO: .045 – wRC+:87
Francisco Lindor – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .327 – OBP: .354 – ISO: .083 – wRC+:110
Chris Johnson – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .330 – OBP: .348 – ISO: .075 – wRC+:110

Minnesota

Carrasco is untouchable when he’s on, with a high strikeout rate backed up by a strong ground ball rate. There is no reason to play Minnesota bats today.

Secondary Plays:

Philadelphia at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM EST

Philadelphia					Milwaukee
			Aaron Harang					Taylor Jungmann
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIL (-180)					8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.284	0.772	0.34	0.148	SP vs. Left	0.252	0.678	0.298	0.213
SP vs. Right	0.257	0.721	0.316	0.194	SP vs. Right	0.197	0.571	0.258	0.211
Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R		Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Aaron Harang – Harang has been terrible for the past two months, allowing at least four runs in eight of his last nine starts. Since the beginning of June, he has an 8.10 ERA with just 28 strikeouts in 50 innings. His low strikeout rate combined with his fly ball tendencies are leading to home run troubles. He is a pitcher to play against and can be easily ignored as a pitching option. Pitcher Rating – 2.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 121 – SIERA: 4.60 – ERA: 4.52 – K%: 15.5% – BB%: 6.5% – HR/9: 1.11

Salaries: $5,700 FD, $5,300 DK

Taylor Jungmann – Jungmann finally had a bad outing in his last start at the Cubs, being pulled in the third inning, but he had been on a quite a roll before that start. He is combining an above average strikeout rate with a solid 50% ground ball rate that should allow him to be successful. The Phillies are not an easy matchup, but he has a good chance for a win and could be a useful starter today, certainly as an SP2. Pitcher Rating – 6.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 74 – SIERA: 3.77 – ERA: 2.42 – K%: 21.2% – BB%: 8.0% – HR/9: 0.24

Salaries: $8,100 FD, $9,000 DK

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Jungmann is a difficult pitcher to play against with his high ground ball rate and solid strikeout rate. He has been equally effective against both right and left-handed batters. I would only consider Phillies bats as secondary plays where they are at a reduced salary.

Secondary Plays:

Ryan Howard – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .345 – OBP: .307 – ISO: .240 – wRC+:119
Odubel Herrera – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .326 – OBP: .321 – ISO: .138 – wRC+:107
Cesar Hernandez – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .303 – OBP: .333 – ISO: .085 – wRC+:91

Milwaukee

The Brewers are one of the top teams to target today with Aaron Harang ‘s recent struggles and home run tendencies. Harang has been solid against right-handed hitters, pushing them down to secondary plays. Against left-handed batters, Harang has more walks than strikeouts and a .357 wOBA allowed. Adam Lind is the top choice from this lineup with his elite numbers against right-handed pitching, but all Milwaukee bats can be considered.

Elite Plays:

Adam Lind – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .387 – OBP: .380 – ISO: .232 – wRC+:144
Scooter Gennett – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .297 – OBP: .300 – ISO: .140 – wRC+:82

Secondary Plays:

Ryan Braun – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .348 – OBP: .330 – ISO: .211 – wRC+:118
Jonathan Lucroy -2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .295 – OBP: .319 – ISO: .094 – wRC+:82
Khris Davis – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .362 – OBP: .348 – ISO: .218 – wRC+:127
Jean Segura – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .255 – OBP: .275 – ISO: .056 – wRC+:53

Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM EST

Chicago Cubs					Chicago White Sox
			Dan Haren					Chris Sale
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHW (-173)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.245	0.74	0.32	0.207	SP vs. Left	0.212	0.513	0.237	0.35
SP vs. Right	0.244	0.707	0.306	0.154	SP vs. Right	0.216	0.621	0.274	0.302
Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs L		Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CWS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Dan Haren – Haren’s strikeout rate has been falling steadily every year, while his fly ball rate has come up to a dangerous level. He has allowed nine home runs in his last five starts, and that is going to continue to be a problem for him. That being said, he maintains a very low walk rate, and with all the fly balls, when they don’t leave the park, it limits the amount of hits against him. A game against Chris Sale in a hitters park makes him an easy avoid for me today. Pitcher Rating – 4.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 139 – SIERA: 4.35 – ERA: 3.55 – K%: 17.0% – BB%: 4.9% – HR/9: 1.55

Salaries: $6,900 FD, $6,700 DK

Chris Sale – I am not at all scared off by those two seven-run outings that we saw from Sale. By his standards, he has had a down month, but in that month he has 25.7% strikeout rate, 5% walk rate and a 3.06 SIERA. He has simply been unlucky with a ridiculous .416 BABIP since the All-Star Break. He can rack up strikeouts in any matchup, and facing the Cubs only adds to his upside. I view Zack Greinke and Madison Bumgarner as slightly safer options today, but Sale has the highest upside of the group. Pitcher Rating – 9.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 150 – SIERA: 2.46 – ERA: 3.47 – K%: 31.7% – BB%: 4.9% – HR/9: 0.84

Salaries: $11,200 FD, $11,600 DK

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Cubs batters are completely off the board for me against Chris Sale.

Secondary Plays:

Chicago White Sox

Dan Haren ’s extreme fly ball rate brings upside for opposing hitters. It is most pronounced against left-handed batters, where his fly ball rate sits at 52.2% along with a 36.6% hard contact rate. I’ll target left-handed batters first, but Jose Abreu is very much in play as well, as he has shown more power against right-handed pitching this season.

Elite Plays:

Jose Abreu – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .374 – OBP: .355 – ISO: .226 – wRC+:140
Melky Cabrera – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .326 – OBP: .339 – ISO: .119 – wRC+:107
Adam Eaton – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .366 – OBP: .375 – ISO: .182 – wRC+:135

Secondary Plays:

Adam LaRoche – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .314 – OBP: .326 – ISO: .156 – wRC+:99

Miami at St. Louis – 2:15 PM EST

Miami					St. Louis
			David Phelps					Carlos Martinez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			STL (-220)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.242	0.708	0.315	0.186	SP vs. Left	0.265	0.804	0.347	0.182
SP vs. Right	0.28	0.757	0.332	0.157	SP vs. Right	0.234	0.613	0.274	0.276
Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R		Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

David Phelps – Phelps is a low upside pitcher who has topped six strikeouts only once this season. He only has two disaster starts this year, but he always seems to be on the edge of a disaster. There is no reason to consider using him against the Cardinals. Pitcher Rating – 2
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 109 – SIERA: 4.46 – ERA: 4.35 – K%: 15.5% – BB%: 6.8% – HR/9: 0.74

Salaries: $5,600 FD, $4,700 DK

Carlos Martinez – Martinez is a high upside option today, with a very strong strikeout/ground ball combination. He has allowed more than three earned runs only once in his last 16 starts. The Marlins have been one of the worst offenses in the league since the All-Star Break and Martinez is a heavy favorite and solid option in all formats. Pitcher Rating – 8
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 137 – SIERA: 3.43 – ERA: 2.62 – K%: 24.3% – BB%: 8.9% – HR/9: 0.79

Salaries: $9,900 FD, $9,100 DK

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Carlos Martinez has very good numbers against both right and left-handed hitters. His upside combined with the struggles of the Marlins offense make them an easy team to avoid.

Secondary Plays:

St. Louis

David Phelps is a very hittable pitcher as his 4.46 SIERA shows. He has no splits to worry about, he is equally mediocre against both right and left-handed batters and has no ground ball or fly ball lean. The Cardinals batters are all in play today, and could be looked at as a potential stack. Matt Carpenter has been one of the hottest hitters in the league and is a top play today.

Elite Plays:

Matt Carpenter – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .382 – OBP: .387 – ISO: .221 – wRC+:146
Kolten Wong – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .345 – OBP: .345 – ISO: .167 – wRC+:53121

Secondary Plays:

Randal Grichuk – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .387 – OBP: .345 – ISO: .287 – wRC+:150
Jason Heyward – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .326 – OBP: .327 – ISO: .154 – wRC+:108
Jhonny Peralta – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .333 – OBP: .348 – ISO: .129 – wRC+:113

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