MLB Grind Down: Sunday, August 30 - Page Three
Seattle at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM EST
| Seattle | Chicago White Sox | ||||||||
 | Edgar Olmos |  | Jose Quintana | ||||||
| LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CHW (-130) | 8 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.25 | 0.833 | 0.359 | 0 | SP vs. Left | 0.247 | 0.656 | 0.288 | 0.212 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.158 | 0.405 | 0.191 | 0.095 | SP vs. Right | 0.27 | 0.714 | 0.313 | 0.208 |
| Batter Splits | SEA BvP | SEA vs L | Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CWS vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Edgar Olmos – Seattle turns to rookie Edgar Olmos to make his first major league start. This does not look like a good situation for the Mariners as Olmos has been a reliever most of his minor league career, and doesn’t even have great numbers in that role. He’s unlikely to pitch deep into the game, and cannot be considered as a play in any format. Pitcher Rating – 1
Salaries: $4,600 FD, $4,000 DK
Jose Quintana – Quintana is an easy pitcher to overlook, but he is very steady and in a good position to pick up a win today. He has allowed more than three runs in only five of his 26 starts this season, with help from a very low walk rate that is accompanied by a decent strikeout rate. He induces ground balls at an above average rate which further helps to limit damage against him. He doesn’t have the big upside you look for in tournaments, but could be an option for cash games or as an SP2.
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 166 – SIERA: 3.57 – ERA: 3.63 – K%: 20.2% – BB%: 4.9% – HR/9: 0.65
Salaries: $8,300 FD, $7,800 DK
Batter Grind Down
Seattle
Jose Quintana is a pitcher I don’t like to play against, but of course Nelson Cruz is a top play against left-handed pitcher with his ridiculous numbers and Franklin Gutierrez can be considered in tournaments with how well he’s been hitting, though he certainly won’t continue at this pace.
Elite Plays
Nelson Cruz- 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .465 – OBP: .427 – ISO: .336 – wRC+:208
Secondary Plays:
Franklin Gutierrez – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .469 – OBP: .405 – ISO: .351 – wRC+:211
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are a team to target today against young left-hander Edgar Olmos. I’ll look to the right-handed bats first, but it is safe to assume they will see quite a bit of the Seattle bullpen as well, so lefties can be considered as well.
Elite Plays
Jose Abreu – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .310 – OBP: .314 – ISO: .139 – wRC+:95
Avisail Garcia – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .324 – OBP: .358 – ISO: .106 – wRC+:105
Secondary Plays:
Geovany Soto – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .447 – OBP: .429 – ISO: .270 – wRC+:191
Melky Cabrera – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .250 – OBP: .250 – ISO: .100 – wRC+:53
Alexei Ramirez – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .283 – OBP: .299 – ISO: .090 – wRC+:76
Adam Eaton – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .265 – OBP: .288 – ISO: .066 – wRC+:64
Baltimore at Texas – 3:05 PM EST
| Baltimore | Texas | ||||||||
 | Miguel Gonzalez |  | Derek Holland | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TEX (-125) | 9.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.266 | 0.806 | 0.351 | 0.163 | SP vs. Left | 0.286 | 0.643 | 0.282 | 0.191 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.252 | 0.739 | 0.325 | 0.181 | SP vs. Right | 0.258 | 0.721 | 0.311 | 0.165 |
| Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs L | Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Miguel Gonzalez – Gonzalez has given up at least three runs in each of his last six starts, and this looks like an unlikely spot for him to turn that around. He is an average at best pitcher in every category, and there is no reason to consider starting him at Texas. Pitcher Rating – 3
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 135 – SIERA: 4.39 – ERA: 4.78 – K%: 17.8% – BB%: 8.0% – HR/9: 1.59
Salaries: $6,700 FD, $5,400 DK
Derek Holland – Holland has looked fine in his first two starts back off the DL, with the best sign being that his control looks good with just one walk in 12 innings. While it’s nice to see him back in the rotation, he was never a dominant pitcher to begin with, so it is easy to avoid using him against a tough lineup like Baltimore in a hitters park. Pitcher Rating – 5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 13 – SIERA: 3.88 – ERA: 4.73 – K%: 16.4% – BB%: 1.8% – HR/9: 3.38
Salaries: $8,000 FD, $6,700 DK
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
This is one of the best games to target for offense today. While I will look to the Texas side first, the Orioles right-handed bats should be able to get to Derek Holland. He has allowed a .337 wOBA for his career against right-handed batters. Chris Davis is always an interesting tournament option when facing a left-handed starter, as he goes overlooked but has huge power potential every time he steps up to the plate.
Elite Plays:
Adam Jones – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .374 – OBP: .345 – ISO: .240 – wRC+: 139
Manny Machado – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .336 – OBP: .346 – ISO: .149 – wRC+: 113
Secondary Plays:
Matt Wieters – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .368 – OBP: .345 – ISO: .200 – wRC+: 135
Chris Davis – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .374 – OBP: .342 – ISO: .241 – wRC+: 139
Texas
Miguel Gonzalez is allowing a .365 wOBA to left-handed batters and a .329 wOBA to right-handed batters and is generally a very hittable pitcher. The Rangers can be stacked in tournaments and used I cash games wherever their prices are favorable.
Elite Plays:
Prince Fielder – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .383 – OBP: .409 – ISO: .141 – wRC+: 141
Mitch Moreland – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .376 – OBP: .349 – ISO: .233 – wRC+: 136
Shin-Soo Choo – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .372 – OBP: .371 – ISO: .214 – wRC+: 134
Secondary Plays:
Adrian Beltre – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .299 – OBP: .295 – ISO: .136 – wRC+: 83
Delino DeShields – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .33 – OBP: .363 – ISO: .121 – wRC+: 106
Elvis Andrus – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .272 – OBP: .290 – ISO: .085 – wRC+: 64
St. Louis at San Francisco – 4:05 PM EST
| St. Louis | San Francisco | ||||||||
 | Jaime Garcia |  | Chris Heston | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| STL (-112) | 6.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.263 | 0.703 | 0.313 | 0.246 | SP vs. Left | 0.262 | 0.758 | 0.334 | 0.141 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.193 | 0.542 | 0.242 | 0.189 | SP vs. Right | 0.224 | 0.594 | 0.265 | 0.221 |
| Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs R | Batter Splits | SFG BvP | SF vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jaime Garcia – Garcia just keeps rolling along with an extreme ground ball rate and solid but not great strikeout rate. His ERA is going to come up at some point as his .235 BABIP is too low to continue, but even when more hits start falling in, he is likely to stay around his 3.16 SIERA, which is still an outstanding numbers. The Giants offense is very pesky and not a great upside matchup, but Garcia offers a pretty solid floor if that’s what you’re looking for. Pitcher Rating – 7
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 86 – SIERA: 3.16 – ERA: 1.77 – K%: 19.3% – BB%: 6.1% – HR/9: 0.42
Salaries: $9,200 FD, $11,000 DK
Chris Heston – Heston’s early season magic has worn off, and he wouldn’t even be in the major league rotation if not for injuries to the Giants other starters. In his last five starts, Heston has a terrible 15:16 K:BB ratio. He had enough success early in the year that you can say that upside still exists, especially at home in a pitcher friendly ballpark, but I can’t go near him until he shows improvement. Pitcher Rating – 4
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 145 – SIERA: 3.93 – ERA: 3.34 – K%: 18.4% – BB%: 8.0% – HR/9: 0.56
Salaries: $7,300 FD, $7,500 DK
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
Even when he was pitching well, Chris Heston was having some trouble with left-handed batters. He has allowed a .331 wOBA to lefties with a low 14.8% strikeout rate and a high 11.2% walk rate. I’m not going to load up on St. Louis bats in a tough hitters park, but you can certainly use one or two of these batters to fill in your lineups.
Elite Plays
Matt Carpenter – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .367 – OBP: .372 – ISO: .211 – wRC+:136
Jason Heyward – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .343 – OBP: .341 – ISO: .170 – wRC+:119
Secondary Plays:
Kolten Wong –2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .341 – OBP: .341 – ISO: .167 – wRC+:118
San Francisco
While the Giants are a good offensive team, I just don’t see much reason to look at them facing Jaime Garcia with so many other good situations around the league. Buster Posey makes a fine off the radar tournament play, but that’s all I’ll be considering here.
Secondary Plays:
Buster Posey – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .327 – OBP: .318 – ISO: .160 – wRC+:114
Oakland at Arizona – 4:10 PM EST
| Oakland | Arizona | ||||||||
 | Jesse Chavez |  | Allen Webster | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| ARI (0) | 0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.258 | 0.72 | 0.316 | 0.187 | SP vs. Left | 0.240 | 0.741 | 0.335 | 0.112 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.247 | 0.68 | 0.3 | 0.239 | SP vs. Right | 0.268 | 0.827 | 0.36 | 0.164 |
| Batter Splits | OAK BvP | OAK vs R | Batter Splits | ARI BvP | ARI vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jesse Chavez – Chavez has been inconsistent recently mixing some good outings in with some very rough starts. A trip to a hitters park in Arizona does not look good for his current form. Some of his recent trouble is due to a high 22.6% HR/FB rate over the past month that is likely to come down, but his 4.24 SIERA in August is probably the best you could expect today. He is not nearly one of the worst pitchers going today, but is not worth using. Pitcher Rating – 5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 144 – SIERA: 3.93 – ERA: 4.00 – K%: 20.1% – BB%: 6.8% – HR/9: 1.00
Salaries: $7,600 FD, $6,500 DK
Allen Webster – Webster will be recalled from AAA to start against Oakland today. He was absolutely awful in four starts earlier this year, allowing 15 runs in 19 innings. His previous two big league stints were equally terrible. He had some success earlier in his minor league career but everytime he’s come up he’s gotten hammered with a low strikeout rate and high walk rate. Even against Oakland, he cannot be considered. Pitcher Rating – 2
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 21 – SIERA: 6.11 – ERA: 6.86 – K%: 13.4% – BB%: 16.5% – HR/9: 2.57
Salaries: $4,700 FD, $6,500 DK
Batter Grind Down
Oakland
Despite some recent offensive struggles, the A’s need to be considered today going against Allen Webster in a good hitters park. Josh Reddick and Stephen Vogt have both slowed down off their early season pace, but are historically very strong against right-handed pitching.
Elite Plays
Josh Reddick – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .356 – OBP: .346 – ISO: .185 – wRC+:132
Stephen Vogt – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .359 – OBP: .355 – ISO: .225 – wRC+:134
Secondary Plays:
Mark Canha – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .363 – OBP: .330 – ISO: .239 – wRC+:137
Arizona
Jesse Chavez is not a pitcher I usually load up against, but he does allow a .335 wOBA to left-handed batters, and is not used to pitching in this kind of a ballpark. Arizona’s left-handed batters can be used where priced well, and Paul Goldschmidt is always a strong tournament play.
Elite Plays
Paul Goldschmidt – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .409 – OBP: .437 – ISO: .233 – wRC+:159
David Peralta – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .382 – OBP: .366 – ISO: .229 – wRC+:140
Secondary Plays:
Ender Inciarte – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .356 – OBP: .368 – ISO: .124 – wRC+:122
Jacob Lamb – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .323 – OBP: .331 – ISO: .140 – wRC+:100
Chicago Cubs at LA Dodgers – 8:00 PM EST
| Chicago Cubs | LA Dodgers | ||||||||
 | Jake Arrieta |  | Alex Wood | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CHC (-122) | 6.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.183 | 0.527 | 0.239 | 0.288 | SP vs. Left | 0.238 | 0.616 | 0.275 | 0.243 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.217 | 0.573 | 0.253 | 0.249 | SP vs. Right | 0.259 | 0.713 | 0.315 | 0.202 |
| Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs L | Batter Splits | LAD BvP | LA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jake Arrieta – Arrieta has reached matchup-proof status for me. I just love everything about his game. He has 13 straight quality starts, and he has brought his already solid ground ball rate up to 62.4% over the past month. There is no better combination for a pitcher than high strikeout/high ground ball, and that’s what Arrieta can do. When the Dodgers are on, they can be tough on right-handed pitching, but I give Arrieta the edge in this game. Pitcher Rating – 8.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 174 – SIERA: 2.94 – ERA: 2.22 – K%: 26.2% – BB%: 6.3% – HR/9: 0.47
Salaries: $11,300 FD, $12,400 DK
Alex Wood – Wood still seems to have the reputation of being the strong pitcher that he was in 2014, but his numbers are simply not there this year. He’s had a handful of good starts, but much more mediocrity. He’s not bad by any means, I just think it needs to be stated clearly that he is not pitching anywhere near an elite level. He has a below average strikeout rate, and over the past month his walk rate is up to a dangerous 11.5%. The Cubs present an interesting matchup as they do have a lot of guys with high strikeout rates, but also big power. I can understand why someone might consider Wood a tournament option, but it won’t be me. Pitcher Rating – 5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 148 – SIERA: 4.22 – ERA: 3.70 – K%: 17.6% – BB%: 7.9% – HR/9: 0.61
Salaries: $7,700 FD, $7,000 DK
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
Cubs batters make for interesting tournament plays against Alex Wood. The Sunday night game often goes underowned, and there is big potential from this boom or bust offense. Alex Wood is allowing a .343 wOBA to right-handed batters, so that’s where I’ll start. And don’t forget about Anthony Rizzo, who has outstanding numbers against left-handed pitching. If he can homer off of Clayton Kershaw, I imagine he is not afraid of Alex Wood.
Elite Plays
Kris Bryant – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .348 – OBP: .347 – ISO: .200 – wRC+:121
Dexter Fowler – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .371 – OBP: .395 – ISO: .138 – wRC+:136
Anthony Rizzo – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .413 – OBP: .431 – ISO: .198 – wRC+:165
Secondary Plays:
LA Dodgers
I don’t see any reason to play Dodgers bats against one of the few aces pitching today.
Secondary Plays: