MLB Grind Down: Sunday, September 27 - Page Two

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2015-09-27 13:35:14

Baltimore at Boston – 1:35 PM EST

Baltimore					Boston
			Ubaldo Jimenez					Henry Owens
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL (-110)					9
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.235	0.741	0.33	0.208	SP vs. Left	0.306	0.905	0.395	0.214
SP vs. Right	0.264	0.724	0.322	0.212	SP vs. Right	0.238	0.706	0.308	0.182
Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs L		Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Ubaldo Jimenez – It’s always an adventure with Jimenez, he can be anywhere between the best and worst pitcher of the day anytime he takes the mound. His control has been all over the map, with a 13.4% walk rate over the past month that has led to a 4.89 SIERA over that span, but a respectable 3.68 ERA. He is always a GPP option, but I am staying away from him right now as I just don’t trust anyone with that high of a walk rate. Pitcher Rating -5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 171 – SIERA: 3.96 – ERA: 4.16 – K%: 21.0% – BB%: 8.7% – HR/9: 1.00

Salaries: $7,900 FD, $7,300 DK

Henry Owens – Owens had his best start of the season against these Orioles two weeks ago, pitching into the 8th inning without allowing a run. He has a high 51% fly ball rate which is going to lead to some trouble on occasion, and this Baltimore team has quite a few batters who could cause him trouble this time around. His strikeout rate has not been high enough for me to want to take a chance on him, although it’s certainly possible he could put up another quality start. Pitcher Rating – 4
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 51 – SIERA: 4.65 – ERA: 4.41 – K%: 18.8% – BB%: 8.7% – HR/9: 1.24

Salaries: $5,900 FD, $6,600 DK

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

With a high fly ball pitcher with a decent strikeout rate, you are looking for home runs, and this Orioles team has quite a few guys who can hit for power. Owens has similar skills against both right and left-handed batters, so even Chris Davis could be a sneaky GPP play, as most people avoid lefty-lefty matchups.

Elite Plays

Manny Machado – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .327 – OBP: .327 – ISO: .180 – wRC+: 105

Secondary Plays:

Chris Davis – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .349 – OBP: .328 – ISO: .210 – wRC+: 120
Nolan Reimold – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .352 – OBP: .375 – ISO: .141 – wRC+: 122
Matt Wieters – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .317 – OBP: .300 – ISO: .167 – wRC+: 98

Boston

Just as playing on Ubaldo Jimenez is always a GPP option, it is also always worth considering playing against him. I generally avoid hitters against him in cash games, as he can be very good when he’s on. In tournaments, if his control is off, he can allow a lot of baserunners, and get into trouble with home runs to left-handed batters.

Elite Plays

David Ortiz – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .411 – OBP: .396 – ISO: .317 – wRC+: 160

Secondary Plays:

Dustin Pedroia – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .351 – OBP: .359 – ISO: .141 – wRC+: 119
Mookie Betts – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .344 – OBP: .336 – ISO: .179 – wRC+: 114
Jackie Bradley Jr. – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .328 – OBP: .297 – ISO: .266 – wRC+: 103

Philadelphia at Washington – 1:35 PM EST

Philadelphia					Washington
			Aaron Harang					Gio Gonzalez
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS (0)					0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.282	0.782	0.342	0.141	SP vs. Left	0.241	0.643	0.285	0.219
SP vs. Right	0.261	0.737	0.321	0.193	SP vs. Right	0.249	0.697	0.308	0.24
Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs L		Batter Splits	WAS BvP		WAS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Aaron Harang – It is amazing to look back now and see that at the end of May, Harang had a 2.02 ERA. Since then, regression has kicked in and his 4.93 ERA has caught up to his true skill level, which is shown by his 4.83 SIERA. He has a bad combination of a low strikeout rate with a high fly ball rate which has led to a mark of 2.06 HR/9 since early June when his season started going south. There is no upside and significant downside with Harang. Pitcher Rating-2
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 160 – SIERA: 4.83 – ERA: 4.93 – K%: 14.9% – BB%: 7.0% – HR/9: 1.29

Salaries: $5,200 FD, $5,200 DK

Gio Gonzalez – Gonzalez has been unpredictable recently, with some outstanding starts mixed in with some clunkers. He has double digit strikeouts in two of his last four games and an excellent 29.4% strikeout rate over the last month, but he can still get himself into trouble with questionable control at times. He gets a nice matchup at home against the Phillies, making him worth a play in tournaments, but I wouldn’t consider him safe for cash games. Pitcher Rating – 7
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 164 – SIERA: 3.76 – ERA: 3.94 – K%: 22.3% – BB%: 9.0% – HR/9: 0.44

Salaries: $9,600 FD, $8,300 DK

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Gio Gonzalez is a tough pitcher to go against. He will occasionally lose his control and give up a big inning, but he carries a good strikeout rate and gets a lot of ground balls. Given the state of the Phillies lineup, this looks like a situation to avoid today.

Secondary Plays:

Washington

Aaron Harang is a pitcher to play against. Bryce Harper is the top overall play of the day outside of Coors Field, with immense power potential against Harang, who allows a .358 wOBA with a low 9.8% strikeout rate and 44% fly ball rate to left-handed batters. He is a much better pitcher against righties, but does allow home runs at a rate of 1.43 HR/9 with his fly ball tendencies.

Elite Plays

Bryce Harper – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .488 – OBP: .483 – ISO: .364 – wRC+: 215

Secondary Plays:

Anthony Rendon – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .320 – OBP: .346 – ISO: .113 – wRC+: 100
Jayson Werth – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .308 – OBP: .326 – ISO: .139 – wRC+: 92
Yunel Escobar – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .362 – OBP: .386 – ISO: .113 – wRC+: 129
Clint Robinson – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .332 – OBP: .349 – ISO: .158 – wRC+: 109

Cleveland at Kansas City – 2:10 PM EST

Cleveland					Kansas City
			Danny Salazar					Chris Young
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CLE (-117)					8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.235	0.718	0.311	0.271	SP vs. Left	0.253	0.793	0.346	0.145
SP vs. Right	0.244	0.695	0.305	0.248	SP vs. Right	0.182	0.608	0.265	0.179
Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R		Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KC vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Danny Salazar – Salazar has been an elite strikeout pitcher for most of this season, but he may be wearing down as his K rate is down to 18.9% over the last month. Without the strikeouts, he is not worth his price, as he is susceptible to getting hit hard on occasion even when he was pitching at his best earlier in the year. I suppose he is worth a GPP play as he does have strikeout ability in his arm that can’t be matched by many pitchers in the league, but it seems unlikely that we’ll see it today. Pitcher Rating – 6
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 174 – SIERA: 3.38 – ERA: 3.51 – K%: 26.1% – BB%: 7.2% – HR/9: 1.19

Salaries: $9,100 FD, $9,700 DK

Chris Young – The Royals’ Chris Young will make his first start since July. He’s been used sparingly out of the bullpen for the past couple months, and I don’t see any reason to expect big things out of him. He has the most extreme fly ball rate of any pitcher in baseball, which can occassionaly work out in his favor in a pitcher friendly ballpark. It’s tough to expect a lot of innings out of him after such a long time off from starting, so I am not considering him as an option today. Pitcher Rating – 4
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 112 – SIERA: 5.21 – ERA: 3.29 – K%: 16.6% – BB%: 8.7% – HR/9: 1.29

Salaries: $6,300 FD, $4,100 DK

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Chris Young allows a lot of fly balls with a below average strikeout rate and a high 10% walk rate to left-handed batters. That sets up well for the Cleveland lineup, although the Kansas City ballpark does not play in their favor for home runs. The Indians should be able to score some runs, and I’ll be looking to the top of the lineup for most of their production, though Young is susceptible to allowing power to anyone at any time.

Elite Plays

Jason Kipnis – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .388 – OBP: .412 – ISO: .160 – wRC+: 150
Francisco Lindor – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .345 – OBP: .340 – ISO: .158 – wRC+: 120
Carlos Santana – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .336 – OBP: .352 – ISO: .201 – wRC+: 114

Secondary Plays:

Abraham Almonte – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .359 – OBP: .323 – ISO: .268 – wRC+: 129
Yan Gomes – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .299 – OBP: .274 – ISO: .185 – wRC+: 88

Kansas City

I’m not looking to target Kansas City hitters against Danny Salazar, although they can certainly cause trouble for any pitcher if they put out their best lineup. If playing any Royals, look to the left-handed batters as that’s where Salazar has been most susceptible this season.

Secondary Plays:

Eric Hosmer – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .379 – OBP: .388 – ISO: .183 – wRC+: 142
Kendrys Morales – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .385 – OBP: .363 – ISO: .252 – wRC+: 146
Alex Gordon – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .351 – OBP: .380 – ISO: .166 – wRC+: 123
Ben Zobrist – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .333 – OBP: .342 – ISO: .169 – wRC+: 112

Texas at Houston – 2:10 PM EST

Texas					Houston
			Martin Perez					Dallas Keuchel
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			HOU (-235)					8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.24	0.642	0.287	0.252	SP vs. Left	0.208	0.537	0.239	0.252
SP vs. Right	0.298	0.798	0.348	0.118	SP vs. Right	0.24	0.637	0.282	0.197
Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs L		Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Martin Perez – Perez wants to be Dallas Keuchel, but he just can’t pull it off as he doesn’t have the strikeout ability, the consistency or the control. Like Keuchel, Perez has a strong ground ball rate that allows him to post some quality starts, but his lack of dominance gives him no upside and makes his easy to avoid. Pitcher Rating – 4.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 65 – SIERA: 4.25 – ERA: 5.21 – K%: 13.2% – BB%: 7.6% – HR/9: 0.41

Salaries: $6,200 FD, $4,700 DK

Dallas Keuchel – Outside of one bad start against these Rangers two weeks ago, Keuchel has been one of the most consistent pitchers in the league. He has nine quality starts in 10 games since the beginning of August with a 71:13 K:BB ratio. His 61.8% ground ball rate is the second highest number in the league and to be able to combine that with a strong strikeout rate and low walk rate makes him a top option every time he takes the mound. I am willing to give him a pass on the rough start as the previous time he faced Texas he struck out 13 batters in seven scoreless innings. He is a strong play in all formats, trailing only Jake Arrieta for top pitcher of the day. Pitcher Rating – 9.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 219 – SIERA: 2.83 – ERA: 2.51 – K%: 23.6% – BB%: 5.5% – HR/9: 0.66

Salaries: $11,200 FD, $11,200 DK

Batter Grind Down

Texas

There is no reason to use hitters against Dallas Keuchel.

Secondary Plays:

Houston

Martin Perez has only one skill against right-handed batters; a good ground ball rate. His strikeout rate is a terrible 10.1% against righties and he is allowing a .357 wOBA. The ground ball rate plays well against some of Houston’s power bats, but overall this lineup should have no trouble scoring some runs off Perez. I expect the top of the order to cause him trouble today.

Elite Plays

Jose Altuve – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .417 – OBP: .439 – ISO: .166 – wRC+: 169
Carlos Correa – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .404 – OBP: .362 – ISO: .313 – wRC+: 160
George Springer – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .379 – OBP: .384 – ISO: .210 – wRC+: 142
Jed Lowrie – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .410 – OBP: .394 – ISO: .296 – wRC+: 163

Secondary Plays:

Evan Gattis – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .289 – OBP: .275 – ISO: .179 – wRC+: 80
Marwin Gonzalez – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .362 – OBP: .350 – ISO: .194 – wRC+: 131

Milwaukee at St. Louis – 2:15 PM EST

Milwaukee					St. Louis
			Tyler Cravy					John Lackey
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			STL (-235)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.288	0.881	0.382	0.161	SP vs. Left	0.261	0.734	0.321	0.16
SP vs. Right	0.304	0.88	0.377	0.2	SP vs. Right	0.255	0.679	0.298	0.228
Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs R		Batter Splits			STL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Tyler Cravy – Cravy has not been very good in limited action in his rookie season. He hasn’t pitched six innings in a game since early July and has been worse as a starter than when he’s worked out the bullpen. There is no reason to expect a long outing or a good outing from him today. Avoid. Pitcher Rating – 2
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 37 – SIERA: 4.65 – ERA: 5.97 – K%: 18.0% – BB%: 10.5% – HR/9: 1.19

Salaries: $4,000 FD, $4,300 DK

John Lackey – Lackey continues his outstanding season, beating his SIERA by a full run and posting an impressive 18 quality starts in his last 19 games. He appears to be getting stronger as the season wears on, with 25 strikeouts in his last 21 innings. He is a big favorite in a good matchup at home against Milwaukee and can be considered as a safe cash game option. Pitcher Rating – 8
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 207 – SIERA: 3.95 – ERA: 2.74 – K%: 19.3% – BB%: 6.0% – HR/9: 0.83

Salaries: $9,000 FD, $10,000 DK

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

John Lackey has exceptional numbers against right-handed batters, but is nothing special against lefties with a 13.3% strikeout rate. The Brewers lineup as a whole does not inspire much confidence right now, so I’ll be playing them sparingly if at all.

Secondary Plays:

Adam Lind – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .386 – OBP: .391 – ISO: .222 – wRC+: 142
Scooter Gennett – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .307 – OBP: .309 – ISO: .133 – wRC: 88

St. Louis

Cardinals batters are in play in all formats against Tyler Cravy and the Brewers bullpen. Cravy has allowed a .382 wOBA to left-handed batters and a .377 wOBA to right-handed batters.

Elite Plays

Matt Carpenter – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .382 – OBP: .379 – ISO: .231 – wRC+: 145
Jason Heyward – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .354 – OBP: .357 – ISO: .173 – wRC+: 126
Stephen Piscotty – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .358 – OBP: .356 – ISO: .179 – wRC+: 129

Secondary Plays:

Kolten Wong – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .340 – OBP: .345 – ISO: .159 – wRC+: 116
Tommy Pham – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .357 – OBP: .319 – ISO: .264 – wRC+: 128
Matt Holliday – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .353 – OBP: .395 – ISO: .120 – wRC+: 125
Jhonny Peralta – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .322 – OBP: .343 – ISO: .114 – wRC+: 104

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