MLB Grind Down: Sunday, September 6 - Page Three

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2015-09-06 15:33:10

Texas at LA Angels – 3:35 PM EST

Texas					LA Angels
			Colby Lewis					Hector Santiago
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAA (-123)					8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.293	0.811	0.351	0.147	SP vs. Left	0.228	0.601	0.271	0.193
SP vs. Right	0.259	0.756	0.327	0.202	SP vs. Right	0.238	0.735	0.321	0.215
Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs L		Batter Splits	LAA BvP		ANA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Colby Lewis – Earlier in the season, Lewis put up a handful of useable starts, but his strikeout rate has dropped off a cliff, down to 11.4% over the past month. A high fly ball pitcher who is not striking guys out should be avoided as there is far more downside than upside. Pitcher Rating – 3.5

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 170 – SIERA: 4.40 – ERA: 4.50 – K%: 16.7% – BB%: 5.1% – HR/9: 1.22

Salaries: $6,600 FD, $7,100 DK

Hector Santiago – We have an even more extreme fly ball pitcher on the other side of this matchup in Hector Santiago. He walks more batters and strikes out more batters than Colby Lewis, leaving his fate nearly entirely in the hands of his HR/FB rate. Like Lewis, he has not been in good form recently with a 5.23 SIERA over the past month. He is untouchable in cash games, and nothing but very long shot tournament appeal. Pitcher Rating – 5

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 152 – SIERA: 4.21 – ERA: 3.37 – K%: 21.9% – BB%: 8.3% – HR/9: 1.30

Salaries: $7,600 FD, $6,900 DK

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Hector Santiago is a boom or bust pitcher to play against, as his fly ball rate leads to a lot of outs and a lot of home runs. Consider the Rangers right-handed batters in tournaments.

Elite Plays:

Adrian Beltre – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .351 – OBP: .346 – ISO: .193 – wRC+: 118

Secondary Plays:

Delino Deshields – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .326 – OBP: .347 – ISO: .130 – wRC+: 101
Elvis Andrus – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .314 – OBP: .324 – ISO: .118 – wRC+: 93
Prince Fielder – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .332 – OBP: .332 – ISO: .176 – wRC+: 105

LA Angels

The Angels are a strong play today, as Colby Lewis has not been pitching well recently. He has a low 13.6% strikeout rate against left-handed batters and a high 50% fly ball rate to righties. The top of the Angels lineup is high on my priority list in both cash games and tournaments.

Elite Plays:

Mike Trout – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .409 – OBP: .395 – ISO: .280 – wRC+: 170
Albert Pujols – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .353 – OBP: .318 – ISO: .256 – wRC+: 131
Kole Calhoun – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .343 – OBP: .332 – ISO: .181 – wRC+: 124

Secondary Plays:

David Murphy – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .331 – OBP: .330 – ISO: .145 – wRC+: 112
Erick Aybar – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .281 – OBP: .308 – ISO: .062 – wRC+: 81

Seattle at Oakland – 4:05 PM EST

Seattle					Oakland
			Hisashi Iwakuma					Sean Nolin
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SEA (-135)					8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.268	0.713	0.311	0.191	SP vs. Left	0	0	0	0
SP vs. Right	0.211	0.601	0.263	0.238	SP vs. Right	0.333	1.666	0.712	0.000
Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs L		Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Hisashi Iwakuma – Iwakuma has slowed down since his no-hitter against Baltimore, but I have always been a fan of his. His low walk rate and 50% ground ball rate give him a chance to succeed every time he takes the mound. He gives you a handful of strikeouts, though not usually enough to be considered a strong tournament play. I will consider him as an SP2 today. Pitcher Rating – 7.5

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 89 – SIERA: 3.53 – ERA: 4.22 – K%: 20.6% – BB%: 5.0% – HR/9: 1.41

Salaries: $8,700 FD, $9,200 DK

Sean Nolin – Nolin gets the call from AAA for his first start of the year. He has been decent in the minors, but nothing that jumps off the page. I am not considering him in any format until we get a look at him at the major league level. Pitcher Rating – 3

Salaries: $4,600 FD, $5,500 DK

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

It is tough playing against pitchers with no track record. Sean Nolin is a left-handed pitcher, so Nelson Cruz is an elite play if he makes it back in the lineup today. For the rest of the Mariners, I would tread carefully, but they make for an intriguing stack, as it’s possible Nolin is not ready for the show.

Elite Plays:

Nelson Cruz – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .458 – OBP: .428 – ISO: .320 – wRC+: 203
Franklin Gutierrez – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .446 – OBP: .387 – ISO: .326 – wRC+: 195

Secondary Plays:

Kyle Seager – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .358 – OBP: .328 – ISO: .204 – wRC+: 133
Mark Trumbo – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .319 – OBP: .291 – ISO: .202 – wRC+: 106
Ketel Marte – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .300 – OBP: .314 – ISO: .127 – wRC+: 93
Robinson Cano – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .285 – OBP: .296 – ISO: .097 – wRC+: 82

Oakland

Hisashi Iwakuma is a very good pitcher, but does give up some home runs. You can consider Danny Valencia, Stephen Vogt or Josh Reddick as fill in players where they are near minimum salary. Note that Reddick left last night’s game with was called a “non-baseball illness”. I do not know what a “baseball-related illness” would be? Make sure you check the lineup before using him today.

Secondary Plays:

Josh Reddick – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .357 – OBP: .348 – ISO: .185 – wRC+: 131
Danny Valencia – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .379 – OBP: .317 – ISO: .279 – wRC+: 147
Stephen Vogt – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .370 – OBP: .364 – ISO: .232 – wRC+: 141

San Francisco at Colorado – 4:10 PM EST

San Francisco					Colorado
			Madison Bumgarner					Yohan Flande
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SFG (-180)					10
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.224	0.568	0.252	0.317	SP vs. Left	0.193	0.602	0.271	0.144
SP vs. Right	0.234	0.658	0.288	0.248	SP vs. Right	0.272	0.821	0.351	0.152
Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SF vs L		Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Madison Bumgarner – It’s always an interesting situation when a top pitcher goes to Coors Field. You can’t really consider anyone a cash game play in this matchup, but Bumgarner has been in such elite form recently, that he should be considered in tournaments. Over his last five starts, totaling 37 innings, he has 52 strikeouts with five walks and a 1.90 SIERA. That is tremendous pitching, and enough for me to consider playing him today. Pitcher Rating – 8

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 182 – SIERA: 2.91 – ERA: 2.96 – K%: 27.4% – BB%: 4.2% – HR/9: 0.84

Salaries: $12,500 FD, $10,400 DK

Yohan Flande – Flande’s strong 64% ground ball rate has proven to be a valuable commodity for a Coors Field pitcher. He has a 3.62 ERA and .315 wOBA allowed in home starts this season. That being said, you’re certainly not going to start a pitcher with a low strikeout rate in Coors Field. Pitcher Rating – 3.5

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 55 – SIERA: 3.90 – ERA: 4.04 – K%: 15.9% – BB%:8. 6% – HR/9: 1.78

Salaries: $5,100 FD, $4,300 DK

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Yohan Flande has a high enough ground ball rate that he’s not easy to load up against, but he is still likely to give up some runs today with a questionable walk rate and .355 wOBA allowed to right-handed batters. Look to get a couple Giants bats in your cash game lineups, starting with the righties.

Elite Plays:

Buster Posey – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .351 – OBP: .350 – ISO: .148 – wRC+: 129
Marlon Byrd – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .354 – OBP: .333 – ISO: .229 – wRC+: 124

Secondary Plays:

Angel Pagan – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .305 – OBP: .348 – ISO: .024 – wRC+: 98
Matt Duffy – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .275 – OBP: .283 – ISO: .101 – wRC+: 77
Brandon Belt – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .343 – OBP: .344 – ISO: .175 – wRC+: 124

Colorado

This is really an interesting situation on both the hitting and pitching side with Madison Bumgarner in Coors Field. I don’t think you can justify playing Rockies batters in cash games, but for tournaments, they can certainly be mixed in. CarGo and Arenado vs Bumgarner is must see TV, with hot streaks all around.

Secondary Plays:

Nolan Arenado – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .281 – OBP: .316 – ISO: .137 – wRC+: 58
Carlos Gonzalez – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .237 – OBP: .234 – ISO: .120 – wRC+: 28

LA Dodgers at San Diego – 4:10 PM EST

LA Dodgers					San Diego
			Brett Anderson					Andrew Cashner
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAD (-120)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.284	0.682	0.304	0.153	SP vs. Left	0.268	0.806	0.347	0.182
SP vs. Right	0.263	0.711	0.31	0.162	SP vs. Right	0.241	0.62	0.273	0.201
Batter Splits	LAD BvP		LA vs R		Batter Splits	SDP BvP		SD vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Brett Anderson – Anderson is a very steady source of production, as his high 66% ground ball rate and solid walk rate makes it very tough for runs to be scored in bunches against him. While that is great for the Dodgers, his low strikeout rate makes him an unexciting fantasy option, as there’s not much upside. He’s always sitting there at a reasonable salary if you just need someone to give you a decent floor, but there’s no reason to target him. Pitcher Rating – 7

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 152 – SIERA: 3.44 – ERA: 3.43 – K%: 15.9% – BB%: 6.4% – HR/9: 0.83

Salaries: $7,100 FD, $7,300 DK

Andrew Cashner – If you put aside the lofty expectations that Cashner has had throughout his career, he’s a fine pitcher. Solid strikeout and walk rates with a 48% ground ball rate in a pitchers park is going to give you a chance for success more often than not. The Dodgers offense has really not been playing well for a while, putting Cashner in play. The trouble is that he struggles mostly against left-handed batters, and the Dodgers can throw a good number of solid left-handed hitters against him. I would look for a decent, but not outstanding start. He doesn’t carry tremendous upside, but seems likely to pay off his salary, similar to Brett Anderson. Pitcher Rating – 7

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 156 – SIERA: 3.92 – ERA: 4.15 – K%: 19.9% – BB%: 7.1% – HR/9: 1.04

Salaries: $7,100 FD, $6,000 DK

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Andrew Cashner has wide splits this season, having been hit hard by left-handed batters with a .390 wOBA. Overall, the Dodgers offense has been struggling, and face a decent pitcher in a bad ballpark. However, a lot of their salaries have dropped so low across the industry that they can be used to fill in a lineup.

Secondary Plays:

Adrian Gonzalez – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .365 – OBP: .354 – ISO: .234 – wRC+: 135
Andre Ethier – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .390 – OBP: .390 – ISO: .212 – wRC+: 152
Yasmani Grandal – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .356 – OBP: .361 – ISO: .209 – wRC+: 129
Jimmy Rollins – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .263 – OBP: .260 – ISO: .137 – wRC+: 66
Justin Turner – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .390 – OBP: .373 – ISO: .224 – wRC+: 152

San Diego

This is not a good game to target a lot of offense, as Brett Anderson doesn’t allow a lot hard contact and generates ground ball against both right and left-handed batters.

Secondary Plays:

Derek Norris – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .316 – OBP: .313 – ISO: .142 – wRC+: 103
Matt Kemp – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .335 – OBP: .333 – ISO: .159 – wRC+: 115

Pittsburgh at St. Louis – 8:00 PM EST

Pittsburgh					St. Louis
			Gerrit Cole					John Lackey
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			STL (-104)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.237	0.663	0.296	0.235	SP vs. Left	0.254	0.717	0.315	0.159
SP vs. Right	0.247	0.661	0.292	0.246	SP vs. Right	0.257	0.688	0.301	0.222
Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs R		Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Gerrit Cole – Cole has clearly taken a step back from his early season dominance. It seems likely that he is a bit tired at this point in the season, having surpassed his career high in innings pitched. Over the past month, his strikeout rate is down to 20% and his SIERA is up to 3.94, having lost some of his ground ball ability, allowing more line drives and hard contact. This is still a top pitcher with the ability to put up a dominant start at any time, but he is a risk at his price, and no longer a sure thing. Pitcher Rating – 7.5

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 173 – SIERA: 3.21 – ERA: 2.64 – K%: 24.0% – BB%: 5.6% – HR/9: 0.47

Salaries: $9,400 FD, $11,000 DK

John Lackey – While Cole is wearing down, Lackey is certainly not. He is an underrated pitcher who just goes out and gets the job done start after start with little fanfare. He has 13 quality starts in his last 14 outings, and never beats himself. The Pirates offense is capable of a big game at any time, but they are in a bit of a funk recently. Lackey is likely to put up a solid game, but his price point at most sites makes him difficult to recommend heavily, as he doesn’t have extreme upside. Pitcher Rating – 7

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 178 – SIERA: 4.06 – ERA: 2.87 – K%: 18.3% – BB%: 6.0% – HR/9: 0.81

Salaries: $9,000 FD, $9,100 DK

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

“(player-popup)John Lackey”:/players/john-lackey-10671’s strikeout rate dips significantly against left-handed batters, and they can be used sparingly where appropriately priced. Andrew McCutcheon and Starling Marte can be considered in tournaments, but only as long shot plays.

Secondary Plays:

Neil Walker – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .335 – OBP: .333 – ISO: .181 – wRC+: 115
Gregory Polanco – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .320 – OBP: .339 – ISO: .131 – wRC+: 105
Andrew McCutcheon – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .381 – OBP: .397 – ISO: .211 – wRC+: 147
Starling Marte – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .332 – OBP: .334 – ISO: .149 – wRC+: 113

St. Louis

While Gerrit Cole has been struggling, he is still not a pitcher you want to be in play against. If you want to take a shot on a couple Cardinals bat in a tournament, they have been hitting well recently, but don’t get carried away. Overall, this is not a great game to target offense.

Secondary Plays:

Jason Heyward – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .348 – OBP: .347 – ISO: .173 – wRC+: 122
Matt Carpenter – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .372 – OBP: .377 – ISO: .219 – wRC+: 138

Jump to Page 1 2 3