MLB Grind Down: Sunday, September 6th

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2015-09-08 15:53:24

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

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Tampa Bay at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM EST

Tampa Bay					NY Yankees
			Chris Archer					Ivan Nova
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TBR (-130)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.216	0.599	0.269	26.0%	SP vs. Left	0.309	0.816	0.355	9.70%
SP vs. Right	0.236	0.635	0.285	25.1%	SP vs. Right	0.248	0.838	0.362	18.80%
Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TB vs R		Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Archer – This is a very interesting matchup with the talented Chris Archer going into Yankee Stadium to face a loaded lineup. Two of the best pitchers going today, Archer and Madison Bumgarner, both have difficult matchups. Archer’s strikeout numbers are elite, as he trails only Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale for the league’s best mark at 30.8%. He has three double-digit strikeout games in his last five starts, and clearly has the stuff to shut down any lineup on any day. I can’t give him a 100% backing in cash games due to the Yankees powerful offense, but he is a strong tournament option. Pitcher Rating – 9

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 181 – SIERA: 2.75 – ERA: 2.78 – K%: 30.8% – BB%: 6.4% – HR/9: 0.75

Salaries: $12,000 FD, $12,400 DK

Ivan Nova – I don’t see anything to like about Nova right now. His 50% ground ball rate is his only skill, but he doesn’t keep his walks down low enough to make up for his lack of strikeout ability. His 4.69 SIERA shows the type of pitcher he is. Pitcher Rating – 3

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 68 – SIERA: 4.69 – ERA: 4.50 – K%: 14.4% – BB%: 8.2% – HR/9: 1.06

Salaries: $6,300 FD, $5,100 DK

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Ivan Nova has been terrible against left-handed batters with a .362 wOBA allowed and an 8.1% strikeout rate. Tampa has not been good as a team against right-handed pitching, making for a bit of a tricky situation. I would let their cost at the site you’re playing dictate how much exposure you get to them. Where priced near minimum salary, their left-handed bats near the top of the order are strong plays.

Elite Plays:

John Jaso – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .342 – OBP: .354 – ISO: .150 – wRC+: 122
Asdrubal Cabrera – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .308 – OBP: .318 – ISO: .144 – wRC+: 98

Secondary Plays:

Grady Sizemore – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .282 – OBP: .269 – ISO: .172 – wRC+: 80
Daniel Nava – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .263 – OBP: .310 – ISO: .064 – wRC+: 62
Logan Forsythe – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .330 – OBP: .357 – ISO: .101 – wRC+: 113
Evan Longoria – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .304 – OBP: .304 – ISO: .150 – wRC+: 95

NY Yankees

You certainly don’t want to play against Chris Archer in a cash game, and most likely not in tournaments either. If you want to take a long shot on a home run in a tournament, it’s possible one of these Yankees lefties could get a pitch to hit.

Secondary Plays:

Brian McCann – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .343 – OBP: .327 – ISO: .233 – wRC+: 118
Carlos Beltran – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .353 – OBP: .340 – ISO: .199 – wRC+: 125

Baltimore at Toronto – 1:07 PM EST

Baltimore					Toronto
			Chris Tillman					Marco Estrada
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR (-171)					9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.250	0.671	0.299	17.2%	SP vs. Left	0.214	0.672	0.295	18.50%
SP vs. Right	0.241	0.739	0.322	16.5%	SP vs. Right	0.232	0.725	0.317	20.50%
Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R		Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Tillman – This is a terrible spot for Tillman, who has been struggling recently. You shouldn’t need me to tell you that starting pitchers at Toronto is a bad idea, but even more so when they have trouble with allowing home runs to right-handed batters. Stay far away from Tillman today. Pitcher Rating – 2

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 140 – SIERA: 4.63 – ERA: 4.87 – K%: 16.3% – BB%: 8.4% – HR/9: 0.96

Salaries: $6,800 FD, $4,700 DK

Marco Estrada – Estrada has a huge gap between his 3.16 ERA and his 4.54 SIERA. That is due to both a low BABIP and a low HR/FB ratio. Both of those will regress, and bring his ERA up with them. He is an extreme fly ball pitcher, and it looks like that is starting to catch up to him, having allowed six home runs in his last four starts. He has the ability to put up some good starts when his fly balls don’t reach the seats, but facing the Orioles in this ballpark does not look like a good time to take a chance on him. Pitcher Rating – 5

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 142 – SIERA: 4.54 – ERA: 3.16 – K%: 18.5% – BB%: 7.6% – HR/9: 1.07

Salaries: $8,800 FD, $7,200 DK

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

It’s home runs or bust against Marco Estrada, who allows over 50% fly balls to both right and left-handed batters. The Orioles power hitters are excellent tournament plays today, but don’t get carried away in cash games.

Elite Plays:

Chris Davis – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .383 – OBP: .343 – ISO: .323 – wRC+: 145
Manny Machado – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .378 – OBP: .361 – ISO: .220 – wRC+: 141
Adam Jones – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .337 – OBP: .310 – ISO: .206 – wRC+: 113

Secondary Plays:

Jonathan Schoop – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .406 – OBP: .358 – ISO: .264 – wRC+: 161
Matt Wieters – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .288 – OBP: .285 – ISO: .136 – wRC+: 79

Toronto

You can always load up Blue Jays bats at home, and today is no exception. Tillman is allowing a .354 wOBA to right-handed batters and has struggled with home runs to righties throughout his career. That is a perfect match for this Blue Jays offense loaded with right-handed power.

Elite Plays:

Edwin Encarnacion – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .380 – OBP: .355 – ISO: .283 – wRC+: 143
Josh Donaldson – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .382 – OBP: .355 – ISO: .256 – wRC+: 144
Jose Bautista – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .384 – OBP: .366 – ISO: .291 – wRC+: 145
Troy Tulowitzki – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .320 – OBP: .324 – ISO: .150 – wRC+: 89

Secondary Plays:

Russell Martin – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .313 – OBP: .306 – ISO: .186 – wRC+: 96
Ben Revere – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .324 – OBP: .351 – ISO: .073 – wRC+: 104
Justin Smoak – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .301 – OBP: .285 – ISO: .199 – wRC+: 88
Chris Colabello – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .384 – OBP: .375 – ISO: .183 – wRC+: 146

Cleveland at Detroit – 1:08 PM EST

Cleveland					Detroit
			Cody Anderson					Justin Verlander
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET (-140)					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.245	0.731	0.313	10.5%	SP vs. Left	0.227	0.664	0.293	19.30%
SP vs. Right	0.221	0.609	0.265	11.7%	SP vs. Right	0.296	0.793	0.347	17.50%
Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R		Batter Splits			DET vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Cody Anderson – Injuries to Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco have forced the Indians to leave Cody Anderson in the rotation. He has no business standing on a major league pitching mound with an 11.2% strikeout rate and a 4.76 SIERA. He has a moderate ground ball rate at 46.6% and a fairly low walk rate at 5.2%, but he is simply throwing the ball over the plate and hoping hitters get themselves out. His .235 BABIP might be making him believe it’s working, but he is a blowup candidate, and cannot be used in any format. Pitcher Rating – 2

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 58 – SIERA: 4.76 – ERA: 4.17 – K%: 11.2% – BB%: 5.2% – HR/9: 1.08

Salaries: $6,300 FD, $4,800 DK

Justin Verlander – Verlander is doing everything in his power to show us that he’s back. He has allowed just three earned runs in his last five starts, with a 26.5% strikeout rate and 3.35 SIERA over that span. I am starting to believe. I’m not ready to jump fully back on the bandwagon to the point where I’ll go all in on him, but I consider him a very reasonable option. Pitcher Rating – 7.5

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 92 – SIERA: 4.03 – ERA: 3.40 – K%: 20.2% – BB%: 5.7% – HR/9: 1.07

Salaries: $8,600 FD, $9,600 DK

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

With the way Justin Verlander has been pitching, it’s tough to target Cleveland batters. There is a little bit of tournament intrigue as Verlander allows a 49% fly ball rate to left-handed batters and a 1.15 HR/9.

Secondary Plays:

Jason Kipnis – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .400 – OBP: .430 – ISO: .155 – wRC+: 159
Michael Brantley – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .393 – OBP: .414 – ISO: .177 – wRC+: 155
Carlos Santana – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .342 – OBP: .352 – ISO: .212 – wRC+: 119

Detroit

Cody Anderson ‘s low BABIP against both right and left-handed batters is keeping his wOBA allowed at a reasonable number, but with this low of a strikeout rate, the Tigers are in play and make for a strong stacking option.

Elite Plays:

Miguel Cabrera – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .428 – OBP: .447 – ISO: .211 – wRC+: 177
J.D. Martinez – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .385 – OBP: .341 – ISO: .274 – wRC+: 147
Ian Kinsler – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .347 – OBP: .355 – ISO: .140 – wRC+: 120
Anthony Gose – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .322 – OBP: .332 – ISO: .126 – wRC+: 103

Secondary Plays:

Nick Castellanos – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .280 – OBP: .273 – ISO: .156 – wRC+: 74
Tyler Collins – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .303 – OBP: .285 – ISO: .159 – wRC+: 90

NY Mets at Miami – 1:10 PM EST

NY Mets					Miami
			Steven Matz					Jarred Cosart
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIA (0)					0.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.000	0.400	0.278	20.0%	SP vs. Left	0.241	0.695	0.313	15.30%
SP vs. Right	0.175	0.553	0.242	28.6%	SP vs. Right	0.257	0.690	0.305	14.60%
Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs R		Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Steven Matz – Mets rookie Steven Matz will be back in the rotation today to try and pick up where he left off after two strong starts to open his career earlier this season. He is a top prospect who has had success at every minor league level. We can’t put too much stock in 13 innings, but combined with his minor league numbers and his pedigree, he should be considered a tournament option today against the Marlins. He is risky for cash games until we see how he looks, but it is easy to imagine him pitching well today. Pitcher Rating – 7.5

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 13 – SIERA: 3.67 – ERA: 1.32 – K%: 26.9% – BB%: 9.6% – HR/9: 1.32

Salaries: $8,100 FD, $8,700 DK

Jarred Cosart – Cosart will rejoin the Marlins rotation today after missing two months. He was terrible earlier in the year, as his strong ground ball rate was not enough to make up for a 10% walk rate. His minor league rehab starts were not much better, and he is an easy avoid today against a hot Mets offense. Pitcher Rating – 3

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 45 – SIERA: 4.67 – ERA: 5.36 – K%: 14.9% – BB%: 10.3% – HR/9: 1.39

Salaries: $6,800 FD, $4,100 DK

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets have been one of the hottest offenses in the league over the past month and face a pitcher in Jarred Cosart who has yet to show any upside this season. Cosart’s biggest skill is a high ground ball rate, that shows up mostly against left-handed batters. Mets batters can be considered in all formats.

Elite Plays:

Yoenis Cespedes – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .387 – OBP: .345 – ISO: .251 – wRC+: 149
Travis d’Arnaud – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .368 – OBP: .353 – ISO: .234 – wRC+: 139
Curtis Granderson – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .388 – OBP: .387 – ISO: .232 – wRC+: 152

Secondary Plays:

Daniel Murphy – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .340 – OBP: .345 – ISO: .170 – wRC+: 119
Michael Conforto – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .392 – OBP: .375 – ISO: .258 – wRC+: 155

Miami

There are a lot of good offensive situations around the league today, so I don’t see much reason to use Marlins batters against the talented young Steven Matz.

Secondary Plays:

Milwaukee at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM EST

Milwaukee					Cincinnati
			Jimmy Nelson					Michael Lorenzen
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIL (-115)					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.285	0.843	0.364	18.2%	SP vs. Left	0.318	1.024	0.433	16.40%
SP vs. Right	0.222	0.608	0.273	21.3%	SP vs. Right	0.245	0.766	0.329	16.00%
Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs R		Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jimmy Nelson – For the year, Nelson has a solid stat line, but it has been a bit of a bumpy ride. There is a large discrepancy between his home and road numbers, with a 3.32 ERA and 24% strikeout rate at home vs a 4.32 ERA and 17% strikeout rate on the road. He is a tournament option but I see more risk than upside today. Pitcher Rating – 5.5

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 165 – SIERA: 4.01 – ERA: 3.70 – K%: 20.6% – BB%: 8.7% – HR/9: 0.87

Salaries: $8,100 FD, $7,800 DK

Michael Lorenzen – Lorenzen is one of the worst pitchers in the league, and has no place in a major league rotation, and certainly not on your DFS roster. Both his SIERA and actual ERA are in the 5’s. Pitcher Rating – 1.5

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 95 – SIERA: 5.19 – ERA: 5.66 – K%: 16.2% – BB%: 12.5% – HR/9: 1.51

Salaries: $4,700 FD, $4,000 DK

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers are a team to target today, facing Michael Lorenzen and his 5.19 SIERA. He has been brutal against left-handed batters, allowing a .433 wOBA with a 14.8% walk rate. He is moderately better against right-handed batters, but they can be used against him as part of a stack or in tournaments.

Elite Plays:

Adam Lind – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .386 – OBP: .388 – ISO: .224 – wRC+: 142
Ryan Braun – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .346 – OBP: .332 – ISO: .206 – wRC+: 114
Scooter Gennett – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .319 – OBP: .321 – ISO: .140 – wRC+: 96

Secondary Plays:

Khris Davis – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .365 – OBP: .339 – ISO: .256 – wRC+:128
Jonathan Lucroy – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .326 – OBP: .336 – ISO: .142 – wRC+: 101

Cincinnati

Jimmy Nelson has been hit hard by left-handed batters, allowing a .370 wOBA with a 9.6% walk rate. He also has a lower ground ball rate and higher hard hit rate against lefties. Joey Votto is an elite play, as he has been tearing the cover off the ball recently, with a .511 wOBA over the past month.

Elite Plays:

Joey Votto – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .438 – OBP: .458 – ISO: .263 – wRC+: 179

Secondary Plays:

Jay Bruce – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: 318. – OBP: .302 – ISO: .225 – wRC+: 97

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