MLB Grind Down: Thursday, September 17th - Page Two
Toronto at Atlanta – 7:10 PM EST
| Toronto | Atlanta | ||||||||
 | Marco Estrada |  | Matthew Wisler | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TOR (-225) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.214 | 0.681 | 0.298 | 0.181 | SP vs. Left | 0.342 | 1.067 | 0.45 | 0.09 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.232 | 0.728 | 0.319 | 0.206 | SP vs. Right | 0.246 | 0.689 | 0.293 | 0.209 |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP | Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Marco Estrada : FD: $8,700 — DK: $7,900
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 303.0 — SIERA: 4.27 — ERA: 3.83 — K%: 19.3% — BB%: 7.5% — HR/9: 1.5
Last 30 Days: IP: 28.2 — SIERA: 5.13 — ERA: 3.77 — K%: 15.8% — BB%: 7.9% — HR/9: 2.5
Atlanta Braves Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.298 (Rank: 28) — Strikeout Rate: 17.8% (Rank: 3)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.285 (Rank: 30) — Strikeout Rate: 18.2% (Rank: 6)
Pitches per PA: 3.77 (Rank: 23)
Analysis: Estrada has not been in great form recently, posting a 5.13 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 15.8% over the last month of play. The good news is that he gets to face a struggling Braves’ offense in a National League ballpark. Estrada is the largest favorite on the board tonight and the Braves have the third-lowest team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Estrada can be targeted in all league formats tonight.
Pitcher Rating: 73.4
Matthew Wisler : FD: $4,900 — DK: $4,800
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 80.1 — SIERA: 5.09 — ERA: 5.60 — K%: 14.8% — BB%: 9.3% — HR/9: 1.3
Last 30 Days: IP: 23.1 — SIERA: 5.72 — ERA: 7.71 — K%: 14.8% — BB%: 13.9% — HR/9: 1.5
Toronto Blue Jays Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.336 (Rank: 1) — Strikeout Rate: 18.9% (Rank: 7)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.348 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 19.8% (Rank: 9)
Pitches per PA: 3.85 (Rank: 10)
Analysis: Wisler has been very hittable in his stint in the majors, posting a 5.09 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 14.8%. He should be avoided tonight against the Blue Jays, who are ranked first in team wOBA and seventh in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Wisler is the largest underdog on the board for a reason.
Pitcher Rating: 27.8
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
The Blue Jays draw a terrific matchup tonight against Matt Wisler, who has given up a .450 wOBA to left-handed hitters. Ben Revere has been swinging a hot bat and deserves consideration as an elite play. Justin Smoak and Russell Martin are also on my radar.
Elite Plays:
Ben Revere : FD: $2,900 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 847 — wOBA: 0.310 — ISO: 0.063 — wRC+: 95
Last 30 Days: PA: 111 — wOBA: 0.392 — ISO: 0.059 — wRC+: 151
Secondary Plays:
Justin Smoak : FD: $2,900 — DK: $2,600
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 410 — wOBA: 0.297 — ISO: 0.191 — wRC+: 88
Last 30 Days: PA: 63 — wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.296 — wRC+: 125
Russell Martin : FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,600
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 716 — wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.181 — wRC+: 122
Last 30 Days: PA: 68 — wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.228 — wRC+: 104
Atlanta
The Braves have been the coldest offense in baseball over the last two weeks. While their matchup against Marco Estrada may not be the worst on the board, their lineup inspires little confidence at this point. Freddie Freeman and Daniel Castro are secondary options tonight at home.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Freddie Freeman : FD: $3,400 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 809 — wOBA: 0.389 — ISO: 0.202 — wRC+: 149
Last 30 Days: PA: 109 — wOBA: 0.374 — ISO: 0.107 — wRC+: 138
Daniel Castro : FD: $3,000 — DK: $2,000
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 34 — wOBA: 0.253 — ISO: 0.000 — wRC+: 56
Last 30 Days: PA: 24 — wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.174 — wRC+: 122
Houston at Texas – 8:05 PM EST
| Houston | Texas | ||||||||
 | Lance McCullers |  | Colby Lewis | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TEX (-110) | 9.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.207 | 0.569 | 0.254 | 0.288 | SP vs. Left | 0.287 | 0.793 | 0.343 | 0.148 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.25 | 0.74 | 0.322 | 0.193 | SP vs. Right | 0.264 | 0.77 | 0.332 | 0.199 |
| Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | Batter Splits | TEX vs R | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Lance McCullers : FD: $8,700 — DK: $9,900
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 101.2 — SIERA: 3.65 — ERA: 3.10 — K%: 24.2% — BB%: 8.5% — HR/9: 0.4
Last 30 Days: IP: 25.0 — SIERA: 3.79 — ERA: 2.88 — K%: 22.8% — BB%: 7.9% — HR/9: 0.4
Texas Rangers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 9) — Strikeout Rate: 19.2% (Rank: 9)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.306 (Rank: 24) — Strikeout Rate: 20.5% (Rank: 12)
Pitches per PA: 3.81 (Rank: 17)
Analysis: McCullers has been in good form over the last month of play, posting a 3.79 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.8%. The issue tonight is his matchup. The Rangers have owned the Astros this season and McCullers has to face them in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park. Marco Estrada is the preferred pitching option in this price range.
Pitcher Rating: 69.5
Colby Lewis : FD: $7,000 — DK: $8,000
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 354.1 — SIERA: 4.32 — ERA: 4.80 — K%: 17.1% — BB%: 5.7% — HR/9: 1.2
Last 30 Days: IP: 31.2 — SIERA: 5.46 — ERA: 4.26 — K%: 10.5% — BB%: 7.5% — HR/9: 0.9
Houston Astros Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.317 (Rank: 12) — Strikeout Rate: 24.1% (Rank: 30)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.339 (Rank: 11) — Strikeout Rate: 20.9% (Rank: 17)
Pitches per PA: 3.88 (Rank: 7)
Analysis: Lewis has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball over the last few seasons. He comes into tonight’s start in less than ideal form, posting a 5.46 SIERA with a low strikeout rate of 10.5%. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Astros, who have plenty of power in their lineup. Lewis should be avoided in all league formats tonight.
Pitcher Rating: 52.4
Batter Grind Down
Houston
The Astros are one of the top offenses to target tonight, as they square off against Colby Lewis in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park. Since the start of the 2014 season, Lewis has allowed a .332+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters.
Elite Plays:
Jose Altuve : FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,700
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 971 — wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.107 — wRC+: 109
Last 30 Days: PA: 124 — wOBA: 0.407 — ISO: 0.181 — wRC+: 162
Evan Gattis : FD: $2,900 — DK: $3,600
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 682 — wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.221 — wRC+: 108
Last 30 Days: PA: 106 — wOBA: 0.330 — ISO: 0.221 — wRC+: 109
Secondary Plays:
Carlos Correa : FD: $3,700 — DK: $5,000
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 240 — wOBA: 0.349 — ISO: 0.198 — wRC+: 122
Last 30 Days: PA: 99 — wOBA: 0.316 — ISO: 0.154 — wRC+: 99
George Springer : FD: $3,300 — DK: $4,500
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 485 — wOBA: 0.342 — ISO: 0.202 — wRC+: 119
Last 30 Days: PA: 42 — wOBA: 0.277 — ISO: 0.081 — wRC+: 72
Colby Rasmus : FD: $2,900 — DK: $3,700
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 585 — wOBA: 0.321 — ISO: 0.232 — wRC+: 103
Last 30 Days: PA: 87 — wOBA: 0.313 — ISO: 0.213 — wRC+: 97
Texas
The Rangers are looking to increase their lead against the Astros with a win at home tonight. While their matchup against Lance McCullers may not be ideal, Vegas is expecting a close, high-scoring game.
Elite Plays:
Prince Fielder : FD: $3,000 — DK: $4,500
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 487 — wOBA: 0.363 — ISO: 0.133 — wRC+: 126
Last 30 Days: PA: 112 — wOBA: 0.280 — ISO: 0.081 — wRC+: 68
Secondary Plays:
Shin-Soo Choo : FD: $3,300 — DK: $4,700
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 731 — wOBA: 0.356 — ISO: 0.176 — wRC+: 122
Last 30 Days: PA: 125 — wOBA: 0.393 — ISO: 0.157 — wRC+: 147
Adrian Beltre : FD: $2,900 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 810 — wOBA: 0.333 — ISO: 0.144 — wRC+: 107
Last 30 Days: PA: 118 — wOBA: 0.321 — ISO: 0.196 — wRC+: 97
Mitch Moreland : FD: $2,600 — DK: $4,400
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 463 — wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.192 — wRC+: 121
Last 30 Days: PA: 77 — wOBA: 0.313 — ISO: 0.192 — wRC+: 92
LA Angels at Minnesota – 8:10 PM EST
| LA Angels | Minnesota | ||||||||
 | Hector Santiago |  | Tommy Milone | ||||||
| LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| MIN (-130) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.226 | 0.604 | 0.272 | 0.195 | SP vs. Left | 0.23 | 0.646 | 0.286 | 0.155 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.233 | 0.727 | 0.318 | 0.21 | SP vs. Right | 0.269 | 0.773 | 0.336 | 0.157 |
| Batter Splits | LAA BvP | ANA vs L | Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Hector Santiago : FD: $7,600 — DK: $8,800
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 292.2 — SIERA: 4.39 — ERA: 3.44 — K%: 20.6% — BB%: 9.2% — HR/9: 1.2
Last 30 Days: IP: 30.2 — SIERA: 6.02 — ERA: 4.70 — K%: 16.3% — BB%: 15.6% — HR/9: 1.5
Minnesota Twins Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 12) — Strikeout Rate: 20.5% (Rank: 11)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 18) — Strikeout Rate: 21.7% (Rank: 23)
Pitches per PA: 3.83 (Rank: 13)
Analysis: Santiago has been in awful form recently, posting a 6.02 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16.3% over the last month of play. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Twins, who are ranked above the major league average in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season.
Pitcher Rating: 54.1
Tommy Milone : FD: $7,000 — DK: $7,800
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 233.2 — SIERA: 4.46 — ERA: 3.97 — K%: 15.6% — BB%: 6.8% — HR/9: 1.2
Last 30 Days: IP: 34.1 — SIERA: 3.95 — ERA: 3.67 — K%: 17.5% — BB%: 5.6% — HR/9: 0.5
LA Angels of Anaheim Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.286 (Rank: 29) — Strikeout Rate: 18.9% (Rank: 5)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.296 (Rank: 28) — Strikeout Rate: 18.4% (Rank: 7)
Pitches per PA: 3.79 (Rank: 18)
Analysis: Milone has been a serviceable starter for the Twins this season, but he is rarely on my radar in daily fantasy. He has a low strikeout rate with a mediocre SIERA. He draws a bad strikeout matchup against the Angels, who have the fifth-lowest strikeout rate against southpaws this season.
Pitcher Rating: 52.9
Batter Grind Down
LA Angels
The Angels draw a favorable matchup tonight against Tommy Milone, who has given up a .336 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. Mike Trout remains an elite play in the outfield, while Albert Pujols and C.J. Cron are in play as well.
Elite Plays:
Mike Trout : FD: $4,000 — DK: $4,900
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 324 — wOBA: 0.399 — ISO: 0.255 — wRC+: 164
Last 30 Days: PA: 109 — wOBA: 0.364 — ISO: 0.182 — wRC+: 138
Secondary Plays:
Albert Pujols : FD: $3,000 — DK: $3,900
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 312 — wOBA: 0.303 — ISO: 0.183 — wRC+: 97
Last 30 Days: PA: 104 — wOBA: 0.284 — ISO: 0.163 — wRC+: 83
C.J. Cron : FD: $2,200 — DK: $3,400
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 207 — wOBA: 0.313 — ISO: 0.171 — wRC+: 104
Last 30 Days: PA: 100 — wOBA: 0.363 — ISO: 0.263 — wRC+: 137
Minnesota
The Twins have one of the highest team totals on the board tonight, as they square off against the struggling Hector Santiago. Santiago is a fly-ball pitcher and the Twins hit a lot of home runs at home. Heavily target the right-handed hitters in this lineup.
Elite Plays:
Miguel Sano : FD: $4,200 — DK: $4,800
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 79 — wOBA: 0.396 — ISO: 0.243 — wRC+: 154
Last 30 Days: PA: 104 — wOBA: 0.422 — ISO: 0.341 — wRC+: 173
Brian Dozier : FD: $2,900 — DK: $4,700
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 396 — wOBA: 0.344 — ISO: 0.210 — wRC+: 119
Last 30 Days: PA: 124 — wOBA: 0.277 — ISO: 0.101 — wRC+: 72
Secondary Plays:
Aaron Hicks : FD: $3,100 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 176 — wOBA: 0.388 — ISO: 0.170 — wRC+: 150
Last 30 Days: PA: 65 — wOBA: 0.273 — ISO: 0.169 — wRC+: 69
Trevor Plouffe : FD: $2,800 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 342 — wOBA: 0.344 — ISO: 0.172 — wRC+: 119
Last 30 Days: PA: 109 — wOBA: 0.350 — ISO: 0.170 — wRC+: 122
St. Louis at Milwaukee – 8:10 PM EST
| St. Louis | Milwaukee | ||||||||
 | John Lackey |  | Jimmy Nelson | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| STL (-145) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.258 | 0.729 | 0.319 | 0.16 | SP vs. Left | 0.286 | 0.848 | 0.367 | 0.181 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.256 | 0.687 | 0.301 | 0.223 | SP vs. Right | 0.226 | 0.618 | 0.277 | 0.205 |
| Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs R | Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
John Lackey : FD: $8,600 — DK: $9,700
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 391.0 — SIERA: 3.85 — ERA: 3.36 — K%: 19.2% — BB%: 5.9% — HR/9: 1.0
Last 30 Days: IP: 33.1 — SIERA: 3.60 — ERA: 2.97 — K%: 23.2% — BB%: 7.8% — HR/9: 1.1
Milwaukee Brewers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 (Rank: 18) — Strikeout Rate: 20.6% (Rank: 20)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.349 (Rank: 7) — Strikeout Rate: 20.5% (Rank: 12)
Pitches per PA: 3.74 (Rank: 25)
Analysis: Lackey has pitched well recently, posting a 3.60 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.2% over the last month of play. He draws a decent matchup tonight against the Brewers, although he has to face them in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park. Lackey may not have a ton of upside, but he’s a very safe play tonight, as he should be able to put himself in line to pick up the win.
Pitcher Rating: 79.9
Jimmy Nelson : FD: $7,700 — DK: $8,500
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 244.2 — SIERA: 4.00 — ERA: 4.23 — K%: 19.4% — BB%: 8.0% — HR/9: 0.9
Last 30 Days: IP: 25.2 — SIERA: 5.01 — ERA: 5.96 — K%: 16.2% — BB%: 12.8% — HR/9: 1.1
St. Louis Cardinals Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.318 (Rank: 11) — Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (Rank: 13)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.300 (Rank: 27) — Strikeout Rate: 25.2% (Rank: 30)
Pitches per PA: 3.82 (Rank: 15)
Analysis: Nelson has not been sharp recently, posting a 5.01 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16.2% over the last month of play. While he does have good home splits in his career, he draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Cardinals, who are ranked above the major league average in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Nelson is a tournament play at best tonight.
Pitcher Rating: 64.3
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
The Cardinals see a sizable ballpark boost tonight playing in the hitter-friendly Miller Park. The left-handed hitters have the edge in this matchup, as Jimmy Nelson has allowed a .367 wOBA to hitters from that side of the plate over the last two seasons.
Elite Plays:
Matt Carpenter : FD: $3,100 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 895 — wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.156 — wRC+: 129
Last 30 Days: PA: 119 — wOBA: 0.315 — ISO: 0.167 — wRC+: 99
Secondary Plays:
Jason Heyward : FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,400
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 871 — wOBA: 0.359 — ISO: 0.149 — wRC+: 129
Last 30 Days: PA: 100 — wOBA: 0.387 — ISO: 0.182 — wRC+: 148
Jhonny Peralta : FD: $2,500 — DK: $3,400
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 900 — wOBA: 0.327 — ISO: 0.145 — wRC+: 108
Last 30 Days: PA: 93 — wOBA: 0.243 — ISO: 0.024 — wRC+: 50
Milwaukee
The Brewers draw a tough matchup tonight against John Lackey, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 wOBA over the last two seasons. Adam Lind and Scooter Gennett are in play, but they are both secondary options tonight.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Adam Lind : FD: $4,000 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 694 — wOBA: 0.396 — ISO: 0.204 — wRC+: 152
Last 30 Days: PA: 88 — wOBA: 0.393 — ISO: 0.176 — wRC+: 147
Scooter Gennett : FD: $2,200 — DK: $2,800
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 726 — wOBA: 0.333 — ISO: 0.150 — wRC+: 108
Last 30 Days: PA: 68 — wOBA: 0.332 — ISO: 0.134 — wRC+: 105