MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, September 29th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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Toronto at Baltimore – 7:05 PM EST
| Toronto | Baltimore | ||||||||
 | Marcus Stroman |  | Miguel Gonzalez | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TOR (-144) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.226 | 0.626 | 0.279 | 19.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.266 | 0.799 | 0.348 | 16.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.268 | 0.620 | 0.278 | 20.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.255 | 0.743 | 0.327 | 17.80% |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Marcus Stroman : FD: $8,300 — DK: $7,700
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 149.2 — SIERA: 3.26 — ERA: 3.43 — K%: 19.9% — BB%: 5.3% — HR/9: 0.5
Last 30 Days: IP: 19.0 — SIERA: 3.77 — ERA: 1.89 — K%: 13.7% — BB%: 5.5% — HR/9: 0.5
Baltimore Orioles Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.322 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 22.0% (Rank: 28)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.253 (Rank: 30) — Strikeout Rate: 22.5% (Rank: 24)
Pitches per PA: 3.81 (Rank: 17)
Analysis: Stroman has been terrific this season, posting a 3.77 SIERA and a 1.89 ERA. His strikeout rate isn’t as high as it was last season, but that is likely due to a small sample size. He draws a favorable strikeout matchup against the Orioles who have the third-highest k-rate against right-handed pitching this season. Stroman is not in a good enough spot to be considered an SP1, but he can be used as an SP2 tonight against the Orioles.
Pitcher Rating: 75.0
Miguel Gonzalez : FD: $6,700 — DK: $5,300
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 300.0 — SIERA: 4.44 — ERA: 3.99 — K%: 17.0% — BB%: 7.8% — HR/9: 1.5
Last 30 Days: IP: 5.1 — SIERA: 5.07 — ERA: 6.75 — K%: 11.5% — BB%: 7.7% — HR/9: 0.0
Toronto Blue Jays Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.339 (Rank: 1) — Strikeout Rate: 18.8% (Rank: 5)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.362 (Rank: 2) — Strikeout Rate: 18.5% (Rank: 5)
Pitches per PA: 3.86 (Rank: 9)
Analysis: Gonzalez is an easy pitcher to avoid in DFS. Over the last two seasons, he has a 4.44 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 17.0%. He draws a favorable matchup against the Blue Jays, who are ranked first in team wOBA and fifth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Gonzalez can safely be avoided in all league formats tonight.
Pitcher Rating: 42.2
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
The Blue Jays have one of the highest team totals on the board tonight, as they square off against Miguel Gonzalez in Camden Yards. Since the start of last season, Gonzalez has allowed a .327+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters.
Elite Plays:
Edwin Encarnacion : FD: $4,800 — DK: $5,100
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 918 — wOBA: 0.388 — ISO: 0.283 — wRC+: 149
Last 30 Days: PA: 110 — wOBA: 0.441 — ISO: 0.341 — wRC+: 185
Jose Bautista : FD: $4,700 — DK: $5,200
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 1051 — wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.265 — wRC+: 151
Last 30 Days: PA: 121 — wOBA: 0.422 — ISO: 0.313 — wRC+: 171
Secondary Plays:
Russell Martin : FD: $3,100 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 747 — wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.189 — wRC+: 122
Last 30 Days: PA: 77 — wOBA: 0.370 — ISO: 0.358 — wRC+: 135
Ben Revere : FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,900
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 886 — wOBA: 0.309 — ISO: 0.065 — wRC+: 93
Last 30 Days: PA: 124 — wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.086 — wRC+: 112
Baltimore
The Orioles draw a difficult matchup against Marcus Stroman, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 wOBA over the last two seasons. The Orioles do get to face him at home, but Manny Machado and Gerardo Parra are both secondary plays at their respective positions.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Manny Machado : FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,500
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 761 — wOBA: 0.371 — ISO: 0.195 — wRC+: 136
Last 30 Days: PA: 121 — wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.157 — wRC+: 119
Gerardo Parra : FD: $2,200 — DK: $3,500
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 913 — wOBA: 0.325 — ISO: 0.148 — wRC+: 102
Last 30 Days: PA: 93 — wOBA: 0.191 — ISO: 0.057 — wRC+: 10
St. Louis at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM EST
| St. Louis | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
 | Michael Wacha |  | Charlie Morton | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| PIT (-113) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.215 | 0.592 | 0.266 | 19.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.263 | 0.758 | 0.335 | 18.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.245 | 0.699 | 0.307 | 21.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.243 | 0.671 | 0.298 | 17.70% |
| Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs R | Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Michael Wacha : FD: $8,500 — DK: $9,100
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 284.1 — SIERA: 3.91 — ERA: 3.17 — K%: 20.4% — BB%: 7.3% — HR/9: 0.7
Last 30 Days: IP: 20.0 — SIERA: 5.43 — ERA: 6.75 — K%: 16.1% — BB%: 15.1% — HR/9: 2.3
Pittsburgh Pirates Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 15) — Strikeout Rate: 20.5% (Rank: 16)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.310 (Rank: 21) — Strikeout Rate: 22.2% (Rank: 17)
Pitches per PA: 3.79 (Rank: 22)
Analysis: Wacha has been in surprisingly bad form recently, posting a 5.43 SIERA with a walk rate of 15.1% over the last month of play. While his matchup against the Pirates is mediocre, he is a bit overpriced given his current form. There are better pitching options on the schedule tonight.
Pitcher Rating: 63.5
Charlie Morton : FD: $6,000 — DK: $6,100
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 284.1 — SIERA: 3.80 — ERA: 4.08 — K%: 18.2% — BB%: 8.0% — HR/9: 0.7
Last 30 Days: IP: 26.1 — SIERA: 4.05 — ERA: 5.81 — K%: 17.2% — BB%: 8.2% — HR/9: 1.4
St. Louis Cardinals Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 9) — Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (Rank: 11)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.341 (Rank: 5) — Strikeout Rate: 21.9% (Rank: 15)
Pitches per PA: 3.83 (Rank: 14)
Analysis: Morton has also been in less than stellar form over the last month of play, posting a 4.05 SIERA (5.81 ERA) with a strikeout rate of only 17.2%. He is also playing for a team that pinch hits for a pitcher with a one-hitter through six innings after throwing only 56 pitches (see: J.A. Happ). The Pirates need to win this game to have any chance at winning the division, but I’m not sold on either pitcher as a viable DFS play tonight.
Pitcher Rating: 64.3
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
The Cardinals are small underdogs in a game that features a total of only 7.0 runs. Even though Charlie Morton has struggled against left-handed hitters, the low team total puts the Cardinals’ hitters as secondary plays tonight on the road.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Matt Carpenter : FD: $4,200 — DK: $4,600
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 934 — wOBA: 0.362 — ISO: 0.168 — wRC+: 132
Last 30 Days: PA: 125 — wOBA: 0.427 — ISO: 0.339 — wRC+: 175
Jason Heyward : FD: $3,100 — DK: $3,900
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 907 — wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.150 — wRC+: 130
Last 30 Days: PA: 116 — wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.121 — wRC+: 135
Pittsburgh
Even though Michael Wacha has not fared well in his recent outings, he has still held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 wOBA over the last two seasons. There aren’t any elite plays in this lineup tonight, but Andrew McCutchen and Gregory Polanco are both secondary options in the outfield.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Andrew McCutchen : FD: $3,900 — DK: $4,400
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 1057 — wOBA: 0.395 — ISO: 0.213 — wRC+: 156
Last 30 Days: PA: 122 — wOBA: 0.333 — ISO: 0.104 — wRC+: 113
Gregory Polanco : FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 714 — wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.129 — wRC+: 105
Last 30 Days: PA: 113 — wOBA: 0.227 — ISO: 0.093 — wRC+: 41
Boston at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM EST
| Boston | NY Yankees | ||||||||
 | Rick Porcello |  | Michael Pineda | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| NYY (-190) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.276 | 0.776 | 0.336 | 16.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.241 | 0.661 | 0.286 | 21.80% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.272 | 0.714 | 0.313 | 18.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.253 | 0.687 | 0.297 | 23.10% |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Rick Porcello : FD: $7,700 — DK: $6,600
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 361.2 — SIERA: 3.86 — ERA: 4.13 — K%: 17.4% — BB%: 5.1% — HR/9: 1.1
Last 30 Days: IP: 35.1 — SIERA: 3.10 — ERA: 3.57 — K%: 25.2% — BB%: 6.1% — HR/9: 1.0
New York Yankees Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.322 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 19.7% (Rank: 12)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.294 (Rank: 27) — Strikeout Rate: 22.4% (Rank: 22)
Pitches per PA: 3.91 (Rank: 3)
Analysis: Porcello has been in great form recently, posting a 3.10 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.2% over the last month of play. The issue tonight is his matchup against the Yankees, who are ranked third in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Porcello is a sizable underdog that can safely be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.
Pitcher Rating: 59.4
Michael Pineda : FD: $8,800 — DK: $8,800
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 227.1 — SIERA: 3.21 — ERA: 3.29 — K%: 22.5% — BB%: 3.1% — HR/9: 1.0
Last 30 Days: IP: 28.2 — SIERA: 3.43 — ERA: 3.14 — K%: 23.1% — BB%: 4.3% — HR/9: 1.6
Boston Red Sox Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 9) — Strikeout Rate: 17.6% (Rank: 2)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.301 (Rank: 23) — Strikeout Rate: 21.2% (Rank: 12)
Pitches per PA: 3.96 (Rank: 2)
Analysis: Pineda has pitched well over the last month of play, posting a 3.43 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.1%. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Red Sox, who are ranked ninth in team wOBA and second in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. They also average the second-most pitches per plate appearance. Pineda is in play here, but he’s not the safest option on the board.
Pitcher Rating: 84.4
Batter Grind Down
Boston
The Red Sox draw a difficult matchup tonight against Michael Pineda, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA. David Ortiz and Mookie Betts have both been swinging hot bats, but they are secondary options at their respective positions.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
David Ortiz : FD: $4,300 — DK: $4,700
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 827 — wOBA: 0.386 — ISO: 0.281 — wRC+: 145
Last 30 Days: PA: 102 — wOBA: 0.439 — ISO: 0.420 — wRC+: 180
Mookie Betts : FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,700
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 617 — wOBA: 0.349 — ISO: 0.175 — wRC+: 118
Last 30 Days: PA: 119 — wOBA: 0.434 — ISO: 0.215 — wRC+: 177
NY Yankees
The Yankees draw a decent matchup against Rick Porcello, who has allowed a .336 wOBA to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons. Porcello has been in better form recently, but we shouldn’t be hesitant to target hitters against him in a hitter-friendly ballpark.
Elite Plays:
Jacoby Ellsbury : FD: $2,700 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 752 — wOBA: 0.307 — ISO: 0.121 — wRC+: 94
Last 30 Days: PA: 116 — wOBA: 0.236 — ISO: 0.056 — wRC+: 43
Secondary Plays:
Brian McCann : FD: $3,500 — DK: $3,700
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 784 — wOBA: 0.306 — ISO: 0.183 — wRC+: 93
Last 30 Days: PA: 102 — wOBA: 0.302 — ISO: 0.122 — wRC+: 88
Brett Gardner : FD: $2,600 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 889 — wOBA: 0.333 — ISO: 0.175 — wRC+: 111
Last 30 Days: PA: 106 — wOBA: 0.276 — ISO: 0.140 — wRC+: 70
NY Mets at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM EST
| NY Mets | Philadelphia | ||||||||
 | Bartolo Colon |  | David Buchanan | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| NYM (-180) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.270 | 0.706 | 0.306 | 16.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.274 | 0.768 | 0.339 | 10.70% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.273 | 0.752 | 0.325 | 18.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.311 | 0.870 | 0.377 | 15.00% |
| Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Bartolo Colon : FD: $7,900 — DK: $7,000
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 391.0 — SIERA: 3.90 — ERA: 4.12 — K%: 17.3% — BB%: 3.3% — HR/9: 1.1
Last 30 Days: IP: 36.2 — SIERA: 4.22 — ERA: 1.96 — K%: 12.9% — BB%: 2.9% — HR/9: 0.5
Philadelphia Phillies Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.295 (Rank: 30) — Strikeout Rate: 20.8% (Rank: 19)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.267 (Rank: 29) — Strikeout Rate: 27.9% (Rank: 30)
Pitches per PA: 3.74 (Rank: 25)
Analysis: Colon may have a 1.96 ERA over the last month of play, but his peripheral statistics during that stretch are actually worse than they have been over the last two seasons. The good news is that he gets to face a Phillies’ offense that is ranked 29th in team wOBA and 30th in strikeout rate over the last two weeks of play. Colon could be a cheap source for a win and given the fact that the Phillies average the sixth-fewest pitches per plate appearance, he should be able to pitch deep into this game.
Pitcher Rating: 70.2
David Buchanan : FD: $4,300 — DK: $4,400
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 181.0 — SIERA: 4.57 — ERA: 5.22 — K%: 13.0% — BB%: 7.2% — HR/9: 1.1
Last 30 Days: IP: 14.1 — SIERA: 4.44 — ERA: 4.40 — K%: 12.3% — BB%: 7.7% — HR/9: 1.9
New York Mets Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.310 (Rank: 20) — Strikeout Rate: 19.9% (Rank: 14)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.325 (Rank: 12) — Strikeout Rate: 21.7% (Rank: 13)
Pitches per PA: 3.88 (Rank: 6)
Analysis: Buchanan has been a below-average major league starter over the last two seasons, posting a 4.57 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 13.0%. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Mets, who have a much-improved offense these days. Buchanan is one of the largest underdogs on the board and he should be avoided in all league formats.
Pitcher Rating: 32.9
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
The Mets draw a favorable matchup against David Buchanan and they get to face him in the home run friendly Citizens Bank Park. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play here, as Buchanan has allowed a .339+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.
Elite Plays:
Yoenis Cespedes : FD: $4,400 — DK: $4,800
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 998 — wOBA: 0.362 — ISO: 0.227 — wRC+: 133
Last 30 Days: PA: 112 — wOBA: 0.416 — ISO: 0.381 — wRC+: 171
Daniel Murphy : FD: $3,900 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 872 — wOBA: 0.336 — ISO: 0.152 — wRC+: 118
Last 30 Days: PA: 90 — wOBA: 0.354 — ISO: 0.247 — wRC+: 129
Curtis Granderson : FD: $3,500 — DK: $4,500
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 999 — wOBA: 0.350 — ISO: 0.191 — wRC+: 127
Last 30 Days: PA: 109 — wOBA: 0.374 — ISO: 0.176 — wRC+: 143
Secondary Plays:
Lucas Duda : FD: $3,800 — DK: $4,700
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 882 — wOBA: 0.372 — ISO: 0.249 — wRC+: 142
Last 30 Days: PA: 66 — wOBA: 0.399 — ISO: 0.333 — wRC+: 160
David Wright : FD: $3,500 — DK: $4,600
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 572 — wOBA: 0.295 — ISO: 0.100 — wRC+: 90
Last 30 Days: PA: 98 — wOBA: 0.374 — ISO: 0.184 — wRC+: 142
Travis d’Arnaud : FD: $3,000 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 520 — wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.183 — wRC+: 110
Last 30 Days: PA: 86 — wOBA: 0.315 — ISO: 0.154 — wRC+: 103
Philadelphia
The Phillies’ offense leaves much to be desired at this point of the season. They have all but given up on baseball and are likely planning their offseason vacations. Andres Blanco is a decent punt play on DraftKings ($2,400), but the rest of this lineup should be avoided against Bartolo Colon.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Andres Blanco : FD: $3,000 — DK: $2,400
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B/SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 187 — wOBA: 0.340 — ISO: 0.206 — wRC+: 114
Last 30 Days: PA: 81 — wOBA: 0.308 — ISO: 0.135 — wRC+: 92
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM EST
| Chicago Cubs | Cincinnati | ||||||||
 | Dan Haren |  | Josh Smith | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CHC (-127) | 9.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.253 | 0.771 | 0.331 | 20.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.359 | 1.192 | 0.492 | 14.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.244 | 0.706 | 0.305 | 15.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.268 | 0.769 | 0.336 | 18.50% |
| Batter Splits | CHC vs R | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Dan Haren : FD: $7,200 — DK: $6,200
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 360.0 — SIERA: 4.09 — ERA: 3.93 — K%: 17.9% — BB%: 4.9% — HR/9: 1.5
Last 30 Days: IP: 19.1 — SIERA: 4.82 — ERA: 3.26 — K%: 18.3% — BB%: 7.3% — HR/9: 0.9
Cincinnati Reds Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.310 (Rank: 20) — Strikeout Rate: 19.7% (Rank: 12)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.317 (Rank: 16) — Strikeout Rate: 25.3% (Rank: 29)
Pitches per PA: 3.79 (Rank: 20)
Analysis: Haren is not a pitcher that I typically consider in DFS. He has an average SIERA and he has allowed 1.5 home runs per nine innings. He draws an average matchup tonight against the Reds, but he has to face them in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. He should be avoided in what is expected to be one of the highest scoring games of the night.
Pitcher Rating: 57.4
Josh Smith : FD: $5,000 — DK: $4,500
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 23.2 — SIERA: 5.40 — ERA: 7.23 — K%: 16.5% — BB%: 13.9% — HR/9: 1.5
Last 30 Days: IP: 11.1 — SIERA: 3.73 — ERA: 7.15 — K%: 20.8% — BB%: 5.7% — HR/9: 1.6
Chicago Cubs Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.317 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 23.9% (Rank: 30)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 17) — Strikeout Rate: 23.3% (Rank: 27)
Pitches per PA: 3.98 (Rank: 1)
Analysis: Smith has not had a ton of success at the major league level. In his first 23.2 innings of action, he has a 5.40 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16.5% and a walk rate of 13.9%. He is a small underdog tonight against the Cubs in a game that features a total of 9.0 runs. There is more risk than potential reward with Smith tonight.
Pitcher Rating: 44.8
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs have one of the highest team totals on the board tonight, as they square off against Josh Smith in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Smith is a right-handed pitcher that has allowed a .336+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters.
Elite Plays:
Kris Bryant : FD: $4,500 — DK: $5,200
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 478 — wOBA: 0.386 — ISO: 0.226 — wRC+: 145
Last 30 Days: PA: 114 — wOBA: 0.440 — ISO: 0.257 — wRC+: 182
Dexter Fowler : FD: $2,900 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 899 — wOBA: 0.327 — ISO: 0.149 — wRC+: 107
Last 30 Days: PA: 123 — wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.167 — wRC+: 104
Secondary Plays:
Anthony Rizzo : FD: $4,400 — DK: $5,200
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 925 — wOBA: 0.387 — ISO: 0.255 — wRC+: 147
Last 30 Days: PA: 122 — wOBA: 0.336 — ISO: 0.178 — wRC+: 111
Kyle Schwarber : FD: $3,700 — DK: $4,400
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: C/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 192 — wOBA: 0.412 — ISO: 0.306 — wRC+: 163
Last 30 Days: PA: 77 — wOBA: 0.309 — ISO: 0.203 — wRC+: 93
Cincinnati
The Reds’ offense inspires little confidence at this point of the season, but they draw a favorable matchup tonight against Dan Haren, who continues to struggle to keep the ball in the park. Joey Votto is an elite play here, as he has a .477 wOBA and a .230 ISO over the last month of play.
Elite Plays:
Joey Votto : FD: $4,800 — DK: $5,000
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 675 — wOBA: 0.405 — ISO: 0.197 — wRC+: 157
Last 30 Days: PA: 118 — wOBA: 0.477 — ISO: 0.230 — wRC+: 205
Secondary Plays:
Jay Bruce : FD: $2,900 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 862 — wOBA: 0.312 — ISO: 0.195 — wRC+: 94
Last 30 Days: PA: 116 — wOBA: 0.315 — ISO: 0.259 — wRC+: 95
Todd Frazier : FD: $2,600 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 1B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 1014 — wOBA: 0.346 — ISO: 0.204 — wRC+: 117
Last 30 Days: PA: 112 — wOBA: 0.330 — ISO: 0.224 — wRC+: 105