MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, August 12th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-08-13 13:56:54

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: For more info on DFS MLB scoring systems on the two largest sites, check out our DraftKings review and FanDuel review.

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Baltimore at Seattle – 3:40 PM EST

Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
Baltimore					Seattle
			Kevin Gausman					Hisashi Iwakuma
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SEA (-129)					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.247	0.691	0.306	18.6%	SP vs. Left	0.271	0.719	0.314	18.70%
SP vs. Right	0.255	0.700	0.306	19.2%	SP vs. Right	0.215	0.611	0.267	24.10%
Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R		Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Kevin Gausman : FD: $6,300 — DK: $6,400

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 166.2 — SIERA: 4.03 — ERA: 3.89 — K%: 18.8% — BB%: 7.4% — HR/9: 0.8
Last 30 Days: IP: 26.1 — SIERA: 3.99 — ERA: 4.10 — K%: 17.8% — BB%: 4.7% — HR/9: 1.4

Seattle Mariners Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.304 (Rank: 22) — Strikeout Rate: 21.7% (Rank: 25)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.328 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 20.9% (Rank: 18)
Pitchers per PA: 3.87 (Rank: 9)

Analysis: Happy Wednesday Grinders! As always, we have a split slate set up on Wednesday, so we will cover the day games first. Gausman draws the start for the Orioles, as they take on the Mariners in Seattle. Gausman has decent stuff as a pitcher, but his strikeout rate (18.8%) over the last two seasons is just below the major league average. The good news for Gausman is that the Mariners strikeout at a high clip, striking out at the sixth-highest rate against right-handed pitching. He’s not the worst pitching option in the early slate, but he’s not a pitcher that is on my radar either.

Pitcher Rating: 46.5

Hisashi Iwakuma : FD: $8,100 — DK: $10,400

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 242.1 — SIERA: 3.03 — ERA: 3.75 — K%: 21.3% — BB%: 3.1% — HR/9: 1.2
Last 30 Days: IP: 34.0 — SIERA: 2.60 — ERA: 3.71 — K%: 23.1% — BB%: 3.0% — HR/9: 0.8

Baltimore Orioles Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 9) — Strikeout Rate: 22.2% (Rank: 28)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.337 (Rank: 10) — Strikeout Rate: 20.2% (Rank: 12)
Pitchers per PA: 3.83 (Rank: 13)

Analysis: Don’t look now, but it appears that Iwakuma has finally discovered some good form. Over the last month of play, he has a 2.60 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.1%. He also has a K:BB ratio that is close to 8:1 during that stretch. We can expect him to throw a ton of strikes today, which could serve him well against an Orioles’ offense that has the third-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. There is certainly some risk against a talented lineup of the Orioles, but they are a different offense away from Camden Yards and the strikeout potential more than makes up for the risk.

Pitcher Rating: 70.8

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

As I mentioned above, the Orioles’ offense isn’t nearly as potent on the road as they are at home. On the season, they are ranked 12th in team wOBA and 28th in team strikeout rate in road games. They can safely be avoided tonight against Hisashi Iwakuma, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 wOBA over the last two seasons.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

NONE

Seattle

The Mariners may be favorites today against Kevin Gausman and the Orioles, but the total for the game is set at only 7.0 runs, which isn’t all that appealing. Gausman has given up identical splits to both left and right-handed hitters over the last two seasons, so hitters from both sides of the plate are in play. Nelson Cruz is not in the lineup today, which means there aren’t any elite plays in this lineup.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Robinson Cano : FD: $3,700 — DK: $3,800

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 323 — wOBA: 0.338 — ISO: 0.179 — wRC+: 120
Last 30 Days: PA: 97 — wOBA: 0.405 — ISO: 0.276 — wRC+: 166

Seth Smith : FD: $2,500 — DK: $3,000

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 300 — wOBA: 0.332 — ISO: 0.189 — wRC+: 115
Last 30 Days: PA: 65 — wOBA: 0.280 — ISO: 0.182 — wRC+: 79

Mark Trumbo : FD: $2,200 — DK: $3,100

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 1B/OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 257 — wOBA: 0.298 — ISO: 0.161 — wRC+: 87
Last 30 Days: PA: 83 — wOBA: 0.307 — ISO: 0.133 — wRC+: 98

Philadelphia at Arizona – 3:40 PM EST

Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
Philadelphia					Arizona
			Aaron Nola					Chase Anderson
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			ARI (-160)					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.275	0.785	0.339	7.1%	SP vs. Left	0.237	0.711	0.313	17.80%
SP vs. Right	0.189	0.605	0.266	31.0%	SP vs. Right	0.282	0.791	0.344	19.70%
Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R		Batter Splits			ARI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Aaron Nola : FD: $6,100 — DK: $9,600

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 24.2 — SIERA: 3.45 — ERA: 3.65 — K%: 21.0% — BB%: 5.0% — HR/9: 1.5
Last 30 Days: IP: 24.2 — SIERA: 3.45 — ERA: 3.65 — K%: 21.0% — BB%: 5.0% — HR/9: 1.5

Arizona Diamondbacks Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.318 (Rank: 10) — Strikeout Rate: 20.9% (Rank: 22)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.344 (Rank: 7) — Strikeout Rate: 21.2% (Rank: 19)
Pitchers per PA: 3.72 (Rank: 28)

Analysis: Nola is making his fifth career major league start tonight and with how awful the Phillies’ starting rotation has been, you could argue that he is the ace of their staff for the rest of the season. In his first 24.2 major league innings, he has a 3.45 SIERA with a respectable strikeout rate of 21.0%. The biggest issue here is that he is a rookie pitcher playing on the road against a very capable Diamondbacks’ offense. We have seen the type of production that Arizona can put up at home, which makes Nola a very risky play today.

Pitcher Rating: 54.0

Chase Anderson : FD: $6,500 — DK: $7,400

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 226.1 — SIERA: 4.02 — ERA: 4.06 — K%: 18.8% — BB%: 7.2% — HR/9: 1.1
Last 30 Days: IP: 10.2 — SIERA: 3.23 — ERA: 5.91 — K%: 21.3% — BB%: 6.4% — HR/9: 0.0

Philadelphia Phillies Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.295 (Rank: 28) — Strikeout Rate: 19.4% (Rank: 11)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.317 (Rank: 15) — Strikeout Rate: 22.5% (Rank: 26)
Pitchers per PA: 3.71 (Rank: 29)

Analysis: Anderson has been a serviceable starter for the Diamondbacks over the last two seasons, posting a 4.02 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18.8% over the last two seasons. He draws a decent matchup against the Phillies, but he has to face them at home in the hitter-friendly Chase Field. The Phillies had been scoring runs in bunches prior to this series and given the ballpark, they could very well get back on track today. Pitching options are limited in the early slate though, which puts Anderson in play as an SP2.

Pitcher Rating: 58.4

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies’ offense has cooled off in this series, but they draw another favorable matchup in a hitter-friendly ballpark tonight. Since the start of the 2014 season, Chase Anderson has given up a .313+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. Maikel Franco exited last night’s game after being hit by a pitch. He would be a strong target here, but he likely won’t be in the lineup. Instead, load up on the cheap left-handed bats from the Phillies.

Elite Plays:

Cesar Hernandez : FD: $3,300 — DK: $3,500

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/SS
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 231 — wOBA: 0.311 — ISO: 0.089 — wRC+: 97
Last 30 Days: PA: 97 — wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: 0.111 — wRC+: 113

Chase Utley : FD: $2,400 — DK: $3,100

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 187 — wOBA: 0.234 — ISO: 0.107 — wRC+: 44
Last 30 Days: PA: 14 — wOBA: 0.396 — ISO: 0.231 — wRC+: 155

Secondary Plays:

Ryan Howard : FD: $3,500 — DK: $4,100

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 312 — wOBA: 0.350 — ISO: 0.246 — wRC+: 123
Last 30 Days: PA: 90 — wOBA: 0.358 — ISO: 0.207 — wRC+: 129

Odubel Herrera : FD: $3,100 — DK: $3,700

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 2B/OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 272 — wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: 0.144 — wRC+: 113
Last 30 Days: PA: 74 — wOBA: 0.410 — ISO: 0.171 — wRC+: 165

Arizona

The Diamondbacks have feasted on Phillies’ pitching in this series, scoring 26 runs in the first two games. They draw another favorable matchup today against Aaron Nola, who is a young pitcher that is only making his fifth career start. The left-handed hitters have the edge in today’s matchup against Nola, but Paul Goldschmidt remains an elite play at first base. He has a .410 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Elite Plays:

Paul Goldschmidt : FD: $4,600 — DK: $5,600

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 385 — wOBA: 0.410 — ISO: 0.221 — wRC+: 161
Last 30 Days: PA: 105 — wOBA: 0.374 — ISO: 0.145 — wRC+: 136

Jake Lamb : FD: $2,700 — DK: $3,700

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 197 — wOBA: 0.340 — ISO: 0.154 — wRC+: 112
Last 30 Days: PA: 89 — wOBA: 0.352 — ISO: 0.185 — wRC+: 121

Ender Inciarte : FD: $2,600 — DK: $3,900

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 265 — wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.123 — wRC+: 110
Last 30 Days: PA: 98 — wOBA: 0.334 — ISO: 0.126 — wRC+: 108

Secondary Plays:

A.J. Pollock : FD: $4,200 — DK: $4,900

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 362 — wOBA: 0.361 — ISO: 0.164 — wRC+: 127
Last 30 Days: PA: 98 — wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.165 — wRC+: 147

Welington Castillo : FD: $3,800 — DK: $3,800

Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 172 — wOBA: 0.358 — ISO: 0.268 — wRC+: 126
Last 30 Days: PA: 73 — wOBA: 0.485 — ISO: 0.453 — wRC+: 212

Cincinnati at San Diego – 3:40 PM EST

Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
Cincinnati					San Diego
			Raisel Iglesias					James Shields
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SDP (-130)					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.343	0.850	0.374	12.3%	SP vs. Left	0.264	0.769	0.336	19.70%
SP vs. Right	0.170	0.599	0.267	33.1%	SP vs. Right	0.237	0.692	0.303	24.20%
Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs R		Batter Splits			SD vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Raisel Iglesias : FD: $6,600 — DK: $8,700

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 53.1 — SIERA: 3.60 — ERA: 4.72 — K%: 22.8% — BB%: 6.9% — HR/9: 0.8
Last 30 Days: IP: 24.1 — SIERA: 3.26 — ERA: 3.33 — K%: 25.7% — BB%: 6.9% — HR/9: 1.1

San Diego Padres Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.294 (Rank: 29) — Strikeout Rate: 21.8% (Rank: 26)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.300 (Rank: 21) — Strikeout Rate: 21.2% (Rank: 19)
Pitchers per PA: 3.83 (Rank: 12)

Analysis: Iglesias has electric stuff in his repertoire and he is finally starting to look comfortable on the mound. In the last month of play, he has a 3.26 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.7%. Even though the Padres’ offense has been red-hot in the first two games of this series, they are still ranked 29th in team wOBA and 26th in team strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Iglesias is a sizable underdog here, but the strikeout potential is there. This is also a matchup that should suit him well, as the Padres best hitters are right-handed and he has held righties to a .267 wOBA.

Pitcher Rating: 59.0

James Shields : FD: $8,900 — DK: $10,900

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 373.1 — SIERA: 3.48 — ERA: 3.42 — K%: 21.9% — BB%: 6.1% — HR/9: 1.1
Last 30 Days: IP: 29.2 — SIERA: 3.55 — ERA: 2.73 — K%: 23.6% — BB%: 8.1% — HR/9: 1.5

Cincinnati Reds Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.309 (Rank: 15) — Strikeout Rate: 18.9% (Rank: 7)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.287 (Rank: 26) — Strikeout Rate: 22.0% (Rank: 25)
Pitchers per PA: 3.75 (Rank: 24)

Analysis: Shields will be a popular play in the early slate of games. For my money, I prefer Hisashi Iwakuma in a better strikeout matchup against the Orioles. Shields has rediscovered that early season form recently though, posting a 3.55 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.6% over the last month of play. He has a pitcher-friendly ballpark at his back, but the Reds have the seventh-lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Shields is a safe play, but again, I’m siding with Iwakuma in the early slate.

Pitcher Rating: 68.6

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

James Shields may be an elite pitcher in the majors, but his splits against left and right-handed hitters aren’t all that impressive. Since the start of the 2014 season, he has given up a .336 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .303 wOBA to right-handed hitters. We shouldn’t go out of our way to target the Reds in Petco Park, but their matchup against Shields isn’t as bad as it may seem.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Joey Votto : FD: $3,500 — DK: $4,000

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 337 — wOBA: 0.418 — ISO: 0.243 — wRC+: 167
Last 30 Days: PA: 109 — wOBA: 0.508 — ISO: 0.250 — wRC+: 229

Todd Frazier : FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,700

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 1B/3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 356 — wOBA: 0.340 — ISO: 0.223 — wRC+: 114
Last 30 Days: PA: 99 — wOBA: 0.219 — ISO: 0.120 — wRC+: 30

San Diego

The Padres draw an interesting matchup against Raisel Iglesias. We have a surging offense that is facing a hot pitcher. I typically side with the pitcher in these scenarios, especially if that offense is that of the Padres. Justin Upton and Matt Kemp both deserve a look as tournament options, but again, Iglesias has held right-handed hitters to a .276 wOBA.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Justin Upton : FD: $3,400 — DK: $4,300

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 356 — wOBA: 0.364 — ISO: 0.221 — wRC+: 138
Last 30 Days: PA: 81 — wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.309 — wRC+: 140

Matt Kemp : FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,600

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 376 — wOBA: 0.301 — ISO: 0.133 — wRC+: 94
Last 30 Days: PA: 100 — wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.149 — wRC+: 126

Houston at San Francisco – 3:45 PM EST

Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
Houston					San Francisco
			Scott Feldman					Chris Heston
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SFG (-140)					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.266	0.711	0.310	13.0%	SP vs. Left	0.266	0.756	0.332	13.90%
SP vs. Right	0.269	0.764	0.334	14.7%	SP vs. Right	0.230	0.594	0.266	22.50%
Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs R		Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SF vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Scott Feldman : FD: $6,800 — DK: $7,600

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 265.0 — SIERA: 4.31 — ERA: 3.97 — K%: 13.8% — BB%: 6.2% — HR/9: 0.9
Last 30 Days: IP: 24.2 — SIERA: 4.78 — ERA: 3.65 — K%: 9.6% — BB%: 4.8% — HR/9: 1.5

San Francisco Giants Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.327 (Rank: 4) — Strikeout Rate: 17.7% (Rank: 4)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 17) — Strikeout Rate: 16.9% (Rank: 5)
Pitchers per PA: 3.74 (Rank: 25)

Analysis: Feldman has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any qualified starter this season and today he has to face a Giants’ offense that has the fourth-lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Even if Feldman pitches well today, his low strikeout total will keep him from producing a good fantasy score. And him pitching well is a big IF. He can safely be avoided in all league formats.

Pitcher Rating: 34.2

Chris Heston : FD: $7,400 — DK: $9,000

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 140.0 — SIERA: 3.72 — ERA: 3.54 — K%: 18.5% — BB%: 7.3% — HR/9: 0.5
Last 30 Days: IP: 29.2 — SIERA: 4.01 — ERA: 3.34 — K%: 17.4% — BB%: 7.8% — HR/9: 0.3

Houston Astros Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 24.1% (Rank: 29)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.334 (Rank: 11) — Strikeout Rate: 19.9% (Rank: 11)
Pitchers per PA: 3.87 (Rank: 8)

Analysis: Heston is one of those pitchers that I can never seem to nail down. He has pitched well for the Giants this season, posting a 3.72 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18.5%, but he has had some bad fantasy outings too. He draws a plus-strikeout matchup against the Astros, but they are a team that is also ranked eighth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. The upside is there for Heston, but so is the risk. For that reason, I am going to label him as a tournament play. Hisashi Iwakuma and James Shields are better cash game options.

Pitcher Rating: 59.9

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros hit right-handed pitching well as a team, but this isn’t a matchup that suits their lineup that well. Chris Heston gives up a much higher wOBA to left-handed hitters than he does to right-handed hitters. The best bats in this Astros’ lineup hit from the right side of the plate. The Astros are secondary options today in the pitcher-friendly AT&T Park.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

NONE

San Francisco

The Giants draw one of the best matchups in the early slate of games. Scott Feldman is a low-strikeout pitcher that has given up a .310+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. Brandon Belt is coming off of a two home run performance last night. He remains a nice play at his price point. Buster Posey and Hunter Pence are also borderline elite plays at their respective positions.

Elite Plays:

Brandon Belt : FD: $3,500 — DK: $4,100

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 324 — wOBA: 0.371 — ISO: 0.228 — wRC+: 146
Last 30 Days: PA: 98 — wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: 0.230 — wRC+: 125

Secondary Plays:

Buster Posey : FD: $4,400 — DK: $4,400

Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: 1B/C
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 339 — wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.172 — wRC+: 159
Last 30 Days: PA: 90 — wOBA: 0.416 — ISO: 0.123 — wRC+: 177

Hunter Pence : FD: $4,000 — DK: $4,800

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 160 — wOBA: 0.386 — ISO: 0.207 — wRC+: 156
Last 30 Days: PA: 101 — wOBA: 0.406 — ISO: 0.222 — wRC+: 169

Boston at Miami – 4:10 PM EST

Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
Boston					Miami
			Eduardo Rodriguez					Adam Conley
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BOS (-115)					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.250	0.790	0.338	22.2%	SP vs. Left	0.091	0.377	0.210	28.60%
SP vs. Right	0.227	0.650	0.290	19.1%	SP vs. Right	0.237	0.000	0.331	5.00%
Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs L		Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Eduardo Rodriguez : FD: $7,900 — DK: $9,900

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 73.1 — SIERA: 4.13 — ERA: 4.17 — K%: 19.7% — BB%: 8.4% — HR/9: 1.1
Last 30 Days: IP: 20.2 — SIERA: 4.87 — ERA: 5.66 — K%: 15.8% — BB%: 10.5% — HR/9: 1.7

Miami Marlins Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.325 (Rank: 5) — Strikeout Rate: 21.3% (Rank: 18)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.266 (Rank: 29) — Strikeout Rate: 16.7% (Rank: 3)
Pitchers per PA: 3.72 (Rank: 27)

Analysis: Rodriguez comes into tonight’s start in less than stellar form, posting a 4.13 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.7% over the last month of play. His matchup against the Marlins may seem enticing, but they actually hit left-handed pitching very well. On the season, they are ranked fifth in team wOBA and 18th in strikeout rate against southpaws. I’ll pass on Rodriguez today, as he is a bit overpriced considering his matchup and recent form.

Pitcher Rating: 52.4

Adam Conley : FD: $5,000 — DK: $5,100

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 13.1 — SIERA: 5.06 — ERA: 4.05 — K%: 11.1% — BB%: 7.4% — HR/9: 1.4
Last 30 Days: IP: 7.1 — SIERA: 4.55 — ERA: 4.91 — K%: 13.3% — BB%: 6.7% — HR/9: 1.2

Boston Red Sox Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 (Rank: 11) — Strikeout Rate: 20.0% (Rank: 9)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.314 (Rank: 19) — Strikeout Rate: 20.7% (Rank: 17)
Pitchers per PA: 3.97 (Rank: 2)

Analysis: Conley is making his second career major league start. He is one of the Marlins top pitching prospects. In 18 starts at the Triple-A level this season, he had a 3.85 FIP with a strikeout rate of 18.6%. Rather than taking a chance with Conley, it makes sense to pay up for one (or two) of the top pitchers in the early slate. There is more risk than potential reward with Conley in his matchup against the Red Sox.

Pitcher Rating: 33.4

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox face another one of the Marlins’ young lefties tonight in Adam Conley, who is still inexperienced at the major league level. Marlins Park may not be a great ballpark for offensive production, but that doesn’t mean that we have to avoid taking hitters in this matchup. Give the edge to the right-handed bats in this Red Sox lineup.

Elite Plays:

Mookie Betts : FD: $3,300 — DK: $4,400

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 99 — wOBA: 0.293 — ISO: 0.146 — wRC+: 81
Last 30 Days: PA: 53 — wOBA: 0.210 — ISO: 0.060 — wRC+: 23

Secondary Plays:

Xander Bogaerts : FD: $3,300 — DK: $4,300

Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: 3B/SS
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 112 — wOBA: 0.407 — ISO: 0.114 — wRC+: 160
Last 30 Days: PA: 105 — wOBA: 0.317 — ISO: 0.050 — wRC+: 97

Miami

Even with Giancarlo Stanton out of the lineup, the Marlins have been able to keep their team wOBA against left-handed pitching near the top of the rankings. They draw a decent matchup today against the struggling Eduardo Rodriguez. Rodriguez has been a reverse-splits pitcher this season, so don’t count out the left-handed hitters in this lineup.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Dee Gordon : FD: $3,000 — DK: $4,200

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 116 — wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: 0.062 — wRC+: 117
Last 30 Days: PA: 53 — wOBA: 0.242 — ISO: 0.060 — wRC+: 49

Derek Dietrich : FD: $2,300 — DK: $2,800

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 17 — wOBA: 0.403 — ISO: 0.214 — wRC+: 159
Last 30 Days: PA: 69 — wOBA: 0.379 — ISO: 0.273 — wRC+: 143

Martin Prado : FD: $2,200 — DK: $3,400

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 2B/3B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 77 — wOBA: 0.333 — ISO: 0.137 — wRC+: 111
Last 30 Days: PA: 94 — wOBA: 0.265 — ISO: 0.035 — wRC+: 65