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NBA Grind Down: Friday, December 11th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-12-14 02:45:57

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM

Cleveland Cavaliers Orlando Magic
clevelandnba Vegas Total 197.5 orlandonba Vegas Total 197.5
Vegas Sprd -3.0 Vegas Sprd 3.0
Team Proj. 100.3 Team Proj. 97.3
Team Pace 95.70 Team Pace 98.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Matthew Dellavedova Mo Williams LeBron James Kevin Love Timofey Mozgov Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Tobias Harris Channing Frye Nikola Vucevic
Opp. Season 22 7 13 10 21 Opp. Season 13 18 4 1 3
Opp. Last 7 4 27 10 16 15 Opp. Last 7 25 20 1 6 11

Cleveland Cavaliers

Record: 14-7 — Road: 4-6 — Last 10: 6-4

The Cavaliers have won six of their last ten games, but are only 4-6 on the road this season. Tonight they head to Orlando to take on Magic team that has really been playing well recently. The Cavaliers are listed as 3-point favorites in a game that features a total of 197.5 points.

The Magic have been very good defensively this season. They are ranked 11th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Cavaliers are only projected to score 100.3 points tonight, which is slightly lower than their average points scored per game this season.

Kyrie Irving is close to returning to the court, but that will not happen tonight against the Magic. J.R. Smith will join him on the list of inactives, as he has been ruled out with an illness. The Cavaliers will have Iman Shumpert tonight, although it is unclear what his role will be and how many minutes he will be able to play. LeBron James is a safe option in all league formats, although he is not a must play on a night that features 11 games. Kevin Love has struggled in his last five games, but this could be his last game as the number one option offensively. If he realizes that, he may start chucking up threes from half-court. Matthew Dellavedova and Mo Williams (if he starts) both provide nice value with Smith out.

Elite Plays

Matthew Dellavedova

FD — $4,400 — PG
DK — $4,600 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.7 | Last Five Games: 12.9
Min/Game — Season: 28.4 | Last Five Games: 32.0
FP/Game — Season: 19.7 | Last Five Games: 20.0

Secondary Plays

LeBron James

FD — $10,400 — SF
DK — $10,000 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 28.4 | Last Five Games: 29.9
Min/Game — Season: 37.1 | Last Five Games: 39.6
FP/Game — Season: 46.1 | Last Five Games: 50.2

Kevin Love

FD — $7,700 — PF
DK — $8,100 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.8 | Last Five Games: 20.0
Min/Game — Season: 33.5 | Last Five Games: 31.2
FP/Game — Season: 35.0 | Last Five Games: 27.6

Mo Williams

FD — $5,100 — PG
DK — $5,000 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.2 | Last Five Games: 20.0
Min/Game — Season: 28.2 | Last Five Games: 22.4
FP/Game — Season: 22.4 | Last Five Games: 14.9

Orlando Magic

Record: 12-10 — Home: 7-3 — Last 10: 6-4

The Magic have won six of their last ten games and have improved their home record to 7-3 on the season. If they can beat the Cavaliers tonight, they will really have my attention. Vegas is expecting this to be a very competitive game, as the Magic are listed as only 3-point underdogs.

The Cavaliers have a truly elite defense. On the season, they are ranked sixth or better in points allowed per game, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Magic are only projected to score 97.3 points tonight, which is four points lower than their average points scored per game this season.

Elfrid Payton has been one of my favorite point guard targets recently. Scott Skiles has finally tightened his rotation, which has led to more consistent minutes for the starters. Over his last five games, Payton has averaged 34.3 fantasy points in 33.9 minutes per contest. Nikola Vucevic has also played well recently, although the Cavaliers have been tough on opposing big men. He is more of a secondary play tonight at center.

Elite Plays

Elfrid Payton

FD — $6,900 — PG
DK — $6,700 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.0 | Last Five Games: 21.8
Min/Game — Season: 32.3 | Last Five Games: 33.9
FP/Game — Season: 27.6 | Last Five Games: 34.3

Secondary Plays

Nikola Vucevic

FD — $7,500 — C
DK — $7,000 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.6 | Last Five Games: 19.5
Min/Game — Season: 30.2 | Last Five Games: 34.3
FP/Game — Season: 32.0 | Last Five Games: 35.5

Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM

Detroit Pistons Philadelphia 76ers
detroitnba Vegas Total 192.5 philadelphianba Vegas Total 192.5
Vegas Sprd -8.0 Vegas Sprd 8.0
Team Proj. 100.3 Team Proj. 92.3
Team Pace 97.90 Team Pace 99.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Ersan Ilyasova Andre Drummond Proj. Starter T.J. McConnell Isaiah Canaan Robert Covington Nerlens Noel Jahlil Okafor
Opp. Season 14 4 29 29 24 Opp. Season 7 14 3 21 11
Opp. Last 7 18 2 13 30 23 Opp. Last 7 11 5 18 18 17

Detroit Pistons

Record: 12-11 — Road: 4-8 — Last 10: 5-5

The Pistons have lost five of their last ten games. They have really struggled on the road, but luckily they get a bye tonight against the Sixers in Philadelphia. The Pistons are listed as 8-point favorites in this matchup with the total for the game set at 192.5 points.

The Sixers have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season. They are ranked 21st or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Pistons are projected to score 100.3 points tonight. While that may not seem like a high projection, it is 2.5 points higher than their average points scored per game this season.

Andre Drummond has been a tough player to predict recently. He seems to play well in tough matchups and disappoint in favorable ones. Matchups don’t get more favorable than this one, as he takes on a Sixers’ team that is ranked dead last in rebounding differential. If this game stays close, Drummond could easily push for 20 points and 20 rebounds. Reggie Jackson will be a popular target at point guard. While I love his upside, I always have a hard time using him in cash games. Once again, I will only be using him in tournaments. Marcus Morris and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are both viable secondary plays at their respective positions.

Elite Plays

Andre Drummond

FD — $9,300 — C
DK — $9,500 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.1 | Last Five Games: 21.7
Min/Game — Season: 34.5 | Last Five Games: 32.4
FP/Game — Season: 43.8 | Last Five Games: 41.3

Secondary Plays

Reggie Jackson

Elite tournament play.
FD — $7,300 — PG
DK — $7,300 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 26.4 | Last Five Games: 25.0
Min/Game — Season: 31.0 | Last Five Games: 30.9
FP/Game — Season: 32.8 | Last Five Games: 33.3

Marcus Morris

FD — $5,800 — SF
DK — $5,900 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.8 | Last Five Games: 17.2
Min/Game — Season: 36.4 | Last Five Games: 35.8
FP/Game — Season: 25.7 | Last Five Games: 26.0

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

FD — $5,100 — SG
DK — $4,600 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.1 | Last Five Games: 14.4
Min/Game — Season: 36.9 | Last Five Games: 36.6
FP/Game — Season: 21.8 | Last Five Games: 23.5

Philadelphia 76ers

Record: 1-22 — Home: 1-9 — Last 10: 1-9

The Sixers gave the Nets a fight last night, but they eventually fell short. They are no 1-22 on the season, which is a good number, because it is my birthday. It’s not a good record though. The Sixers are in danger of losing yet another game tonight, as they are 8-point underdogs at home against the Pistons.

The Pistons have been stout defensively this season, ranking eighth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Sixers are only projected to score 92.3 points, which is the second lowest team total on the board tonight.

The Sixers are a mess right now and so is their rotation. Even though Tony Wroten will get the night off, it’s still hard to trust anyone in this backcourt. Plus, with Kendall Wright expected to make his season debut, there could be less minutes for Isaiah Canaan and T.J. McConnell. Jahlil Okafor and Nerlens Noel should be starting again in the frontcourt, but neither player really stands out in a difficult matchup against the Pistons. With a full slate on tap tonight, it shouldn’t hurt to fade the Sixers.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM

Miami Heat Indiana Pacers
miaminba Vegas Total 195.5 indiananba Vegas Total 195.5
Vegas Sprd 5.0 Vegas Sprd -5.0
Team Proj. 95.3 Team Proj. 100.3
Team Pace 96.00 Team Pace 100.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Luol Deng Chris Bosh Hassan Whiteside Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis C.J. Miles Paul George Ian Mahinmi
Opp. Season 3 28 10 15 17 Opp. Season 2 3 25 3 9
Opp. Last 7 29 25 22 22 27 Opp. Last 7 17 17 24 4 1

Miami Heat

Record: 12-8 — Road: 2-4 — Last 10: 6-4

The Heat have won six of their last ten games, but they are only 2-4 on the road this season. They draw a tough test tonight against the Pacers in Indiana. The Heat are listed as 5-point underdogs in a game that features a low total of 195.5 points.

The Pacers play at a fast pace, but they are still a bad team to target players against. On the season, they are ranked 13th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Heat have an implied team total of 95.3 points tonight, which is slightly lower than their average points scored per game this season.

Hassan Whiteside missed Thursday’s practice, as he is dealing with a sore ankle. He is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. If he is unable to suit up, Chris Bosh and Josh McRoberts would both see a small fantasy boost. Dwyane Wade is the only fantasy option of note in this matchup. He has played well over his last five games, averaging 36.2 fantasy points per contest. He also draws a favorable matchup against Monta Ellis and the Pacers, who are ranked 28th against shooting guards.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Dwyane Wade

FD — $7,300 — SG
DK — $7,000 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 27.2 | Last Five Games: 28.5
Min/Game — Season: 29.5 | Last Five Games: 30.0
FP/Game — Season: 30.8 | Last Five Games: 36.2

Indiana Pacers

Record: 12-8 — Home: 6-3 — Last 10: 6-4

The Pacers are coming off of tough loss against the Warriors at home, although they did make it interesting late in the fourth quarter. They face another talented team tonight, although this will be a much different game. The Heat have one of the slowest paces of any team in the NBA, averaging only 96 possessions per game.

The Heat have been terrific defensively this season. It always helps when you play at a slow pace, but anytime you are ranked third or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game, you must be doing something right. The Pacers are only projected to score 100.3 points tonight, which is four points lower than their average points scored per game this season.

If we have learned anything this season, it’s that Paul George is matchup proof. He will likely have to deal with Luol Deng and Justise Winslow tonight, but that’s not enough of a concern to list him as anything other than an elite play. He has as much upside as anyone in tonight’s slate, with the possible exception of Anthony Davis. Outside of George, there aren’t any players that stand out tonight against the Heat.

Elite Plays

Paul George

FD — $10,400 — SF
DK — $10,200 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 27.1 | Last Five Games: 29.8
Min/Game — Season: 36.3 | Last Five Games: 37.9
FP/Game — Season: 44.6 | Last Five Games: 49.2

Secondary Plays

NONE

Golden State Warriors at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM

Golden State Warriors Boston Celtics
goldenstatenba Vegas Total 214.5 bostonnba Vegas Total 214.5
Vegas Sprd -6.5 Vegas Sprd 6.5
Team Proj. 110.5 Team Proj. 104.0
Team Pace 101.60 Team Pace 101.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Brandon Rush Draymond Green Andrew Bogut Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Jared Sullinger
Opp. Season 1 20 22 22 15 Opp. Season 17 5 16 14 10
Opp. Last 7 1 14 23 24 21 Opp. Last 7 23 4 30 13 20

Golden State Warriors

Record: 23-0 — Road: 13-0 — Last 10: 10-0

A lot of people thought that the Pacers were going to end the Warriors winning streak on Wednesday night. I thought they had a good chance, but I mentioned in the Grind Down that I was saving my “Warriors will lose against this team” card. I thought about using that card here, but I just don’t see this team losing tonight, even in a difficult matchup against the Celtics.

The Celtics have quietly played some terrific defense this season. They are ranked tenth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Pace is expected to overrule the matchup tonight though. If you check out the NBA First Look, you will see that this game has a projected pace of 104.1 possessions for each team. The Warriors are projected to score 110.5 points, which is the highest team total on the board.

The big question with Golden State tonight is the status of Klay Thompson. He has been playing his best basketball of the season and it would obviously be a big hit if he is unable to play tonight. Thompson said that his ankle is about 70 percent and that he will likely be a game-time decision. If he is unable to suit up, give a nice fantasy boost to Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Andre Iguodala. Curry and Green are elite plays regardless, but Iguodala would move up into that elite play territory if Thompson is ruled out.

Elite Plays

Stephen Curry

FD — $11,000 — PG
DK — $10,700 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 28.2 | Last Five Games: 27.6
Min/Game — Season: 34.4 | Last Five Games: 34.8
FP/Game — Season: 48.4 | Last Five Games: 46.4

Draymond Green

FD — $8,100 — PF
DK — $8,200 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.0 | Last Five Games: 19.2
Min/Game — Season: 34.0 | Last Five Games: 35.7
FP/Game — Season: 35.8 | Last Five Games: 35.8

Secondary Plays

Andre Iguodala

FD — $4,900 — SF
DK — $5,200 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 10.7 | Last Five Games: 7.4
Min/Game — Season: 27.5 | Last Five Games: 26.3
FP/Game — Season: 21.5 | Last Five Games: 19.2

Boston Celtics

Record: 13-9 — Home: 7-4 — Last 10: 6-4

The Celtics are ready for tonight’s game against the Warriors. A few of their players said that they weren’t worried about the Warriors’ offense, because they can just as easily score as many points. I expect tonight’s game to be close, but if the Celtics are going to pull off the win, they are going to need to play great defense AND great offense.

The Warriors have been solid defensively this season. They have allowed the 14th most points per game this season, but they are ranked inside the top ten in defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. As mentioned above, the fast pace of this game overrules the matchup. The Celtics are projected to score 104 points tonight, which is the sixth highest team total on the board.

Brad Stevens’ rotation can be frustrating at times, but if there was ever a matchup where we should be able to predict the minute distribution, this would be it. The Celtics are going to need big games from Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, and Jared Sullinger tonight and I expect all three to play 30+ minutes. Bradley is probably my least favorite play of the bunch, but the other three are all on my radar tonight at home.

Elite Plays

Isaiah Thomas

FD — $7,900 — PG
DK — $7,800 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 26.3 | Last Five Games: 23.7
Min/Game — Season: 31.1 | Last Five Games: 32.6
FP/Game — Season: 34.0 | Last Five Games: 37.5

Jared Sullinger

FD — $6,200 — PF
DK — $6,400 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.3 | Last Five Games: 16.1
Min/Game — Season: 25.5 | Last Five Games: 27.2
FP/Game — Season: 28.2 | Last Five Games: 27.8

Secondary Plays

Jae Crowder

FD — $5,200 — SF
DK — $5,700 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.2 | Last Five Games: 13.5
Min/Game — Season: 30.6 | Last Five Games: 33.0
FP/Game — Season: 23.9 | Last Five Games: 25.7

Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM

Milwaukee Bucks Toronto Raptors
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 194.0 torontonba Vegas Total 194.0
Vegas Sprd 7.5 Vegas Sprd -7.5
Team Proj. 93.3 Team Proj. 100.8
Team Pace 95.50 Team Pace 96.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter O.J. Mayo Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Greg Monroe Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan Terrence Ross Luis Scola Bismack Biyombo
Opp. Season 4 23 8 13 14 Opp. Season 10 8 27 25 12
Opp. Last 7 9 26 7 8 2 Opp. Last 7 21 9 15 27 6

Milwaukee Bucks

Record: 9-14 — Road: 2-9 — Last 10: 4-6

The Bucks continue to lose games. They are now 2-9 on the road, as they head to Toronto to take on the Raptors. With their current form, it should come as no surprise that they are listed as 7.5-point underdogs tonight.

The Raptors have been very good defensively this season. They are ranked seventh or better in points allowed per game, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Bucks are only projected to score 93.3 points, which is the third lowest team total on the board tonight.

While I’m not a fan of the Bucks as a whole, I do like O.J. Mayo again tonight. He has really played well with Jerryd Bayless and Greivis Vasquez out. In his four starts at point guard, he has averaged 27.5 fantasy points in 35.5 minutes per game. Even though he has been playing well recently, he is still cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The rest of the Bucks can safely be avoided tonight, but Mayo is worth a look in all league formats.

Elite Plays

O.J. Mayo

FD — $4,800 — SG
DK — $5,400 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.5 | Last Five Games: 17.1
Min/Game — Season: 29.3 | Last Five Games: 33.1
FP/Game — Season: 19.8 | Last Five Games: 24.6

Secondary Plays

NONE

Toronto Raptors

Record: 14-9 — Home: 6-4 — Last 10: 7-3

The Raptors have won seven of their last ten games and have improved to 14-9 on the season. They draw a fairly easy matchup tonight against the Bucks, who have been a completely different team this season. The Raptors are listed as 7.5-point favorites in a game that features a total of 194 points.

The Bucks have really struggled on the defensive end of the floor. The fact that they have been one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA only goes to show how bad they have been on defense. They are ranked 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Raptors are projected to score 100.8 points tonight, which is nearly identical to their average points scored per game this season.

There hasn’t been an official update from the Raptors yet today, but it looks like DeMarre Carroll and Jonas Valanciunas will be out again tonight. If that’s the case, Terrence Ross and Bismack Biyombo will continue to start. The main fantasy options here are Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. Both are in play tonight at home, although the Bucks are ranked tenth or better against both point guards and shooting guards this season. With so many games on the schedule, I see them both as secondary options at their respective positions.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kyle Lowry

FD — $9,200 — PG
DK — $8,900 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.4 | Last Five Games: 25.5
Min/Game — Season: 35.8 | Last Five Games: 37.5
FP/Game — Season: 40.6 | Last Five Games: 46.4

DeMar DeRozan

FD — $7,500 — SG
DK — $7,000 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.3 | Last Five Games: 24.7
Min/Game — Season: 36.3 | Last Five Games: 36.6
FP/Game — Season: 32.8 | Last Five Games: 33.2

Cory Joseph

FD — $4,300 — PG
DK — $4,400 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.7 | Last Five Games: 14.7
Min/Game — Season: 26.4 | Last Five Games: 30.4
FP/Game — Season: 18.3 | Last Five Games: 19.0

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious