NBA Grind Down: Friday, February 23rd
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
We have a massive 11-game slate on tap in the association. If you are wondering why I don’t dive deep into a couple of the games, it’s an effort to save you some time. We can typically cross a couple games off our list of potential targets in slates this size and that’s exactly what I plan to do tonight. If you are interested in seeing my NBA model and how it impacts my decision making as we get closer to lock, be sure to watch my Grind Down video update which is available for premium members.
Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET
| Charlotte Hornets | Washington Wizards | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 211.0 |  | Vegas Total | 211.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 3.5 | Vegas Spread | -3.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 103.8 | Implied Team Total | 107.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.1 | Pace Projection +/- | 1.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Dwight Howard | Projected Starters | Tomas Satoransky | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 16 | 9 | 25 | 2 | 11 | DvP | 12 | 11 | 26 | 15 | 16 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 9 | 11 | 1 | 19 | 7 | DRPM Rat. | 13 | 15 | 11 | 14 | 7 | |
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets and Wizards were both featured on the schedule last night, so they will both be playing in the second half of back-to-backs. This isn’t a great matchup for Charlotte, but it could certainly be worse. The Wizards are ranked right around the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Hornets come into the game with an implied total of 103.8 points, which is the fourth lowest on the board and two points below their season average.
With so many players to choose from at each position, I plan to have very little exposure to the Hornets. They have struggled on the road all season and their salaries aren’t that appealing on FanDuel or DraftKings. Kemba Walker is in that no-man’s land at point guard, as he is sandwiched between the likes of Chris Paul, Kyrie Irving, and Elfrid Payton. Nicolas Batum and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist are far too inconsistent to trust in an 11-game slate. Marvin Williams and Frank Kaminsky were both intriguing value plays last night, but this is a much better slate for power forwards. The one and only Hornets’ player on my radar is Dwight Howard, who scored 49 fantasy points in his last meeting against Marcin Gortat and the Wizards.
Notable Injuries
None
Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 106.0 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.8 (19 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -2.3 (20 of 22)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.5 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.3 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.5 (15 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kemba Walker | $8,700 | $8,200 | $15,000 | 38.0 | 3.1 | 35.1 | 0.4 | 1.08 | 27.2% | 11 | 16 | 9 |
| Nicolas Batum | $6,100 | $5,700 | $11,300 | 26.1 | -1.6 | 31.6 | 0.1 | 0.83 | 18.7% | 5 | 9 | 11 |
| Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $3,900 | $4,000 | $7,400 | 19.9 | -8.8 | 26.2 | -1.7 | 0.76 | 14.8% | 15 | 25 | 1 |
| Marvin Williams | $4,200 | $4,100 | $8,000 | 19.3 | 2.1 | 26.1 | -0.1 | 0.74 | 12.7% | 19 | 2 | 19 |
| Dwight Howard | $8,600 | $7,800 | $15,100 | 37.1 | -5.7 | 31.0 | -1.2 | 1.20 | 19.2% | 10 | 11 | 7 |
| Jeremy Lamb | $4,800 | $4,700 | $9,100 | 24.5 | -1.9 | 24.9 | -2.8 | 0.98 | 22.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Frank Kaminsky | $3,700 | $4,200 | $8,300 | 18.8 | -0.8 | 23.1 | -1.4 | 0.81 | 19.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Dwight Howard (GPP)
Washington Wizards
The Wizards are the preferred team to target in this game, as they are playing at home and without their best player in John Wall. The Hornets have been mediocre defensively, but that changes a bit when you look at their splits on the road. They have been much better defensively when playing in front of their home crowd. The Wizards have an implied total of 107.3 points, which is the 12th highest of the slate and nearly identical to their season average.
Tomas Satoransky continues to play well in Wall’s absence, averaging 32 minutes and 34 fantasy points over his last five games. I had him pegged as an excellent pivot away from Emmanuel Mudiay and Austin Rivers last night, but didn’t end up using him. Satoransky is more of a large-field tournament flier in a slate this size, although his price on DraftKings ($5,700) is still appealing. Bradley Beal has an elite usage rate and is averaging 42 fantasy points over his last five games, but will have two pesky defenders to deal with in Nicolas Batum and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Given his price point and matchup, Beal doesn’t grade out as a great point-per-dollar option at shooting guard.
Otto Porter comes into this game in good form and if we trust the numbers, he draws the best matchup of the five starters. On the season, Charlotte is ranked 24th in efficiency and 26th in DvP against small forwards. Porter is viable in tournaments, but his elevated price point takes him out of cash game consideration. Kelly Oubre remains an intriguing tournament play off the bench, as he is averaging close to 30 minutes per game with Wall out of the lineup. The Wizards’ frontcourt has been too inconsistent this season, both from a playing time and a fantasy production standpoint. Against the Hornets, I will be avoiding Markieff Morris, Marcin Gortat, and Mike Scott.
Notable Injuries
None
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 107.4 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.3 (12 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -0.2 (13 of 22)
Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.6 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.8 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.3 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.4 (10 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Satoransky | $6,500 | $5,700 | $10,100 | 15.1 | 18.4 | 18.4 | 13.2 | 0.82 | 15.1% | 15 | 12 | 13 |
| Bradley Beal | $9,000 | $8,800 | $16,300 | 38.0 | 4.4 | 36.4 | 3.3 | 1.04 | 26.0% | 10 | 11 | 15 |
| Otto Porter | $7,600 | $7,000 | $12,500 | 30.5 | 7.2 | 31.9 | 2.7 | 0.96 | 16.9% | 24 | 26 | 11 |
| Markieff Morris | $6,000 | $5,400 | $10,300 | 22.2 | 5.9 | 26.1 | 0.4 | 0.85 | 16.2% | 24 | 15 | 14 |
| Marcin Gortat | $5,000 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 24.0 | -0.5 | 26.3 | -1.8 | 0.91 | 13.8% | 11 | 16 | 7 |
| Kelly Oubre | $4,900 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 21.8 | -0.9 | 27.6 | 5.2 | 0.79 | 16.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Mike Scott | $3,500 | $4,000 | $7,400 | 15.2 | -2.0 | 18.5 | 0.0 | 0.82 | 17.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Tomas Satoransky (GPP), Otto Porter (GPP), Kelly Oubre (GPP)
Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET
| Atlanta Hawks | Indiana Pacers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 211.5 |  | Vegas Total | 211.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 7.5 | Vegas Spread | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 102.0 | Implied Team Total | 109.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.0 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Dennis Schroder | Kent Bazemore | Taurean Prince | Ersan Ilyasova | Dewayne Dedmon | Projected Starters | Cory Joseph | Victor Oladipo | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 28 | DvP | 22 | 14 | 30 | 26 | 29 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 23 | 1 | 28 | 12 | 19 | DRPM Rat. | 30 | 2 | 27 | 19 | 13 | |
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks are one of the least talented teams in basketball, but they have seemingly turned the keys over to their young guns. This should provide us with some intriguing fantasy options over the last two months of the season. As far as tonight’s matchup goes, this one is average at best. The Pacers are ranked 21st in pace of play and 13th in points allowed per game. The Hawks have an implied total of 102 points, which is nearly two points below their season average.
Dennis Schroder has played well this season, but he doesn’t seem to have the same minute upside as most starting point guards. Perhaps the injuries to Malcolm Delaney and Isaiah Taylor can open up a few more minutes for Schroder in the rotation, but he’s still a tournament dart in this slate. Kent Bazemore and Taurean Prince have been about as reliable Anthony Davis staying on the floor. We don’t need to take unnecessary risks in a slate this size, so I will be avoiding both of the Hawks’ wings. The best way to attack Indiana is at the center position and Dewayne Dedmon comes into the game in solid form, averaging 26 minutes and 26 fantasy points over his last five games. He’s far from a core play, but certainly viable at his price point.
Notable Injuries
Malcolm Delaney (Out)
Isaiah Taylor (Questionable)
Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 103.7 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.0 (21 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -1.7 (19 of 22)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.5 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.4 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.0 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.4 (21 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder | $7,000 | $7,000 | $13,100 | 33.7 | -0.5 | 31.3 | -0.7 | 1.08 | 29.4% | 5 | 9 | 23 |
| Kent Bazemore | $5,900 | $5,600 | $10,500 | 27.7 | -3.6 | 27.9 | -1.1 | 0.99 | 20.3% | 24 | 10 | 1 |
| Taurean Prince | $4,500 | $5,100 | $10,000 | 23.3 | -5.3 | 29.9 | -2.6 | 0.78 | 17.2% | 7 | 11 | 28 |
| Ersan Ilyasova | $4,800 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 22.5 | 0.6 | 25.6 | -1.1 | 0.88 | 16.0% | 16 | 11 | 12 |
| Dewayne Dedmon | $5,600 | $5,700 | $10,900 | 23.5 | 2.1 | 23.5 | 2.8 | 1.00 | 15.1% | 27 | 28 | 19 |
| John Collins | $5,500 | $5,500 | $12,100 | 24.2 | -1.3 | 22.3 | 1.3 | 1.09 | 15.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Tyler Dorsey | $3,700 | $4,300 | $8,400 | 9.4 | 7.3 | 12.7 | 11.1 | 0.74 | 17.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Dennis Schroder (GPP), Dewayne Dedmon (GPP)
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers have quietly won seven of their last ten games and currently sit in fifth in the Eastern Conference standings. Their matchup against the Hawks is one of the most exploitable of the slate, as Atlanta is ranked 23rd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Pacers have an implied total of 109.5 points, which is the seventh highest of the slate and three points above their season average.
Targeting point guards against the Hawks has long been a tradition of mine in daily fantasy basketball, but Cory Joseph has not stepped up in the absence of Darren Collison. Joe Young has been the more productive of the two, but he doesn’t play enough minutes to warrant consideration. Victor Oladipo has the most difficult matchup of the five starters, but he was on fire before the All-Star break, averaging 55 fantasy points in his last five games. He’s a superstar that few will pay up for tonight, making him an intriguing tournament play on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Bojan Bogdanovic has an excellent matchup, but I have a hard time paying $5,500 for him in a slate where we can play T.J. Warren or Brandon Ingram for a few hundred dollars more. Myles Turner numbers don’t look very pretty, but he has played 29 minutes in back-to-back games and he gets to square off against a Hawks’ team that is ranked 29th in DvP against centers and 25th in rebounding differential. Of the two power forwards, I prefer Domantas Sabonis over Thaddeus Young, as he is more productive on a per-minute basis and could potentially play a few extra minutes if this game gets out of hand in the second half.
Notable Injuries
Darren Collison (Out)
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 106.8 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.5 (7 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 2.7 (9 of 22)
Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.8 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.0 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.5 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.6 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cory Joseph | $5,200 | $4,900 | $10,600 | 18.4 | 2.2 | 26.2 | 4.4 | 0.70 | 14.8% | 22 | 22 | 30 |
| Victor Oladipo | $10,000 | $9,600 | $17,500 | 42.8 | 12.4 | 34.6 | 1.9 | 1.24 | 27.5% | 11 | 14 | 2 |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $5,500 | $5,500 | $10,800 | 21.1 | 8.8 | 30.6 | 2.2 | 0.69 | 16.3% | 30 | 30 | 27 |
| Thaddeus Young | $6,500 | $6,400 | $12,700 | 26.9 | 2.2 | 32.7 | 0.5 | 0.82 | 15.2% | 21 | 26 | 19 |
| Myles Turner | $7,000 | $7,200 | $13,500 | 29.9 | -7.6 | 28.3 | -2.9 | 1.06 | 17.9% | 22 | 29 | 13 |
| Lance Stephenson | $4,800 | $5,200 | $10,100 | 20.9 | 4.4 | 23.3 | 2.4 | 0.90 | 18.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Domantas Sabonis | $4,900 | $5,400 | $10,300 | 26.2 | -4.5 | 25.3 | 0.0 | 1.04 | 19.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Victor Oladipo (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Victor Oladipo (Cash), Myles Turner (GPP), Domantas Sabonis (FD)
Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 PM ET
| Boston Celtics | Detroit Pistons | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208.0 |  | Vegas Total | 208.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -2.0 | Vegas Spread | 2.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 105.0 | Implied Team Total | 103.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.9 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kyrie Irving | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Al Horford | Aron Baynes | Projected Starters | Ish Smith | Reggie Bullock | Stanley Johnson | Blake Griffin | Andre Drummond | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 10 | 8 | 29 | 17 | 7 | DvP | 1 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 8 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 15 | 23 | 8 | 26 | 5 | DRPM Rat. | 22 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
Boston Celtics
The Celtics are one of those teams that I hate to see on the schedule. While they have a ton of talent, they play at a slow pace and tend to suck the fantasy production right out of each game. Not only are they one of the best defensive teams in basketball, but they have a deep rotation themselves. They draw a mediocre matchup against the Pistons. While Detroit is ranked eighth in points allowed per game, that number has come down since the acquisition of Blake Griffin. The Celtics’ implied total of 105 points is two points higher than their season average.
Kyrie Irving should be off his minute restriction for tonight’s game against the Pistons, who are ranked 22nd in efficiency against point guards. Irving’s price is currently discounted on FanDuel ($7,900), making him one of the top plays at his position. With Marcus Smart expected to play tonight, I will take a wait and see approach with Terry Rozier, Jaylen Brown, and Jayson Tatum. Al Horford has really struggled since the Celtics’ acquired Greg Monroe. It could be a coincidence, but I will be watching from the sidelines and taking notes. The only other play of note here is Marcus Morris, who is averaging 29 minutes and 22 fantasy points over his last five games. He offers nice value on FanDuel ($4,800) where we have to roster two power forwards.
Notable Injuries
Shane Larkin (Out)
Marcus Smart (Probable)
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 103.1 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.0 (15 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 1.9 (11 of 22)
Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.5 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.0 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.3 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | $7,900 | $8,400 | $16,100 | 38.4 | -4.7 | 32.8 | -2.6 | 1.17 | 29.5% | 22 | 10 | 15 |
| Jaylen Brown | $5,400 | $5,500 | $10,800 | 25.4 | -3.5 | 31.6 | 0.6 | 0.80 | 17.7% | 3 | 8 | 23 |
| Jayson Tatum | $5,200 | $5,200 | $10,000 | 25.5 | -8.7 | 31.1 | -0.7 | 0.82 | 16.0% | 25 | 29 | 8 |
| Al Horford | $6,900 | $6,700 | $12,600 | 33.6 | -7.3 | 32.2 | -2.7 | 1.04 | 17.5% | 13 | 17 | 26 |
| Aron Baynes | $3,800 | $3,600 | $6,900 | 15.2 | 1.0 | 18.1 | -1.4 | 0.84 | 14.5% | 15 | 7 | 5 |
| Marcus Morris | $4,800 | $5,400 | $10,600 | 21.8 | 0.6 | 24.7 | 4.5 | 0.88 | 20.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Terry Rozier | $6,100 | $5,600 | $11,900 | 21.8 | 5.4 | 24.2 | 4.4 | 0.90 | 19.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Marcus Smart | $5,000 | $4,800 | $9,500 | 24.4 | 30.3 | 0.80 | 18.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving (FD)
Secondary Plays – Kyrie Irving (DK), Marcus Morris (FD)
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons have won six of their last ten games, but are currently outside of the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. For their trade to be worth it, you could argue that they need to make the postseason and potentially even pull off an upset in the first round. They draw an awful matchup tonight against the Celtics, who are ranked second in points allowed per game and first in defensive efficiency this season. The Pistons have an implied total of only 103 points, which is the third lowest of the slate.
When it comes to point guards and wing players, I tend to avoid them against the Celtics unless there is an injury that creates such great value that it’s too hard to pass up. That’s not the case with the Pistons tonight and I don’t see much upside in the likes of Ish Smith, Reggie Bullock, or Stanley Johnson. The two players that you should consider here are Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond. Griffin is slightly underpriced on FanDuel ($8,400) and he technically draws the best matchup of the five starters. Andre Drummond is close to matchup-proof, his price has come down well below $10,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, his ownership will be reasonable in cash games and tournaments.
Notable Injuries
Reggie Bullock (Probable)
Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 103.4 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.0 (20 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -0.4 (14 of 22)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.9 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.1 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (22 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ish Smith | $5,800 | $5,300 | $10,300 | 22.2 | 4.3 | 24.4 | 5.1 | 0.91 | 22.8% | 2 | 1 | 22 |
| Reggie Bullock | $4,800 | $4,800 | $8,400 | 16.6 | 5.7 | 26.1 | 7.4 | 0.63 | 12.6% | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| Stanley Johnson | $4,600 | $4,700 | $8,900 | 18.7 | 1.0 | 28.0 | 1.7 | 0.67 | 14.5% | 2 | 12 | 3 |
| Blake Griffin | $8,400 | $8,600 | $15,700 | 40.9 | -2.2 | 34.4 | -0.4 | 1.19 | 27.8% | 13 | 4 | 3 |
| Andre Drummond | $9,700 | $9,300 | $17,100 | 46.2 | 3.7 | 33.4 | 2.7 | 1.38 | 18.8% | 7 | 8 | 1 |
| Anthony Tolliver | $3,700 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 14.3 | 1.3 | 21.3 | 1.5 | 0.67 | 13.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Andre Drummond
Secondary Plays – Blake Griffin (FD)
Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET
| Milwaukee Bucks | Toronto Raptors | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 215.5 |  | Vegas Total | 215.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 7.5 | Vegas Spread | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.0 | Implied Team Total | 111.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.7 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Eric Bledsoe | Tony Snell | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | John Henson | Projected Starters | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | OG Anunoby | Serge Ibaka | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 6 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 13 | DvP | 8 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 26 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 3 | 22 | 4 | 11 | 11 | DRPM Rat. | 6 | 25 | 24 | 2 | 3 | |
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks are a team to watch closely over the next two months. They have really played well under their interim head coach and they have enough talent to cause some headaches for one of the top seeds in the Eastern Conference. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Raptors, who are ranked tenth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Bucks have an implied total of 104 points, which is slightly below their season average.
Even though this is a tough spot for the team as a whole, there are actually some intriguing plays from Milwaukee. Eric Bledsoe has really picked up his play with Malcolm Brogdon out of the lineup, averaging 34 minutes and 43 fantasy points in his last five games. Bledsoe is priced under $7,000 on DraftKings and we should be able to target him at sub-15% ownership. Khris Middleton also feels a little too cheap on DraftKings at a price of $6,700. Giannis Antetokounmpo has upside in any matchup, but it’s hard to justify the play in a slate that features James Harden, LeBron James, Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Davis, and Andre Drummond. John Henson was in great form before hurting his hamstring. While I like the price point, I want to see him play well in at least one game before targeting him again.
Notable Injuries
Matthew Dellavedova (Out)
Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.6 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.0 (17 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -0.6 (16 of 22)
Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.4 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.6 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.9 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.5 (9 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Bledsoe | $7,900 | $6,900 | $12,600 | 33.5 | 9.4 | 30.8 | 3.2 | 1.09 | 24.1% | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| Tony Snell | $3,500 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 14.3 | -2.5 | 29.1 | -0.9 | 0.49 | 9.9% | 20 | 5 | 22 |
| Khris Middleton | $7,500 | $6,700 | $13,000 | 34.7 | -1.2 | 36.7 | -2.0 | 0.95 | 22.4% | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | $10,800 | $10,500 | $19,400 | 52.8 | 0.1 | 37.0 | 0.2 | 1.43 | 28.5% | 8 | 9 | 11 |
| John Henson | $5,000 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 23.8 | -0.2 | 25.3 | -4.7 | 0.94 | 13.1% | 12 | 13 | 11 |
Elite Plays – Eric Bledsoe (DK GPP)
Secondary Plays – Eric Bledsoe (DK Cash), Khris Middleton (DK)
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors own the best record in the Eastern Conference and have a three-game lead in the loss column over the Celtics. They are the odds-on favorite to have home-court advantage throughout the playoffs in the East. They draw a fairly difficult matchup tonight against the Bucks, who have really stepped up their play defensively. After being a bottom ten defense for most of the year, Milwaukee has vaulted up to 11th in points allowed per game and 16th in defensive efficiency. The Raptors’ implied total of 111.5 points is slightly below their season average.
Kyle Lowry tends to play well in difficult matchups, but he seems a bit overpriced tonight. Dollar for dollar, I would rather play Eric Bledsoe on DraftKings. On FanDuel, both are easy fades. DeMar DeRozan price is tempting and we know the Bucks have struggled to defend wing players at times. Tony Snell and Khris Middleton are both subpar defenders and DeRozan has taken full advantage in their first two meetings this season, averaging 56 fantasy points per contest. The best way to attack Milwaukee is at the center position, but I refuse to pay nearly $7,000 for a player that we can’t realistically project to play more than 24-26 minutes. I know the matchup is great for Jonas Valanciunas, but I will let others play him at this price point.
Notable Injuries
None
Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 111.9 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.5 (5 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -0.4 (14 of 22)
Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.6 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.1 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.8 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.7 (24 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry | $7,900 | $7,400 | $13,200 | 34.7 | 1.1 | 32.1 | -4.7 | 1.08 | 22.1% | 8 | 8 | 6 |
| DeMar DeRozan | $7,900 | $8,100 | $14,900 | 38.5 | -6.6 | 34.0 | -3.9 | 1.13 | 28.7% | 12 | 6 | 25 |
| OG Anunoby | $3,500 | $3,300 | $6,000 | 12.2 | -3.3 | 20.8 | -5.3 | 0.59 | 10.9% | 8 | 1 | 24 |
| Serge Ibaka | $5,600 | $5,200 | $9,800 | 25.1 | -0.1 | 27.8 | -2.9 | 0.90 | 16.7% | 1 | 8 | 2 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | $6,800 | $6,200 | $12,200 | 25.8 | 4.7 | 22.0 | 2.5 | 1.17 | 18.3% | 30 | 26 | 3 |
| Delon Wright | $4,400 | $3,900 | $8,100 | 19.7 | 2.1 | 21.3 | 0.4 | 0.92 | 17.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jakob Poeltl | $4,300 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 16.8 | 1.5 | 18.1 | 2.1 | 0.93 | 12.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Fred VanVleet | $5,000 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 18.0 | 7.3 | 18.8 | 3.6 | 0.96 | 19.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – DeMar DeRozan (GPP)
Secondary Plays – DeMar DeRozan (Cash)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM ET
| Cleveland Cavaliers | Memphis Grizzlies | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213.5 |  | Vegas Total | 213.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -5.5 | Vegas Spread | 5.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 109.5 | Implied Team Total | 104.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -3.2 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | George Hill | J.R. Smith | Cedi Osman | LeBron James | Tristan Thompson | Projected Starters | Andrew Harrison | Tyreke Evans | Dillon Brooks | JaMychal Green | Marc Gasol | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 17 | 20 | 7 | 12 | 1 | DvP | 29 | 25 | 28 | 18 | 23 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 21 | 6 | 17 | 28 | 10 | DRPM Rat. | 27 | 27 | 17 | 20 | 29 | |
Cleveland Cavaliers
Was anyone else frustrated with the strange rotations the Cavaliers had last night? They have so much talent coming off the bench, yet Tyronn Lue refused to play any of them big minutes. He’ll have a chance to right the ship tonight, but the matchup is far from ideal. On the season, the Grizzlies are ranked 30th in pace of play and fifth in points allowed per game. The Cavaliers have an implied total of 109.5 points, which is the seventh highest of the slate, but slightly below their season average.
With the inconsistent rotation and the tough matchup, the only player I’m interested in tonight is LeBron James. He is close to matchup-proof, he has an elite usage rate, and he fills up all areas of the stat sheet. He hasn’t been as aggressive offensively over the last few games, but he is always a threat to post a triple-double. He offers such a high floor/ceiling combination that he deserves consideration in all formats. It’s not like anyone from the Grizzlies matches up well with him and there is plenty of value in the slate to be able to play one or even two superstars.
Notable Injuries
None
Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 110.2 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.5 (7 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -0.7 (17 of 22)
Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.9 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.9 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.3 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.2 (30 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hill | $4,500 | $4,500 | $8,400 | 19.8 | -4.6 | 26.4 | -1.1 | 0.75 | 16.2% | 18 | 17 | 21 |
| J.R. Smith | $4,800 | $4,600 | $9,600 | 17.3 | 7.7 | 29.7 | 1.7 | 0.58 | 12.2% | 12 | 20 | 6 |
| Cedi Osman | $3,800 | $3,900 | $7,400 | 6.3 | 11.6 | 9.2 | 15.1 | 0.68 | 11.5% | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| LeBron James | $11,300 | $11,200 | $20,600 | 52.7 | 7.4 | 37.0 | 1.7 | 1.42 | 29.3% | 21 | 12 | 28 |
| Tristan Thompson | $3,900 | $4,200 | $8,200 | 15.7 | 5.5 | 21.1 | 6.4 | 0.74 | 10.3% | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| Larry Nance | $5,600 | $4,800 | $9,300 | 23.7 | -2.4 | 22.0 | -2.4 | 1.08 | 14.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Rodney Hood | $4,700 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 23.9 | -3.4 | 27.5 | -4.2 | 0.87 | 23.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jeff Green | $3,800 | $4,000 | $7,400 | 18.5 | -0.3 | 22.4 | 1.8 | 0.83 | 17.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – LeBron James
Secondary Plays – None
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies are a team that is out of playoff contention and they don’t really have a lot of young talent that they can try to develop the rest of the season. They will be a difficult team to predict when it comes to fantasy production, especially given their pace of play. With that said, they have a tremendous matchup tonight against the Cavaliers, who are ranked 26th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Grizzlies’ implied total of 104 points is nearly five points above their season average.
I hate to say it, but I will be going back to the Andrew Harrison well tonight. He has shown plenty of upside when given minutes and the Grizzlies will potentially be missing four of their guards tonight. Harrison is only $4,300 on DraftKings despite averaging 25 fantasy points over his last five games. Tyreke Evans has some tournament appeal against this porous defense. If we knew he was going to play 35 minutes, I would lock him in as a core play. However, my expectation for Evans is to play around 30-32 minutes. Dillon Brooks and JaMychal Green are both intriguing tournament darts given their respective price points and matchups. Marc Gasol must have hit a wall before the All-Star break, but maybe the rest will do him some good. He’s an intriguing tournament play tonight. There should be plenty of fantasy production to go around, it’s just a matter of picking the right players.
Notable Injuries
Wayne Selden (Out)
Chandler Parsons (Out)
Mario Chalmers (Questionable)
Memphis Grizzlies Offense
Points Per Game: 99.2 (29 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.0 (17 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 4.8 (6 of 22)
Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.0 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.8 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.7 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.8 (13 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Harrison | $5,500 | $4,300 | $8,500 | 17.7 | 7.3 | 22.5 | 4.4 | 0.79 | 18.6% | 27 | 29 | 27 |
| Tyreke Evans | $7,900 | $7,900 | $14,500 | 34.9 | -2.0 | 31.0 | -2.6 | 1.13 | 27.7% | 20 | 25 | 27 |
| Dillon Brooks | $4,500 | $4,400 | $8,700 | 16.7 | 4.0 | 28.1 | 2.5 | 0.59 | 13.9% | 26 | 28 | 17 |
| JaMychal Green | $4,700 | $4,600 | $8,800 | 22.3 | 2.0 | 26.4 | -0.9 | 0.84 | 15.8% | 25 | 18 | 20 |
| Marc Gasol | $8,000 | $7,600 | $13,700 | 37.7 | -5.2 | 33.9 | -2.6 | 1.11 | 23.6% | 19 | 23 | 29 |
| Jarell Martin | $4,300 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 14.9 | 2.2 | 20.1 | 4.4 | 0.74 | 13.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |