NBA Grind Down: Friday, February 9th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
New Orleans Pelicans at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET
| New Orleans Pelicans | Philadelphia 76ers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 220.5 |  | Vegas Total | 220.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 5.0 | Vegas Spread | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 107.8 | Implied Team Total | 112.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.3 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jrue Holiday | DeAndre Liggins | E’Twaun Moore | Nikola Mirotic | Anthony Davis | Projected Starters | Ben Simmons | J.J. Redick | Robert Covington | Dario Saric | Joel Embiid | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 16 | 22 | 22 | 16 | 12 | DvP | 21 | 26 | 21 | 26 | 11 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 1 | 26 | 1 | 24 | 3 | DRPM Rat. | 2 | 11 | 28 | 21 | 2 | |
New Orleans Pelicans
Happy Friday everyone! We have a nine-game slate on tap tonight with plenty of value to go around. We start with the Pelicans and Sixers in a game that features a five-point spread and a total of 220.5 points. The Pelicans have the tougher matchup of the two teams, as the Sixers are ranked fourth in defensive efficiency and first in rebounding differential this season. I will note that the Pelicans would see a sizable boost as a whole if Joel Embiid (questionable) is unable to suit up. New Orleans currently has an implied total of 107.8 points, which is fairly high considering the fact that they are without DeMarcus Cousins.
The Pelicans have decided to mix it up and bring Rajon Rondo off the bench. DeAndre Liggins will enter the starting lineup, but will play shooting guard. The biggest beneficiary of this move should be Jrue Holiday, who will be the primary ball-handler to start the game. The Sixers have been tough on point guard this season, but Holiday should see 36-38 minutes. If we run the CourtIQ with Cousins and Rondo off the floor, we can see that Holiday has a 33% usage rate while averaging 1.27 fantasy points per minute. Rondo would typically be an intriguing tournament play, but there are arguably ten elite value plays in this slate. E’Twaun Moore offers decent value on FanDuel ($4,500), as small forward is ugly tonight.
Nikola Mirotic is volatile, but he’s finally playing a full complement of minutes with his new teams. In his first two game with the Pelicans, he has averaged 34 minutes and 31 fantasy points. After letting everyone down against the Jazz and then putting up a zero in the game that was postponed, people will be hesitant to play Mirotic at this price point. LeBron James is going to garner a ton of ownership tonight (rightly so), which could lead to a low-owned Anthony Davis. With Cousins off the floor this season, Davis has averaged 1.70 fantasy points per minute with an elite usage rate of 35%. He’s one of my favorite tournament plays of the slate and I will bump him up even higher if Embiid is unable to suit up.
Notable Injuries
None
New Orleans Pelicans Offense
Points Per Game: 110.7 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.8 (6 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -3.0 (15 of 18)
Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.5 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.5 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.7 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.6 (5 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jrue Holiday | $7,600 | $7,800 | $14,300 | 35.8 | 3.7 | 36.9 | -1.3 | 0.97 | 20.7% | 5 | 16 | 1 |
| DeAndre Liggins | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 15.1 | -0.4 | 0.56 | 7.6% | 19 | 22 | 26 |
| E’Twaun Moore | $4,500 | $4,400 | $8,700 | 21.4 | -1.8 | 32.0 | -4.8 | 0.67 | 14.6% | 15 | 22 | 1 |
| Nikola Mirotic | $7,000 | $6,800 | $12,400 | 28.8 | -0.4 | 25.5 | 4.4 | 1.13 | 22.0% | 9 | 16 | 24 |
| Anthony Davis | $11,700 | $11,100 | $19,600 | 51.1 | 5.2 | 36.4 | 0.8 | 1.40 | 24.6% | 7 | 12 | 3 |
| Rajon Rondo | $4,800 | $5,000 | $9,800 | 23.3 | 1.1 | 24.4 | 0.9 | 0.95 | 17.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Ian Clark | $3,700 | $3,700 | $7,100 | 10.2 | 8.0 | 16.8 | 7.2 | 0.61 | 14.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Darius Miller | $3,600 | $3,900 | $7,400 | 12.9 | -0.1 | 22.7 | 2.0 | 0.57 | 12.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jrue Holiday, Nikola Mirotic (GPP), Anthony Davis (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Nikola Mirotic (Cash), Anthony Davis (Cash), E’Twaun Moore (FD)
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers have only won five of their last ten games, but would sneak into the playoffs as the eighth seed if the regular season ended today. I’m not a big fan of either team, but I would love to see the Sixers and Pistons both find their way into the playoffs. The Eastern Conference is up for grabs for the first time in what feels like ten years. The Sixers draw one of the best matchups on the board. The Pelicans were one of the worst defensive teams in basketball with DeMarcus Cousins and are likely a bottom three defense now that he’s out for the year. Philadelphia has an implied total of 112.8 points, which is the second highest of the slate and five points above their season average.
The big question tonight is whether or not Joel Embiid is going to suit up. He is dealing with an ankle sprain and is currently listed as questionable. He’s responsible for so much of the team’s fantasy production that we could seriously consider a Sixers’ stack if he is ruled out. If Embiid is active and we don’t hear anything about a minute restriction, we can fire him up in both cash games and tournaments. The Pelicans are one of the worst rebounding teams in basketball and are ranked 20th in efficiency against centers. Dollar for dollar, Embiid is a slightly better play on DraftKings ($9,800) than he is on FanDuel ($10,400).
Ben Simmons has been in a mini-slump over the last month of play, but a matchup against the Pelicans could be what he needs to get going again. He’s such a unique point guard in that he has a huge size advantage over most players. He should be able to live in the paint tonight against a poor defense and it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest to see him post another triple-double. J.J. Redick offers decent value at shooting guard, although there are a handful of cheaper players that I would rather target given the nature of the slate. Robert Covington and Dario Saric are both intriguing tournament options if Embiid plays and would become core targets if Embiid is ruled out. In that situation, Richaun Holmes would become a viable play in all formats.
Notable Injuries
Joel Embiid (Questionable)
Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Per Game: 107.6 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.8 (2 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 5.2 (2 of 18)
Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Points Allowed Per Game: 111.1 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.3 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.4 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.8 (4 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Simmons | $8,700 | $8,500 | $15,700 | 41.2 | -3.0 | 35.1 | -0.4 | 1.17 | 22.9% | 18 | 21 | 2 |
| J.J. Redick | $5,400 | $5,200 | $11,200 | 25.7 | -4.3 | 32.2 | -3.2 | 0.80 | 19.5% | 30 | 26 | 11 |
| Robert Covington | $5,700 | $5,600 | $11,300 | 27.8 | -5.2 | 32.5 | 1.1 | 0.86 | 15.3% | 17 | 21 | 28 |
| Dario Saric | $7,100 | $6,300 | $12,400 | 27.9 | 3.3 | 30.7 | 3.0 | 0.91 | 18.1% | 27 | 26 | 21 |
| Joel Embiid | $10,400 | $9,800 | $17,200 | 45.3 | 1.2 | 31.7 | 1.5 | 1.43 | 27.5% | 20 | 11 | 2 |
| T.J. McConnell | $3,800 | $4,200 | $8,200 | 20.3 | -8.2 | 24.3 | -4.4 | 0.83 | 15.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – TBD (waiting on Embiid)
Secondary Plays – TBD (waiting on Embiid)
Los Angeles Clippers at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 PM ET
| Los Angeles Clippers | Detroit Pistons | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 217.5 |  | Vegas Total | 217.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 3.5 | Vegas Spread | -3.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 107.0 | Implied Team Total | 110.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.0 | Pace Projection +/- | 1.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Milos Teodosic | Avery Bradley | Danilo Gallinari | Tobias Harris | DeAndre Jordan | Projected Starters | Ish Smith | Reggie Bullock | Stanley Johnson | Blake Griffin | Andre Drummond | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 8 | 7 | 29 | 12 | 6 | DvP | 14 | 28 | 25 | 19 | 21 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 16 | 24 | 9 | 25 | 4 | DRPM Rat. | 4 | 23 | 7 | 27 | 11 | |
Los Angeles Clippers
After these two teams just completed the biggest blockbuster trade of the season, this game is full of revenge narratives. The Clippers lost their best player in Blake Griffin, but added some much needed depth in Tobias Harris, Avery Bradley, and Boban Marjanovic. Tonight’s matchup against the Pistons is a difficult one, but Detroit has played at a much faster pace since the trade. The Clippers come into the game with an implied total of 107 points, which is the seventh highest on the board.
Milos Teodosic and Austin Rivers are both listed as questionable for tonight’s game. Regardless of their availability, I don’t have interest in either point guard. With that said, their absence would give a boost to Lou Williams off the bench. Williams may not have to shoulder the load offensively anymore, but he will still be a great fantasy option as long as he is playing 30+ minutes a night. His price has come all the way down to $6,800 on FanDuel, making him one of the top point-per-dollar options at shooting guard.
Danilo Gallinari has played well over his last five games, averaging 33 fantasy points per contest. While the Pistons have struggled to defend small forwards, Gallinari feels overpriced in this slate. The same can be said about Tobias Harris. While the revenge narrative is brewing, price should always be the deciding factor when it comes to DFS. DeAndre Jordan has played well without Griffin this season, but he’ll have his hands full with Andre Drummond, who is playing at an MVP-caliber level over the last two weeks.
Notable Injuries
Milos Teodosic (Questionable)
Austin Rivers (Questionable)
Los Angeles Clippers Offense
Points Per Game: 107.6 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.0 (7 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -0.6 (12 of 18)
Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.0 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.7 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.3 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (21 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milos Teodosic | $4,600 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 20.7 | 0.8 | 25.6 | 0.3 | 0.81 | 19.0% | 18 | 8 | 16 |
| Avery Bradley | $4,600 | $5,000 | $9,600 | 22.7 | -2.2 | 31.6 | -1.8 | 0.72 | 20.1% | 3 | 7 | 24 |
| Danilo Gallinari | $6,700 | $6,500 | $12,200 | 25.5 | 7.1 | 31.3 | -1.5 | 0.82 | 19.4% | 25 | 29 | 9 |
| Tobias Harris | $7,100 | $6,700 | $12,300 | 29.2 | 5.7 | 32.6 | 1.7 | 0.90 | 21.2% | 13 | 12 | 25 |
| DeAndre Jordan | $7,600 | $7,000 | $13,600 | 33.7 | -2.4 | 32.1 | 0.1 | 1.05 | 11.7% | 14 | 6 | 4 |
| Lou Williams | $6,800 | $7,600 | $14,500 | 35.3 | 4.7 | 32.5 | 2.5 | 1.08 | 27.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Wesley Johnson | $3,800 | $4,200 | $8,300 | 18.7 | 2.3 | 24.5 | 1.0 | 0.76 | 11.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Lou Williams (FD)
Secondary Plays – Lou Williams (DK), Danilo Gallinari
Detroit Pistons
After trading away half their team for Blake Griffin, the Pistons did a nice job of picking up two role players at the trade deadline in Jameer Nelson and James Ennis. It sounds like they will be available to play tonight, but we won’t know for sure until closer to lineup lock. The Pistons’ offense has been firing on all cylinders since the Griffin acquisition and we should expect that to continue tonight against the Clippers, who have allowed the tenth most points per game this season. Detroit has the fourth highest implied total (110.5 points) and the best-projected point differential (+7.2) of any team in the slate.
While Nelson and Ennis will eventually play bigger roles moving forward, I don’t expect them to be heavily involved tonight even if they are active. Ish Smith is coming off of a solid five-game stretch where he averaged 32 minutes and 33 fantasy points. The entire mid-range of fantasy options is going to get overlooked tonight, as everyone will gravitate to the stars and scrubs approach. At his price point, Smith is one of the top point guard targets of the slate. Reggie Bullock and Stanley Johnson should both play minutes in the 30s again tonight, but they are getting expensive, especially when you compare them to some of the value plays from Cleveland.
There should be different levels of revenge that we factor into our decision-making in DFS. Griffin’s revenge tops all other revenge narratives. He spent his entire career with the Clippers, he didn’t expect to be traded, and the trade just happened less than two weeks ago. Not only that, but he gets to square off against Tobias Harris, who has one of the worst defensive real plus-minus (DRPM) grades of any power forward in basketball. The fantasy basketball gods will be shining bright on Griffin tonight. In the four games since acquiring Griffin, Andre Drummond has averaged 58 fantasy points per contest. He’s viable in tournaments again tonight, but most of my exposure to the Pistons will come from Smith and Griffin.
Notable Injuries
Jameer Nelson (Questionable)
James Ennis (Questionable)
Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 103.3 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.5 (4 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 7.2 (1 of 18)
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.1 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.0 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.7 (8 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ish Smith | $6,100 | $5,700 | $11,000 | 22.1 | 10.8 | 24.1 | 7.8 | 0.92 | 23.0% | 15 | 14 | 4 |
| Reggie Bullock | $4,600 | $4,500 | $8,700 | 15.7 | 5.8 | 25.3 | 8.5 | 0.62 | 12.1% | 20 | 28 | 23 |
| Stanley Johnson | $6,100 | $5,100 | $10,000 | 18.7 | 11.0 | 28.1 | 8.5 | 0.66 | 14.6% | 21 | 25 | 7 |
| Blake Griffin | $9,200 | $9,100 | $16,200 | 40.9 | 2.2 | 34.4 | 0.4 | 1.19 | 27.7% | 9 | 19 | 27 |
| Andre Drummond | $11,200 | $10,200 | $18,300 | 46.3 | 14.5 | 33.2 | 1.0 | 1.40 | 18.9% | 22 | 21 | 11 |
| Anthony Tolliver | $4,300 | $4,100 | $7,900 | 14.2 | 7.3 | 21.2 | 7.0 | 0.67 | 13.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Luke Kennard | $3,600 | $3,600 | $7,000 | 12.9 | 1.6 | 18.6 | 3.8 | 0.69 | 15.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Blake Griffin, Ish Smith, Andre Drummond (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Andre Drummond (Cash), Reggie Bullock (FD), Stanley Johnson (DK)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET
| Cleveland Cavaliers | Atlanta Hawks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214.5 |  | Vegas Total | 214.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -1.5 | Vegas Spread | 1.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 108.0 | Implied Team Total | 106.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.4 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jose Calderon | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Jeff Green | Tristan Thompson | Projected Starters | Dennis Schroder | Kent Bazemore | Taurean Prince | Ersan Ilyasova | Miles Plumlee | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 22 | 16 | 28 | 24 | 29 | DvP | 29 | 25 | 30 | 18 | 25 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 30 | 2 | 24 | 22 | 14 | DRPM Rat. | 7 | 24 | 22 | 25 | 29 | |
Cleveland Cavaliers
I fully expected to the Cavaliers to make some moves at the trade deadline, but I’m amazed at what they were able to accomplish without moving their first-round pick. They managed to get better defensively, they added youth, they added shooters, and they added depth. We still need to see if this team can gel, but if I had to pick a team to come out of the East today, it would be the Cavaliers. The four new acquisitions are not expected to play tonight, which leaves the Cavaliers with ten active bodies, two of which have yet to see the floor in an NBA game this season. A tight rotation and a matchup against the Hawks is the recipe for fantasy gold.
LeBron James and a bunch of scrubs are projected to score 108 points tonight — let that sink in for a minute. As long as this game stays close (1.5-point spread), the Cavaliers will be the top team to stack, even at elevated ownership. We’ll start with LeBron, who might be the safest cash game anchor that we have seen all season. He could play close to 40 minutes against one of the worst defensive teams in basketball and he’s going to have increased usage. I know that he’s going to be highly owned, but I see James as a lock in cash games and a tough fade in tournaments. I’d rather look to differentiate my lineups elsewhere instead of fading the King.
After James, we get into some serious value plays. Jose Calderon, J.R. Smith, Jeff Green, Kyle Korver, Tristan Thompson, and Cedi Osman should all play close to 30 minutes tonight. I wouldn’t be surprised if their rotation is only seven players deep. You can make a case for all six of these value plays, but I will rank them in order of my top point-per-dollar targets on each site:
FanDuel: Green, Thompson, Osman, Korver, Smith, Calderon
DraftKings: Osman, Korver, Green, Calderon, Thompson, Smith
It’s going to be a popular strategy, but the name of the game tonight is to target LeBron and then load up on the values around him.
Notable Injuries
Larry Nance (Doubtful)
Rodney Hood (Doubtful)
George Hill (Doubtful)
Jordan Clarkson (Doubtful)
Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 109.5 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.0 (5 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -1.5 (14 of 18)
Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.7 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.7 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.5 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Calderon | $4,500 | $3,200 | $6,700 | 9.3 | -8.8 | 15.8 | -13.0 | 0.59 | 10.8% | 23 | 22 | 30 |
| J.R. Smith | $4,400 | $4,800 | $9,300 | 16.9 | 2.2 | 29.8 | -1.2 | 0.57 | 12.1% | 13 | 16 | 2 |
| LeBron James | $11,500 | $12,100 | $22,300 | 52.5 | -5.5 | 37.1 | 0.7 | 1.41 | 28.9% | 30 | 28 | 24 |
| Jeff Green | $3,900 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 18.2 | -5.3 | 22.2 | -0.6 | 0.82 | 17.2% | 17 | 24 | 22 |
| Tristan Thompson | $4,700 | $5,000 | $9,900 | 15.5 | 4.9 | 20.6 | 5.5 | 0.75 | 10.6% | 24 | 29 | 14 |
| Kyle Korver | $3,600 | $3,800 | $7,300 | 14.7 | -0.1 | 21.4 | -1.7 | 0.68 | 14.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Cedi Osman | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,100 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 7.9 | 2.3 | 0.64 | 10.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kyle Korver, Cedi Osman, Tristan Thompson, J.R. Smith (FD), Jeff Green (FD)
Secondary Plays – J.R. Smith (DK), Jose Calderon (DK), Jeff Green (DK)
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks are playing in the second half of a back-to-back after losing to the Magic last night. They go from one favorable matchup to another, as they host the Cavaliers in a game that has shootout potential. On the season, Cleveland is ranked 26th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. While this is obviously a different looking Cavaliers’ team, it’s not like they are going to be great defensively. The Hawks have an implied total of 106.5 points, which is three points higher than their season average.
Dennis Schroder is dealing with some lower back tightness, but is expected to play tonight. Schroder is inconsistent and he doesn’t offer much in terms of peripheral statistics, but he has a 29% true usage rate and is facing a Cavaliers’ team that has allowed the second most fantasy points to point guards this season. Schroder is an elite tournament play, especially if you are looking to stack Cleveland and want to bring it back with a player from the Hawks. Kent Bazemore is overpriced given his recent form, but Taurean Prince stands out as a nice value play at small forward. He should play around 30 minutes, which gives him 30+ fantasy point type of upside.
Tyler Dorsey has been great off the bench, but could see his minutes scaled back if Marco Belinelli is back in the rotation. Keep an eye on that heading into lineup lock and avoid Dorsey if Belinelli is active. The Hawks’ frontcourt has been an easy fade for most of the season. They have so many bodies in the rotation that we can’t count on anyone playing over 25 minutes a night. Ersan Ilyasova and John Collins are my favorite targets from the pack, but playing them in a nine game slate is rather thin.
Notable Injuries
DeAndre’ Bembry (Out)
Marco Belinelli (Probable)
Dennis Schroder (Probable)
Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 103.7 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.5 (10 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 2.8 (5 of 18)
Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.2 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.9 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.6 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.9 (13 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder | $7,700 | $7,000 | $14,500 | 33.7 | -3.4 | 31.3 | -1.9 | 1.08 | 29.4% | 26 | 29 | 7 |
| Kent Bazemore | $6,400 | $6,000 | $12,300 | 28.0 | -0.7 | 27.9 | -2.8 | 1.00 | 20.2% | 25 | 25 | 24 |
| Taurean Prince | $4,500 | $4,900 | $10,100 | 23.6 | -0.9 | 30.1 | -1.2 | 0.79 | 16.7% | 28 | 30 | 22 |
| Ersan Ilyasova | $4,800 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 21.6 | -5.9 | 25.4 | -4.3 | 0.85 | 15.8% | 25 | 18 | 25 |
| Miles Plumlee | $3,500 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 12.4 | -1.9 | 17.0 | -1.6 | 0.73 | 9.9% | 22 | 25 | 29 |
| John Collins | $5,200 | $4,800 | $9,900 | 24.1 | -2.0 | 22.3 | 1.7 | 1.08 | 16.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Tyler Dorsey | $3,600 | $3,600 | $6,700 | 8.3 | 7.7 | 11.2 | 8.9 | 0.74 | 17.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Dewayne Dedmon | $5,100 | $4,700 | $8,900 | 23.0 | -0.6 | 23.2 | 0.0 | 0.99 | 15.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder (GPP), Taurean Prince (FD)
Secondary Plays – Dennis Schroder (Cash), Taurean Prince (DK), Tyler Dorsey (if Belinelli is out)
Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM ET
| Indiana Pacers | Boston Celtics | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205.0 |  | Vegas Total | 205.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 4.0 | Vegas Spread | -4.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 100.5 | Implied Team Total | 104.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.9 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Cory Joseph | Victor Oladipo | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | Projected Starters | Kyrie Irving | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Al Horford | Aron Baynes | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 1 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 8 | DvP | 10 | 11 | 10 | 15 | 28 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 20 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | DRPM Rat. | 26 | 1 | 29 | 13 | 18 | |
Indiana Pacers
This is one of the least intriguing games of the slate, so we don’t have to spend a ton of time breaking it down. The Pacers are playing without their starting point guard and they draw an awful matchup on the road against the Celtics. Even though Boston is playing in the second half of a back-to-back, they are still ranked second in points allowed per game and first in defensive efficiency. Indiana’s implied total of 100.5 points is the fourth lowest on the board and six points below their season average.
If you look at the table above, you can see that the Celtics are ranked ninth or better in fantasy points allowed to every position on the floor. Even with Collison out, a full Pacers’ fade isn’t the worst idea in a nine-game slate. Cory Joseph offers decent value, but there are better options in Cleveland. Victor Oladipo draws an awful matchup against Jaylen Brown, but his price is all the way down to $8,000 on DraftKings. This might be his cheapest price point the rest of the season. Myles Turner was one of my favorite tournament targets on Wednesday. While that obviously didn’t work out thanks to the postponement, he still feels underpriced on DraftKings at $5,800.
Notable Injuries
Darren Collison (Out)
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 106.7 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.5 (15 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -6.2 (17 of 18)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.8 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.0 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (22 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cory Joseph | $4,900 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 18.2 | 0.6 | 25.9 | 0.7 | 0.70 | 14.8% | 3 | 1 | 20 |
| Victor Oladipo | $9,700 | $8,000 | $13,800 | 41.6 | -1.9 | 34.4 | 1.1 | 1.21 | 27.0% | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $5,800 | $5,200 | $10,000 | 21.0 | 6.3 | 30.4 | 0.5 | 0.69 | 16.3% | 3 | 9 | 3 |
| Thaddeus Young | $5,400 | $5,300 | $10,700 | 26.6 | -3.1 | 32.7 | 0.1 | 0.81 | 15.2% | 13 | 3 | 2 |
| Myles Turner | $6,500 | $5,800 | $11,400 | 29.8 | -1.5 | 28.2 | -3.4 | 1.05 | 17.9% | 6 | 8 | 1 |
| Lance Stephenson | $5,600 | $5,200 | $10,100 | 21.0 | 3.5 | 23.3 | 0.9 | 0.90 | 18.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Domantas Sabonis | $4,900 | $5,000 | $9,600 | 26.6 | -0.7 | 25.5 | -0.6 | 1.04 | 19.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Victor Oladipo (DK), Myles Turner (DK)
Boston Celtics
The Celtics picked up a win in overtime last night against the Wizards. While back-to-backs are never ideal, they are one of the youngest teams in the NBA. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Pacers, who are ranked 19th in defensive efficiency and 23rd in rebounding differential. The Celtics’ implied total of 104.5 points may not seem like much compared to the other totals on the board, but it is slightly higher than their season average.
Game log watchers will see that Kyrie Irving played 33 minutes last night and immediately think he is off his minute restriction. I’m taking more of a cautious approach, as Irving only played 28 minutes in regulation and this is obviously their second game in as many nights. With so much value at shooting guard and small forward, I don’t see myself rostering Jaylen Brown or Jayson Tatum tonight. Surprisingly, my favorite two targets from the Celtics both come off the bench. Marcus Morris has quietly averaged 24 fantasy points over his last five games, while Greg Monroe scored 20 fantasy points in his Celtics’ debut last night. We know the best way to attack Indiana is with power forwards and centers.
Notable Injuries
Marcus Smart (Out)
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 103.1 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.5 (13 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 1.4 (8 of 18)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.6 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.6 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.6 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.4 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | $8,000 | $7,900 | $14,500 | 38.6 | -4.9 | 32.8 | -5.1 | 1.18 | 29.5% | 4 | 10 | 26 |
| Jaylen Brown | $5,500 | $5,500 | $10,700 | 25.6 | 0.7 | 31.5 | 0.6 | 0.81 | 17.9% | 23 | 11 | 1 |
| Jayson Tatum | $5,600 | $5,400 | $10,400 | 26.0 | -3.2 | 31.0 | 0.2 | 0.84 | 16.0% | 7 | 10 | 29 |
| Al Horford | $7,400 | $7,500 | $13,700 | 33.6 | 0.0 | 32.4 | -2.9 | 1.04 | 17.6% | 17 | 15 | 13 |
| Aron Baynes | $3,900 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 15.1 | 4.0 | 18.2 | 2.1 | 0.83 | 14.3% | 27 | 28 | 18 |
| Terry Rozier | $6,500 | $5,700 | $10,900 | 21.8 | 12.7 | 23.9 | 7.9 | 0.91 | 19.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Marcus Morris | $4,900 | $5,000 | $9,500 | 21.9 | 2.6 | 24.4 | 2.3 | 0.90 | 20.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Greg Monroe | $3,500 | $4,300 | $8,400 | 23.2 | -3.0 | 21.7 | -2.0 | 1.07 | 17.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Marcus Morris, Greg Monroe (FD)
Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET
| Denver Nuggets | Houston Rockets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 222.0 |  | Vegas Total | 222.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 8.0 | Vegas Spread | -8.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 107.0 | Implied Team Total | 115.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.2 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.7 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jamal Murray | Gary Harris | Will Barton | Wilson Chandler | Nikola Jokic | Projected Starters | Chris Paul | James Harden | Luc Mbah a Moute | Ryan Anderson | Clint Capela | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 7 | 24 | 19 | 4 | 23 | DvP | 27 | 5 | 15 | 22 | 14 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 2 | 18 | 1 | 28 | 2 | DRPM Rat. | 27 | 3 | 22 | 18 | 9 | |
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets didn’t make many moves at the trade deadline, but they got rid of Emmanuel Mudiay and brought in Devin Harris. If anything, a veteran presence like Harris should be good for Jamal Murray. Denver draws a mediocre matchup tonight against the Rockets, who are ranked 15th in points allowed per game and 12th in defensive efficiency. While the game does have a high total (222 points), the Nuggets are projected to score the exact same number of points as they are averaging on the season (107).
When I heard that Harris was going to be out tonight, I immediately wanted to play Murray. Then I saw his matchup against Chris Paul and changed my mind. While Murray will play 35 minutes in a pace-up game against the Rockets, targeting point guards against Paul is not a profitable strategy in the long run. I have more interest in Will Barton and Gary Harris, who will both play 35+ minutes in much better matchups. On the season, Houston is ranked 20th against shooting guards and 27th against small forwards when it comes to efficiency. The best part is that with all of the value at shooting guard, Barton and Harris will go under-owned in both cash games and tournaments.
Wilson Chandler has been in terrible form recently, but is priced at the bare-minimum on FanDuel. I prefer Cedi Osman for cash games, but Chandler is an intriguing pivot in tournaments. Torrey Craig is also an intriguing pivot off of the Cavaliers’ value plays. Trey Lyles continues to play well, but his price is a little too rich for my blood. Clint Capela is a solid low-post defender, but the Rockets have allowed the eighth most fantasy points to centers this season. Nikola Jokic is firmly on my radar in tournaments, as he can fill up all areas of the stat sheet.
Notable Injuries
Devin Harris (Out)
Denver Nuggets Offense
Points Per Game: 107.0 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.0 (7 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 0.0 (11 of 18)
Matchup vs. Houston Rockets
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.8 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.9 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.4 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.5 (9 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | $6,700 | $6,300 | $13,400 | 26.6 | 7.3 | 30.2 | 3.3 | 0.88 | 21.9% | 7 | 7 | 2 |
| Gary Harris | $6,500 | $6,200 | $12,200 | 30.5 | -1.3 | 35.0 | 1.3 | 0.87 | 18.8% | 20 | 24 | 18 |
| Will Barton | $7,400 | $6,400 | $12,700 | 29.7 | 6.5 | 32.0 | 5.4 | 0.93 | 20.2% | 27 | 19 | 1 |
| Wilson Chandler | $3,500 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 19.3 | -7.5 | 30.3 | -4.0 | 0.64 | 13.0% | 4 | 4 | 28 |
| Nikola Jokic | $9,900 | $8,900 | $16,000 | 40.5 | 5.7 | 31.7 | 2.8 | 1.28 | 22.2% | 11 | 23 | 2 |
| Trey Lyles | $5,600 | $5,000 | $9,800 | 20.9 | 4.8 | 20.8 | 2.4 | 1.00 | 18.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Torrey Craig | $3,500 | $3,400 | $6,700 | 10.0 | 4.7 | 15.6 | 5.4 | 0.64 | 10.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Gary Harris, Will Barton (DK), Nikola Jokic (DK)
Secondary Plays – Will Barton (FD), Nikola Jokic (FD), Wilson Chandler (FD GPP), Torrey Craig (FD GPP)
Houston Rockets
The Rockets were one of the best sources of value in Wednesday’s slate and that could be the case again tonight. Trevor Ariza has already been ruled out, while Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon are both listed as questionable. Houston draws a favorable matchup against the Nuggets, who are ranked below the league average in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Rockets have an implied total of 115 points, which is the highest of the slate.
Chris Paul has a truly elite matchup tonight. Jamal Murray is one of the worst on-ball defenders in basketball and as a whole, the Nuggets are ranked 28th in efficiency and 27th in DvP against point guards. The problem is that Paul’s minutes are down and his salary is up — that’s not a great combination. Even though James Harden has the tougher matchup of the two, I’d rather play him over Paul in both cash games and tournaments. With that said, LeBron James is far and away my favorite superstar in this slate.
We have to take a wait and see approach with the rest of the Rockets. If Anderson and Gordon are ruled out again, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Gerald Green, and P.J. Tucker would all become borderline elite plays. I honestly hope that doesn’t happen, as we already have too many value plays to choose from. Clint Capela minutes have been trending upward (30.3 over his last five games), but every time I point that out in the Grind Down, he goes back to playing 25 minutes a night. Capela is viable in tournaments on DraftKings ($6,900), but is significantly overpriced on FanDuel ($8,100).
Notable Injuries
Trevor Ariza (Out)
Ryan Anderson (Questionable)
Eric Gordon (Questionable)
Houston Rockets Offense
Points Per Game: 114.0 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 115.0 (1 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 1.0 (10 of 18)
Matchup vs. Denver Nuggets
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.9 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.2 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.1 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (19 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Paul | $9,900 | $9,500 | $17,500 | 42.8 | -3.1 | 32.1 | -0.1 | 1.33 | 26.0% | 28 | 27 | 27 |
| James Harden | $11,800 | $11,200 | $20,800 | 54.1 | 6.4 | 36.0 | 1.0 | 1.50 | 33.9% | 11 | 5 | 3 |
| Luc Mbah a Moute | $4,400 | $4,200 | $8,300 | 16.7 | 3.3 | 27.1 | 8.6 | 0.61 | 10.3% | 9 | 15 | 22 |
| Ryan Anderson | $3,800 | $4,600 | $9,300 | 19.3 | -1.8 | 28.0 | -2.2 | 0.69 | 12.9% | 23 | 22 | 18 |
| Clint Capela | $8,100 | $6,900 | $12,700 | 35.0 | 4.8 | 27.0 | 3.3 | 1.29 | 17.1% | 17 | 14 | 9 |
| Gerald Green | $4,200 | $5,000 | $9,800 | 20.8 | 1.6 | 25.0 | 2.2 | 0.83 | 19.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Eric Gordon | $5,500 | $5,800 | $11,500 | 26.5 | -17.1 | 32.1 | -12.9 | 0.83 | 22.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| P.J. Tucker | $3,700 | $3,900 | $7,700 | 16.4 | -0.7 | 27.7 | 7.5 | 0.59 | 8.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |