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NBA Grind Down: Friday, January 20th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-01-21 03:16:05

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Toronto Raptors at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET

Toronto Raptors Charlotte Hornets
torontonba Vegas Total 215.5 charlottenba Vegas Total 215.5
Vegas Spread 1.5 Vegas Spread -1.5
Team Total 107.0 Team Total 108.5
Pace +/- 0.1 Pace +/- -0.7
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Pascal Siakam Jonas Valanciunas Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Cody Zeller
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 18 27 14 8 28 Adj. DvP 7 6 12 23 7
DRPM -0.87 0.81 1.81 0.28 2.25 DRPM 0.85 -1.85 0.92 0.62 -0.45

Toronto Raptors

Friday is my favorite day of the week. Not only is it the start of another weekend, but the NBA always provides us with a full slate of basketball games. The first game of the night is between the Raptors and Hornets; two likely playoff teams in the Eastern Conference. The Raptors come into the game as 1.5-point underdogs with an implied total of 107 points. Toronto’s projection may seem high, but is is actually four points lower than their season average. It’s always important to compare team totals in two ways – to the other implied totals in the slate and to season averages.

Even though the Hornets have been stout as a whole, they do have some leaks defensively. They haven’t been particularly effective against opposing backcourts, which brings Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan into play for tournaments. Lowry averages nearly as many minutes as any player in the NBA and is underpriced on DraftKings ($8,300). The same can be said for DeRozan, as he is $1,100 cheaper on DraftKings than he is on FanDuel. The rest of the Raptors’ fantasy options hinge on certain injuries. DeMarre Carroll, Patrick Patterson, and Lucas Nogueira are all questionable.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyle Lowry $8,800 $8,300 1.07 37.2 -3.1 39.9 -0.4 26.7% 0.4% 18 -0.87
DeMar DeRozan $9,300 $8,200 1.15 35.5 -1.1 40.9 2.3 34.4% 0.6% 27 0.81
DeMarre Carroll $4,400 $4,900 0.70 26.4 -1.2 18.4 0.2 15.5% 1.1% 14 1.81
Pascal Siakam $3,500 $3,000 0.66 17.5 -4.8 11.5 -0.9 12.3% 0.0% 8 0.28
Jonas Valanciunas $5,700 $5,700 0.96 27.0 2.0 26.0 0.8 18.4% -1.9% 28 2.25
Terrence Ross $3,800 $3,800 0.77 22.1 6.0 16.9 2.4 18.7% -3.7% 14 N/A
Cory Joseph $4,400 $3,800 0.79 22.6 6.5 17.8 6.1 20.9% 0.6% 18 N/A

Elite Plays – DeMar DeRozan (DK)

Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry (DK), Terrence Ross (if Carroll is out)

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets are in the midst of a draught, losing seven of their last ten games. A win over the talented Raptors would go a long way for this team and I’m not surprised to see them listed as slight favorites. Charlotte has been very good at home this season with a 13-7 record. Last season, the Raptors were a team that we would avoid taking players against, but that hasn’t been the case this season. They are ranked 14th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. With an implied total of 108.5 points, the Hornets could be a sneaky team to target tonight in DFS.

Kemba Walker averages nearly four more fantasy points per game at home than he does on the road. That number may not leap off the page at us, but those four points can easily be the difference between reaching value and exceeding value. Walker is on my radar for tournaments on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Nicolas Batum is priced appropriately across the industry. I am going to wait and see if DeMarre Carroll suits up before making a final decision on Batum. I like his matchup a lot more if he’s going up against the likes of DeMar DeRozan and Terrence Ross. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has been a high-floor cash game target and there is no reason that should change tonight. With Jeremy Lamb out, his minutes are solidified. Marvin Williams is a decent value play at the thin power forward position. However, if possible, it looks like a good position to spend up on tonight. Cody Zeller has been terrific since coming back from injury, scoring at least 25 fantasy points in three of his last four games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kemba Walker $8,300 $8,000 1.09 33.8 3.4 36.7 -5.2 30.5% -1.2% 7 0.85
Nicolas Batum $7,400 $7,400 0.97 34.5 -0.2 33.4 0.8 23.5% 2.1% 6 -1.85
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $5,100 $5,100 0.76 29.6 3.9 22.4 5.3 14.4% -0.5% 12 0.92
Marvin Williams $4,900 $4,700 0.74 27.2 -0.4 20.3 -0.2 17.3% 1.1% 23 0.62
Cody Zeller $5,000 $5,000 0.87 26.7 4.0 23.1 2.4 16.5% 1.6% 7 -0.45
Marco Belinelli $4,000 $3,700 0.69 24.6 -3.4 17.1 -0.8 18.5% 3.3% 6 N/A

Elite Plays – Kemba Walker (GPP), Cody Zeller (FD)

Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker (Cash), Cody Zeller (DK), Nicolas Batum, Marvin Williams

Portland Trail Blazers at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

Portland Trail Blazers Philadelphia 76ers
portlandnba Vegas Total 208.5 philadelphianba Vegas Total 208.5
Vegas Spread -1.5 Vegas Spread 1.5
Team Total 105.0 Team Total 103.5
Pace +/- 0.7 Pace +/- 1.1
Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Maurice Harkless Al-Farouq Aminu Mason Plumlee Proj. Starter T.J. McConnell Nik Stauskas Robert Covington Ersan Ilyasova Joel Embiid
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 17 11 10 4 24 Adj. DvP 13 10 27 28 22
DRPM 0.42 -1.20 2.68 0.31 1.98 DRPM -2.60 -2.21 0.61 2.93 0.61

Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers have been involved in a number of blowouts recently, which has really hurt the fantasy production of their starters. With the line set at a measly 1.5 points tonight, we can expect their starters to see a full complement of minutes. On the surface, we always think of the Sixers as one of the best matchups for fantasy production, but that’s actually not the case. On the season, they are ranked right next to the Cavaliers and Raptors in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Blazers are actually projected to score 2.4 points fewer than their season average.

Damian Lillard draws a mediocre matchup against T.J. McConnell and Sergio Rodriguez. On the season, Portland is ranked 17th in fantasy points allowed to point guards. The reason to like Lillard isn’t the matchup, it’s the price. He is only $8,400 on FanDuel, which is about a thousand dollars cheaper than he was a few weeks ago. C.J. McCollum is priced appropriately on DraftKings ($7,300), but he’s going to see a lot of Robert Covington, who is an excellent defender. Maurice Harkless and Evan Turner are both intriguing punt plays at small forward, but neither stand out as great plays. Mason Plumlee is one of my favorite plays on DraftKings tonight. He is $5,200, people are hesitant to play him, and he draws an exploitable matchup against the Sixers. On the season, Philadelphia is ranked 24th against centers, 22nd in rebounding differential, and 20th in blocked shots allowed per game.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Damian Lillard $8,400 $8,500 1.13 35.6 -2.1 40.3 -0.1 32.3% 3.1% 17 0.42
C.J. McCollum $8,100 $7,300 1.00 34.4 -4.0 34.5 -5.1 28.3% 1.6% 11 -1.20
Maurice Harkless $4,400 $4,000 0.72 30.4 -7.5 21.8 -10.1 15.7% 0.2% 10 2.68
Al-Farouq Aminu $5,600 $5,000 0.75 28.0 0.7 21.1 0.6 15.1% 1.3% 4 0.31
Mason Plumlee $6,300 $5,200 1.04 27.7 -1.4 28.7 -2.0 19.9% -1.9% 24 1.98
Evan Turner $4,400 $4,100 0.78 25.4 -3.7 19.9 0.6 20.1% 2.8% 10 N/A

Elite Plays – Damian Lillard (FD), Mason Plumlee (DK)

Secondary Plays – Damian Lillard (DK), Mason Plumlee (FD), C.J. McCollum (DK)

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers have won six of the last seven games that Joel Embiid has played in. Management may not want it, but they could potentially make a run at the eighth and final spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. They are likely a year away, but they look like a team to be reckoned with moving forward, especially if they can get a franchise point guard in this upcoming draft. The Sixers draw an elite matchup tonight against the Blazers, who are ranked 27th in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. With an implied total of 103.5 points, we can give the Blazers’ offense a sizable boost as a whole.

T.J. McConnell won the starting job at point guard, but got hurt and Sergio Rodriguez came in and played well for a couple of games. McConnell returned to the lineup the other night and while he didn’t see the 35+ minutes that he was getting a week ago, he did score 29 fantasy points in 29 minutes. I like his matchup against Damian Lillard and the price is affordable across the industry. Given the uncertainty surrounding his minutes, he’s not exactly a cash game option, but feel free to use him in tournaments. Robert Covington has not shot the ball well this season, but I like his upside in a pace-up game against the Blazers, who are ranked 27th against small forwards. Ersan Ilyasova has played well as a member of the Sixers, but I only target him when someone from their frontcourt is out. Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic are taking over the league right now. They are both tough fades every time they take the floor. Embiid should have no issues against a Blazers’ team that is ranked 22nd against centers and 24th in rebounding differential.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
T.J. McConnell $5,500 $5,200 0.80 22.5 3.0 17.9 5.4 18.8% 0.3% 13 -2.60
Nik Stauskas $3,500 $3,500 0.57 26.0 -4.2 14.8 -5.4 16.3% -1.8% 10 -2.21
Robert Covington $5,200 $5,200 0.75 30.1 -1.2 22.6 -2.9 17.4% -3.0% 27 0.61
Ersan Ilyasova $5,800 $5,300 0.89 27.3 -1.7 24.4 0.9 22.2% 3.1% 28 2.93
Joel Embiid $8,400 $8,400 1.38 25.4 2.0 35.0 10.6 34.8% -0.7% 22 0.61
Sergio Rodriguez $4,000 $4,200 0.80 25.5 -1.6 20.5 -3.4 23.9% -1.8% 13 N/A

Elite Plays – Joel Embiid

Secondary Plays – T.J. McConnell (GPP), Robert Covington

Milwaukee Bucks at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Milwaukee Bucks Orlando Magic
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 210.5 orlandonba Vegas Total 210.5
Vegas Spread -3.5 Vegas Spread 3.5
Team Total 107.0 Team Total 103.5
Pace +/- -0.5 Pace +/- -1.2
Proj. Starter Giannis Antetokounmpo Malcolm Brogdon Tony Snell Jabari Parker John Henson Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton C.J. Watson Aaron Gordon Serge Ibaka Nikola Vucevic
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 28 15 22 12 27 Adj. DvP 4 22 29 14 9
DRPM -0.51 0.10 -1.01 0.69 1.93 DRPM 2.61 -0.25 -0.68 -1.54 1.50

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks are going to be a fun team to watch over the next few years. Hopefully Khris Middleton will be as effective as he was before his injury, because the core of Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker, and Malcolm Brogdon is a strong one. Tonight they head to Orlando to take on the Magic in a game that has sneaky shootout potential. The Bucks are listed as 3.5-point favorites with the over/under set at 210.5 points. The Magic were ranked inside the top eight in points allowed per game at one point this season, but have fallen all the way down to 17th. The Bucks have an implied total of 107 points, which is 2.2 points above their season average.

Giannis Antetokounmpo had a monster game against the Rockets and will look to repeat that performance tonight. I expect the Magic to stack Aaron Gordon on him, who is actually a tough, physical defender. With that said, Giannis has massive rebound, assist, block, and steal upside in this matchup. He is an elite play on both sites, although on FanDuel, it’s hard not to go up to Harden at shooting for only $1,100 more. Jabari Parker draws a tough individual matchup against Serge Ibaka and his price is a bit too expensive. I wouldn’t rule him out completely, but he’s more of a secondary play at power forward. John Henson and Greg Monroe continue to split minutes at center. This is an exploitable matchup for both, but I hate trying to predict the Bucks’ rotation at center.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Giannis Antetokounmpo $11,100 $10,600 1.36 34.7 0.5 47.3 4.7 30.1% 4.5% 28 -0.51
Malcolm Brogdon $5,400 $5,700 0.78 24.7 4.9 19.4 3.7 20.4% 0.8% 15 0.10
Tony Snell $3,600 $3,300 0.52 29.3 -1.3 15.3 -1.0 12.0% -4.2% 22 -1.01
Jabari Parker $7,400 $6,900 0.95 34.1 -1.0 32.5 -1.9 25.3% -1.8% 12 0.69
John Henson $3,500 $3,500 0.87 20.2 1.8 17.5 0.1 15.8% -3.4% 27 1.93
Greg Monroe $5,600 $5,000 1.14 21.2 -1.5 24.1 -9.2 23.8% 6.5% 27 N/A

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo

Secondary Plays – Jabari Parker, John Henson, Greg Monroe

Orlando Magic

The Magic forgot to show up the other night against the Pelicans. When they are involved in close games, they are typically a great team to target in DFS. The problem is that they are on the losing (and sometimes winning) side of way too many blowouts. As 3.5-point underdogs against the Magic, we shouldn’t have to worry about a blowout tonight, but you never know with Orlando. They come into the game with an implied total of 103.5 points, which is 3.8 points above their season average.

Everyone has their biases in DFS. One of mine happens to be Elfrid Payton. I play him more than I should, especially since I play mostly cash games. I’m always intrigued by his upside and his ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet. With Evan Fournier and Jodie Meeks out tonight, I will be going back to the well with Payton. As long as the game stays close, he has 35-minute type of upside and his usage should be high in this offense. The Bucks are tough against point guards, but I’m willing to overlook that tonight. It will be interesting to see who the Magic start at shooting guard. I hope that it is Mario Hezonja, but it could be C.J. Watson or D.J. Augustin. All three are interesting punt plays here, but I definitely prefer the one that draws the start. Aaron Gordon is averaging 32.6 minutes in his last three games. He provides excellent upside at his price point, but I am a little worried about foul trouble if he has to defend Giannis Antetokounmpo. With Fournier out, Ibaka becomes the number three option offensively. He isn’t an exciting play, but he’s certainly worth a look tonight. Nikola Vucevic should also see 30+ minutes if this game stays close. He is a little expensive on FanDuel ($7,400), but one of my favorite plays at any position on DraftKings ($6,700).

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Elfrid Payton $6,000 $6,000 0.94 28.7 2.1 26.9 12.1 25.4% 5.3% 4 2.61
C.J. Watson $3,500 $3,000 22 -0.25
Aaron Gordon $5,000 $5,400 0.78 27.3 5.3 21.3 4.0 19.6% -2.6% 29 -0.68
Serge Ibaka $6,200 $6,100 0.94 30.6 -1.4 28.8 -4.3 20.3% -2.5% 14 -1.54
Nikola Vucevic $7,400 $6,700 1.14 28.2 0.7 32.3 -4.4 25.1% -1.4% 9 1.50
D.J. Augustin $3,500 $3,300 0.73 20.5 1.4 14.9 -2.6 22.2% 0.4% 4 N/A

Elite Plays – Elfrid Payton, Aaron Gordon (FD), Nikola Vucevic (DK), D.J. Augustin (as a starter)

Secondary Plays – Aaron Gordon (DK), Nikola Vucevic (FD), Serge Ibaka, D.J. Augustin (off the bench)

Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM ET

Sacramento Kings Memphis Grizzlies
sacramentonba Vegas Total 199.5 memphisnba Vegas Total 199.5
Vegas Spread 8.0 Vegas Spread -8.0
Team Total 95.8 Team Total 103.8
Pace +/- -3.3 Pace +/- -1.8
Proj. Starter Darren Collison Arron Afflalo Matt Barnes DeMarcus Cousins Kosta Koufos Proj. Starter Mike Conley Tony Allen Chandler Parsons JaMychal Green Marc Gasol
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 12 5 3 6 1 Adj. DvP 25 17 19 19 14
DRPM -1.28 2.23 0.22 0.97 1.20 DRPM -2.56 -2.16 -1.35 0.51 2.82

Sacramento Kings

The Kings received some terrible news, as Rudy Gay ruptured his Achilles tendon and is out for the season. To make matters worse, they have lost eight of their last ten games and seem to be falling out of contention in the Western Conference playoff picture. They say bad things come in threes and a matchup against the Grizzlies is pretty much the sugar-free icing (gross) on the cake. The Kings come into the game as 8-point underdogs with an implied total of only 95.8 points. Not only is it the second lowest implied total in the slate, but it is 7.0 points below their season average. A lot of people will want to play DeMarcus Cousins, but Marc Gasol has held him to an average of 40.5 fantasy points in their last three meetings. The only play that I am considering here is Darren Collison and that’s only if Ty Lawson (questionable) is ruled out.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Darren Collison $4,700 $5,300 0.75 29.6 -0.7 22.2 5.1 21.5% -1.4% 12 -1.28
Arron Afflalo $3,500 $3,000 0.50 23.4 -1.5 11.6 -2.2 14.2% 1.6% 5 2.23
Matt Barnes $4,000 $4,100 0.71 24.9 -3.5 17.7 -1.2 17.2% 2.9% 3 0.22
DeMarcus Cousins $10,600 $10,200 1.41 34.7 2.4 48.9 3.7 36.5% 0.6% 6 0.97
Kosta Koufos $3,500 $3,000 0.79 19.3 -3.9 15.2 -3.6 14.2% 7.3% 1 1.20
Garrett Temple $4,100 $4,200 0.63 25.8 3.6 16.3 -0.7 14.2% -1.2% 5 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Darren Collison (if Lawson is out)

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies are looking to snap a two-game losing streak, but assuming they can stay healthy, they are a team that nobody wants to face in the playoffs. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Kings, who are ranked 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. Memphis is never really going to play up to their opponent’s pace, but they do have an implied total of 103.8 points tonight, which is 4.2 points above their season average. Mike Conley has played at least 31 minutes in each of his last eight games and has topped the 35-minute mark six times during that stretch. He is a point guard that always seems to get overlooked and he makes a lot of sense as a low-owned tournament play. JaMychal Green and Zach Randolph have both flashed upside recently, but I’m not a huge fan of either tonight against the Kings. Marc Gasol is cheap on DraftKings at $7,200, but he is only averaging 30.2 fantasy points in his last three meetings against DeMarcus Cousins.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Mike Conley $7,700 $7,300 1.05 32.3 3.0 33.9 4.2 29.5% 0.5% 25 -2.56
Tony Allen $4,600 $4,500 0.76 28.0 1.2 21.2 3.1 17.5% 1.7% 17 -2.16
Chandler Parsons $3,500 $3,200 0.62 17.9 0.8 11.2 1.0 20.0% -0.6% 19 -1.35
JaMychal Green $4,600 $4,500 0.73 29.3 -1.6 21.5 0.9 14.1% -2.2% 19 0.51
Marc Gasol $8,200 $7,200 1.05 34.2 3.6 36.1 1.2 27.8% -1.2% 14 2.82
Zach Randolph $5,900 $5,800 1.12 23.4 2.0 26.2 3.2 29.5% 1.1% 19 N/A

Elite Plays – Mike Conley (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Mike Conley (Cash), Marc Gasol (DK)

Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET

Golden State Warriors Houston Rockets
goldenstatenba Vegas Total 237.5 houstonnba Vegas Total 237.5
Vegas Spread -5.5 Vegas Spread 5.5
Team Total 121.5 Team Total 116.0
Pace +/- 2.6 Pace +/- 4.4
Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Kevin Durant Draymond Green Zaza Pachulia Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Ryan Anderson Montrezl Harrell
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 20 25 9 29 13 Adj. DvP 15 23 7 7 25
DRPM 1.85 -1.54 1.16 -0.51 -0.16 DRPM -0.18 -1.10 1.71 3.84 2.93

Golden State Warriors

This is the game that everyone will be waiting for tonight. We have two of the best offenses in the NBA and a potential preview of the Western Conference Finals if the Rockets are able to knock off the Spurs in the second round. There are very few times during the regular season where the Warriors are only 5.5-point favorites and we should take full advantage of that tonight. The over/under is currently set at 237.5 points, which is one of the 12 highest totals in the last 14 years (shoutout to Dan Back for the stat). The Warriors have an implied total of 121.5 points, which is the highest in the slate and 3.7 points above their season average.

It’s hard to put stock into the Warriors meetings against the Rockets last season because they didn’t have Kevin Durant, which obviously affects the other starter’s usage. With that said, Stephen Curry has had some success against Patrick Beverley in the past. In their last three meetings, Curry has scored at least 43 fantasy points in every game. Curry is playing his best basketball of the season and this is a rare occasion where we can actually expect him to play 35+ minutes. Klay Thompson will likely see James Harden defense, which is great news for Thompson. This is a blow-up spot for Klay and I plan to have more exposure to him than the field. Kevin Durant had another big outing against the Thunder and should be able to back it up with a nice outing against the Rockets. While I love the other three superstars from Golden State, Draymond Green is my favorite play here. The Rockets are ranked 29th against power forwards and he should see 35+ minutes in an uptempo game where he can fill up all areas of the stat sheet.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Stephen Curry $9,100 $8,700 1.18 33.6 -1.9 39.8 1.9 29.8% 4.3% 20 1.85
Klay Thompson $6,400 $6,500 0.86 34.3 -2.1 29.4 1.1 23.6% -1.2% 25 -1.54
Kevin Durant $10,500 $10,500 1.36 34.4 -3.1 46.9 4.4 27.8% -0.6% 9 1.16
Draymond Green $8,200 $7,900 1.12 33.1 0.6 37.2 5.2 19.0% -3.4% 29 -0.51
Zaza Pachulia $4,100 $3,500 0.91 18.6 2.7 17.0 2.4 14.7% 2.0% 13 -0.16
Andre Iguodala $4,000 $3,500 0.68 25.1 -1.5 17.0 2.6 11.7% 1.0% 9 N/A

Elite Plays – Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green

Secondary Plays – NONE

Houston Rockets

The Rockets have surpassed all expectations this season, after losing Dwight Howard in the offseason. They are 33-12 overall and appear to have the three seed locked up (granted, the season is only half over). Tonight’s game against the Warriors should be a fun one, as these are two of the best offensive teams in the NBA. The Rockets come into the game with an implied total of 116 points, which is the second highest in the slate and 1.5 points above their season average. I should also note that the projected pace of this game is 4.4 possessions above the Rockets’ season average.

James Harden’s fantasy points against the Warriors has gone up in each of their last four meetings – 32, 47, 58, and 66 fantasy points. I’m not one bit concerned about his matchup against Klay Thompson. Harden is the top play in the slate and it’s really not even close. Patrick Beverley is a little more expensive than I’d like him to be, but he could see 35 minutes tonight, as he’ll be tasked with defending Stephen Curry. He’ll also draw Curry’s defense on offense, which is never a bad thing. Trevor Ariza is a viable play in all formats, as he should see as much playing time as he can handle. He doesn’t have the best matchup against Kevin Durant, but Ariza’s $5,500 price tag on FanDuel is appealing. Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon are both viable tournament plays in a game where the Rockets will need their scoring.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Patrick Beverley $5,700 $5,600 0.84 31.1 0.5 26.0 8.3 15.9% 2.0% 15 -0.18
James Harden $12,200 $12,200 1.48 36.6 -0.7 54.2 4.3 38.9% 3.5% 23 -1.10
Trevor Ariza $5,500 $5,700 0.76 34.4 2.8 26.0 0.5 15.0% -1.3% 7 1.71
Ryan Anderson $5,000 $4,800 0.73 30.8 -7.7 22.4 -1.5 17.0% 7.1% 7 3.84
Montrezl Harrell $5,200 $4,900 0.94 19.5 5.9 18.3 8.5 17.9% -0.5% 25 2.93
Eric Gordon $6,100 $5,600 0.84 30.6 -0.5 25.7 -3.0 23.8% 3.2% 23 N/A

Elite Plays – James Harden, Trevor Ariza (FD)

Secondary Plays – Trevor Ariza (DK), Patrick Beverley, Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious