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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, April 1st

by Seth Yates (sethayates) Last Updated 2017-04-02 02:17:26

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Los Angeles Lakers at Los Angeles Clippers – 3:30 PM ET

Los Angeles Lakers Los Angeles Clippers
lalakersnba Vegas Total 224.5 laclippersnba Vegas Total 224.5
Vegas Spread 14.5 Vegas Spread -14.5
Team Total 105.0 Team Total 119.5
Pace +/- -0.4 Pace +/- 2.3
Proj. Starter Jordan Clarkson D’Angelo Russell Corey Brewer Julius Randle Tarik Black Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Luc Richard Mbah a Moute Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 9 5 21 20 10 Adj. DvP 29 26 28 30 29
DRPM 3.30 -1.72 2.32 0.65 3.28 DRPM -3.00 -1.84 0.52 -0.74 1.58

Los Angeles Lakers

Even though the Clippers rank eighth in total FPPG allowed this year, this isn’t nearly as tough as a matchup as it would appear. If you play the early-only slate, your options only include players from this game and the Hawks at Bulls. With so much value at SG/SF, those lineups pretty much build themselves. The way it works on FanDuel is that you can basically play two of the Clippers Big 3 (Griffin, Paul and Jordan). It’s pretty much the same story on DraftKings, as well. If Chris Paul is the option you leave out, D’Angelo Russell is a strong play. He’s averaging 33.2 FPPG over the past five games (FD scoring). The move to shooting guard has worked wonders for Russell. He even scored 32.9 fantasy points against these Clippers on March 21st.

Jordan Clarkson is also a viable option as the cheapest point guard you can use, unless you want to take a flyer on Tyler Ennis. Clarkson draws the toughest matchup here, as Chris Paul owns the best Defensive Real Plus Minus (DRPM) of any point guard in the league. Paul held Clarkson to just 14.1 fantasy points on March 21st. Julius Randle is priced somewhat awkwardly here, but he still projects out as the second-highest-scoring power forward on the early slate. Randle isn’t all that far behind Blake Griffin if we assume that Griffin plays limited minutes.

With Brandon Ingram back today but Ivica Zubac out, we should see Tarik Black, Larry Nance, and possibly Thomas Robinson share the minutes at power forward. We’ll also see Julius Randle fill that role in some small ball lineups. I don’t mind taking a chance on either Nance or Black as cheap options who could get to 20 fantasy points. Finally, Brandon Ingram is a bit of a wild card. He’s missed three straight games, but if he returns to playing minutes in the upper 30s, he’s intriguing against a Clippers team that ranks 22nd against small forwards. He does come with some risk, however, as he hasn’t proven to be a high-usage player even when he does see heavy minutes.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Jordan Clarkson $5,900 $6,000 0.77 29.1 10.8 22.6 5.4 23.8% -4.0% 9 3.30
D’Angelo Russell $6,700 $6,800 0.98 28.4 8.9 27.8 4.4 28.6% -4.0% 5 -1.72
Corey Brewer $3,500 $3,100 0.63 15.4 0.7 9.7 3.3 14.7% 4.7% 21 2.32
Julius Randle $6,600 $6,400 1.00 29.0 1.6 29.0 0.3 23.0% -1.4% 20 0.65
Tarik Black $3,700 $3,700 0.87 15.8 -1.6 13.8 -3.3 16.1% -1.9% 10 3.28
Larry Nance $3,900 $4,600 0.81 22.1 2.7 18.0 -0.9 13.7% 1.2% 20 N/A

Elite Plays – D’Angelo Russell and Julius Randle

Secondary Plays – Jordan Clarkson, Larry Nance, Tarik Black and Brandon Ingram

Los Angeles Clippers

On the other side of this game, the Clippers draw today’s best matchup across the board, as the Lakers are 29th in total fantasy points allowed and 26th or worse against every position individually. The Clippers come with some blowout risk, though, as Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan were all held out of the fourth quarter in their March 21st game against the Lakers. Chris Paul was still highly effective in that matchup, scoring 46 fantasy points in just 25 minutes. He’s the catalyst that makes this offense run, so if this game blows out as expected, Paul will almost certainly have a hand in it. Blake Griffin has been harder to trust, but he’s none what he needs to recently. He’s coming off back-to-back games of 46+ fantasy points (38+ minutes in each). The case for avoiding Griffin today isn’t the matchup; the Lakers allow more than a point per minute to opposing power forwards at 50.5 FPPG. We’ll want to use some of the cheaper power forwards today , though, which could make Griffin a victim of the numbers game. DeAndre Jordan is in a similar situation. He only had 29.7 fantasy points in 26 minutes last time out against the Lakers. If spending on center, I prefer Dwight Howard because of the safety he’s provided in Paul Millsap absence, but Jordan is an acceptable pivot.

With Austin Rivers sidelined, it’s tough to decide who would benefit from a blowout here. Rivers played 31 minutes in the Clippers win on March 21st. Jamal Crawford would seem to benefit the most. He’s averaging 20.8 FPPG over the past five games. If you’re paying down at shooting guard, I don’t hate the idea of using J.J. Redick either. He’s topped 27 fantasy points in two of three meetings with the Lakers this season. Finally, if you are trying to play the blowout, Raymond Felton and Marreese Speights enter the conversation, although it’s tough to forecast more than 20 minutes for either.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Chris Paul $9,400 $8,800 1.25 31.4 2.0 39.2 0.3 28.9% 0.5% 29 -3.00
J.J. Redick $4,500 $4,400 0.71 27.9 0.8 19.9 -1.1 21.2% -0.1% 26 -1.84
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute $3,500 $3,000 0.52 21.8 -0.1 11.3 -2.4 10.7% -0.9% 28 0.52
Blake Griffin $8,900 $8,500 1.15 34.0 2.3 39.1 -2.4 28.8% -1.6% 30 -0.74
DeAndre Jordan $8,200 $7,700 1.08 31.6 1.2 34.0 4.2 14.6% -0.7% 29 1.58
Jamal Crawford $3,900 $4,600 0.70 26.5 0.4 18.5 2.3 23.1% 0.9% 26 N/A
Austin Rivers $3,900 $4,000 0.67 27.8 -2.4 18.6 -4.9 20.8% -1.7% 29 N/A

Elite Plays – Chris Paul

Secondary Plays – Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, Jamal Crawford and J.J. Redick

Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls – 5:00 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks Chicago Bulls
atlantanba Vegas Total 203.0 chicagonba Vegas Total 203.0
Vegas Spread 4.5 Vegas Spread -4.5
Team Total 99.3 Team Total 103.8
Pace +/- -1.3 Pace +/- 1.2
Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Tim Hardaway Taurean Prince Ersan Ilyasova Dwight Howard Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Jimmy Butler Paul Zipser Nikola Mirotic Robin Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 24 12 14 18 4 Adj. DvP 25 25 30 7 5
DRPM -0.61 1.99 -0.01 1.28 0.13 DRPM -2.86 -1.05 1.43 0.23 2.89

Atlanta Hawks

The second game of the early slate features an over/under of just 203, with the Bulls favored by 4.5. DraftKings also included this game as part of their four-game main slate starting at 5:00 PM. Both teams here have implied totals lower than the Lakers and Clippers, and Vegas sees this game as something like 103-99. However, it should be more competitive, as the Hawks are battling for the five seed, while every game is a must-win for the Bulls as they try to claw their way to the eight seed.

The Bulls have been playing better basketball over the second half of the season, especially with Rajon Rondo now manning the point guard position. Rondo is a liability on defense, though, which drags the Bulls defense against point guards down to 24th. Other than a terrible game against Philadelphia on Wednesday, Dennis Schroder has been playing well recently, averaging 33.3 FPPG over the past five games. He’s topped 34 fantasy points in each of his last two meetings against the Bulls.

Even though the Bulls appear to be a tough matchup for opposing centers, Dwight Howard shouldn’t have any issues against Robin Lopez. Howard is averaging 40.9 FPPG over the past five games, and in three meetings with the Bulls this season, he’s scored 36.4, 21.2, and 38 fantasy points. He’s the safest center on the early slate.

With Sefolosha, Bazemore, and Dunleavy hurting right now, Tim Hardaway Jr and Taurean Prince become viable punt plays. Hardaway has been an up-an-down option over the past few weeks, but he’s played at least 32 minutes in each of the past six games. The main issue here is that we don’t necessarily know how the Bulls will match up. Jimmy Butler defending Hardaway would seriously limit any value here. As far as Prince goes, he’s only viable on FanDuel at $4,200, where you have to play a second small forward. He’s averaging 24.7 FPPG in three starts in place of Sefolosha, and he’s played 34+ minutes in each of those games.

As far as secondary options go, Ersan Ilyavsova is worth a look on FanDuel, where you need a second power forward, but he’s not a high-upside play. He’s still topping out right now at around 32 minutes. He’s scored 30+ in two of the past four games while topping 20 in all four. There’s value in that on FanDuel, but not so much on DraftKings.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Dennis Schroder $7,000 $7,400 0.96 31.4 5.3 30.1 3.4 30.5% 6.0% 24 -0.61
Tim Hardaway $5,500 $6,100 0.79 26.8 10.1 21.1 5.4 22.5% -1.5% 12 1.99
Taurean Prince $4,200 $4,800 0.71 15.0 16.3 10.7 9.9 16.9% -0.9% 14 -0.01
Ersan Ilyasova $5,000 $5,900 0.90 26.4 5.0 23.6 2.7 21.5% -2.3% 18 1.28
Dwight Howard $7,600 $8,000 1.11 29.9 3.8 33.2 7.5 18.4% 3.7% 4 0.13

Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder and Dwight Howard

Secondary Plays – Tim Hardaway Jr., Taurean Prince and Ersan Ilyasova

Chicago Bulls

On the other side of this game, there are a couple of Bulls in play. The Hawks rank 17th in total FPPG allowed. The best place to exploit the Hawks is the guard positions and small forward. That plays right into how we would like to deploy the Bulls in this matchup.

Per CourtIQ, Jimmy Butler owns a 32.1 percent usage rate and averages 47.7 fantasy points per 36 minutes with Dwyane Wade off the court this season. Butler is not only the top small forward play on the slate; he’s the top overall play. He’s averaging 53.1 FPPG over the past five games. The Hawks did manage to hold Butler to 21.3 fantasy points in one meeting this season but he had 54.3 and 62.3 in the other two. There isn’t another small forward on this slate that can come close to matching Butler’s output today.

The rest of the Bulls draw secondary consideration. Rajon Rondo has a good matchup against Dennis Schroder but he’s too inconsistent when we’re forced to pay $6,900 for him. He’s averaging 34.5 FPPG over the past five games. We would need at least that much from Rondo today. I feel more comfortable counting on Schroder or Russell to get there as opposed to Rondo.

Nikola Mirotic is averaging 31.1 FPPG over the past five games. He has a tough matchup inside against the Hawks, but he’s still viable on FanDuel, where you need a second power forward. The one option I’m intrigued by in tournaments, though, is Denzel Valentine. He’s played 30+ minutes in three of the past five games. He also helps fill a shooting guard position that is otherwise weak.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Rajon Rondo $6,900 $6,900 0.91 26.6 5.3 24.2 10.4 22.5% 0.3% 25 -2.86
Jimmy Butler $9,900 $9,600 1.13 36.9 2.5 41.7 11.5 28.6% -2.2% 25 -1.05
Paul Zipser $3,700 $3,500 0.53 18.3 10.5 9.8 5.4 14.7% 0.5% 30 1.43
Nikola Mirotic $5,500 $6,000 0.84 23.7 9.0 20.0 11.2 19.2% 0.1% 7 0.23
Robin Lopez $4,900 $4,600 0.78 27.9 -1.3 21.8 -0.7 17.2% 0.7% 5 2.89

Elite Plays – Jimmy Butler

Secondary Plays – Rajon Rondo, Nikola Mirotic and Denzel Valentine (GPP only)

Orlando Magic at Brooklyn Nets – 6:00 PM ET

Orlando Magic Brooklyn Nets
orlandonba Vegas Total 222.0 brooklynnba Vegas Total 222.0
Vegas Spread 3.5 Vegas Spread -3.5
Team Total 109.3 Team Total 112.8
Pace +/- 4.9 Pace +/- 0.1
Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Terrence Ross Aaron Gordon Nikola Vucevic Proj. Starter Jeremy Lin Randy Foye Caris LeVert Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Brook Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 30 28 29 25 27 Adj. DvP 26 23 15 26 22
DRPM -0.37 -1.74 -1.09 1.24 0.30 DRPM -0.49 -0.81 -1.30 -0.79 2.03

Orlando Magic

The third game of the day starts tonight’s three-game late slate on FanDuel. The over/under here is 222 with the Nets favored by 3.5. Neither team has anything except pride to play for, as the Magic have been eliminated from the playoffs and the Nets have all but locked up the worst record in the league. The Nets play at a pace of 103.6 possessions per 48 minutes while the Magic play at 98.3, meaning this should be a pace-up game for the Magic. The Nets also don’t play any defense, ranking 30th in total FPPG allowed.

Aaron Gordon stands out as the top option for the Magic. There aren’t any high-priced power forwards on the late slate. Gordon is averaging 29.8 FPPG over the past five games. He’s coming off a 58.7 fantasy point game against Boston and will certainly not go overlooked here. The absence of Jeff Green also helps here as Gordon has played at least 38 minutes in each of the past three games. He’s the safest power forward on the late slate.

Terrence Ross is a little too cheap for this matchup, especially considering that small forward isn’t the strongest position tonight. Ross is averaging 26.6 FPP over the past five games. He’s finally put things together, topping 24 fantasy points in each of the past six games. He also played 37 and 45 minutes the past two games, as the Magic were short-handed at forward with Green out.

Even though the Nets are a great matchup across the board, the rest of the Magic starters don’t stand out in any way. You aren’t wrong if you play Elfrid Payton, Evan Fournier, or Nikola Vuvevic, but in all three cases, I like other options at their positions better. We’re still talking about a Magic team that has the second-lowest implied total of the late slate.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Elfrid Payton $7,300 $7,400 0.96 29.3 3.1 28.3 5.2 25.3% -1.0% 30 -0.37
Evan Fournier $5,600 $5,600 0.78 32.9 -0.6 25.5 1.7 24.0% 1.4% 28 -1.74
Terrence Ross $4,400 $5,100 0.73 24.7 7.4 17.9 8.7 18.6% 2.9% 29 -1.09
Aaron Gordon $5,400 $5,500 0.78 28.2 5.1 22.0 1.2 19.6% -3.4% 25 1.24
Nikola Vucevic $8,300 $7,600 1.17 28.8 2.1 33.8 7.3 25.4% -0.6% 27 0.30

Elite Plays – Aaron Gordon

Secondary Plays – Terrence Ross

Brooklyn Nets

With the worst record in the league pretty much locked up, the Nets have actually been competitive and even won a couple of games recently. The matchup here is not bad for the Nets. The Magic are 26th in total FPPG allowed. That number is somewhat of a compromise between playing at a slower pace yet ranking 21st in defensive efficiency allowing 107.5 points per 100 possessions.

Jeremy Lin stands out as the top play here. Lin has finally seen his minutes increase to around 30 per game, and he’s topped 34 fantasy points in two of the last three games. The Magic are 26th against point guards, as Elfrid Payton owns a -0.49 DRPM, which ranks 33 of 89 among point guards. Lin had 24.9 fantasy points in just 19 minutes in his only meeting with the Magic this season. He is realistically the cheapest you can go at point guard tonight outside of maybe Kris Dunn.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is the other option that is cash game viable tonight for the Nets. As you are probably aware, the Nets have one of the deepest rotations in the league, regularly playing 12 players. About nine of those players see 20-24 minutes. That makes targeting them a risky proposition on most nights. Hollis-Jefferson has topped 30 fantasy points in four of the past five games, scoring at least 27 in all of them. While Hollis-Jefferson is listed as a small forward, he actually plays power forward, and he’ll face a Magic team that is 26th against the position and that will be missing Quincy Acy. That should put Hollis-Jefferson on track to play around 30 minutes.

While I don’t hate the idea of using Brook Lopez, he doesn’t stand out as someone who is necessary on this slate given that Karl-Anthony Towns is an option. In tournaments, you can make the case for Lopez. He’s priced appropriately and is averaging 29.5 FPPG over the past five games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Jeremy Lin $5,900 $6,100 1.10 23.5 2.8 25.7 2.1 28.9% 0.1% 26 -0.49
Randy Foye $3,500 $3,000 0.58 19.0 -1.6 11.0 -3.7 16.1% -3.6% 23 -0.81
Caris LeVert $4,000 $3,700 0.71 21.5 1.6 15.3 -0.4 16.2% 1.1% 15 -1.30
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson $5,000 $5,600 0.90 22.1 1.0 19.9 11.0 19.2% 7.6% 26 -0.79
Brook Lopez $7,000 $6,700 1.09 29.6 -1.8 32.3 -2.8 28.1% -0.7% 22 2.03

Elite Plays – Jeremy Lin and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

Secondary Plays – Brook Lopez

Sacramento Kings at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM ET

Sacramento Kings Minnesota Timberwolves
sacramentonba Vegas Total 210.0 minnesotanba Vegas Total 210.0
Vegas Spread 11.5 Vegas Spread -11.5
Team Total 99.3 Team Total 110.8
Pace +/- -1.8 Pace +/- -2.0
Proj. Starter Darren Collison Buddy Hield Garrett Temple Willie Cauley-Stein Kosta Koufos Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Brandon Rush Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 7 17 16 4 19 Adj. DvP 19 21 27 28 23
DRPM 0.93 0.05 -2.47 3.74 -1.39 DRPM -1.77 -2.65 -0.14 0.73 2.67

Sacramento Kings

Our fourth game of the night is the second on the late slate. This game features a 210 over/under with the Timberwolves favored by 11.5. Of the six teams playing on the late slate (eight on DK), the Kings are easily the least targetable. This is the second game of a back-to-back, and the Kings have seemingly been trolling fantasy sports players for weeks. The three probable players above rested last night, so they should be good to go. It seems unlikely that Tyreke Evans will play, as he’s often missed one game or the other of back-to-backs. As far as the matchup goes, these are the two slowest-paced teams on the slate. The Timberwolves are ninth overall in FPPG allowed.

Even on a short slate, it’s tough to find anything to love here, although Buddy Hield stands out as the best play. He was the piece the Kings coveted when they traded away DeMarcus Cousins, and although he’s had his moments, he’s been so up-and-down that it’s hard to get behind him on a slate that offers plenty of value elsewhere and better options at shooting guard.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Darren Collison $5,700 $5,000 0.77 30.5 -1.9 23.4 2.0 22.0% 1.3% 7 0.93
Buddy Hield $5,400 $5,400 0.71 22.2 8.9 15.8 9.4 20.8% -0.5% 17 0.05
Garrett Temple $4,000 $3,600 0.64 26.5 -1.2 16.9 0.2 15.1% 3.3% 16 -2.47
Willie Cauley-Stein $6,200 $5,700 0.85 18.0 12.0 15.4 10.0 18.7% -4.6% 4 3.74
Kosta Koufos $4,100 $3,300 0.80 20.0 2.4 16.0 1.7 15.0% 0.1% 19 -1.39
Skal Labissiere $4,300 $4,500 0.96 15.4 8.5 14.7 3.9 20.9% -5.7% 4 N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Buddy Hield

Minnesota Timberwolves

On the other side of this game, the Timberwolves are all but eliminated from the playoffs. They’re still heavy favorites here in their matchup with the Kings, though, and their players’ minutes are always secure; in general, the Timberwolves are one of the teams I worry about the least in a possible blowout. The Kings rank 20th in total FPPG allowed and are 19th or worse against every single position individually.

Karl-Anthony Towns is the top play both on the Timberwolves and on the late slate in general. He’s averaging 45.1 FPPG over the last five games. Since the All-Star break trade of Cousins, the Kings rank 27th in defensive efficiency, allowing 110.7 points per 100 possessions. They don’t have anyone on their roster capable of stopping Towns, which he proved when these teams met on February 27th, when he scored 56.4 fantasy points.

Andrew Wiggins stands out as the second-best play here. The Kings are 27th in the league defending small forward. Wiggins had 41.3 fantasy points when they met on February 27th. The main issue with Wiggins is that he only contributes in one category (points) for the most part: despite playing 36 minutes per game on a nightly basis, Wiggins often fails to top 30 fantasy points if his shot isn’t falling. He’s still the top projected small forward on the late slate.

As far as the other options go, Ricky Rubio and Gorgui Dieng are acceptable plays, but we can’t overdo it on options from a Timberwolves team that is projected to win by 12 in the slowest-paced game of the night. If you want to play the blowout angle, Kris Dunn makes a fine value option. While Dunn is listed as a point guard, he’s helping fill minutes at shooting guard, as well. Over the past four games, Dunn has played 64 minutes with Ricky Rubio. That stretch does include one overtime game, but it’s working out to about 16 minutes per game that Dunn is playing alongside Rubio. He’s scored at least 20 fantasy points in all four of those games, and he is safe enough if the game remains close while also being a hedged play against a possible blowout.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Ricky Rubio $8,100 $7,900 0.93 32.6 2.4 30.4 9.2 21.8% 6.7% 19 -1.77
Brandon Rush $3,500 $3,000 0.45 20.9 -3.8 9.4 -3.4 9.9% 0.5% 21 -2.65
Andrew Wiggins $7,300 $7,200 0.85 37.3 0.7 31.9 0.8 28.0% 0.7% 27 -0.14
Gorgui Dieng $6,000 $6,200 0.79 32.2 6.3 25.5 6.0 14.6% -0.3% 28 0.73
Karl-Anthony Towns $10,600 $10,400 1.21 37.0 2.0 44.7 0.3 27.1% -1.0% 23 2.67
Kris Dunn $4,300 $4,500 0.69 17.2 11.6 11.8 11.6 16.6% -3.0% 19 N/A

Elite Plays – Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins

Secondary Plays – Kris Dunn (Fringe Elite Play), Gorgui Dieng and Ricky Rubio

Phoenix Suns at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:00 PM ET

Phoenix Suns Portland Trail Blazers
phoenixnba Vegas Total 222.0 portlandnba Vegas Total 222.0
Vegas Spread 12.0 Vegas Spread -12.0
Team Total 105.0 Team Total 117.0
Pace +/- 0.6 Pace +/- 4.0
Proj. Starter Tyler Ulis Devin Booker T.J. Warren Marquese Chriss Alex Len Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Maurice Harkless Noah Vonleh Meyers Leonard
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 18 7 9 24 17 Adj. DvP 27 18 13 29 26
DRPM -1.77 -2.17 0.27 1.48 0.46 DRPM -0.93 -2.24 -2.76 -1.19 1.33

Phoenix Suns

The final game of the night features a 222 over/under with a spread of 12. The Blazers are currently holding onto the eight seed in the West. They still need to win out, as the Nuggets are just two games back. Tonight, they’ll face a Suns team that gave up on the season at the All-Star break. The Suns are just one game behind the Lakers for the second-worst record in the league.

The top player on this side of the game is Devin Booker. Over the past five games, Booker is averaging 44.9 FPPG. That number is obviously buoyed a 91.6 game against Celtics and a 47.9 against the Clippers. A more reasonable expectation for Booker is somewhere around the 37.5 he scored against the Blares on March 12th. What we can count on here is for Booker to play at least the 34 minutes he’s played in each of the last five games.

The other options worth considering here are T.J. Warren, Tyler Ulis and Alan Williams. Of those three, Warren is the best option because he helps fill small forward. Warren is averaging 33.5 FPPG over the past five games. While the Blazers rank ninth against small forwards, this isn’t a bad matchup. Warren had 22.2 fantasy points when he last played the Suns on March 12th. That’s on the low end of what we can expect tonight. Warren has no real competition for minutes, as he’s played 38+ in each of the last three games. Given that volume of minutes, he should be able to find a way to run into some fantasy points.

As far as Ulis goes, he’s a virtual lock to play heavy minutes; he’s played at least 39 in each of the past three. He’s priced at market value. He doesn’t stand out in any way, though, compared to similarly-priced point guards. Williams has a different issue. On FanDuel, he’ll cost you the ability to play Towns, as you can only use one center. On DraftKings, where you can use two centers, Williams is more viable, but he’s still averaging just 20.3 FPPG over the past five. We can get that kind of production from Meyers Leonard for $1,900 less.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Tyler Ulis $6,400 $7,100 0.81 16.3 23.6 13.2 18.8 22.9% -4.8% 18 -1.77
Devin Booker $8,000 $7,500 0.86 34.9 4.4 30.0 21.6 28.1% 8.5% 7 -2.17
T.J. Warren $6,600 $7,000 0.79 30.8 8.1 24.5 12.9 18.6% 3.3% 9 0.27
Marquese Chriss $5,000 $5,300 0.80 20.9 6.2 16.8 5.1 18.9% 3.9% 24 1.48
Alex Len $4,500 $4,200 0.92 20.3 2.8 18.6 3.5 16.6% 0.5% 17 0.46
Alan Williams $4,700 $4,900 1.14 14.4 5.7 16.5 2.4 20.1% -1.4% 17 N/A

Elite Plays – Devin Booker

Secondary Plays – T.J. Warren, Tyler Uils and Alan Williams (DK)

Portland Trail Blazers

On the other side of this game, the most interesting thing here is that the Blazers announced yesterday that Jusuf Nurkic will miss the rest of the regular season with a fractured leg. Meyers Leonard and Noah Vonleh will need to fill the minutes at center today. They are both power forwards on FanDuel and PF/C on DraftKings.

Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum stand out as the top plays here. Lillard owns a true usage rate of 32.6 percent, while McCollum checks in at 27.6 percent. The Suns have struggled to defend guards all season ranking 27th against point guards and 18th against shooting guards. Lillard is averaging 48.5 FPPG over the past five games, as he’s been single-handedly trying to carry the Blazers to the playoffs. In three meetings with the Suns this season, he’s scored 47.2, 44.5, and 40.5 fantasy points. Even though we’ll have to pay a premium, he’s easily the safest option at point guard.

C.J. McCollum comes with slightly more risk than Damian Lillard. He’s failed to top 26 fantasy points in four of the past six games. The good news is that the other two games in that span were 50.5 and 40.8. McCollum does have a great history against the Suns, scoring 38.8, 53.7, and 34.8 fantasy points in three meetings.

As I mentioned above, this will be our first chance to see the Blazers without Jusuf Nurkic. Meyers Leonard figures to be the main beneficiary here, as Noah Vonhleh was already starting at power forward. Leonard owns a 16.1 percent usage rate this season off the bench compared to 13.8 percent in seven games as a starter. He’s not going to light the world on fire by any means, but the matchup here is pretty good, as the Suns rank 26th against center position. Leonard also played well in his matchup with the Suns earlier this year, posting 22.5 fantasy points in 27 minutes. Given that he’s nearly minimum price, Leonard is worth a look as a value option. You could also take a look at Evan Turner, Al-Farouq Aminu and Maurice Harkless. All three will benefit from more small-ball with Nurkic out.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Damian Lillard $9,500 $9,700 1.15 35.8 -2.5 41.1 3.2 32.6% -1.3% 27 -0.93
C.J. McCollum $6,900 $7,600 0.96 34.9 -2.1 33.4 -3.4 27.6% -0.2% 18 -2.24
Maurice Harkless $4,000 $4,300 0.70 28.8 -5.7 20.1 -5.4 15.0% -1.4% 13 -2.76
Noah Vonleh $3,500 $3,800 0.69 15.7 9.3 10.9 3.9 12.9% -3.6% 29 -1.19
Meyers Leonard $3,500 $3,000 0.70 15.7 -2.8 11.0 -3.1 16.1% -0.6% 26 1.33
Al-Farouq Aminu $4,800 $4,900 0.75 28.8 -1.1 21.7 4.1 15.1% 1.7% 29 N/A
Allen Crabbe $4,100 $4,400 0.59 28.6 0.2 16.9 4.7 14.4% -0.4% 18 N/A

Elite Plays – Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum

Secondary Plays -Meyers Leonard and Al-Farouq Aminu

About the Author

sethayates
Seth Yates (sethayates)

Seth Yates hails from Dayton, Ohio. Seth started playing DFS during the NBA Playoffs in 2012. Seth rose to stardom in 2014 when he won the NFL Preseason Bomb using picks he blogged about. When he isn’t playing DFS, Seth is a Financial Analyst for the Air Force. Even though paying taxes on DFS isn’t fun, Seth re-invests your taxes back into DFS for you.