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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, December 26th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-12-28 14:19:03

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Washington Wizards at Brooklyn Nets – 4:00 PM

Washington Wizards Brooklyn Nets
washingtonnba Vegas Total 206.0 brooklynnba Vegas Total 206.0
Vegas Sprd -3.0 Vegas Sprd 3.0
Team Proj. 104.5 Team Proj. 101.5
Team Pace 100.50 Team Pace 98.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter John Wall Garrett Temple Kelly Oubre Jared Dudley Marcin Gortat Proj. Starter Jarrett Jack Bojan Bogdanovic Joe Johnson Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez
Opp. Season 28 25 20 6 26 Opp. Season 7 29 29 8 9
Opp. Last 7 23 18 9 18 27 Opp. Last 7 9 11 26 7 16

Washington Wizards

Record: 13-14 — Road: 6-7 — Last 10: 5-5

The Wizards have won five of their last ten games, as they head to Brooklyn to take on the Nets tonight. This should be a fast-paced game between two below average teams defensively. The Wizards are projected to score 104.5 points, which is the fifth-highest team total on the board.

As mentioned above, the Nets have not fared well defensively this season. They are ranked 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive effciency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Bradley Beal remains out, while Otto Porter, Nene Hilario, and Drew Gooden are all questionable.

Elite Plays

John Wall

Wall has been terrific recently, scoring at least 41 fantasy points in five of his last six games. His price has come up, but he will still have to take over offensively with all of the injuries to the Wizards.

FD — $10,000 — PG
DK — $9,600 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.9 | Last Five Games: 23.9
Min/Game — Season: 35.3 | Last Five Games: 37.0
FP/Game — Season: 39.8 | Last Five Games: 38.8

Marcin Gortat

Even if Nene Hilario is able to return to the lineup tonight, Gortat should still see close to 35 minutes of playing time in a favorable matchup against the Nets. He has been in great form recently, averaging 35.5 fantasy points in his last five games.

FD — $7,100 — C
DK — $6,900 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.8 | Last Five Games: 18.0
Min/Game — Season: 30.9 | Last Five Games: 35.9
FP/Game — Season: 28.7 | Last Five Games: 35.5

Secondary Plays

Garrett Temple

Temple has really stepped up his play with Otto Porter and Bradley Beal out. If Porter is unable to suit up again tonight, Temple would make a strong value play at PG/SG.

FD — $4,300 — PG
DK — $4,700 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.7 | Last Five Games: 16.0
Min/Game — Season: 19.9 | Last Five Games: 29.1
FP/Game — Season: 13.2 | Last Five Games: 22.5

Jared Dudley

Dudley has been playing a ton of minutes recently and he is coming off of arguably his best five-game stretch of the season, averaging 22.8 fantasy points in 32.1 minutes per contest.

FD — $4,100 — SF
DK — $4,800 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 10.0 | Last Five Games: 10.1
Min/Game — Season: 27.6 | Last Five Games: 32.1
FP/Game — Season: 16.6 | Last Five Games: 22.8

Brooklyn Nets

Record: 8-21 — Home: 6-9 — Last 10: 3-7

The Nets have lost seven of their last ten games and are only 8-21 on the season. They are expected to keep tonight’s game close though, as they are only 3-point underdogs. The Nets’ team total of 101.5 points is 4.7 points higher than their average points per game this season.

The Wizards play at a fast pace and have one of the worst defenses in the entire NBA. That’s a great combination for the fantasy production of their opponents. We should give a small boost to the Nets as a whole tonight.

Elite Plays

Thaddeus Young

Young has played well all season for the Nets. He is coming off of a strong five-game stretch, averaging 35.1 fantasy points per contest. He also draws a favorable matchup against Jared Dudley and the Wizards.

FD — $7,000 — PF
DK — $7,100 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.1 | Last Five Games: 19.3
Min/Game — Season: 32.6 | Last Five Games: 34.1
FP/Game — Season: 31.4 | Last Five Games: 35.1

Secondary Plays

Brook Lopez

Lopez is a bit too expensive on FanDuel and a bit too cheap on DraftKings. He is a strong play tonight at home, even though Marcin Gortat is an above-average low post defender.

FD — $8,100 — C
DK — $6,800 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.8 | Last Five Games: 20.5
Min/Game — Season: 33.6 | Last Five Games: 34.1
FP/Game — Season: 34.2 | Last Five Games: 35.2

Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks – 5:00 PM

Toronto Raptors Milwaukee Bucks
torontonba Vegas Total 194.5 milwaukeenba Vegas Total 194.5
Vegas Sprd -3.0 Vegas Sprd 3.0
Team Proj. 98.8 Team Proj. 95.8
Team Pace 96.10 Team Pace 96.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Luis Scola Bismack Biyombo Proj. Starter Michael Carter-Williams Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Greg Monroe
Opp. Season 9 15 27 25 12 Opp. Season 2 20 6 12 19
Opp. Last 7 3 22 19 10 4 Opp. Last 7 11 6 18 30 23

Toronto Raptors

Record: 18-12 — Road: 9-7 — Last 10: 6-4

The Raptors have won six of their last ten games and are now 18-12 on the season. Tonight they head to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks in a game that has a low total of 194.5 points. The Raptors are projected to score 98.8 points, which is slightly lower than their average points per game this season.

The Bucks’ defense has improved in recent weeks, but they are still ranked 19th or worse in all four of the defensive statistics listed above. There are a number of injuries to watch here, as DeMarre Carroll, James Johnson, and Patrick Patterson are all questionable for tonight’s game.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kyle Lowry

Lowry has had a terrific season, averaging 38.6 fantasy points per game. His production has been down a bit recently, but his price is down as well. He is a secondary play tonight against the Bucks.

FD — $8,700 — PG
DK — $8,500 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.4 | Last Five Games: 24.4
Min/Game — Season: 35.7 | Last Five Games: 35.4
FP/Game — Season: 38.6 | Last Five Games: 33.2

DeMar DeRozan

DeRozan has been on fire in his last five games, averaging 38.4 fantasy points in 39.3 minutes per game. DeRozan’s price has come way up though, making him a secondary play at shooting guard.

FD — $8,000 — SG
DK — $7,600 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.7 | Last Five Games: 26.0
Min/Game — Season: 36.7 | Last Five Games: 39.3
FP/Game — Season: 34.1 | Last Five Games: 38.4

Milwaukee Bucks

Record: 12-18 — Home: 9-5 — Last 10: 5-5

The Bucks have won five of their last ten games and actually have an impressive 9-5 record at home. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Raptors, who are very good defensively. The Bucks are only projected to score 95.8 points, which is the fourth-lowest team total on the board.

The Raptors have a top five defense this season. They are ranked fourth in points allowed per game and fifth in fantasy points allowed per game. This is a bad matchup for the Bucks as a whole, but there is one play in particular that is on my radar.

Elite Plays

Michael Carter-Williams

Greivis Vasquez and Jerryd Bayless have both been ruled out of tonight’s game, which means Carter-Williams will draw another start at point guard. He has been crushing value recently, averaging 36.9 fantasy points in his last five games.

FD — $6,500 — PG
DK — $6,700 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.9 | Last Five Games: 22.7
Min/Game — Season: 29.9 | Last Five Games: 35.6
FP/Game — Season: 26.0 | Last Five Games: 36.9

Secondary Plays

NONE

Memphis Grizzlies at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM

Memphis Grizzlies Charlotte Hornets
memphisnba Vegas Total 194.0 charlottenba Vegas Total 194.0
Vegas Sprd 2.5 Vegas Sprd -2.5
Team Proj. 95.8 Team Proj. 98.3
Team Pace 96.60 Team Pace 98.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Mike Conley Courtney Lee Matt Barnes Jeff Green Marc Gasol Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum P.J. Hairston Marvin Williams Al Jefferson
Opp. Season 5 21 9 26 18 Opp. Season 15 6 19 17 7
Opp. Last 7 16 30 10 21 6 Opp. Last 7 8 3 7 2 8

Memphis Grizzlies

Record: 16-15 — Road: 7-9 — Last 10: 4-6

This is the first game in the main slate tonight. The Grizzlies head to Charlotte to take on the Hornets. Memphis has an implied team total of 95.8 points, which is the fourth-lowest on the schedule.

The Hornets have been mediocre defensively this season. They are ranked between ninth and 18th in all four of the defensive categories listed above. This is an average matchup at best for the Grizzlies.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Marc Gasol

Jeff Green and Matt Barnes are both decent mid-range small forward options, but neither is a must-start on a night with a full slate. Gasol is my favorite target here. He has been in great form and the Hornets have not been great at defending centers.

FD — $8,000 — C
DK — $7,300 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.8 | Last Five Games: 18.8
Min/Game — Season: 34.7 | Last Five Games: 34.8
FP/Game — Season: 32.8 | Last Five Games: 33.9

Charlotte Hornets

Record: 15-13 — Home: 11-5 — Last 10: 5-5

The Hornets have won five of their last ten games and they own an impressive 11-5 record at home. Tonight they host the Grizzlies in what is expected to be a close down. This will be a pace-down game for Charlotte, as their team total is 3.7 points lower than their average points per game this season.

The Grizzlies have been better defensively over the last couple of weeks. They are now ranked above the league average in points allowed per game and fantasy points allowed per game. Al Jefferson will play tonight, but he will come off the bench. With so many players splitting minutes in the frontcourt, the Hornets big men should be avoided for now.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Miami Heat at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM

Miami Heat Orlando Magic
miaminba Vegas Total 191.0 orlandonba Vegas Total 191.0
Vegas Sprd 4.0 Vegas Sprd -4.0
Team Proj. 93.5 Team Proj. 97.5
Team Pace 95.30 Team Pace 97.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Luol Deng Chris Bosh Hassan Whiteside Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Tobias Harris Channing Frye Nikola Vucevic
Opp. Season 10 14 16 10 11 Opp. Season 3 4 24 5 6
Opp. Last 7 1 25 21 23 12 Opp. Last 7 10 7 6 13 2

Miami Heat

Record: 17-11 — Road: 4-5 — Last 10: 5-5

The Heat have won five of their last ten games, but are only 4-5 on the road this season. They are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, after beating the Pelicans in overtime on Christmas. They draw a tough matchup against the red-hot Magic in Orlando.

The Magic have an underrated defense. They are ranked at or above the league average in all four of the defensive statistics listed above. Dwyane Wade has sat out the second half of back-to-backs in the past, so make sure that he is in the lineup before using him in DFS. With such a large slate, I will likely be avoiding the Heat altogether.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Hassan Whiteside

Whiteside had a big game statistically against the Pelicans, but got into early foul trouble and only ended up playing 25 minutes. He’s one of the few Heat players that should have fresh legs for tonight’s game against the Magic.

FD — $7,700 — C
DK — $7,200 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.1 | Last Five Games: 14.9
Min/Game — Season: 28.3 | Last Five Games: 31.7
FP/Game — Season: 33.5 | Last Five Games: 38.5

Orlando Magic

Record: 17-12 — Home: 10-5 — Last 10: 6-4

The Magic have won six of their last ten games and they are now 17-12 on the season. Orlando is listed as 4-point favorites tonight against the Heat with their team total set at 97.5 points.

The Heat are one of the worst matchups in all of daily fantasy basketball. They are ranked fifth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. With a poor matchup, this is a good spot to fade the Magic as a whole.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Nikola Vucevic

Even though it’s not a great matchup, Vucevic’s recent performance garners attention. In his last five games, he is averaging 38 fantasy points in 33.3 minutes per contest.

FD — $7,700 — C
DK — $7,300 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.4 | Last Five Games: 23.5
Min/Game — Season: 30.4 | Last Five Games: 33.3
FP/Game — Season: 32.7 | Last Five Games: 38.0

Houston Rockets at New Orleans Pelicans – 7:00 PM

Houston Rockets New Orleans Pelicans
houstonnba Vegas Total 211.0 neworleansnba Vegas Total 211.0
Vegas Sprd 1.0 Vegas Sprd -1.0
Team Proj. 105.0 Team Proj. 106.0
Team Pace 100.10 Team Pace 99.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Clint Capela Dwight Howard Proj. Starter Tyreke Evans Eric Gordon Alonzo Gee Anthony Davis Omer Asik
Opp. Season 27 24 14 23 30 Opp. Season 16 18 28 30 16
Opp. Last 7 2 27 8 29 24 Opp. Last 7 12 5 16 20 18

Houston Rockets

Record: 16-15 — Road: 6-8 — Last 10: 6-4

The Rockets have won six of their last ten games, including a huge win against the Spurs last night. This could be a letdown game though, as the Rockets are listed as 1-point underdogs on the road against the Pelicans.

The Pelicans may not be the worst defense in the NBA, but they are awfully close. On the season, they are ranked 26th or worse in all four of the defensive statistics listed above. This should be a fast-paced game between two bad defensive teams. There is plenty of fantasy goodness to go around in this one. Dwight Howard will likely be on a minutes restriction here, as this is the second half of a back-to-back for the Rockets.

Elite Plays

James Harden

There are few better matchups than the one Harden has tonight. The only concern is his minutes. He mentioned earlier in the season that he’d like to play less minutes and that has been the case over the last couple of weeks. Don’t be surprised if he saw around 35 minutes tonight.

FD — $10,600 — SG
DK — $10,400 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 27.6 | Last Five Games: 27.3
Min/Game — Season: 38.2 | Last Five Games: 36.6
FP/Game — Season: 46.4 | Last Five Games: 42.1

Secondary Plays

Trevor Ariza

Ariza is not a player that anyone ever feels confident rostering, but he should play well in an uptempo game against the Pelicans. He should see minutes in the mid-30’s and I have him ranked ahead of Matt Barnes and Jeff Green at small forward.

FD — $5,500 — SF
DK — $5,600 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.4 | Last Five Games: 11.5
Min/Game — Season: 34.3 | Last Five Games: 33.4
FP/Game — Season: 23.1 | Last Five Games: 20.5

New Orleans Pelicans

Record: 9-20 — Home: 6-6 — Last 10: 5-5

The Pelicans almost picked up a tough win in Miami yesterday, but they eventually fell short in overtime. They head back home tonight to take on the Rockets. The Pelicans are projected to score 106 points tonight, which is the second highest team total on the board.

The Rockets have been a little better defensively over the last couple of weeks, but they are still ranked in the bottom ten in all four of the defensive categories listed above. We should give a nice boost to the Pelicans’ offense as a whole.

Elite Plays

Anthony Davis

Games like yesterday are exactly why I have an Anthony Davis problem. He has more upside than any player in the NBA. He nearly had 50 fantasy points in the first half against the Heat. His price is still down and he draws a dream matchup tonight against the Heat, who are ranked dead last against power forwards.

FD — $10,400 — PF
DK — $10,200 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.7 | Last Five Games: 22.3
Min/Game — Season: 36.4 | Last Five Games: 37.1
FP/Game — Season: 44.6 | Last Five Games: 45.9

Tyreke Evans

Evans really struggled in yesterday’s loss against the Heat. He has a good chance to bounce back tonight against the Rockets, who are ranked 16th against point guards this season. He is also playing at home and we all know how nice the scorekeeper in New Orleans is. Tis the season of the giving.

FD — $7,300 — PG
DK — $7,800 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.6 | Last Five Games: 19.2
Min/Game — Season: 32.3 | Last Five Games: 32.7
FP/Game — Season: 33.2 | Last Five Games: 32.0

Secondary Plays

NONE

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious