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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, March 4th

by Chirag Hira (INSPYR) Last Updated 2017-03-05 02:47:02

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Legend & FAQ

Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers – 6:00 PM ET

Detroit Pistons Philadelphia 76ers
Article Image Vegas Total 209.5 Article Image Vegas Total 209.5
Vegas Spread -4.5 Vegas Spread 4.5
Team Total 107.0 Team Total 102.5
Pace +/- 2.1 Pace +/- -1.8
Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Jon Leuer Andre Drummond Proj. Starter T.J. McConnell Nik Stauskas Robert Covington Dario Saric Jahlil Okafor
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 23 23 10 11 29 Adj. DvP 21 3 4 14 8
DRPM 0.21 -0.99 3.57 -1.17 -1.70 DRPM -2.68 0.10 0.88 0.85 1.51

Detroit Pistons

Welcome to the Saturday edition of the Grind Down. We have a nice, full slate on our hands with one early game. The Pistons are pretty healthy right now, but there have been some internal rumblings that Ish Smith will start over Reggie Jackson for today’s game. We likely won’t find out until closer to game time. Simply put, if Ish Smith starts, you have to play him against his former team. He’s cheaper than Jackson and has flashed his upside recently when given the minutes. Smith has scored over 38 DraftKings points in two of his last four games and has a usage rate over 20 in five of his last 10 games. When Smith started earlier this season with Jackson sidelined due to injury, his salary got up to $5.6k on DraftKings and $6.4k on FanDuel, meaning we have some nice potential profit to reap with his salary sitting under $5,000.

Andre Drummond will also benefit by having a pass-first point guard on the floor for a majority of the time. Drummond has scored over 40 in both games against the Sixers this season. In their last meeting about a month ago, he only needed 26 minutes to score 44.9 FanDuel points. The floor seems safe, and if you’re playing the early slate, there are not many safer options (Greg Monroe comes to mind after he played well last night but Jason Kidd’s rotations are never actually considered safe). Jon Leuer is the last Pistons player to go off after Marcus Morris set a career-high in points two games ago. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope played well in the games prior to that. This team makes it hard to predict who is going to have the big game, but outside of Drummond, Leuer / Tobias Harris have the easier matchup. KCP will also be viable considering the Pistons are expected to score 5.5 points over their season average. Marcus Morris will have to deal with Robert Covington, making him the Piston we can skip for this game.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Reggie Jackson $5,000 $5,000 0.89 28.2 -1.4 25.1 -5.0 29.4% -1.4% 23 0.21
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $5,300 $5,700 0.72 34.2 4.9 24.5 4.7 19.8% -0.2% 23 -0.99
Marcus Morris $6,200 $5,800 0.75 33.2 2.4 24.9 6.3 20.2% 2.9% 10 3.57
Jon Leuer $4,600 $5,000 0.78 27.3 4.5 21.4 0.7 17.5% 3.1% 11 -1.17
Andre Drummond $8,100 $7,600 1.20 30.4 -2.5 36.6 -4.1 22.7% 1.9% 29 -1.70
Tobias Harris $5,300 $5,300 0.81 31.5 -2.6 25.5 -3.0 21.6% -0.4% 11 N/A

Elite Plays – Andre Drummond, Ish Smith

Secondary Plays – Jon Leuer, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Tobias Harris

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers will host the Pistons after beating the Knicks at home last night. Dario Saric continues to prove why he was such a highly touted draft pick, and it looks like this team really has some assets that can flourish. Saric shook off his poor game against the Heat and put up a double-double against the Knicks last night. His ownership will be there on the early slate, and I’m not sure you can avoid him because of how well he’s playing. Saric should be able to approach 30 minutes today, and his salary did not move since they are playing on the second night of a back-to-back. The Sixers are playing their third game in four nights and are pretty depleted with Gerald Henderson going down.

Nik Stauskas replaced Gerald Henderson in the starting lineup and played 30 minutes. He only had a usage rate of nine percent last night, and it’s likely due to the fact the starting unit has more scorers than the bench unit. Sauce is still cheap across the industry and is a risky GPP play since KCP (0.10 DPRM) will likely lock him up. Robert Covington continues to see heavy minutes but he’ll have to deal with Marcus Morris and if RoCo is not picking up 10+ rebounds or picking up a bunch of defensive stats, he likely won’t exceed value greatly. Considering Andre Drummond will be roaming the paint, it’s unlikely that Covington picks up double-digit rebounds. T.J. McConnell is coming off a nice performance last night, and he’ll be a solid cash game play with his salary allowing us an attainable floor and some potential upside. Richaun Holmes played more than Jahlil Okafor once again, and it’s likely that will continue with the chance of Okafor getting into foul trouble against Drummond.

Justin Anderson showed us why he was the centerpiece of the Nerlens Noel deal and has played 24 or more minutes in back-to-back games for the Sixers. He’s still the minimum on both major sites and will be the mandatory punt play in cash games. Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot has also played over 24 minutes in consecutive games and is the GPP play that could work. I’ll have to check and see if the Andersons got tickets to the game, but even if they did not, TLC is a rookie, and Justin Anderson is much more seasoned, making him somewhat safer.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
T.J. McConnell $5,600 $5,200 0.82 25.2 3.4 20.7 5.4 19.1% -0.8% 21 -2.68
Nik Stauskas $4,000 $3,800 0.60 26.8 -1.8 16.1 0.7 16.5% 4.0% 3 0.10
Robert Covington $7,200 $7,300 0.84 31.3 2.3 26.2 12.3 18.3% 2.4% 4 0.88
Dario Saric $7,300 $7,400 0.85 25.1 8.7 21.4 12.8 22.8% 2.4% 14 0.85
Jahlil Okafor $5,100 $4,900 0.87 23.0 -1.6 19.9 -2.3 22.6% 3.5% 8 1.51
Richaun Holmes $4,600 $5,000 0.96 16.8 7.1 16.2 12.2 17.4% -1.0% 14 N/A

Elite Plays – Justin Anderson, Dario Saric, T.J. McConnell

Secondary Plays – Robert Covington, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Richaun Holmes

Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat – 8:00 PM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers Miami Heat
Article Image Vegas Total 216.0 Article Image Vegas Total 216.0
Vegas Spread -1.5 Vegas Spread 1.5
Team Total 108.8 Team Total 107.3
Pace +/- -1.1 Pace +/- 0.2
Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving Iman Shumpert LeBron James Richard Jefferson Tristan Thompson Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Rodney McGruder Dion Waiters Luke Babbitt Hassan Whiteside
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 4 5 5 12 19 Adj. DvP 24 29 21 2 10
DRPM -1.96 -0.74 0.21 1.68 2.06 DRPM -1.59 0.03 1.18 -0.77 1.64

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs continue their road trip tonight in Miami. They are coming off a game where they set the NBA record for three-pointers made with 25. They will be playing their third game in four nights on the road, and there is always a chance they decide to rest someone. Considering LeBron James is returning to Miami, we’ll have to expect him to play. James is logging heavy minutes and should be considered an elite cash game play. He’s rolling right now and has scored over 67 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. There’s not much more left to say about one of the greatest players on the planet. Kyrie Irving scored 70 DraftKings points last night and is also a nice cash game play on DraftKings. His salary is far too cheap, and he has a usage rate of 30 or more in 10 straight games. Irving has scored under 23 actual points in 11 straight games. It might be a little tougher to fit him in on FanDuel with his salary sitting at $9k, but the ownership should be there after his best game of the season.

The rest of the Cavs are simply GPP options, and all of them lack consistency with James and Irving hogging up most of the usage. Tristan Thompson looks like a lock for 30+ minutes, but his salary leaves much to be desired and he is pretty undersized against Hassan Whiteside. Derrick Williams and Channing Frye have been solid off the bench but are not safe enough for cash games. Kyle Korver played 30 minutes last night but is so scoring dependent, making it tough to trust him with Deron Williams also available off the bench. We’ll have to check back and see if the Cavs are resting anyone before we can really count on anyone else.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyrie Irving $9,000 $8,400 1.08 35.1 -1.4 37.8 4.6 32.0% 1.6% 4 -1.96
Iman Shumpert $3,500 $3,200 0.58 25.4 -0.6 14.6 -4.3 13.8% -0.7% 5 -0.74
LeBron James $11,100 $10,900 1.28 37.6 -0.9 48.2 1.6 32.8% -2.3% 5 0.21
Richard Jefferson $3,600 $3,200 0.51 19.9 4.3 10.1 5.0 12.4% 0.0% 12 1.68
Tristan Thompson $6,100 $5,100 0.78 30.2 3.5 23.6 2.9 11.1% 0.6% 19 2.06
Derrick Williams $4,000 $4,000 0.69 17.5 9.4 12.1 5.3 17.7% -3.0% 12 N/A

Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kyrie Irving

Secondary Plays – N/A

Miami Heat

The Heat travel back to Miami after losing to the Orlando Magic last night. Both teams are playing their third game in four nights, so Miami only has a slight advantage due to the fact the game is at home. Hassan Whiteside has played over 34 minutes in three of his last four games and has scored 40 or more DraftKings points in six of his last seven starts. He should be a fine option against the Cavs, but I’m slightly favoring Drummond if I’m paying up for a big man on this slate. Goran Dragic has been playing well, but with the team pretty healthy, he’s not being forced to log heavy minutes or a heavy scoring burden. Dragic is still a strong cash game play against Kyrie Irving (-1.59 DPRM) since his salary on DraftKings is down to $7.1k. James Johnson played 34 minutes last night and has chipped in a block or a steal in 19 straight games. His floor also seems safe, and we’ll see him defending LeBron James for stretches of this game.

Tyler Johnson is also a strong option since he is cheaper than Dragic and has a usage rate over 20 in three straight games. The minutes are not a lock, so he’s better suited for GPPs. Dion Waiters’ salary is down under $7,000 now, and he has a usage rate of 27 or more in four of his last five starts. He only played 20 minutes last night and was dealing with an ankle injury prior to the game. Iman Shumpert is also a capable defender, making Waiters the riskiest option in Miami. The minutes continue to be on the rise for Josh Richardson, and if Waiters is held out on the second night of a back-to-back, Richardson will gladly step into the starting spot.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Goran Dragic $7,600 $7,100 0.99 33.9 -3.8 33.5 -1.9 29.1% 1.7% 24 -1.59
Rodney McGruder $3,500 $3,000 0.54 25.9 -3.5 13.9 -0.4 12.3% -0.3% 29 0.03
Dion Waiters $6,900 $6,400 0.89 30.7 0.4 27.4 3.3 27.3% 1.1% 21 1.18
Luke Babbitt $3,500 $3,000 0.55 15.8 1.2 8.7 5.3 13.2% 0.2% 2 -0.77
Hassan Whiteside $8,800 $8,000 1.17 32.7 -2.0 38.3 1.4 21.3% 0.9% 10 1.64
James Johnson $6,000 $5,600 0.94 26.5 -0.1 24.9 -1.0 23.1% 0.6% 2 N/A
Tyler Johnson $5,800 $5,700 0.88 30.5 -2.1 26.7 1.2 21.9% -0.8% 24 N/A

Elite Plays – James Johnson, Tyler Johnson (GPP), Goran Dragic (cash)

Secondary Plays – Hassan Whiteside

Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM ET

Toronto Raptors Milwaukee Bucks
Article Image Vegas Total 206.0 Article Image Vegas Total 206.0
Vegas Spread -2.0 Vegas Spread 2.0
Team Total 104.0 Team Total 102.0
Pace +/- -1.2 Pace +/- -1.4
Proj. Starter Cory Joseph DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Serge Ibaka Jonas Valanciunas Proj. Starter Malcolm Brogdon Rashad Vaughn Tony Snell Giannis Antetokounmpo Thon Maker
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 3 9 24 27 26 Adj. DvP 7 2 15 16 11
DRPM -0.27 -0.57 -0.85 2.18 0.11 DRPM -3.08 -2.49 1.02 0.48 0.31

Toronto Raptors

This is ANOTHER team that is playing back-to-back with their game third game in four nights. I’m expecting a bunch of sloppy basketball today, so proceed with caution. DeMar DeRozan has really played well over the last five games that Kyle Lowry has been out, scoring over 50 fantasy points in three of those games. He also logged 47.5 against Portland and is WAY too cheap on DraftKings at $8.7k. You could argue that he is overpriced on FanDuel at $9,900, but with his usage rate a lock over 30, he still looks like a solid cash game play on FD. It’ll be tough to fit in all the strong plays on the early slate and we’ll have to sacrifice somewhere.

Serge Ibaka looks like a lock to play over 30 minutes, and he has not played under 32 minutes with his new team. Ibaka has been somewhat volatile with the Raptors and James Johnson is slightly cheaper than him if you need a strong play with a similar floor. Cory Joseph continues to log heavy minutes, but the upside just is not there with DeRozan hogging all the usage. DeMarre Carroll also is a tough sell with DeRozan dominating, but he’s $3.9k on both major sites and should log heavy minutes guarding Giannis Antetokounmpo. P.J. Tucker will also be used to guard The Greek Freak, but he has no upside.

Patrick Patterson had his best game in a month last night but has not proven he can be consistent. Still, I don’t mind him as a low-dollar GPP punt since his salary at the minimum on both major sites and he’s known as a streaky player. Norman Powell has also played well over the last couple games and has adjusted to his bench role. With his minutes fluctuating, he’s simply a GPP play. Delon Wright also played key minutes behind Cory Joseph but he’s not winning you a GPP with 20 fantasy points. Jonas Valanciunas is basically unplayable with Ibaka being used as the small-ball center. Lucas Nogueira, Pascal Siakam, and Jakob Poeltl are out of the rotation.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Cory Joseph $5,000 $5,100 0.72 23.3 7.9 16.8 2.9 20.1% -3.3% 3 -0.27
DeMar DeRozan $9,900 $8,700 1.12 35.6 -0.5 39.8 -1.4 34.4% 2.3% 9 -0.57
DeMarre Carroll $3,900 $3,900 0.65 27.5 4.3 17.9 -0.9 15.2% -3.4% 24 -0.85
Serge Ibaka $6,900 $6,600 0.92 30.9 3.2 28.3 2.4 20.2% -0.6% 27 2.18
Jonas Valanciunas $5,400 $4,500 0.98 26.5 -6.5 25.9 -5.2 19.0% 0.8% 26 0.11

Elite Plays – DeMar DeRozan (DK), Serge Ibaka

Secondary Plays – DeMar DeRozan (FD), Cory Joseph, Patrick Patterson

Milwaukee Bucks

Yippee! Can we just call this slate the third game in four nights slate? Khris Middleton had a phenomenal game last night (his best of the season, in fact) and played 33 minutes against the Clippers; although nothing official has come out, he’s hopeful to play tonight. With Jason Kidd being the head coach, anything is truly possible, but Middleton will be an elite option if he plays since his salary did not move. Giannis Antetokounmpo is also a viable cash game play but if I’m spending up for my studs tonight, I’d rather look at other players. The game environment will likely not be favorable for the Bucks considering they have one of the lowest implied team totals on the slate. Greg Monroe played 35 minutes last night and his salary is up. He’s still coming off the bench, so his minutes fluctuate, making him simply a GPP play and not a cash game chase after a strong performance last night.

Malcolm Brogdon is also in play, but he lacks the elite upside if Middleton starts. Jason Kidd loves messing with us and used Matthew Dellavedova 36 minutes last night. I’m not sure which guard to trust here; none seems like the correct answer. Jason Terry is also logging 20 minutes, making everyone too risky. Rashad Vaughn could start if Middleton rests, but he only played 5 minutes in his last start. John Henson was a DNP-CD last night. Maybe he was being saved for tonight? Jason Kidd has no consistency to his rotation, so avoid all the traps.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Malcolm Brogdon $5,200 $5,600 0.79 25.7 -0.2 20.2 3.2 20.7% 3.9% 7 -3.08
Rashad Vaughn $3,500 $3,000 0.60 11.1 -1.1 6.7 -0.2 15.4% -3.3% 2 -2.49
Tony Snell $3,900 $3,400 0.51 28.7 3.0 14.5 -0.1 11.4% -1.5% 15 1.02
Giannis Antetokounmpo $10,800 $9,800 1.29 35.5 1.8 45.8 -1.2 29.3% -0.1% 16 0.48
Thon Maker $3,500 $3,000 0.86 7.7 3.7 6.6 0.6 17.7% -4.7% 11 0.31
Greg Monroe $6,300 $5,600 1.14 22.0 4.1 25.1 3.5 23.6% 0.2% 11 N/A

Elite Plays – N/A

Secondary Plays – Khris Middleton (elite if he starts)

Los Angeles Clippers at Chicago Bulls – 8:30 PM ET

Los Angeles Clippers Chicago Bulls
Article Image Vegas Total 210.5 Article Image Vegas Total 210.5
Vegas Spread -1.5 Vegas Spread 1.5
Team Total 106.0 Team Total 104.5
Pace +/- -1.3 Pace +/- -0.1
Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Luc Richard Mbah a Moute Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan Proj. Starter Jerian Grant Dwyane Wade Jimmy Butler Bobby Portis Robin Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 20 19 12 18 7 Adj. DvP 9 8 17 10 21
DRPM 0.24 -0.33 1.57 -0.72 0.18 DRPM 3.59 -1.66 2.73 0.95 2.91

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers finish up their road trip tonight in Chicago and are ALSO playing their third game in four nights. The All-Star break has really forced this schedule upon us, and hopefully, we don’t see teams just mailing it in. The Clippers have mailed in their last two games and should play well tonight against Chicago. Chris Paul is back under $9k on DraftKings but is $9.6k on FanDuel. I’ll probably choose Kemba Walker over Chris Paul for tonight’s slate in cash, but CP3 still has GPP appeal on DK. Blake Griffin has been extremely volatile since Paul returned and is also simply a GPP play. Bobby Portis and Nikola Mirotic can’t handle BG and is likely the better option over Paul. The entire team is in a slump, and they are expected to score under their season average. DeAndre Jordan also looks like a lock for 32 minutes but is inept on the offensive end outside of 2 feet. J.J. Redick looks okay for cash games since he also plays over 30 minutes.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Chris Paul $9,600 $8,900 1.30 31.3 5.0 40.8 0.3 28.9% -2.0% 20 0.24
J.J. Redick $4,300 $4,400 0.70 28.6 2.7 20.1 -1.8 21.0% -4.3% 19 -0.33
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute $3,500 $3,000 0.54 22.4 -2.1 12.1 -2.9 11.0% 0.2% 12 1.57
Blake Griffin $9,700 $9,000 1.21 33.7 2.2 40.8 0.6 30.3% 0.1% 18 -0.72
DeAndre Jordan $7,600 $7,000 1.07 31.5 2.6 33.6 0.8 14.7% -0.3% 7 0.18
Austin Rivers $4,700 $4,200 0.71 28.2 -0.9 19.9 3.5 20.9% 3.0% 20 N/A

Elite Plays – N/A

Secondary Plays – Blake Griffin, Chris Paul, J.J. Redick

Chicago Bulls

Incredible! A team on a different schedule. The Bulls are nice and rested, and Jimmy Butler should be considered a strong cash game play. Butler has scored over 43 fantasy points in five of his last six games. Dwyane Wade has seen his fantasy output decrease for back-to-back games, but he can be considered fine GPP play with his salary under $7.5k on both major sites, and given the fact that he has played 32 or more minutes in three of his last four games. Bobby Portis has finally been freed! Portis played over 31 minutes for the first time all season against the Warriors and is a viable option against the Clippers. I’m not expecting him to pick up a double-double against the Clippers but he’s still under $5k on both major sites. There is still some risk when it comes to Portis, since Blake Griffin could put him into foul trouble rather quickly. It might seem tempting to lock in Portis for cash games because he is cheap, but I’d rather lock in the other value plays first.

If Nikola Mirotic plays over 20 minutes, the chances of Portis greatly exceeding value are low. I’m not recommending Mirotic as a play, just someone that could hurt the upside of Portis. Cristiano Felício looks to have passed Robin Lopez again, but the upside is just not there for Felício. Cameron Payne, Rajon Rondo, Jerian Grant all split the point guard minutes evenly against the Warriors and are too risky to trust against the point gawd CP3. Paul Zipser played 23 minutes in his return from a seven-game absence but also lacks elite upside unless someone sits. Denzel Valentine was also hurt by the presence of Zipser, and we can’t trust him either. Michael Carter-Williams could play, and that makes this situation even worse if he plays.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Jerian Grant $3,500 $3,000 0.68 16.2 0.1 11.0 1.1 17.2% -2.3% 9 3.59
Dwyane Wade $7,400 $7,200 1.08 30.5 1.6 32.8 1.0 31.0% -2.3% 8 -1.66
Jimmy Butler $9,100 $9,100 1.13 36.7 1.8 41.3 -0.5 29.2% -3.0% 17 2.73
Bobby Portis $4,400 $4,800 0.81 13.2 10.8 10.7 13.1 18.1% 2.0% 10 0.95
Robin Lopez $4,700 $4,200 0.79 27.9 -1.4 21.9 0.2 16.9% 6.1% 21 2.91
Rajon Rondo $5,000 $5,200 0.90 26.0 -3.9 23.3 3.1 22.5% 5.1% 9 N/A
Nikola Mirotic $4,100 $4,700 0.82 22.7 2.7 18.7 2.5 18.8% -2.1% 10 N/A

Elite Plays – Jimmy Butler, Dwyane Wade

Secondary Plays – Bobby Portis

Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs – 9:00 PM ET

Minnesota Timberwolves San Antonio Spurs
Article Image Vegas Total 205.0 Article Image Vegas Total 205.0
Vegas Spread 8.5 Vegas Spread -8.5
Team Total 98.3 Team Total 106.8
Pace +/- -2.0 Pace +/- -1.7
Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Brandon Rush Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns Proj. Starter Dejounte Murray Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Dewayne Dedmon
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 2 15 2 3 2 Adj. DvP 13 10 6 7 14
DRPM -0.43 1.97 0.63 1.20 4.30 DRPM 0.50 -0.18 -2.75 3.17 -1.04

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves continue their road trip tonight in San Antonio. They’ve been off since Wednesday and should be able to run their guys 32+ minutes tonight. Andrew Wiggins finally cooled off from a fantasy perspective due to the lack of peripherals but still scored over 20 actual points for the 19th straight game. He looks like a viable floor play due to the minutes, but I worry about the upside with his salary still inflated and Kawhi Leonard (0.63 DPRM) starting opposite of him. DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis proved last night that the Spurs are still vulnerable inside and Karl-Anthony Towns should be able to record a double-double. With the Timberwolves having the lowest implied team total, it might be too risky to pay up for these guys. Still, the Spurs are traveling back home after an overtime game and the Wolves have been resting, meaning this one could be should be competitive for most of the game.

Ricky Rubio continues to churn out nice fantasy lines, but Kris Dunn and Tyus Jones are cutting into his minutes. All three guards are simply GPP plays against the Spurs. Rubio scored over 45 fantasy points against the Spurs earlier this season but needed 39 minutes. I’m not sure the minutes will be there, but Tom Thibodeau loves running his guys into the ground. In a battle of the hard-to-pronounce names, Nemanja Bjelica has passed Gorgui Dieng in the rotation and has played 32+ minutes in consecutive games. He’s also scored over 30 fantasy points and his salary has spiked due to strong performances. He’s also too risky to trust since the T-Wolves could play big against the Spurs.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Ricky Rubio $6,900 $6,100 0.87 32.1 0.1 28.0 4.3 20.3% 2.7% 2 -0.43
Brandon Rush $3,500 $3,000 0.46 19.0 5.6 8.7 2.6 10.7% -0.2% 15 1.97
Andrew Wiggins $7,900 $7,000 0.87 37.1 -1.5 32.4 6.6 28.0% 5.3% 2 0.63
Gorgui Dieng $4,900 $4,600 0.78 31.7 -3.8 24.9 -3.2 14.9% 0.6% 3 1.20
Karl-Anthony Towns $10,400 $9,400 1.22 36.5 1.1 44.5 8.5 27.3% 1.1% 2 4.30

Elite Plays – N/A

Secondary Plays – Karl-Anthony Towns, Nemanja Bjelica

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs are another team that is playing their third game in four nights and the possibility of rest is there for this team. Kawhi Leonard has been an elite fantasy asset over the last two games and should continue to be a strong play if he plays. If anyone rests, Leonard will be an even stronger option. LaMarcus Aldridge FINALLY gave us a game to note but had to play 40 minutes to get there. LMA has not scored over 40 fantasy points since January and will need players to rest to really return a strong fantasy performance. Pau Gasol played 36 minutes last night, bumped by five extra minutes, but should be considered a viable GPP play tonight. Tony Parker was restricted to 24 minutes and Patty Mills played in the overtime session. Patty Cakes actually played well and hit a bunch of three-pointers to help seal the deal in New Orleans. Mills should be considered an elite play if Parker sits but does not have a ton of upside if Parker plays. Dewayne Dedmon has seen 16 minutes in consecutive games and is not a viable fantasy option with Gasol healthy and active.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Dejounte Murray $3,500 $3,700 0.73 8.1 1.7 5.9 1.6 26.4% -4.7% 13 0.50
Danny Green $3,800 $3,800 0.63 26.6 -1.0 16.6 0.6 13.3% 0.4% 10 -0.18
Kawhi Leonard $9,000 $8,800 1.23 33.3 -1.9 40.8 -1.5 30.9% 3.3% 6 -2.75
LaMarcus Aldridge $6,900 $6,000 0.97 32.2 -1.5 31.2 -2.8 23.9% 0.8% 7 3.17
Dewayne Dedmon $4,400 $4,300 0.94 17.4 6.0 16.3 5.7 12.2% -1.7% 14 -1.04
Pau Gasol $6,300 $5,400 1.05 26.1 -3.8 27.4 2.0 20.7% 4.4% 14 N/A

Elite Plays – Kawhi Leonard

Secondary Plays – LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol

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About the Author

INSPYR
Chirag Hira (INSPYR)

Chirag Hira, DFS alias “INSPYR”, has been playing fantasy basketball since 2001. He picked up DFS during the 2015 playoffs and has never looked back. In charge of DFS Alerts for the NBA, Chirag takes it as a daily challenge to break news before anyone else in the industry. He graduated with a degree in sports journalism and his career highlights include interviewing Kobe Bryant and Joe Torre. You can find Chirag on Twitter at C_Hira24.