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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, November 14th

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-11-15 20:05:21

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Detroit at L.A. Clippers – 03:30 PM

Detroit L.A. Clippers
detroitnba Vegas Total 201 laclippersnba Vegas Total 201
Vegas Sprd 3.5 Vegas Sprd -3.5
Team Proj. 98.8 Team Proj. 102.3
Team Pace 98.07 Team Pace 101.48
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Ersan Ilyasova Andre Drummond Proj Starter Chris Paul Jamal Crawford Lance Stephenson Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan
Opp. Season 10 28 15 15 20 Opp. Season 12 13 6 22 1
Opp. Last 7 5 30 5 26 16 Opp. Last 7 28 14 11 28 4

Detroit

The Pistons head on the road to face a Clippers team that can really score the ball, but play at a solid pace and don’t play great defense. The Pistons appear to be healthy heading into this game, and outside of Ersan Ilyasova, all of their starters typically play big minutes, so they are solid targets.

Chris Paul is dealing with a balky hamstring and may not even play in this matchup, which is a big matchup upgrade for Jackson. Jackson hasn’t played great the past two games, but he’s shown the ability to post big fantasy lines and has the fifth highest usage rate among guards. Austin Rivers is a big step down from Paul defensively, and Paul is unlikely to be 100% so Jackson makes for a fine option in the all day slate. The headliner for the Pistons is clearly Andre Drummond, who is practically averaging 20 points and 20 rebounds a game to start the season. The Clippers struggled defensively against centers last season, and that has been the case this year as well. He’s the top center on the day and will be a very popular play for those playing the all-day slate.

Outside of Drummond and Jackson, Marcus Morris and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are fine secondary options due to their minute security. Caldwell-Pope plays a ton of minutes but can be a volatile option due to the fact that he contributes in very few categories outside of scoring. As a result, if his shot isn’t falling, he’ll put up a disappointing fantasy line. Marcus Morris has been surprisingly effective this season for the Pistons, but his price is on the rise, and the Clippers have defended the SF position fairly well. Ersan Ilyasova is the one Detroit starter who doesn’t play heavy minutes as Stanley Johnson plays solid minutes off the bench and Marcus Morris can slide to the PF. Johnson has hit 5x salary in each of his past two games, is returning home to California. If you’re in dire need of a SF punt, you could give him a look, but I don’t think it’s a necessary route to take today as he’s very volatile.

Elite Plays

Andre Drummond

FD: $9,700 — DK: $9,500
Min/Game: 37.1 — Usage Rate: 23.80%

Reggie Jackson

FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,400
Min/Game: 32.4 — Usage Rate: 32.00%

Secondary Plays

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

FD: $5,100 — DK: $5,100
Min/Game: 38.2 — Usage Rate: 17.20%

Marcus Morris

FD: $6,100 — DK: $6,300
Min/Game: 38.3 — Usage Rate: 20.30%

L.A. Clippers

The Clippers are a three-point favorite with a solid team total of 102 points. The issue to watch here is that they are likely to be without their starting backcourt. Chris Paul is listed as doubtful, and JJ Redick is listed as out. Austin Rivers and Pablo Prigioni drew the start last game, which was a surprise in regards to Prigioni, so you’ll need to double check as to the starting lineup.

With Chris Paul out, this entire offense should flow through Blake Griffin. He should destroy Ersan Ilyasova to start the game, and will have a solid size advantage over any other PF the Pistons throw at him. He was on his way to a big game on Thursday, but received two technical fouls and was ejected in the second quarter. I wouldn’t expect that to occur again, and although the Pistons have been solid defensively this year, they’ve struggled against PFs and Griffin’s usage should be very high.

Deandre Jordan had a rough offseason and has struggled to start the year. He’s only averaging around 30 MPG, but with Drummond on the other side, he could see a minutes boost here in attempt to somewhat contain Drummond. Detroit has been great against centers though so he’s a GPP only play.

While most figured that Austin Rivers and Jamal Crawford would draw the start with Paul and Reddick out, it was actually Rivers and Pablo Prigioni, and it’s unclear if that is the route the Clippers will take today. Prigioni isn’t a viable fantasy alternative even if he starts, and Crawford did attempt 14 FGA in 29 minutes off the bench. He finally shot the ball well and would be my preferred punt option. Austin Rivers should play 30 minutes so maybe his minutes can lead to him paying off his cheap tag, but overall, he’s just not a great NBA player. The Clippers have a lot of depth on the wing so Paul Pierce, Wesley Johnson, and Lance Stephenson have been very unsteady options on the season and are very risky.

Elite Plays

Blake Griffin

FD: $9,700 — DK: $9,300
Min/Game: 33.1 — Usage Rate: 30.60%

Secondary Plays

Deandre Jordan

FD: $7,600 — DK: $7,500
Min/Game: 30.6 — Usage Rate: 13.50%

Jamal Crawford

FD: $4,400 — DK: $3,800
Min/Game: 22.1 — Usage Rate: 22.50%

Austin Rivers

FD: $3,800 — DK: $3,200
Min/Game: 23.2 — Usage Rate: 18.80%

Orlando at Washington – 07:00 PM

Orlando Washington
orlandonba Vegas Total washingtonnba Vegas Total
Vegas Sprd Vegas Sprd
Team Proj. Team Proj.
Team Pace 99.35 Team Pace 104.65
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Evan Fournier Tobias Harris Nikola Vucevic Proj Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Kris Humphries Marcin Gortat
Opp. Season 16 26 30 21 13 Opp. Season 27 6 18 11 14
Opp. Last 7 30 23 30 25 10 Opp. Season 25 11 15 11 14

Orlando

The line and total on this game is still TBD as Brad Beal is questionable and Victor Oladipo was just ruled out with a concussion. With Oladipo out last night, the Magic slid Tobias Harris to SF, and started Channing Frye at PF, but I’d double check as to the starting lineup before rolling Frye.

The Magic draw one of the elite matchups on the board as the Wizards are playing at very fast pace and are allowing a ton of points per game. With Oladipo out, the biggest beneficiary has actually been Tobias Harris. It’s really tough to trust Scott Skiles as Harris’ minutes have been a yo-yo through the year, but with Oladipo out he’s played 37 and 40 minutes the last two games. With Oladipo out, Fournier has spent the majority of his minutes at SG, which really solidifies Harris’ minutes at SF, and he can also play some PF. The Wizards are dead last against SF and Harris makes for a great mid-range play at a tough position.

Evan Fournier has played heavy minutes throughout the year, and with Oladipo out, he should continue to play 35+ minutes a night. If Brad Beal sits, he gets a nice matchup upgrade against Gary Neal, who is not the defender that Beal is. He’s getting a ton of FGA, and while I don’t love his price on DK, he still fits in nicely as a shooting guard option on FD. Given the lack of centers on the main slate, Nikola Vucevic is one of the better options. However, his upside is somewhat limited as Marcin Gortat is a quality defensive center and Vucevic averaged just around 32 FD PPG against the Wizards last season

Channing Frye drew the start last night, but played just 23 minutes, and Aaron Gordon will still be a factor so he’s a risky punt option. At PG, Elfrid Payton can either play 29 minutes a night or 37 minutes so he’s difficult to nail down and a GPP only play.

Elite Plays

Tobias Harris

FD: $6,500 — DK: $5,900
Min/Game: 31.4 — Usage Rate: 22.40%

Evan Fournier

FD: $5,600 — DK: $6,300
Min/Game: 38.1 — Usage Rate: 20.80%

Nikola Vucevic

FD: $7,700 — DK: $7,300
Min/Game: 30.3 — Usage Rate: 22.60%

Secondary Plays

Elfrid Payton

FD: $6,500 — DK: $5,500
Min/Game: 30.2 — Usage Rate: 18.70%

Washington

The big question with the Wizards is the status of their Bradley Beal, but it seems like he is closer to doubtful than probable. If he should sit then Gary Neal should draw the start at SG. Nene is expected back but his minutes typically don’t climb above 22 or so.

With Beal sounding doubtful, John Wall will have to shoulder a heavy burden tonight. I’d expect him to be more aggressive offensively, and the matchup is prime as the Magic are getting smoked by opposing PGs. With Stephen Curry potential limited due to a blowout, he’s my favorite high-end PG option on the night.

Outside of Wall, the rest of the Wizards are secondary options. Gary Neal drew the start in place of Beal and played 26 minutes so he’s a viable punt at SG should Beal sit again. The Magic have defended the SF position well to start the season, but that could change with Oladipo out. Otto Porter isn’t a great offensive player, but he is playing 30 MPG and does rebound well for his position. The biggest disappointment for the Wizards has probably been Marcin Gortat, who continues to play just 26 to 28 minutes a game. The matchup is solid as Nikola Vucevic isn’t great defensively, but his minutes limit his upside.

Elite Plays

John Wall

FD: $9,2000 — DK: $8,900
Min/Game: 33.3 — Usage Rate: 27.70%

Secondary Plays

Gary Neal

FD: $3,500 — DK: $3,200
Min/Game: 18.5 — Usage Rate: 21.30%

Otto Porter

FD: $5,500 — DK: $5,200
Min/Game: 33.1 — Usage Rate: 15.30

Marcin Gortat

FD: $6,000 — DK: $5,300
Min/Game: 27.5 — Usage Rate: 17.90%

Dallas at Houston – 08:00 PM

Dallas Houston
dallasnba Vegas Total 210 houstonnba Vegas Total 210
Vegas Sprd 5.5 Vegas Sprd -5.5
Team Proj. 102.5 Team Proj. 108.0
Team Pace 100.37 Team Pace 100.94
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Deron Williams Wesley Matthews Chandler Parsons Dirk Nowitzki Zaza Pachulia Proj Starter Ty Lawson Marcus Thornton James Harden Trevor Ariza Dwight Howard
Opp. Season 23 19 28 30 21 Opp. Season 21 5 1 29 10
Opp. Last 7 8 22 28 30 23 Opp. Season 27 6 2 20 8

Dallas

This should be a fun game as it’s a rivalry game and the Rockets really push pace. Chandler Parsons is expected to be out, and we’ll need to monitor Wesley Matthews status on the second night of a back to back.

The Mavs draw a premier matchup as the Rockets are allowing the most fantasy points on the season, and will be without Dwight Howard. The problem with the Mavs though is that no one tends to play big minutes, and this is their fourth game in five nights so they could really spread minutes around here.

Dirk Nowitzki has continued to be a lights-out offensive player and the Rockets have been dreadful against PFs. I like him as a secondary option as I am concerned about the four games in five nights due to his age. My favorite play on the Mavs is Zaza Pachulia as he’s coming off two straight double-doubles and the Rockets will be without Dwight Howard. They’ve been dominated on the glass without Howard, and Zaza could be in line for this third straight double-double at a cheap price point. Dwight Powell has played well off the bench, and is in play as a cheap PF option with Dirk potentially seeing under 30 minutes.

Wesley Matthews is cheap, but he doesn’t look all the way back from his injury, and I wonder about his minutes tonight. With Chandler Parsons out, and Matthews possibly limited, we could see guys like Raymond Felton, Devin Harris, and J.J. Barea get some extended run, but it’s tough to nail down the top option. If Felton starts then he’d be the preferred option. Deron Williams has yet to hit 30 FD points this season, and looks like a shell of his former self, so I’ll pass despite the solid matchup.

Elite Plays

Zaza Pachulia

FD: $5,500 — DK: $5,600
Min/Game: 26.2 — Usage Rate: 18.40

Secondary Plays

Dirk Nowitzki

FD: $6,700 — DK: $6,500
Min/Game: 27.5 — Usage Rate: 24.20

Dwight Powell

FD: $4,500 — DK: $4,700
Min/Game: 21.1 — Usage Rate: 21.30

Houston

The Rockets will likely be without Dwight Howard as he sits out the second night of a back to back, and they’ve generally played terrible basketball this season. They’re in dire need of a win, but they’re searching for answers and made a lineup change last night inserting Montrezl Harrell into the starting lineup for Marcus Thornton. It’s unclear as to whether that change will stick, as well as who will start for Howard, but it’s expected to be Clint Capela.

With the Rockets struggling and also without Dwight Howard, this sets up as a game for Harden to put the Rockets on his back. The Mavs have been better defensively this year and Wesley Matthews is a very good defender, but his minutes could be limited, and if that is the case then Harden should be in line for a monster game. He’s one of the premier options on the slate.

Outside of Harden things are very unclear, and it’s not even clear as to the starting lineup. Ty Lawson does not look comfortable offensively and is not a quality fantasy option at the current time. Marcus Thornton was benched last night and played just 18 minutes so I’d only plug him in if he is confirmed as a starter. Trevor Ariza should continue to play a ton of minutes and makes for a solid cash game play, but typically lacks upside and hasn’t been shooting the ball well. The Rockets big men are the most interesting as they are very thin without Dwight Howard. Montrezl Harrell drew the start last night, but only played 13 minutes, and I think that was a ploy to get the attention of Terrence Jones. He responded with a big game off the bench, and makes for a great GPP play against a Mavericks defense that is getting torched by PFs. Clint Capela is expected to draw the start in place of Howard, and has averaged over 25 FD PPG in the three games that Howard has sat out. He’s one of the better values on the night.

Elite Plays

James Harden

FD: $10,000 — DK: $10,100
Min/Game: 39.1 — Usage Rate: 34.40%

Clint Capela

FD: $4,600 — DK: $4,800
Min/Game: 17.2 — Usage Rate: 15.40

Secondary Plays

Terrence Jones

FD: $5,400 — DK: $5,700
Min/Game: 20.5 — Usage Rate: 19.0%

Trevor Ariza

FD: $5,700 — DK: $5,500
Min/Game: 36.3 — Usage Rate: 15.30

Philadelphia at San Antonio – 08:30 PM

Philadelphia San Antonio
philadelphianba Vegas Total 196 sanantonionba Vegas Total 196
Vegas Sprd 17.0 Vegas Sprd -17.0
Team Proj. 89.5 Team Proj. 106.5
Team Pace 99.17 Team Pace 98.72
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter T.J. McConnell Nik Stauskas Jerami Grant Nerlens Noel Jahlil Okafor Proj Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan
Opp. Season 29 1 5 3 3 Opp. Season 28 3 29 28 26
Opp. Last 7 20 2 6 10 9 Opp. Season 29 13 26 29 26

Philadelphia

The winless 76ers head to San Antonio and the big worry here is the 17-point spread and likely blowout. They will be without Robert Covington and Richaun Holmes so there are minutes available for Jerami Grant, and Nik Stauskas has been playing heavy minutes

The Spurs have been one of the best defenses in the league and with this likely turning into a blowout the 76ers are very risky fantasy options. Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor are their best fantasy producers, but the Spurs have played elite interior defense this season. Given the blowout and 76ers have the lowest team total on the slate, this looks like a fade. I’d only consider guys the cheaper guys like Nik Stauskas, Jerami Grant, and TJ McConnell, who should see 30 minutes at cheap price points, but they aren’t guys I’d have a ton of exposure too.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

San Antonio

The Spurs have a few injury situations to monitor as both Kawhi Leonard and Manu Ginobili are questionable, and with the likely blowout, guys like Tim Duncan and Tony Parker could also be “Popped”.

Note: Both Leonard and Ginobili are out for tonight’s game.

The 76ers are a team to definitely pick on but the problem is the large spread and the fact that Popovich could go very deep into his bench here. A lot of the viability of the Spurs will depend on that status of Leonard and Ginobili, and whether they rest any additional starters. If Leonard and Ginobili are both out then Danny Green should be in line for solid minutes and could become a solid punt option at SG. In that scenario, Patty Mills also becomes very interesting and he could push 25 minutes due to the blowout. I think he’s one of the sneakier GPP options on the slate. Both Kyle Anderson and Rasual Butler could see some additional run, but it’s unclear as to who would benefit the most due to the unpredictability of Popovich.

Even if Kawhi Leonard plays, he’s fairly risky as the Spurs starters may not see extended run here. If the Spurs do rest a guy like Tim Duncan then Lamarcus Aldrige becomes interesting at that price point, but otherwise I’d tread cautiously with the Spurs high priced players.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Patty Mills

FD: $3,700 — DK: 3,200
Min/Game: 20.6 — Usage Rate: 15.40%

Danny Green

FD: $4,200 — DK: $4,100
Min/Game: 28.1 — Usage Rate: 14.80%

Lamarcus Aldridge

FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,000
Min/Game: 30.1 — Usage Rate: 26.10%

Cleveland at Milwaukee – 08:30 PM

Cleveland Milwaukee
clevelandnba Vegas Total 196 milwaukeenba Vegas Total 196
Vegas Sprd -5.5 Vegas Sprd 5.5
Team Proj. 100.8 Team Proj. 95.3
Team Pace 96.76 Team Pace 95.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Mo Williams J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Timofey Mozgov Proj Starter Michael Carter-Williams Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Greg Monroe
Opp. Season 15 8 17 24 9 Opp. Season 6 16 20 5 2
Opp. Last 7 11 1 24 23 11 Opp. Season 12 26 23 5 2

Cleveland

Cleveland is the second night of a back to back, but they appear to be in good shape in terms of injuries and this should be a competitive game.

There has been talk of limiting LeBron’s minutes this year, but that hasn’t been the case as he’s averaging over 35 MPG. The SF position is fairly thin tonight, and he’s the one sure thing. While he hasn’t flashed that 60 fantasy point upside of years past, there is something to be said for locking in 40 to 50 points at a thin position.

Outside of LeBron, the Cavs aren’t a great fantasy team. Kevin Love is very up and down, and has struggled shooting the ball this year. Milwaukee is dead last in rebounding differential and hasn’t been great against PFs so he could produce a solid game here, but his volatility leaves him a risky cash game play. Timofey Mozgov and Tristan Thompson both limit each other’s upside as each plays 20 to 24 MPG so neither is a great fantasy play. Mo Williams’ has had his moment at PG, but draws an average at best matchup with the Bucks.

Elite Plays

LeBron James

FD: $10,200 — DK: $9,900
Min/Game: 35.2 — Usage Rate: 33.20

Secondary Plays

Kevin Love

FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,900
Min/Game: 33.5 — Usage Rate: 24.60

Milwaukee

The Bucks are expected to get Michael Carter-Williams back from injury tonight so the Jerryd Bayless fun looks to be coming to an end.

The Cavs have really picked it up on the defensive side of the ball this year so this is not a great spot for any of the Bucks. They’ve been particularly good against PGs, PFs and Centers so I’d concentrate on the Milwaukee wings, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton. Giannis has struggled a bit of late, but he’s a guy who can fill up the stat sheet when he’s playing well, and has been more aggressive offensively this season. Middleton has struggled to shoot the ball this year, but he’s playing big minutes and is a better shooter than he’s shown. I’d expect Giannis to draw the LeBron assignment, which is worrisome due to foul trouble, and I like both more as secondary options.

Greg Monroe has been very good this year but Cleveland has been great against the Center so I’d prefer to spend elsewhere, and this will be Michael Carter-Williams first game back from injury so they could ease him back in.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Giannis Antetokounmpo

FD: $7,000 — DK: $7,300
Min/Game: 34.3 — Usage Rate: 23.20

Khris Middleton

FD: $5,700 — DK: $5,800
Min/Game: 36.4 — Usage Rate: 19.10

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About the Author

a25smith
Andy Smith (a25smith)