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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, November 21st

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-11-23 12:54:24

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Sacramento at Orlando – 05:00 PM

Sacramento Orlando
sacramentonba Vegas Total orlandonba Vegas Total
Vegas Sprd Vegas Sprd
Team Proj. Team Proj.
Team Pace 102.83 Team Pace 99.16
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Rajon Rondo Darren Collison Rudy Gay DeMarcus Cousins Willie Cauley-Stein Proj Starter Elfrid Payton Victor Oladipo Evan Fournier Tobias Harris Nikola Vucevic
Opp. Season 29 7 15 12 18 Opp. Season 17 27 19 27 26
Opp. Last 7 26 17 12 21 30 Opp. Season 19 28 6 30 20

Sacramento

As of Friday night, the spread and total of this one are still TBD as Rudy Gay is questionable with a shoulder injury. If Gay sits, DeMarcus Cousins would get all the shots he could handle, while I’d expect Omri Casspi to get a solid boost as well. George Karl has tinkered with his starting lineup, so you’ll have to check back closer to tip as to who exactly draws the start if Gay sits.

Orlando is a middle of the pack defensive team but they’ve struggled the most against PG and C, which are strengths of the Kings. Nikola Vucevic is a great offensive center, but he’s not a rim protector or dominant defensive force. With Rudy Gay out earlier this year, Boogie Cousins attempted 27 FGA and produced 40 points. He’s the top overall option in the early slate.

Rajon Rondo is having a bounce back year in Sacramento, and is coming off of another huge outing. Despite the return of Darren Collison he still played 40 minutes last game, and it looks like they’ll share the backcourt at times, especially if Rudy Gay is out. Orlando is next to last in DVP against opposing PG and Rondo has been more aggressive offensively with double-figure shot attempts in four of his last five games. He should continue to be a great fantasy option due to his ability to pile up rebounds and assists

Outside of Rondo and Cousins, there are no truly reliable fantasy options here and we’ll have to await the status of Rudy Gay. If Gay plays, then he’s a secondary option, but I’d stick to Rondo and Cousins. If he’s out then a guy like Omri Casspi becomes interesting if he starts. Ben McLemore and Marco Belinelli are potential punt SGs, but are very scoring reliant and their minutes can be volatile.

Elite Plays

DeMarcus Cousins

FD: $10,600 — DK: $10,300
Min/Game: 32.1 — Usage Rate: 36.20

Rajon Rondo

FD: $8,000 — DK: $8,800
Min/Game: 35.3 — Usage Rate: 21.20

Secondary Plays

Omri Casspi (if Rudy Gay out and he starts)

FD: $4,200 — DK:$4,500
Min/Game:25.1 — Usage Rate: 17.90

Orlando

Orlando looks like they’ll continue to be without backup PG C. J. Watson, but otherwise look to be healthy heading into this one. However, they do have Scott Skiles as their head coach so any of their players can be randomly benched.

The Kings are one of the best teams in the league to target, as they are bad in just about every defensive category, except for rebounding. They don’t rank higher than 17th against any position in terms of DVP, so this entire Orlando starting five has a quality matchup, and it’s just a matter of deciding where we can trust Scott Skiles. He randomly benched both Nikola Vucevic and Victor Oladipo at halftime last game, and while I don’t expect that to happen again today, it shows what we’re dealing with. At different points this year, every Orlando starter, except for Evan Fournier, has seen Skiles randomly play games with their minutes, which is incredibly frustrating for DFS.

Given the elite matchup with the Kings, this entire starting five is in play for tournaments, as each player has flashed upside when the minutes are there. Fournier continues to be the safest option as he seems to be Skiles’ favorite, and is still too cheap on FD. Oladipo would be my next favorite option as the Kings have been terrible against SGs in previous years and Ben McLemore just doesn’t seem to have much of a clue defensively. The Kings are 25th in DVP against SG and just coughed up a big stat line to Dwyane Wade. I think Vucevic, Elfrid Payton and Tobias Harris are all fine secondary plays, but would target them more in a tournament format.

Elite Plays

Victor Oladipo

FD: $7,500 — DK:$7,100
Min/Game: 33.3 — Usage Rate: 21.60

Evan Fournier

FD: $5,900 — DK: $6,600
Min/Game: 38.3 — Usage Rate: 20.40

Secondary Plays

Elfrid Payton

FD: $6,900 — DK: $5,900
Min/Game:31.5 — Usage Rate: 20.50

Tobias Harris

FD: $6,800 — DK: $6,100
Min/Game: 32.5 — Usage Rate: 20.40

Nikola Vucevic

FD: $7,500 — DK: $7,300
Min/Game: 29.3 — Usage Rate: 20.40

Milwaukee at Indiana – 07:00 PM

Milwaukee Indiana
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 193 indiananba Vegas Total 193
Vegas Sprd 5.0 Vegas Sprd -5.0
Team Proj. 94.0 Team Proj. 99.0
Team Pace 94.14 Team Pace 98.56
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Michael Carter-Williams Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Greg Monroe Proj Starter George Hill Monta Ellis C.J. Miles Paul George Ian Mahinmi
Opp. Season 2 22 10 7 17 Opp. Season 8 5 25 25 9
Opp. Last 7 12 15 17 13 6 Opp. Season 2 5 29 23 13

Milwaukee

The Bucks got both Jabari Parker and O.J. Mayo back from injury last game and are nearing full health so the days of using Jerryd Bayless look to be over for right now.

The Pacers are playing a little faster this year, but have continued to be a very good defensive team, so this is a sub-par matchup for the Bucks. The one area where the Pacers have struggled is rebounding and they’ve also struggled against centers as they are 17th in DVP. Greg Monroe’s production has been down a bit of over his past few games, but both Washington and Cleveland feature tough interior defenses. His price has dropped a bit and this sets up as a nice bounce back spot.

I typically try to avoid Paul George defensively, and as long as the Pacers stay with their small lineup, then he should mostly be on Jabari Parker, but he could also easily see some time on Giannis Antetokounmpo or Khris Middleton if they get hot. C.J. Miles and Monta Ellis are not great defenders and the Pacers have struggled against SGs, so Antetokounmpo and Middleton are fine secondary plays as their minutes look to be very secure. Middleton has struggled shooting the ball this year, but he’s proven to be a good shooter in the past so positive shooting regression should be coming.

Elite Plays

Greg Monroe

FD: $7,700 — DK: $7,400
Min/Game: 33.2 — Usage Rate: 22.90

Secondary Plays

Giannis Antetokounmpo

FD: $7,200 — DK: $7,200
Min/Game: 35.5 — Usage Rate: 23.50

Khris Middleton

FD: $5,600 — DK: $5,600
Min/Game: 35.5 — Usage Rate: 19.10

Indiana

The Pacers have been without George Hill and Rodney Stuckey for the past few games, and both are still listed as questionable. I’d expect Hill to be back, while Stuckey is still a question mark.

Milwaukee plays at a very slow place, but they’ve also slipped defensively this season, so the Pacers shouldn’t be written off. Paul George is all the way back from his injury and is playing like a top-five player in the NBA right now. He’s seeing time as a stretch PF, which really boosts his rebounding numbers, and has scored 26 or more points in eight straight games. The Bucks have struggled defending both the SF and PF position so this sets up as another big outing from George.

With George Hill likely back, Monta Ellis won’t see as much time as the primary ball handler so he falls back to a secondary option at best. If Hill sits for another game then he does get a solid usage boost though. C.J. Miles has been a nice value play recently, and is shooting the ball well right now. Based on that along with Milwaukee’s struggles against SF, he’s in play as a secondary value option. There are some top notch centers on the board today so it’s risky to roll out Ian Mahinmi but Milwaukee is dead last in rebounding so he should have a nice day on the boards.

Elite Plays

Paul George

FD: $9,500 — DK: $9,700
Min/Game:36.0 — Usage Rate: 30.70

Secondary Plays

Monta Ellis (if George Hill out)

FD: $6,700 — DK: $6,300
Min/Game: 33.1 — Usage Rate: 21.90

C.J. Miles

FD: $4,800 — DK: $4,700
Min/Game: 27.2 — Usage Rate: 19.10

Ian Mahinmi

FD: $4,800 — DK: $4,500
Min/Game: 24.2 — Usage Rate: 13.90

Washington at Detroit – 07:30 PM

Washington Detroit
washingtonnba Vegas Total detroitnba Vegas Total
Vegas Sprd Vegas Sprd
Team Proj. Team Proj.
Team Pace 103.04 Team Pace 98.15
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Kris Humphries Marcin Gortat Proj Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Ersan Ilyasova Andre Drummond
Opp. Season 5 21 1 22 1 Opp. Season 10 28 29 21 7
Opp. Last 7 1 29 5 24 22 Opp. Season 5 23 4 26 3

Washington

Brad Beal looks to be inching closer to a return as he put in a full practice on Friday so we could see him return to the floor. His return would end the value for Garrett Temple and Gary Neal, but John Wall has actually played better with Beal in the lineup.

The Pistons have been a very tough defensive matchup this season and haven’t yielded much fantasy goodness, so the Wizards find themselves in a tough spot. The weak link of Detroit’s defense has been their SG defense so if Bradley Beal returns this is a solid matchup. It will be his first game back, so I do wonder whether he’ll return to a full minutes volume. Based on that uncertainty, I’d be more likely to deploy him in tournaments. John Wall has struggled with Beal out of the lineup so he’d get a bump if Beal does return, but the Pistons have played tough defense on PG this year. His price is down on DK, so that is the spot where I’d be most likely to roster him.

The Pistons have been terrific against SF and the position is loaded today, so I’ll pass on Otto Porter. Marcin Gortat makes for an intriguing large field tournament play as the Pistons are 1st in DVP against centers on the season, but just 22nd over the last seven days. The minutes are the primary concern with him, but maybe he gets an extra few minutes of run tonight to help combat Andre Drummond. He’s been playing a little better of late and averaged just over 40 FD PPG in three matchups with Drummond and the Pistons last year.

Ersan Ilyasova is not a good defender so Kris Humphries draws a quality initial matchup, but his minutes are very volatile. Also, Ersan is not locked into heavy minutes either as the Pistons will play Marcus Morris at the PF so the Wizards could match up and play more small ball in this one, which would hurt Hump’s minutes.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

John Wall

FD: $9,100 — DK:$8,600
Min/Game: 33.2 — Usage Rate: 27.60

Brad Beal

FD: $7,300 — DK: $6,900
Min/Game: 34.4 — Usage Rate: 27.70

Marcin Gortat

FD: $5,900 — DK: $5,500
Min/Game: 27.4 — Usage Rate: 18.60

Detroit

The Pistons look to be fully healthy entering this contest against a fast-paced Washington team and are in a really nice spot today.

The Wizards are playing at a much faster pace this year and when combined with a defensive efficiency of just19th that has resulted in them allowing 106 PPG. Outside of Ersan Ilyasova, the Pistons starters all play big minutes and deserve strong consideration due to the pace bump. Reggie Jackson draws the toughest matchup of the group as the Wizards have defended PG very well this season. The matchup also isn’t necessarily ideal for Andre Drummond as Marcin Gortat is one of the better post defenders in the NBA. However, he’s made enormous strides this year as he’s a nightly 20/20 threat and the pace of this game should lead to even more rebounding opportunities than normal. There are some quality center options today, but Drummond is right there at the top of the list.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Marcus Morris are both averaging over 35 MPG and the Wizards’ wing defense has really been lacking this season as they’re 28th in DVP against SG and 29th against SF. Both are fine mid-range plays today at their respective positions. Of the two, I’m liking Morris the most as he’s not quite as scoring reliant as KCP.

Elite Plays

Andre Drummond

FD: $10,100 — DK: $9,900
Min/Game: 36.4 — Usage Rate: 24.00

Marcus Morris

FD: $6,000 — DK: $6,100
Min/Game: 37.3 — Usage Rate: 19.60

Secondary Plays

Reggie Jackson

FD: $7,800 — DK: $7,600
Min/Game: 31.5 — Usage Rate: 31.40

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

FD: $5,000 — DK: $5,000
Min/Game: 37.4 — Usage Rate: 16.80

Philadelphia at Miami – 07:30 PM

Philadelphia Miami
philadelphianba Vegas Total 193 miaminba Vegas Total 193
Vegas Sprd 14.0 Vegas Sprd -14.0
Team Proj. 89.5 Team Proj. 103.5
Team Pace 99.62 Team Pace 96.89
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter T.J. McConnell Nik Stauskas Jerami Grant Nerlens Noel Jahlil Okafor Proj Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Luol Deng Chris Bosh Hassan Whiteside
Opp. Season 3 3 22 10 13 Opp. Season 20 4 30 29 27
Opp. Last 7 18 18 24 15 11 Opp. Season 6 14 30 28 25

Philadelphia

Nerlens Noel and Robert Covington are ones to watch with injuries, but the 76ers should be relatively healthy going into this one. That doesn’t help a ton, as they are the worst team in the NBA and still haven’t won a game.

The 76ers are 14-point underdogs and are facing a Miami team that has been one of the best defenses in the league. Jahlil Okafor gets big usage, but he’s really struggled lately and Nerlens Noel came off the bench last night. T.J. McConnell can stuff a stat sheet, but lacks upside due to his inability to score, so overall this a team that should be avoided.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Miami

You always have to monitor the status of a guy like Dwyane Wade, especially in a likely blowout against the hapless 76ers, and Luol Deng is dealing with an illness. If Deng sits then Justise Winslow would likely be the primary beneficiary.

On paper, this is a premier spot for the Heat, but the worry is how long this game stays competitive with a spread of 14 points as the 76ers are just awful right now. For that reason most of the Heat starters like Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade are better suited for tournaments, but the upside is there if the game stays close. In particular, Hassan Whiteside brings TONS of upside in this spot. Jahlil Okafor is getting blocked at an astounding rate and even a non jumper like Al Jefferson recorded 5 blocks last night. On the season, opposing centers are averaging 4.5 blocks per game so this is a game where an elite shot blocker like Whiteside could pile up 10 blocks. The minutes are a concern due to the blowout, but he’s one of the top tournament plays on the day.

Tyler Johnson has flashed scoring potential off the bench at times this year, but he’s not near as safe as a guy like Dellavedova, who is similarly priced. Given the blowout factor, he could pick up some extra minutes so maybe he’s worth a tournament dart throw. The minutes have been there for Goran Dragic but the production hasn’t, so even in a prime matchup, he’s a risky fantasy option. If Luol Deng sits then Justise Winslow enters the equation as a punt option. He’s been a low fantasy point per minute producer this year but the 76ers should provide an uptick in production.

Elite Plays

Hassan Whiteside

FD: $8,500 — DK: $8,300
Min/Game: 28.5 — Usage Rate: 22.70

Secondary Plays

Dwyane Wade

FD: $7,000 — DK: $6,500
Min/Game: 29.2 — Usage Rate: 30.60

Chris Bosh

FD: $8,100 — DK: $7,500
Min/Game: 32.2 — Usage Rate:

Justise Winslow (if Luol Deng out)

FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,400
Min/Game: 28.3 — Usage Rate:

Atlanta at Cleveland – 07:30 PM

Atlanta Cleveland
atlantanba Vegas Total clevelandnba Vegas Total
Vegas Sprd Vegas Sprd
Team Proj. Team Proj.
Team Pace 98.81 Team Pace 95.77
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Paul Millsap Paul Millsap Al Horford Proj Starter Matthew Dellavedova J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Anderson Varejao
Opp. Season 4 17 17 3 6 Opp. Season 15 23 7 16 30
Opp. Last 7 8 25 10 3 24 Opp. Season 24 9 9 7 28

Atlanta

The Hawks will head to Cleveland looking for revenge for last year’s playoff sweep at the hands of the Cleveland Cavaliers. Jeff Teague is listed as questionable to play, while Kent Bazemore will be out, so there could be value in the Atlanta backcourt.

Cleveland has played very good defensive this season and is top five in both points allowed per game and fantasy points allowed so this is a tough spot for the Hawks. They’re not a great fantasy team to begin with as they play great team basketball and can really spread the production around.

Paul Millsap has been their top fantasy producer and is having a very productive year. However, he’s the top priced PF option on the board, and given the tough matchup, I’d prefer to spend at SF and C so he’s a secondary option today. Al Horford is in the same boat as he’s an ok option, but I think there are other centers in better spots tonight.

If Jeff Teague sits for another game then Dennis Schroder is once again a prime value. His price is on the rise, but even at his higher price point, he’s been hitting 6x value with Teague out. If Teague returns, he’s in play for tournaments only as I typically avoid players in their first game back from injury. Kyle Korver has struggled this year, but the Cavs have been weak against SG and he should be in line for at least 30 minutes so he’s a secondary option at SG.

Elite Plays

Dennis Schroder (if Jeff Teague out)

FD: $5,100 — DK: $5,600
Min/Game: 24.6 — Usage Rate:

Secondary Plays

Al Horford

FD: $7,500 — DK: $7,000
Min/Game: 31.4 — Usage Rate: 22.90

Kyle Korver

FD: $4,800 — DK: $4,500
Min/Game: 31.4 — Usage Rate: 13.3

Paul Millsap

FD: $8,500 — DK: $8,200
Min/Game: 34.3 — Usage Rate: 23.10

Cleveland

The Cavs will be down two starter as Mo Williams and Timofey Mozgov are both expected to be out, so Matthew Dellavedova and Tristan Thompson should see a minutes bump. J.R. Smith has also been accused of choking a teenager but is expected to play. I’d like to say it’s a surprise, but with J.R. nothing in really a surprise.

Cleveland is dealing with plenty of injuries so I’d expect all of their starters to see quality playing time in this one. The Hawks have defended the SF position very well this season, but this is LeBron James we’re talking about and he’s matchup proof. He doesn’t flash that 60 fantasy point upside as much anymore, but he’s still playing 35+ minutes a night and you can chalk him up for 40 to 50 fantasy points on a nightly basis.

If you’re looking for value then Matthew Dellavedova and Tristan Thompson are great options today. Both of their usage rates are low, but their minutes should carry them here. Dellevadova played 39 minutes with Mo Williams out last game and needs just around 20 fantasy points to hit value, which is very obtainable. Meanwhile, the Hawks are dead last in DVP against centers and haven’t been able to rebound this season so Thompson should have a big day on the glass. I don’t love PF today so he’s a nice value that lets you spend up at other positions. Anderson Varejao may actually draw the start at center but Thompson is the much-preferred play as Varejao is just not going to play big minutes at this point in his career.

Kevin Love has double-digit rebounds in six of his last eight and should also take advantage of the Hawks rebounding problems. His production can be volatile so I typically use him in tournament formats as opposed to cash games. Finally, J.R. Smith is playing big minutes and the Hawks are 23rd in DVP against SG so he’s a secondary option (assuming everything is ok with his off the court issues).

Elite Plays

LeBron James

FD: $10,100 — DK: $10,100
Min/Game: 36.3 — Usage Rate: 33.80

Tristan Thompson

FD: $5,300 — DK: $4,800
Min/Game: 24.4 — Usage Rate: 11.90

Matthew Dellavedova

FD: $4,100 — DK: $4,100
Min/Game: 26.6 — Usage Rate:

Secondary Plays

Kevin Love

FD: $7,900 — DK: $8,100
Min/Game: 34.4 — Usage Rate: 24.20

J.R. Smith

FD: $5,000 — DK: $4,400
Min/Game: 29.4 — Usage Rate:

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About the Author

a25smith
Andy Smith (a25smith)