NBA Grind Down: Sunday, April 10th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Charlotte at Washington – 01:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Charlotte -5, 207 Over/Under
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Lee-Batum-Williams-Zeller
- Washington Proj. Starters – Sessions-Beal-Porter-Morris-Gortat
| Charlotte | Washington | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207 |  | Vegas Total | 207 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 106.0 | Team Proj. | 101.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.69 | Team Pace | 100.47 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kemba Walker | Courtney Lee | Nicolas Batum | Marvin Williams | Cody Zeller | Proj Starter | Ramon Sessions | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opp. Season | 20 | 17 | 20 | 9 | 9 | Opp. Season | 10 | 13 | 21 | 23 | 12 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 16 | 1 | 26 | 15 | Opp. Season | 9 | 22 | 27 | 11 | 4 | |
Charlotte
Washington Wizards Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.6 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.7 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.5 (25 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 200.7 (14 of 30)
Washington has been a below average defensive squad this year. They are ranked 15th in defensive efficiency, while ranking 21st in points allowed per game. The Hornets will make the playoffs this year and continue to fight for positioning in the East, which makes for a team that has something to play for today. Charlotte has a projected team total of 106.0, which is three points higher than their season average. Jeremy Lamb is questionable for this game and his absence would give a slight bump to Jeremy Lin and Courtney Lee, but neither have big upside.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Kemba is the only Hornet that looks worth playing today. The return of Batum on Friday did not have an impact on Walker’s production as he still put up a 40 point fantasy effort. If you are playing the all-day slate, there are many better options at the point guard position, but Kemba can put up a big game against the Wizards today and should be viewed as a low-owned GPP play.
FD — $8,000 — PG
Usage – 25.6
Min/Game — Season: 35.9
Washington
Charlotte Hornets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.5 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.8 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.8 (19 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 200.8 (15 of 30)
Charlotte has been a solid defensive team this year and are ranked in the top ten in both points allowed and defensive efficiency. They take on a Wizards squad that has now been eliminated from the playoffs and have given up the last few games, while John Wall sits. He may be shut down for their last few games and if he is, a number of players would make great plays in his absence. The Wizards have a 101.0-projected team total, which is two points lower than their season average.
Elite Plays
Vegas all but expects Wall to sit today as they have already put a line up for the game. If he does indeed sit, Ramon Session and Bradley Beal would become elite plays on the day. Otto Porter, Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat would all get boosts in usage with Morris having the biggest upside of the three as more shots will go his way as shown by the 20 he put up on Friday.
Ramon Sessions
FD — $4,200 — PG
Usage – 21.1
Min/Game — Season: 19.8
FD — $6,000 — SG
Usage – 23.9
Min/Game — Season: 31.5
Secondary Plays
FD — $5,800 — PF
Usage – 21.5
Min/Game — Season: 25.6
FD — $5,300 — SF
Usage – 15.2
Min/Game — Season: 30.7
FD — $6,300 — C
Usage – 17.5
Min/Game — Season: 30.2
Dallas at L.A. Clippers – 03:30 PM
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Juan Barea-Matthews-Anderson-Nowitzki-Pachulia
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Prigioni-Crawford-Pierce-Mbah a Moute-Aldrich
| Dallas | L.A. Clippers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | Vegas Sprd | |||||||||||
| Team Proj. | Team Proj. | |||||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.55 | Team Pace | 97.91 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jose Juan Barea | Wesley Matthews | Justin Anderson | Dirk Nowitzki | Zaza Pachulia | Proj Starter | Pablo Prigioni | Jamal Crawford | Paul Pierce | Luc Mbah a Moute | Cole Aldrich | |
| Opp. Season | 6 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 15 | Opp. Season | 13 | 12 | 8 | 24 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 15 | 2 | Opp. Season | 1 | 27 | 3 | 3 | 19 | |
Dallas
Los Angeles Clippers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.4 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.2 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.6 (29 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 194.6 (6 of 30)
The Clippers are one of the better defensive teams in the NBA as they are ranked in the top seven in points allowed, defensive efficiency and fantasy points allowed per game. The Dallas Mavericks continue to battle for the final playoff spots in the west and are trying to move up a spot or two so they do now have to face San Antonio or GSW in the first round. The Mavs have a projected team total of 96.0 for this game, which is 6.6 points lower than their season average. The big question mark is J.J. Barea who is listed as questionable for this game along with Deron Williams who has missed the last eight.
Elite Plays
Raymond Felton and Justin Anderson
If both Williams and Barea are out, Felton and Anderson become some of the better value plays today. Both will play minutes in the high 30’s and would get an even bigger bump if some of the Clippers starters sit for this game. There are a few ifs that go along with this today, so keep an eye on the news and be ready to make some changes to your original lineups.
Secondary Plays
I can also see playing Dirk Nowitzki today as well, but his recent play has been lacking a bit and there are a number of good power forward options today.
L.A. Clippers
Dallas Mavericks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.0 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.4 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.9 (26 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 202.1 (19 of 30)
The Mavericks are a slightly below average defensive squad this year. Vegas has this game being one of the lower scoring matchups on the slate at only a 195 game total with the Clippers being slight three point favorites. The big question is who will and won’t play for the Clippers, but regardless, they have their seed locked up for the playoff and their starters will likely not play a full compliment of minutes these last few games. They are too risky of plays unless for tournament flyers today, but keep an eye out for players resting as the backups will be great value like they were on Friday.
Elite Plays
Check News/Check Back here
Secondary Plays
Check News/Check back here
L.A. Lakers at Houston – 03:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Houston -14, 212 Over/Under
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Russell-Clarkson-Bryant-Randle-Hibbert
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Howard
| L.A. Lakers | Houston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 212 |  | Vegas Total | 212 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 14.0 | Vegas Sprd | -14.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.0 | Team Proj. | 113.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.86 | Team Pace | 99.90 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | D’Angelo Russell | Jordan Clarkson | Kobe Bryant | Julius Randle | Roy Hibbert | Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Dwight Howard | |
| Opp. Season | 14 | 22 | 30 | 29 | 18 | Opp. Season | 30 | 28 | 27 | 17 | 29 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 3 | 29 | 12 | 13 | Opp. Season | 25 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 20 | |
L.A. Lakers
Houston Rockets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.4 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.0 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.6 (21 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 209.3 (26 of 30)
Houston has been a very poor defensive squad in the league as evidenced by them being ranked 21st or worse in all the above defensive categories. This Lakers team is trying to finish the Kobe farewell tour and have a projected total of 99.3, which is two points higher than their season average. Lou Williams and Brandon Bass continue to be healthy DNP for the remaining games on the schedule.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
The Lakers are a tough team to predict at the moment. I can see taking a chance with Julius Randle in this game due to the very poor defense of the Rockets against the power forward. Kobe in the only other Laker right now we know will put up a bunch of shots, but his minutes have not been there the last few games. It is a very risky play, but one with a good amount of upside if his shot is falling.
FD — $5,100 — SG
DK — $4,800 — SG
Usage – 29.9
Min/Game — Season: 28.2
Houston
Los Angeles Lakers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.6 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.2 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.5 (27 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 213.9 (30 of 30)
The Lakers are one of the best teams to pick on every time they take the floor. They are ranked 26th or worse in all the above defensive categories, which results in a Houston projected team total of 113.3, which is 7.5 points higher than their season average. The Rockets are basically all but out of the playoff picture, yet there is a way if a lot of things go their way they can still make it, which does make them one of the teams with something to play for today.
Elite Plays
Harden has played minutes in the low 40’s for his last nine games as the Rockets try to latch onto the last few playoff spots in the Western Conference. He has a dream matchup today against the Lakers who are ranked 28th in the league at defending the shooting guard position. While the playoffs are unlikely, the chance should give Harden at least one more game of high usage going forward.
FD — $10,600 — SG
DK — $10,800 — SG
Usage – 32.0
Min/Game — Season: 38.2
Secondary Plays
I do not know what has happened to Dwight Howard as even in this matchup I do not feel comfortable throwing him out there. Ariza on the other hand is a cheap option that will play close to 40 minutes in a great matchup against the Lakers’ 28th ranked defense against small forwards. He is not going to have the highest ceiling, but should hit value today.
FD — $5,800 — SF
DK — $5,800 — SF
Usage – 15.1
Min/Game — Season: 35.5
Milwaukee at Philadelphia – 05:00 PM
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Ennis-Vaughn-Antetokounmpo-Parker-Monroe
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Smith-Stauskas-Grant-Noel-
| Milwaukee | Philadelphia | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | Vegas Sprd | |||||||||||
| Team Proj. | Team Proj. | |||||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.49 | Team Pace | 100.31 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tyler Ennis | Rashad Vaughn | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Jabari Parker | Greg Monroe | Proj Starter | Ish Smith | Nik Stauskas | Jerami Grant | Nerlens Noel | ||
| Opp. Season | 28 | 20 | 29 | 28 | 30 | Opp. Season | 4 | 24 | 26 | 19 | 25 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 7 | 28 | Opp. Season | 7 | 23 | 15 | 28 | 29 | |
Milwaukee
Philadelphia 76ers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.3 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.4 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -5.8 (30 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 213.2 (29 of 30)
Our first game where neither team has a chance for the playoffs is the 76ers against the Bucks. The 76ers are notably one of the worst defensive teams in the league this year. Khris Middleton will likely sit for this game along with Jerryd Bayless who did not travel with the team. If Middleton continues to be out, Antetokounmpo gets a nice boost in usage.
Elite Plays
The Greek Freak’s minutes were down in the game on Friday against Boston, but that is simply because he was fouling like crazy and picked up his fourth about 30 seconds into the second half. It appeared as if he would have played a normal allotement of minutes if this wouldn’t have happened and he was on pace for a monster type game. With Middleton out, he is the offense and should have a huge game against the 76ers. With that said, there is slight risk with nothing to play for today.
FD — $9,700 — SF
DK — $10,000 — SF
Usage – 21.8
Min/Game — Season: 35.3
Secondary Plays
Parker makes a decent play today as well as the Bucks have been playing him big time minutes down the stretch. Like Giannis there is slight risk, but he should be able to put up a solid line even in 30-35 minutes today against the 76ers who rank 30th against the power forward position.
FD — $6,500 — PF
DK — $6,200 — PF
Usage – 19.4
Min/Game — Season: 31.7
Philadelphia
Milwaukee Bucks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.9 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.7 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.6 (21 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 203.7 (21 of 30)
The Bucks are a slightly below average defensive squad this year as they are ranked 21st in the league in rebounding, fantasy points allowed and rebounding differential. The 76ers clearly have nothing to play for and have announced that Isaiah Canaan is out for the rest of the season, while Carl Landry is questionable. If Landry sits again and Nerlens Noel gets the start, he could make a decent tournament play.
Elite Plays
Covington has played very well over the last few games and is coming off a 30 real point effort on Friday against the Knicks. With Canaan out, it should open up even more shots to Covington who took 21 on Friday night. He makes a solid play in an ugly game today.
FD — $6,600 — SF
DK — $6,600 — SF
Usage – 19.7
Min/Game — Season: 27.9
Secondary Plays
The player that will likely most benefit from Canaan being out would be Smith. His minutes are a lock for 35+ going forward and is coming off a 40.9 point fantasy effort.
FD — $6,400 — PG
DK — $6,200 — PG
Usage – 22.1
Min/Game — Season: 28.8
Utah at Denver – 05:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Utah -6, 192 Over/Under
- Utah Proj. Starters – Mack-Hood-Hayward-Favors-Gobert
- Denver Proj. Starters – Mudiay-Harris-Sampson—Nurkic
| Utah | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 192 |  | Vegas Total | 192 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -6.0 | Vegas Sprd | 6.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.0 | Team Proj. | 93.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 93.28 | Team Pace | 98.19 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Shelvin Mack | Rodney Hood | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Rudy Gobert | Proj Starter | Emmanuel Mudiay | Gary Harris | JaKarr Sampson | Jusuf Nurkic | ||
| Opp. Season | 22 | 27 | 19 | 25 | 11 | Opp. Season | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 17 | 17 | 29 | 11 | Opp. Season | 2 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 23 | |
Utah
Denver Nuggets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.1 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.5 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.0 (9 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 207.0 (23 of 30)
Denver is always one of the better teams to pick on as they are a below average defensive squad. Yet, playing in Utah, will slow this pace down a lot as Vegas has this as the lowest scoring game overall with a total of 192.5. Utah has a projected team total of 99.0, which is actually 1.3 points higher than their season average. Utah has been very lucky to still be holding onto the eighth playoff spot so they have a lot to play for today.
Elite Plays
Hayward makes an excellent choice at small forward as he gets to face a Denver squad that is ranked 24th against his position and is in a spot where he should see full minutes. He is coming off a 24 point 13 rebound effort on Friday and should continue his solid play against the Nuggets.
FD — $6,400 — PG
DK — $6,200 — PG
Usage – 24.8
Min/Game — Season: 36.2
Secondary Plays
Favors is in a very similar spot to Hayward. He gets a great matchup against Denver (24th against the power forward) and will see full minutes. Favors has not been playing his best basketball of the season recently making him a little riskier than Hayward, but a matchup against Denver could help.
FD — $6,700 — PF
DK — $6,500 — PF
Usage – 22.5
Min/Game — Season: 32.0
Shelvin Mack and Rodney Hood are also in play as they should see good minutes and have a great matchup. Their recent play is a bit lacking to fully trust them, but are deep secondary plays today.
Denver
Utah Jazz Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.8 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.5 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 3.4 (5 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 184.3 (2 of 30)
Utah is one of the best defensive teams in the league this year and are ranked in the top seven in all the above defensive categories. The Nuggets have the lowest projected team total of the games that have lines currently at 93.0 points, which is 9.2 points lower than their season average. Both Kenneth Faried and Darrell Arthur are questionable to play today. If this is the case, I can see taking a GPP flyer on the healthy big men Nikola Jokic and/or Jusuf Nurkic. Both played well in their last game with the extra minutes, but have a very tough matchup against the Jazz.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None