NBA Grind Down: Sunday, March 11th

by Allan Lem (fathalpert) Last Updated 2018-03-11 21:20:48

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Toronto Raptors at New York Knicks – 1:00 PM ET

Toronto Raptors							New York Knicks
			Vegas Total		218.0					Vegas Total		218.0
			Vegas Spread		-9.5					Vegas Spread		9.5
			Implied Team Total		113.8					Implied Team Total		104.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.5					Pace Projection +/-		0.8
Projected Starters	Kyle Lowry	DeMar DeRozan	Norman Powell	Serge Ibaka	Jonas Valanciunas		Projected Starters	Emmanuel Mudiay	Courtney Lee	Tim Hardaway	Lance Thomas	Enes Kanter
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	28	18	18	12	9		DvP	5	3	4	8	19
DRPM Rat.	30	18	18	17	28		DRPM Rat.	3	22	19	13	14

Toronto Raptors

Notable Injuries

OG Anunoby (Doubtful), Delon Wright (Doubtful)

Hello Grinders. We have a massive nine game slate this Sunday. This first game is not on the early or main slates, but DraftKings and FanDuel do have one-game slates as an option for this Raptors/Knicks game, so I will be covering it with that framework in mind. If you’ve never played a one-game slate before, you can generally only fit in one stud on DraftKings and possibly two studs on FanDuel, with secondary pieces around it.

The Raptors are heavy favorites in this game and in their three previous meetings this season, the Knicks won once by 8 points while the other two games saw the Raptors win by 23 and 25 points. In that latest 25-point game, Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan only scored 7 and 8 real life points, respectively, while Jonas Valanciunas led all starters with 18 points and 10 rebounds. This game was dominated by the Raptors’ strong second unit, where Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, Delon Wright, C.J. Miles and Jakob Poeltl all saw at least 20 minutes of run in the blowout.

If you think this game blows out, I would probably target one of the big four starters (Lowry, DeRozan, Ibaka, Valanciunas) and then get exposure to the second unit. Lowry is my favorite of the starters given his elite matchup against Emmanuel Mudiay defense. VanVleet is my favorite target on the second unit with Delon Wright out. Norman Powell also stands out as a potential value play on both sites. He’s likely to draw another start with OG Anunoby doubtful, and he’s played at least 28 minutes in his last two starts. I will admit he underwhelmed in his last start, but he’s the type of player who opens up your entire roster by using him and you just cross your fingers and toes that he has a solid game against Tim Hardaway Jr. and the Knicks, who rank 18th in DvP against small forwards.

Toronto Raptors Offense

Points Per Game: 112.0 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.8 (3 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 1.8 ( of 16)

Matchup vs. New York Knicks

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.1 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.7 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.7 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.0 (17 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry, Norman Powell, Fred VanVleet

Secondary Plays – DeMar DeRozan, Serge Ibaka, C.J. Miles, Pascal Siakam, Jonas Valanciunas

New York Knicks

Notable Injuries

Courtney Lee (Will return Sunday from personal leave)

I honestly don’t like the Knicks side of this game as much, as their minutes are wildly inconsistent and it’s hard to predict where the production will come from. Tim Hardaway Jr. is the closest thing to an elite play, as he’s averaging 32.5 minutes per game this season and has been less prone to Jeff Hornacek’s crazy rotations. Enes Kanter would be my secondary target. Even though he’s played 30 or fewer minutes over his last seven games, he’s averaging 1.25 fantasy points per minute so he’s uber efficiency when he’s on the court.

Courtney Lee has missed the past two games due to a death in the family but he’s scheduled to rejoin the Knicks on Sunday. I suspect his absence is why Troy Williams saw 26 minutes in their last game but I wouldn’t put it past Hornacek to give him another steady dose of minutes on Sunday even though Lee is back. I’m not going to list him as an elite or secondary play, but he’s a deep GPP dart throw if you think Hornacek is truly evaluating Williams.

Michael Beasley was moved back to the bench in favor of Lance Thomas, who is dirt cheap but doesn’t do a whole lot on offense. Thomas will see heavy minutes as a starter but I’d rather target Beasley, who has the ability to rack up points in a hurry. He dropped 29 DraftKings points two games ago when he was demoted, but then followed it up with an 11.75 point stinker.

It’s hard to trust any of Emmanuel Mudiay, Trey Burke and Frank Ntilikina given they’re eating into each others’ minutes and are all inconsistent. Mudiay is my favorite of the three given he’s the starter and possesses the most upside, but it’s not an ideal matchup against Kyle Lowry.

I’m going to call Kyle O’Quinn a secondary play but your guess is as good as mine whether it’s a Kyle O’Quinn day. I will say that if you’re building multiple teams, you’ll want at least some exposure to him in case this is one of those random explosions he’ll have from time to time.

New York Knicks Offense

Points Per Game: 103.8 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.3 (12 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 0.5 ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.3 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.5 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.5 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.3 (9 of 30)

Elite Plays – Tim Hardaway Jr., Enes Kanter

Secondary Plays – Michael Beasley, Emmanuel Mudiay, Kyle O’Quinn

Chicago Bulls at Atlanta Hawks – 3:30 PM ET

Chicago Bulls							Atlanta Hawks
			Vegas Total		215.5					Vegas Total		215.5
			Vegas Spread		3.0					Vegas Spread		-3.0
			Implied Team Total		106.3					Implied Team Total		109.3
			Pace Projection +/-		0.8					Pace Projection +/-		0.6
Projected Starters	Kris Dunn	Zach LaVine	Justin Holiday	Lauri Markkanen	Bobby Portis		Projected Starters	Dennis Schroder	Kent Bazemore	Taurean Prince	John Collins	Dewayne Dedmon
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	22	19	30	27	28		DvP	24	27	16	21	21
DRPM Rat.	29	2	26	15	13		DRPM Rat.	13	27	6	25	29

Chicago Bulls

Notable Injuries

Update 2:52pm EST – David Nwaba is starting over Justin Holiday, while Robin Lopez starts at center again. Addie Nwaba as a secondary play.

Paul Zipser (Doubtful)

The tanking Bulls are a hot mess right now. Because the NBA is forcing them to play Robin Lopez and Justin Holiday, the minutes are all over the place for these guys. Lopez and Holiday both drew starts on Friday and played the entire 1st quarter, and then neither saw any time the rest of the game despite the fact both helped the Bulls stay competitive in this game. I’m writing this on super early Sunday morning and I’ve yet to see any information on whether they will both start again, but at this point you just avoid both.

There are only five guys I have interest in on the Bulls: Kris Dunn, Zach LaVine, Lauri Markkanen, Denzel Valentine and Bobby Portis. It’s worth noting this is not a back-to-back for the Bulls, so I don’t expect LaVine to sit. LaVine is my favorite play on the Bulls despite having to face Kent Bazemore defense. The Hawks struggle with big men, and that puts Markkanen and Portis firmly in play. Portis struggled in his last game shooting 1-for-10, but this is a great matchup for him and I’m not expecting Robin Lopez to cut too much into his playing time. While Lopez started on Friday, Portis drew the second-half start.

I listed Valentine as someone of interest and I’d much prefer him if we hear Holiday will sit or play limited minutes. As such, he’s more a secondary GPP play for me.

Normally I’ll fire up point guards against Atlanta but I have some concerns about Kris Dunn. He’s priced as if he’s a starter but the Bulls have been giving Cameron Payne more and more minutes at his expense. You can see the RotoGrinders Game Flow tracker here that Payne played essentially the entire 4th quarter while Dunn sat. As a result, I’m off both players in case this is a trend and it’s more of a timeshare where Coach Hoiberg is trying to evaluate Payne for the future.

Chicago Bulls Offense

Points Per Game: 103.4 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.3 (10 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 2.8 ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.2 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.7 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.6 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.3 (9 of 30)

Elite Plays – Zach LaVine, Lauri Markkanen, Bobby Portis

Secondary Plays – David Nwaba, Denzel Valentine (GPP)

Atlanta Hawks

Notable Injuries

Update 2:13pm EST – Dennis Schroder is OUT and Isaiah Taylor will start. Starters are Taylor, Bazemore, Prince, Collins and Dedmon so Bazemore/Prince aren’t sitting. Moved Bazemore from a secondary play to elite play thinking the offense will flow through him on the first unit, although keep in mind the Hawks don’t really want to want this game either.

DeAndre Bembry (Out), Malcolm Delaney (Out), Dennis Schroder (Questionable), Isaiah Taylor (Probable)

Vegas expects this game to be close but the Hawks are dealing with some backcourt injuries. Dennis Schroder is listed as questionable and his absence would be a big blow to the Hawks. Bembry is out, Delaney is out and Isaiah Taylor is probable.

Neither the Bulls nor the Hawks have any incentive to try and win this game, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see Schroder or any of the starters (Bazemore, Prince) sit. Normally we’d avoid the Hawks on a full slate but given there’s only four games on this early slate, we’ll probably need exposure to the Hawks or at least an understanding of how their rotations may work if players sit.

There are way too many scenarios to run through if Schroder is out, or if Bazemore is rested, or if Taurean Prince is still in the doghouse after his last game where he was benched in favor of Jaylen Morris, who is on his second 10-day contract. So I think the best thing you can do is familiarize yourself with their depth chart and react to the news when it hits. I pulled the Hawks depth chart from realgm.com and added Jaylen Morris, who was omitted.

Basically here’s how I’m approaching it. If Schroder plays, I don’t have a ton of interest and I’ll probably just focus on the bigs (John Collins, Dewayne Dedmon), who both have good matchups against the Bulls as the Bulls rank 21st in DvP against power forwards and centers. If Schroder is out, Isaiah Taylor becomes an elite play. If Kent Bazemore is a surprise rest, Tyler Dorsey becomes an elite play. And if Taurean Prince is rested or benched in favor of Jaylen Morris, Morris becomes an elite play. The key is just to monitor the news prior to lock and see if the Hawks tip their hand.

Atlanta Hawks Offense

Points Per Game: 103.6 (22 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.3 (8 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 5.7 ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.4 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.4 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (13 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kent Bazemore, John Collins, Isaiah Taylor

Secondary Plays – Dewayne Dedmon, Taurean Prince,

Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves – 3:30 PM ET

Golden State Warriors							Minnesota Timberwolves
			Vegas Total		225.0					Vegas Total		225.0
			Vegas Spread		-5.0					Vegas Spread		5.0
			Implied Team Total		115.0					Implied Team Total		110.0
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.3					Pace Projection +/-		3.1
Projected Starters	Quinn Cook	Klay Thompson	Kevin Durant	Draymond Green	JaVale McGee		Projected Starters	Jeff Teague	Andrew Wiggins	Nemanja Bjelica	Taj Gibson	Karl-Anthony Towns
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	19	17	1	6	5		DvP	15	22	8	23	16
DRPM Rat.	21	28	10	14	22		DRPM Rat.	17	11	20	1	23

Golden State Warriors

Notable Injuries

Update 2:15pm EST – Quinn Cook will start. Iguodala still game time decision.

Jordan Bell (Out), Quinn Cook (Questionable), Stephen Curry (Out), Andre Iguodala (Questionable), David West (Out)

The Warriors are incredibly banged up right now, with Stephen Curry ruled out and backup point guard Quinn Cook questionable. The nice thing is we can use CourtIQ to help us determine how to attack the Warriors when they are down several key players (Bell, Curry, West) with several more banged up and questionable (Cook, Iguodala). You can find the CourtIQ run here.

The three main targets are simple: Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson. The Warriors are implied to score an early slate high of 115 points, so I don’t mind a stack using two or three of them. Durant leads the team with a 37% usage rate with Curry off and while his price is climbing, he’s essentially a cash game must. The DvP data is a bit misleading since it’s accounting for Jimmy Butler defense. Draymond also averages nearly 1.2 fantasy points per minute with Bell, Curry and West off the court and remains an elite play. I’m going to consider Klay Thompson a secondary play but he’s a great one in tournaments as he possesses the ability to break a slate.

If Andre Iguodala plays and Quinn Cook sits with his injury, I don’t mind Iguodala as a punt play. He should see ball-handling duties in the second unit. Just monitor the Warriors’ injury news.

As weird as it sounds, JaVale McGee has entered the conversation as a play we need to consider. He likely will only see minutes in the mid-to-high teens, but he’s been smashing lately in limited playing time and has scored in double-digits in three straight games. He’s supplanted Zaza Pachulia as the starter and with David West and Jordan Bell out, he’s being relied upon. He’s incredibly cheap and if he’s your way to jam in Durant as a last piece, I don’t mind it.

Golden State Warriors Offense

Points Per Game: 116.0 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 115.0 (2 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -1.0 ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.2 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.4 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (23 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kevin Durant, Draymond Green

Secondary Plays – Andre Iguodala (if he plays), JaVale McGee, Klay Thompson

Minnesota Timberwolves

Notable Injuries

Jimmy Butler (Out)

Vegas has this game with a 225 over/under and expects it to be close, so I expect plays from both sides of this game to be popular. Because Coach Thibs generally runs his starters into the ground until they turn into dust, all five starters are completely viable and in-play on this early slate. Karl-Anthony Towns and Jeff Teague profile as my favorite plays among the starters. Towns has had back-to-back poor performances, but has had to deal with the top ranked Boston Celtics’ defense and Rudy Gobert defense in those games. Meanwhile, Teague has scored at least 30 DraftKings points in nine straight games and will face off against a Curry-less Warriors team.

Nemanja Bjelica is coming off a career game that saw him drop 45.4 FanDuel points against the Celtics. He’s played at least 33 minutes in every game since becoming a starter for Jimmy Butler but I’m not going to chase that breakout performance. The Warriors rank 8th in DvP against small forwards and he’ll have to face Kevin Durant.

Andrew Wiggins and Taj Gibson deserve consideration on this short slate with the amount of minutes they’ll receive and this elite game environment, but they aren’t players I’m going out of my way to fit in. Wiggins has scored at least 30 DraftKings points in six straight games so he possesses a solid floor for cash games, but on a slate where we may be trying to jam in Durant and possibly Anthony Davis, playing Wiggins isn’t a huge priority for me. The same case can be made for Gibson, who has the best matchup on paper against the Warriors but isn’t someone I’m overly excited about to play unless he’s a last piece that makes my roster work.

I’ll point out that Derrick Rose has reunited with Coach Thibs but only played 7 minutes in his debut and shouldn’t be a factor in cutting into Teague’s minutes. Although it’d be very Thibs-like to randomly play Rose 40+ minutes one night and ruin whatever health Rose has remaining in that body.

Minnesota Timberwolves Offense

Points Per Game: 109.7 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.0 (7 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 0.3 ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.5 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.3 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.1 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.6 (2 of 30)

Elite Plays – Jeff Teague, Karl-Anthony Towns

Secondary Plays – Nemanja Bjelica, Taj Gibson, Andrew Wiggins

Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans – 4:00 PM ET

Utah Jazz							New Orleans Pelicans
			Vegas Total							Vegas Total
			Vegas Spread		-12.0					Vegas Spread		12.0
			Implied Team Total							Implied Team Total
			Pace Projection +/-		3.1					Pace Projection +/-		-2.2
Projected Starters	Ricky Rubio	Donovan Mitchell	Joe Ingles	Derrick Favors	Rudy Gobert		Projected Starters	Rajon Rondo	Jrue Holiday	E’Twaun Moore	Anthony Davis	Emeka Okafor
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	20	26	26	20	13		DvP	12	1	5	5	14
DRPM Rat.	23	2	30	1	16		DRPM Rat.	5	12	8	7	1

Utah Jazz

Notable Injuries

The Jazz/Pelicans game currently doesn’t have an over/under at the time of this writing due to Anthony Davis being a game-time decision. The Pelicans had their 10-game winning streak snapped on Friday and supposedly, Anthony Davis was warming up trying to convince Alvin Gentry to play. According to this quote by Pelicans beat writer Scott Kushner here, Gentry said Brow “seems to be ok.” I’m writing this with the assumption he does play, but just know we are dealing with the most fragile man in human history, so maybe that’s a wrong assumption on my part.

Since DeMarcus Cousins went down with his season-ending injury, the Pelicans lead the NBA in pace. This makes the Utah Jazz sneaky targets on this slate and feels like a spot where both Ricky Rubio and Rudy Gobert could smash. Donovan Mitchell and Joe Ingles also have great matchups, as the Pelicans rank 26th in DvP at both the shooting guard and small forward positions. Both are in-play on this slate for me.

How I feel about Derrick Favors is similar to how I feel about Taj Gibson above – he’s fine for his floor but I’m not going out of my way roster him. He may also match up against Anthony Davis if Brow returns.

If you need a punt and want exposure to this game on the Jazz side, give Jae Crowder a look. He’s been incredible off the bench for the Jazz and attempted 11 3-pointers in Friday’s game. He’s one of my favorite punt plays on this early slate and if Brow misses this game, Crowder could see extended run if this game got out of hand.

Utah Jazz Offense

Points Per Game: 102.7 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 16)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 16)

Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Points Allowed Per Game: 111.5 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.6 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.3 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.6 (2 of 30)

Elite Plays – Jae Crowder, Rudy Gobert, Ricky Rubio

Secondary Plays – Derrick Favors, Joe Ingles, Donovan Mitchell

New Orleans Pelicans

Notable Injuries

Anthony Davis (Game Time Decision)

I’ll approach the Pelicans in two ways. If Davis sits, I will try to limit my exposure to the Pelicans’ starters and instead focus my attention on the Warriors/Timberwolves game. I respect this Utah Jazz defense and I worry a bit that the Jazz will deploy a similar strategy the Wizards rolled out on Friday where they forced Jrue Holiday to give up the ball through double-teams and pressure. It clearly impacted Holiday and he burned the DFS community by scoring a season-low 4 points. If Brow is out, I would probably limit my exposure to Holiday and Nikola Mirotic (who may draw the start) to tournaments only in case this gets ugly quick. And if Brow were to miss the game, I would want some tournament exposure to secondary pieces like Cheick Diallo, who played the entire 4th quarter in Friday’s blowout.

If Anthony Davis plays on Sunday and has no reported restrictions, it’s clear what to do – you play him in tournaments and prioritize him in cash games behind Kevin Durant. For tournaments, I love playing Brow the day after an injury or when he’s coming back from an injury because his ownership tends to be lower. In cash games, I still prefer Durant as the centerpiece of my team and I’m not sure if we’ll have enough value to comfortably fit in both Durant and Brow at the moment. That’s something you’ll have to test when you fiddle with roster construction.

Outisde of Brow and Holiday, Rajon Rondo is the only other player I’d have much interest in. I’d feel more comfortable playing Rondo if Brow plays and this game can stay competitive. If it’s a blowout, Ian Clark is going to get extended run at the expense of Rondo.

New Orleans Pelicans Offense

Points Per Game: 112.5 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 16)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Utah Jazz

Points Allowed Per Game: 100.7 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.9 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.4 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.3 (27 of 30)

Elite Plays – Anthony Davis (if he plays), Jrue Holiday (prefer in GPPs)

Secondary Plays – Cheick Diallo (GPP if Anthony Davis sits), Nikola Mirotic (if Anthony Davis sits), Rajon Rondo (if Anthony Davis plays)

Sacramento Kings at Denver Nuggets – 5:00 PM ET

Sacramento Kings							Denver Nuggets
			Vegas Total							Vegas Total
			Vegas Spread							Vegas Spread
			Implied Team Total							Implied Team Total
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.4					Pace Projection +/-		-2.2
Projected Starters	Frank Mason	Bogdan Bogdanovic	Justin Jackson	Zach Randolph	Willie Cauley-Stein		Projected Starters	Jamal Murray	Gary Harris	Wilson Chandler	Paul Millsap	Nikola Jokic
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	25	5	22	22	18		DvP	18	15	17	19	29
DRPM Rat.	27	5	19	2	12		DRPM Rat.	N/A	23	23	28	24

Sacramento Kings

Notable Injuries

Update 2:17pm EST – De’Aaron Fox and Willie Cayley-Stein are now probable, so that takes me off Mason and Temple, and reduces my interest in Koufos and Randolph.

Willie Cauley-Stein (Questionable), De’Aaron Fox (Questionable), Skal Labissiere (Out), Iman Shumpert (Out)

The Kings are always a headache to try and figure out, and today is no different with Willie Cauley-Stein and De’Aaron Fox questionable. Sadly, those two have been the most consistent players in terms of knowing who will get minutes, so this has the potential to be trouble.

With Skal Labissiere out, we need to consider Zach Randolph and Kosta Koufos. And if Willie Cauley-Stein is ruled out, then both really need to be considered. Jack Cooley is also with the team and had a career high 8 points in 8 minutes, so the Kings do have some options in the front court.

If De’Aaron Fox is out, then it becomes another chalk Frank Mason day with Garrett Temple possibly drawing another start. Temple surprised everyone by starting and finishing with 23 points over 30 minutes. If Fox plays with no limitations, I’m off Mason and Temple.

Buddy Hield and Bogdan Bogdanovic continue to be serviceable but can be inconsistent, so I’d reserve them more in tournaments.

There’s a very real chance we won’t get information or lineups prior to lock so if you are playing cash games or don’t handle risk well, I would consider avoiding the Kings altogether. If you are playing tournaments and can handle shoveling money into a furnace, you may want to take some GPP-dart throws with these guys knowing you’ll get them at lower-than-normal ownership and that may be key to taking down a tournament on a short early slate.

Sacramento Kings Offense

Points Per Game: 99.2 (29 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 16)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Denver Nuggets

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.8 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.6 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.2 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.1 (15 of 30)

Elite Plays – De’Aaron Fox (if he starts, just be careful with exposure in case he reaggrivates the back injury)

Secondary Plays – Bogdan Bogdanovic, Buddy Hield (GPP), Willie Cauley-Stein

Denver Nuggets

Notable Injuries

Wilson Chandler (Probable)

With Wilson Chandler expected back on Sunday, that should shift Will Barton back to the bench. Nikola Jokic has the premiere matchup on the Nuggets as he faces a thin Kings front court. The Kings rank 29th in DvP against centers so this is theoretically a spot Jokic should dominate. The biggest problem I’ve had with Jokic lately is the introduction of Paul Millsap into the starting lineup initially hurt Jokic’s production. Jokic has responded well in back-to-back performances, finishing with 61.25 and 40.5 DraftKings points in those games. The most noticeable change is that his usage rates rose back to the 25%-29% range while it had been below 20% in the first three games with Millsap back. Perhaps Jokic is adjusting to life with Millsap (note to self: pitch “Life With Millsap” reality show to cable networks).

If Anthony Davis plays, you’re going to have to take some stands on how you handle Durant, Davis, Towns and Jokic. Realistically, you’ll want at least one in your cash game lineups and possibly two if enough value opens up. While I love the matchup for Jokic, I feel like he’s a better tournament play. I’m going to call him an elite play because the matchup is elite, but he’s probably behind Durant, Davis and Towns on my list of studs.

We finally saw Paul Millsap reach 30 minutes in his last game against the Lakers, which is great news for him. He’s still priced very fair across the industry and if he’s going to see 30 or more minutes against the Kings, he’s someone to consider for cash games.

Jamal Murray finally pieced together a fantastic game against the Lakers but had been struggling prior to that outburst. He profiles more as a secondary play with tournament upside given his recent inconsistencies. I love Gary Harris as a player, but $6,900 Gary Harris on DraftKings is starting to get a little too high for my blood. Don’t get me wrong, he’s been great lately, but I think I prefer him over on FanDuel at $6,700. With Wilson Chandler expected back, Will Barton should feast in the second unit. He’s probably my favorite play on the Nuggets factoring price and opportunity.

Denver Nuggets Offense

Points Per Game: 108.6 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 16)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.1 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 110.1 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.6 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.3 (27 of 30)

Elite Plays – Will Barton, Nikola Jokic

Secondary Plays – Gary Harris, Paul Millsap, Jamal Murray

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