NBA Grind Down: Sunday, March 25th

by Allan Lem (fathalpert) Last Updated 2018-03-25 20:31:42

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Cleveland Cavaliers at Brooklyn Nets – 1:00 PM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers							Brooklyn Nets
			Vegas Total		228.0					Vegas Total		228.0
			Vegas Spread		-6.5					Vegas Spread		6.5
			Implied Team Total		117.3					Implied Team Total		110.8
			Pace Projection +/-		1.4					Pace Projection +/-		0.5
Projected Starters	Jose Calderon	George Hill	LeBron James	Jeff Green	Kevin Love		Projected Starters	D’Angelo Russell	Allen Crabbe	DeMarre Carroll	Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	Jarrett Allen
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	28	10	12	27	30		DvP	25	22	29	18	21
DRPM Rat.	29	21	4	14	26		DRPM Rat.	13	26	25	16	19

Cleveland Cavaliers

Update 9:53am EST – Jeff Green has been ruled out.

Notable Injuries

Kyle Korver (Out)

Hello Grinders. We have an unusually large nine-game slate this Sunday but in some respects it’s an awkward slate in that there are two early games, a 5pm EST Heat/Pacers game that’s been excluded from the main slate but does have a single-game format on FanDuel, and then six games that make up the main slate. I’m going to do my best to keep this Grind Down as concise as possible, not just because of the huge amount of games but because we’re at the point in the season where late news could drop any moment that changes the dynamics of a team instantly. With that said, let’s dive in.

We start things off with the Cavaliers, who just shellacked the Suns by 25 points. Kyle Korver remains out, while Jeff Green was limited to just 12 minutes before leaving with an illness. We’ll need to monitor his status prior to tip-off but with the squad nearing full health, Green may not be needed much anyway moving forward.

Larry Nance (22 minutes), Rodney Hood (20 minutes) and Tristan Thompson (16 minutes) all made their returns on Friday and played well in limited time. It was known going into Friday’s game that they would have their minutes monitored, which explains why none of them played more than 22 minutes. I haven’t seen any news on their minutes for Sunday’s game but keep an eye out if you decide to play any of them in the early slate.

LeBron James posted another monster line of 27/9/6 in just 29 minutes against the Suns. At some point the Cavaliers have to consider resting him before the playoffs but the Cavaliers are 3rd in the East and separated by the 6th seeded Wizards by only three games. As much as the Cavs want to rest LeBron, I also don’t think they want to potentially fall to the 6th seed, so I’m assuming they continue playing hard. The Nets are 7th in pace but 24th in defensive efficiency, and this game has a tight spread where the Cavaliers are only favored by just 6.5 at the time of this writing. If I’m playing a slate with this game, I’m playing LeBron and working my lineup around him.

I’m a bit concerned with the front court now that Larry Nance, Tristan Thompson and Kevin Love are all healthy. It’s possible Jeff Green could continue to start while Nance and Thompson work their way back into shape, but at some point I would think Nance and Love start alongside together and it could come as soon as Sunday. Given the matchup, Love is still an elite play as the Nets rank dead last in DvP against centers. I would actually prefer Larry Nance off the bench anchoring the second unit.

Similar to the crowded front court, the back court may get crowded too with Rodney Hood back. Jose Calderon and George Hill have been starting alongside each other but I would think Rodney Hood rejoins the starting lineup at some point. If Rodney Hood draws the start and shifts George Hill back to the point guard role, I wouldn’t mind Hill as a sneaky punt as he’ll face off against D’Angelo Russell. The Nets have been awful this season at defending point guards. But if Calderon continues to start at point guard, Calderon would be nothing more than a deep GPP punt that you’d only consider because of his dirt cheap price and fantastic matchup, but I don’t ever want to play Jose Calderon.

Cleveland Cavaliers Offense

Points Per Game: 110.8 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 117.3 (1 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 6.5 ( of 14)

Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.4 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.7 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.8 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.0 (7 of 30)

Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kevin Love

Secondary Plays – George Hill (prefer if he’s playing point guard), Larry Nance (prefer if he’s in the second unit)

Brooklyn Nets

Notable Injuries

None

Cleveland ranks among the bottom half in DvP for every position, making this a sneaky spot for the Nets. This game also has the highest over/under on Sunday’s slate, meaning you could just stack this game on an early slate and hope it stays close. The Nets nearly pulled off an upset against the top-ranked Toronto Raptors last game out and deployed a strict nine-man rotation.

D’Angelo Russell is the clear elite play for the Nets. He’s coming off his first triple-double and now faces a Cavaliers team that ranks 25th in DvP against point guards. He also took a massive 21 shot attempts in just 31 minutes.

DeMarre Carroll continues to be a steady rock for the Nets and has now played at least 28 minutes in nine of his last ten games, and has scored double-digit points in eight of his last ten games. He’s not a flashy player but he’s by far their most consistent player.

I know some prefer Caris LeVert or Spencer Dinwiddie, but I just don’t trust them. Dinwiddie hasn’t scored more than 28 FanDuel points in his last nine games and he’s been struggling in his new role off the bench. LeVert is also a tournament option, but honestly, I’d rather pay down for Allen Crabbe, who is starting and getting consistent minutes.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson remains a fantastic tournament play on any slate he’s on. He’s probably got the most upside on this team outside of Russell, but where I have interest depends on the site. On DraftKings’ one-game Showdown slate he’s the highest priced player on the Nets, which is too much for me to pay. On FanDuel he’s more reasonable at $6,300, so I would prefer my tournament exposure to him there.

I do need to mention Jarrett Allen, who has been posting some solid games. The Nets seem committed to at least riding him and developing him for next season. I don’t love the matchup against Kevin Love, but on a short slate he provides some savings and comes with solid upside that other players in his price range don’t offer.

Brooklyn Nets Offense

Points Per Game: 106.2 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.8 (4 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 4.6 ( of 14)

Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.4 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.9 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.3 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (12 of 30)

Elite Plays – D’Angelo Russell

Secondary Plays – Jarrett Allen, DeMarre Carroll, Allen Crabbe, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (FD)

San Antonio Spurs at Milwaukee Bucks – 3:30 PM ET

San Antonio Spurs							Milwaukee Bucks
			Vegas Total							Vegas Total
			Vegas Spread							Vegas Spread
			Implied Team Total							Implied Team Total
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.3					Pace Projection +/-		-2.4
Projected Starters	Dejounte Murray	Patty Mills	Danny Green	Kyle Anderson	LaMarcus Aldridge		Projected Starters	Eric Bledsoe	Sterling Brown	Khris Middleton	Giannis Antetokounmpo	John Henson
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	5	12	4	10	25		DvP	3	2	6	1	5
DRPM Rat.	12	2	26	3	7		DRPM Rat.	1	27	1	1	8

San Antonio Spurs

Notable Injuries

Kawhi Leonard (Out)

How I handle the Spurs is pretty simple – play LaMarcus Aldridge and everyone else is a wildcard. Pop is completely unpredictable and at times will do a hockey line change and swap out an entire starting unit with his second unit whenever he feels the need to shake things up. If you’re playing an early slate with this game on it, I’d probably focus my attention on LaMarcus Aldridge and then load up on players from the Bucks and other game on the slate.

Aldridge is coming off a career high 45 points and he now gets to feast against a Bucks team ranking 25th in DvP against centers. This has the looks to be another blowup spot. It is worth mentioning that the Spurs played heavy minutes in their last game against the Jazz because it went into overtime and Aldridge played 41 minutes, but given the Spurs are fighting for playoff positioning, I don’t expect Pop to go easy on his starters since they don’t play again until Tuesday.

Your guess is as good as mine as to who else steps up on the Spurs. Patty Mills played 41 minutes last game and put up 34 DraftKings points. I’d probably rather play Dejounte Murray than chase the Mills breakout game. Even Manu Ginobili played heavy minutes (27) and posted a good game against the Jazz, while Kyle Anderson continues to post respectable numbers. I just don’t know which one to trust or where the fantasy production will come from outside of Aldridge, so they all remain tournament options you’d probably want some exposure to if you’re running multiple teams. But if you’re a single-entry person, I’d probably just focus on Aldridge.

San Antonio Spurs Offense

Points Per Game: 102.1 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 14)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 14)

Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.3 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.0 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.6 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (23 of 30)

Elite Plays – LaMarcus Aldridge

Secondary Plays – None

Milwaukee Bucks

Notable Injuries

Giannis Antetokounmpo (Game Time Decision)

Giannis Antetokounmpo is a game time decision, which makes this analysis hard. If he’s playing, I would consider him an elite play given his recent injury may keep his ownership lower than normal if people are afraid to play him. And if we truly don’t get word before lock on his status, I doubt many people will take the risk of playing him against the Spurs as that could be shoveling money into a furnace.

If we get word he’s out, Khris Middleton, Jabari Parker, Eric Bledsoe and John Henson all see big usage bumps. Per CourtIQ when Giannis, Malcolm Brogdon and Matthew Dellavedova are off the court, all four players average a fantasy point per minute. Eric Bledsoe leads the team with a 30.6% usage rate and 1.27 fantasy points per minute. The one caveat is that these numbers don’t take into account they will be facing the Spurs, who rank 2nd in defensive efficiency in the NBA. You can find the CourtIQ run here.

Bledsoe struggled with foul trouble all game in his last outing, which is why he only played 20 minutes and why Brandon Jennings busted out with 33 DraftKings points. Assuming he can keep his hands to himself and stay out of foul trouble, I would expect him to bounce back. While I don’t love targeting players against the Spurs, I still consider Bledsoe and Middleton as elite plays if Giannis is out. Jabari Parker didn’t do well but he’s now played 30 minutes in back-to-back games, which is encouraging. DraftKings raised his price a lot, so I like him more on FanDuel. Henson is more a secondary play given it’s not a great matchup, but he’s been seeing a steady dose of minutes lately so he’s someone to at least keep in mind on a small early slate.

Milwaukee Bucks Offense

Points Per Game: 105.8 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 14)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 14)

Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs

Points Allowed Per Game: 98.8 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.7 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.9 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.2 (29 of 30)

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo (GPP, if he plays), Eric Bledsoe (if Giannis is out), Khris Middleton (if Giannis is out)

Secondary Plays – Jabari Parker (if Giannis is out, prefer on FanDuel), John Henson

Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers – 5:00 PM ET

Miami Heat							Indiana Pacers
			Vegas Total		207.0					Vegas Total		207.0
			Vegas Spread		3.5					Vegas Spread		-3.5
			Implied Team Total		101.8					Implied Team Total		105.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.2					Pace Projection +/-		-2.1
Projected Starters	Goran Dragic	Tyler Johnson	Josh Richardson	James Johnson	Bam Adebayo		Projected Starters	Darren Collison	Victor Oladipo	Bojan Bogdanovic	Thaddeus Young	Myles Turner
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	8	4	14	11	26		DvP	4	9	1	6	8
DRPM Rat.	19	1	24	5	12		DRPM Rat.	22	19	9	12	14

Miami Heat

Notable Injuries

Hassan Whiteside (Out)

Hassan Whiteside is out, meaning Bam Adebayo should draw another start. Despite starting, I’d much rather play Kelly Olynyk, who has been fantastic off the bench. He came crashing back to earth last game, playing just 19 minutes and scoring only 19.5 FanDuel points. That was against a Thunder team where he didn’t match up well against. I could see him doing much better against this Pacers team.

The Pacers have done well against guards this season, making Goran Dragic a secondary play for me. I’d much rather target James Johnson, who has been fantastic since Whiteside’s injury. He exploded for 58.2 FanDuel points in that double-overtime game against the Nuggets, but has since posted two games where he’s scored under 30 FanDuel points. I’m not ready to hop off his bandwagon just yet.

Josh Richardson is fine but I’d expect him to draw some Lance Stephenson defense, which bumps him down a notch in my book. Still, I think I prefer him over Goran Dragic given their price difference.

Miami Heat Offense

Points Per Game: 103.3 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.8 (12 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -1.6 ( of 14)

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.2 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.5 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.8 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.4 (20 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Goran Dragic, James Johnson, Kelly Olynyk, Josh Richardson

Indiana Pacers

Notable Injuries

Domantas Sabonis (Game Time Decision)

Domantas Sabonis has been upgraded to a game time decision, so we’ll need to monitor that news. The Pacers have a difficult matchup on paper as the Heat rank in the top 9 in DvP for every position. With Darren Collison back in the starting lilneup, I much prefer using him over Victor Oladipo and taking my savings. This isn’t to say Oladipo is a bad play, but I question his upside now with Collison back in the starting lineup.

If we hear Sabonis is out, that’s a slight upgrade for Myles Turner. Turner is always a viable tournament play on any slate but this sets up as a difficult matchup. I’d honestly rather take the floor of Thaddeus Young, who has been playing well lately. Young is cheaper than Turner and in my opinion, possesses a similar floor and ceiling as Turner against this stingy Heat defense.

I’m not going to chase the 37.5 FanDuel point performance by Bojan Bogdanovic. That was against a woeful Clippers defense rolling out Wesley Johnson to defend him. This matchup against Josh Richardson sets up to be more difficult.

If you’re playing the one-game format on FanDuel, you have to at least consider Lance Stephenson off the bench. I wouldn’t play Lance and Bojan in the same lineup as they are often not complementary plays, but Stephenson has the ability to post respectable fantasy scores if given the minutes.

Indiana Pacers Offense

Points Per Game: 105.6 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.3 (8 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -0.3 ( of 14)

Matchup vs. Miami Heat

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.9 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.6 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.7 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.5 (26 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Darren Collison, Victor Oladipo, Lance Stephenson, Myles Turner, Thaddeus Young

Los Angeles Clippers at Toronto Raptors – 6:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Clippers							Toronto Raptors
			Vegas Total		225.5					Vegas Total		225.5
			Vegas Spread		8.0					Vegas Spread		-8.0
			Implied Team Total		108.8					Implied Team Total		116.8
			Pace Projection +/-		0.4					Pace Projection +/-		1.7
Projected Starters	Milos Teodosic	Austin Rivers	Wesley Johnson	Tobias Harris	DeAndre Jordan		Projected Starters	Kyle Lowry	DeMar DeRozan	OG Anunoby	Serge Ibaka	Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	9	3	5	7	19		DvP	15	29	27	21	24
DRPM Rat.	3	24	5	13	18		DRPM Rat.	18	24	3	18	8

Los Angeles Clippers

Notable Injuries

Danilo Gallinari (Out)

The Clippers are 2.5 games out of the playoff race, while the Raptors have a 4.5 game lead atop the Eastern Conference standings. The Raptors are a fantastic defensive team and grade out well against every position with the exception of center. Earlier this season when these two teams met, DeAndre Jordan played 32 minutes and finished with 14 points, 17 rebounds and 2 blocks. He’s priced as the second highest center on both FanDuel and DraftKings but I have no problem paying that price if you can afford it.

Tobias Harris saw a $100 price decrease on FanDuel but a $700 price decrease on DraftKings where he’s now $6,700. I’m not a huge fan of playing guys against Serge Ibaka but Harris is also coming off a game where he played 39 minutes and given how desperate the Clippers are to stay alive, I don’t mind that price on DraftKings knowing he’ll continue seeing a boatload of minutes.

I’m not a big Austin Rivers fan and I missed out on his 40+ DraftKings point explosion against the Bucks and Thunder. That was fine with me, because he’s only topped 33 DraftKings points in three of his last ten games. He’s a pass for me on this slate. I’d much rather pay up for Lou Williams, who finally went off for 55.5 DraftKings points last game. He’s going to be volatile and not do this every night, but he makes for a fantastic play. This game has the highest over/under on the main slate so getting exposure to it through Sweet Lou has a lot of merit.

Los Angeles Clippers Offense

Points Per Game: 109.5 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.8 (6 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -0.8 ( of 14)

Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.0 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.3 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.3 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.0 (13 of 30)

Elite Plays – DeAndre Jordan, Lou Williams

Secondary Plays – Tobias Harris

Toronto Raptors

Update 4:30pm EST – I just found out it’s a Kyle Lowry birthday game today. It doesn’t change my analysis of him but wanted to share this narrative with you. Also, C.J. Miles will be available.

Notable Injuries

C.J. Miles (Questionable)

The Raptors only play two games next week, so while there’s been talk of resting players, their schedule naturally helps them achieve that. Still, we need to be careful here and monitor the news in case someone gets ruled out to rest. C.J. Miles is officially questionable but what I’ve read makes it sound like he’s likely to play. If he does, that downgrades Fred VanVleet and Delon Wright a touch, since both have been seeing more usage and time in the second unit with Miles out the past few games.

Kyle Lowry is coming off a massive triple-double but that was against Brooklyn. The Clippers should at least offer a little more resistance as they are league-average against point guards, compared to the Nets who are a bottom-three team against that position. Lowry profiles more as a secondary option for me on a slate where I’d rather pay up for Russell Westbrook. The recency bias may inflate his ownership a bit as it’s tempting to chase that triple-double, but keep in mind it was just his third all season. In comparison, Westbrook has 23 triple-doubles this season.

DeMar DeRozan is a better pivot off Lowry given the recency bias, especially since DeRozan has an elite matchup. The Clipeprs rank 29th in DvP against shooting guards. If I’m paying up for a guard on the Raptors, I’d rather pay up for DeRozan over Lowry.

Serge Ibaka is fine in cash games if you want to take his floor, but I question his upside with the Raptors’ second unit so deep with Pascal Siakam and Jakob Poeltl lurking for minutes.

Jonas Valanciunas is always tournament viable given he’s a point-per-minute monster. It’s worth noting when these two teams met earlier, JoVal played 27 minutes and finished with 23 points and 15 rebounds. I don’t see him being very popular on this slate so he’s someone you should consider sprinkling in for tournaments in you have multiple teams. His minutes, however, are just too volatile to play in anything outside of tournaments.

Fred VanVleet remains my favorite play on their deep bench. He’s now posted back-to-back games of 30+ FanDuel points. Per the RotoGrinders Game Flow tracker here, you can see he played the final 20 minutes of the last game and played alongside Lowry and DeRozan. He continues to close games for the Raptors and is viable as a punt option. He’s arguably the finest closer in Toronto since Billy Koch.

Toronto Raptors Offense

Points Per Game: 112.5 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 116.8 (2 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 4.3 ( of 14)

Matchup vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.7 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.1 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.3 (6 of 30)

Elite Plays – DeMar DeRozan, Jonas Valanciunas (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka, Fred VanVleet (GPP)

Boston Celtics at Sacramento Kings – 6:00 PM ET

Boston Celtics							Sacramento Kings
			Vegas Total		200.5					Vegas Total		200.5
			Vegas Spread		-6.0					Vegas Spread		6.0
			Implied Team Total		103.3					Implied Team Total		97.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-2.3					Pace Projection +/-		-1.2
Projected Starters	Terry Rozier	Jaylen Brown	Jayson Tatum	Al Horford	Aron Baynes		Projected Starters	De’Aaron Fox	Bogdan Bogdanovic	Justin Jackson	Zach Randolph	Willie Cauley-Stein
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	18	15	13	22	28		DvP	2	6	11	4	4
DRPM Rat.	29	25	24	29	23		DRPM Rat.	4	2	4	1	1

Boston Celtics

Update 4:30pm EST – Marcus Morris is out with an ankle injury while Jaylen Brown is probable. I’ve removed Morris from the secondary plays.

Notable Injuries

Jaylen Brown (Attempting to play on Sunday), Kyrie Irving (Out), Marcus Smart (Out)

Kyrie Irving and Marcus Smart continue to be out, and rumor has it that Jaylen Brown is trying to target a comeback on Sunday against the Kings. He’s missed the past six games with a concussion so even if he does return, I’d be surprised if he resumed his normal workload. This is something we need to monitor.

A return of Jaylen Brown would impact Marcus Morris, who has been on a roll, and to some degree Jayson Tatum. Assuming Brown does play, both would be secondary plays for me on this slate.

Sacramento has struggled against bigs this season, so that at least puts Al Horford into play. I honestly would rather pay down and roster Greg Monroe over Horford at this rate. While Monroe is only averaging 20 minutes per game, he’s now posted 32 or more DraftKings points in four of his last five games. The Kings are a bottom five team against centers this season and I think Monroe offers sneaky tournament upside.

Terry Rozier offers a fine floor for cash games but at $7,000 on FanDuel and $7,400 on DraftKings, that’s a bit too rich for my blood.

Boston Celtics Offense

Points Per Game: 104.3 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.3 (10 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -1.1 ( of 14)

Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.8 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.7 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.2 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.3 (28 of 30)

Elite Plays – Greg Monroe (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Al Horford, Terry Rozier, Jayson Tatum

Sacramento Kings

Update 4:30pm EST – Zach Randolph has been ruled out, making Skal Labissiere, Willie Cauley-Stein and Kosta Koufos all tournament viable.

Notable Injuries

Zach Randolph (Questionable? Missed last game with an illness), Garrett Temple (Out)

Garrett Temple has been ruled out, which is noteworthy because it may give Frank Mason some additional playing time. Mason played well last game, finishing with 39.25 DraftKings points over 30 minutes. That game was against the Hawks and it’s noteworthy that Coach Joeger played Mason over starter De’Aaron Fox down the stretch. I don’t know if this was a one-time thing or if the Kings are trying to develop Mason further, but he’s dirt cheap across the industry. I’m not going to list him as an elite or secondary play given the question marks around his playing time, but if we begin to see him get 30 minutes regularly we need to start considering him for our player pools. And because there’s uncertainty on whether the minutes of De’Aaron Fox are in jeopardy, I have a hard time recommending him against a tough Celtics defense.

It’s a bit concerning Bogdan Bogdanovic only saw 18 minutes in his return from a hamstring injury. They are probably playing it safe with him but until I see him get his normal minutes back, I’m off him. Buddy Hield is instead a better play, mainly in tournaments. He’s averaging nearly a fantasy point per minute so he just needs playing time, which is never guaranteed with this Kings team.

Zach Randolph missed the last game with an illness and I haven’t seen any updates on his health. The good news is this is the first game of the main slate so we should have some kind of update before lock, but this is also the Kings we’re dealing with so all bets are off. If Randolph is in it downgrades my interest in Skal Labissiere, Willie Cauley-Stein and Kosta Koufos. If Randolph is out, all three are somewhat interesting if you need salary savers. Koufos exploded for 49.75 DraftKings points over 32 minutes last game, which feels like an outlier considering this was his first double-double in two weeks. You could certainly chase it in tournaments if Randolph is ruled out but there is a lot of risk in doing so.

Sacramento Kings Offense

Points Per Game: 99.5 (29 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 97.3 (14 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -2.3 ( of 14)

Matchup vs. Boston Celtics

Points Allowed Per Game: 100.4 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.2 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.7 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.4 (20 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Buddy Hield (GPP)

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