NBA Grind Down: Thursday, January 28th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Denver Nuggets at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Washington -6.5, 210 Over/Under
- Denver Nuggets Proj. Starters – Mudiay-Harris-Gallinari-Faried-Jokic
- Washington Wizards Proj. Starters – Wall-Temple-Porter-Hilario-Gortat
| Denver Nuggets | Washington Wizards | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 210.0 | | Vegas Total | 210.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.8 | Team Proj. | 108.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.60 | Team Pace | 99.70 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Emmanuel Mudiay | Gary Harris | Danilo Gallinari | Kenneth Faried | Nikola Jokic | Proj. Starter | John Wall | Garrett Temple | Otto Porter | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 25 | 30 | 7 | 12 | Opp. Season | 27 | 28 | 16 | 23 | 22 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 22 | 9 | 22 | 6 | 8 | Last 3 Weeks | 21 | 15 | 26 | 28 | 26 | |
Denver Nuggets
Record: 17-29 — Road: 8-14 — Last 10: 4-6
- Denver Nuggets Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 99.7 (20 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 101.8 (7 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 2.1
The Nuggets have lost six of their last ten games and have a spotty 8-14 record on the road this season. They draw a decent fantasy matchup tonight against the Wizards, but they are playing in the second half of a back-to-back. The Nuggets are projected to score 101.8 points, which is 2.1 points higher than their season average.
- Washington Wizards Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.1 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.3 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.1 (27 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 199.7 (19 of 30)
The Wizards were a top ten defense last season, but that seems like lightyears ago. This season, they are ranked 18th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Jameer Nelson is expected to return to the lineup tonight, which should cut into the minutes of Emmanuel Mudiay. Joffrey Lauvergne and Darrell Arthur are both questionable.
- Injury Watch:
Jameer Nelson (Probable)
Nikola Jokic (Probable)
Joffrey Lauvergne (Questionable)
Darrell Arthur (Questionable)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Danilo Gallinari
The biggest weakness in the Wizards’ defense this season has been on the wing. They are ranked 25th against shooting guards and dead last against small forwards. Gallinari is in a nice spot here, as his price has come down across the industry.
FD — $6,900 — SF
DK — $7,000 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.4 | Last Five Games: 22.6
Min/Game — Season: 34.4 | Last Five Games: 34.5
FP/Game — Season: 30.7 | Last Five Games: 29.9
Kenneth Faried
Faried is the ultimate GPP play. While I don’t ever trust him in cash games, last he gave us a glimpse of the type of upside that he provides. If Joffrey Lauvergne and/or Darrell Arthur are ruled out, Faried could see a boost in minutes.
FD — $6,100 — PF
DK — $5,700 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.7 | Last Five Games: 20.7
Min/Game — Season: 26.2 | Last Five Games: 24.3
FP/Game — Season: 26.8 | Last Five Games: 31.9
Washington Wizards
Record: 20-23 — Home: 10-14 — Last 10: 5-5
- Washington Wizards Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.6 (14 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 108.3 (2 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 6.7
The Wizards have won five of their last ten games, as they continue their climb back to .500 on the season. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Nuggets at home. The Wizards are projected to score 108.3 points. Not only is that the second highest team total on the matchup, but it is also 6.7 points higher than their season average.
- Denver Nuggets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.0 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 1.7 (10 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 206.3 (24 of 30)
The Nuggets have really struggled on the defensive end of the floor this season, ranking 23rd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Bradley Beal is expected to play tonight, which ends the run for Garrett Temple and Kelly Oubre as viable value plays.
- Injury Watch:
Brad Beal (Probable)
Kris Humphries (Questionable)
Elite Plays
John Wall
Even with Bradley Beal back, Wall is one of the top overall plays on the board tonight. He has an excellent track record at home, he is averaging 40.9 fantasy points over his last five games, and he is facing a Nuggets’ defense that is ranked 27th against point guards.
FD — $9,600 — PG
DK — $9,100 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.5 | Last Five Games: 25.0
Min/Game — Season: 35.7 | Last Five Games: 35.9
FP/Game — Season: 40.3 | Last Five Games: 40.9
Marcin Gortat
Gortat is a safe play at center tonight. Over his last five games, he is averaging 32 fantasy points in 34 minutes per contest. His price is still reasonable across the industry and he gets to face a Nuggets’ frontcourt that has really struggled to defend the paint this season.
FD — $7,000 — C
DK — $7,100 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.4 | Last Five Games: 13.1
Min/Game — Season: 31.7 | Last Five Games: 34.0
FP/Game — Season: 29.7 | Last Five Games: 32.0
Secondary Plays
Otto Porter
Porter’s value goes up when Bradley Beal is out, but he is still worth a look tonight in what should be an uptempo game against the Nuggets. Porter has been in good form recently, averaging 29.2 fantasy points over his last five games.
FD — $6,100 — SF
DK — $6,400 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.9 | Last Five Games: 14.3
Min/Game — Season: 32.1 | Last Five Games: 32.7
FP/Game — Season: 25.1 | Last Five Games: 29.2
Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Indiana -3, 201.5 Over/Under
- Atlanta Hawks Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Bazemore-Millsap-Horford
- Indiana Pacers Proj. Starters – Hill-Ellis-George-Allen-Mahinmi
| Atlanta Hawks | Indiana Pacers | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 201.5 | | Vegas Total | 201.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.3 | Team Proj. | 102.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.10 | Team Pace | 99.60 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | Kent Bazemore | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | Proj. Starter | George Hill | Monta Ellis | Paul George | Lavoy Allen | Ian Mahinmi | |
| Opp. Season | 6 | 24 | 3 | 15 | 21 | Opp. Season | 10 | 21 | 12 | 11 | 27 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 25 | 19 | 4 | 11 | 23 | Last 3 Weeks | 7 | 16 | 11 | 16 | 24 | |
Atlanta Hawks
Record: 27-20 — Road: 12-12 — Last 10: 5-5
- Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.1 (10 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 99.3 (9 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -2.8
The Hawks have lost five of their last ten games, including a game against the Clippers last night. They have a quick turnaround tonight, as they head to Indiana to take on the Pacers. This is expected to be a close game throughout, but the total isn’t as high as you might expect. The Hawks are only projected to score 99.3 points, which is 2.8 points lower than their season average.
- Indiana Pacers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.0 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.5 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.0 (23 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 194.7 (10 of 30)
The Pacers play at such a fast pace that they aren’t known as an elite defensive team. However, they are ranked tenth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. While this game should be competitive, this isn’t my favorite matchup to target.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Paul Millsap
Millsap has been on fire over his last five games, averaging 42.2 fantasy points per contest. He draws a decent matchup against the Pacers, who have been average against power forwards this season. We don’t need to be concerned with the back-to-back, as Millsap’s splits are nearly identical regardless of the days of rest.
FD — $8,900 — PF
DK — $8,300 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.4 | Last Five Games: 19.4
Min/Game — Season: 32.7 | Last Five Games: 32.3
FP/Game — Season: 38.5 | Last Five Games: 42.2
Kent Bazemore
Bazemore has been very productive this season, both as a starter and off the bench. The only knock on him is that he doesn’t have the same minute upside that some of the other players do. He basically sees 28-30 minutes each night.
FD — $5,200 — SG
DK — $5,600 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.6 | Last Five Games: 19.8
Min/Game — Season: 28.2 | Last Five Games: 29.2
FP/Game — Season: 23.7 | Last Five Games: 23.8
Indiana Pacers
Record: 23-22 — Home: 13-7 — Last 10: 3-7
- Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.3 (9 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 102.3 (6 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 0.0
The Pacers have not been playing their best basketball recently, losing seven of their last ten games. They are now only a single game above .500, but they have played well at home this season. The Pacers are listed as 3-point favorites tonight against the Hawks. Indiana is projected to score 102.3 points, which is identical to their season average.
- Atlanta Hawks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.0 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.9 (30 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 199.3 (17 of 30)
The Hawks have been much better defensively over the last month of play. They are now ranked seventh in points allowed per game and fifth in defensive efficiency. The Hawks are playing on the road in the second half of a back-to-back though. We should consider this a mediocre matchup for the Pacers.
- Injury Watch:
Rodney Stuckey (Out)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Paul George
George has been playing through a leg injury, but he hasn’t let it impact his production. Over his last five games, he is averaging 37.3 fantasy points. He draws a decent matchup tonight against the Hawks at home. While I don’t consider him a must play, he is a borderline elite play.
FD — $8,900 — SF
DK — $8,900 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.9 | Last Five Games: 23.2
Min/Game — Season: 35.5 | Last Five Games: 34.5
FP/Game — Season: 39.3 | Last Five Games: 37.3
Myles Turner
The entire DFS community slumped down in their desks the other night when it was announced that Ian Mahinmi would be back in the lineup. Rather than seeing 30 minutes, Turner will now see around 20-25 per game. This makes him more of a secondary play tonight.
FD — $5,000 — PF
DK — $4,600 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.7 | Last Five Games: 21.6
Min/Game — Season: 16.8 | Last Five Games: 27.4
FP/Game — Season: 16.9 | Last Five Games: 33.6
Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Sacramento -2, 216.5 Over/Under
- Sacramento Kings Proj. Starters – Rondo-McLemore-Casspi-Cousins-Cauley-Stein
- New Orleans Pelicans Proj. Starters – Cole-Evans-Gee-Anderson-Asik
| Sacramento Kings | New Orleans Pelicans | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 216.5 | | Vegas Total | 216.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 109.3 | Team Proj. | 107.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 101.80 | Team Pace | 98.30 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Rajon Rondo | Ben McLemore | Omri Casspi | DeMarcus Cousins | Willie Cauley-Stein | Proj. Starter | Norris Cole | Tyreke Evans | Alonzo Gee | Ryan Anderson | Omer Asik | |
| Opp. Season | 14 | 26 | 10 | 13 | 29 | Opp. Season | 24 | 30 | 19 | 29 | 26 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 5 | 13 | 15 | 1 | 22 | Last 3 Weeks | 15 | 27 | 3 | 25 | 10 | |
Sacramento Kings
Record: 20-25 — Road: 8-13 — Last 10: 6-4
- Sacramento Kings Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 106.4 (3 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 109.3 (1 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 2.8
Of the six games on the schedule tonight, this one has by far the most fantasy appeal. The Kings have been playing some solid basketball recently, winning six of their last ten games. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Pelicans in New Orleans. The Kings are projected to score 109.3 points, which is the highest team total on the board.
- New Orleans Pelicans Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.1 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.4 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.3 (24 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 202.4 (20 of 30)
The Pelicans have struggled defensively all season and having Anthony Davis out of their lineup is only going to complicate matters. With the highest team total on the board in a small six game slate, it could be a nice night to load up on the Kings. Rudy Gay will miss tonight’s game, as he is still dealing with an injury to his eye.
- Injury Watch:
Rudy Gay (Out)
Elite Plays
DeMarcus Cousins
Cousins looked a little tired the other night against the Blazers. While he did hurt a lot of lineups, we should feel good about jumping right back on the bandwagon tonight. He draws a fantastic matchup against the Pelicans (who he has torched over the last two seasons). He is the premier play at any position.
FD — $11,200 — C
DK — $11,200 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 29.4 | Last Five Games: 32.9
Min/Game — Season: 34.0 | Last Five Games: 38.1
FP/Game — Season: 46.6 | Last Five Games: 56.5
Omri Casspi
Casspi hasn’t been all that productive recently, averaging only 21.6 fantasy points per contest. However, with Rudy Gay out, Casspi will draw the start at power forward and likely see minutes in the low to mid-30s.
FD — $5,200 — SF
DK — $5,800 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.5 | Last Five Games: 13.0
Min/Game — Season: 29.9 | Last Five Games: 30.3
FP/Game — Season: 22.9 | Last Five Games: 21.6
Willie Cauley-Stein
WCS is seeing elite minutes and he has been crushing value recently. Over his last five games, he is averaging 28.8 fantasy points in 32.3 minutes per contest. With Rudy Gay out, that should solidify his minutes tonight against a Pelicans’ frontcourt that will likely be without Anthony Davis.
FD — $4,500 — PF
DK — $5,100 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 9.5 | Last Five Games: 10.4
Min/Game — Season: 20.0 | Last Five Games: 32.3
FP/Game — Season: 16.4 | Last Five Games: 28.8
Secondary Plays
Rajon Rondo
I have no qualms with Rondo being considered an elite play tonight. However, in order of my favorite Kings’ players to target, he ranks fourth. For that reason, I will list him as a secondary play. He has been in good form recently and he draws a decent matchup against the Pelicans.
FD — $8,500 — PG
DK — $8,400 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.2 | Last Five Games: 17.2
Min/Game — Season: 35.1 | Last Five Games: 35.6
FP/Game — Season: 37.1 | Last Five Games: 39.5
Marco Belinelli
Anytime Rudy Gay is out, that gives a boost to Belinelli. He is averaging nearly three more fantasy points per game when Gay is out of the lineup. Belinelli is a decent punt play that should see around 25 minutes tonight.
FD — $3,700 — SG
DK — $4,000 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.8 | Last Five Games: 18.6
Min/Game — Season: 25.4 | Last Five Games: 20.7
FP/Game — Season: 15.6 | Last Five Games: 12.4
New Orleans Pelicans
Record: 16-28 — Home: 11-10 — Last 10: 5-5
- New Orleans Pelicans Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.5 (8 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 107.3 (3 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 4.8
The Pelicans have won five of their last ten games. It will be a season of what-ifs, as they are likely too far behind to make a real push at the playoffs. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Kings in what should be the highest scoring game on the board. The Pelicans are projected to score 107.3 points, which is 4.8 points higher than their season average.
- Sacramento Kings Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.8 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.2 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 1.3 (11 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 211.0 (29 of 30)
The Kings have been one of the top teams to target players against this season. Not only do they play at one of the fastest paces of any team in the NBA, but they are also ranked 30th in points allowed per game and 29th in fantasy points allowed per game. Anthony Davis is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game. If he is ruled out, it gives a boost to all five starters. Tyreke Evans is listed as questionable. If he is also out, Jrue Holiday and Norris Cole would both be solid fantasy options.
- Injury Watch:
Eric Gordon (Out)
Anthony Davis (Doubtful)
Tyreke Evans (Questionable)
Elite Plays
Ryan Anderson
As long as Anthony Davis is ruled out, Anderson is one of the top plays on the board tonight. He should step into the starting lineup and immediately see 35+ minutes of playing time. He is a high volume scorer that could be the go-to player in this Pelicans’ offense tonight.
FD — $5,700 — PF
DK — $6,300 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.6 | Last Five Games: 19.4
Min/Game — Season: 31.5 | Last Five Games: 31.1
FP/Game — Season: 26.1 | Last Five Games: 23.0
Jrue Holiday
Holiday is still playing less than 30 minutes per game, but if Tyreke Evans is out, the Pelicans may have to stretch him a bit more tonight. He has been in terrific form recently and the Kings are one of the worst teams at defending point guards.
FD — $6,800 — PG
DK — $6,700 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.0 | Last Five Games: 25.4
Min/Game — Season: 25.3 | Last Five Games: 27.9
FP/Game — Season: 25.5 | Last Five Games: 35.4
Norris Cole
Cole has played well in his spot starts this season. With Eric Gordon out and Tyreke Evans questionable, Cole is one of my favorite value plays on the board. If Evans is ruled out, Cole could see 35+ minutes of action.
FD — $4,300 — PG
DK — $5,100 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.4 | Last Five Games: 16.0
Min/Game — Season: 24.6 | Last Five Games: 29.2
FP/Game — Season: 16.4 | Last Five Games: 20.0
Secondary Plays
Omer Asik
We should temper our expectations with Asik, but with Anthony Davis out, he should see a nice boost in minutes. Asik has been productive in limited minutes this season and they may need him to play 25+ minutes tonight against DeMarcus Cousins.
FD — $3,500 — C
DK — $3,200 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 7.6 | Last Five Games: 10.8
Min/Game — Season: 16.6 | Last Five Games: 15.2
FP/Game — Season: 11.1 | Last Five Games: 13.7
New York Knicks at Toronto Raptors – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Toronto -9.5, 201.5 Over/Under
- New York Knicks Proj. Starters – Calderon-Afflalo-Thomas-Porzingis-Lopez
- Toronto Raptors Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Johnson-Scola-Valanciunas
| New York Knicks | Toronto Raptors | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 201.5 | | Vegas Total | 201.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.5 | Vegas Sprd | -9.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.0 | Team Proj. | 105.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.10 | Team Pace | 95.70 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Jose Calderon | Arron Afflalo | Lance Thomas | Kristaps Porzingis | Robin Lopez | Proj. Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | James Johnson | Luis Scola | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 2 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 14 | Opp. Season | 13 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 17 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 14 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 14 | Last 3 Weeks | 29 | 2 | 17 | 12 | 18 | |
New York Knicks
Record: 22-25 — Road: 9-15 — Last 10: 4-6
- New York Knicks Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 99.6 (22 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 96.0 (11 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -3.6
The Knicks have lost six of their last ten games and are now 22-25 on the season. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Raptors in Toronto. The Knicks are only projected to score 96 points, which is the second lowest team total on the board and 3.6 points lower than their season average.
- Toronto Raptors Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.6 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.7 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.8 (7 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 188.6 (5 of 30)
The Raptors have quietly worked their way up to being a top five defensive team this season. They are ranked ninth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Carmelo Anthony has been ruled out of tonight’s game, which gives a sizable boost to Arron Afflalo, Kristaps Porzingis, Lance Thomas, and Derrick Williams.
- Injury Watch:
Carmelo Anthony (Out)
Cleanthony Early (Out)
Jose Calderon (Questionable)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Kristaps Porzingis
Porzingis always sees a nice fantasy boost when Carmelo Anthony is out. In the five games that Anthony has missed, Porzingis has averaged 17.4 points, 9 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 3.0 blocks/steals. He is a borderline elite play tonight, but I am a little worried about a blowout here.
FD — $6,900 — PF
DK — $7,300 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.9 | Last Five Games: 18.5
Min/Game — Season: 28.2 | Last Five Games: 30.2
FP/Game — Season: 29.1 | Last Five Games: 29.2
Derrick Williams
Williams has also seen a major spike in production with Carmelo Anthony out. In those five games that Anthony has missed, Williams has averaged 17.2 points, 5.6 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and 1.4 blocks/steals.
FD — $4,900 — PF
DK — $5,500 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.0 | Last Five Games: 20.7
Min/Game — Season: 17.2 | Last Five Games: 28.5
FP/Game — Season: 15.5 | Last Five Games: 27.0
Lance Thomas
If you need a value play at small forward, look no further than Thomas. He should see minutes in the low to mid-30s tonight with Carmelo Anthony out. He is coming off of a strong outing against the Thunder, scoring 25 fantasy points in 41 minutes.
FD — $3,800 — SF
DK — $4,000 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.6 | Last Five Games: 11.4
Min/Game — Season: 21.8 | Last Five Games: 36.1
FP/Game — Season: 12.9 | Last Five Games: 22.6
Toronto Raptors
Record: 30-15 — Home: 16-6 — Last 10: 9-1
- Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.3 (17 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 105.5 (4 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 4.2
The Raptors are one of the hottest teams in the NBA right now. They have won nine of their last ten games and are now 30-15 on the season. They draw a decent matchup tonight against the Knicks at home. The Raptors are projected to score 105.5 points, which is the fourth highest team total on the board and 4.2 points higher than their season average.
- New York Knicks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.2 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.4 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (15 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 195.5 (11 of 30)
The Knicks have been average at best on the defensive end of the floor. On the season, they are ranked between 11th and 19th in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The main injury to monitor here is Kyle Lowry. He is listed as questionable with a wrist injury. Lowry typically plays through nagging injuries, but if he is unable to play, Cory Joseph would become a top value play.
- Injury Watch:
Kyle Lowry (Questionable)
DeMarre Carroll (Out)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Kyle Lowry
Over the last three weeks, the Knicks have allowed the second most fantasy points to point guards. While I like the matchup, point guard is a deep position tonight and there are some excellent value plays at the position. For that reason, Lowry is more of a secondary play tonight.
FD — $8,800 — PG
DK — $8,600 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.5 | Last Five Games: 18.6
Min/Game — Season: 36.5 | Last Five Games: 37.4
FP/Game — Season: 38.9 | Last Five Games: 36.8
DeMar DeRozan
DeRozan has played well over his last five games, averaging 38.1 fantasy points per contest. However, he seems a little expensive and with the potential for this game to turn into a blowout, I see him as more of a secondary play.
FD — $8,200 — SG
DK — $8,000 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.2 | Last Five Games: 29.8
Min/Game — Season: 36.5 | Last Five Games: 34.9
FP/Game — Season: 34.9 | Last Five Games: 38.1
Milwaukee Bucks at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Memphis -5, 195 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Bucks Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Parker-Monroe
- Memphis Grizzlies Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Allen-Randolph-Gasol
| Milwaukee Bucks | Memphis Grizzlies | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 195.0 | | Vegas Total | 195.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.0 | Team Proj. | 100.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.10 | Team Pace | 95.40 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Jabari Parker | Greg Monroe | Proj. Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Tony Allen | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 9 | 4 | 21 | 12 | 3 | Opp. Season | 8 | 20 | 25 | 24 | 15 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 10 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 4 | Last 3 Weeks | 4 | 23 | 12 | 23 | 17 | |
Milwaukee Bucks
Record: 20-27 — Road: 7-20 — Last 10: 6-4
- Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 98.3 (24 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 95.0 (12 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -3.3
The Bucks have won six of their last ten games and are looking more and more like the team we expected them to be at the start of the season. They draw a tough test tonight against the Grizzlies in Memphis. The Bucks are only projected to score 95 points, which is the lowest team total on the board.
- Memphis Grizzlies Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.0 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.9 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.8 (21 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 191.6 (6 of 30)
The Grizzlies have really improved on the defensive end of the floor. They are now ranked sixth in both points allowed per game and fantasy points allowed per game this season. With Jason Kidd back on the bench and the lowest team total on the board, the Bucks are better tournament plays than cash game plays tonight.
- Injury Watch:
O.J. Mayo (Questionable)
John Henson (Out)
Greivis Vasquez (Out)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
NONE
Memphis Grizzlies
Record: 26-20 — Home: 17-7 — Last 10: 7-3
- Memphis Grizzlies Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 96.8 (26 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 100.0 (8 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 3.2
The Grizzlies have won seven of their last ten games and have an impressive 17-7 record at home. They are 5-point favorites tonight, as they host the visiting Bucks. The Grizzlies are projected to score 100 points here. While that may not seem like a high team total, it is actually 3.2 points higher than their season average.
- Milwaukee Bucks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.0 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.8 (21 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 203.5 (22 of 30)
The Bucks have been one of the best team to target players against this season. They are ranked 20th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The only position that they have defended well is point guard. They are ranked 15th or worse against the other four positions.
- Injury Watch:
Brandan Wright (Out)
Jordan Adams (Out)
Elite Plays
Marc Gasol
Gasol has been terrific over his last five games, averaging 40.7 fantasy points per contest. His minutes and usage rate are both up during that stretch, which is a lethal combination for fantasy production. Even at his elevated price point, he is an elite play tonight against the Bucks.
FD — $8,000 — C
DK — $7,500 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.2 | Last Five Games: 23.8
Min/Game — Season: 35.2 | Last Five Games: 37.8
FP/Game — Season: 33.1 | Last Five Games: 40.7
Secondary Plays
Tony Allen
Allen typically doesn’t make the Grind Down unless the Grizzlies are playing short-handed, but his minutes and production are both up. Over his last five games, he is averaging 22.5 fantasy points in 32.7 minutes per contest. He is far from a must play, but is my favorite wing player on the Grizzlies tonight.
FD — $4,600 — SG
DK — $5,000 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 12.6 | Last Five Games: 10.5
Min/Game — Season: 24.5 | Last Five Games: 32.7
FP/Game — Season: 16.5 | Last Five Games: 22.5
