NBA Grind Down: Thursday, March 22nd

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ


Philadelphia 76ers at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Philadelphia 76ers Orlando Magic
Article Image Vegas Total 213.5 Article Image Vegas Total 213.5
Vegas Spread -7.5 Vegas Spread 7.5
Implied Team Total 110.5 Implied Team Total 103.0
Pace Projection +/- 0.8 Pace Projection +/- 1.8
Projected Starters Ben Simmons J.J. Redick Robert Covington Dario Saric Joel Embiid Projected Starters D.J. Augustin Arron Afflalo Mario Hezonja Aaron Gordon Nikola Vucevic
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 29 26 18 25 20 DvP 13 18 20 14 12
DRPM Rat. 21 20 29 21 10 DRPM Rat. 2 26 1 26 2

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, but they’ve been playing so well that their starters haven’t needed to log a ton of minutes. After winning seven of their last ten games, they have vaulted up the standings in the Eastern Conference and are now in fourth place. Tonight’s matchup against the Magic is a favorable one, as Orlando is ranked 23rd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Sixers have an implied total of 110.5 points, which is the fifth highest of the slate.

The problem with the Sixers is twofold — they have a deep rotation and their superstars are priced up across the industry. This is certainly a triple-double type of game for Ben Simmons, but Philadelphia may not need him to play a full complement of minutes. J.J. Redick offers nice value on FanDuel ($4,700), but I slightly prefer Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bogdan Bogdanovic at similar price points. Robert Covington is a low usage player that relies on threes, blocks, and steals. This feels like the perfect matchup for one of his 40+ fantasy point outings and given the fact that he will be low owned, I will be loading up on Covington in tournaments.

Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilyasova are intriguing value plays, but as we will get to shortly, they aren’t quite as good as some of the other values available tonight. The good news is that Belinelli and Ilyasova will be low owned and could see some garbage time if this game gets out of hand. Dario Saric hasn’t been in great form recently and his price hasn’t come down enough to warrant consideration, even in this matchup. Joel Embiid is one of the most intriguing plays on the board. Most of the ownership at center will gravitate to the value range, which will leave Embiid at potentially sub-15% ownership. He certainly has upside against the Magic, who are ranked 26th in efficiency against centers this season.

Notable Injuries

Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (Out)

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game: 108.1 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.5 (5 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 2.4 (6 of 12)

Matchup vs. Orlando Magic

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.1 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.5 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.3 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.3 (10 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Ben Simmons $10,400 $9,100 $17,500 41.7 4.3 34.6 -2.9 1.21 22.9% 29 29 21
J.J. Redick $4,700 $5,200 $10,600 24.9 -2.7 31.0 -4.8 0.80 19.5% 24 26 20
Robert Covington $6,000 $5,600 $11,300 27.4 -1.2 32.1 -3.1 0.85 15.0% 27 18 29
Dario Saric $5,900 $6,000 $11,600 28.1 -4.8 30.5 -2.8 0.92 18.4% 18 25 21
Joel Embiid $11,000 $9,900 $18,000 45.1 4.2 31.3 -1.7 1.44 28.3% 26 20 10
Marco Belinelli $3,900 $3,600 $6,800 17.8 -0.5 23.8 3.4 0.75 19.0% N/A N/A N/A
Ersan Ilyasova $3,800 $3,900 $8,100 21.3 -4.8 24.9 -3.0 0.86 15.9% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Robert Covington (GPP), Joel Embiid (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Joel Embiid (Cash), Ben Simmons, J.J. Redick (FD), Marco Belinelli, Ersan Ilyasova


Orlando Magic

The Magic own their first-round pick in the upcoming draft, so they have no incentive to win the rest of the season. They are currently tied with the Hawks for the third-worst record in the NBA. They will be short-handed again tonight, as they host a Sixers’ team that is ranked fifth in defensive efficiency and first in rebounding differential this season. Even though the Magic are playing at home, they have the fourth lowest implied total (103 points) on the board.

Evan Fournier, Jonathan Isaac, Jonathon Simmons, and Terrence Ross have all been ruled out of tonight’s game. D.J. Augustin and Shelvin Mack should both play big minutes and should share the floor at times, given the lack of depth at guard for Orlando. I don’t see either as elite plays against the Sixers, but Augustin has some tournament appeal on DraftKings ($5,000) and Mack has some tournament appeal on FanDuel ($3,900). Mario Hezonja should step into the starting lineup and potentially crack 30 minutes of playing time. He’s one of the top values at small forward, but it’s worth noting that he will draw a matchup against Robert Covington, who is arguably the best on-ball defender in basketball.

This is a strange spot for the frontcourt. While the Magic need Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic to play big minutes, they may not want to play them big minutes. I have a hard time paying a premium for players on teams with nothing to play for. It doesn’t help that the Sixers are ranked tenth in efficiency against power forwards and fifth in efficiency against centers this season. If you feel good about Gordon and Vucevic, you can certainly fire them up in tournaments, but I wouldn’t recommend targeting them in a cash game setting.

Notable Injuries

Evan Fournier (Out)
Jonathan Isaac (Out)
Jonathon Simmons (Out)
Terrence Ross (Out)

Orlando Magic Offense

Points Per Game: 104.4 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.0 (9 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -1.4 (10 of 12)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.6 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.2 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.9 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.3 (5 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
D.J. Augustin $5,500 $5,000 $9,800 18.9 8.0 23.1 8.0 0.82 18.2% 2 13 2
Arron Afflalo $3,500 $3,400 $6,700 6.0 1.7 12.9 6.7 0.46 11.5% 22 18 26
Mario Hezonja $4,500 $4,700 $9,100 17.9 0.8 20.6 4.3 0.87 17.5% 9 20 1
Aaron Gordon $7,500 $7,300 $13,300 35.0 -1.3 33.7 0.2 1.04 21.5% 10 14 26
Nikola Vucevic $8,800 $8,400 $15,700 37.2 -3.0 30.2 -0.7 1.23 22.9% 5 12 2
Shelvin Mack $3,900 $4,200 $8,700 16.0 6.8 19.1 5.1 0.84 17.5% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Mario Hezonja

Secondary Plays – D.J. Augustin (DK), Shelvin Mack (FD), Aaron Gordon (GPP), Nikola Vucevic (GPP)


Memphis Grizzlies at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET

Memphis Grizzlies Charlotte Hornets
Article Image Vegas Total 213.0 Article Image Vegas Total 213.0
Vegas Spread 10.0 Vegas Spread -10.0
Implied Team Total 101.5 Implied Team Total 111.5
Pace Projection +/- 0.9 Pace Projection +/- -2.6
Projected Starters Tyreke Evans Dillon Brooks Jarell Martin JaMychal Green Deyonta Davis Projected Starters Kemba Walker Jeremy Lamb Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Willy Hernangomez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 19 15 25 16 17 DvP 18 25 15 13 1
DRPM Rat. 21 12 10 15 17 DRPM Rat. 5 18 24 28 28

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies are currently tied for the worst record in the NBA. They own their first-round pick in the upcoming draft, so they have no incentive to win at this point. They come into tonight’s game as ten-point underdogs against the Hornets, who are ranked 20th in points allowed per game and 18th defensive efficiency. The Grizzlies have an implied total of 101.5 points, which is the third lowest of the slate, but 2.5 points above their season average.

Marc Gasol and Chandler Parsons have been ruled out of tonight’s game, which opens up minutes in the rotation and usage in the offense. Tyreke Evans is one of the most polarizing players in the slate. He burned a lot of bridges on Monday night and sat out the front end of the back-to-back last night. His ownership will be deflated, even though he draws an exploitable matchup against the Hornets, who will be without their rim protector. If he plays a full complement of minutes, Evans could easily exceed value at this price point.

Dillon Brooks, Jarell Martin, and JaMychal Green could all play 30+ minutes tonight. While they don’t stand out as elite plays at their respective positions, they are certainly on my radar for tournaments. Of the three, I have the most interest in Martin, who is only $4,700 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Deyonta Davis is one of the best value plays available tonight. He will likely enter the starting lineup and is priced under $4,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The potential downside with Davis is that the Hornets could be without two of their three centers, so there is a chance both teams play more small ball lineups.

Notable Injuries

Marc Gasol (Out)
Chandler Parsons (Out)
Andrew Harrison (Questionable)
Ivan Rabb (Questionable)

Memphis Grizzlies Offense

Points Per Game: 99.0 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.5 (10 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 2.5 (5 of 12)

Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.9 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.1 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.1 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.4 (9 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Tyreke Evans $8,000 $7,900 $14,400 35.4 8.4 31.1 4.2 1.14 27.5% 19 19 21
Dillon Brooks $4,800 $4,600 $9,000 17.8 5.0 28.8 1.4 0.62 15.4% 21 15 12
Jarell Martin $4,700 $4,700 $9,100 16.7 5.5 21.9 4.6 0.76 14.4% 26 25 10
JaMychal Green $6,500 $5,800 $11,700 24.6 5.8 27.9 2.8 0.88 16.0% 23 16 15
Deyonta Davis $3,800 $3,300 $6,200 12.6 5.9 13.9 3.5 0.91 13.5% 13 17 17
Mario Chalmers $3,500 $3,300 $6,400 17.7 -6.3 22.3 -8.7 0.80 17.9% N/A N/A N/A
Wayne Selden $4,000 $3,400 12.9 6.1 18.8 1.6 0.69 19.1% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Deyonta Davis, Tyreke Evans (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Tyreke Evans (Cash), Jarell Martin, JaMychal Green


Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets picked up a win last night in Brooklyn, but are still 6.5 games behind the Bucks for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. They will likely fall short, but should be able to inch closer tonight. They are double-digit favorites against the Grizzlies, who are no longer an elite defensive team. Despite playing without Dwight Howard, the Hornets come into the game with an implied total of 111.5 points, which is the fourth highest on the board and 4.5 points above their season average.

If we run CourtIQ with Nicolas Batum and Howard off the floor, we see that the four biggest FP/min bumps go to Kemba Walker, Jeremy Lamb, Frank Kaminsky, and Marvin Williams. They just so happen to be my four favorite targets from Charlotte tonight. Walker has an elite usage rate, a good track record at home throughout his career, and should log minutes in the high 30s. Lamb will draw another start at shooting guard and push for minutes in the low 30s. Lamb is a little too expensive on FanDuel, but an elite play on DraftKings ($5,700).

Williams isn’t a high per-minute producer, but he could easily push for 30+ minutes in an exploitable matchup against the Grizzlies. Kaminsky offers more upside, especially if he ends up drawing the start at center. This is one of those rare occasions when it makes sense to play four or five players from the same team in the same lineup. Willy Hernangomez offers fantasy appeal as well, but only if Cody Zeller (questionable) is ruled out. At the moment, I prefer Deyonta Davis over Hernangomez, but that could chance if Hernangomez draws the start at center.

Notable Injuries

Dwight Howard (Out)
Nicolas Batum (Doubtful)
Cody Zeller (Questionable)

Charlotte Hornets Offense

Points Per Game: 107.0 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.5 (4 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 4.5 (3 of 12)

Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.2 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.5 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.8 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.9 (30 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Kemba Walker $8,600 $8,200 $14,300 37.4 -0.1 34.8 0.3 1.08 26.7% 20 18 5
Jeremy Lamb $6,600 $5,700 $11,900 23.8 0.8 24.5 1.6 0.97 21.5% 14 25 18
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $3,600 $3,800 $7,400 18.8 -3.4 25.3 -2.6 0.74 14.7% 8 15 24
Marvin Williams $4,100 $4,000 $7,800 18.9 -3.5 25.7 -2.0 0.74 13.1% 22 13 28
Willy Hernangomez $4,000 $3,400 $6,400 8.9 7.2 8.4 3.8 1.06 18.1% 1 1 28
Frank Kaminsky $4,200 $4,100 $7,800 19.1 -2.5 23.2 0.1 0.82 19.1% N/A N/A N/A
Malik Monk $4,300 $3,600 $6,800 8.8 6.0 12.2 4.6 0.72 21.4% N/A N/A N/A
Cody Zeller $3,600 $3,400 $6,500 16.9 19.0 0.89 13.4% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Kemba Walker, Frank Kaminsky, Marvin Williams, Jeremy Lamb (DK)

Secondary Plays – Jeremy Lamb (FD), Willy Hernangomez (bump to an elite play on DK if he starts)


Detroit Pistons at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET

Detroit Pistons Houston Rockets
Article Image Vegas Total 214.5 Article Image Vegas Total 214.5
Vegas Spread 12.0 Vegas Spread -12.0
Implied Team Total 101.3 Implied Team Total 113.3
Pace Projection +/- 0.3 Pace Projection +/- -1.1
Projected Starters Reggie Jackson Reggie Bullock Stanley Johnson Blake Griffin Andre Drummond Projected Starters Chris Paul James Harden Trevor Ariza P.J. Tucker Clint Capela
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 7 16 10 2 23 DvP 11 8 27 17 9
DRPM Rat. 1 14 11 10 3 DRPM Rat. 19 24 8 25 13

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons are playing their third game in four nights, but it’s not the second half of a back-to-back. They draw a tough matchup against the Rockets, who have been blowing teams out left and right this season. To make matters worse, Houston is ranked 11th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Pistons have an implied total of 101.3 points, which is the second lowest on the board.

Reggie Jackson returned from injury and logged 15 minutes Monday night against the Suns. He has been cleared to play more minutes, although we don’t know the exact number. I don’t love targeting players that I project to play less than 20 minutes, but Jackson is priced at the bare-minimum on FanDuel if you are looking for a punt at point guard. Given the fact that the Pistons are double-digit underdogs on the road, I have little interest in Blake Griffin or Andre Drummond. They have been inconsistent over the last few weeks and would be the first two players to ride the pine if this game turns into a blowout. If you think Detroit can keep this game close, I don’t hate Griffin and Drummond as tournament plays.

Notable Injuries

None

Detroit Pistons Offense

Points Per Game: 102.9 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.3 (11 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -1.7 (11 of 12)

Matchup vs. Houston Rockets

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.8 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.6 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.2 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.8 (14 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Reggie Jackson $3,500 $4,500 $8,800 25.4 -15.4 26.7 -11.3 0.95 25.8% 6 7 1
Reggie Bullock $5,000 $4,700 $9,000 18.0 3.3 27.4 2.2 0.66 14.3% 15 16 14
Stanley Johnson $4,500 $4,200 $8,200 18.6 1.1 27.4 -3.9 0.68 14.9% 20 10 11
Blake Griffin $9,100 $8,600 $16,100 39.3 0.3 34.1 0.0 1.15 27.6% 3 2 10
Andre Drummond $9,900 $8,700 $15,800 45.3 -5.2 33.1 -2.9 1.37 18.7% 17 23 3
Luke Kennard $4,400 $4,000 $7,600 13.3 7.0 18.9 8.0 0.70 15.5% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Reggie Jackson (FD), Blake Griffin (GPP), Andre Drummond (GPP)


Houston Rockets

The Rockets seem unstoppable at this point in the season. They should easily be able to lock up home-court advantage throughout the playoffs and I suspect that we see them rest some players over the next few weeks. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Pistons, but when it comes to the Rockets, the matchup is irrelevant. Houston has an implied total of 113.3 points, which is the third highest of the slate and nearly identical to their season average.

Chris Paul is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. The fact that it’s a hamstring injury leads me to believe that he’s more likely to sit than play. Hopefully, we’ll have an update on his availability before lineups lock. If Paul is active, I will be avoiding him in all formats. If Paul is out, James Harden and Eric Gordon would both become elite plays in all formats. You can make a case for Harden even if Paul is active, as there is enough value in the slate to easily fit Harden into our lineups.

Trevor Ariza is one of those players that I’m usually fine ending up with, but not one that I go out of my way to target. He is a low usage player that can have big games and poor games. His price is reasonable, but I slightly prefer some of the other options at small forward. I never seem to be on the right side of Clint Capela. Given the fact that he’ll be facing Andre Drummond, one would expect him to play 30+ minutes, but we’ve said that in similar matchups in the past. Given the value at center, I would only recommend playing Capela in tournaments.

Notable Injuries

Chris Paul (Questionable)

Houston Rockets Offense

Points Per Game: 113.7 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.3 (3 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -0.5 (9 of 12)

Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.1 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.4 (20 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Chris Paul $8,500 $8,100 $15,400 41.2 -4.7 31.9 -1.1 1.29 25.7% 23 11 19
James Harden $11,800 $11,600 $21,500 53.7 -1.0 35.6 -1.5 1.51 33.8% 3 8 24
Trevor Ariza $4,800 $4,900 $9,600 23.9 -2.8 34.4 -3.0 0.69 13.0% 22 27 8
P.J. Tucker $3,600 $3,700 $7,200 16.8 2.5 27.7 -0.9 0.60 8.9% 15 17 25
Clint Capela $7,400 $6,800 $12,700 34.6 0.1 27.4 2.0 1.26 16.8% 16 9 13
Eric Gordon $4,700 $6,100 $11,900 25.4 -8.8 31.3 -3.1 0.81 21.8% N/A N/A N/A
Luc Mbah a Moute $3,800 $3,200 $6,500 16.1 -0.6 26.4 -2.6 0.61 10.6% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – James Harden, Eric Gordon (if Paul is out)

Secondary Plays – Eric Gordon (if Paul is active), Trevor Ariza, Clint Capela (GPP)


Los Angeles Lakers at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Lakers New Orleans Pelicans
Article Image Vegas Total 230.0 Article Image Vegas Total 230.0
Vegas Spread 2.0 Vegas Spread -2.0
Implied Team Total 114.0 Implied Team Total 116.0
Pace Projection +/- 2.9 Pace Projection +/- 3.6
Projected Starters Lonzo Ball Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Kyle Kuzma Julius Randle Brook Lopez Projected Starters Rajon Rondo Jrue Holiday E’Twaun Moore Anthony Davis Emeka Okafor
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 20 27 24 18 15 DvP 23 21 28 29 16
DRPM Rat. 22 3 30 1 16 DRPM Rat. 1 11 29 13 23

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers do not own their first-round pick in the upcoming draft, which is why we’ve seen them compete over the last couple of weeks. At this point, they can’t make the playoffs, but they can certainly play the role of spoiler. They have arguably the best matchup of the slate, as the Pelicans are ranked third in pace of play and 29th in points allowed per game. The Lakers have an implied total of 114 points, which is the second highest on the board and nearly six points above their season average.

Lonzo Ball is one of my favorite plays at any position tonight. This is the perfect game environment for him to succeed. The game will be fast-paced and very little defense will be played. We haven’t seen a triple-double from him in a while, so perhaps he could post one tonight against the Pelicans. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has struggled over his last five games, but he should play 35+ minutes at a discounted price point. Isaiah Thomas will also be heavily involved in this potential shootout. I see Ball as an elite play on both sites, KCP as an elite play on FanDuel, and Thomas as an elite tournament play on both sites.

With everyone gravitating to the value from Charlotte, Kyle Kuzma could potentially fly under the radar tonight. He’s an excellent tournament play, as he has 40 minute upside against one of the worst defensive teams in basketball. Julius Randle is viable in all formats and I love his price point on FanDuel ($7,500). Over his last five games, Randle has averaged 37 minutes and 45 fantasy points. Brook Lopez is more of a wildcard in my eyes. While I don’t expect Channing Frye to steal a ton of his minutes, it’s enough to make me look elsewhere at center.

Notable Injuries

Brandon Ingram (Out)
Josh Hart (Out)

Los Angeles Lakers Offense

Points Per Game: 108.3 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 114.0 (2 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 5.7 (2 of 12)

Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Points Allowed Per Game: 111.0 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.4 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.4 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.4 (3 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Lonzo Ball $7,100 $7,600 $13,700 34.3 -2.6 33.9 3.4 1.01 17.9% 16 20 22
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $5,500 $6,200 $12,100 27.5 0.4 33.6 3.3 0.82 15.5% 27 27 3
Kyle Kuzma $6,200 $6,300 $12,800 27.3 6.9 30.3 6.6 0.90 19.8% 17 24 30
Julius Randle $7,500 $8,000 $13,400 29.9 15.4 26.2 10.5 1.14 21.5% 25 18 1
Brook Lopez $6,800 $6,700 $12,800 24.0 13.1 22.9 10.0 1.05 21.0% 17 15 16
Isaiah Thomas $5,600 $5,700 $11,200 24.0 0.6 27.0 3.1 0.89 25.8% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Lonzo Ball, Isaiah Thomas (GPP), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (FD), Julius Randle (FD), Kyle Kuzma (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Isaiah Thomas (Cash), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DK), Julius Randle (DK), Kyle Kuzma (Cash)


New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans didn’t rest anyone in last night’s game against the Pacers and picked up an important win. Even though this is their fifth game in six nights, they have a ton of incentive to play their starters a full complement of minutes. They are currently only a half-game behind the Thunder for the fourth-seed and three games away from falling out of the playoffs altogether. It feels risky, but we have to like the Pelicans in a matchup against the Lakers. New Orleans has an implied total of 116 points, which is the highest of the slate and four points above their season average.

Rajon Rondo price has come way up across the industry. Even if I project him to play 30 minutes (expecting more in the 26-28 range myself), he still falls short of value expectations. Jrue Holiday on the other hand, is one of my favorite plays on DraftKings ($7,800). He didn’t play on Monday night and only logged 32 minutes against the Pacers. Of the five starters, he is the most rested. E’Twaun Moore continues to play well at small forward and is still dirt cheap across the industry. I have no problem firing up Moore in both cash games and tournaments.

The Pelicans are asking a lot of Anthony Davis right now. While it’s a concern, you have to think that he’ll play 35-38 minutes (assuming we don’t see the dreaded “Davis heading to the locker room” Tweet) in a dream matchup against the Lakers. On the season, Los Angeles is ranked 26th in efficiency against power forwards. Nikola Mirotic is an elite tournament play tonight and we should be able to target him at low ownership. Cheick Diallo also offers appeal as a tournament punt, as he has averaged 22 minutes and 24 fantasy points over his last three games.

Notable Injuries

None

New Orleans Pelicans Offense

Points Per Game: 111.7 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 116.0 (1 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 4.3 (4 of 12)

Matchup vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.9 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.5 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.1 (1 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Rajon Rondo $6,300 $6,300 $13,900 26.1 4.4 25.8 3.0 1.01 18.2% 21 23 1
Jrue Holiday $9,000 $7,800 $14,300 37.3 0.1 36.5 -2.2 1.02 21.9% 10 21 11
E’Twaun Moore $4,500 $4,300 $8,200 20.7 3.8 31.8 0.9 0.65 14.6% 18 28 29
Anthony Davis $12,500 $11,700 $21,400 54.2 -2.9 36.5 -1.5 1.48 25.8% 26 29 13
Emeka Okafor $3,500 $3,600 $6,700 16.4 -6.7 15.7 -4.9 1.05 12.7% 20 16 23
Nikola Mirotic $5,500 $5,500 $10,800 29.3 -4.1 26.9 0.0 1.09 20.5% N/A N/A N/A
Ian Clark $4,500 $3,800 $7,000 12.2 8.0 19.1 9.7 0.64 15.5% N/A N/A N/A
Cheick Diallo $3,900 $3,800 $7,200 10.8 11.8 10.2 9.7 1.06 15.2% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – E’Twaun Moore, Anthony Davis (GPP), Jrue Holiday (DK), Nikola Mirotic (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Anthony Davis (Cash), Jrue Holiday (FD), Nikola Mirotic (Cash), Rajon Rondo, Ian Clark, Cheick Diallo


Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM ET

Utah Jazz Dallas Mavericks
Article Image Vegas Total 198.5 Article Image Vegas Total 198.5
Vegas Spread -8.5 Vegas Spread 8.5
Implied Team Total 103.5 Implied Team Total 95.0
Pace Projection +/- -2.1 Pace Projection +/- -1.8
Projected Starters Ricky Rubio Donovan Mitchell Joe Ingles Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert Projected Starters J.J. Barea Dorian Finney-Smith Harrison Barnes Dirk Nowitzki Dwight Powell
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 22 9 8 20 7 DvP 10 1 3 5 14
DRPM Rat. 28 6 28 24 6 DRPM Rat. 3 8 7 9 1

Utah Jazz

The Jazz are coming off of a stunning loss at home against the Hawks. It was strange all around, as the Hawks have no reason to win at this point of the season, while the Jazz desperately need every victory they can get. Utah still controls their own destiny though, as they have a two-game lead over the Nuggets and Clippers in the loss column. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Mavericks and come into the game with an implied total of 103.5 points.

With every game meaning so much for the Jazz, we have seen them tighten their rotation. A quick glance at the table below and you can see that their key players have all logged more minutes and have been more productive over the last five games. The problem is that the productivity has led to increased price points. Ricky Rubio and Donovan Mitchell are both intriguing tournament plays on DraftKings, but neither stand out as core targets in tonight’s six-game slate. Joe Ingles continues to play well at small forward, but it’s hard to justify his price tag.

With Derrick Favors back in the lineup, Jonas Jerebko will head to the bench and Jae Crowder will see a few less minutes in the rotation. With all of the great options available at power forward, all three can be avoided. Rudy Gobert is too expensive to use on FanDuel, but firmly in play on DraftKings ($8,300). The Mavericks are ranked 21st in efficiency against centers and dead last in rebounding differential this season. Gobert should play 35+ minutes in an ideal matchup.

Notable Injuries

None

Utah Jazz Offense

Points Per Game: 103.0 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.5 (8 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 0.5 (8 of 12)

Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.2 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.5 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.4 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.4 (27 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Ricky Rubio $7,400 $7,100 $13,200 28.0 9.9 29.7 3.1 0.94 21.4% 26 22 28
Donovan Mitchell $8,100 $7,500 $13,400 32.5 4.3 33.2 4.8 0.98 25.4% 7 9 6
Joe Ingles $6,600 $6,400 $13,100 24.9 8.0 31.3 1.6 0.80 15.4% 22 8 28
Derrick Favors $5,600 $5,100 $10,300 26.8 -2.7 27.8 -4.2 0.96 16.2% 8 20 24
Rudy Gobert $9,500 $8,300 $15,100 36.2 8.2 32.4 3.4 1.12 14.7% 21 7 6
Jae Crowder $5,100 $4,800 $9,400 17.5 5.1 26.2 3.0 0.67 14.8% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Rudy Gobert (DK)

Secondary Plays – Ricky Rubio (DK), Donovan Mitchell (DK)


Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks are one of a handful of teams that I would rather not see the rest of the season. Luckily, they don’t have many young players that they want to develop, so we can at least somewhat accurately predict their rotation. They draw one of the worst matchups on the board tonight, as they face a Jazz team that is ranked second in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Mavericks have the lowest implied total (95 points) and the worst projected point differential (-7.7) of any team on the schedule.

My plan is to fully fade Dallas in cash games. For tournaments, you could potentially give J.J. Barea ($5,600) or Harrison Barnes ($5,700), but I wouldn’t go overboard with my exposure. It sounds like Rick Carlisle is going to rotate Nerlens Noel and Salah Mejri the rest of the season. With Mejri active tonight, Noel will likely be limited or even out of the rotation completely.

Notable Injuries

J.J. Barea (Probable)
Kyle Collinsworth (Questionable)

Dallas Mavericks Offense

Points Per Game: 102.7 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 95.0 (12 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -7.7 (12 of 12)

Matchup vs. Utah Jazz

Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.7 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.2 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.7 (25 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
J.J. Barea $5,600 $5,500 $10,700 24.0 0.6 23.4 -0.5 1.02 25.0% 8 10 3
Dorian Finney-Smith $3,500 $3,400 $6,400 8.5 5.1 15.1 8.0 0.56 10.9% 5 1 8
Harrison Barnes $5,700 $6,100 $11,800 30.4 0.9 34.3 0.6 0.89 22.1% 4 3 7
Dirk Nowitzki $5,100 $5,300 $10,300 24.4 -0.4 24.8 -1.0 0.98 18.9% 1 5 9
Dwight Powell $5,100 $5,400 $10,600 19.8 2.2 21.0 2.7 0.94 13.9% 3 14 1
Yogi Ferrell $5,100 $5,100 $10,300 19.3 1.6 29.1 0.6 0.66 15.5% N/A N/A N/A
Nerlens Noel $5,100 $4,100 $8,000 15.5 12.8 14.7 5.9 1.05 11.9% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – J.J. Barea (GPP), Harrison Barnes (FD GPP)


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious