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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, February 23rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-02-25 02:29:07

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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New Orleans Pelicans at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM

New Orleans Pelicans Washington Wizards
neworleansnba Vegas Total 213.5 washingtonnba Vegas Total 213.5
Vegas Sprd 5.0 Vegas Sprd -5.0
Team Proj. 104.3 Team Proj. 109.3
Team Pace 98.40 Team Pace 100.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Norris Cole Bryce Jones Dante Cunningham Anthony Davis Alexis Ajinca Proj. Starter John Wall Garrett Temple Otto Porter Jared Dudley Marcin Gortat
Opp. Season 15 25 27 10 13 Opp. Season 14 24 12 15 29
Last 3 Weeks 23 8 14 22 23 Last 3 Weeks 10 19 11 19 9

New Orleans Pelicans

Record: 22-33 — Road: 7-21 — Last 10: 5-5

The Brows Pelicans are coming off of a nice win against the Pistons in Detroit. In an interview yesterday, Anthony Davis said that their goal is to be the best team in the NBA during the second half of the season. That’s a little bit of a stretch, but New Orleans has been playing a lot better recently. They are 5-5 in their last ten games. Tonight they are 5-point underdogs against the Wizards in Washington. This should be an uptempo game, as the Pelicans are projected to score 104.3 points.

The Wizards have struggled defensively this season. They play at a fast pace and are ranked 19th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. It sounds like Eric Gordon is close to returning to the Pelicans’ lineup, although that may not be for a couple of games. One other injury to monitor is Omer Asik. If he is unable to suit up, that would give a boost to Alexis Ajinca and Ryan Anderson.

Elite Plays

Anthony Davis
anthony-davis-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,300 Salary:$10,200
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.24 FP/Min:1.31
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.7 37.1 1.4 35.6 -0.1
FPPG (FD) 44.3 48.7 4.5 49.4 5.1
TO-Adj. Usage 24.7 27.7 3.0 29.8 5.1

Davis is coming off of a career game in which he had 59 points and 20 rebounds. As a Brow backer, it was nice to see him finally show that upside that we have all been waiting for. I’m expecting a strong second half from Davis, especially since Tyreke Evans will miss the rest of the season. Davis’s minutes, fantasy production, and usage are all up over his last ten games. The only problem tonight is that there isn’t a ton of value, which makes it tough to fit these superstars into your lineups.

Jrue Holiday
jrue-holiday-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,800 Salary:$7,400
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.08 FP/Min:1.15
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.4 29.9 3.5 31.2 4.8
FPPG (FD) 28.5 36.7 8.3 44.9 16.5
TO-Adj. Usage 24.9 29.6 4.7 30.1 5.2

Holiday has been outstanding over the last month of play. In the 26 games that Tyreke Evans has missed this season, Holiday has a usage rate of 31.1. That’s a number that should leap off the page, as it rivals the usage of DeMarcus Cousins and Russell Westbrook. Holiday’s price continues to rise, but I’m more than willing to pay it when he is averaging close to 45 fantasy points in his last five games.

Secondary Plays

Ryan Anderson
ryan-anderson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,200 Salary:$5,300
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.84 FP/Min:0.90
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.9 27.4 -3.5 25.8 -5.1
FPPG (FD) 25.9 21.1 -4.8 19.7 -6.1
TO-Adj. Usage 20.0 20.4 0.4 22.6 2.7

This pick hinges on the availability of Omer Asik. The Wizards like to play small ball and if Asik is unable to suit up, Anderson could see north of 30 minutes. His production has been down recently, but this would be a nice opportunity to buy low, especially in tournaments. He won’t be on many people’s radar tonight.

Washington Wizards

Record: 25-29 — Home: 13-16 — Last 10: 5-5

The Wizards have been treading water over the last few weeks. They are 5-5 in their last ten games and still find themselves four games below .500 on the season. Tonight they host the Pelicans in what is expected to be a high-scoring game. The Wizards are projected to score 109.3 points, which is 6.8 points above their scoring average.

The Pelicans have been atrocious on the defensive end of the floor this season, ranking 21st or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. While this is a very favorable matchup, I am concerned about how many games the Wizards have had to play. They had that back-to-back-to-back stretch after the All-Star break and now have five games in their next seven nights. Bradley Beal minutes will eventually go up, but we should expect more than 26-28 tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

John Wall
john-wall-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,800 Salary:$9,300
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.15 FP/Min:1.27
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.0 37.1 1.1 37.4 1.4
FPPG (FD) 41.5 45.9 4.3 42.3 0.8
TO-Adj. Usage 24.5 25.3 0.7 24.6 0.1

Wall may be my favorite tournament play on the board. It’s hard to get up to Wall in cash games, given the lack of value and the presence of some other great superstars. However, Wall is an elite tournament play tonight against the Pelicans. The Wizards are projected to score well above their season average and Wall comes into this game in great form. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 45.9 fantasy points in 37.4 minutes per contest.

Marcin Gortat
marcin-gortat-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,100 Salary:$6,600
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.98 FP/Min:1.05
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.1 29.0 -2.1 28.1 -3.0
FPPG (FD) 30.4 32.2 1.9 33.9 3.5
TO-Adj. Usage 15.6 16.8 1.3 18.1 2.5

Gortat’s production is up over his last five games, but his minutes are trending in the wrong direction. That’s a big concern for me, which is why he is listed as a secondary option tonight against the Pelicans. The matchup is obviously in his favor, but dollar for dollar, I prefer the likes of Nikola Vucevic, Brook Lopez, and Jahlil Okafor.

Otto Porter
otto-porter-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,300 Salary:$5,400
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.77 FP/Min:0.82
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.1 29.1 -2.0 32.3 1.2
FPPG (FD) 23.9 21.2 -2.8 21.7 -2.3
TO-Adj. Usage 14.5 13.4 -1.1 11.7 -2.8

Porter is a nice contrarian play at small forward tonight. Danilo Gallinari and Gordon Hayward are both in great spots, which makes Porter a nice pivot in GPPs. He hasn’t been in great form recently, but his minutes are up over his last five games. Porter also draws a nice matchup against the Pelicans, who have struggled as a whole defensively.

Orlando Magic at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM

Orlando Magic Philadelphia 76ers
orlandonba Vegas Total 208.5 philadelphianba Vegas Total 208.5
Vegas Sprd -6.0 Vegas Sprd 6.0
Team Proj. 107.3 Team Proj. 101.3
Team Pace 96.80 Team Pace 99.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Victor Oladipo Evan Fournier Aaron Gordon Nikola Vucevic Proj. Starter Ishmael Smith Nik Stauskas Robert Covington Nerlens Noel Jahlil Okafor
Opp. Season 24 17 26 28 30 Opp. Season 21 5 21 17 10
Last 3 Weeks 28 15 15 15 25 Last 3 Weeks 24 2 26 12 13

Orlando Magic

Record: 24-30 — Road: 9-16 — Last 10: 4-6

The Magic have lost six of their last ten games and are now six games below .500 on the season. They have not played well on the road, but they have a chance to add a win to their resume tonight. They draw a favorable matchup against the Sixers in Philadelphia. The Magic are projected to score 107.3 points, which is the fifth highest team total and 7.6 points above their scoring average.

The Sixers are always one of my favorite teams to see on the schedule. They play at a quick pace, they don’t defend, they can’t rebound, and they get blocked more than any team in the NBA. That’s a great recipe for fantasy production. The Magic offense sees a sizable boost as a whole and I don’t mind targeting three or four of their players in the same lineup tonight.

Elite Plays

Nikola Vucevic
nikola-vucevic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,300 Salary:$7,400
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.07 FP/Min:1.14
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.1 34.7 2.6 37.2 5.1
FPPG (FD) 34.3 38.2 3.9 41.6 7.3
TO-Adj. Usage 22.2 23.5 1.3 23.2 0.9

Vucevic is going to be the chalk play at center tonight and for good reason. He has been on fire over his last five games, averaging 41.6 fantasy points per contest. He also draws one of the top matchups on the board, as the Sixers are ranked dead last against centers this season. Vucevic has a nice track record against Philadelphia, averaging over 40 fantasy points per game in their last four meetings.

Victor Oladipo
victor-oladipo-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,800 Salary:$6,700
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.89 FP/Min:0.96
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.7 36.5 4.8 39.4 7.7
FPPG (FD) 28.2 32.4 4.2 32.8 4.6
TO-Adj. Usage 19.7 19.4 -0.3 18.0 -1.7

When it comes to cash games, I am basically starting my lineup with Nikola Vucevic AND Oladipo. Victor has been playing all of the minutes that he can handle recently, averaging 39.4 minutes per game in his last five. The departure of Tobias Harris has led to an increase in both playing time and production. His price is likely going to go up here soon, so take advantage of the sub-7k price tag while you still can.

Secondary Plays

Aaron Gordon
aaron-gordon-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,100 Salary:$6,300
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.89 FP/Min:0.94
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 22.0 30.2 8.2 30.0 8.0
FPPG (FD) 19.6 29.9 10.3 33.9 14.3
TO-Adj. Usage 14.3 15.0 0.8 14.9 0.6

When Tobias Harris was traded, we all figured that it would lead to a boost in minutes for Gordon. However, he is still playing around 30 minutes per game, while Evan Fournier is seeing minutes in the high-30s. While I wish he would get more minutes, he is still a borderline elite play against this awful defense of the Sixers.

Evan Fournier
evan-fournier-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,400 Salary:$5,800
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.71 FP/Min:0.77
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.8 31.4 -0.4 40.7 8.9
FPPG (FD) 22.6 23.9 1.2 30.3 7.7
TO-Adj. Usage 16.9 17.2 0.3 16.6 -0.3

As I just mentioned, Fournier has been playing Jimmy Butler type of minutes lately. In his last five games, he is averaging 30.3 fantasy points in a whopping 40.7 minutes per contest. His price is still affordable across the industry and given the lack of options at shooting guard, he is a borderline elite play tonight on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Brandon Jennings
brandon-jennings-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,900 Salary:$4,600
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.80 FP/Min:0.87
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 18.6 20.9 2.3 24.5 5.9
FPPG (FD) 14.8 17.4 2.6 19.0 4.1
TO-Adj. Usage 18.2 18.9 0.7 18.1 -0.1

Jennings is a little too expensive to consider playing in cash games on DraftKings, but he is one of the top value plays tonight on FanDuel. In his first two games with the Magic, he is averaging 26 fantasy points in 25 minutes per contest. On a full slate, Jennings wouldn’t be on my radar, but he is in play tonight thanks to the limited number of punt plays.

Philadelphia 76ers

Record: 8-47 — Home: 5-21 — Last 10: 2-8

The Sixers have lost eight of their last ten games and own the NBA’s worst record at 8-47. While they are underdogs tonight against the Magic, the spread is set at only six points. As long as this game stays close, this will be a goldmine for fantasy production. The Sixers have an implied team total of 101.3 points, which is 5.7 points above their scoring average.

The Magic’s defense is the definition of mediocre. On the season, Orlando is ranked between 12th and 17th in all four of the defensive categories listed above. While I like the spot for the Sixers as a whole, there are really only two players on my radar in this one. I will be avoiding Ish Smith and Robert Covington, as both of their minutes are trending in the wrong direction.

Elite Plays

Jahlil Okafor
jahlil-okafor-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,600 Salary:$6,400
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.95 FP/Min:1.02
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.2 27.4 -2.8 30.4 0.2
FPPG (FD) 28.8 29.0 0.3 37.3 8.5
TO-Adj. Usage 21.9 22.2 0.3 23.9 1.9

When it comes to cash games, it’s hard to fade Nikola Vucevic. However, on two-center sites (like DraftKings), I don’t mind using Vucevic and Okafor together. I also like Okafor as a tournament play. If you take out the game against the Pelicans in which he got into foul trouble, Okafor has played at least 30 minutes and has scored at least 31 fantasy points in each of his last four games.

Secondary Plays

Nerlens Noel
nerlens-noel-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,800 Salary:$6,500
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.93 FP/Min:1.00
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 29.2 29.1 -0.1 30.2 1.0
FPPG (FD) 27.2 31.7 4.4 32.0 4.7
TO-Adj. Usage 13.9 14.3 0.4 13.9 0.0

Power forward could be the position where leagues are won and lost tonight. After Anthony Davis, there are a number of mid-range options with similar upside. Noel will likely be the lowest owned of the bunch, making him a strong tournament play. His minutes are up a bit over his last five games and we’ve seen the type of upside that he provides.

Sacramento Kings at Denver Nuggets – 9:00 PM

Sacramento Kings Denver Nuggets
sacramentonba Vegas Total 222.5 denvernba Vegas Total 222.5
Vegas Sprd 1.5 Vegas Sprd -1.5
Team Proj. 110.5 Team Proj. 112.0
Team Pace 102.40 Team Pace 98.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Ben McLemore Rudy Gay Quincy Acy DeMarcus Cousins Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Gary Harris Danilo Gallinari Kenneth Faried Nikola Jokic
Opp. Season 25 27 14 24 21 Opp. Season 22 30 23 29 25
Last 3 Weeks 14 1 13 26 21 Last 3 Weeks 11 30 30 27 18

Sacramento Kings

Record: 23-31 — Road: 9-18 — Last 10: 3-7

The Kings have lost seven of their last ten games and are now eight games below .500 on the season. With the way it is going, it doesn’t look like they will be making a second-half playoff push. The Kings draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Nuggets in what should be one of the highest scoring games of the night. Sacramento has an implied team total of 110.5 points, which is the third highest on the board.

The Nuggets are ranked above average in rebounding differential, but have otherwise been a great matchup to exploit this season. They are ranked 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. It looks like the Kings will be at full strength tonight, as all five players listed below are probable.

Elite Plays

DeMarcus Cousins
demarcus-cousins-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,900 Salary:$11,200
Position:C Position:PF
FP/Min:1.37 FP/Min:1.49
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.3 35.6 1.3 36.0 1.7
FPPG (FD) 46.9 46.1 -0.8 48.3 1.4
TO-Adj. Usage 29.1 28.5 -0.6 26.6 -2.5

Cousins had a monster outing against the Nuggets on Friday night, scoring 68 fantasy points in 39 minutes of action. He gets to face them again tonight, although this time it will be in Denver. Cousins is the top overall play on the board tonight, but it’s going to be difficult to fit him into your lineup without making sacrifices.

Secondary Plays

Rajon Rondo
rajon-rondo-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,200 Salary:$8,600
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.08 FP/Min:1.19
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.1 34.9 -0.2 36.5 1.4
FPPG (FD) 38.0 40.7 2.7 47.9 9.9
TO-Adj. Usage 17.4 19.0 1.6 19.5 2.1

Rondo is a little expensive on FanDuel, but is worth a look on DraftKings in both cash games and tournaments. He has been in great form recently, averaging 47.9 fantasy points over his last five games. He also had a big outing against the Nuggets on Friday night, scoring 55 fantasy points and coming one assist short of a triple-double.

Denver Nuggets

Record: 22-34 — Home: 11-16 — Last 10: 5-5

The Nuggets have played better recently, winning five of their last ten games. They are listed as 1.5-point favorites tonight against the Nuggets at home. I’m not sure that I’ve been able to say this all season, but the Nuggets have the highest team total on the board. They are projected to score 112 points, which is 11.3 points above their scoring average.

The Kings are one of the best matchups in all of daily fantasy basketball. They play at an extremely fast pace and they are ranked 24th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Nuggets’ offense should see a sizable boost as a whole. They are not listed below, but Will Barton and D.J. Augustin would both make nice tournament plays if Jameer Nelson is ruled out again.

Elite Plays

Danilo Gallinari
danilo-gallinari-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,100 Salary:$7,100
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.89 FP/Min:0.94
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.8 36.2 1.4 37.1 2.3
FPPG (FD) 31.0 32.1 1.2 32.0 1.0
TO-Adj. Usage 20.4 20.5 0.2 19.8 -0.6

Gallinari has been as steady as they get at small forward. His statistics over his last ten games are nearly identical to his season averages. He should see minutes in the mid to high-30s tonight against the Kings, who are ranked 23rd against small forwards. He is my favorite play at the position and I expect his ownership to be through the roof.

Emmanuel Mudiay
emmanuel-mudiay-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,600 Salary:$5,900
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.79 FP/Min:0.87
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.2 32.5 2.3 32.4 2.2
FPPG (FD) 23.7 27.0 3.2 27.4 3.7
TO-Adj. Usage 21.1 19.7 -1.4 19.6 -1.4

Even though D.J. Augustin has played very well off the bench, Mudiay should still see 30+ minutes tonight against the Kings (assuming Jameer Nelson is out). Mudiay is still affordable and he comes into this game in good form, averaging 27.4 fantasy points over his last five games. He also draws a fantastic matchup against Rajon Rondo.

Gary Harris
gary-harris-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,700 Salary:$4,700
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.60 FP/Min:0.65
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.5 35.5 4.0 38.8 7.3
FPPG (FD) 18.8 19.8 1.0 22.7 3.9
TO-Adj. Usage 13.5 12.2 -1.3 13.4 -0.1

Harris is a low-risk, medium reward play tonight in all league formats. He has been playing as many minutes as he can handle, averaging 38.8 over his last five games. You aren’t going to find another player at his price point that is playing that many minutes. Throw in a matchup against the Kings and he seems like a no-brainer tonight at shooting guard.

Secondary Plays

Nikola Jokic
nikola-jokic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,600 Salary:$5,600
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.07 FP/Min:1.13
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 19.9 23.7 3.8 18.3 -1.6
FPPG (FD) 21.3 27.6 6.4 17.8 -3.5
TO-Adj. Usage 17.3 20.2 2.9 17.9 0.7

This pick is strictly for GPPs. Jokic has been incredibly inconsistent this season and on Friday night against the Kings, he picked up four fouls and played a total of four minutes. I will not touch him in cash games, but he does provide nice upside in tournaments. Jokic showed that upside the other night against the Celtics, scoring 45 fantasy points in 30 minutes.

Houston Rockets at Utah Jazz – 9:00 PM

Houston Rockets Utah Jazz
houstonnba Vegas Total 202.5 utahnba Vegas Total 202.5
Vegas Sprd 5.0 Vegas Sprd -5.0
Team Proj. 98.8 Team Proj. 103.8
Team Pace 99.80 Team Pace 93.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Josh Smith Dwight Howard Proj. Starter Raul Neto Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert
Opp. Season 10 2 2 1 3 Opp. Season 17 21 29 30 20
Last 3 Weeks 22 7 2 2 5 Last 3 Weeks 9 11 25 29 27

Houston Rockets

Record: 28-28 — Road: 12-15 — Last 10: 4-6

The Rockets have lost six of their last ten games and have fallen back to .500 overall. Tonight they head to Utah to take on the Jazz in what will be a pace-down game for Houston. The Rockets are 5-point underdogs and have the lowest implied team total on the board. They are only projected to score 98.8 points, which is 6.5 points below their scoring average.

The Jazz continue to get better defensively. They are now ranked third in points allowed per game and second in fantasy points allowed per game this season. They also play at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA. That’s a terrible combination for fantasy production. I will be avoiding all Rockets’ players tonight. There are better plays for both cash games and tournaments.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Utah Jazz

Record: 27-28 — Home: 18-10 — Last 10: 7-3

The Jazz have won seven of their last ten games and are right in the playoff mix in the Western Conference. They are 5-point favorites tonight against the Rockets at home. The Jazz are projected to score 103.8 points. While that is only the seventh highest team total tonight, it is 5.7 points above their scoring average.

The Rockets have not, do not, and will not succeed on the defensive end of the floor. They are ranked 24th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Jazz offense sees a sizable boost in this favorable matchup.

Elite Plays

Derrick Favors
derrick-favors-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,400 Salary:$7,300
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.02 FP/Min:1.07
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.1 33.3 1.2 32.7 0.6
FPPG (FD) 32.8 33.6 0.8 34.3 1.5
TO-Adj. Usage 20.5 21.0 0.5 21.9 1.4

Favors got into foul trouble against the Wizards and had a bad outing, but has otherwise been in great form recently. He has topped 34 fantasy points in four of his last five games and he draws a dream matchup tonight against the Rockets. No team has allowed more fantasy points to power forwards than the Rockets have this season.

Rodney Hood
rodney-hood-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,900 Salary:$6,000
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.74 FP/Min:0.80
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.5 35.3 3.8 34.7 3.2
FPPG (FD) 23.2 26.8 3.6 27.8 4.6
TO-Adj. Usage 19.2 21.0 1.8 20.5 1.3

After some early season inconsistencies, it’s all good in the Hood. Over his last ten games, Rodney is averaging 26.8 fantasy points in 35.3 minutes per contest. I prefer Victor Oladipo to Hood tonight, but don’t mind playing both. The matchup is certainly in his favor, although we do have to worry about foul trouble, as he will be defending James Harden.

Secondary Plays

Gordon Hayward
gordon-hayward-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,600 Salary:$7,000
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.88 FP/Min:0.95
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.1 38.6 2.5 38.4 2.3
FPPG (FD) 31.8 31.9 0.1 33.1 1.3
TO-Adj. Usage 22.2 21.3 -0.8 23.1 0.9

Even though Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert are back to full strength, they haven’t cut into the production of Hayward. Over his last five games, his minutes, fantasy production, and usage are all up. I slightly prefer Danilo Gallinari to Hayward, although I don’t mind using both tonight.

Rudy Gobert
rudy-gobert-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,300 Salary:$6,800
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.92 FP/Min:0.98
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.2 34.5 1.3 33.7 0.5
FPPG (FD) 30.7 33.8 3.1 31.8 1.1
TO-Adj. Usage 11.4 13.1 1.7 12.7 1.3

Gobert makes a strong tournament play tonight on both FanDuel and DraftKings. There are a number of viable options at center and he should get overlooked by the masses. His individual matchup against Dwight Howard isn’t great, but Gobert has been in good form recently, averaging 33.8 fantasy points in his last ten games.

Shelvin Mack
shelvin-mack-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,700 Salary:$3,600
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.01 FP/Min:1.03
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 8.2 8.4 0.2 13.4 5.2
FPPG (FD) 8.3 10.6 2.3 16.6 8.3
TO-Adj. Usage 24.3 28.4 4.1 22.4 -2.0

Mack really played well in his Jazz debut the other night. He looked confident and it really showed in his play. He finished the game with 30 fantasy points in 24 minutes of action. The problem is that he is still the third-string point guard on this team. If you feel confident that he will see 20+ minutes, feel free to fire him up in tournaments.

Brooklyn Nets at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:00 PM

Brooklyn Nets Portland Trail Blazers
brooklynnba Vegas Total 210.5 portlandnba Vegas Total 210.5
Vegas Sprd 11.5 Vegas Sprd -11.5
Team Proj. 99.5 Team Proj. 111.0
Team Pace 96.70 Team Pace 97.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Donald Sloan Wayne Ellington Joe Johnson Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Noah Vonleh Mason Plumlee
Opp. Season 16 18 5 21 18 Opp. Season 26 20 22 20 22
Last 3 Weeks 1 25 3 13 20 Last 3 Weeks 17 13 24 20 19

Brooklyn Nets

Record: 15-41 — Road: 4-19 — Last 10: 3-7

The Nets have not fared well on the road this season, posting a 4-19 record away from home. It should come as no surprise that they are the biggest underdogs on the board tonight. The Nets are only projected to score 99.5 points, which is the second lowest team total on the board.

The Blazers have really picked up their play on the defensive end of the floor over the last month of play. They are now ranked at or above the league average in points allowed per game, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. I generally try to avoid targeting players on teams that are double-digit underdogs, but there are two secondary plays on Brooklyn tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Brook Lopez
brook-lopez-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,600 Salary:$7,500
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.07 FP/Min:1.13
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.7 35.3 1.6 32.8 -0.9
FPPG (FD) 35.9 40.2 4.3 33.8 -2.1
TO-Adj. Usage 22.7 23.6 0.9 21.5 -1.2

Lopez has been sharp in his first two games after the All-Star break, scoring 54 and 43 fantasy points. He draws a nice matchup tonight against the Blazers, but again, we have to worry about a potential blowout. I will limit my BroLo exposure to GPPs and target Nikola Vucevic or DeMarcus Cousins (FD) in cash games.

Thaddeus Young
thaddeus-young-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,900 Salary:$6,800
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.92 FP/Min:0.99
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.8 35.0 2.2 35.3 2.5
FPPG (FD) 30.3 31.6 1.3 32.8 2.5
TO-Adj. Usage 18.4 16.4 -2.0 17.7 -0.7

Young has really played well recently, averaging 32.8 fantasy points in 35.3 minutes in his last five contests. He also draws a nice matchup against the Blazers’ frontcourt that hasn’t been particularly effective at defending the paint. For me, it comes down to whether or not you think Young will see a full complement of minutes in a potential blowout.

Portland Trail Blazers

Record: 29-27 — Home: 18-11 — Last 10: 9-1

The Blazers have been on fire recently, winning nine of their last ten games. They are now two games above .500 on the season. They are listed as 11.5-point favorites tonight against the Nets at home. The Blazers are projected to score 111 points, which is the second highest team total and 7.7 points above their scoring average.

The Nets are obviously a strong matchup for the Blazers, but how comfortable are we that their starters will see a full complement of minutes tonight? That’s the biggest question here. While I usually won’t factor in a blowout in such a small slate, there are some great games to target tonight. I will be avoiding all Blazers in cash, even you Dame.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Damian Lillard
damian-lillard-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,500 Salary:$9,600
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.13 FP/Min:1.23
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.0 35.5 -0.5 36.5 0.5
FPPG (FD) 40.6 44.9 4.3 49.4 8.8
TO-Adj. Usage 27.7 29.3 1.5 31.6 3.9

While I won’t be using Lillard in cash games, you have to like the upside that he provides in tournaments. If you decide to use him in a GPP, I’d pair him with one or two Nets’ players and hope that the game stays close. Lillard has obviously been in good form, averaging 49.4 fantasy points over his last five games.

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious