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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, November 1st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-11-02 01:49:30

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Houston Rockets at Cleveland Cavaliers – 6:00 PM ET

Houston Rockets Cleveland Cavaliers
houstonnba Vegas Total 217.5 clevelandnba Vegas Total 217.5
Vegas Spread 9.0 Vegas Spread -9.0
Team Total 104.3 Team Total 113.3
Pace +/- 0.4 Pace +/- -1.9
Proj. Starter James Harden Eric Gordon Trevor Ariza Ryan Anderson Clint Capela Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 3 14 17 5 6 2016-17 6 27 8 26 9

Houston Rockets

The Rockets are 2-1 under new coach Mike D’Antoni, but this hasn’t been the type of offense that we were expecting heading into the season. It could obviously be thanks to a small sample size, but the Rockets are currently ranked 23rd in pace and 13th in points scored per game. Their offense through the first three games has been to give the ball to James Harden and to have a big man run the pick and roll and the other three players on the floor spot up from the three-point line. While I’m not sure this style of play is going to let the Rockets compete with the best teams in the Western Conference, it’s certainly great for fantasy production. Moving forward, I do expect the Rockets to be near the top of the NBA in pace.

We have an interesting situation with today’s slate. Due to Game 6 of the World Series being played in Cleveland, they moved the time of this game up to 6:00 PM ET. The daily fantasy sites had to choose whether or not to include this game and lock an hour earlier than usual. FanDuel decided to include it in their main slate, so make sure to have your lineups set by 6:00 PM ET. Meanwhile, DraftKings decided to exclude it from their main slate, which is why there aren’t any salaries listed in the table below. Overall, this is not a great matchup for the Rockets. Even though the over/under is set at 217.5 points, the Cavaliers are ranked fifth in points allowed per game and second in defensive efficiency this season. James Harden deserves consideration thanks to his incredibly high usage in this offense, but the rest of the Rockets are best suited as GPP play. The most appealing tournament option here is Ryan Anderson, who is coming off of a double-double against the Mavericks. His price has come all the way down to $5,300 on FanDuel.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Rosters Pos Rosters Sal. Minutes FP/Game FP/Min Adj. Usage True Usage DvP
James Harden SG $11,200 37.2 49.9 1.34 33.0% 49.9% 14
Eric Gordon SG $5,200 33.4 24.6 0.74 19.7% 27.9% 14
Trevor Ariza SF $5,200 33.9 25.1 0.74 12.1% 22.6% 17
Ryan Anderson PF $5,300 30.3 20.7 0.68 13.4% 26.9% 5
Clint Capela C $4,600 25.7 22.3 0.87 11.8% 18.7% 6
Nene Hilario C $3,800 21 15.0 0.72 14.6% 30.5% 6

Elite Plays – James Harden

Secondary Plays – Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers must be saying to themselves, “what is a championship hangover again?” They have come out of the gates firing, winning three straight games by an average of 12.7 points. Their offense has been efficient, they have plays at a league average pace, and they have dominated defensively. That was basically their recipe last season and they are replicating it here to start the season. The main difference that I have noticed is how involved Kevin Love has been offensively. He has a 24.2% adjusted usage rate, which is nearly as high as LeBron James (27.2%) and Kyrie Irving (27.2). All three players have averaged over a fantasy point per minute to start the season. The Cavaliers’ offense is so concentrated that we can actually stack two of their stars on a nightly basis.

In theory, the Cavaliers draw one of the top matchups in the entire slate. The Rockets may not have the fastest pace to start the season, but any Mike D’Antoni team is going to end up near the top of the league in pace when all is said and done. The Rockets are ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency, so when that pace boost does happen, we will see them give up a ton of fantasy points to their opponents. The Cavaliers have an implied total of 113.3 points, which is the second highest of the 18 teams in action tonight. Kyrie Irving has been on fire to start the season and will draw a favorable matchup against the likes of James Harden and Eric Gordon. Take advantage of this sub-$8,000 price tag on FanDuel. Kevin Love is also a bit underpriced given his new role in the offense. He should matchup up against Ryan Anderson, who is a below-average defender. LeBron James deserves consideration anytime we expect the Cavaliers’ opponent to keep it close. Even in this large slate, you can pair two of the Cavaliers’ stars in your lineups.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Rosters Pos Rosters Sal. Minutes FP/Game FP/Min Adj. Usage True Usage DvP
Kyrie Irving PG $7,800 35 36.0 1.03 27.2% 43.0% 6
J.R. Smith SG $4,400 29.1 19.2 0.66 17.2% 22.6% 27
LeBron James SF $9,900 36.7 44.3 1.21 27.2% 48.7% 8
Kevin Love PF $7,400 31.1 35.4 1.14 24.2% 30.1% 26
Tristan Thompson C $4,300 28.7 17.8 0.62 5.4% 14.0% 9
Richard Jefferson SF $3,500 23 13.8 0.60 11.9% 18.8% 8

Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love

Secondary Plays – LeBron James, J.R. Smith

Los Angeles Lakers at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Lakers Indiana Pacers
lalakersnba Vegas Total 215.5 indiananba Vegas Total 215.5
Vegas Spread 9.0 Vegas Spread -9.0
Team Total 103.3 Team Total 112.3
Pace +/- 1.2 Pace +/- 3.0
Proj. Starter D’Angelo Russell Nick Young Luol Deng Julius Randle Timofey Mozgov Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Monta Ellis Paul George Thaddeus Young Myles Turner
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 27 20 26 17 18 2016-17 25 30 3 7 24

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers may be 1-2 to start the season, but for the first time in a long time, there is light at the end of the tunnel. Luke Walton is trying to establish an environment centered around teamwork, which was unfamiliar to this organization over the last few seasons. When you dedicate an entire season to saying farewell to one player, that doesn’t exactly bode well for team chemistry. There should be plenty of growing pains with this team, but they have a lot of young talent. D’Angelo Russell and Julius Randle are both off to nice starts this season and both seem underpriced given their roles on this offense. In terms of the pace, the Lakers are ranked seventh in the NBA, which is good news for their fantasy appeal and that of their opponent.

The Lakers come into tonight’s game as a sizable underdog against the Pacers in Indiana. The over/under is appealing at 215.5 points, but the Lakers implied total is right around the average of the 18 teams in action tonight. The main question is whether or not this game will stay competitive enough for the starters on both sides to see their full allotment of minutes. If it does, this should be one of the top games to target in the entire slate. Both of these teams like to push the pace and both have struggled defensively. Jeff Teague has always been known as a solid defender, but the Pacers are ranked 25th against point guards here in the early part of the season. D’Angelo Russell remains one of my favorite tournament targets. He has an adjusted usage rate of 25% and his price is affordable across the industry. Julius Randle isn’t in an ideal matchup, but he has shown his upside, topping the 35-fantasy point mark two times in his first three games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Rosters Pos Rosters Sal. Minutes FP/Game FP/Min Adj. Usage True Usage DvP
D’Angelo Russell PG $6,100 PG $6,700 PG $9,900 30.9 27.4 0.89 25.1% 36.1% 27
Nick Young SG $3,600 SG $3,500 SG $7,700 26.8 17.9 0.67 17.9% 22.2% 20
Luol Deng SF $4,900 SF $4,700 SF $8,400 28.2 18.9 0.67 11.9% 22.4% 26
Julius Randle PF $6,400 PF $6,300 PF $10,500 29.5 29.9 1.01 16.0% 27.9% 17
Timofey Mozgov C $4,000 C $4,200 C $8,700 23 19.5 0.85 11.2% 19.8% 18
Jordan Clarkson SG $5,200 PG/SG $5,500 PG $9,000 26.3 20.0 0.76 15.2% 30.6% 20
Lou Williams SG $4,300 SG $4,100 SG $7,900 20.4 19.4 0.95 23.3% 31.0% 20

Elite Plays – D’Angelo Russell (GPP)

Secondary Plays – D’Angelo Russell (Cash), Julius Randle

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers are 1-2 under new coach Nate McMillan. We are seeing a completely new Pacers’ defense, which is a bit strange given the fact that McMillan is more of an old-school type of coach. Through the first three games, the Pacers are ranked 28th in points allowed per game, 29th in defensive efficiency, and 24th in rebounding differential. Their offense hasn’t been an issue, but they can’t seem to stop anyone from scoring. There are a couple of statistics that jump out to me. The first of which is that Monta Ellis has the lowest usage rate of the five starters. He also has the lowest fantasy points per minute. With Jeff Teague taking on a bigger role than George Hill had in this offense, there aren’t nearly as many opportunities for Ellis. The other stat that I want to mention has to do without potential superstar Myles Turner. He is averaging 1.35 fantasy points per minute and has been a beast on both ends of the floor.

The Pacers should be able to get back on track tonight against the Lakers, who have one of the worst defenses in the NBA. This game should be fast-paced and as I mentioned earlier, could be a great source of fantasy production if it stays close. The Pacers are listed as 9-point favorites with an implied total of 112.3 points. Jeff Teague would be an interesting play in a shorter slate, but there are too many point guard options to look his way tonight. Paul George deserves consideration in all formats, especially on DraftKings where is priced at only $8,300. Luol Deng has been a solid defender in his career, but he’s no match for George. Thaddeus Young is worth a look in tournaments, although the Lakers have actually been tough on power forwards this season. Myles Turner price has come up across the industry, but he is averaging 41.6 fantasy points per game. He is an elite play in an elite matchup. I slightly prefer him on DraftKings where he is power forward-eligible.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Rosters Pos Rosters Sal. Minutes FP/Game FP/Min Adj. Usage True Usage DvP
Jeff Teague PG $6,300 PG $6,000 PG $10,400 31.1 24.4 0.78 24.0% 46.7% 25
Monta Ellis SG $5,900 SG $5,400 SG $10,400 34.9 23.1 0.66 14.4% 35.2% 30
Paul George SF $9,200 SF $8,300 SF $13,200 34.2 35.2 1.03 23.2% 40.7% 3
Thaddeus Young PF $6,100 PF $5,700 PF $9,900 32.1 27.8 0.86 16.1% 26.9% 7
Myles Turner C $7,100 PF/C $7,300 C $11,600 30.7 41.6 1.35 20.2% 24.0% 24
C.J. Miles SF $3,800 SG/SF $3,200 SF $7,500 17.8 18.0 1.01 22.6% 27.3% 3

Elite Plays – Paul George, Myles Turner

Secondary Plays – Monta Ellis (DK), Thaddeus Young

Orlando Magic at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

Orlando Magic Philadelphia 76ers
orlandonba Vegas Total 199.0 philadelphianba Vegas Total 199.0
Vegas Spread -5.0 Vegas Spread 5.0
Team Total 102.0 Team Total 97.0
Pace +/- 2.3 Pace +/- -1.2
Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Aaron Gordon Serge Ibaka Nikola Vucevic Proj. Starter Sergio Rodriguez Gerald Henderson Robert Covington Dario Saric Joel Embiid
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 30 9 4 27 17 2016-17 25 12 20 22 29

Orlando Magic

The Magic have been out of sorts to start the season. They are 0-3 and they have lost by an average of 14.7 points. They have not been playing well as a team and if you watch any of their games, they aren’t making any effort to get their teammates involved. Everyone is trying to get their own shot, which can be troublesome when you have five starters that all have potential on the offensive end of the floor. I expect Frank Vogel to turn it around though, and they have a get right spot tonight against the Sixers. Eventually, someone is going to have to take a backseat in this offense and I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up being newly-acquired Serge Ibaka.

The Magic come into tonight’s game as 5-point favorites against the Sixers in what should be a fantasy goldmine. This game may have a low over/under, but don’t let that fool you. This game is projected to have a slightly above-average pace. The only reason that the over/under is so low is the inefficiency of these two offenses. All that means to us is that there will be more opportunities for rebounds, blocks, and steals. I’m not ashamed to admit it – I have an Elfrid Payton problem. I’m a sucker for cheap point guards that can fill up the stat sheet. I’m going back to the well tonight against the Sixers, who are ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed to point guards this season. I consider Payton an elite play in all formats. Evan Fournier leads the Magic in minutes per game and in adjusted usage. He is also an elite play in this matchup. The Sixers have been one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA in each of the last few seasons. Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon are also intriguing plays tonight. I typically don’t love stacking a single team in cash games, but I could realistically end up with three Magic players in my lineup tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Rosters Pos Rosters Sal. Minutes FP/Game FP/Min Adj. Usage True Usage DvP
Elfrid Payton PG $6,000 PG $5,600 PG $9,800 33.1 27.0 0.82 20.8% 39.7% 30
Evan Fournier SG $6,000 SG $6,000 SG $8,800 34.8 26.4 0.76 22.9% 28.8% 9
Aaron Gordon SF $5,900 SF/PF $5,700 SF $9,200 29.9 26.6 0.89 15.5% 22.5% 4
Serge Ibaka PF $5,500 PF/C $5,600 PF $10,300 28.8 20.4 0.71 17.5% 20.1% 27
Nikola Vucevic C $7,400 C $6,100 C $10,500 28.8 30.5 1.06 18.5% 36.2% 17
Bismack Biyombo C $4,500 C $4,000 C $8,100 21 9.7 0.46 5.6% 13.3% 17

Elite Plays – Elfrid Payton, Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic (DK)

Secondary Plays – Nikola Vucevic (FD), Serge Ibaka

Philadelphia 76ers

Isn’t it great to have meaningful basketball in Philadelphia again. Joel Embiid has single-handedly revived the Sixers from the dead. The best part is his self-proclaimed nickname of “The Process,” which is a shout-out to Sam Hinkie, the former general manager of the team. This team will likely still have one of the worst records in the NBA this season, but at least they have something to look forward to. They should be a fun team to watch when they get Ben Simmons and Nerlens Noel back. It sounds like Jahlil Okafor is going to rest tonight and play tomorrow, while Embiid is going to play tonight and rest tomorrow. In theory, this should open up minutes for both players, but they are both on minute restrictions anyway.

The Sixers are 5-point underdogs tonight against the Magic. While their implied total of 97 points seems low, it is 12.5 points above their average on the season. If you look strictly at implied totals vs. season averages, they have the biggest difference of any team in the slate. The Magic are a favorable matchup, as they are ranked 24th in fantasy points allowed this season. Sergio Rodriguez has played well so far, averaging 27.3 fantasy points in just over 30 minutes per game. His price has come up enough that I don’t consider him a must play, but he still stands out as one of the better overall values tonight. Gerald Henderson and Robert Covington aren’t seeing enough minutes to pique my interest just yet. The same applied to Daro Saric. Even though Joel Embiid is on a 20-minute restriction, I’m considering him tonight on FanDuel. He has an extremely high usage rate in this offense and he is averaging 1.30 fantasy points per minute. If he plays 20 minutes tonight, he could easily get 25+ fantasy points against the Magic.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Rosters Pos Rosters Sal. Minutes FP/Game FP/Min Adj. Usage True Usage DvP
Sergio Rodriguez PG $5,100 PG $4,700 PG $8,200 30.4 27.3 0.90 22.4% 25
Gerald Henderson SG $3,900 SG $3,400 SG $9,000 21.2 8.1 0.38 12.3% 24.9% 12
Robert Covington SF $4,700 SF $4,800 SF $9,500 27.4 14.9 0.54 8.4% 26.6% 20
Dario Saric PF $3,900 SF/PF $4,600 PF $9,200 26.9 13.1 0.49 17.1% 22
Joel Embiid C $4,500 C $5,700 C $9,100 18.9 24.7 1.30 25.5% 29
Jerami Grant SF $4,200 SF $4,000 SF $6,000 20.6 14.7 0.71 16.8% 24.3% 20
Nik Stauskas SG $3,600 SG $3,000 SG $6,000 25.7 15.9 0.62 10.4% 24.3% 12

Elite Plays – Sergio Rodriguez (DK)

Secondary Plays – Sergio Rodriguez (FD), Joel Embiid (FD)

New York Knicks at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM ET

New York Knicks Detroit Pistons
newyorknba Vegas Total 198.5 detroitnba Vegas Total 198.5
Vegas Spread 4.0 Vegas Spread -4.0
Team Total 97.3 Team Total 101.3
Pace +/- -2.8 Pace +/- 1.2
Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Courtney Lee Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Joakim Noah Proj. Starter Ish Smith Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Tobias Harris Andre Drummond
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 6 22 17 2 10 2016-17 16 4 30 27 10

New York Knicks

The Knicks were shredded by the Cavaliers in their season opener, but they bounced back with a nice win over the Grizzlies. The sample size is small, but the Bulls appear to be the better of the two Eastern Conference teams that completely shook up their rosters in the offseason. The Knicks have played at a slightly above-average pace thus far, averaging 99.5 points per game. Many of us were hoping for a breakout season from Kristaps Porzingis, but he appears to be the third option offensively behind Carmelo Anthony and Derrick Rose. In the first two games, Porzingis has an adjusted usage rate of only 17.7%. This is likely going to be a team that we target very little throughout the NBA season.

The Knicks are listed as 4-point underdogs tonight against the Pistons in what is expected to be one of the lowest scoring games in the slate. Detroit is a slow-paced team that is ranked third in points allowed per game and seventh in fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Knicks have an implied total of only 97.3 points, which is the third lowest on the board. Given the uncertainty of this offense and the difficult matchup against the Pistons, this is an easy team to fade tonight in DFS. If I had to take one Knicks’ player in tournaments tonight, it would be Kristaps Porzingis. He will have a big height advantage over Tobias Harris, who is an undersized power forward. Porzingis also offers great upside in terms of rebounds and blocked shots.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Rosters Pos Rosters Sal. Minutes FP/Game FP/Min Adj. Usage True Usage DvP
Derrick Rose PG $5,700 PG $5,600 PG $10,100 30.9 24.2 0.78 20.5% 40.5% 6
Courtney Lee SG $3,700 SG $3,800 SG $7,100 26.6 13.4 0.50 12.2% 21.4% 22
Carmelo Anthony SF $7,500 SF $7,500 SF $14,100 32.8 29.6 0.90 24.7% 40.0% 17
Kristaps Porzingis PF $6,600 PF $7,100 PF $12,600 34.6 30.2 0.87 17.7% 28.9% 2
Joakim Noah C $4,200 C $5,000 C $8,300 20.7 19.6 0.95 10.2% 27.8% 10
Justin Holiday SG $3,700 SG/SF $3,100 SG $6,000 22.9 15.9 0.69 15.9% 23.3% 22

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Kristaps Porzingis

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons are off to a nice start this season. They are 2-1 thanks to some great play on the defensive end of the floor. They are currently holding their opponents to 91.3 points per game. Their style of play isn’t exactly what we prefer in DFS though, as they are ranked 24th in pace and 25th in points scored per game. Reggie Jackson remains out for Detroit, which means more of the Ish Smith show moving forward. He has played well thus far, averaging over 30 minutes per game. Marcus Morris, Tobias Harris, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are going to be as safe of bets as any to play 32+ minutes on a nightly basis, but all three are inconsistent when it comes to fantasy production.

The Pistons come into tonight’s game as 4-point favorites against the Knicks. While New York has picked up their tempo this season, the Pistons are only projected to score 101.3 points, which is the eighth lowest implied total in the slate. The good news is that the Knicks are ranked 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. Ish Smith has yet to have a monster fantasy outing, but I’m very encouraged by his adjusted usage rate of 25.9%, which leads the team. I don’t love or hate any of the wing players for Detroit tonight. I see Marcus Morris, Tobias Harris, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope as secondary options. Andre Drummond may have one of the largest gaps of any player between his floor and his ceiling on a nightly basis. He makes sense in tournaments, but is an easy fade in cash games. In addition to the inconsistent play, Joakim Noah is still a very good defender.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Rosters Pos Rosters Sal. Minutes FP/Game FP/Min Adj. Usage True Usage DvP
Ish Smith PG $5,900 PG $5,400 PG $8,800 30.1 23.3 0.77 25.9% 44.7% 16
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope SG $4,500 SG $4,600 SG $8,000 32.2 19.2 0.60 14.8% 22.7% 4
Marcus Morris SF $5,800 SF $5,300 SF $8,600 32.2 26.9 0.84 22.2% 24.4% 30
Tobias Harris PF $6,200 SF/PF $6,100 SF $9,100 31.6 28.3 0.90 17.9% 26.0% 27
Andre Drummond C $8,400 C $8,200 C $12,500 29.5 40.4 1.37 21.0% 25.8% 10
Jon Leuer PF $4,000 PF $3,700 PF $6,900 26.1 19.2 0.74 11.8% 25.4% 27

Elite Plays – Ish Smith (DK)

Secondary Plays – Ish Smith (FD), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Tobias Harris, Andre Drummond

Sacramento Kings at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET

Sacramento Kings Miami Heat
sacramentonba Vegas Total 200.5 miaminba Vegas Total 200.5
Vegas Spread 3.5 Vegas Spread -3.5
Team Total 98.5 Team Total 102.0
Pace +/- -1.8 Pace +/- -4.2
Proj. Starter Ty Lawson Arron Afflalo Rudy Gay DeMarcus Cousins Kosta Koufos Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dion Waiters Justise Winslow Luke Babbitt Hassan Whiteside
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 8 12 11 12 25 2016-17 1 18 22 14 12

Sacramento Kings

The Kings are playing in the second half of a back-to-back tonight, after losing to the Hawks in Atlanta last night. They are now 2-2 to start the season. They have surprisingly been above-average in terms of efficiency on the offensive end of the floor. Despite playing at the fourth slowest pace, they are ranked 13th in points allowed per game at 104.3. The offense has been running through DeMarcus Cousins, which shouldn’t come as a surprise. However, we have seen Rudy Gay take on a larger role this season with Darren Collison out. He currently has an adjusted usage rate of 25.3% and he is averaging 1.12 fantasy points per minute.

Tonight’s matchup against the Heat leaves much to be desired. The Kings are playing in a back-to-back set and they are facing a team that has historically been stingy when it comes to fantasy production allowed to its opponents. The Kings have an implied total of 98.5 points, which is one of the lowest in the slate. Ty Lawson has been a serviceable fill-in for Darren Collison, but he hasn’t been productive as many of us in DFS had hoped. He is still averaging over 25 fantasy points per game though, and he is still playing over 30 minutes per night. With that said, I prefer Ish Smith, Elfrid Payton, Tim Frazier, and Kris Dunn. Rudy Gay is a sneaky GPP play over on DraftKings. Despite his hot start, his ownership continues to be low and he is priced at a discount on DK. With so many superstars in the slate tonight, I have a hard time looking to DeMarcus Cousins in cash games. He has as much upside as anyone, but he’s playing in a back-to-back against Hassan Whiteside.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Rosters Pos Rosters Sal. Minutes FP/Game FP/Min Adj. Usage True Usage DvP
Ty Lawson PG $5,100 PG $5,500 PG $8,100 32 25.9 0.81 18.3% 31.5% 8
Arron Afflalo SG $3,700 SG $3,700 SG $7,900 29.4 13.9 0.47 11.5% 25.0% 12
Rudy Gay SF $7,300 SF $6,200 SF $9,900 32.4 36.3 1.12 25.3% 27.9% 11
DeMarcus Cousins C $9,900 PF/C $10,400 PF $14,800 31.5 40.8 1.30 27.5% 43.4% 25
Kosta Koufos C $3,500 C $3,100 C $8,700 20.4 15.6 0.76 10.7% 18.8% 25
Matt Barnes SF $4,300 SF $3,900 SF $8,100 27.4 22.0 0.80 16.3% 24.9% 11

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Ty Lawson, Rudy Gay (DK), DeMarcus Cousins

Miami Heat

There was a lot of talk in the preseason about how the Heat were really going to push the tempo this season. Erik Spoelstra also mentioned that he was going to limit Goran Dragic minutes due to the increase in pace. So far, neither of those have been true. The Heat are currently ranked 22nd in pace and Dragic is averaging over 32 minutes per game. Go figure. Miami has had a tight rotation this season with five players averaging over 29 minutes per game. Hassan Whiteside has been by far their most productive player, averaging 45.6 fantasy points in only 31 minutes per game. Tyler Johnson has also been a nice boost off the bench, averaging over 20 fantasy points per contest.

The Heat come into tonight’s game as 3.5-point favorites in what is expected to be one of the lower scoring games on the schedule. Miami has an implied total of 102 points, which is right around the average of the 18 teams in action. Given the fact that the spread is so low, I may be interested in a few Heat players tonight. In theory, this is a great spot for fantasy production. The Kings are a below-average defense to begin with and the Heat get to face them in the second half of a back-to-back. Goran Dragic is going to have a blowup game eventually. He has a 25.9% adjusted usage rate and an exploitable matchup against Ty Lawson. This is a great time to hop on him when his ownership should be low. Justise Winslow may not be the most polished offensive player, but he is averaging 35 minutes per game and he is cheap across the industry. I see him as a high floor cash game option tonight, even though his ownership will be low. Hassan Whiteside continues to be a monster on both ends of the floor, but I am hesitant to use him in cash games. As I consistently harp, DeMarcus Cousins is one of the best in the NBA at drawing fouls. I don’t want my cash game center to be in danger of foul trouble if I can help it.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Rosters Pos Rosters Sal. Minutes FP/Game FP/Min Adj. Usage True Usage DvP
Goran Dragic PG $6,900 PG $6,700 PG $9,900 32.2 32.0 0.99 25.9% 38.1% 1
Dion Waiters SG $4,500 SG $4,200 SG $8,300 33.7 20.1 0.59 16.9% 23.9% 18
Justise Winslow SF $5,000 SF $5,200 SF $8,200 35 28.7 0.82 20.1% 17.9% 22
Luke Babbitt PF $3,800 PF $3,100 SF $7,000 21.3 13.2 0.62 18.2% 22.3% 14
Hassan Whiteside C $8,600 C $8,700 C $13,200 30.9 45.6 1.48 20.8% 22.5% 12
Tyler Johnson PG $4,400 PG/SG $4,300 SG $7,400 29.2 21.2 0.73 17.8% 26.3% 1

Elite Plays – Goran Dragic (GPP), Hassan Whiteside (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Goran Dragic (Cash), Hassan Whiteside (Cash), Justise Winslow

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious