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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, January 6th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-01-07 18:41:24

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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New York Knicks at Miami Heat – 7:00 PM

New York Knicks Miami Heat
newyorknba Vegas Total 192.0 miaminba Vegas Total 192.0
Vegas Sprd 8.0 Vegas Sprd -8.0
Team Proj. 92.0 Team Proj. 100.0
Team Pace 96.40 Team Pace 94.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jose Calderon Arron Afflalo Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Luol Deng Chris Bosh Chris Andersen
Opp. Season 2 3 18 2 9 Opp. Season 10 16 7 8 19
Opp. Last 7 10 7 6 1 13 Opp. Last 7 15 6 19 20 27

New York Knicks

Record: 17-19 — Road: 8-11 — Last 10: 5-5

The Knicks have won five of their last ten games, but are only 8-11 on the road this season. Tonight they head to Miami to take on a slow-paced Heat team that also plays stifling defense. The Knicks are only projected to score 92 points, which is the second lowest team total on the board.

As mentioned above, the Heat have been terrific defensively this season. They are ranked fourth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. This is a bad spot for the Knicks as a whole and since they are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, they are an easy team to avoid tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Miami Heat

Record: 21-13 — Home: 15-7 — Last 10: 6-4

The Heat have won six of their last ten games, improving their record to 21-13 on the season. The Heat are listed as 8-point favorites with an implied team total of 100 points. While their total is only the 12th highest on the board, it is 2.6 points higher than their average points per game this season.

The Knicks have been mediocre defensively this season. They are ranked between 10th and 18th in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The main injury to monitor here is Hassan Whiteside. It sounds like his knee injury is lingering. He is currently listed as questionable, but was able to make it through shoot-around.

Elite Plays

Chris Bosh

Assuming Hassan Whiteside is out, Bosh would see a sizable fantasy boost. Not only would he see a potential uptick in minutes and rebounds, but he would also spend some time at center, which is a position that the Knicks have struggled to defend this season.

FD — $7,900 — PF
DK — $7,900 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.1 | Last Five Games: 22.7
Min/Game — Season: 33.5 | Last Five Games: 35.8
FP/Game — Season: 34.0 | Last Five Games: 37.9

Secondary Plays

NONE

Cleveland Cavaliers at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM

Cleveland Cavaliers Washington Wizards
clevelandnba Vegas Total 199.5 washingtonnba Vegas Total 199.5
Vegas Sprd -7.0 Vegas Sprd 7.0
Team Proj. 103.3 Team Proj. 96.3
Team Pace 95.10 Team Pace 100.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson Proj. Starter John Wall Garrett Temple Otto Porter Jared Dudley Marcin Gortat
Opp. Season 5 28 29 9 11 Opp. Season 13 12 3 3 1
Opp. Last 7 6 23 25 9 30 Opp. Last 7 16 8 3 12 4

Cleveland Cavaliers

Record: 23-9 — Road: 8-8 — Last 10: 8-2

The Cavaliers have won eight of their last ten games, but they are only 8-8 on the road this season. The Cavs are listed as 7-point favorites tonight against the Wizards in Washington. Cleveland is projected to score 103.3 points, which is the fifth highest team total on the board.

The Wizards have been better defensively in recent weeks, but they are still ranked 19th or worse against all four of the defensive categories listed above. Kyrie Irving is no longer on a minutes restriction, but probably won’t see more than 30-32 minutes tonight. His return to the lineup cuts into the production of both LeBron James and Kevin Love.

Elite Plays

Tristan Thompson

Thompson is a little expensive on DraftKings, but he is an elite value play tonight on FanDuel. Now that he is in the starting lineup, he should see minutes in the low to mid-30’s moving forward. He doesn’t have a ton of offensive upside, but he is a walking double-double.

FD — $4,700 — PF
DK — $5,200 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 10.2 | Last Five Games: 9.8
Min/Game — Season: 27.3 | Last Five Games: 29.7
FP/Game — Season: 21.5 | Last Five Games: 21.3

Secondary Plays

Kyrie Irving

Irving is a bit too expensive to consider on FanDuel, but he is an intriguing tournament play tonight on DraftKings. He is coming off of his best game of the season and odds are that we won’t see him priced this low again this season.

FD — $7,600 — PG
DK — $6,500 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 29.2 | Last Five Games: 31.1
Min/Game — Season: 22.8 | Last Five Games: 24.8
FP/Game — Season: 24.3 | Last Five Games: 30.7

Washington Wizards

Record: 15-17 — Home: 8-9 — Last 10: 5-5

The Wizards have won five of their last ten games and are now only two games below .500 on the season. They draw a tough matchup tonight against the Cavaliers at home. The Wizards are only projected to score 96.3 points, which is the fourth lowest team total on the board.

The Cavaliers have been elite defensively this season, ranking fifth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. As usual, the Wizards injury report is lengthy. Bradley Beal and DeJuan Blair are both out tonight. Nene Hilario, Drew Gooden, and Gary Neal are listed as questionable.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

John Wall

If the Wizards are going to have any chance of taking down the Cavaliers tonight, they will need a big game from Wall. He had his breakout game against them earlier this season and he comes into tonight’s game in good form, averaging 44.4 fantasy points in his last five games. Wall is more of a tournament play though, as his price is up across the industry.

FD — $9,900 — PG
DK — $9,600 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.4 | Last Five Games: 27.1
Min/Game — Season: 35.6 | Last Five Games: 36.8
FP/Game — Season: 40.7 | Last Five Games: 44.4

Otto Porter

Porter should play as many minutes as he can handle tonight. He has played well recently, averaging 29.7 fantasy points per game in his last five outings. He does draw a tough matchup against LeBron James, but Porter is a decent mid-range small forward option.

FD — $5,900 — SF
DK — $5,900 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.9 | Last Five Games: 16.5
Min/Game — Season: 32.2 | Last Five Games: 31.6
FP/Game — Season: 24.7 | Last Five Games: 29.7

Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM

Indiana Pacers Orlando Magic
indiananba Vegas Total 197.5 orlandonba Vegas Total 197.5
Vegas Sprd -1.5 Vegas Sprd 1.5
Team Proj. 99.5 Team Proj. 98.0
Team Pace 99.10 Team Pace 96.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Paul George Lavoy Allen Ian Mahinmi Proj. Starter Victor Oladipo Evan Fournier Tobias Harris Channing Frye Nikola Vucevic
Opp. Season 19 9 17 14 10 Opp. Season 4 23 4 18 17
Opp. Last 7 14 19 17 14 5 Opp. Last 7 12 5 7 17 17

Indiana Pacers

Record: 19-15 — Road: 7-10 — Last 10: 4-6

The Pacers have lost six of their last ten games and are only 7-10 on the road this season. Tonight they head to Orlando to take on the Magic, who are actually a good team defensively. The Pacers are projected to score 99.5 points, which is 2.9 points lower than their average points per game this season.

As mentioned above, the Magic have been better than average defensively this season. They are ranked 16th or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. George Hill and C.J. Miles are both questionable for tonight’s game. If Hill is unable to play, Monta Ellis would slide over and start at point guard.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Paul George

George is finally starting to show some early season form. Over his last five games, he has averaged 39.2 fantasy points. If you are paying up at small forward tonight, George is probably the top option. He draws a decent matchup against the Magic, who are ranked 17th against small forwards this season.

FD — $8,900 — SF
DK — $9,100 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.8 | Last Five Games: 24.6
Min/Game — Season: 35.8 | Last Five Games: 36.6
FP/Game — Season: 39.7 | Last Five Games: 39.2

Monta Ellis

If George Hill is unable to play, Ellis would become a borderline elite play at shooting guard. I always like targeting players that slide over and start at point guard, because it allows us to roster more than we normally would with the roster limitations. Ellis scored 33 fantasy points the other night starting at the point.

FD — $6,000 — SG
DK — $5,900 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.8 | Last Five Games: 20.7
Min/Game — Season: 33.2 | Last Five Games: 35.8
FP/Game — Season: 25.8 | Last Five Games: 28.2

Orlando Magic

Record: 19-16 — Home: 12-6 — Last 10: 5-5

The Magic have lost five of their last ten games, but they have played well at home and they are 19-16 on the season. They draw a tough matchup tonight against the Pacers, as evidenced by the Magic’s low team total of 98 points. The good news is that this game should stay close, as it has a 1.5-point spread.

The Pacers play at a quick pace, but they are still one of the better defensive teams in the NBA. They are ranked ninth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Elfrid Payton missed Monday night’s game with an ankle injury. He has already been ruled out of tonight’s game as well.

Elite Plays

Nikola Vucevic

If you look at Vucevic’s recent game logs, you will want to avoid him tonight. However, you should always take a look at why a player’s minutes and/or production have been down. The Magic have had three blowouts in their last five games and one of which Vucevic only played 13 minutes thanks to foul trouble. He should see minutes in the low-30’s tonight against the Pacers. He is my second favorite center on the board next to DeAndre Jordan.

FD — $7,500 — C
DK — $7,300 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.0 | Last Five Games: 23.5
Min/Game — Season: 30.2 | Last Five Games: 28.2
FP/Game — Season: 32.6 | Last Five Games: 27.8

Victor Oladipo

Elfrid Payton has been ruled out tonight, which makes Oladipo one of the best values on the board. He will enter the starting lineup and start at point guard Oladipo had a terrific outing the other night against the Pistons, scoring 36 fantasy points in 35 minutes per game.

FD — $5,700 — SG
DK — $5,800 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.6 | Last Five Games: 20.9
Min/Game — Season: 28.8 | Last Five Games: 26.9
FP/Game — Season: 26.1 | Last Five Games: 23.1

Secondary Plays

NONE

Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM

Detroit Pistons Boston Celtics
detroitnba Vegas Total 201.5 bostonnba Vegas Total 201.5
Vegas Sprd 3.5 Vegas Sprd -3.5
Team Proj. 99.0 Team Proj. 102.5
Team Pace 97.70 Team Pace 100.80
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Ersan Ilyasova Andre Drummond Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Evan Turner Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Kelly Olynyk
Opp. Season 1 8 25 24 20 Opp. Season 6 11 2 21 8
Opp. Last 7 3 2 16 27 19 Opp. Last 7 26 9 4 15 6

Detroit Pistons

Record: 19-16 — Road: 7-11 — Last 10: 5-5

The Pistons have lost five of their last ten games, but are still three games above .500 on the season. They draw a fairly difficult matchup tonight against the Celtics in Boston. The Pistons are only projected to score 99 points, which is 2.2 points lower than their average points per game this season.

The Celtics have one of the fastest paces in the NBA, but it hasn’t hurt their play on the defensive end of the floor. They are ranked eighth in points allowed per game and second in defensive efficiency. With Brandon Jennings back in the mix, I will be avoiding Reggie Jackson in all league formats tonight. The Celtics have been tough against point guards anyway.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Andre Drummond

In a vacuum, Drummond is an elite play tonight. However, given the other options at center – most notably DeAndre Jordan and Nikola Vucevic, I see Drummond as a better play in tournaments than in cash games. He has had good success against the Celtics this season, but isn’t the best center play dollar for dollar.

FD — $9,200 — C
DK — $9,000 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.0 | Last Five Games: 22.2
Min/Game — Season: 34.9 | Last Five Games: 33.4
FP/Game — Season: 43.1 | Last Five Games: 39.2

Boston Celtics

Record: 19-15 — Home: 9-9 — Last 10: 5-5

The Celtics have won five of their last ten games and are now 19-15 on the season. The Celtics are only listed as 3.5-point favorites tonight, which seems a bit low given their struggles on the road. The Celtics are projected to score 102.5 points, which is right around their average points per game this season.

The Pistons have an underrated defense. They are ranked tenth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Avery Bradley has already been ruled out of tonight’s game, which should result in another start for Evan Turner. Kelly Olynyk is also projected to be in the starting lineup, with Jared Sullinger coming off the bench.

Elite Plays

Evan Turner

As long as Turner draws the start tonight, he is an elite play at SG/SF. He has played well in his last five games, averaging 26.8 fantasy points per contest. He played 37 minutes the other night against the Nets, scoring 28 fantasy points.

FD — $5,700 — SF
DK — $5,600 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.4 | Last Five Games: 18.3
Min/Game — Season: 27.0 | Last Five Games: 30.9
FP/Game — Season: 21.9 | Last Five Games: 26.8

Secondary Plays

Kelly Olynyk

Olynyk played 34 minutes the other night against the Nets, but that’s not something that we should get used to. Even when Amir Johnson and Jared Sullinger was out, Olynyk didn’t play that many minutes. He can fill up the stat sheet though, so feel free to use him as an upside play in tournaments.

FD — $4,300 — C
DK — $5,000 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.6 | Last Five Games: 15.1
Min/Game — Season: 20.0 | Last Five Games: 22.5
FP/Game — Season: 18.6 | Last Five Games: 18.7

Toronto Raptors at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM

Toronto Raptors Brooklyn Nets
torontonba Vegas Total 196.0 brooklynnba Vegas Total 196.0
Vegas Sprd -6.5 Vegas Sprd 6.5
Team Proj. 101.3 Team Proj. 94.8
Team Pace 95.70 Team Pace 97.80
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan James Johnson Luis Scola Jonas Valanciunas Proj. Starter Shane Larkin Bojan Bogdanovic Joe Johnson Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez
Opp. Season 27 24 20 12 26 Opp. Season 3 19 6 17 12
Opp. Last 7 13 18 11 23 26 Opp. Last 7 19 14 8 21 18

Toronto Raptors

Record: 21-15 — Road: 10-9 — Last 10: 5-5

The Raptors have lost five of their last ten games, but they are 21-15 on the season. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Nets in Brooklyn. The Raptors are projected to score 101.3 points, which is the eighth highest team total on the board.

The Nets have really struggled on the defensive end of the floor this season. They are ranked 21st or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. We can give a small fantasy boost to the Raptors’ offense as a whole. DeMarre Carroll underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee and will be out for the foreseeable future.

Elite Plays

Kyle Lowry

Lowry is coming off of a strong five-game stretch where he averaged 40.9 fantasy points. His price is a little high on FanDuel, but he is a strong play on DraftKings at a price of $8,300. He draws a favorable matchup against the Nets, who are ranked 27th against point guards this season.

FD — $8,900 — PG
DK — $8,300 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.3 | Last Five Games: 22.6
Min/Game — Season: 35.9 | Last Five Games: 38.1
FP/Game — Season: 38.7 | Last Five Games: 40.9

Secondary Plays

DeMar DeRozan

DeRozan has also played well recently, averaging 35.9 fantasy points in his last five games. His price has come way up across the industry though, which makes him more of a secondary play tonight. He basically needs 40-42 fantasy points to reach value. While that’s certainly possible, it’s hard to bank on when he only averages 34.3 per game.

FD — $8,200 — SG
DK — $8,100 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.9 | Last Five Games: 26.0
Min/Game — Season: 36.5 | Last Five Games: 36.0
FP/Game — Season: 34.3 | Last Five Games: 35.9

James Johnson

Johnson was a popular value play on Monday night, after he was named the starter. He put up a dud against the Cavaliers, but he should be able to bounce back tonight. He draws a favorable matchup against the Nets, who are a turnover-prone team. Johnson is a viable punt play again tonight.

FD — $3,500 — SF
DK — $3,200 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 12.9 | Last Five Games: 11.9
Min/Game — Season: 14.0 | Last Five Games: 11.7
FP/Game — Season: 9.9 | Last Five Games: 3.4

Brooklyn Nets

Record: 10-24 — Home: 6-11 — Last 10: 3-7

The Nets have lost seven of their last ten games and are now 10-24 on the season. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Raptors at home. The Nets are only projected to score 94.8 points, which is the third lowest team total on the board.

The Raptors have been solid defensively this season, ranking eighth or better in points allowed per game, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. In Jarrett Jack absence on Monday, Shane Larkin played 27 minutes, while Donald Sloan played 21. For now, it looks like it’s best to avoid both of the Nets’ point guards.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Thaddeus Young

Young has played well this season and he comes into tonight’s game in good form. Over his last five games, he has averaged 33.6 fantasy points. His price has come up a bit though, and given all of the other viable power forward options, he is more of a secondary play tonight against the Raptors.

FD — $7,100 — PF
DK — $7,400 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.9 | Last Five Games: 17.4
Min/Game — Season: 32.7 | Last Five Games: 33.6
FP/Game — Season: 31.6 | Last Five Games: 33.6

Joe Johnson

Johnson is one of the most inconsistent fantasy options in daily fantasy basketball. While that’s generally not an attribute that we look for in cash games, it makes him a nice tournament target. In 11 games without Jarrett Jack this season, his usage rate has skyrocketed to 21.6.

FD — $5,200 — SG
DK — $5,000 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.5 | Last Five Games: 14.7
Min/Game — Season: 34.8 | Last Five Games: 36.0
FP/Game — Season: 21.3 | Last Five Games: 18.5

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious