NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 12
I feel really good about this slate. Peep my article on PFF tomorrow if you want to hear more about the players listed in the “Other” section.
Note 1: All numbers in brackets refer to a player’s salary rank on each site.
Note 2: All references to expected fantasy points can be explained here.
Quarterbacks
Jameis Winston [DK: QB5, FD: QB8]
Tampa Bay totals 3,610 passing yards through 10 games this year, or the most by any team through their first 10 games all-time. If Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick were one quarterback, they’d combine to rank second all-time in fantasy points per game (27.1), with only Patrick Mahomes (28.2) ranking above them. There is the risk Winston might get benched at some point this week, though I think it’s low, and especially so in this matchup. San Francisco ranks seventh-worst in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. On top of that, the 49ers have given up the sixth-most passing touchdowns this year (21), but have recorded only two interceptions (second-fewest). Interceptions have been Tampa Bay’s only problem at quarterback this year, with a league-high 23 (seven more than next-closest). In a game Vegas thinks will be close (spread within +/- 3.0) and with the second-highest implied point total of the week (28.5), it’s worth hopping on this rollercoaster ride once again.
Lamar Jackson [DK: QB8, FD: QB11]
In this article I tried to explain how an extremely mobile quarterback is basically a cheat code for fantasy football. And quarterbacks don’t get much more mobile than Jackson. Last week, Jackson broke the Super Bowl-era record for most rushing attempts (by a quarterback) in a single game, with 27. In college, he set a record for career rushing yards per game with 108.7. In last week’s game, without the fortune of scoring a touchdown, he still scored 19.9 DraftKings fantasy points. He has another great matchup this week, against an Oakland defense that ranks worst in the league in pressures generated per dropback (0.22) and third-worst in opposing passer rating (108.6). Additionally, they rank last in fantasy points allowed per dropback with 0.76. For perspective, Patrick Mahomes is averaging 0.73 fantasy points per dropback, which is the highest number we’ve seen from a quarterback this past decade. Vegas seems confident as well, spotting Baltimore with their highest implied point total of the season (26.25).
Other: Andrew Luck, Nick Mullens, Baker Mayfield
Running Backs
Leonard Fournette [DK: RB8, FD: RB4]
Since returning from injury, Fournette leads all slate-eligible players in expected fantasy points per game (23.9). That’s despite the fact that Jacksonville held a lead on only 31% of their plays over this span. Even so, Fournette averages 26.0 carries and 3.5 targets per game, while drawing all six of the team’s opportunities inside the 10-yard line. Production has been strong as well, averaging 125.0 yards- and 25.0 fantasy points per game. With better projected gamescript this week (favored by 3.0 points against Buffalo), he’s a top DFS option on DraftKings, with a salary that hasn’t yet caught up to his volume or production.
Gus Edwards [DK: RB18, FD: RB26] / Josh Adams [DK: RB27, FD: RB19]
After last week’s game and with Alex Collins legitimately questionable, I’m fully expecting to see Edwards used as the team’s lead running back this Sunday. Last week, he out-snapped Alex Collins 49 to 17, out-touched him 17 to seven, and out-ran him by 97 yards (115 yards to 18). Not just that, but he was tremendous, ranking as our highest-graded running back of the week, forcing eight missed tackles on just 17 carries. He also has good gamescript and a soft matchup working in his advantage, favored by 10.5-points at home against the Raiders. Oakland is giving up the most rushing yards per game (130.0) and rank second-worst in yards allowed per carry (5.12) to opposing running backs.
In a 48-7 beatdown, Adams played on 55% of the team’s snaps, drawing 70% of the team’s carries (seven of 10) and 75% of the targets out of the backfield (six of eight). I like him quite a bit more this week, in a much better matchup, as 6.0-point favorites against a Giants defense that has struggled against the run since trading away Damon Harrison (the best run-stopper in the NFL). Before the trade, the Giants were giving up only 3.87 yards per carry. Since then, they’re allowing 5.27 yards per carry.
Matt Breida [DK: RB11, FD: RB13] / Nick Chubb [DK: RB9, FD: RB7]
Despite playing hurt almost all season, Breida leads all 100-carry running backs in yards per carry average (5.6). Week 10 was Breida’s first full game off the injury report since Week 3. He saw 17 carries and four targets, with two opportunities inside the 10-yard line, while all other San Francisco running backs combined for just 10, two, and zero, respectively. This was good for 17.1 expected fantasy points and a 70% market share. Coming off a much-needed bye week, I like his chances at a big game this week against the Buccaneers, who are giving up the most touchdowns (17) and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs.
After two straight games with a snap share below 50%, Chubb played on 79% of the snaps in Week 10 before the bye. In four straight games he’s seen at least 18 carries, while also drawing nine targets. More impressively, he’s seen six of the team’s nine opportunities inside the 10-yard line over this span. While these numbers are good, they aren’t great (14.6 expected fantasy points per game), and his snap share numbers imply gamescript-dependence. Still, he’s playing out of his mind – he’s our highest-graded running back this year – and does seem to be the team’s preferred option near the end zone. He has a near-ideal matchup this week, up against a Bengals defense that is surrendering a league-high 2.94 points allowed per drive. On top of that, they’ve been especially vulnerable to opposing running backs. They’ve seen 33% of their total yardage come via the run (tied for fifth-most), they rank third-worst in yards allowed per carry (5.11), and are giving up the third-most fantasy points per game to enemy running backs (29.5).
Other: Austin Ekeler (if Melvin Gordon is out), David Johnson, Saquon Barkley, Melvin Gordon, James Conner, Christian McCaffrey, James White, Elijah McGuire, Peyton Barber, LeSean McCoy, Lamar Miller, Marlon Mack
Wide Receivers
Odell Beckham Jr. [DK: WR1, FD: WR1]
Since Week 5, Beckham ranks second among all slate-eligible wide receivers in targets per game (9.8) and fantasy points per game (21.5). After seven straight games with double-digit targets, Beckham only saw four last week. Still, that was good enough for 74 yards and a score. I’m expecting double-digit targets and even better production this week against an Eagles defense that will be starting second- and third-string cornerbacks against the Giants. The Eagles will be without starters CB Ronald Darby, CB Jalen Mills, CB Sidney Jones, and CB Avonte Maddox, while CB Rasul Douglas is questionable with multiple injuries. No other cornerback on the roster has played in more than two games this year. Their depth chart now looks like this, and it’s gotten so bad they’ve had to play wide receivers at cornerback in practice. The Eagles will also be without starters S Rodney McLeod and LB Jordan Hicks. Even before the injuries started piling up, they already ranked as a top secondary to exploit. Coming into this week, they’re giving up the most fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers (31.4) and the third-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to WR1s.
Julian Edelman [DK: WR7, FD: WR7]
Since returning from suspension (Week 5), Edelman ranks fifth in targets (9.2) and sixth in fantasy points per game (16.6) among all wide receivers available on this slate. In each of these six games he’s also led New England’s receivers in expected fantasy points. That should be the case again this week, against a New York Jets defense that funnels action toward the slot (where Edelman runs 70% of his routes). New York ranks second-worst in fantasy points per game to slot wide receivers (21.4) but ninth-best to wide receivers running routes on the outside (18.3).
D.J. Moore [DK: WR24, FD: WR21]
Moore had his coming out party last week, totaling seven receptions, 157 yards, and a touchdown (on eight targets), but efficiency has been good all season. He now ranks second of 103-qualifying wide receivers in yards per opportunity. More volume should be coming this week, with Devin Funchess (20.7% target market share) doubtful to play. Moore also gets a soft matchup, running 63% of his routes from the outside, while Seattle is giving up the eighth-most fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers. At his price-tag, he’ll be rightfully pretty chalky this week.
Other: Adam Humphries, Keenan Allen, Larry Fitzgerald, Emmanuel Sanders, Danny Amendola, Dante Pettis, Sterling Shepard
Tight Ends
Cameron Brate [DK: TE12, FD: TE24]
For two consecutive seasons, Tampa Bay has ranked top-four in total fantasy points scored by tight ends. That hasn’t translated as strongly with the individual players, however, as Howard and Brate typically operated in a committee. Now, O.J. Howard is out and Brate is clearly one of the top plays of the slate. Brate has run a route on only 38% of Tampa Bay’s dropbacks this year, while that number sits at 61% for Howard. I think at the very least, Brate will slide into Howard’s role, but should actually see a larger share of the snaps and routes. In addition to better volume with less competition, Brate also gets an efficiency boost with Jameis Winston back under center. Since entering the league, Winston ranks second-best in passer rating when targeting tight ends (118.4) and leads the NFL in percentage of touchdowns thrown to tight ends (40.3%).
Zach Ertz [DK: TE1, FD: TE1]
Among all receivers on the slate, Ertz ranks sixth in expected fantasy points per game (17.2) and fifth in actual fantasy points per game (18.7). That’s also +3.6 expected- and +2.6 actual fantasy points per game more than the next-closest slate-eligible tight end (Eric Ebron). In terms of salary, he proves to be either a value or appropriately priced, as DraftKings’ ninth- and FanDuel’s sixth-highest-priced receiver this week. Basically, Ertz has been playing like a mid-range WR1 (or better) and is priced like a mid-range WR1 (or worse). If factoring in positional advantage – the tight end position has been murky and hard to trust – Ertz becomes an even stronger value. He should also draw lower ownership than normal after understandably busting in a worst-possible matchup against the Saints, who have ranked best in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends for two straight years now.
Other: Jared Cook, George Kittle