NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 7

Last week was amazing for me. I felt great about all of my calls, and seemingly every single player even casually referenced in this column had a monster week – barring Julio Jones and the Hogan twins. I also finished the week as FantasyPros’ most-accurate ranker.

This week is a little different. I’m like the Wes Welker of fantasy analysts. What I lack in natural ability, I make up for in monomaniacal levels of dedication, spending literally every waking hour buried in spreadsheets. Again, this week is a little different. Obligations for a friend’s wedding and fighting a speeding ticket in court got in the way of my typical 100-hour work week. So, what I’m lacking in preparation, I hope to make up for in honesty. This is a really gross slate, and I don’t feel great about it. With that caveat in place (sorry!), and focusing on only the main slate (excluding Sunday night), here are my favorite plays of the week:

Note 1: All references to expected fantasy points can be explained here.
Note 2: All numbers in parentheses refer to a player’s salary rank on each site.

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott [DK: QB4, FD: QB4] – Prescott ranks second among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game this season, and over the past two seasons leads all quarterbacks in fantasy points per dropback. The latter metric is especially significant considering San Francisco’s defense is surrendering 70.8 plays per game (most). San Francisco hasn’t allowed too much production to opposing quarterbacks (10th-most fantasy points per game), but rank last in the league in PFF pass coverage grade. Dez Bryant is the obvious stacking candidate, and we’ll touch on him later in the article. Ezekiel Elliott is in a great spot as well, up against a San Francisco defense allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season, after allowing the most last year. However, San Francisco is also allowing only the seventh-fewest rushing fantasy points per carry but the second-most receiving fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this year. If that trend continues, that should only mean more production for Prescott.

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Marcus Mariota [DK: QB6, FD: QB6] – 21 percent of Mariota’s career fantasy production has come on the ground. This ranks fourth-most among all 32 quarterbacks to attempt at least 600 passes since 2015. Mariota has been dealing with a hamstring injury, which should reduce ownership, and that is significant for fantasy, but is also (allegedly) very close to 100-percent and has practiced in full all week. Even with limited mobility, Mariota should absolutely dominate in what’s easily the best matchup for any fantasy quarterback. The Browns are allowing 20.5 fantasy points per game despite facing five of six quarterbacks averaging less than 15.0 fantasy points per game, while Mariota averages 17.2 despite playing just 23 snaps in Week 4. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 0.59 fantasy points per dropback against Cleveland, despite averaging a combined 0.38 in all other games. This is easily the largest differential among all defenses. Mariota, meanwhile, ranks fourth-best by this metric in each of the past two seasons.

The only difficult part of this call is figuring out who to stack Mariota with. For two consecutive seasons, Cleveland is allowing the most fantasy points per game over expectation to opposing tight ends (Delanie Walker or Jonnu Smith). They’re allowing the most fantasy points per target to opposing slot wide receivers (mostly Taywan Taylor). Eric Decker saw season-highs in targets (nine) and yards (88) last week. Jason McCourty is questionable for Sunday and isn’t ever a lock to shadow, which also keeps Rishard Matthews in play. As murky as this situation already is, DeMarco Murray being inactive would only further complicate things. (As it stands, I expect to go heavy on Elliott on all Mariota teams and heavy on Henry [if Murray is out] on all Prescott teams.)

Running Backs

Derrick Henry [DK: RB23, FD: RB35] – DeMarco Murray hasn’t practiced yet this week, dealing with a hamstring injury, and it makes sense to sit him before their Week 8 bye. If he plays, all bets are off, but if he’s inactive come Sunday, I’m going to want to be higher-owned than the field on Henry, despite him likely winding up as one of the highest-owned players of the week. Among all 35 running backs with at least 150 carries over the past two seasons, Henry ranks fourth-best in missed tackles forced per touch and second-best in yards after contact per attempt. Cleveland is much more susceptible via the pass (ranking last in opposing passer rating), than the run (ranking third-best in yards per carry allowed), but there should be enough positive game script and scoring opportunities for Henry to return value at his RB35 price-tag on FanDuel. For similar reasons, Chris Ivory is a strong play if Fournette sits. Though he’ll have less of a stranglehold over the backfield than Henry, with Corey Grant mixing in.

Christian McCaffrey [DK: RB16, FD: RB13] – McCaffrey frequently gets knocked for poor rushing efficiency (2.7 yards per carry) and volume (4.3 carries per game over his last four games), and this could cause him to go lower-owned than he otherwise should be. The lack of a rushing workload matters little to me, given how prolific he’s been as a receiver. McCaffrey ranks 13th among running backs in fantasy points per game, but his volume has been much better, ranking eighth in expected fantasy points per game (tied with Leonard Fournette). When rostering McCaffrey, you’re essentially playing a high-end-WR2 in your RB spot. Among wide receivers, he would rank 13th in targets per game, 23rd in receiving fantasy points per game, and (shockingly) ninth in receiving expected fantasy points per game. Despite ranking as our highest-graded running back via the pass, his fantasy efficiency has been poor, but I’m betting that changes this week against a depleted Chicago linebacking corps. Chicago linebacker Nick Kwiatkaski has missed his last four games and his questionable for Sunday. Linebacker John Timu was out last week and is doubtful for Sunday. Fellow linebacker Jerrell Freeman is out for the remainder of the year. These three players were in coverage on 46 percent of the opposition’s running back targets last season. Now Danny Trevathan (graded 61 of 88 linebackers in coverage last season) and a slew of backups will be forced to deal with the league’s most dangerous pass-catching running back.

Jay Ajayi [DK: RB15, FD: RB9] – Across the two games he was listed on the final injury report, Ajayi averages 13.0 touches per game and 39.5 total yards per game. Across the three games he was not, he averages 27.7 touches per game and 111.7 total yards per game. One of these games was in Week 3 against the Jets, when he scored only 4.5 fantasy points at high ownership. Despite Ajayi’s dud, the Jets are still allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs and sport our third-worst team run defense grade. The above splits also coincide with victories, and Miami is favored by 3.5-points at home – Ajayi has averaged 6.9 fantasy points per game more when the Dolphins win at home.

Jordan Howard [DK: RB12, FD: RB13] – Howard‘s 36 rushing attempts in Week 6 were the seventh-most by any running back this past decade. The Bears are taking it easy on their rookie quarterback, passing on only 32.7 percent of their offensive plays over the past two weeks, after passing on 57.5 percent of their plays in games Mike Glennon had started. To illustrate just how run-heavy they’ve gone, if they averaged 32.7 percent over a full season, that would be the highest rate of any team since 1977 (40 years ago). Howard also gets a significant boost with Luke Keuchly out. Keuchly was one of our two highest-graded linebackers against the run in each of the past two seasons. Since 2015, the Panthers are allowing +4.4 rushing fantasy points per game more to opposing running backs in games (nine) Keuchly has missed. Howard also averages a whopping 6.1 more fantasy points per game at home over the past two seasons.

Honorable Mentions: Ezekiel Elliott, LeSean McCoy, Adrian Peterson, James White, Duke Johnson, & Mark Ingram

Wide Receivers

Dez Bryant [DK: WR4, FD: WR4] – As I’ve yammered about for months now, over the past three seasons, Bryant has been the league’s most cornerback-sensitive wide receiver on both a per-target and per-route-basis. This season has certainly backed this up, as he’s averaging 3.6 fantasy points per game less than his expectation (fifth-worst among all players). This is almost assuredly in part to a league-leading 59 percent of his targets coming against cornerbacks who graded among our top-25 a season ago. Still the volume has been there, ranking first in targets inside the 10-yard line per game (1.2), first in end-zone targets per game (2.0), and top-six in target (27 percent) and air yardage market share (38 percent). Luckily for Bryant, he has a much softer draw this week against a San Francisco defense with starting cornerbacks Dontae Johnson, Rashard Robinson, and K’Waun Williams all ranking among our 20-worst-graded. I also like running this back with Pierre Garcon, up against a Dallas defense allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers (where Garcon runs 80 percent of his routes).

Bennie Fowler [DK: WR92, FD: WR99] – Fowler recorded two touchdowns in Week 1 against the Chargers, and I like his potential for another big game this week. Emmanuel Sanders is out for Week 7, and leaves behind 8.4 targets per game in his wake. He played on just 62 percent of the team’s snaps last week before suffering a sprained ankle. Fowler and Demaryius Thomas capitalized on his absence, recording season-highs in targets with eight and 14, respectively. Thomas has what appears to be an especially tough matchup this week, in shadow coverage against Casey Hayward. (Though, Thomas is still a very strong play in his own right, as the surplus volume should help offset the tough matchup, and he has performed well against Hayward in the past and against cornerbacks he’s had a significant height advantage against.) Fellow outside cornerback Trevor Williams is our eighth-highest graded cornerback this year and is allowing an opposing passer rating of just 57.1. Fowler, meanwhile, has a much softer draw, running 77.4 percent of his routes from the slot, where the Chargers are allowing 16.3 fantasy points per game (third-most). He’ll spend most of day against Los Angeles’ 5th round rookie Desmond King. King has been targeted 18 times, allowing 14 receptions for 165 yards. He’s also inexperienced playing out of the slot, as he worked on the perimeter on 86 percent of his routes in college last season.

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Jarvis Landry (DK: WR13, FD: WR17) & Adam Thielen (DK: WR14, FD: WR19) – Landry and Thielen are both grossly mispriced given the likely absences of DeVante Parker and Stefon Diggs (Michael Floyd is also questionable). Landry ranks sixth among wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game, while Thielen ranks ninth, both well below their salary rank. Thielen saw a season-high in targets (13) and expected fantasy points (22.7) last week with Diggs out, while Landry saw 12 targets and 18.7 expected fantasy points last week with Parker out. After years of being knocked for not having any touchdown-upside, Landry quietly ranks behind only Dez Bryant and DeAndre Hopkins in percentage of his team’s targets inside the 10-yard-line (30 percent), even with Parker ranking ninth. 26 percent of Baltimore’s receiving fantasy points allowed have come on deep targets, which ranks third-most in the league, while Thielen ranks 10th in deep targets. Even with Parker and Diggs out, both will continue to run the plurality of their routes from the slot. This means Landry will mostly see Buster Skrine, while Thielen mostly draws Lardarius Webb. Among 34 qualifying slot cornerbacks, each rank bottom-12 in fantasy points allowed on both a per-route and per-target basis from the slot.

Honorable Mentions: Pierre Garcon, Antonio Brown, Michael Thomas, Devin Funchess, Demaryius Thomas, Sterling Shepard, & Kenny Stills

Tight Ends

After not writing up a single tight end last week there’s a plethora of tight ends to like for Week 7. In no particular order, and highlighted primarily by fantasy points allowed over expectation, here are the tight ends I’m most interested in:

George Kittle has totaled 17.4 and 17.0 expected fantasy points over the past two weeks, ranking 10th-most among all players over this stretch. New starting quarterback C.J. Beathard played four years in college with Kittle, and Kittle caught 10 of his 34 passing touchdowns in their final two years together.

Hunter Henry ranks ninth in total routes run and sixth in targets at the position over the past two weeks. Over the past two seasons, Denver is surrendering 30 percent of their receiving fantasy points allowed to tight ends, which ranks first among all defenses.

Kyle Rudolph has served in a much more valuable role for fantasy following Dalvin Cook’s injury, Stefon Diggs is out for Week 7 (which has historically meant more targets funneled his way), and he’s up against a defense allowing the second-most fantasy points per game over expectation.

Jack Doyle leads the team and ranks fourth among all tight ends in expected fantasy points per game since Jacoby Brissett’s first start. Over the past two seasons (preseason included), Brissett has targeted tight ends 29 percent of the time, with only Carson Wentz and Brock Osweiler ranking higher. He’s the 20th-most-expensive tight end on DraftKings and gets a Jaguars defense ranking 12th-worst against expectation.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins ranks third among tight ends in expected fantasy points per game (12.4), third in targets per game (7.0), and first in targets inside the 10-yard line per game (1.0). He draws a Miami Dolphins defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends over their expectation.

Delanie Walker (or Jonnu Smith) gets a Browns defense allowing the most fantasy points per game against expectation in each of the past two seasons.

Jimmy Graham draws a Giants defense that has allowed a tight end to score a touchdown in all six games this year.

Nick O’Leary will be starting in place of Charles Clay who saw a 50 percent end zone market share (second-most among all players) and a 21 percent target market share (third-most for tight ends).

About the Author

ScottBarrett
Scott Barrett (ScottBarrett)

Scott Barrett works full-time as the senior fantasy football analyst for Pro Football Focus. Scott likes long walks on the beach and spends his days buried in Excel spreadsheets playing around with new statistics. Most notable among these are Actual Opportunity, the Bell Cow Index, depth-adjusted yards per target, and the DFB Matrix.