NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 7

Hey folks. How was your Week 6? I hope it was as good for you as it was for this reader (shoutout to @NeilRagland) who posted a $40K day using only the names mentioned in this article.

Here are my Week 7 main slate tournament plays for DraftKings and FanDuel:

Note 1: All numbers in parentheses refer to a player’s salary rank on each site.

Note 2: All references to expected fantasy points (the best stat in the history of fantasy football) can be explained here.

Note to All Readers: Bad news. My workload has increased substantially this year, from what was already almost unmanageable last year. For that reason, I won’t be able to keep updating this article on Saturdays. However, I will continue answering as many of your questions in the comments section as possible.

Quarterbacks

C.J. Beathard [DK: QB21 / FD: QB20]

If we only count games C.J. Beathard has started and finished, then he’s basically produced as a mid-range QB1 for fantasy. With that caveat added, over the past two seasons, Beathard would rank sixth among all quarterbacks in fantasy points per game (21.1). That’s better than Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Ben Roethlisberger and only one-tenth of a point behind Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers. He’ll have volume on his side as 9.5-point underdogs against the Rams, and the matchup isn’t the least bit intimidating with Aqib Talib out and Marcus Peters banged up. San Francisco scored at least 30 points in both games against Los Angeles last year, and the Rams are surrendering 27.3 per game since losing Talib.

Baker Mayfield [DK: QB8 / FD: QB14] Jameis Winston [DK: QB3 / FD: QB7]

Mayfield has played much better than his boxscore indicates, grading out ninth-best of 36 quarterbacks and posting an adjusted passer rating of 95.1 (13th-best). Now, he has the benefit of facing a borderline-historically bad Tampa Bay pass defense in the second-highest over/under of the slate. If the season ended today, the Buccaneers would rank worst among all pass defenses this past decade in opposing passer rating (129.5), passing yards allowed per game (366.8), passing touchdowns allowed per game (3.2), and interceptions percentage (0.5%).

While Winston’s matchup is far tougher in comparison (maybe the toughest of any main slate quarterback), he does have uber-genius OC Todd Monken – Stephen Hawking’s former math tutor – in his corner. This season, Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick combine to average 35.0 fantasy points per game, or 4.2 more than the record-breaking league-leader (Patrick Mahomes).

Other: Tom Brady (if Khalil Mack is out), Cam Newton

Running Backs

Todd Gurley [DK: RB1 / FD: RB1]

Gurley has now scored at least 20 fantasy points in each of his last 10 games and averages a whopping 31.9 fantasy points per game over this stretch. He leads all players in expected fantasy points, averaging 23.4 per game. That would rank best by any player this past decade and is significantly more than the 19.4 he averaged in his near-record breaking year last year. He totals 10.4 expected touchdowns, or 4.0 more than the next-closest player. Not only does he dominate in raw production and usage but also on a market share basis in terms of touches, yards, touchdowns, fantasy points, expected touchdowns, and expected fantasy points. He’s either No. 1 or No. 2 in each category dating back to Week 1 of last season. So, basically, he’s on the best offense in football, he’s one of the best players in football, and he’s seeing arguably the best usage in football. Right now he’s playing as close to anyone can in terms of being unfadeable, despite the monstrous salary.

Nick Chubb [DK: RB45 / FD: RB45]

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With Hyde now in Jacksonville, Chubb would easily be the best value of the slate if he assumes the entirety of his workload (granted, not a given). Hyde ranks 12th among running backs in expected fantasy points per game, averaging 19.0 carries, 1.5 targets, and 1.7 opportunities inside the five-yard-line per game. Tampa Bay’s defense has given up the third-most receiving- and the 14th-most rushing fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. The Buccaneers are allowing opposing rushers to average only 3.47 yards per carry, which ranks fourth-best. That seems to make the matchup tilt more towards Duke Johnson’s favor, but with DT Gerald McCoy and DE Vinny Curry out for Week 7, I’m not so sure. Last season Curry was our 13th-highest edge defender against the run (of 103 qualifying). This season McCoy is our 12th-highest-graded interior defender against the run (of 118 qualifying).

Tarik Cohen [DK: RB18 / FD: RB11]

Through the first three weeks of the season, Cohen averaged only 6.7 expected fantasy points per game. Over the last three weeks, Cohen has averaged 20.0, which ranks third-most among running backs. Over this span, he’s averaged 9.0 carries per game and 8.5 targets per game, which would put his usage close to that of Alvin Kamara’s (12.4 carries per game and 9.4 targets per game). He’s been productive as well, averaging 27.5 actual fantasy points per game (fourth-most among running backs) and helping Mitchell Trubisky to his two best career games (in terms of yardage and fantasy points). Volume and efficiency should be good again this week against a New England defense that has given up the second-most receiving fantasy points per game to opposing running backs since Week 1 of last year.

Peyton Barber [DK: RB48 / FD: RB22]

Last week Barber finally saw his best usage of the season, totaling 16.9 expected fantasy points, or 5.7 more than his next-best game. In total he saw 13 carries and four targets while all other Tampa Bay running backs totaled one carry and three targets. He was finally productive as well, racking up 106 yards and a score. His DraftKings price-tag ($3,800) looks all the more non-sensical when factoring in Tampa Bay’s implied point total (27.0, second-highest on slate), the projected game-script (favored by 3.5), and the matchup. Cleveland ranks second-best in opposing passer rating (76.8) and first in schedule adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Meanwhile, to running backs, they rank 10th-worst in yards per carry allowed (4.67) and third-worst in rushing fantasy points per game allowed. Oh, and per PFF, Cleveland has the worst run defense in football.

Other: New England Running Backs, Ezekiel Elliott, Duke Johnson, LeSean McCoy, Kerryon Johnson, Frank Gore, Latavius Murray, T.J. Yeldon,

Wide Receivers

Adam Thielen [DK: WR1 / FD: WR1]

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Thielen leads all wide receivers in fantasy points per game and expected fantasy points per game. He’s on pace to break the single season target record, single season reception record, and rank second all-time in receiving yards and (at the position) fantasy points. The Jets are giving up 24.0 fantasy points per game to opposing slot wide receivers (second-most) but the seventh-fewest to outside wide receivers. With Buster Skrine (the Jets’ starting slot cornerback) out again, Thielen should run 61% of his routes against Parry Nickerson, a sixth-round rookie who is four inches shorter and 20 pounds lighter than Thielen. Since Skrine went down in the first quarter of Week 5, Nickerson has given up 15 receptions, 169 yards, and two touchdowns (on 19 targets).

Jarvis Landry [DK: WR4 / FD: WR17]

Landry is my top positive regression candidate this week (based on expected fantasy points), and our track record on that has been perfect…for all players not-named Jarvis Landry. We know Landry’s volume has been tremendous, ranking eighth among wide receivers in expected fantasy points and ninth in expected touchdowns, but, of course, the production hasn’t been there. If it doesn’t happen this week, this might be the last time you see his name in this column. He has the best possible matchup this week, against a Tampa Bay defense that has been hemorrhaging fantasy points to slot wide receivers since losing their starting slot cornerback in Week 1. Landry runs 73% of his routes from the slot, while Tampa Bay is giving up 28.1 fantasy points per game to slot wide receivers. That’s 9.2 fantasy points per game more than the second-closest team. To outside wide receivers, they rank ninth-best, allowing only 19.7 fantasy points per game.

Josh Gordon [DK: WR18 / FD: WR15]

Last week, Gordon’s snap share jumped from 26% to 80% and he saw a team-high nine targets. On Tuesday, head coach Bill Belichick said of Gordon, “I would just say his role is expanding weekly and we’ll just see how it all plays out.” Translated from Belichick-speak into English, that reads “Gordon is the literal reincarnation of Randy Moss and we will treat him as such.” This week he gets ready to face a Chicago defense giving up the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing outside wide receivers (New England’s other outside wide receiver, Chris Hogan, ranks third-worst of over 100 qualifying wide receivers in targets per route run). But really, you need to ask yourself, “What kind of person do I want to be? Do I want to live life to the fullest, take chances, and choose to see the good in the world? Or do I want to fade Josh Gordon in a great matchup the week after he finally saw WR1 usage from Brady?

Update: Chicago’s slot cornerback has been ruled out. This pushes Gordon down a bit and bumps Edelman up.

John Brown [DK: WR17 / FD: WR17]

Brown ranks 30th in targets per game (7.0) and expected fantasy points per game but second in air yards per game (169.3), highlighting massive tournament-upside. Marshon Lattimore, our ninth-highest-graded cornerback last year, might shadow Michael Crabtree this week, but even if he does not, Crabtree will still run over half of his routes against him. Brown will then have the much softer draw, running 70% of his routes against Ken Crawley and P.J. Williams. Of 103 qualifying cornerbacks, both rank bottom-six in fantasy points allowed per route in coverage. New Orleans has also given up the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers on deep passes with 18.7 (or 10.0 points per game above the league average) and Brown leads all receivers in deep targets per game (3.7, by +1.0). It’s no surprise then that he’s the top receiver of the week, per my matchup model.

(Notes: I think it’s unlikely but it is possible – I’d put it at ~20% — Lattimore shadows Brown. In that case Brown is a bust and Crabtree is a tremendous value.)

Other: Robert Woods, DeSean Jackson, DeAndre Hopkins, KeKe Coutee, Kelvin Benjamin, Jermaine Kearse, Marquise Goodwin, Kenny Golladay, Taylor Gabriel

Tight End

David Njoku [DK: TE9 / FD: TE10]

Njoku leads the team with 19 targets over the past two weeks, one more than Jarvis Landry and eight more than Antonio Callaway. Despite seeing 10 fewer targets than the combination of both wide receivers, Njoku totals 13 more yards (124 total) and the same number of touchdowns (two). Now, in addition to both volume and efficiency, he also has the matchup on his side, up against a Tampa Bay defense that has given up the most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.

Eric Ebron [DK: TE3 / FD: TE3]

The old saying goes, “if something isn’t broken, don’t fix it.” To better illustrate this in the form of an analogy, my refrigerator is working fine, therefore I shouldn’t call a repair man to come in and mess with it. But what if my refrigerator wasn’t just working fine, but was actually dispensing diamonds and cubes of gold from the icemaker machine? That seems to be where we’re at with Ebron, a player we’ve mentioned almost every single week.

Jack Doyle is doubtful to play this week, and hasn’t played since Week 2. In the interim, Ebron ranks behind only Zach Ertz and 13th among all receivers in fantasy points. In terms of usage, he ranks much higher. In this span he ranks behind only four players in expected fantasy points (Todd Gurley, Adam Thielen, DeAndre Hopkins, Davante Adams). He ranks first in end zone targets (eight), fifth in targets (43, second among tight ends), and 10th in air yards (first among tight ends). In spite of all of this, he’s priced outside of the top-two tight ends and outside of the top-15 receivers on both sites.

O.J. Howard [DK: TE11 / FD: TE9]

A league-leading 42% of Jameis Winston’s career touchdowns have gone to tight ends, while the league average rate is only 24%. Winston is one of the league’s most-efficient quarterbacks when targeting tight ends, but struggles everywhere else (the opposite was true for Fitzpatrick). Howard played on 70% of the team’s snaps when healthy (Weeks 1-3), and Cleveland is without LB Joe Shobert – their primary tight end defender and the league’s best coverage linebacker.

Other: Zach Ertz (he’s basically a WR1 with TE eligibility, but I’ve written about him for four straight weeks)

About the Author

ScottBarrett
Scott Barrett (ScottBarrett)

Scott Barrett works full-time as the senior fantasy football analyst for Pro Football Focus. Scott likes long walks on the beach and spends his days buried in Excel spreadsheets playing around with new statistics. Most notable among these are Actual Opportunity, the Bell Cow Index, depth-adjusted yards per target, and the DFB Matrix.