NFL Chalk Talk: Week 2
The next wave of DFS analysis is ownership projection for GPPs. We could argue that knowing exactly what our opponents are going to do is more important than our actual box-score projections. Give a sharp player the ownership percentages before the tournament starts and he/she will be able to be profitable solely on that information.
Of course, projecting ownership is no easy task. I am not smart enough to do it with a model or algorithm. I do it with logic, feel and by closely monitoring who “everyone” is talking about.
So each week, I’ll give the three players at each position I think will be the highest owned in the DraftKings $20 buy-in Millionaire Maker. Please understand these are NOT my top-ranked players at each position – it’s simply who I think will have the highest ownership percentage. This refers to the Sunday/Monday slate only.
QUARTERBACK
1. Sam Bradford $6900: 22 percent
Last week, I projected Aaron Rodgers as the top-owned QB in the Milly Maker and Bradford as No. 2. It turned out that Bradford was actually No. 1 (17.3%) and Rodgers was No. 2 (13.3%). I expect even more people to be on Bradford this week as his price has not changed and now he’s at home against a Dallas defense that has been effective for the last year but still lacks talent. Everyone also saw on Monday night how Bradford doesn’t even have to play well to put up 300+ yards. That’s what happens when you rip off 68 plays in just 24:33 of possession. I’m on Bradford in cash this week, just like I was last week.
2. Matt Ryan $7400: 12 percent
Ryan was only 10.8 percent owned in Week 1 despite a dream home underdog spot in a game with a total of 55 points. I think we’ll see some correction there this week, even though Ryan is on the road this week. Although it’s true Ryan struggles on the road in real life (27-29 vs. 40-15 at home), his fantasy numbers are actually better on the road. It makes sense, as he’s trailing more often and thus throwing more.
3. Andrew Luck $8200: 8 percent
I think Carson Palmer and Aaron Rodgers will also be in this 8-percent range. But I have faith that the general public understands how difficult it was for Luck to go into Buffalo in Week 1 – and he still emerged with 19.7 DraftKings points. Now Luck gets a home game against a Jets defense that is very good but could be without Antonio Cromartie (knee). He’s also in the Monday Night Hammer spot.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED QBs: Russell Wilson (6 percent), Ben Roethlisberger (6 percent), Eli Manning (5 percent)
RUNNING BACK
1. Carlos Hyde $5100: 25 percent
The most owned running back in the Week 1 Milly Maker was Eddie Lacy at 26.8 percent. This week, Lacy will not be nearly as heavily owned as the Packers face the Seahawks and there are a ton of mid-priced RBs that are enticing. One of those is Hyde, who absolutely tore through an inept Vikings run defense on national television Monday night. Hyde’s ownership will also be enhanced by Reggie Bush’s (calf) absence. I’m considering fading Hyde as he’s a back that needs positive game flow. The 49ers are in a tough spot on a short week going across the country to face a Steelers team that will be on 10 days rest. Hyde and the Niners are 6-point underdogs.
2. Mark Ingram $5900: 20 percent
Another mid-priced RB that will be very popular is Ingram, who split carries with Khiry Robinson in Week 1 but was heavily involved in the pass game (8-98-0 on nine targets). Now Ingram gets the kind of spot we love to use running backs in: Home as a double-digit favorite. He’s also going to be very popular because users who play on two sites will be using Ingram on Draftkings at $5900. He costs $8000 on FanDuel.
3. Chris Ivory $4700: 13 percent
There is a little bit of whack-a-mole going on here. Ivory was 19.4 percent owned last week, too low considering the dream spot he was in and Zac Stacy being inactive. So even though some sharp people will be off Ivory given game-flow concerns for the two-down back at Indy as a 7-point dog, plenty of people will be chasing those two touchdowns. I also think Marshawn Lynch, Justin Forsett and Lamar Miller will be somewhere in this 10-15 percent range.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED RBs: Eddie Lacy (8 percent), Matt Forte (9 percent), Jeremy Hill (7 percent)
WIDE RECEIVER
1. Terrance Williams $4200: 21 percent
Everyone knows Dez Bryant (foot) is out. Everyone also knows the Eagles are the premier team to attack with QBs and WRs thanks to both pace and scheme/talent deficiencies in the secondary. So even though Terrance Williams is no world beater, he will be the No. 1 wideout for Tony Romo in this game and he will be a very popular value play. There’s certainly some fade appeal here, although not as much as there was with Davante Adams last week when he was 44.3 percent owned.
2. Julio Jones $8900: 20 percent
A very common lineup construction is going to be mid-price at both QB and RB, allowing owners to spend big at WR. The premier target there will be Julio, the league’s most physically dominant wideout who is playing as an underdog (again) in a game with the second-highest total of the week. Although the Giants have their best defensive talent at CB in Prince Amukamara and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, it’s still a plus matchup for Julio. A contrarian play will be to avoid Julio ($8900) and Antonio Brown ($8800), instead pivoting to Odell Beckham ($8800) in GPPs.
3. Jarvis Landry $5900: 20 percent
Landry was 20.7 percent owned last week in a tasty spot against a Redskins defense that stuffs the run but can’t defend the pass. He has another good matchup this week (at JAX) and his price only went up $300, so I think we can expect similar ownership. The ineptitude of Ryan Tannehill to push the ball over the top fits perfectly with Landry, who is dominant at the first level.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED WRs: Charles Johnson (2 percent), Pierre Garcon (5 percent), Odell Beckham (8 percent), A.J. Green (8 percent), Calvin Johnson (7 percent)
TIGHT END
1. Tyler Eifert $4200: 15 percent
In Eifert’s last five quarters of football, he’s seen a whopping 15 targets. I wasn’t on him at all in Week 1, but I’ll be hard pressed not to chase him a little at just $4200. He has a better matchup than fellow Week 1 breakout TE Jordan Reed and Mike Evans (hamstring) coming back will put people off Austin Seferian-Jenkins.
2. Rob Gronkowski $7300: 13 percent
I hate not rostering Gronkowski in all formats of daily fantasy. I think using him every week gives us a sizable edge over the field given the volatility at the rest of the position. However, at Buffalo is literally the worst spot a tight end can possibly have. I think the general field will understand that and be off him a little bit – especially given all the success cheapies like Eifert, Reed, ASJ and Jason Witten had in Week 1. It sets Gronk up to have some value as a GPP play.
3. Jason Witten $4300: 11 percent
I think there’s some validity to the argument that Terrance Williams’ role won’t change a ton with Dez Bryant out – mostly because he’s not really capable. That argument also entails a lot more opportunities for Jason Witten, who everyone saw score two touchdowns on Sunday Night Football Week 1. A pivot off Witten is Martellus Bennett, who has an elite matchup against a Cardinals defense that annually bleeds points to tight ends.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED TEs: Jimmy Graham (9 percent), Heath Miller (5 percent), Jordan Reed (8 percent)