NFL Chalk Talk: Week 5
The next wave of DFS analysis is ownership projection for GPPs. We could argue that knowing exactly what our opponents are going to do is more important than our actual box-score projections. Give a sharp player the ownership percentages before the tournament starts and he/she will be able to be profitable solely on that information.
Of course, projecting ownership is no easy task. I am not smart enough to do it with a model or algorithm. I do it with logic, feel and by closely monitoring who “everyone” is talking about.
So each week, I’ll give the three players at each position I think will be the highest owned in the DraftKings $20 buy-in Millionaire Maker. Please understand these are NOT my top-ranked players at each position – it’s simply who I think will have the highest ownership percentage.
Editor’s Note: This article refers to the Sunday-Monday slate only.
QUARTERBACK
1. Philip Rivers $6200: 24 percent
You think you are being sneaky by going for a Philip Rivers / Keenan Allen stack, right? Wrong. With the highest-priced player(s) at RB, WR and TE in such great spots, even the general public will be looking to save at quarterback. They’ll scroll down until they find a player with a proven track record like Rivers, and then they’ll see that the Steelers have been getting lit by opposing pass games for a few years now. I’m leaning toward Rivers as my cash-game quarterback, but he’s a threat to go overowned in large-field tournaments.
2. Tom Brady $7800: 16 percent
Normally, Tom Brady would be up around 20-25 percent in a spot like this. But with everyone spending on Julio Jones, Le’Veon Bell, Jamaal Charles, Odell Beckham and Rob Gronkowski, there’s just not enough money for Brady to end up at a super-high percentage. I do think he’ll be higher owned than Aaron Rodgers as many of the reactionary players will not want to go back to A-Rodg after they got burned last week.
3. Aaron Rodgers $7900: 11 percent
I’m still not exactly sure how, but in Week 3 we were able to get Aaron Rodgers at about 5 percent. Anytime that happens, we should jump on it. So even though I think Rodgers will be elevated around 10-12 percent this week, it’s still a nice and low percentage to get on him as a bounce-back off the dud at San Francisco.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED QBs: Matt Ryan (9 percent), Drew Brees (6 percent), Tyrod Taylor (7 percent)
RUNNING BACK
1. Todd Gurley $4300: 22 percent
The priority this week is going to be stars and scrubs construction. That’s going to lead some people to Boobie Dixon ($3000) is Karlos Williams and LeSean McCoy sit. But people are going to feel far, far more comfortable with someone they all know In Todd Gurley. They saw him smash the Cardinals for 19-146-0 last week and now has a better DvP matchup with Green Bay. This is a spot I’m going to fade in GPPs thanks to concerns about Gurley in a blowout (this game is in Lambeau with the Pack -10) as Bennie Cunningham is the third-down back. We also have a player still less than a year removed from an ACL tear – how will he bounce back off last week’s workload?
2. Jamaal Charles $7800: 16 percent
One of the big studs in a great spot this week is Charles at home against the Bears. His red-zone market share is massive in a game the Chiefs have a team total of 27.5. He’s also $700 less than Le’Veon Bell and is just as strong in the pass game. I think significantly more people will be on Charles than Bell, at roughly a 16 percent vs. 11 percent clip. Matt Forte should be somewhat popular too despite being in Arrowhead, I’m thinking 9 percent.
3. Dion Lewis $4800: 15 percent
I originally had Devonta Freeman up in this 14-17 percent range. But with Tevin Coleman (ribs) trending toward a return, I think Freeman will stay around 12-14 percent in spite of his recent heroics. Lewis is another salary-saver that carries some risk because he plays for the Patriots, but Thursday’s 2-year, $4.4 million extension should quell some fears. Lewis is #good and here to stay – especially in a full-PPR format like DraftKings.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED RBs: Mark Ingram (5 percent), Melvin Gordon (4 percent), Justin Forsett (9 percent)
WIDE RECEIVER
1. Keenan Allen $7200: 20 percent
Allen is going to be very highly owned no matter what as a No. 1 receiver at home against the Steelers’ “defense.” But with Stevie Johnson (hamstring) and Malcom Floyd (concussion) in doubt, even more people are going to gravitate toward Allen. He’s had 46 targets on the year with three touchdowns in his last two games – both sharps and recency bias people will be on him.
2. Julio Jones $9200: 19 percent
I think this is an eruption spot for Julio against a Redskins defense that is excellent against the run but is both bad and extremely injured in the secondary. But his ownership will stay somewhat under control because of his massive pricetag and because he killed anyone who rostered him last week (7.8 DK points). I also think Julio’s ownership will stay under 20 percent because Odell Beckham at a similar pricepoint of $9000 is also in a dreamy spot – home vs. the 49ers.
3. Julian Edelman $7000: 17 percent
I always underestimate Edelman’s ownership and perhaps I’m doing it again. He’s frankly too cheap for a player that has seen at least 10 targets in 10 straight games (including playoffs). But he’s priced similarly to Keenan Allen, Larry Fitzgerald and Randall Cobb – all of whom I believe will have plenty of traffic of them. I also think they’re all strong plays. One way to differentiate this week will be instead of going “stars and scrubs,” taking a balanced approach with this tier of wideouts.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED WRs: Demaryius Thomas (8 percent), Jordan Matthews (4 percent), Mike Evans (4 percent)
TIGHT END
1. Rob Gronkowski $7500: 29 percent
Gronk is back from bye and Gronk hungry. With all of the volume issues surrounding Jimmy Graham and Travis Kelce, there is no doubt that Gronkowski will be extremely popular. And unlike Julio/Beckham/Le’Veon, he’s not a completely salary vacuum. The only reason I don’t project Gronk over 30 percent is owners with any of those aforementioned trio plus plus a Jamaal Charles or Tom Brady / Aaron Rodgers are going to be hard-pressed to fit a $7500 tight end.
2. Charles Clay $4100: 15 percent
I was a bit surprised Clay was up at 19.6 percent last week in the Milly Maker. But given that he’s now seen 20 targets in the last two weeks and Sammy Watkins remains very questionable, we know Clay will be popular again. The calf issue the tight end popped up with Thursday does not sound serious.
3. Antonio Gates $4200: 13 percent
Le’Veon Bell came off suspension and was immediately among the most-owned running backs. Gates obviously isn’t in that tier anymore, but people still want to roster the new thing. Especially given the spot against Pittsburgh and the injuries the Chargers have to their pass-catching corps. I’m personally not on 35-year-old tight ends that aren’t on steroids anymore – especially when I’m going to have so much Keenan Allen. But I get it.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED TEs: Travis Kelce (9 percent), Martellus Bennett (8 percent), Tyler Eifert (6 percent)