NFL Grind Down: Week 1
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get one year of Grinders Incentives for free ($300 value).
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
| Green Bay Packers | Chicago Bears | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Soldier Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6.5 | 50 | 28.25 | 6.5 | 50 | 21.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 30.1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | Offense | 19.9 | 22 | 18 | 27 | |
| Defense | 27.6 | 31 | 30 | 19 | Defense | 18.3 | 8 | 8 | 20 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Chicago Bears | 31 | 23 | 22 | 31 | Green Bay Packers | 17 | 15 | 20 | 14 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Cobb | 127 | 91 | 12 | 1,324 | Jeffery | 145 | 85 | 10 | 1,166 | |
| Adams | 66 | 38 | 3 | 446 | Royal | 90 | 62 | 7 | 792 | |
| Janis | 2 | 2 | 0 | 16 | Wilson | 30 | 17 | 1 | 140 | |
| Rodgers | 27 | 20 | 2 | 225 | Bennett | 128 | 90 | 6 | 916 | |
There are a few games with Vegas totals over 50 on the weekend slate, and one of them is a usual suspect as NFC North rivals collide in Chicago. The Bears were an easy target for offenses last year, and the Packers were one of most prolific teams on offense. The Bears might be at home, but they’re one of the biggest underdogs of the weekend, as even an injury to Jordy Nelson doesn’t damper expectations for the Packers.
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Alshon Jeffery (CHI, Questionable, Injury), Eddie Royal (CHI, Questionable, Injury), Marquess Wilson (CHI, Questionable, Injury), Kevin White (CHI, Out, Injury), Jordy Nelson (GB, Out, Injury), Randall Cobb (GB, Probable, Injury)
GB Matchup Rating: 8.0
CHI Matchup Rating: 5.0
Green Bay Packers
The Packers are projected to score four touchdowns this weekend, giving them one of the highest team totals on the board. They’re facing a defense that allowed four touchdowns per game (just about, 27.6 points per game) last year, and that is not notably better than it was at this time last year. Antrel Rolle is a decent addition to the defensive backfield, but he’s not going to make a star out of Kyle Fuller just yet. A rookie last year, Fuller had the second-worst Pro Football Focus grade among corners to play at least half of his team’s snaps. And he’s their “best” corner.
All that to say, you should take a long, hard look at Aaron Rodgers (FD $9,700, DK $8,600) this weekend. In fact, if you want to roster a top-end quarterback on the weekend slate, he’s really your only choice. He’s the most talented quarterback in the NFL, and there are few, if any, matchups better than a quarterback against Chicago. There may be room for GPP pivots to other top passers, but in a cash game, I see no reason to click on any name but Rodgers.
Want to pair Rodgers up with a pass catcher? You have two main options, and both have merit in all game types. Randall Cobb (FD $8,400, DK $8,000) is a bit banged up, but assuming he’s looking likely to play after the final injury updates for this week, he’s a guy you’ll want to target if you’ve found value plays at other positions and want to spend on an expensive passing game stack. If the Bears try to follow Cobb around the field with Fuller, he’ll get plenty of opportunities, and if they line him up against their other corners, things will get even uglier. Cobb is too versatile to assume any one Bear will match up with him, but the good news is that no matter who opposes him, he’ll be the better player.
Not feeling the $8,000+ price on Cobb? How about we cut that in half? Davante Adams (FD $5,500, DK $4,400) will feature for the Packers in place of the injured Nelson, and he might have been in play even if Nelson had never gone down with a torn ACL. Adams is in his second year out of Fresno State, and became a trendy pick toward the end of last season after a pair of notable games in which he was heavily targeted (Nine targets at the Saints in Week 8, and 11 targets at home against the Patriots in Week 13). He’ll step into the spotlight in Week 1, and should get the best of whoever he lines up against. Oh, and his price is incredible, and you shouldn’t overthink this one. Save your “fade” for only the most contrarian of GPP plays.
As one of the biggest favorites on the board, it’s easy to talk about the passing game options for a team with the top quarterback in the league, but it’s money-making to talk about the running game that will help wear down the clock. Eddie Lacy (FD $8,500, DK $7,500) will get plenty of chances to redeem himself against a team he disappointed against twice last season. Despite rushing for over 1100 yards, Lacy combined for only 98 yards on 31 carries against the Bears last year, although he did score once in the first matchup on the ground, and caught a touchdown in the second game. Chicago ranked in the bottom three in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards (a measure of how well a team’s front seven defends the run), and while they received a passing grade against the run from Pro Football Focus, two key figures in their solid grade against the run (Jay Ratliff and Lance Briggs) are no longer with the team. With that in mind, Lacy is a solid option with a favorable game script, and his backup James Starks (FD $5,400, DK $3,600) might be worth a GPP lottery ticket, as he saw ten or more touches three times over the final seven weeks of the 2014 season, and could pick up a good chunk of yards or a score in garbage time in this one.
The Takeaway: Aaron Rodgers is the top quarterback on the weekend slate, and Davante Adams is the best value play at wide receiver. Eddie Lacy is a good option at running back, and Randall Cobb is an expensive way to get more exposure to this top offense.
Chicago Bears
The Packers graded out very poorly against the run last season, no matter where Clay Matthews lined up. You probably watched last year as analysts showed how Matthews made a difference when he moved inside to play middle linebacker for the Pack, but Pro Football Focus was unimpressed by his run defense and tackling consistency late last season when he made the move to a hybrid linebacker. And while game script doesn’t dictate that Chicago will be in a good position to run the ball this week, teams never were against the Green Bay last season. The Packers allowed three 100-yard rushers last year, including Mark Ingram, Marshawn Lynch, and Matt Forte (FD $8,800, DK $7,800). Forte’s 122 yards (along with five catches for 49 more yards) came in a 38-17 victory for Green Bay, so it’s clear Forte can return value even in a blowout loss. John Fox will have no issue instructing his offensive staff to keep the ball on the ground and play conservatively, especially since no one in Chicago trusts their quarterback anymore. No Bear has more receptions over the past five seasons than Forte, either, so with injury and depth concerns at receiver, look for Forte to be heavily involved in every facet of the game this weekend. He’s a great cash game play.
Which is good, because there’s nothing “cash game” about the Chicago passing game right now. The Packers were a pretty good pass defense last season thanks to Julius Peppers’ and Clay Matthews’ ability to rush the passer and contributions from a variety of defensive backs, including slot corner Casey Hayward, who makes the move outside this season to a starting corner role. They’ll be salivating at the thought of going against Jay Cutler, who failed to eclipse 200 passing yards in three of his last five starts last season, and whose 18 interceptions were tied for the league lead. You want no part of Cutler, but you may want to target his receivers.
Alshon Jeffery (FD $8,400, DK $8,300) is dealing with an injury, and John Fox is being stubborn about his status. If he plays, he will likely be underowned thanks to the lack of information about his health, so he could pay huge dividends if he scores. During the second half of last season, the South Carolina product saw target totals of 17, 15, 13, and 12 (in a game against Green Bay), with four touchdowns in those four combined contests. Volume is king in daily fantasy football, and a healthy Alshon Jeffery gets volume. But if you’re not sure he’s healthy, or are worried that the Packers will work to take him out of the game, Eddie Royal (FD $5,000, DK $3,900) is a viable option as the second receiver in Chicago. The veteran has never been a particularly great player over the course of a season, but always seems to show up at the start of every campaign. In 2014, he had four touchdowns in his first four games, in 2013 he had five scores in his first two games, and in 2008, he scored in back-to-back games to open his career. He’s not the most talented guy in the world, and the matchup could be better, but the price is right for a player likely to see his fair share of targets in a favorable game script situation. And finally, Martellus Bennett (FD $6,200, DK $4,300) is always in play, as he’s one of few NFL tight ends to be regularly featured in his team’s offense, but the Packers were very tough on opposing players at his position last year. DraftKings has priced most tight ends in the same range, and he’s too expensive on FanDuel, so he’s not worth considering outside of a tournament differentiation.
Friday Injury Update: With every viable option at receiver for the Bears listed on the injury report, we may want to reconsider how we attack this offense. I think the lack of health at the wide positions increases the PPR potential of Forte and Bennett, and based on reports, it sounds like Royal is the healthiest of the three questionable wideouts, and would be my preferred target, but only in tournaments.
The Takeaway: Matt Forte doesn’t have Vegas or game script on his side, but a conservative head coach and a good matchup make him relevant in all game types. Alshon Jeffery is a volume receiver who you may want to consider in tournaments, and Eddie Royal is a cheap receiver who should see his fair share of targets as well, but the Chicago passing attack is difficult to trust.
Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans
| Kansas City Chiefs | Houston Texans | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Reliant Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40.5 | 19.75 | -1 | 40.5 | 20.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.1 | 15 | 30 | 11 | Offense | 23.3 | 14 | 27 | 8 | |
| Defense | 17.3 | 4 | 24 | 14 | Defense | 17.6 | 5 | 5 | 27 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Houston Texans | 10 | 10 | 32 | 2 | Kansas City Chiefs | 3 | 3 | 14 | 7 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Maclin | 143 | 85 | 10 | 1,318 | Hopkins | 127 | 76 | 6 | 1,210 | |
| Wilson | 24 | 16 | 0 | 260 | Shorts | 110 | 53 | 2 | 557 | |
| Thomas | 30 | 22 | 1 | 266 | Washington | 68 | 40 | 2 | 647 | |
| Kelce | 87 | 67 | 5 | 862 | Graham | 27 | 18 | 1 | 197 | |
Did a 50-point total and the best quarterback in football get you ready for a fun Week 1 in the NFL? Sorry for the letdown, but this next one isn’t as exciting. The Texans host the Chiefs in a game of teams more known for their work on the defensive side of the ball, and Vegas isn’t ignoring that fact with a 40-point total for this one. The Chiefs are one of the slowest teams in the league in terms of pace, and the Texans have one of the best defenses. Don’t expect great fantasy options in this one.
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Arian Foster (HOU, Injury, Out)
KC Matchup Rating: 3.0
HOU Matchup Rating: 4.0
Kansas City Chiefs
J.J. Watt is the best non-quarterback in the NFL, and the Texans were tough against the run and pass last year thanks to him and his teammates on defense. Combine that with a Kansas City passing game that couldn’t find a way to get a wide receiver into the end zone, and things get ugly in a hurry for daily gamers looking for options in this one. Alex Smith (FD $6,600, DK $6,200) has such a low ceiling that he’s not under consideration, and while Jeremy Maclin (FD $7,600, DK $6,900) is a bit cheaper than he would have been under Chip Kelly, he’s not cheap enough for this anemic offense in a bad spot.
Travis Kelce (FD $6,000, DK $4,800) is a fan favorite in the fantasy community, as “Baby Gronk” has unlimited potential. But facing a team that allowed the second-fewest points to tight ends last year in a game with such a low total doesn’t seem like a wise investment.
Jamaal Charles (FD $8,900, DK $7,900) will face a run defense that ranked in the middle of the pack according to Football Outsiders, and that was slightly tougher than average against running backs from a fantasy points allowed perspective. There aren’t a ton of points to be scored in this game, but if there are touchdowns from Kansas City, Charles is one of the favorites to be the one in possession of the ball as it crosses the goal line. His floor is never certain as he doesn’t get the same volume as other elite running backs, but he’s in play this week, but there are better options to be found.
The Takeaway: The Chiefs are road underdogs against a tough defense with a superstar in the front seven. This should be a competitive game, and might be appealing to watch, but there’s nothing here from a fantasy perspective unless you think Charles breaks a big play or two to differentiate these two teams.
Houston Texans
Home favorites with a low total, the Texans will try to grind out a win and hide the inefficiencies of their starting quarterback Brian Hoyer (FD $6,500, DK $5,100). Typically, that would be the job of Arian Foster, but as he’s dealing with yet another injury, his carries will fall to the backups, led by Alfred Blue (FD $5,800, DK $3,600).
Blue isn’t a particularly good running back, but he’s trusted by his coaches to carry the ball early and often, and will almost certainly see touches at the goal line. Blue is the only healthy returning player on the Houston roster to carry the ball more than once inside the ten last season, converting two of those attempts into touchdowns. He does get a good matchup against the Chiefs, who had the fifth-worst run defense grade in the league according to Pro Football Focus. Kansas City doubled down on struggling run defender Josh Mauga in the offseason, and will likely line him up alongside a returning Derrick Johnson to try and stop the run. Blue is a viable source of salary relief in cash games and as a filler on a tournament lineup, but a player who has a career yards-per-carry of 3.12 carries concerns about upside and potential for GPP-winning point totals.
Back to the passing game, while Hoyer isn’t an option (there are better cheap quarterbacks to roster this week, if you’re going that route), the passing game could hold some value in the form of DeAndre Hopkins (FD $7,800, DK $7,400). Kansas City was a favorable matchup for top wideouts last year, as Antonio Brown, Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas (in two different games), Kendall Wright and Doug Baldwin all found the end zone against the Chiefs. Top corner Sean Smith will miss this game due to a suspension, which leaves the promising but unproven Phillip Gaines and athletic freak rookie Marcus Peters to try to cover Hopkins. I wouldn’t be surprised if Gaines and Peters are both players we avoid in DFS in the future, but I’m not worried this week, and will roll out Hopkins in a lineup here or there.
The Takeaway: Alfred Blue is a source of salary relief who should see plenty of volume, and DeAndre Hopkins will take on inexperienced corners, but there’s not a lot to like in this game with a low total and against a talented defense that underperformed a year ago. Limit your exposure here.
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets
| Cleveland Browns | New York Jets | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | MetLife Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 40 | 18.75 | -2.5 | 40 | 21.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.7 | 27 | 23 | 19 | Offense | 17.5 | 28 | 32 | 6 | |
| Defense | 22.7 | 22 | 16 | 5 | Defense | 21.1 | 16 | 14 | 32 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New York Jets | 26 | 6 | 19 | 28 | Cleveland Browns | 7 | 20 | 15 | 7 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Bowe | 95 | 60 | 0 | 754 | Marshall | 106 | 61 | 8 | 721 | |
| Hartline | 60 | 39 | 2 | 474 | Decker | 114 | 74 | 5 | 962 | |
| Hawkins | 112 | 63 | 2 | 839 | Kerley | 72 | 38 | 1 | 495 | |
| Barnidge | 25 | 13 | 0 | 156 | Cumberland | 42 | 23 | 3 | 247 | |
There are more appealing games coming later in the Grind Down, but we cover every contest every week, and that means dedicating a write-up to the Browns at the Jets. Another game with a 40-point total and a narrow spread, this one should be even uglier than the Chiefs at Texans, as there is decidedly less talent on display in this one. Let’s see if we can salvage anything from this game.
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Josh Gordon (CLE, Out, Suspension), Robert Turbin (CLE, Out, Injury), Dwayne Bowe (CLE, Questionable, Injury), Stevan Ridley (NYJ, Out, Injury), Devin Smith (NYJ, Probable, Injury), Jace Amaro (NYJ, Out, Injury), Geno Smith (NYJ, Out, Injury)
CLE Matchup Rating: 3.0
NYJ Matchup Rating: 4.5
Cleveland Browns
There is nothing to like about the Browns. Josh McCown (FD $6,300, DK $5,200) will start under center for Cleveland, who have no talent at the receiver positions, and not a lot to write home about at running back, either. The Jets weren’t a great pass defense last year, but they’ve added Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie to their defensive backfield, and they’ve got capable pass rushers. You don’t want to invest in this team’s passing game, not even in your 100th lineup in the Milly Maker.
Isaiah Crowell (FD $6,100, DK $4,600) and Duke Johnson (FD $5,800, DK $3,000) will see time behind McCown as the running back, which could be lead to some positive moments behind an offensive line featuring a left tackle to right guard combo of Joe Thomas (13.9 PFF run blocking grade), Joel Bitonio (11.7 grade), Alex Mack (3.0 grade in only 300 snaps before injury) and John Greco (10.8 grade). However, the water is quite muddy when it comes to who will get the most touches, and the Jets were an elite run defense last year according to Pro Football Focus (second-best in the NFL), and from a fantasy points allowed perspective (ninth-best). Johnson’s cheap price on DraftKings makes him an interesting option, but both players are simply tournament plays in a tough matchup.
The Takeaway: A bad quarterback, a low total, and a tough matchup limit pretty much every player’s floor and ceiling, but the running game could hold potential if you can figure out which back will play the bigger role and get the goal line carries. From Week 11 onward last year, Isaiah Crowell received eight of the team’s 14 red zone carries from running backs, and scored on two of those attempts. He’d be my pick.
New York Jets
The Jets are field goal favorites at home against a team that doesn’t figure to put up many points. That sounds like a recipe for investing in the running game, and that leads us to Chris Ivory (FD $6,400, DK $4,100). The Tiffin product struggled down the stretch last season, failing to eclipse 53 yards in all but one of his final nine games. But he opened last season with a bang, gaining 102 yards on 10 carries against the Raiders in a 19-14 win, and he could be in for a repeat performance against the Browns. Football Outsiders DVOA ranked the Browns as the second-worst run defending unit in the league last year, and that translated to a defense that allowed just slightly more fantasy production than the average team against opposing backs. With Stevan Ridley out, Ivory will be the workhorse for the Jets, and in a matchup that looks pretty good on paper, he’s definitely in play this weekend.
I may be the biggest Ryan Fitzpatrick (FD $6,800, DK $5,500) fan on the planet, but I’m not sure there’s any way to justify rostering him this weekend. And with Rich Cimini reporting that Joe Haden is likely to follow Brandon Marshall (FD $7,400, DK $6,600) around when the Jets have the ball, I’m not going to pay for a receiver covered by a DB who allowed only a 53% catch rate last season (per PFF). The Browns had the second-best defense against the pass in 2014 according to Football Outsiders, and the Jets are unlikely to throw enough to create any value in the passing game.
The Takeaway: A favorable matchup on the ground means Chris Ivory is worth a spot in your lineup, but there’s not a lot else to be excited about in this one. The New York defense is definitely in play, as they’re at home in a game with a low total against a quarterback who is prone to turn the ball over.