NFL Grind Down: Week 14
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get three months of Grinders Incentives for free ($75 value).
Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles
| Buffalo Bills | Philadelphia Eagles | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Lincoln Financial Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 47 | 23.5 | 0 | 47 | 23.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.7 | 10 | 29 | 4 | Offense | 23.2 | 15 | 18 | 12 | |
| Opp. Defense | 25.2 | 25 | 25 | 27 | Opp. Defense | 23.2 | 16 | 22 | 14 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 31 | 22 | 32 | 2 | Buffalo Bills | 20 | 19 | 28 | 7 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Watkins | 53 | 34 | 6 | 635 | Matthews | 95 | 61 | 4 | 661 | |
| Woods | 67 | 38 | 3 | 402 | Cooper | 29 | 16 | 2 | 277 | |
| Hogan | 44 | 30 | 2 | 376 | Agholor | 29 | 16 | 0 | 163 | |
| Clay | 76 | 50 | 3 | 519 | Celek | 28 | 21 | 3 | 310 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Karlos Williams (BUF, Doubtful), Ryan Mathews, Zach Ertz (PHI, Probable)
BUF Matchup Rating: 7.0
PHI Matchup Rating: 5.0
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback: The Eagles have allowed 14 total touchdowns to quarterbacks in their last three games, and 19 total TDs in their last five. Tyrod Taylor (FD $7,500, DK $5,400) has three scores in each of his last two games, and a game against New England is the only one this year in which he failed to find the end zone. Otherwise, Taylor is a safe bet for 200 passing yards, 30-40 rushing yards, and a touchdown. This is a nice floor we can pair with the upside of “playing the Eagles” to generate a solid all-around DFS option this weekend. Fire up the Buffalo QB in any format.
Running Game: LeSean McCoy (FD $7,900, DK $6,100) has been one of a select few backs in the NFL to see consistent touches out of the backfield, and yet he’s priced behind the league’s elite runners. McCoy has struggled to find the end zone regularly, but otherwise has all the numbers we look for in DFS. He has 20+ touches in each of his last four games, and has 100 or more total yards in six straight. Karlos Williams (FD $4,900, DK $3,600) has been out, which has helped McCoy stay on the field for a few extra plays, and Williams’ return would take away some value from LeSean. But if Williams remains out, McCoy is a rock solid play against an Eagles defense that ranks 20th in DVOA against the run, and has allowed the 11th-most points to RBs this year. That includes a healthy amount of production in recent weeks from backs as receivers, which boosts McCoy’s value even more on PPR sites.
Pass Catchers: Sammy Watkins (FD $7,200, DK $6,100) has a good matchup this week, as the Eagles rank 29th in defending opposing WR1 according to DVOA. So does that mean it’s a good week to roster Watkins, or will he have another letdown game in a good spot following two strong performances in suboptimal matchups? His volume has been inconsistent, even in competitive games for Buffalo, but the big play possibilities always exist. Charles Clay (FD $5,100, DK $3,500) is the top target for Tyrod Taylor, seeing ten more looks in the passing game than Watkins with Tyrod under center. This is a low-volume offense that gets a pace boost from playing the Eagles, but there’s still reason for concern when targeting pass catchers on this team. The targets between Watkins, Clay and Robert Woods (FD $5,100, DK $3,500) have been split pretty evenly over the last four games, with McCoy getting a healthy amount, as well. There’s just no standout option in this passing game, and with Philly notably struggling to cover opposing team’s top wideouts, I have to suggest Watkins ahead of his teammates, but with a “tournament only” caveat.
The Takeaway: Taylor and McCoy (if Williams is out) are the top plays for the Bills, who should score more points than usual against the collapsing Philly defense and up-tempo Philly offense. Sammy Watkins is in play, but his volume and inconsistency leave him just shy of “elite play” range.
Philadelphia Eagles
Quarterback: Sam Bradford (FD $6,300, DK $5,100) “managed” the Eagles offense, tossing 24 passes for 120 yards and two scores in a surprising win over the Patriots last week. It was his first game back from injury, and he was eased into action thanks to a decent rushing attack and a heroic effort from the defense and special teams. He’ll face a middling matchup in his second game back, as the Bills have plenty of talent on defense, yet rank 18th in DVOA against the throw. The way to beat the Bills is on the ground, not through the air, and the Eagles have no issue handing the ball off. However, when the running game is working, the Philly offense is at its best, and the quarterback has opportunities to succeed. There are much, much safer options than Bradford this weekend, but if you’re looking for a contrarian play for one of the big, top-heavy tournaments or qualifier events, he might be your best bet.
Running Game: With news that Ryan Mathews (FD $4,700, DK $3,400) is likely to return this weekend, I’m not sure there’s an Eagles back to trust. DeMarco Murray (FD $6,700, DK $5,000) was demoted to a lower volume, but has spoken out about his role and may force his way back into the rotation. Mathews will only play if he’s fully fit after recovering from a concussion, and shouldn’t see any setbacks apart from a lack of game action in recent weeks. And Darren Sproles (FD $5,100, DK $3,500) and Kenjon Barner (FD $4,600, DK $3,000) will hang around and take snaps and touches no matter the situation. The Bills rank 31st in the NFL at defending backs in the passing game, which makes Sproles an appealing option if Mathews remains out, but otherwise, I’m not sure there’s a trustworthy play in this very confusing backfield. 
Pass Catchers: Jordan Matthews (FD $6,100, DK $5,500) continues to be the most-targeted wideout for the Eagles, and is the player to stack with Bradford if you go that route in a tournament. He’s the team’s top red zone target by a wide margin, and that means he’ll likely be on the receiving end of any touchdown throws set up by the improving rushing attack. Zach Ertz (FD $5,000, DK $2,600) has reclaimed his role as the top tight end following an injury, but there are still other options lurking to steal targets and vulture touchdowns. Stick to Matthews in this one, especially since he’ll have a preferred matchup inside against slot corner Nickell Robey.
The Takeaway: Bradford to Matthews could be a sneaky tournament stack, but otherwise, there’s not a lot to like or trust about this in-flux Philly offense. Chip Kelly remains an offensive mastermind, but he doesn’t have the talent, and may not have the control of his players, to continue his high-scoring ways from last year.
San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns
| San Francisco 49ers | Cleveland Browns | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | FirstEnergy Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 41 | 19.5 | -2 | 41 | 21.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 14.8 | 32 | 30 | 20 | Offense | 18.0 | 30 | 8 | 32 | |
| Opp. Defense | 28.9 | 31 | 23 | 31 | Opp. Defense | 24.3 | 19 | 27 | 28 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Cleveland Browns | 28 | 27 | 23 | 19 | San Francisco 49ers | 19 | 31 | 24 | 6 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Boldin | 85 | 49 | 2 | 595 | Benjamin | 97 | 54 | 5 | 829 | |
| Smith | 44 | 23 | 3 | 529 | Hartline | 67 | 38 | 2 | 416 | |
| Patton | 37 | 20 | 1 | 255 | Hawkins | 43 | 27 | 0 | 276 | |
| McDonald | 30 | 21 | 2 | 218 | Barnidge | 93 | 60 | 7 | 817 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Vance McDonald (SF, Doubtful), Torrey Smith (SF, Questionable), Gary Barnidge, Travis Benjamin, Brian Hartline (CLE, Questionable)
SF Matchup Rating: 4.0
CLE Matchup Rating: 4.0
San Francisco 49ers 
Quarterback: Is it possible that Blaine Gabbert (FD $6,400, DK $5,100) isn’t terrible? The 49ers quarterback has posted respectable fantasy point totals in a couple of his first four appearances, including showing off the wheels in his most recent start against the Bears. He had two combined touchdowns against the Seahawks and Cardinals, which is to be expected of most quarterbacks, but had two scores against the more mediocre Chicago and Atlanta pass defenses. This week, he’ll get to face a truly terrible defense as the Niners head to Cleveland. Nick Foles and Peyton Manning are the only players to not score multiple times from the QB position against the Browns, who rank sixth in points allowed to quarterbacks. And while 200 yards and two touchdowns isn’t a great return on investment on its own, it would be a lot better if combined with 50 rushing yards, or a rushing touchdown. That’s within the range of possible outcomes for Gabbert, with upside for more against the terrible Browns, so I will consider him for tournaments, but likely end up on more talented options elsewhere in most of my lineups.
Running Game: With a Carlos Hyde return to action looking more and more unlikely, the 49ers can continue to feed Shaun Draughn (FD $6,500, DK $4,800) the ball and let him carry the load out of the backfield. Draughn has double-digit carries in his last four games, and five or more targets in each game, as well. If he gets in the neighborhood of 20 touches against the Browns, who have one of the leagues’ worst run defenses, he could have a huge game. The Browns have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to RBs this season, which includes a few big games through the air. Draughn has such a big role in the San Francisco offense that he’s safe in nearly every matchup, and the upside offered by facing the Browns should not go unnoticed. He’s a core option in PPR formats, and a very strong play in non-PPR games as well.
Pass Catchers: Anquan Boldin (FD $5,900, DK $4,000) may have disappeared a bit during the middle of the season due to injury, but he’s been a mainstay in the offense when healthy this year. Boldin has double-digit targets in his last two games, and is one of the cheapest WR1 you’ll ever find in DFS NFL. However, he’s not a red-zone priority for Blaine Gabbert (over a very small sample, but Boldin only has two red zone targets on the 14 passes thrown near the goal line by Gabbert), and Draughn will likely eat into his upside by catching checkdowns and moving the ball on the ground. Still, I like Boldin in PPR formats for his volume, and he should be featured in the red zone more often, and if that comes to pass, his price won’t stay low for long if he’s being targeted in the end zone in a not-terrible 49ers offense. No other receiver, not even Torrey Smith (FD $6,100, DK $3,500), is seeing any sort of consistent volume. The Niners could be down to their fourth tight end this weekend if Vance McDonald (FD $4,900, DK $2,800) can’t play, as former college football DFS favorite Blake Bell (FD $4,500, DK $2,500) would be the next man up. Bell has already been involved in the offense just a bit over the past couple of weeks, and could be a sneaky punt play if McDonald is ruled out ahead of the game. The Browns aren’t particularly bad against tight ends, but they’re certainly not “good” at defending them, and for a bargain price in an offense with a quarterback who has targeted tight ends quite a bit over the past month… you could do a lot worse.
The Takeaway: Shaun Draughn is a top play in PPR formats, and a pretty good play elsewhere, while Gabbert, Boldin, and the healthy tight end will all be in play in various tournament settings.
Cleveland Browns
Quarterback: Johnny Manziel (FD $6,400, DK $5,000) will get yet another shot at impressing his coaches on the field this weekend, and he’ll get to do so against a 49ers defense that ranks 30th in DVOA against the pass, and that has been terrible on the road defensively this season. The Niners have allowed 12 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on the road this season while only picking up four sacks, while those numbers are five touchdowns, five interceptions and 16 sacks at home. The rushing statistics are similarly slanted toward home, as San Francisco is allowing nearly a full yard per carry more on the road, and have allowed ten rushing scores on the road as opposed to only four at home. Manziel has played much better this year than last, and doesn’t appear to be the huge fantasy risk he was as a rookie. The Niners kept Jay Cutler in check last week, and didn’t allow Russell Wilson to go wild as a runner a couple of weeks ago, both of which are discouraging for the Cleveland quarterback. But Manziel has thrown a touchdown in each of his three starts this year, and went well over 300 yards in his last appearance as a starter. Manziel is an elite tournament play, but not ideal for cash games, as his floor is still fairly low after watching him fail to rush for a ton of yards or any scores so far this year.
Running Game: The 49ers have allowed the most fantasy points to running backs so far this season, including a big day from the trio of Chicago backs a week ago. Prior to that, Thomas Rawls and Todd Gurley had GPP-winning performances, and Shane Vereen and Devonta Freeman had big days as receivers. This sets up well for both Cleveland backs, but figuring out which to roster will be a pain. Manziel started to look to Duke Johnson (FD $5,600, DK $3,800) in the passing game more often after returning to the starting job later in the season, but Isaiah Crowell (FD $5,200, DK $3,400) remains the lead back as a runner. Crowell never had much success on the ground with Manziel under center, so the presence of a mobile QB didn’t really boost the production of the second-year back. I would love to trust Johnson, especially in a matchup with a team that has shown weaknesses in terms of defending backs in the passing game, but his random involvement in the offense makes him a tournament flier at best.
Pass Catchers: Travis Benjamin (FD $5,700, DK $5,000) connected with Manziel for four plays of 50+ yards earlier this season, and appears to be Manziel’s best weapon. But Gary Barnidge (FD $6,200, DK $5,000) has emerged over the course of the season, and was on Manziel’s radar during his most recent start, collecting a touchdown toss from the Texas A&M product. The Niners are not particularly bad or good anywhere in their secondary, which means our selection of pass catchers will be determined by volume and role and not by matchup. Benjamin, if he’s healthy, is the top play in a tournament thanks to his big play upside. The 49ers have given up 16 plays of 30 yards or more in the passing game this season on passes deemed “deep” by the NFL play by play, which means the Browns should be good for at least one play of that length over the top of the defense. Brian Hartline (FD $5,300, DK $3,700) has been seeing consistent volume over the past few weeks due to all the injuries at wideouts for the Browns, and is fairly high on the target list for Manziel. He’s an interesting option in PPR formats, and is much more appealing if Benjamin were to miss out.
The Takeaway: The Browns are a bit of a mess, but they have a favorable matchup against a traveling 49ers defense that ranks as one of the league’s worst. Johnny Manziel is the best option they have available at quarterback, and he’ll have a chance to prove himself in a good spot against a bad team. He and his top passing game targets are tournament plays.
Detroit Lions at St. Louis Rams
| Detroit Lions | St. Louis Rams | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Edward Jones Dome | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | 41 | 22 | 3 | 41 | 19 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 21.1 | 22 | 7 | 31 | Offense | 15.8 | 31 | 32 | 9 | |
| Opp. Defense | 21.4 | 12 | 12 | 23 | Opp. Defense | 26.3 | 28 | 19 | 18 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| St. Louis Rams | 6 | 23 | 5 | 10 | Detroit Lions | 25 | 13 | 13 | 23 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Johnson | 118 | 70 | 7 | 965 | Britt | 56 | 26 | 1 | 445 | |
| Tate | 102 | 67 | 2 | 641 | Austin | 64 | 38 | 7 | 685 | |
| Moore | 41 | 27 | 4 | 321 | Quick | 26 | 7 | 0 | 73 | |
| Ebron | 48 | 31 | 4 | 357 | Cook | 62 | 33 | 0 | 401 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Calvin Johnson (DET, Questionable)
DET Matchup Rating: 3.0
STL Matchup Rating: 3.5
Detroit Lions
Quarterback: Matthew Stafford (FD $7,500, DK $5,800) has very enticing upside, but a terrible floor, and against a talented but struggling pass defense from St. Louis, there’s a very wide range of possible outcomes for the Detroit quarterback. The Rams rank sixth in DVOA against the pass, and have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks on the year, but in recent weeks they’ve given up three touchdown passes each to Jay Cutler and Andy Dalton, and 350 yards and two scores to Carson Palmer. Stafford has two 4+ touchdown performances this year, but otherwise his game log is full of games with 0-2 touchdowns and 200-280 yards, which is a risky floor, but not the worst among the cheaper options this week. The matchup will scare away tournament players, which provides some upside for Stafford this weekend, but he shouldn’t be featured on that many of your rosters.
Running Game: Ameer Abdullah (FD $5,400, DK $3,600) has taken over the backfield in Detroit, with 29 carries in his last two games combined. This isn’t huge volume, as Joique Bell (FD $5,000, DK $3,300) is still hanging around, and Theo Riddick (FD $5,500, DK $3,600) is still taking most of the passing game snaps at running back, but it’s a step up from his volume for most of the season. He hasn’t done much with his increased volume, but he has at least crossed the 60-yard barrier as a rusher, something a Lions RB hadn’t done all season until Abdullah did it in Week 12. The Rams defense allowed a big game to Matt Jones way back in Week 2, and has given up respectable performances to Adrian Peterson, Jeremy Langford, Jeremy Hill and David Johnson over the past month. So despite a ranking of eighth in DVOA against the run, there is damage to be done against the Rams, and Abdullah will be the one getting the first crack at it. Both Abdullah and Riddick (the Rams have allowed 50 or more receiving yards from backs five times this year) are in play in tournaments.
Pass Catchers: Calvin Johnson (FD $7,900, DK $7,400) is no longer priced like an elite wide receiver, but with four touchdowns over his last two games, there’s no denying his ability to find the end zone at an elite pace. His overall stat line wasn’t great against Green Bay, and the Rams have held wideouts in check for most of this season, but it’s impossible to rule Johnson out, and he’s a sneaky contrarian play this week. Golden Tate (FD $6,400, DK $4,500) has seen his volume rise in recent weeks, but his matchup isn’t ideal this week, and I’d trust Johnson when picking a Lions wideout to overcome a tough opponent. The Rams are a bit prone to error when defending tight ends, but no tight end for the Lions can be trusted in daily fantasy.
The Takeaway: Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson are always in play as a stack, and especially against a St. Louis defense that is stumbling as of late. Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick are your other potential Lions picks this weekend.
St. Louis Rams
Quarterback: Case Keenum (FD $5,900, DK $5,000) has been named the starter for the Rams, which tells you all you need to know about this passing attack. The Lions aren’t a great pass defense, but even with that in mind, I’m passing on all Rams wideouts, tight ends, and quarterbacks this weekend. Keenum is just that bad. 
Running Game: Todd Gurley (FD $7,900, DK $6,800) was an appealing target for a few weeks thanks to his incredible volume, even in games that weren’t going the Rams’ way (against Green Bay, for example). But in big blowouts the past two weeks, Gurley hasn’t been played as often, getting only 18 carres combined in his last two. This game against the Lions, however, should be more competitive, and Detroit is just an average run defense. This could be a bounceback game for Gurley, and while the lack of a passing game will bring more players into the box and make things more difficult for him, he will benefit from a boost in volume thanks to a more competitive scoreline. You likely won’t get a better combination of ownership level and potential from Gurley for the rest of the season.
Pass Catchers: Case Keenum will be lucky to complete 20 passes for 200 yards, and even then, his odds of throwing a touchdown are limited. Tavon Austin (FD $5,800, DK $4,100) is the only pass catcher worth considering, because he can take handoffs, screen passes and other short, easy throws for big plays, and as such, he’s viable in tournaments but not easy to trust due to a small volume of targets and touches.
The Takeaway: Todd Gurley will be ignored by quite a few daily fantasy players this week, but offers upside in a more competitive matchup against an average run defense (13th in DVOA, 18th in fantasy points allowed to RBs). Tavon Austin is the only other Ram to consider in an offense that will struggle to move the ball with Case Keenum under center.