NFL Grind Down: Week 16
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
INJURIES – I will update all notable injuries/suspensions on Saturday morning after we have final injury reports
| Indianapolis Colts | Baltimore Ravens | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.5 | 41 | 13.75 | -13.5 | 41 | 27.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 16.1 | 31 | 29 | 22 | Offense | 24.6 | 8 | 30 | 12 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.3 | 4 | 9 | 14 | Opp. Defense | 26.3 | 31 | 29 | 29 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 2 | 21 | 3 | 21 | Indianapolis Colts | 25 | 23 | 26 | 22 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Hilton | 91 | 48 | 4 | 852 | Wallace | 73 | 43 | 3 | 648 | |
| Moncrief | 47 | 26 | 2 | 391 | Moore | 33 | 15 | 2 | 213 | |
| Rogers | 29 | 20 | 1 | 226 | Perriman | 31 | 8 | 0 | 63 | |
| Doyle | 93 | 71 | 3 | 611 | Watson | 63 | 49 | 4 | 421 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Jeremy Maclin (BAL WR) – Doubtful (Knee)
IND Matchup Rating: 3.0
BAL Matchup Rating: 6.5
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback: The week gets started with a couple less than stellar Saturday games, which the sites will use for another two game Saturday slate. Despite the short slate, it’s really hard to make a case for Jacoby Brissett these days. He hasn’t topped 200 passing yards in a game in over a month now, and the Colts are huge road underdogs against a Baltimore team that needs to win to keep the playoff hopes rolling. Even though it is just a two game Saturday slate and the Ravens are missing top corner Jimmy Smith, I am 100% off Brissett here.
Running Backs: After his 36 carry outburst against the Bills, Frank Gore predictably stumbled with just 10 carries for 31 yards last Thursday against the Broncos. The positive news is that he has had extra time to prepare for this game. That’s not enough to get me on board. Baltimore’s defense is healthier up front, and they have some solid run stoppers. Pass.
Pass Catchers: If you are looking for a player from the Colts, T.Y. Hilton makes a lot of sense in GPP formats here. He has monster upside, as we have seen on a few occasions this year, but he also has a very low floor. With Jimmy Smith out for the Ravens, Hilton could showcase that upside here. I am not in love with this passing game because of Brissett’s recent struggles, but Hilton does offer a path to some form of upside. Alternatively, Jack Doyle is a solid TE play with the Ravens struggling against the position for much of the year. It’s just hard to get carried away with a team that has a 16 point team total.
The Takeaway: The best plays from the Colts are T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle. They could offer some upside against a defense that is missing its top defensive back. However, Baltimore is still a large home favorite with a solid all around defense. The Ravens are the top defensive unit on the two game Saturday slate.
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback: This Saturday slate really has some underwhelming quarterback options. Thanks to that fact, Joe Flacco might actually be in play moreso than he usually is. However, that’s more of an “I can stomach it” rather than “I really like it.” Flacco has played better over the last few games, and the Colts have one of the weakest defenses in the league. If he gets 250 yards and a pair of scores, Flacco has done his job, and that’s not out of the question in a home game against a weak squad. That’s as ringing of an endorsement as you will ever get for Flacco.
Running Backs: Alex Collins finally came down from his month-long high last week, scuffling to 12 carries for just 19 yards against the Browns. He played on just 39% of the offensive snaps. He also lost a few goal line looks to Javorius Allen. While those are very much concerns that would keep me off Collins on a full slate, he’s still hard to ignore on the two game Saturday offerings. The Ravens should be able to get out to a lead in this game, making Collins the best bet for production. There is certainly risk, but Collins remains one of the better running backs on the slate.
Pass Catchers: Jeremy Maclin left last week’s game early, and his status is definitely in jeopardy for this one. Mike Wallace was the primary beneficiary with ten targets and a 6/89 line against the Browns. He’s definitely in play on a short slate despite his inconsistency this year. The Ravens lack other game-breaking talent at wide receiver, and Wallace is always capable of breaking a big play. Ben Watson quietly continues to produce decent lines on occasion, and he might also get a bump if Maclin is sidelined. This isn’t an exciting group, but the matchup vaults them into play on the short slate.
The Takeaway: Well, this is as appealing as the Ravens will ever be. On a two game Saturday slate with limited options, we have to consider some players here. The Ravens have a massive 27 point implied team total, which I would venture to say is the highest team total they have had in years. Might this be a time where Joe Flacco can win you some money? What a time to be alive! Flacco, Alex Collins, Mike Wallace, and possibly even Ben Watson can be considered in a great home matchup against a bad Colts squad.
| Minnesota Vikings | Green Bay Packers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -9 | 41 | 25 | 9 | 41 | 16 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.5 | 10 | 12 | 9 | Offense | 22.1 | 17 | 21 | 18 | |
| Opp. Defense | 23.8 | 21 | 24 | 20 | Opp. Defense | 17.3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Green Bay Packers | 26 | 26 | 27 | 6 | Minnesota Vikings | 3 | 1 | 12 | 1 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Thielen | 130 | 83 | 4 | 1,192 | Nelson | 83 | 50 | 6 | 471 | |
| Diggs | 81 | 53 | 6 | 724 | Adams | 118 | 74 | 10 | 885 | |
| Treadwell | 30 | 17 | 0 | 184 | Cobb | 79 | 58 | 3 | 586 | |
| Rudolph | 77 | 55 | 8 | 523 | Kendricks | 26 | 14 | 1 | 167 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Davante Adams (GB WR) – Out (Concussion) / Aaron Rodgers (GB QB) – Out (Sent to I.R.)
MIN Matchup Rating: 7.5
GB Matchup Rating: 3.0
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback: Well, I mentioned in the first game above that the quarterback options are pretty weak on this two game slate. The options available are Brissett, Flacco, Brett Hundley, and Case Keenum. If I would have thrown those options out there before the season started, you probably would have laughed at all of them. However, considering how well Keenum has played since taking over for the Vikings, he is now clearly the cream of this weak crop of signal-callers. Green Bay’s secondary has been ravaged by injuries and was already weak before the injuries hit. As such, Keenum can be considered as a top option in both cash games and tournaments.
Running Backs: Jerick McKinnon and Latavius Murray continue to split snaps in a near even fashion, and McKinnon has actually played on a few more snaps over the last few weeks. This comes despite a massively positive game script last week. McKinnon had a big game against the Packers in their first meeting, while Murray would seemingly benefit if you expect the Vikings to get a lead. Given the snap counts from the last few weeks, even when the Vikings have had the lead, that might not truly be the case. I’m siding with McKinnon this week, especially in tournament formats. Both guys are in play on a short slate that is relatively devoid of talent at the RB position.
Pass Catchers: Adam Thielen has become a top wide receiver in 2017, as he has been one of the biggest breakout stars in the league. He has a nice rapport with Keenum, and I wouldn’t be scared off by one down game a week ago. It’s hard to keep up his kind of pace for every single week. He should consistently be able to get open over the middle against the Packers, and he had nine grabs for 96 yards in the first meeting. He has the highest floor of any wide receiver on this two game slate… by a wide margin. Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph both found the end zone last week and are attractive plays at their respective positions on the short slate. Diggs still has GPP-winning type of upside, and he had a massive game against Green Bay last year. With the current state of Green Bay’s secondary, there is a lot to like here.
The Takeaway: Minnesota is certainly a team we can target on the short slate. Case Keenum and Adam Thielen are top plays at QB and WR, respectively. Both Minnesota running backs are in play on a slate that doesn’t have a lot of options at the position. Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph can also be considered, along with the Minnesota defense. They should win this game comfortably against a Packers team that has given up on the year.
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers brief comeback has ended now that the Packers are out of the playoff picture. The team will smartly sit him for the final two games. Brett Hundley has been wildly inconsistent in his time at quarterback for the Packers. It is certainly telling that the Packers have a lower implied team total at home than the Colts do on the road in Baltimore. It’s certainly not positive for Hundley’s outlook in this game. His upside resides with his ability to run, but this is a really difficult matchup. I’d much rather have Keenum on the other side. The passing skills are too raw to expect Hundley to have any chance of success against a good Vikings defense.
Running Backs: The Packers had to abandon the run early in Week 15 because they fell behind to Cam Newton and the Panthers. Jamaal Williams has been the clear lead back over Aaron Jones of late, but their usage might be somewhat unpredictable moving forward, since these are meaningless games for Green Bay. That is especially true since Williams had just 10 carries for 30 yards against the Panthers. I still expect him to be the lead guy, but this situation is probably one to avoid if you can. Minnesota ranks fifth in DVOA against both the run and the pass, so this is a tough matchup for the entire offense.
Pass Catchers: Davante Adams has been the safety net for Brett Hundley this year, and he has clearly been the lead target. However, he is currently sidelined by a concussion. In addition, Xavier Rhodes did shadow Adams for a good chunk of the first game between these two teams. Jordy Nelson has hit rock bottom and is getting absolutely no separation. I just can’t make a strong case for anyone here. Rhodes would likely shadow Nelson if Adams is out, making Randall Cobb the most appealing of the group of pass catchers. The Packers don’t use the tight end position that often.
FRIDAY UPDATE – Adams is out. This is an ugly spot in what could be cold, nasty winter weather in Green Bay. Brett Hundley is on record as a guy who doesn’t like to play in the cold. There’s nothing to love here.
The Takeaway: Along with the Colts, the Packers are an offense that we really don’t want to target even on the short slates. It’s hard to completely avoid them on the Saturday only contests, but you can clearly avoid them on the full week slates. If forced to pick one player from this team, Jamaal Williams would get the mild endorsement from me, while Randall Cobb is slightly interesting if Davante Adams can’t play.
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Carolina Panthers | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 46.5 | 18.25 | -10 | 46.5 | 28.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 20.4 | 20 | 4 | 27 | Offense | 23.6 | 12 | 26 | 4 | |
| Opp. Defense | 20.4 | 11 | 12 | 5 | Opp. Defense | 24.0 | 22 | 32 | 23 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Carolina Panthers | 11 | 3 | 25 | 9 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 20 | 27 | 32 | 3 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Evans | 115 | 60 | 5 | 839 | Funchess | 102 | 58 | 7 | 781 | |
| Jackson | 90 | 50 | 3 | 668 | Byrd | 15 | 9 | 2 | 74 | |
| Humphries | 69 | 51 | 1 | 478 | Shepard | 33 | 17 | 1 | 202 | |
| Brate | 68 | 42 | 6 | 541 | Olsen | 23 | 13 | 1 | 154 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: DeSean Jackson (TB WR) – Out (Ankle) / Cameron Brate (TB TE) – Questionable (Hip) / Devin Funchess (CAR WR) – Questionable (Shoulder)
TB Matchup Rating: 5.5
CAR Matchup Rating: 7.0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback: The Sunday slate kicks off with an intriguing game between the Bucs and Panthers. I think this could be a sneaky shootout potential game. Although the results weren’t there last week against the Falcons, Jameis Winston did help the team move the ball a lot better than in previous weeks. He completed 27 of 35 passes in the game and threw for almost 300 yards. A key lost fumble by Peyton Barber and a missed field goal ended their chances at a win. In any case, I expect Tampa Bay to go all out to win this game in an attempt to ruin Carolina’s chances at winning the NFC South. It’s not the greatest matchup on paper, but I think Winston is a sneaky play in tournaments in Week 16.
Running Backs: Doug Martin was a healthy inactive for Monday’s game, so he is clearly in the doghouse right now. He got benched after a silly fumble in Week 14, and it’s worth noting that Peyton Barber did not get benched after his fumble on Monday. Barber is clearly the top running back to target from this team, but I don’t expect Tampa Bay to have a ton of success on the ground. The Panthers are allowing just 92 rushing yards per game on the season, which is a top five mark in the league. Barber is a reasonable mid-range option, but I prefer other plays.
Pass Catchers: Mike Evans still doesn’t have a 100 yard game this year, and we are running out of time for him to get one. He did catch a touchdown pass against the Falcons, so that is… well, something. It was just his fifth score of the year. The big target for me is Cameron Brate. We know that Winston loves throwing the ball to his tight ends, as Brate and O.J. Howard have combined for 12 touchdown catches this year. Howard has been placed on injured reserve after getting hurt last week, and his absence should pave the way for Brate to play a ton of snaps. Brate’s price is still very reasonable on every site, and he is my favorite point per dollar tight end play on the entire Week 16 slate.
FRIDAY UPDATE – Brate is banged up right now, so downgrade him a little bit. I’ll still have some shares thanks to the added opportunity with Howard sidelined. DeSean Jackson is also out, making Chris Godwin a very interesting bare minimum priced punt play on a week without a ton of obvious value.
The Takeaway: The Winston to Brate connection is one that I will be targeting heavily in tournament formats, and Brate is cash game viable with O.J. Howard on the shelf. Winston loves throwing to his tight ends in the red zone. Mike Evans is nothing more than a risk/reward GPP play at this point, especially in a less than ideal individual matchup. Peyton Barber is the new #1 running back here, but he is far from a must play on a full slate.
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback: Part of the reason why this game could shoot out is because Cam Newton could have a field day. Tampa Bay has allowed the most passing yards in the entire league, and even Cam might be accurate against this squad. His rushing potential is also a nice boost. However you decide to slice it, Newton is a strong tournament option. I still don’t think I would recommend him in cash games, but it’s very close. The Carolina offense is starting to roll, and Newton threw four touchdowns against a similarly poor Green Bay pass defense last week.
Running Backs: Christian McCaffrey made a big statement with a huge opening drive in last week’s game, and that helped set the stage for a big offensive performance for the team. The Jonathan Stewart fade was probably the easiest call of Week 15, as he had just 11 carries for 27 yards. Unless he breaks a big play or scores a touchdown, he is not going to make value. He’s a zero in the passing game, too. McCaffrey is a solid PPR option in this matchup, but Stewart is still a hard pass. McCaffrey was the leading receiver for the Panthers in the first meeting between these teams.
Pass Catchers: Devin Funchess was perhaps the biggest fantasy disappointment of Week 15, as the aforementioned Christian McCaffrey and a suddenly healthy Greg Olsen took over the primary receiving duties. Assuming Olsen is healthy, his presence will hurt Funchess’ floor and ceiling as we move forward. I’m hesitant to go all in with Olsen after his first big game of the year, but he is certainly in play if you are a believer in his foot being anywhere close to 100%. He’s a gamer, so he will be out there in an important game for playoff positioning. Funchess is over-priced for his role assuming Olsen is rolling, but the matchup helps to offset that a bit. I’m decidedly neutral on him this week. Damiere Byrd burst onto the scene with a pair of touchdown grabs and appears poised to grab the #2 wide receiver role. He’s a reasonable value play, as he remains very cheap everywhere.
The Takeaway: We don’t think of Carolina as the most explosive offense in the league, but they are playing better of late and have a home date with a bad defense. Their 28 point implied team total is one of the highest of the week. Cam Newton is an elite GPP option at quarterback, while Christian McCaffrey is on the radar in PPR formats. Assuming Greg Olsen is healthy, he enters the tight end talk after a breakout last week. Devin Funchess is a risk/reward option with Olsen back in the mix. I am surprised Damiere Byrd didn’t get more of a price boost; he remains a very nice value selection.
| Cleveland Browns | Chicago Bears | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 38 | 15.75 | -6.5 | 38 | 22.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 14.8 | 32 | 24 | 17 | Offense | 16.7 | 28 | 31 | 11 | |
| Opp. Defense | 21.0 | 12 | 11 | 11 | Opp. Defense | 25.9 | 30 | 20 | 7 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Chicago Bears | 6 | 9 | 19 | 12 | Cleveland Browns | 28 | 12 | 14 | 31 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Coleman | 45 | 21 | 2 | 284 | Inman | 30 | 18 | 1 | 230 | |
| Gordon | 28 | 12 | 1 | 201 | Wright | 77 | 50 | 1 | 558 | |
| Higgins | 43 | 22 | 0 | 224 | Bellamy | 37 | 20 | 1 | 297 | |
| DeValve | 53 | 30 | 1 | 383 | Sims | 25 | 14 | 1 | 156 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
CLE Matchup Rating: 2.5
CHI Matchup Rating: 4.5
Cleveland Browns
Quarterback: This game can be described in one word: gross. Will anyone watch this game? If a tree falls in the forest and nobody is around… you know the drill. After weeks of trying to make a case for DeShone Kizer, I just can’t do it anymore. We have seen very little progression from him throughout the season, and turnovers remain a major issue. Yes, his rushing ability is nice, but that’s about where the fun ends. This will likely be a quick moving game, and the Bears will look to control the clock with their running game. No thanks.
Running Backs: Isaiah Crowell looked impressive with a few runs against the Ravens, but he carries tons of risk in a game where Cleveland is a sizable road underdog. Duke Johnson remains the passing down back, and there is no point in trying to figure this out. The risk outweighs the reward with both players. On a full slate, you can easily cross the Cleveland running backs off the list. Cue Rachel Phelps.
Pass Catchers: I don’t love the matchup. I don’t think there will be a ton of plays in this game. I don’t have faith in DeShone Kizer. I don’t know how hard Cleveland is trying these days. I do love Josh Gordon as a potential high upside play, but it’s purely on the talent. The same can go for Corey Coleman. It’s a major dice roll, but there’s always GPP potential with those two.
The Takeaway: It’s impossible to endorse much here. Cleveland has one of the lowest team totals of the week. Gordon and Coleman are deep risk/reward plays in tournaments. The most logical play here, of course, is the Chicago defense. They are a top five unit in Week 16.
Chicago Bears
Quarterback: This definitely profiles as a game where the Bears can get out to a lead and sit on the ball. Relying on Mitchell Trubisky to throw to win games is not what John Fox wants to do. This would seem to be the perfect matchup to let him sling it a little bit, but we haven’t seen that opportunity unless the Bears fall way behind — and that didn’t work out so well last week, as Trubisky made too many mistakes against the Lions. Despite a gaudy yardage total, he did throw three interceptions. Don’t expect that kind of volume again. I’ll gladly steer clear.
Running Backs: Volume SHOULD be easy to come by as long as this game goes according to plan. Chicago checks in as very healthy favorites in this game. However, the Bears are winless as favorites under John Fox. Yes, you read that correctly. They have not won a single game as a favorite since John Fox became the head coach. This excerpt was published in Tuesday’s Chicago Tribune – credit to the story here
“In Fox’s three years as head coach, the Bears are 0-7 straight up when favorite, per Odds Shark. Let’s pause for a moment for effect: The Bears have yet to win a game, let alone cover a spread, in the Fox era when they’ve been favored. Beyond that, six of those seven games were at home, and Chicago has lost the seven contests by an average of 9.1 points.”
Could this be the time they break the spell? If so, Jordan Howard should bounce back from a poor performance. He is truly the most game script dependent running back in all of football. Cleveland has a reasonable rush defense, so you could absolutely play the fade here. Either way you slice it, Howard is not a cash game play.
Pass Catchers: After becoming the Bears’ de facto #1 wide receiver, Dontrelle Inman went something like six quarters without seeing a single target. That’s the nature of this offense. Kendall Wright randomly had a big game two weeks ago and followed that up with 13 targets last week. Josh Bellamy is getting in the mix. Proceed with caution.
The Takeaway: The obvious expectation is for Chicago to control this game via their running game and defense. It will likely be a very boring football game. I can see a 17-10 type game breaking out. Jordan Howard has lots of upside if the Bears can get a lead, but I still think you can get away with fading this whole offense. Chicago’s defense remains my favorite play from this game. I am 100% off the unpredictable passing game.