RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down: Week 17
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use the code “GRINDERS” for the best perks in the industry.
INJURIES – I will update all notable injuries/suspensions on Saturday morning after we have final injury reports
WEEK 17 NOTE – This week is a different animal thanks to playoff scenarios. For each team, I have listed their playoff possibilities in conjunction with their team analysis. This plays a big factor into the matchup ratings this week.
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
| Baltimore Ravens | Cincinnati Bengals | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 41.5 | 19.5 | -2.5 | 41.5 | 22 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.2 | 19 | 11 | 26 | Offense | 19.9 | 23 | 13 | 17 | |
| Opp. Defense | 20.3 | 11 | 10 | 22 | Opp. Defense | 19.6 | 7 | 12 | 2 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 17 | 19 | 2 | 31 | Baltimore Ravens | 13 | 8 | 23 | 10 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Wallace | 113 | 68 | 4 | 984 | Green | 100 | 66 | 4 | 964 | |
| Smith | 97 | 67 | 5 | 765 | LaFell | 96 | 57 | 6 | 795 | |
| Aiken | 47 | 27 | 1 | 306 | Boyd | 78 | 52 | 1 | 564 | |
| Pitta | 105 | 75 | 2 | 638 | Kroft | 12 | 10 | 0 | 92 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: A.J. Green (CIN WR) – Out (Hamstring) / Jeremy Hill (CIN RB) – Questionable (Knee)
BAL Matchup Rating: 6.0
CIN Matchup Rating: 5.0
Baltimore Ravens
Playoff Positioning: Eliminated from playoff contention.
Passing Game: There are two distinctions for teams that are eliminated from playoff contention. First, you have the Type 1 teams that have long been eliminated and are simply playing out the string. Then, you have the Type 2 teams that have recently been eliminated. The Type 1 teams are fine to target this week. The Type 2 teams provide a little more cause for concern, especially if that team is playing a road game in Week 17. Well, the Ravens check all the boxes for the “Type 2” team. They were eliminated from playoff contention with a devastating loss on Christmas Day against the Steelers, and I don’t expect them to show up for much this week. Joe Flacco has played well as the season has drawn to a close, and Steve Smith Sr. has been putting up some solid numbers, too. However, the Ravens are projected for just 19 points in this game, suggesting that Vegas thinks they will pack it in. I agree, and I will be 100% fading the Ravens in Week 17.
Running Game: Kenneth Dixon played on 37% of the snaps against Pittsburgh while Terrance West played on just 30%. The Ravens used an empty backfield on occasion, and fullback Kyle Juszczyk got some touches late in the game. Don’t torture yourself by trying to figure this out for the final game of the season, unless we get word from the Ravens that they plan to use Dixon in a feature back role to see what they have heading into next year. For that reason, I will keep an eye on this, but I don’t expect much to come from it.
The Takeaway: Having just been eliminated from the playoff race last week, I don’t expect the Ravens to show much fight in this game. Their team total is very low, and they are a tough team to figure out from a fantasy perspective even on a normal week. If I make a case for anyone, it would be for Steve Smith in what could be his “final game” narrative. You don’t need to force anyone from this team onto your rosters.
Cincinnati Bengals
Playoff Positioning: Eliminated from playoff contention.
Passing Game: The first half of last week’s Bengals-Texans game was eye-gouging. The Cincinnati passing game is going to struggle without A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert, but at least there is some value to be had. Brandon LaFell played on almost every snap, while Tyler Boyd played on over 70% of the snaps and Cody Core logged a greater than 60% snap rate. All three should be similarly involved this week against Baltimore, but I wouldn’t expect Core to get an absurd 14 targets again. It also is a benefit that Baltimore’s top corner (Jimmy Smith) is dealing with a high ankle sprain, making it unlikely that he returns for a meaningless game. LaFell is the safest option here, and he is very affordably priced on DraftKings at $4,500. If you are going for low-owned GPP upside, I still prefer Boyd over Core. There is too much risk to take a chance on Andy Dalton given the downgrades at receiver.
Running Game: Well, this changed in a hurry. Jeremy Hill has been banged up this year, and he hit rock bottom with seven carries for eight yards last week. He played on just 13 snaps, compared to 49 for “passing down” back Rex Burkhead. With a matchup this week against Baltimore’s top rated DVOA rush defense, there is no reason to even look in this direction.
The Takeaway: I don’t mind targeting one of the cheap wide receivers for the Bengals, as there will be opportunity with A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert out. In addition, the absence of Jimmy Smith hurts Baltimore’s secondary. Brandon LaFell is the safest target, with both Boyd and Core also in play for value. Don’t bother with the inconsistent running game.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
| Houston Texans | Tennessee Titans | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 40 | 18.5 | -3 | 40 | 21.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 17.5 | 29 | 30 | 6 | Offense | 23.8 | 13 | 24 | 3 | |
| Opp. Defense | 24.1 | 19 | 31 | 5 | Opp. Defense | 20.3 | 10 | 2 | 13 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Tennessee Titans | 30 | 3 | 32 | 12 | Houston Texans | 3 | 15 | 5 | 4 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Hopkins | 140 | 71 | 4 | 831 | Matthews | 95 | 56 | 8 | 831 | |
| Fuller | 85 | 44 | 2 | 611 | Sharpe | 81 | 41 | 2 | 522 | |
| Mumphery | 8 | 7 | 0 | 46 | Wright | 43 | 29 | 3 | 416 | |
| Fiedorowicz | 82 | 52 | 3 | 547 | Walker | 94 | 60 | 7 | 765 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Lamar Miller (HOU RB) – Out (Ankle)
HOU Matchup Rating: 5.5
TEN Matchup Rating: 4.5
Houston Texans
Playoff Positioning: Clinched AFC South, locked into #4 seed. Game is 100% meaningless.
Passing Game: I will admit that I fell into the same trap as a lot of people last week. We saw Tom Savage look good for a half against the Jaguars, and we thought he had revitalized the upside of DeAndre Hopkins. We were wrong. This game means absolutely nothing for the Texans, and therefore the Texans passing game should mean absolutely nothing for DFS players.
Running Game: If Lamar Miller sits out again (which would make the most sense), Alfred Blue would be worth a look as a punt play after he dominated the snaps in Sunday’s win over Cincinnati. However, in a meaningless game, it would make sense the team to have Blue split carries with Akeem Hunt in the event that Blue is needed to start in the playoffs. Again, with this game meaning nothing to Houston, we have to be very careful here.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Miller has been ruled out, so bump Alfred Blue into the value discussion.
The Takeaway: Houston is locked into the #4 seed in the AFC, so proceed with caution if you plan to use any Houston players. For what it’s worth, Bill O’Brien says they will “play to win” this week. I’m not so sure I believe him.
Tennessee Titans
Playoff Positioning: Eliminated from playoff contention.
Passing Game: Like the aforementioned Ravens, the Titans sit as a “Type 2” team in terms of squads who are eliminated from playoff contention. In addition, Marcus Mariota left last week’s game with a broken fibula, and he will obviously be out for this one. Matt Cassel is going to be the quarterback in this game. Don’t play Matt Cassel. This also saps the value of the inconsistent wide receivers, though it doesn’t really affect Delanie Walker. He will be a safety net for Cassel and caught a touchdown pass late in last week’s surprising loss to Jacksonville.
Running Game: If DeMarco Murray is a full go for this game, he is a very interesting target at his depressed price point of $7,800 on FanDuel and $6,300 on DraftKings. Murray has struggled a bit over the last month, but Tennessee should lean on the running game with Cassel at the helm. I do worry about Tennessee possibly wanting to give Derrick Henry more work in a meaningless game, however. Keep an eye on the news reports throughout the week and adjust accordingly. Houston ranks in the middle of the pack in DVOA against the run, so this is a reasonably good matchup, especially with Houston having nothing to play for in this game.
The Takeaway: This game has the lowest Vegas total of the week, with an over/under of just 40 points. Matt Cassel is not going to be a savior at quarterback, so the only Tennessee players of note are Delanie Walker and possibly DeMarco Murray, as long as he is going to play his usual amount of snaps in a meaningless game. Be careful here. I won’t play the Houston defense despite a favorable matchup, because their starters may not play the whole game.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
| Chicago Bears | Minnesota Vikings | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 41 | 18 | -5 | 41 | 23 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 17.9 | 28 | 12 | 20 | Offense | 19.3 | 26 | 17 | 32 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.8 | 8 | 4 | 15 | Opp. Defense | 24.1 | 19 | 5 | 27 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 7 | 5 | 4 | 18 | Chicago Bears | 15 | 7 | 27 | 6 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jeffery | 91 | 51 | 2 | 811 | Diggs | 112 | 84 | 3 | 903 | |
| Meredith | 91 | 62 | 4 | 827 | Thielen | 91 | 68 | 5 | 960 | |
| Thompson | 34 | 22 | 2 | 249 | Patterson | 68 | 51 | 2 | 414 | |
| Paulsen | 10 | 3 | 0 | 15 | Rudolph | 117 | 72 | 6 | 723 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Adrian Peterson (MIN RB) – Out (Knee) / Stefon Diggs (MIN WR) – Doubtful (Hip)
CHI Matchup Rating: 5.0
MIN Matchup Rating: 6.5
Chicago Bears
Playoff Positioning: Eliminated from playoff contention.
Passing Game: Minnesota has basically packed it in for the season, and the ridiculous controversy surrounding Mike Zimmer vs. the secondary last week only gets weirder by the minute. However, despite those notes, it is not enough to entice me into playing Matt Barkley on the road here. Barkley threw five interceptions in a home game against a weak Washington secondary last week, so odds are not very high that he will be able to succeed against the Vikings. Assuming there are no more shenanigans, I would expect Xavier Rhodes to shadow Alshon Jeffery. That might leave a few more targets to go around for Cameron Meredith, who has 18 catches on 25 targets over the last two weeks. Meredith has received a price bump on both major sites, so he isn’t a must play here, but he is the strongest option in the passing game for the Bears in the regular season finale.
Running Game: Jordan Howard left last week’s game briefly with an injury scare, but he managed to finish with an impressive 18 carries for 119 yards in a game where the Bears fell behind early. Howard continues to impress in his rookie season, and he logged over 200 yards of total offense when the Bears faced the Vikings on Halloween (153 rushing yards, 49 receiving yards). Assuming Howard is in no way limited by the injury he sustained last week, he is the best play on this team. Minnesota ranks in the middle of the pack in DVOA against the run, and they have generally been weaker against the run than the pass this season.
The Takeaway: We don’t have to get too excited about the Bears, as they are projected for just 18 points as a team in this game. I will avoid the passing game, though you can make a case for Cameron Meredith. Jordan Howard has been impressive all year and was great in the first meeting between these two teams, so he is your preferred option.
Minnesota Vikings
Playoff Positioning: Eliminated from playoff contention.
Passing Game: Sam Bradford has actually picked up his play of late, as he has thrown for at least 290 yards in three consecutive games. That kind of upside is rare for him, as he generally plays it safe and throws a ton of short passes (as evidenced by his total of four interceptions on the season). This game also has a low total at just 41 projected points, so I’m not going to chase the recent performances with Bradford. The same can be said for Adam Thielen, who somehow put up 202 receiving yards last week after logging just one target the week before. His snap count is on the rise, but I can’t justify him when he costs more than Stefon Diggs. This whole unit seems a bit over-priced based on Bradford’s recent surge, so it is likely a hands-off spot for me in a low total game.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Stefon Diggs is doubtful for this game, so you can bump up Adam Thielen significantly here. Although his price has risen considerably, he will be the main passing game option if Diggs is sidelined.
Running Game: Minnesota still ranks last in the NFL in rushing yards per game at 72.1, and they have really struggled to get things going on the ground this year. The offensive line has been a disaster, and they have not established a lead running back all year. Adrian Peterson says he “might” play this week, which only makes this more complicated. If Peterson sits out, you could make a case for a cheap Jerick McKinnon on DraftKings, but even he isn’t the greatest of options with Matt Asiata around to vulture goal line duties.
The Takeaway: I am lukewarm at best on the entire Minnesota team here. They are simply playing out the string, this game has a low total, and nobody seems to stand out as a major bargain. Adam Thielen had his monster week priced into his salary, Sam Bradford feels like he would be the definition of “chasing points,” and the running back situation is a mess.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
| Buffalo Bills | New York Jets | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6 | 44.5 | 25.25 | 6 | 44.5 | 19.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 25.9 | 7 | 31 | 1 | Offense | 16.3 | 30 | 28 | 13 | |
| Opp. Defense | 26.6 | 29 | 18 | 14 | Opp. Defense | 23.2 | 15 | 7 | 28 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New York Jets | 24 | 20 | 14 | 24 | Buffalo Bills | 9 | 28 | 10 | 8 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Watkins | 43 | 24 | 2 | 399 | Marshall | 129 | 60 | 3 | 787 | |
| Woods | 71 | 47 | 1 | 570 | Enunwa | 97 | 53 | 4 | 776 | |
| Goodwin | 63 | 28 | 3 | 423 | Anderson | 71 | 38 | 2 | 544 | |
| Clay | 80 | 54 | 4 | 532 | Bostick | 10 | 7 | 0 | 56 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Sammy Watkins (BUF WR) – Questionable but expected to play (Foot) / Charles Clay (BUF TE) – Questionable but expected to play (Knee) / Matt Forte (NYJ RB) – Out (Knee) / Bilal Powell (NYJ RB) – Questionable (Knee, Illness) / Brandon Marshall (NYJ WR) – Out (Hip) / Robby Anderson (NYJ WR) – Questionable (Hamstring)
BUF Matchup Rating: 5.0
NYJ Matchup Rating: 5.0
Buffalo Bills
Playoff Positioning: Eliminated from playoff contention; fired head coach Rex Ryan on Tuesday.
Passing Game: Speaking of messes, I present to you the Buffalo Bills. They have fired their head coach prior to the last game of the season, and they have benched their starting quarterback for the season finale. This is a business move, as Taylor would have been owed a massive $30.75 million payout if he suffered a serious injury, and the Bills seem to be planning on letting Taylor go when the season ends (as reported by ESPN’s Adam Schefter). They are turning to E.J. Manuel to start this game, and he gets a great matchup against an awful Jets secondary. If you want a minimum priced quarterback for your GPPs that is the true definition of risk/reward, here you go. It’s not for the faint of heart, as Manuel is awful, but the matchup couldn’t be better. The Bills are actually favored in this game and have a reasonable team total of 22 points, so it’s not the worst decision in the world. Sammy Watkins is coming off his best game of the year, while Charles Clay has also looked very good of late. Both of them are reasonable pairings with Manuel in a GPP format, but I wouldn’t touch either guy in cash games.
Running Game: With Le’Veon Bell expected to rest this week, we are limited in our possibilities with the high-end running backs. I don’t mind McCoy, but his price is extremely inflated, and the Jets maintain a rush defense that still ranks 3rd in DVOA. Perhaps the Bills will just let Manuel sling it around in this game for fun. That said, the Jets have quit on their season, and LeGarrette Blount did get some garbage time touchdowns against them last week. McCoy is definitely in play if you want to take that angle.
The Takeaway: Even though the Bills are a mess right now, we don’t necessarily have to avoid them on this weird Week 17 slate. E.J. Manuel and Sammy Watkins are boom/bust GPP options, while LeSean McCoy is the safe cash game play even though his matchup is difficult on paper. It will be really interesting to see how the Bills come out for this game with a new interim coach.
New York Jets
Playoff Positioning: Eliminated from playoff contention.
Editor’s Note: Brandon Marshall has been ruled OUT for Week 17.
Passing Game: The Jets are planning to start Ryan Fitzpatrick in this meaningless game, and I’m not exactly sure why they are doing this. If there was ever a chance to give Christian Hackenberg some playing time, this would seem to be the logical opportunity. In any event, you need to stay far, far away from this disaster of a passing game. Fitzpatrick completed just 8 of 21 passes with no touchdowns and two interceptions against a suspect New England pass defense last week.
Running Game: It doesn’t sound like Matt Forte is going to come back this week, but keep your eye on his status. If he sits out again, you could make a case for Bilal Powell, especially in full PPR formats. Powell has seen a huge chunk of the work in recent weeks, though he didn’t play late in last week’s blowout loss to the Patriots. The problem is that his price has ballooned to $6,200 on DraftKings, and he just doesn’t make sense at that price point. The Jets have called it a year, and there are better options out there on this slate.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Powell is going to “try to play” with a knee injury and an illness. That doesn’t sound good, and he could very easily see limited snaps in a meaningless game. He is avoid material now.
The Takeaway: My plan is to entirely fade the Jets in this game. Despite playing at home against another team that is in shambles, the Jets are four point underdogs in this game. The team is a disaster, and you can even consider the Bills defense despite the coaching fiasco over there.