NFL Grind Down: Week 3
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
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Implied Team Totals
INJURIES – I will update all notable injuries/suspensions on Saturday morning after we have final injury reports
| Los Angeles Rams | San Francisco 49ers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2 | 40 | 21 | 2 | 40 | 19 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 33.0 | 3 | 8 | 21 | Offense | 6.0 | 29 | 29 | 14 | |
| Opp. Defense | Opp. Defense | 9.0 | 5 | 7 | 13 | |||||
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| San Francisco Niners | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Los Angeles Rams | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Watkins | 7 | 7 | 0 | 88 | Garcon | 15 | 9 | 0 | 107 | |
| Woods | 9 | 4 | 0 | 61 | Goodwin | 12 | 6 | 0 | 47 | |
| Kupp | 12 | 7 | 1 | 109 | Taylor | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 | |
| Higbee | 4 | 2 | 0 | 17 | Kittle | 8 | 7 | 0 | 40 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
LAR Matchup Rating: 4.5
SF Matchup Rating: 4.0
Los Angeles Rams
Quarterback: The Thursday night fade worked out very well a week ago, and we have another nice setup for that this week with the Rams and 49ers battling in a nationally televised showdown. Jared Goff has been respectable through the first two weeks, and the Rams look to be much improved with a new coach and a new offensive scheme, but it’s hard to endorse Goff for fantasy purposes on a two game slate. If you are playing the “Thursday/early Sunday” slate that only includes this game and the London game, I like Goff as an option, because the quarterback options on that slate are Goff, Hoyer, Flacco, and Bortles. I would suggest NOT playing that two game slate, but Goff is in play there.
Running Backs: It wasn’t a great season opener for Todd Gurley against the Colts, but he salvaged his day with a touchdown. He scored another touchdown in Week 2, and he actually looked better with his touches in that game against Washington. Even more impressive is the fact that he has eight catches through two games and even caught a touchdown pass last week. That involvement in the passing game is a huge boost for his fantasy stock, and Gurley is certainly a viable option in a favorable matchup against the 49ers. The running backs on both sides of this game are my favorite targets.
Pass Catchers: The Rams appear like they are going to focus on running the football this year, which is bad news for the already inconsistent fantasy value in the receiving corps. They didn’t have to pass much in Week 1 because they jumped out to a huge lead, but Jared Goff attempted only 25 passes last week in a game that was close throughout. Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods combined to see just six targets. Cooper Kupp is the top volume guy here, and he’s a reasonable value play against the 49ers. I can’t take a chance on Watkins until he starts to see more targets. The floor is too low, and the ceiling isn’t all that high at the moment.
The Takeaway: Todd Gurley is my favorite target against a 49ers team that has given up 247 rushing yards through two games. Teams look to attack them on the ground, and the Rams should give Gurley 20+ touches in this one. My confidence in him is renewed after his spry-looking performance last week. I’m not super interested in anyone else, as the volume really isn’t there in the passing game. Jared Goff and Cooper Kupp are reasonable targets on the short two game slate, but I will avoid the passing game on full week slates.
San Francisco 49ers
Quarterback: Brian Hoyer is averaging 146 passing yards per game through two weeks and has nary a touchdown pass to his name. He is struggling with the system and the limited weapons in San Francisco and is nowhere near the fantasy radar at this point. He is one of the worst quarterback options of the week.
Running Backs: As is the case with the Rams side of this game, the running game is where I want to look for options on the San Francisco side. Despite poor quarterback play, Carlos Hyde still looked very impressive against the Seahawks last week, rushing for 124 yards on just 15 carries. He has been on the field for over 80% of the team’s snaps over the first two games, and the starting job is clearly his. The Rams have allowed 304 rushing yards and 4.8 yards per carry so far this year, so the matchup is also ideal. He is my favorite overall play in this game, and I will have plenty of exposure to Hyde on the Thursday lock slates.
Pass Catchers: The passing game has been so abysmal that it is really difficult to trust anyone in this group. However, it is worth noting that the first two games have come against Carolina and Seattle, two teams that possess very strong defensive units. The sledding should be a little easier this week, but that doesn’t make anyone a slam dunk play. Pierre Garcon will finally see a decent matchup, and the volume should be safe for him, but the upside isn’t very high. I don’t mind him in cash games. Marquise Goodwin is an interesting GPP flier for his big play ability, and he has seen 12 targets in the first two games. I would only go there on the short slates.
The Takeaway: Carlos Hyde is my favorite overall play from this game when you see his production from last week, his snap counts, and the favorable matchup against a team that has struggled against the run. The passing game is less viable given Hoyer’s struggles, but you could consider Garcon in cash games or Goodwin in tournaments on the shorter slates that only include a few games.
| Baltimore Ravens | Jacksonville Jaguars | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 39.5 | 21.5 | 3.5 | 39.5 | 18 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.0 | 11 | 28 | 3 | Offense | 22.5 | 10 | 27 | 8 | |
| Opp. Defense | 7.0 | 4 | 4 | 18 | Opp. Defense | 0.0 | 1 | 5 | 14 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 3 | 21 | 4 | 28 | Baltimore Ravens | 1 | 7 | 5 | 18 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Maclin | 9 | 6 | 2 | 87 | Lee | 16 | 7 | 0 | 76 | |
| Wallace | 4 | 2 | 0 | 15 | Hurns | 11 | 9 | 1 | 124 | |
| Perriman | 8 | 1 | 0 | 5 | Cole | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | |
| Watson | 9 | 8 | 0 | 91 | Lewis | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Terrance West (BAL RB) – Questionable (Calf)
BAL Matchup Rating: 4.0
JAX Matchup Rating: 2.5
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback: The Sunday morning game in London is perhaps less appealing than the Thursday game, and that’s saying something. The Ravens are going with a ground and pound approach this year, and they are limiting the pass attempts for Joe Flacco as much as they can. He has thrown for just 338 yards in two games and is not a DFS option against an under-rated Jacksonville pass defense.
Running Backs: Teams will look to beat the Jaguars on the ground, and that is exactly what the Titans did a week ago on their way to 179 rushing yards and three touchdowns. The question becomes – what will this Baltimore backfield look like moving forward? Terrance West was banged up during last week’s game, and his status is very much in question for this week. If he happens to be out or limited, Javorius Allen would become a strong play simply based on volume, while Alex Collins would be the change of pace option. Keep an eye on this as we head closer to Sunday.
Pass Catchers: Ben Watson had eight catches on eight targets for 91 yards last week against the Browns, but don’t get carried away by one performance. He could very well be the best tight end option on the two game slate, but that’s because the available options are next to nothing (again, I wouldn’t suggest playing that slate). The Browns are going to struggle against the tight end position all year, so we need to take that with a grain of salt. No wide receiver on the Ravens has caught more than four passes in a game yet. This team is winning on the strength of its defense, and that’s not going to change now.
The Takeaway: There isn’t a whole lot to get excited about with Baltimore. Javorius Allen is a strong play if Terrance West can’t play in this game, but nobody else is really on the fantasy radar on the full week slates. Ben Watson is regrettably a top tight end option on the two game “Thursday/Early Sunday” slate, which is another indication to avoid that slate.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback: Everything was looking good for the Jaguars after their season opener. They won, convincingly! Blake Bortles is the man! Well, there really weren’t too many people saying that, as the win wasn’t at all due to Bortles’ play. He came crashing down in a Week 2 loss against Tennessee, throwing a pair of interceptions and losing a fumble. Three turnovers aren’t going to get the job done in this league, and now he has to face a Baltimore team that has forced ten turnovers in two games. Run away.
Running Backs: Teams are stacking the box against Leonard Fournette and daring the Jaguars to beat them through the air. That is going to be a problem, especially since the Ravens have a stout run defense as is. Fournette is a fine talent, but his snap count dipped last week, and he is not going to be used in all passing down situations. I prefer other options on this week’s slate, as there are a lot of good running back options out there.
Pass Catchers: Opportunity will be there for the Jacksonville wide receivers with Allen Robinson out for the season. Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns saw a combined 19 targets in last week’s game against the Titans, though a lot of that was in garbage time late in the second half. Blake Bortles is a master at putting up stats in garbage time. This does not figure to be a blowout on either side and projects as possibly the lowest scoring game of the week, so I wouldn’t get excited here. Lee brings more GPP upside, while Hurns is safer for cash games. This isn’t the greatest matchup, so I would look elsewhere except on the short two game slates.
The Takeaway: On slates that include the full week of games, you can write off this whole Jacksonville team. They have a projected team total of just 18 points, and there’s really no merit to anything other than a possible cheap WR play with Hurns or Lee. The Baltimore defense is a strong option in all formats, as they have forced ten turnovers in two games and now get to face turnover machine Blake Bortles.
| Denver Broncos | Buffalo Bills | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | 40 | 21.5 | 3 | 40 | 18.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 33.0 | 3 | 18 | 1 | Offense | 12.0 | 23 | 26 | 7 | |
| Opp. Defense | 12.0 | 7 | 8 | 3 | Opp. Defense | 21.0 | 16 | 9 | 10 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Buffalo Bills | 7 | 2 | 7 | 8 | Denver Broncos | 25 | 5 | 20 | 21 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Thomas | 16 | 11 | 0 | 138 | Matthews | 6 | 5 | 0 | 91 | |
| Sanders | 14 | 9 | 2 | 88 | Jones | 10 | 3 | 0 | 39 | |
| Fowler | 7 | 4 | 2 | 29 | Holmes | 5 | 3 | 1 | 19 | |
| Green | 4 | 3 | 1 | 55 | Clay | 12 | 7 | 1 | 76 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
DEN Matchup Rating: 5.0
BUF Matchup Rating: 3.0
Denver Broncos
Quarterback: Remember when there was a preseason “battle” for the Denver quarterback job between Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch? That is ancient history now, as Siemian is clearly running away with the job. Everyone knew that Siemian gave them the best chance to win, and he is proving it on the field. He is coming off an impressive four touchdown performance in Denver’s demolition of Dallas last week, and he is being given more freedom on offense. He’s nowhere near elite status, but he’s certainly trending in the right direction. I wouldn’t try to force him into your lineups in a road date with Buffalo.
Running Backs: C.J. Anderson has been one of the biggest surprises of the early part of the season, and his snap count rose to a healthy 73% in last week’s game. The Bills have been stout against the run so far this year, but they have also faced a pair of suspect running games in the Jets and Panthers. Anderson is coming off a game where he logged 28 touches and 150+ total yards, and he scored a touchdown on both a run and a reception. If he is going to be involved in the passing game, Anderson’s value will skyrocket. He’s a fine play this week, as the price tags of $6,900 on FanDuel, $5,800 on DraftKings, and $10,900 on FantasyDraft are more than reasonable given his surge in production.
Pass Catchers: It’s always hard to decipher between Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas, but we do know that they will continue to dominate the targets in Denver. Both had six catches on eight targets last week, but it was Sanders who grabbed the touchdowns. There will be unpredictability from week to week, so I wouldn’t read too much into that. As usual, both guys are appealing GPP targets, and nobody else is really in play from this group. I would side with whoever is the cheaper of the two on your respective site of choice.
The Takeaway: C.J. Anderson looked really good last week and is a strong play in all formats, as he is still priced affordably on every site. Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are in play as risk/reward GPP options, as they will continue to dominate the targets from Trevor Siemian.
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback: Tyrod Taylor is a low upside fantasy option even in the best matchups, and now he has to go up against a team that has consistently been one of the best passing defenses in football with their current roster. He is an easy fade in all formats.
Running Backs: The primary appeal with regard to LeSean McCoy is his obvious volume combined with an ability to produce in the passing game. While his rushing attempts were a disaster last week (twelve carries for nine yards), he contributed a 6/34 line on seven targets, so that’s an added 9.4 points in full PPR formats. That is no small figure. The narrative is out there that you can run to beat the Broncos, though they smashed those truthers into the ground by dominating Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys last week. I get the rationale for possibly targeting McCoy here, but there is risk at his elevated price point. He is not near the top of my point per dollar rankings this week, but McCoy can be looked at as a low-owned GPP option.
Pass Catchers: If anyone is able to produce in the passing game against the Broncos, it is likely going to be LeSean McCoy on short passes. I am not going to trust any of the fringe-worthy wide receivers against an elite secondary, and Charles Clay is not on my tight end radar this week.
The Takeaway: I have as little interest as you could possibly have in the quarterback or receivers here, with LeSean McCoy being the only viable option in a reasonable matchup against the Denver front seven. Even he is only a deep GPP option, at best.
| New Orleans Saints | Carolina Panthers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 47.5 | 20.75 | -6 | 47.5 | 26.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 19.5 | 14 | 3 | 26 | Offense | 16.0 | 20 | 21 | 16 | |
| Opp. Defense | 3.0 | 2 | 10 | 5 | Opp. Defense | 29.0 | 25 | 29 | 24 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Carolina Panthers | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | New Orleans Saints | 30 | 27 | 30 | 26 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Thomas | 18 | 10 | 0 | 134 | Benjamin | 13 | 7 | 0 | 102 | |
| Ginn | 11 | 7 | 0 | 77 | Funchess | 9 | 6 | 0 | 88 | |
| Coleman | 9 | 6 | 1 | 95 | Shepard | 4 | 3 | 1 | 59 | |
| Fleener | 10 | 8 | 2 | 87 | Dickson | 4 | 2 | 0 | 26 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Cam Newton (CAR QB) – Questionable but likely to play (Shoulder)
NO Matchup Rating: 5.0
CAR Matchup Rating: 8.5
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback: The alarm bells are going off with Drew Brees playing on the road. Brees on the road! Brees on the road! This is also a very difficult matchup against a Panthers squad that has allowed just 273 passing yards and 5.3 yards per attempt through the first two games of the year. This doesn’t seem like the best spot to overpay for Brees, as the risk outweighs the potential reward. If spending up at quarterback, there are better options on the table.
Running Backs: The Saints have a three-headed running back “monster” (intentionally in quotes) of Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara, and Adrian “I didn’t sign up for nine snaps” Peterson. I have no idea how the week-to-week usage is going to shake out, but it was Ingram that got the most snaps last week. Ingram played on 36 snaps, while Kamara and Peterson combined for less than that total. As such, Ingram seems to be the clubhouse leader right now, but I am not putting a ton of stock into that. This Carolina defense is very good, and I have no interest in messing with this group.
Pass Catchers: The matchups just haven’t been there for Michael Thomas yet. We have seen him face two relatively tough matchups so far, and it doesn’t get any easier against the Panthers. Better matchups await, so be patient here. The good news is that he did see ten targets a week ago. With Willie Snead out of commission for another week, Brandon Coleman might have one more week of relevance as a low cost option. Nobody is a must play against an elite defense, and Coby Fleener has just a 50% snap rate through two weeks.
The Takeaway: I am virtually off the entire Saints team in this spot. This is a road game against one of the best defenses in the league, so there’s no use overpaying for Brees or trying to find a cheap value option that is more likely than not to bust. Brandon Coleman would be my favorite value play if I had to choose one, though.
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback: Carolina wins the “get to play the Saints” lottery of the week, and this should be the perfect recipe for them to get their sputtering offense rolling. It’s fair to question whether Cam Newton will ever be anything close to the player he once was, but the upside is certainly there against the Saints and their nonexistent defense. New Orleans has allowed a league worst 777 passing yards through two games and has little to no talent in the secondary with Delvin Breaux out. It’s still fair to question whether or not Newton is cash game worthy, but there is absolutely a lot of GPP appeal here.
Running Backs: I am planting my flag squarely on the Christian McCaffrey train this week. While his numbers have been admittedly poor through two weeks when attempting to run between the tackles, this is the type of matchup where he can make his athleticism count. With Greg Olsen out for an extended period, McCaffrey should be counted on for a few extra targets, and he has already seen 12 targets in two games. He has also played on a healthy dose of snaps, so the volume shouldn’t be a concern. McCaffrey is going to make his fantasy impact with big chunk plays, and I could easily see him getting a few of those against the Saints. It could very well come back to bite me, but McCaffrey is a fantastic tournament option in a great matchup. If he can’t do anything here, there is every reason to be concerned.
Pass Catchers: Greg Olsen is going to be shelved for a while, and Kelvin Benjamin is already banged up. With the other receiving options being the likes of Devin Funchess and Ed Dickson, you can see why Christian McCaffrey has more appeal this week. Benjamin will likely be massive chalk this week, only for him to let us down for the 1,000th time in less than 1,000 career games (sarcasm, yes). When is the last time Benjamin has come through as a chalk play? Again, if there was a game for that to happen, this would certainly be the right matchup. Funchess is also a nice value, despite the fact that I just poked fun at him. He saw seven targets last week and should be able to meet value against the Saints.
The Takeaway: You probably need a piece of the Carolina offense this week, as uncomfortable as that may sound. Newton, McCaffrey, and Benjamin are all upside targets that can be used in any format, with McCaffrey carrying the most risk/reward appeal. Devin Funchess can be used as a value piece and might see a few more targets with Greg Olsen sidelined. I can’t get on board with Ed Dickson as a value play at tight end.