NFL Grind Down: Week 7 - Page Two
| New Orleans Saints | Green Bay Packers | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6 | 48 | 27 | 6 | 48 | 21 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 29.0 | 4 | 8 | 14 | Offense | 24.5 | 10 | 10 | 26 | |
| Opp. Defense | 22.5 | 18 | 11 | 22 | Opp. Defense | 23.2 | 21 | 28 | 11 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Green Bay Packers | 13 | 22 | 18 | 1 | New Orleans Saints | 21 | 19 | 25 | 13 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Thomas | 43 | 28 | 2 | 321 | Nelson | 38 | 25 | 6 | 290 | |
| Snead | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | Cobb | 34 | 26 | 1 | 246 | |
| Ginn | 20 | 15 | 2 | 212 | Adams | 49 | 28 | 5 | 339 | |
| Fleener | 16 | 11 | 2 | 129 | Bennett | 35 | 22 | 0 | 216 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Willie Snead (NO WR) – Questionable (Hamstring) / Aaron Rodgers (GB QB) – Out (Collarbone)
NO Matchup Rating: 7.5
GB Matchup Rating: 5.5
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback: Although it is never easy to target Drew Brees on the road, this is a spot where we certainly can give him a look despite the road matchup. Green Bay does not possess a strong defensive unit, and I expect the Packers to come out a little flat in this game after losing their star quarterback in Aaron Rodgers. The Packers are not allowing a ton of yardage through the air, but games against Mike Glennon and Case Keenum have skewed those results through five weeks. Facing Drew Brees is a different story, and the Packers had no answer for Dak Prescott a couple weeks ago. Brees will carry low ownership with the road narrative and the fact that he disappointed a lot of people last week thanks to Mark Ingram and the defense doing some heavy lifting. I don’t think you have to pay up for him in cash games, but there’s plenty of GPP appeal with Brees in this spot.
Running Backs: Mark Ingram was chalk city as a popular value play last week, and he came through with perhaps the biggest performance of his NFL career. Adrian Peterson moving on to Arizona could end up being the best thing for both parties. Alvin Kamara will continue to have a role, but Ingram played on two-thirds of the snaps last week. Ingram is the favorite for early down and goal line work and actually got a healthy dose of passing game action last week. Even though his price has risen quite a bit, I have no qualms with firing up Ingram in a decent matchup. If the Saints happen to get a lead in this game, that also bodes well for a heavy workload come the second half.
Pass Catchers: It came as a surprise to me that Michael Thomas got a lot of love heading into a matchup against a very tough corner in Darius Slay last week. While opinions are mixed on how good Slay is as a “shut down” cornerback, there is no doubt that he’s at the very least a talented player. I have more respect for him than most, and I had no exposure to Thomas in that game. As such, I am itching to get a chance to roster him in a favorable matchup. While many will be hopping off the train this week, I’ll be boarding for the first time. A big game is coming, and the Packers rank just 22nd in DVOA against #1 wide receivers so far this year. This will be the best matchup Thomas has seen, and I am fully expecting his best performance of the year. Ted Ginn has been solid for the Saints and is coming off a solid game, so he is in play as well, especially as a GPP pairing with Brees. Willie Snead played on less than 30% of the snaps in his season debut, so he is off the radar until we see him get a larger role.
The Takeaway: The Saints are an intriguing team this week. While I certainly don’t expect them to score 50 points again, i do like the way they match up with a Packers team that might not be in tip-top shape emotionally heading into this game. Drew Brees isn’t generally an elite target on the road, but I don’t mind him in tournaments this week. The top plays are Mark Ingram and Michael Thomas, and both of them are in play for all DFS contest formats. I am expecting a huge game from Thomas, and I am licking my chops at a shot to get him at low ownership after he let some people down last week.
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback: Brett Hundley will be making his first career start with Aaron Rodgers on the sidelines for the foreseeable future, and it is no secret that Hundley is not even comparable to Rodgers. There is a reason that the Vegas odds for this game moved by about 10 points after Rodgers went down. Hundley is by no means a horrible player, but he won’t be able to escape the comparisons, and that’s not fair to him. From our narrow perspective of DFS, it would be foolish to completely dismiss Hundley entirely, especially at his cheap price tag across the industry. Hundley will not cost you much on FanDuel, DraftKings, or FantasyDraft. He could show us some point per dollar upside, or he could flame out like Kevin Hogan did last week. I don’t think you have to risk this in cash games, but if you want to spend up at the other skill positions, there is a method whereby this might work in tournaments. The Saints lack talent in the secondary and are not as good as their early season numbers suggest, but that doesn’t automatically mean Hundley will be able to cash in.
Running Backs: After a huge game two weeks ago against the Cowboys, Aaron Jones continued to lead the Green Bay backfield last week against Minnesota. He out-snapped Ty Montgomery 43 to 20, though Montgomery was still clearly bothered by his ribs and was wearing a flak jacket. Montgomery is practicing in full this week and appears poised for a larger role. This will still shake out as some sort of time share, though the volume should be there in total with the Packers looking to keep the pressure off Hundley. Both guys are risk/reward GPP plays at best, though the matchup isn’t bad against a New Orleans team that is allowing over 100 yards per game on the ground and ranks 24th in DVOA against the run.
Pass Catchers: You can take this to the bank right now: All the players from this unit will absolutely be under-owned this week. Brett Hundley will not support the same kind of volume that Aaron Rodgers did. While I will be cautious with my exposure here, I still have some interest in Jordy Nelson. He will continue to be the first read on a ton of passing plays, and we often see younger quarterbacks focus on the first read more often. The Green Bay receivers can most certainly be avoided if you don’t trust Hundley under center, but there’s GPP appeal at low ownership.
The Takeaway: This will not be the same offense sans Aaron Rodgers, and questions seem to be greater than answers at this point. How good will Brett Hundley be? Can he keep the team in the playoff race? How will the snaps shake out at running back as Ty Montgomery returns to full health? This renders almost the whole offense as GPP-only, but I do like the Hundley/Nelson combination in tournament formats. It will be very interesting to see how this offense functions in Week 7, and I will be sure to watch this game to get a feel for what to expect going forward.
| Jacksonville Jaguars | Indianapolis Colts | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | 44 | 23.5 | 3 | 44 | 20.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 26.0 | 8 | 30 | 1 | Offense | 19.8 | 20 | 25 | 20 | |
| Opp. Defense | 32.5 | 30 | 29 | 17 | Opp. Defense | 18.3 | 7 | 3 | 29 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 28 | 29 | 23 | 23 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 1 | 20 | 3 | 18 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Lee | 40 | 20 | 0 | 291 | Hilton | 41 | 25 | 1 | 485 | |
| Hurns | 30 | 21 | 2 | 244 | Moncrief | 28 | 16 | 1 | 241 | |
| Cole | 18 | 6 | 0 | 47 | Aiken | 28 | 10 | 0 | 90 | |
| Lewis | 17 | 5 | 3 | 76 | Doyle | 34 | 24 | 1 | 213 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Leonard Fournette (JAX RB) – Questionable (Ankle)
JAX Matchup Rating: 6.5
IND Matchup Rating: 3.5
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback: The beat goes on with Blake Bortles. Jacksonville is a much improved football team this year, but it is not because of improved play from the quarterback position. He is completing just 58% of his passes for the season and has yet to top 250 passing yards in any game. I suppose you could make a case for Bortles having to do more if Leonard Fournette happens to sit this game out, but even that is a stretch at this point. Bortles can safely be avoided in all formats.
Running Backs: This situation obviously hinges upon the health status of Leonard Fournette. He suffered a minor ankle injury late in last week’s game against the Rams, but the team indicated that he could have returned to the contest. He did not practice on Wednesday, but there does not appear to be a huge cause for concern at this point. Keep an eye on this. If Fournette is able to go, he is obviously on the fantasy radar. He is getting a ton of work, as he ranks second in the league in carries and second in the league in rushing yards. Although the Colts have been stronger against the run this year, they did show some weakness last week against Tennessee, and they are playing this game on a short week. I will update Fournette’s status in this section on Saturday.
Pass Catchers: This group isn’t necessarily as poor on the surface as some of the ones on the previous page, but they are collectively hampered by the ineffectiveness of Bortles under center. Marqise Lee has been the team’s top receiver, but he has caught just 20 of 40 targets and is by no means a safe option. I’m not going to bother with anyone here this week, as there are other options I would rather gravitate toward on a full slate.
The Takeaway: Jacksonville is actually a three point road favorite in this game, which suggests that I might be under-rating their fantasy potential to some degree. Assuming Leonard Fournette is a full go for this game, he is obviously the strongest play the Jaguars have to offer. If I absolutely had to choose someone from the passing game, Marqise Lee would be the guy I reluctantly give the nod to.
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback: In what is becoming a common theme, we don’t want to pick on the Jacksonville pass defense. Although they lost last week against the Rams, they allowed Jared Goff to throw for just 124 yards, and they have still allowed just four touchdowns on the year. They have logged 10 interceptions and are allowing just 166 passing yards per game. They also have a league high 23 sacks. Don’t get cute with Jacoby Brissett this week. He doesn’t have enough of a resume yet to even be in the fantasy conversation against an elite pass defense.
Running Backs: While we don’t want to target passing games against the Jaguars, we can certainly give a look to running games. Jacksonville owns the best pass defense DVOA in the league but the second worst rush defense DVOA, and the narrative is out there. You want to run, run, and run some more against this squad. Marlon Mack is one of the most intriguing GPP plays of the week. Robert Turbin is injured and will miss the rest of the season, which should open up more playing time for the impressive young Mack. He has already busted three 20+ yard runs this season despite limited playing time, and it’s clear that Frank Gore is not the answer at this stage. If Mack can find the field on around 50% of the snaps this week, he is a screaming value play. It’s a close call in cash games, and I could argue eitehr side. Don’t bother with Gore at this point.
Pass Catchers: At this stage, you can always make a case for T.Y. Hilton as a tournament play. He has shown nice rapport with Brissett at times, but his game log has very much been up and down this year. I can’t endorse paying a premium for him against Jacksonville’s elite corners. There’s also no reason to consider the fringe wide receivers like Donte Moncrief or Kamar Aiken in this spot. I suppose you could make a case for Jack Doyle at tight end, but there are six or seven tight ends that I like better than him for DFS purposes this week. Pass.
The Takeaway: This game profiles as one of the least exciting games of the day. We have a low Vegas total of 44 points, and the Colts are three point underdogs. Marlon Mack is my favorite play here, especially in tournament formats, as he should get more work given his impressive performances so far this year combined with the season-ending injury to Robert Turbin. You could also play the Jaguars defense, which has been generating a lot of turnovers and sacks in the early part of the season. The fact that a Blake Bortles – led Jaguars team is a road favorite here is telling with regard to how good their defense is.
| Arizona Cardinals | Los Angeles Rams | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | 47 | 21.75 | -3.5 | 47 | 25.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 19.8 | 20 | 3 | 32 | Offense | 29.8 | 1 | 12 | 13 | |
| Opp. Defense | 23.0 | 20 | 13 | 27 | Opp. Defense | 26.3 | 27 | 25 | 9 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Los Angeles Rams | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Arizona Cardinals | 26 | 6 | 28 | 22 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Fitzgerald | 62 | 42 | 3 | 465 | Watkins | 24 | 15 | 2 | 222 | |
| Brown | 27 | 12 | 2 | 168 | Woods | 37 | 22 | 0 | 322 | |
| Brown | 36 | 18 | 1 | 274 | Kupp | 32 | 19 | 2 | 265 | |
| Gresham | 20 | 14 | 0 | 122 | Higbee | 24 | 11 | 0 | 166 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Andre Ellington (ARI RB) – Questionable (Quad)
ARI Matchup Rating: 5.0
LAR Matchup Rating: 5.5
Arizona Cardinals
Quarterback: After getting out to a huge lead last week on the strength of a 13-for-13 passing start from Carson Palmer, the Cardinals nearly blew a huge lead to a Buccaneers team that lost its starting quarterback in the middle of the game. Palmer is largely viable for DFS purposes on the strength of his volume, and the Cardinals almost blew that game because they dialed back Palmer in the second half (he attempted just 22 passes in the contest). I think they will remain aggressive this week after that near collapse, but the Rams boast a solid pass rush and secondary. If you want to make a case for Palmer based on the usual volume, you can certainly do so, but just know that this matchup will likely cause a bit of a dip in efficiency.
Running Backs: I do not mean to be a party crasher, but let’s pump the brakes on the Adrian Peterson hype train just a little bit. This is still a bad offensive line, and he isn’t going to find the sledding that easy most of the time. In addition, the Cardinals jumped out to a huge early lead last week, which helped Peterson stay on the field instead of Andre Ellington. The Cardinals will still use Ellington in clear passing situations, especially since Peterson has never really shown himself to be much of a receiving threat. The price tag is still fair on every site, which is nice, but I am not sold on the workload. Peterson is definitely a player that I will be underweight on compared to the field this week. This is a classic case of point chasing. I will gladly admit that I am wrong if he keeps it up for a few more weeks, but I need to see more than a one game sample here.
SUNDAY AM UPDATE – With Ellington out for Arizona and Bruce Arians saying he wants to give Peterson 25+ touches, I am upgrading Peterson a bit here.
Pass Catchers: Larry Fitzgerald had a fine game against a weak Tampa Bay secondary last week, but the Rams will present more of a challenge. At his current price point, I can see leaving him on the table, or I can make a case for using him. He still has a safe floor for cash games, and that is probably the best format in which to use him. John Brown caught a touchdown last week and played on 70%+ of the snaps for the second straight week, and he remains a strong option in tournament formats. Outside of those two, I don’t really like anyone from this Arizona group of pass catchers.
The Takeaway: The Adrian Peterson resurgence is being over-hyped, and I’ll gladly fade him at high ownership in tournaments this week. We can’t suddenly forget that Arizona has a poor offensive line and was averaging less than three yards per carry as a team prior to Peterson’s arrival. This isn’t suddenly going to become a dominant rushing offense. Let’s see more out of Peterson before jumping to conclusions. The passing game will likely see more volume this week, though the matchup isn’t all that great. Nobody is a slam dunk play, but Larry Fitzgerald is a reasonable cash game option, while I still like John Brown in tournaments.
Los Angeles Rams
Quarterback: After the first few weeks of the season, the hype around this Rams offense in a new system was reaching new heights. It was reaching Adrian Peterson type hype levels. That’s a pretty high bar. Jared Goff has regressed quite a bit in some difficult matchups since that hot start, and I generally don’t like to take quarterbacks against the Cardinals. While Arizona has surprisingly struggled in pass defense so far this season, this still doesn’t profile as the best time for Goff to get back on track. The Rams are more than happy to ride Todd Gurley when they can, and rostering Goff this week feels like getting a little too cute. I’ll pivot to other options.
Running Backs: The Rams did not give Todd Gurley enough touches two weeks ago against the Seahawks, and they rectified that last week. Gurley logged 23 carries for 116 yards in a solid road win over the Jaguars, and he is clearly the guy in this backfield. There is nobody pushing him for playing time, and you don’t see those kind of situations very often in today’s NFL. Gurley is a solid volume-based running back choice this week, but I don’t love the upside against the fourth ranked rush defense DVOA. Arizona is allowing just 3.3 yards per carry on the season. I think you can do better if you are spending up at the position, but Gurley does have a reliable floor for cash games, if that interests you.
Pass Catchers: Over the last few weeks, the most targeted pass catcher in Los Angeles has been… Robert Woods? Straight out of the strange but true files, Woods has seen 15 targets over the last two weeks, but his yardage totals leave a lot to be desired, and he still hasn’t scored a touchdown on the year. It’s hard to get excited about anyone from this unit on a full slate or even the early only slate.
The Takeaway: This is a tough spot. The numbers say the matchup is better for the passing game, but we generally don’t think of Arizona as a poor secondary. Also, the biggest DFS playmaker for the Rams is the running back in Todd Gurley. I will not have a ton of exposure to the Rams side of this game, but Gurley is the only player that draws any interest on my end.
| New York Jets | Miami Dolphins | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 38 | 17.5 | -3 | 38 | 20.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.2 | 26 | 22 | 18 | Offense | 12.2 | 32 | 32 | 27 | |
| Opp. Defense | 16.8 | 3 | 18 | 4 | Opp. Defense | 21.7 | 13 | 12 | 26 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Miami Dolphins | 8 | 11 | 15 | 24 | New York Jets | 18 | 28 | 14 | 20 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Anderson | 41 | 18 | 1 | 296 | Landry | 57 | 38 | 2 | 272 | |
| Kearse | 32 | 26 | 3 | 299 | Parker | 28 | 19 | 1 | 236 | |
| Kerley | 20 | 19 | 1 | 193 | Stills | 24 | 14 | 2 | 163 | |
| Seferian-Jenkins | 29 | 23 | 2 | 152 | Thomas | 21 | 12 | 0 | 108 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: DeVante Parker (MIA WR) – Doubtful (Ankle)
NYJ Matchup Rating: 3.5
MIA Matchup Rating: 5.0
New York Jets
Quarterback: They aren’t who we thought they were! Perhaps that can be the Jets’ slogan for the 2017 season, as they are proving to be a lot more pesky than everyone thought before the season started. There were rumblings of an 0-16 campaign. Instead, the Jets won three games in a row after a pair of losses, and they nearly made it four in a row as they battled the Patriots tough last week. I’m still not sold on Josh McCown being an above average fantasy producer on a team with a lack of talented receivers, but he has put up some solid games so far. This isn’t a bad matchup, but I can’t simply flip a switch and endorse McCown at the moment. Regression is coming at some point, but feel free to play him if you disagree with my take. It is worth noting that the Dolphins are much weaker against the pass than the run.
Running Backs: Bilal Powell is still not practicing as of Wednesday, so it appears that we are shaping up for another week of Matt Forte and Elijah McGuire in the Jets’ backfield. A lot of smart people expected McGuire to take over last week, but that did not end up being the case. Forte played on more snaps and had 81 total yards in the game on 17 touches, so he should continue to be the primary back until we see otherwise. That production included eight catches, so Forte is still being utilized in the passing game with Powell sidelined. He is nowhere near a must play against a Dolphins defense that is stronger against the run, but you can certainly make a case for Forte as a mid-range option.
Pass Catchers: This group continues to play above expectations at times, but the inconsistency is an issue. No pass catcher for the Jets is averaging more than 50 receiving yards per game, and it’s difficult to trust Jeremy Kerley, Robbie Anderson, or Jermaine Kearse even in a nice matchup. Miami ranks 30th in DVOA against both #1 and #2 wide receivers. Perhaps the biggest surprise for the Jets has been tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins. After years of not utilizing the tight end position, the Jets are changing their tune with ASJ. He had one touchdown last week and should have had two except for an inexplicable reversal of his second touchdown via replay review. The problem is that the Dolphins have actually been respectable against tight ends, so it’s hard to endorse ASJ this week. There are quite a few other mid range tight ends that I like better.
The Takeaway: Vegas still isn’t buying this Jets team, as their team total of 17 1/2 points is right there with the lowest marks of the week. You could fade this whole team and really not miss out on anything, and that is likely what I will end up doing. Matt Forte is a reasonable option if Bilal Powell is out again, and you can make a case for a cheap pass catcher against a weak Dolphins secondary, but nobody is an elite play here. A case can certainly be made for using the Dolphins defense at home.
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback: The Dolphins have won their last two games, but it has not necessarily been due to the play of Jay Cutler. He has logged just 243 total passing yards in the two victories, and he has a quarterback rating of just 75.2 so far this season. He has been so bad that the fans are clamoring for a change at quarterback. There’s no reason to go here in any format.
Running Backs: With how bad Cutler has been, the team realizes that the best chance to win likely resides on riding the legs of Jay Ajayi. He carried the ball a season high 26 times last week against the Falcons, and he turned those carries into a very solid 130 yards. He still does not have a touchdown this year, but that has just been a tough run of variance. A score is coming at some point, and it could happen this week against a Jets team that is allowing almost 140 rushing yards per game. Ajayi is one of my favorite point per dollar plays of the week, and I will happily target him in all DFS contest formats in Week 7.
Pass Catchers: DeVante Parker is still not practicing, and it appears like he is headed for a second straight absence this week. That does increase the opportunity for the other Miami wide receivers, but the poor play at quarterback limits the appeal for all of the pass catchers. Jarvis Landry saw 14 of Cutler’s 33 targets in Week 6 and should continue to be used as the primary receiving option. Although his depth of target leaves a ton to be desired, the volume will be there. Landry is definitely a stronger play on DraftKings and FantasyDraft with the full PPR scoring on those sites. It’s impossible to trust Kenny Stills at the moment.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Parker is doubtful for this game after missing practice all week. Upgrade Jarvis Landry quite a bit here.
The Takeaway: This game features a very low projected total of just 38 points, so there isn’t a ton to get excited about. Jay Ajayi is my favorite offensive play from this game, and the Dolphins should continue to ride him after he produced nicely with a heavy workload a week ago. Jarvis Landry is a strong option in PPR formats, and he gets a boost if DeVante Parker can’t play again this week. Jay Cutler is off limits because he has been so bad this year.
