NFL Grind Down: Week 7
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
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INJURIES – I will update all notable injuries/suspensions on Saturday morning after we have final injury reports
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Buffalo Bills | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.6 | 13 | 2 | 30 | Offense | 17.8 | 27 | 29 | 17 | |
| Opp. Defense | 14.8 | 1 | 19 | 8 | Opp. Defense | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Buffalo Bills | 3 | 9 | 12 | 3 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 27 | 15 | 30 | 5 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Evans | 48 | 27 | 3 | 371 | Jones | 23 | 5 | 0 | 66 | |
| Jackson | 35 | 17 | 2 | 287 | Holmes | 9 | 6 | 2 | 35 | |
| Humphries | 32 | 23 | 0 | 258 | Clay (OUT) | 5 | 1 | 0 | 28 | |
| Brate | 30 | 21 | 4 | 281 | O’Leary | 9 | 7 | 0 | 107 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Jameis Winston (TB QB) – Questionable but likely to play (Shoulder) / Jordan Matthews (BUF WR) – Questionable (Thumb)
TB Matchup Rating: 4.0
BUF Matchup Rating: 5.0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback: This situation is up in the air right now. Jameis Winston was limited in Wednesday’s practice and is expected to “try” to play this week. If he is out, it will be Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. I can’t trust either player as a DFS option in a road game against the Bills’ 3rd ranked pass defense DVOA, so I will be avoiding this situation regardless of who is out there. However, I will update as warranted when we get additional news.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Winston will likely start, but he has barely practiced all week. He carries more risk than reward in a difficult road matchup against the Bills.
Running Backs: Doug Martin saw his snap count increase from 36% in his Week 5 return to 53% last week, and the encouraging part of that was that last week’s game came in a blowout loss. Martin is not usually the primary passing down back, so his snap count should continue to grow in closer games. With the uncertainty at quarterback, the team would be smart to ride Martin as much as they can in this contest. His price tag is still affordable, and this might be one of the last chances to get him at a discount. Martin is not a primary play, but he’s certainly on the radar as a viable option.
Pass Catchers: Buffalo possesses a very stingy pass defense, and they have allowed a league low two touchdown passes on the season. Combine that statistic with the fact that we still don’t know who will be slinging the footballs to Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson, and you have an easy fade spot. There is no real justification to go here in a tough road matchup, even in the deepest of GPP offerings.
The Takeaway: I do not have much interest in the Tampa Bay side of this game, and this not a very exciting game with which to kick off the Sunday slate. Doug Martin is a nice secondary play, but the passing game could get overwhelmed by an underrated defense, especially if Ryan Fitzpatrick is under center.
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback: If you are looking for a cheap quarterback with some upside this week, you can certainly give Tyrod Taylor more than a cursory peek. The Buccaneers have not shown much resistance on defense so far this year, and they allowed Carson Palmer to complete his first 13 pass attempts a week ago. Taylor does not have great statistics this year and has a ridiculously poor receiving corps at his disposal, so that makes his floor very low on a weekly basis. However, the matchup is fine, and there is a chance that the Bills might control this game from the start. If Taylor wants to put up a big fantasy score, he is going to have to make some plays with his legs, which is very much possible. This is a massive risk/reward, GPP-only play.
Running Backs: Buffalo continues to take it a little easy with LeSean McCoy, as they tend to hold him in the 70-80% range in terms of his snap count. However, the good news is that they are coming off a bye week, so McCoy should be fresh and ready to rock against Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers also allowed the ghost of Adrian Peterson to rush for 134 yards last week behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines. Tampa’s rush defense statistics aren’t horrific overall, but they are trending in the wrong direction. McCoy is a strong play, especially for cash games, this week. I like the angle of targeting running backs coming off a bye, too.
Pass Catchers: The good news is that the matchup really couldn’t be better against a Tampa Bay team that ranks 31st in DVOA against the pass and is allowing 302 passing yards per game. The bad news is that this crop of receivers is nothing short of abysmal. Outside of Jordan Matthews, who is hurt and uncertain to play in this game, no Buffalo wide receiver has more than 66 receiving yards on the season. Zay Jones is that lucky man, and he has five catches on 23 targets. Much of the passing volume will go through McCoy.
The Takeaway: This matchup sets up nicely for LeSean McCoy, especially since Buffalo is coming off a bye week. He is one of my favorite sneaky running back targets this week, and that is cemented by how poor the receiving group is for this team. Tyrod Taylor is a risk/reward option at quarterback but is by no means a cash game play.
| Carolina Panthers | Chicago Bears | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | 40.5 | 21.75 | 3 | 40.5 | 18.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 21.3 | 17 | 15 | 22 | Offense | 17.5 | 28 | 28 | 3 | |
| Opp. Defense | 24.7 | 24 | 7 | 14 | Opp. Defense | 20.3 | 9 | 8 | 5 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Chicago Bears | 9 | 16 | 16 | 15 | Carolina Panthers | 15 | 5 | 19 | 12 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Benjamin | 38 | 26 | 1 | 371 | Wright | 26 | 20 | 1 | 236 | |
| Funchess | 45 | 27 | 3 | 305 | Gentry | 4 | 2 | 0 | 27 | |
| Shepard | 14 | 8 | 1 | 99 | McBride | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18 | |
| Dickson | 22 | 15 | 0 | 307 | Miller | 30 | 18 | 2 | 207 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Kelvin Benjamin (CAR WR) – Questionable but likely to play (Knee) / Benny Cunningham (CHI RB) – Questionable (Hamstring)
CAR Matchup Rating: 6.0
CHI Matchup Rating: 4.0
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback: Carolina is coming off a tough Thursday night home loss to the Eagles, but their offense continues to rack up yards this month. It was three turnovers that were the undoing a week ago, and Cam Newton has admitted that the offense needs to play better, though he has stopped short of criticizing himself directly. While that seems odd, I’m not a psychologist or psychiatrist and I cannot tell you what is going through his head. His fantasy production has been trending in the right direction, and the good news for our purposes is that he has started to use his legs again. Newton logged 71 rushing yards on 11 carries against the Eagles, and if he is going to run like that, his ceiling and floor are both much higher than we have come to expect. This isn’t a bad matchup, but the problem is that the sites have jacked Newton’s price up quite a bit. He’s a strong play this week, but he’s nowhere near must play status at his current price.
Running Backs: While Cam Newton rushed for 71 yards last week, the rest of the team combined to rush for NINE yards on 14 carries. Yes, those totals are correct. Christian McCaffrey is basically becoming a wide receiver with running back eligibility at this point (10 catches on 14 targets last week), and he’s a fine option in PPR formats, but the rest of the running game is very much lackluster. Jonathan Stewart is not the answer at this stage of his career, and he won’t come anywhere close to value unless he happens to find the end zone. With Newton running more, that possibility also becomes less likely. I will certainly pass on Stewart in all formats.
Pass Catchers: Kelvin Benjamin was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday, and it sounds like he had to leave practice early with his troublesome knee. That is very much a concern, and this is a spot to keep an eye on as we get closer to the weekend. Benjamin and Devin Funchess combined for a very healthy 22 targets last week, so the volume will be there for them going forward. If Benjamin is sidelined, you can upgrade Funchess as a very strong mid-range option at the WR position. Ed Dickson continues to see his fair share of targets as well, but he has been playing over his head over the past three weeks. Don’t chase the points with him. Keep an eye on Benjamin’s status, and I will put an update in here on Saturday morning if we have any more clarity.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Benjamin is likely going to play. This knocks Funchess down quite a bit, and I am not terribly interested in this group.
The Takeaway: If Cam Newton is going to continue to run, his fantasy upside is very much enhanced as we move forward. The running game has otherwise been a disaster, so a good chunk of this offense is in Newton’s hands. Devin Funchess will get a major boost if Kelvin Benjamin can’t suit up for this game, while Christian McCaffrey can be used as an option in full PPR formats after he saw 14 targets a week ago.
Chicago Bears
Quarterback: The Bears may have won a game a week ago against the Ravens, but it certainly wasn’t due to the play of new starting quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. He has completed under 50% of his passes and has thrown for just 241 yards total in his two starts, and the Bears are going to try to lean on their running game while Trubisky learns how to play at the NFL level. The young signal caller is not an option in any DFS format at the moment.
Running Backs: Although Trubisky might not yet be ready to quarterback a team at the NFL level, the team does have an emerging running back in Jordan Howard. He carried the ball a whopping 36 times against the Ravens last week, and he parlayed those carries into 167 yards on the day. That included a huge overtime run that set up the game winning field goal, and the team will continue to feed him the football as long as games remain close. The problem with Howard is that he is a zero in the passing game, and he has a tough matchup against a good Carolina front seven. I will likely avoid him this week, as the risk seems to outweigh the reward, but it has to be conceded that he looks very good right now.
Pass Catchers: This group is about as bad as the unit in Buffalo, and that certainly isn’t any form of a compliment. As is the case with the Bills, a good chunk of the passing targets will go to the tight end position, and Trubisky does seem to trust Zach Miller, who has caught a touchdown pass in each of Trubusky’s first two starts (though it must be noted that last week’s touchdown came from Tarik Cohen on a halfback pass). Miller is by far the best red zone threat for the Bears, so they should continue to give him looks in that area in a quasi-Kyle Rudolph type of role. If you are looking to save some salary at the position, Miller is a fine option. After all, the Bears started Tanner Gentry at wide receiver last week. That’s how ugly things are for this unit.
The Takeaway: Don’t get too carried away here. Even though the Bears won last week, they scored one defensive touchdown, and one of their other touchdowns was set up by a long interception return. Mitchell Trubisky and his wide receivers are off the fantasy radar in all formats. However, Zach Miller is a reasonable value target at tight end, and Jordan Howard has been surging at the running back position. I don’t love the matchup for Howard here, leaving Miller as the only real player that I have interest in.
| Tennessee Titans | Cleveland Browns | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5.5 | 46.5 | 26 | 5.5 | 46.5 | 20.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.3 | 11 | 26 | 6 | Offense | 15.7 | 31 | 23 | 21 | |
| Opp. Defense | 26.2 | 26 | 16 | 6 | Opp. Defense | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Cleveland Browns | 29 | 8 | 13 | 29 | Tennessee Titans | 25 | 13 | 21 | 9 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Matthews | 42 | 24 | 1 | 353 | Britt | 23 | 8 | 1 | 121 | |
| Decker | 35 | 23 | 0 | 226 | Louis | 35 | 18 | 0 | 229 | |
| Davis | 13 | 7 | 0 | 73 | Higgins | 27 | 12 | 0 | 125 | |
| Walker | 39 | 25 | 0 | 261 | DeValve | 25 | 14 | 1 | 167 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: DeMarco Murray (TEN RB) – Questionable (Hamstring) / Delanie Walker (TEN TE) – Questionable (Calf) / Kenny Britt (CLE WR) – Questionable (Knee)
TEN Matchup Rating: 7.0
CLE Matchup Rating: 4.5
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback: Marcus Mariota played on Monday night against the Colts, but he clearly was limited with his mobility and was strictly a pocket passer. He played quite well as a whole, which is more than I expected out of Mariota when he didn’t have the mobility element at his disposal. He finished with over 300 passing yards and completed 23-of-32 passes on the night. I think he will improve as his health returns, and this is a tasty matchup against a Browns defense that has allowed a league worst 14 touchdown passes so far this year. The short week is a bit of a concern, but he practiced fully on Wednesday and appears to be approaching full health again. I’ll give Mariota the green light here, especially in GPP formats.
Running Backs: It would be nice if the Titans can figure out what they want to do with their running backs. A week after giving DeMarco Murray about 80% of the snaps, it was close to an even split between Murray and Derrick Henry on Monday. Henry looked explosive and broke a long touchdown run in the game’s final minutes, and Murray doesn’t look fully healthy, which is nothing new. I think I have no choice but to stay away from this situation in Week 7. If Henry is going to get more and more work, he has intriguing GPP upside, but he feels a bit too risky as long as Murray is out there and starting. The Browns also have a funnel defense toward the pass and rank inside the top five in the league in DVOA against the run, so that makes the fade a little easier to stomach.
Pass Catchers: As I just mentioned above, the Browns’ defense is much more attackable via the air. This is a difficult week to find reliable value plays, and I find myself circling back to Eric Decker. He played on 83% of the snaps again on Monday night, so the opportunity is there, and he caught seven of nine targets for 88 yards against the Colts. After scoring 14 touchdowns over his final 18 games as a member of the Jets, Decker has not scored through six games as a member of the Titans. That shows extreme variance on both sides, and he is going to find the end zone at some point. A matchup against the Browns is a perfect cure for his touchdown blues. Rishard Matthews is also in play as a low end WR option, while Delanie Walker might be able to get it going against a Browns team that has been destroyed by tight ends as well.
SATURDAY UPDATE – This is a potentially big update. Both DeMarco Murray and Delanie Walker have been downgraded to game-time decisions. If Murray can’t go, Derrick Henry becomes a very intriguing mid-range RB play. If Walker can’t go, upgrade the rest of the Tennessee receivers. Keep an eye on these situations on Sunday morning.
The Takeaway: The entire passing game is in play here. It starts with Mariota at quarterback, especially as his health is trending in the right direction. Eric Decker is one of my favorite value plays of the week. I will avoid the running game against a good Cleveland rush defense with Murray and Henry splitting snaps at this point. Delanie Walker is a strong tight end play against a team that has been decimated by the position so far this year.
Cleveland Browns
Quarterback: Kevin Hogan was a popular value play last week, and he flopped in a major way against the Texans. Now, the Browns are changing their tune and are going back to DeShone Kizer as their starter. This flip-flopping can’t be good for the confidence of either player, and this team is simply a mess right now. Even in a favorable matchup against the Titans, Kizer has been far too inconsistent in his rookie year to be a worthwhile selection in any DFS format.
Running Backs: Isaiah Crowell continues to be limited to about 50% of the snaps on a weekly basis, and that’s not good when you play for a team that generally has trouble scoring anyway. Duke Johnson has some appeal in PPR formats, but he caught just three passes for a loss of one yard in last week’s game. The floor for both players is extremely low, and it’s hard to make a case for Crowell or Johnson on a full slate — even at home against a poor defense.
Pass Catchers: The targets, yards, and snaps are all over the place for this group as the Browns search for a combination that works. So far, they haven’t found that combination. We might have three of the four worst groupings of wide receivers here in these first three Sunday games (Bills, Bears, and Browns). All we need is the Giants now! This is a long way of me saying that I also have no interest in the Browns’ receivers this weekend.
The Takeaway: Cleveland has a good matchup against a Tennessee defense that leaves a lot to be desired, but this is simply a bad football team with a bad offense. On a full week slate, it’s very difficult to make a case for anyone on this offense right now. I likely won’t fire up the Tennessee defensive unit because of their limited talent, but you could do worse than banking on them for a potential defensive touchdown against a young quarterback that has no weapons and has been making a lot of mistakes.