NFL Grind Down: Week 9 - Page Two
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | New Orleans Saints | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 50 | 21.5 | -7 | 50 | 28.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 21.1 | 18 | 2 | 29 | Offense | 27.3 | 6 | 5 | 14 | |
| Opp. Defense | 20.7 | 12 | 19 | 21 | Opp. Defense | 24.0 | 24 | 30 | 17 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New Orleans Saints | 16 | 24 | 16 | 4 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 26 | 22 | 30 | 6 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Evans | 68 | 39 | 4 | 519 | Thomas | 62 | 42 | 2 | 480 | |
| Jackson | 51 | 25 | 2 | 397 | Ginn | 31 | 24 | 2 | 421 | |
| Humphries | 41 | 29 | 0 | 297 | Coleman | 19 | 13 | 3 | 245 | |
| Brate | 44 | 31 | 4 | 405 | Hill | 8 | 7 | 0 | 61 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Jameis Winston (TB QB) – Questionable but likely to play (Shoulder) / Adam Humphries (TB WR) – Questionable (Hip)
TB Matchup Rating: 6.0
NO Matchup Rating: 8.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback: It has been a very strange season for Jameis Winston, especially now that he has a nagging shoulder injury which sounds like it will persist for the rest of the year. Over the last two weeks, he has not done any practicing prior to Friday. This week, the signs are a little more encouraging, as it sounds like he made some throws on Wednesday. The problem is that we aren’t really sure how it is affecting his performance. He had a solid game against the Bills two weeks ago but looked terrible against the Panthers last week. Tampa Bay failed to score an offensive touchdown in that game. This game profiles as a potential shootout against the Saints, but I worry about the relatively low Vegas team total that the Bucs have. Winston is a very high upside play, and I would even consider him for cash games on DraftKings with his reasonable price tag, with the caveat that we have to keep an eye on the practice reports to see how he is feeling as we get closer to the weekend. With Tampa Bay being seven point underdogs in this game, they might have to chuck the ball a lot come the second half, which adds to Winston’s appeal.
Running Backs: It appears as though the coaching staff is happy keeping Doug Martin around the 60% range for a snap count. While that is a bit of a drag to his fantasy upside, it’s still enough for him to put up reasonable production on a weekly basis. The matchups haven’t been great over the last few weeks, but that changes this week. New Orleans has struggled against the run this season, as they rank 29th in DVOA in that department. They are allowing over 120 rushing yards per game along with almost five yards per carry. The game flow is a potential concern, as Martin isn’t their best pass-catching back, and that does render him as more of a GPP option than a cash game staple. If you need a mid-range option, though, he is at least in the conversation.
Pass Catchers: Somehow, Mike Evans does not have a 100 yard receiving game this season. Somehow, the Saints rank 4th in DVOA against the pass this season. Both of those numbers are due for some regression, but it is worth noting that Marshon Lattimore has been absolutely fantastic in coverage. He is quietly emerging as one of the best defensive backs in the league, and it’s possible that we see him shadow Evans here. If that is the case, upgrade the other pass catchers for the Buccaneers quite a bit. DeSean Jackson is always capable of making a big play, and both tight ends have emerged as solid pass catching threats. I’ll have some GPP shares of both Evans and Jackson, and there are enough tight ends that I like to where I won’t be forcing in Cameron Brate or O.J. Howard. If we get confirmation that Lattimore will indeed shadow Evans, upgrade Jackson more. Lattimore has given up just 48 receiving yards in man coverage.
The Takeaway: This is one of the biggest wild card teams of the week. Assuming Jameis Winston is healthy, I like him as a QB option on this slate. You can pair him with one of his pass catchers, though I am only lukewarm on Mike Evans if he sees shadow coverage from the emerging Marshon Lattimore. This would be a big boost for DeSean Jackson. Doug Martin has the best individual matchup against a mediocre run defense, but he doesn’t always play on passing downs and carries risk if his team falls behind. Basically, this whole team is more viable with GPP upside as opposed to core cash game plays.
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback: Now we’re talking. Drew Brees has yet to have that massive, 400+ yard, break-the-slate type game in 2017. This could be the spot. Tampa Bay has been ravaged by injuries in the secondary, and top corner Brent Grimes missed last week’s game. Even if he is back this week, there’s little reason to be scared to use Brees. Tampa Bay has the 31st ranked DVOA against the pass and is allowing 275 yards per game through the air. That number was at 295 prior to last week, but the Panthers didn’t have to push the ball via the passing game very much. Brees is my favorite quarterback option this week, regardless of site or salary. Fire him up with confidence in all formats.
Running Backs: In fantasy football, it is very easy to play the recency bias game. Remember Mark Ingram? He had a huge game against the Lions three weeks ago. After that game, his DFS price tag skyrocketed. Last week, everyone was happy to for Ingram at that elevated price point, and it surprised me to see how popular he was despite an average matchup. Sean Payton has never been one to use a workhorse running back, and Ingram basically split snaps evenly with Alvin Kamara against the Bears even though the Saints held a comfortable lead for much of the game. I prefer targeting Brees and the passing game this week, but if you insist, these running backs are in play. Ingram is a better option on FanDuel, while Kamara carries more appeal on DraftKings and FantasyDraft with the full PPR scoring.
Pass Catchers: As of right now, it doesn’t sound like Brent Grimes will be able to return for Tampa Bay this week. Assuming that is the case, who exactly is going to cover Michael Thomas? It hasn’t been a great season for him to date, as many people expected him to be a fantasy WR #1 option with Brandin Cooks off to New England. While those may have been unreasonable expectations, he should play like a WR #1 this week. I will have an absolute boatload of Brees/Thomas pairing on my GPP teams in this matchup. While I generally like to hedge my ownership, I am debating going 50%+ with this pairing. That’s how much I like the matchup. Willie Snead played just four snaps last week after being inactive in Week 7, so it is clear that Brandon Coleman has run away with the third receiver job. Ted Ginn is always capable of a big play. All three of these guys are reasonable options depending on your roster construction. Thomas is my favorite, Ginn has GPP appeal, and Coleman can be considered as a punt play.
The Takeaway: Fire up your Saints this week. The Brees to Thomas connection will be my highest owned GPP stack, but you can consider the other receivers as well. Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara are splitting snaps at running back, and now their prices are elevated to reflect the trade of Adrian Peterson. I prefer targeting the passing game here, but Kamara could be considered in full PPR formats, while Ingram is certainly capable of paying off his price tag if he can find the end zone a time or two.
| Los Angeles Rams | New York Giants | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 42 | 22.75 | 3.5 | 42 | 19.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 30.3 | 2 | 13 | 7 | Offense | 16.0 | 30 | 23 | 27 | |
| Opp. Defense | 22.3 | 17 | 26 | 23 | Opp. Defense | 19.7 | 11 | 9 | 25 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New York Giants | 26 | 14 | 16 | 32 | Los Angeles Rams | 9 | 31 | 7 | 4 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Watkins | 29 | 18 | 2 | 264 | Shepard | 29 | 22 | 1 | 263 | |
| Woods | 44 | 27 | 0 | 381 | Lewis | 19 | 10 | 1 | 129 | |
| Kupp | 42 | 23 | 3 | 316 | King | 6 | 2 | 0 | 8 | |
| Higbee | 27 | 14 | 0 | 179 | Engram | 53 | 30 | 3 | 342 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
LAR Matchup Rating: 4.5
NYG Matchup Rating: 3.5
Los Angeles Rams
Quarterback: The Rams have won back-to-back games and should be full of confidence coming out of their bye week. That doesn’t necessarily mean we need to run out and target Jared Goff, though. His production slowed in the month of October, and this is an offense that will revolve around the legs of Todd Gurley. This isn’t a bad matchup, especially considering that Janoris Jenkins has been suspended by the Giants for a violation of team rules. However, it’s still difficult to make a strong case for Goff in what should be a game where the Rams can lean on their run-first approach. He’s worth a look at a small percentage if you are mass entering GPPs, but that’s about it.
Running Backs: Speaking of revolving around the legs of Todd Gurley, here we are. Gurley continues to impress, averaging a solid 4.3 yards per carry this season while becoming more involved in the passing game, too. He’s a fine fit in Coach McVay’s offense, and I like the fact that he should be rested coming out of the bye week. He has had some heavy workloads this year, so hopefully the bye week did hom wonders. Gurley is not my #1 option this week given the low total of this game, but he’s right there with the likes of Leonard Fournette in the lower-owned, high upside category. I certainly won’t be completely fading Gurley in this spot, though the Giants have allowed just two rushing touchdowns all season. That is surprising given how often they tend to fall behind.
Pass Catchers: If the Rams worked on some gadgets during their bye week, expect some trick plays involving Sammy Watkins and/or Tavon Austin in this game. However, they might holster those instead of breaking them out against the lowly Giants. Still, this team needs to look to get the ball in Watkins’ hands more often. He is now available at a dirt cheap price across the DFS landscape, and that makes him a very interesting tournament option. His game logs have been very ugly lately, but a Giants secondary sans Jenkins should be an inviting matchup. He’s in that T.Y. Hilton group of talented wide receivers that have been struggling and are now cheap. This might be a good time to buy low. If I go anywhere in this group, it will be with Watkins. He’s the most talented wide receiver, and he’s also very affordable. That’s good enough for me. Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp lack the upside at their spots.
The Takeaway: If you want to bargain shop, give Sammy Watkins a look. He’s too talented to be this cheap for long. Todd Gurley is your safe play here, and he should be refreshed and ready to go coming out of the bye week. It’s hard to trust anyone else, although Kupp and Woods aren’t necessarily horrible WR options.
New York Giants
Quarterback: The Giants scored just seven points in their last game against the Seahawks, and they might have to sign Rudy to the practice squad to fill out their wide receiver group at this point. Eli Manning has been bad all season and has been horrendous without Odell Beckham Jr. He is not a fantasy option against a sneaky solid Rams pass defense that has more interceptions (nine) than touchdowns allowed (eight) and ranks third in DVOA against the pass. Find another option.
Running Backs: For as bad as Eli Manning has been, the running game has been… worse? Orleans Darkwa led the team with nine carries for 35 yards heading into the bye week, and there’s little upside to be had from this group. It is very telling that the Giants have just a 19 point team total at home. We are half way through the season, and they have yet to eclipse 24 points in a game all year. Again, find another option.
Pass Catchers: Play Evan Engram. Don’t play anyone else. That’s where we are at with this combination of players. Engram has seen over 30% of the team’s targets over the last two weeks, and he has put up very solid numbers in those games with a 5/82/1 line against Denver and a 6/60/1 line against Seattle. He will continue to be a volume-based option at the tight end position. If you are passing on the high price tags of Kelce and Ertz at the top, Engram checks in as the #3 overall option on this week’s slate. Even though the Rams are a solid defense, the volume is virtually guaranteed to be there. Sterling Shepard is going to return this week and will likely become the top wide receiver in time, but I don’t want to target him in his first game back.
The Takeaway: Evan Engram is a fine tight end option. The rest of the offense is off limits. Period. You can also target the Rams defense as a squad that might get overlooked to some degree.
| Denver Broncos | Philadelphia Eagles | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 43.5 | 17.75 | -8 | 43.5 | 25.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.1 | 24 | 16 | 11 | Offense | 29.0 | 4 | 11 | 5 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.5 | 10 | 28 | 1 | Opp. Defense | 21.0 | 13 | 3 | 2 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 22 | 5 | 19 | 24 | Denver Broncos | 12 | 1 | 4 | 28 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Thomas | 59 | 35 | 0 | 455 | Jeffery | 62 | 28 | 3 | 416 | |
| Sanders | 42 | 25 | 2 | 266 | Agholor | 38 | 27 | 5 | 392 | |
| Fowler | 35 | 20 | 2 | 220 | Smith | 28 | 14 | 1 | 210 | |
| Green | 12 | 9 | 1 | 120 | Ertz | 64 | 43 | 6 | 528 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Emmanuel Sanders (DEN WR) – Questionable (Ankle) / Zach Ertz (PHI TE) – Questionable but will play (Hamstring)
DEN Matchup Rating: 2.0
PHI Matchup Rating: 5.0
Denver Broncos
Quarterback: Brock Osweiler is now the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos. This is a test of the emergency broadcast system. If you roster Brock Osweiler on your DFS teams, alarms will sound across the country. Don’t be that person.
Running Backs: The starting running back gig is officially up for grabs, too. C.J. Anderson has slowly seen his snap counts deteriorate over the last few games, and deservedly so. Anderson has been a major bust this year, as he has not done anything in the passing game and has logged just one total touchdown. His yards per carry numbers aren’t bad, but the Broncos want to see what they have in Devontae Booker, so Booker is getting in the mix a little more often. Jamaal Charles is also still around, so we have the dreaded three-headed monster in play. The snap count last week was as follows: Anderson (35), Booker (25), and Charles (13). Charles also lost a fumble that was returned for a touchdown, and that won’t go over well. The fumbles were part of the reason why Devontae Booker got benched at times last year. All this has basically been a long-winded way of me saying that I want no part of this mess.
Pass Catchers: This game might present a pass-heavy game script for the Broncos, but it likely won’t come with much efficiency. Emmanuel Sanders is likely going to return, as he is back at practice, so Denver will have both their starting wide receivers available. They will get plenty of targets, but I just can’t trust an Osweiler-led offense. I would side with Demaryius Thomas if I had to pick a Denver wide receiver, but I will likely stay away from both players right now.
The Takeaway: Don’t roster any Denver offensive players. With Osweiler at the helm and the team on the road, this could be a disaster. The Eagles defense will be a very popular selection in all formats.
Philadelphia Eagles
Quarterback: Carson Wentz has looked like an MVP-caliber quarterback this season, and he just isn’t slowing down. He had a fine game against the 49ers last week despite poor weather conditions, and he now has 13 touchdown passes over his last four games. This doesn’t seem like the best of matchups, but Denver has been much weaker against the pass this year in a surprising reversal of their defensive numbers. I don’t expect the Eagles to dial back their offense here, and Wentz remains a high upside quarterback option. Wentz is a little too expensive for my liking based on his recent performances, but he 100% deserves that price bump. If he is going to be 3-5% owned in GPPs, I’ll gladly take some shots with a few Wentz lineups.
Running Backs: The Eagles have acquired Jay Ajayi, and we have a DFS mess on our hands here. This is similar to the Kelvin Benjamin situation. It looks like FanDuel and FantasyDraft have Ajayi available and ready to select as an Eagles player. DraftKings, however, does not, as the Dolphins are scheduled to play on Sunday Night Football, so they are not on the main slate. As such, Ajayi was not placed into the player pool. However, DraftKings has also announced that Benjamin will not count in their scoring, and this is consistent with their past handling of trades. In short, you can only take Ajayi on the full week slates on FD & FDRAFT. I’ll take a wait and see approach with this, too. I don’t expect Ajayi to be a workhorse right out of the gate, especially since the Eagles are playing well with their other backs. Let’s see how this plays out for a week and then go from there. Besides, Denver is allowing just 3.0 yards per carry and hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown all season.
Pass Catchers: The place to attack Denver is via the tight end, as the Chiefs showed last week. Travis Kelce went absolutely ham against the Broncos on Monday night, with seven catches for 133 yards and a touchdown. Luckily for the Eagles, they just so happen to have one of the best receiving tight ends in all of football. Ertz has logged touchdown catches in four straight games, and his consistent production at the tight end position is definitely worth paying a premium. In this matchup, I would also expect him to see around ten targets. Denver has good boundary corners that limit the potential for the wide receivers, and, as I wrote above, I don’t expect the Eagles to have much success on the ground. Fire up Ertz with confidence here.
The Takeaway: Carson Wentz is certainly in play due to the fact that he has shown phenomenal upside this season, but this isn’t the greatest matchup against a strong defense. If you are playing Wentz this week, you might want to pair him up with Zach Ertz, as tight ends have had the most success against Denver this year. Outside of those two, there’s not a lot to like here. Jay Ajayi is not available on every site, and let’s give him a week to get acclimated to his new team.
| Baltimore Ravens | Tennessee Titans | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 21.3 | 17 | 32 | 6 | Offense | 22.6 | 13 | 27 | 8 | |
| Opp. Defense | 24.7 | 26 | 16 | 10 | Opp. Defense | 18.5 | 6 | 2 | 30 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Tennessee Titans | 20 | 12 | 20 | 10 | Baltimore Ravens | 2 | 21 | 2 | 20 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Maclin | 33 | 19 | 3 | 212 | Matthews | 48 | 27 | 1 | 393 | |
| Wallace | 28 | 16 | 1 | 248 | Decker | 37 | 23 | 0 | 226 | |
| Perriman | 20 | 4 | 0 | 26 | Davis | 13 | 7 | 0 | 73 | |
| Watson | 39 | 31 | 2 | 220 | Walker | 49 | 32 | 0 | 324 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Michael Campanaro (BAL WR) – Out (Shoulder) / Joe Flacco (BAL QB) – Questionable but will start (Concussion) / Mike Wallace (BAL WR) – Questionable but likely to play (Back) / Jeremy Maclin (BAL WR) – Questionable (Shoulder)
BAL Matchup Rating: 3.5
TEN Matchup Rating: 4.5
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback: Even though he’s back from his concussion, the mantra remains the same: Don’t play Joe Flacco. He hasn’t posted a game where you would regret not playing him in about two years now.
Running Backs: Alex Collins and Javorius Allen continue to split snaps in the Baltimore backfield, but it’s Collins that has been the far more impressive runner over the last few weeks. Collins logged 18 carries for 113 yards against the Dolphins last Thursday, while Allen totaled just 55 yards on 17 carries. Collins also added 30 yards on a couple of receptions. He’s the guy to consider here, especially since his price tag remains very reasonable. If this game stays competitive, I would expect Collins to get a larger share of the carries this week. He’s in play for all formats if you need a value option.
Pass Catchers: This whole group has been banged up all season, and Joe Flacco is throwing them the football. That’s not a great combination for fantasy football purposes. The matchup is divine against a poor Tennessee secondary, but who can we trust? Jeremy Maclin is still limited in practice with his shoulder issue. Mike Wallace is practicing in full and appears to be recovered from his concussion, so perhaps he is the GPP dart throw we can look to. There isn’t a safe play in the group.
The Takeaway: Alex Collins is far and away the best fantasy option on this squad. Don’t bother with anyone else, outside of a possible low-owned dart throw at Mike Wallace and his big play ability in a GPP.
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback: Last week against the Dolphins, the Ravens reminded everyone that they still have a very strong defensive unit. They wreaked havoc on Matt Moore and the Dolphins on the way to a shutout victory, and their pass defense ranks behind only Jacksonville in the DVOA metric. This is a solid secondary that I don’t want to mess with on a weekly basis. Even though the Titans are coming off a bye, I’m not interested in Marcus Mariota, who couldn’t even lead one touchdown drive against the Browns heading into that bye week. Yes, I realize he was not fully healthy then and should be closer to 100% now, but that doesn’t mean I want to jam him into my lineups against the Ravens. Pass.
Running Backs: Baltimore has been a little more vulnerable on the ground this year, but a lot of those games were played without primary run stopper Brandon Williams. He is back now, and there’s still the matter of this pesky time share in the Tennessee backfield. DeMarco Murray continues to get a healthy dose of snaps despite being banged up, and the bye week should have him back close to full health. I don’t want to do this, but Murray is at least in the conversation, as his price has become surprisingly cheap everywhere. Henry remains a bona fide threat, but Murray is still the starter… for now. He’s a reasonable, but not fantastic, option in a difficult matchup.
Pass Catchers: Eric Decker was a popular option heading into Tennessee’s bye week, only to put up one of the most disappointing goose-egg performances you will ever see. I don’t want any part of this low upside WR group against the Ravens. Tight end is the spot to attack Baltimore, which puts Delanie Walker in the conversation. The problem is that he suffered an ankle injury a couple weeks ago and has not practiced yet. If he is out this week, fire up the talented rookie Jonnu Smith as a viable punt play at tight end. I will update this situation on Saturday, and hopefully we have more news by then.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Delanie Walker is not on the injury report and is good to go for this week. He’s a solid tight end option. Corey Davis is also back in the mix, but I don’t think he can be trusted in his first game back against the Ravens.
The Takeaway: This is a difficult matchup for the Titans, and this game has a relatively low 43 point projected total. If you trust the workload for DeMarco Murray coming out of the bye, he’s very affordable on all sites. I just don’t love the matchup, and the same goes for the wide receivers. The way to attack Baltimore is via the tight end, so keep an eye on the injury status of Delanie Walker.
