NFL Grind Down: Week 9
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Implied Team Totals
INJURIES – I will update all notable injuries/suspensions on Saturday morning after we have final injury reports
| Buffalo Bills | New York Jets | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 43 | 23.25 | 3.5 | 43 | 19.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 21.9 | 15 | 30 | 8 | Offense | 19.6 | 21 | 19 | 22 | |
| Opp. Defense | 23.3 | 22 | 17 | 27 | Opp. Defense | 16.4 | 3 | 29 | 3 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New York Jets | 21 | 23 | 21 | 26 | Buffalo Bills | 7 | 8 | 14 | 22 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Matthews | 20 | 15 | 1 | 193 | Anderson | 52 | 27 | 3 | 435 | |
| Jones | 37 | 10 | 0 | 115 | Kearse | 41 | 29 | 4 | 342 | |
| Holmes | 16 | 11 | 3 | 97 | Hansen | |||||
| O’Leary | 14 | 10 | 0 | 170 | Seferian-Jenkins | 39 | 31 | 3 | 201 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
BUF Matchup Rating: 5.5
NYJ Matchup Rating: 4.5
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback: We get the week started with a relatively underwhelming Thursday night game between the Bills and Jets in New York. It will be interesting to see how the Bills fare offensively now that they have a relatively dangerous wide receiver in Kelvin Benjamin. It certainly can’t hurt the outlook for Tyrod Taylor, who has basically been throwing the ball to the Three Stooges this season.The Jets carry an average pass defense, and there is nothing that stands out in this matchup as a really good or really bad note. Taylor is capable of a solid game, especially if he uses his legs, but I don’t see a reason to go here on a full week slate.
Running Backs: Buffalo should try to control this game by using the ground game and LeSean McCoy. The Jets have been vulnerable against the run this season, and McCoy is in the midst of his strongest stretch of the season. He racked up 173 total yards on a whopping 33 touches last week against the Raiders, and Buffalo has won their last two games on the heels of giving McCoy 61 total touches in those contests. In the first meeting between these two teams back in Week 1, McCoy logged 22 carries for 110 yards and added 49 yards on five receptions. I see no reason why he can’t repeat that performance, and a big game is possible if he finds the end zone.
Pass Catchers: Make sure you keep an eye on the alerts from your site of choice this week to see if Kelvin Benjamin will score fantasy points. Some sites will NOT count players in weeks where they have been traded, and he likely will not be available in any carryover Mon/Thu contests. That isn’t necessarily bad news, as I want to give Benjamin a week or two to get acclimated to his new environment. I have no doubt that he will eventually become the #1 wide receiver on this team, but that isn’t exactly a hot take when the team includes the likes of Jordan Matthews, Zay Jones, and Deonte Thompson as top options. I will be avoiding this whole group this week. If I play Taylor on a lineup, I will do it without pairing him with a pass catcher.
The Takeaway: This doesn’t project to be a super exciting Thursday night game, so don’t feel the need to play a lot of guys from this game (unless, of course, you are wrapping up Mon/Thu contests from last week and you have to). If your site allows Kelvin Benjamin to be selected, he’s a decent option, but I’d like to wait a week or two to let him get more acclimated to his new team. LeSean McCoy is by far the safest option here, and he had a good game against a relatively weak Jets rush defense in their first meeting. I don’t see a ton of appeal in Tyrod Taylor on the road here.
New York Jets
Quarterback: Remember when the Jets were almost guaranteed to be an 0-16 team this year? They were going to be awful! Awful on both counts! (Yes, that was a movie reference). However, they have been playing well above expectations this season, and that’s good to see. Josh McCown has put up some solid numbers, especially over the last month. He has logged four straight multi-touchdown games, though he hasn’t faced a ton of elite pass defenses in that stretch. The good news is that the Bills also are not an elite pass defense, and they have been recently ravaged by injuries in their secondary. McCown is by no means a core play, but I do prefer him over Taylor if you are looking for a quarterback option from this game.
Running Backs: This spot is basically an even time share between Matt Forte and Bilal Powell, and they actually played on the exact same number of snaps last week, as both logged 48% snap rates. This is also a matchup against a good rush defense, as the Bills are only allowing 80 rushing yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry this season. There is absolutely no need to go here in a difficult matchup.
Pass Catchers: Perhaps the biggest surprise in this offense has been Robby Anderson, who has been playing solid football along with his quarterback over the last few weeks. He has caught touchdown passes in back-to-back games, and he saw 12 targets the week prior to that. His 6/104/1 line from a week ago was his best of the season, and he is locked and loaded as McCown’s clear #1 receiver. If you want to pick a cheap wide receiver from this game, Anderson is easily your best option, especially when you consider how depleted the Bills have been in the secondary. The Bills grade out relatively neutral against tight ends, so you don’t have to splurge for Austin Seferian-Jenkins on the full week slates. There are several other tight end options this week.
The Takeaway: My favorite individual play from the Jets is Robby Anderson. He has been trending in the right direction for almost a month now, and his price has not yet caught up to his production. Josh McCown is the better of the two quarterbacks from this game, but he is nowhere near must-play status. The New York running back situation remains a hands-off spot for me.
| Atlanta Falcons | Carolina Panthers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 44 | 20.75 | -2.5 | 44 | 23.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 21.9 | 15 | 9 | 10 | Offense | 18.5 | 23 | 21 | 20 | |
| Opp. Defense | 17.8 | 5 | 5 | 5 | Opp. Defense | 21.7 | 15 | 13 | 11 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Carolina Panthers | 4 | 4 | 7 | 8 | Atlanta Falcons | 14 | 27 | 10 | 9 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jones | 56 | 37 | 1 | 540 | Benjamin | 51 | 32 | 2 | 475 | |
| Sanu | 41 | 28 | 2 | 302 | Funchess | 59 | 33 | 3 | 357 | |
| Gabriel | 29 | 17 | 1 | 189 | Shepard | 18 | 11 | 1 | 133 | |
| Hooper | 29 | 22 | 2 | 295 | Dickson | 32 | 22 | 0 | 349 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
ATL Matchup Rating: 5.0
CAR Matchup Rating: 5.5
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback: The Falcons have not been anywhere near the offensive juggernaut that we saw in 2016, and they are being forced to work a lot harder to score points. When you compare it to a year ago, the current season has definitely been a disappointment for Matt Ryan. Even though the Panthers are a little banged up in the secondary, they still shut down the Bucs’ passing attack a week ago and have solid pass defense metrics. It’s hard to justify using Ryan on the road in this spot, though I suppose you could justify it as a risk/reward GPP play.
Running Backs: Devonta Freeman was a staple in many of my GPP lineups last week, and that performance was quite the letdown in the rain. I figured the Falcons would stick to the run, and they did run the ball 32 times in the game. However, Tevin Coleman logged more rushing attempts than Freeman (14 to 12), and Freeman’s 60% snap rate was his lowest in quite some time. This might be more of a time share going forward, especially since it was Coleman who had double the yardage last week. I will likely leave them both on the table on a week where there are quite a few solid running back choices.
Pass Catchers: By his standards, it has been nothing short of a terrible year for Julio Jones. He has averaged just 77 yards per game so far in 2017, and he has found the end zone just once — on a meaningless late game touchdown against the Patriots a few weeks back. At this point, there doesn’t seem to be much appeal for targeting him in DFS. We are getting to the point where it is like a dog chasing his tail. Eventually, he just MIGHT get there, but that narrative has been thrown around for two months now. The idea of a Ryan/Jones stack is moderately appealing in GPPs, but I wouldn’t play them individually or in cash games. Outside of Jones, there isn’t a lot to get excited about in this group. Mohamed Sanu had a solid game with six grabs and a touchdown against the Jets, and he is a reasonably safe low-cost option for your cash games, if you desperately need a player here. Don’t feel the need to force anyone into a lineup, though.
The Takeaway: For one of the first times all year, I am fully comfortable fading the Falcons. They have to face a solid defense on the road, and this isn’t the same unit we saw a year ago. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones carry some GPP appeal, mainly due to likely low ownership, but they are nowhere near core plays. Mohamed Sanu would be a decent cash game option at wide receiver. I will avoid everyone else on a full slate of games, especially since the running back tandem has been scuffling and is now a near-even committee.
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback: After attempting just 22 rushes over the first four games of the season, Cam Newton has jumped that total up to 38 over the last four games, and that is obviously good news for his fantasy value. His upside has always been a direct result of his rushing ability, and the production has been solid over the last three contests. Carolina’s last two games have both been 17-3 snooze-fests, with one of them being a win and one of them being a loss. I would expect a few more points in this game, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see a lower-scoring game. Newton isn’t the first guy I would pick out this week, especially in cash games, but the GPP appeal is there, especially if he can find the end zone with his legs.
Running Backs: Avoid, avoid, avoid. From a rushing perspective, this group has been a disaster in 2017. Jonathan Stewart is averaging just three full yards per carry and finally scored his first touchdown in Week 8. Christian McCaffrey carries some appeal on full-PPR sites, but he is basically a wide receiver these days. His rushing production has been nonexistent. There’s no reason to get too cute and target Stewart this week.
Pass Catchers: The big news with this team, of course, is that Kelvin Benjamin has been shipped to Buffalo. It’s time for Devin Funchess to show us what he can do, and he should be the clear-cut beneficiary of this trade. Prior to last week, Funchess had logged at least eight targets in five straight games, and he could be staring at double-figure targets on a weekly basis now. The price tag has yet to catch up for his recent production, so I plan to invest with confidence in Mr. Funchess this week. We will have to wait and see if a #2 wide receiver steps up out of an unheralded group that includes Russell Shepard and Curtis Samuel. Yeah… there’s a reason why Funchess gets the biggest boost here. Even Ed Dickson, who has been playing on literally 100% of the snaps recently, might stand to see a few additional targets. He is in play if you are going cheap at tight end (though I don’t recommend that approach – we’ll get to that later).
The Takeaway: Devin Funchess is far and away my favorite point per dollar play on this team. He should gobble up targets with Kelvin Benjamin no longer around, and he is clearly the top passing game threat. Cam Newton is a solid GPP option as well, and you can consider Ed Dickson if you are going cheap at tight end. I will be avoiding the inconsistent running game in this spot.
| Indianapolis Colts | Houston Texans | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 49.5 | 18.25 | -13 | 49.5 | 31.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 17.8 | 25 | 26 | 19 | Offense | 30.7 | 1 | 14 | 3 | |
| Opp. Defense | 26.9 | 29 | 22 | 9 | Opp. Defense | 30.8 | 32 | 31 | 19 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Houston Texans | 29 | 3 | 24 | 25 | Indianapolis Colts | 27 | 30 | 26 | 19 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Hilton | 56 | 29 | 1 | 527 | Hopkins | 76 | 45 | 7 | 606 | |
| Moncrief | 33 | 18 | 1 | 271 | Fuller | 22 | 13 | 7 | 279 | |
| Aiken | 36 | 14 | 0 | 131 | Ellington | 23 | 12 | 1 | 168 | |
| Doyle | 55 | 42 | 2 | 378 | Griffin | 26 | 13 | 1 | 158 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
IND Matchup Rating: 2.5
HOU Matchup Rating: 9.0
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback: This game is expected to be one of the least competitive contests of Week 9, and the Colts have an implied team total of just 18 points in this road contest. Jacoby Brissett hasn’t shown a ton of upside since his one good game against the Bengals, and there’s no reason to consider him outside of a deep GPP flier if you need to punt the quarterback position. That still doesn’t seem like a very wise investment. The risk outweighs the potential reward.
Running Backs: The transition is slowly happening. Marlon Mack has worked his snap counts from the 20% ranges to 48% and 53%, respectively, over the last two weeks. He is clearly more explosive than Frank Gore, though it was Gore who posted the better rushing numbers a week ago. Mack did salvage his fantasy day with a receiving touchdown, and he is definitely a better option in the passing game than Gore. In a game where Indianapolis could very well be trailing by a lot, Mack makes some sense as a GPP option. He still carries too much risk for cash games with the uncertain volume.
Pass Catchers: Jack Doyle has arrived to the party! He logged a massive 12/121/1 line on 14 targets against the Bengals last week, an impressive feat to say the least. Targeting him this week feels a little bit like chasing points, but Doyle is a solid pass-catching tight end and is worth a look in the mid-range of pricing. The intriguing option here is T.Y. Hilton. Coach Pagano has been quoted as saying the team needs to get the ball in Hilton’s hands more, and this isn’t necessarily a bad matchup for him. Houston’s pass defense got lit up by Russell Wilson last week, and Hilton is extremely cheap on DraftKings and to some extent on FantasyDraft. i absolutely love him at that DK price this week, and he is my top value play over there. He’s less appealing on FanDuel but is certainly still in play.
The Takeaway: Indianapolis has one of the lowest team totals of the week, so proceed with caution here. They will likely be trailing, potentially by a wide margin, so that adds some appeal to the passing attack. T.Y. Hilton is the squeaky wheel narrative of the week, and he’s priced at a clearance sale discount on DraftKings. Fire him up as a great value over there. Marlon Mack appears to be gaining more trust from the coaching staff and is a risk/reward GPP value at running back. You can also consider the Houston defense, if you wish, but their lack of pass rush makes me a little concerned.
Houston Texans
I’m going to eschew the normal breakdown by position here and simply talk about Houston as a whole. Let’s make one thing clear right off the bat: Houston should score a lot of points in this game. I am by no means doubting any of their skill players’ ability to put up fantasy points against a weak Colts defense. After all, Deshaun Watson absolutely smashed against a very good Seattle pass defense last week. DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller had massive games, and Fuller seemingly scores a touchdown every week. If you want to pay up for them, by all means do it. However, I will make two points here:
1) Watson, Hopkins, and Fuller have reached hurricane gouging type price points this week. It’s like paying $4.00 for a gallon of gas right now.
2) Houston is favored by almost two touchdowns in this game.
When you combine those two factors, it really makes me want to fade the passing game in tournaments. You can double down on that fade by getting exposure to Lamar Miller, whose price hasn’t risen all that much. Though he didn’t do a ton on a per-touch basis last week, he did log 25+ touches and scored a pair of touchdowns (one rushing, one receiving). That is my likely approach in GPP formats. In cash games, it’s probably wise to get a piece of the passing game through either Watson or one of the two receivers. It’s just hard for me to justify the massive premium that we now have to pay. This is a fascinating discussion, and I will freely admit that I understand the other side of it. How you handle the Houston offense will be a big key to your DFS success or failure in Week 9. After all, they are projected to score 31 points as team!
THURSDAY UPDATE – Boom goes the dynamite. Watson appears to have suffered a torn ACL in Thursday’s practice, and that will just about kill any World Series buzz for the Houston fans. What a disappointment this news is. I feel terrible for Watson and the club, and going from Watson to Tom Savage is basically like going from a Ritz Carlton to a Motel 6, or from a rib-eye steak to a McDonald’s cheeseburger. You get the picture. Downgrade the whole Houston passing game significantly, and Lamar Miller is clearly the top target in this offense now. DeAndre Hopkins is going to go from a chalk play to a completely contrarian high-end play, but I can’t endorse paying that kind of premium with Savage under center. Ugh.
| Cincinnati Bengals | Jacksonville Jaguars | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 39.5 | 17 | -5.5 | 39.5 | 22.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 17.4 | 26 | 22 | 30 | Offense | 26.1 | 8 | 28 | 1 | |
| Opp. Defense | 15.7 | 1 | 1 | 32 | Opp. Defense | 19.3 | 9 | 4 | 18 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 1 | 17 | 1 | 16 | Cincinnati Bengals | 9 | 13 | 5 | 18 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Green | 65 | 38 | 4 | 572 | Lee | 46 | 24 | 0 | 363 | |
| LaFell | 37 | 23 | 1 | 180 | Hurns | 38 | 26 | 2 | 345 | |
| Ross | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Cole | 21 | 8 | 0 | 111 | |
| Kroft | 27 | 23 | 3 | 208 | Lewis | 20 | 7 | 4 | 105 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Tyler Boyd (CIN WR) – Out (Knee) / Marqise Lee (JAX WR) – Questionable (Knee)
CIN Matchup Rating: 2.0
JAX Matchup Rating: 5.5
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback: The Bengals travel to Jacksonville this week to take on a Jaguars pass defense that has consistently been the best in the league this year. They have allowed just 162 passing yards per game and four total touchdowns this year, while they have intercepted ten passes. They are also coming off a bye week. Needless to say, Andy Dalton is one of the worst quarterback options on the board this week. Look elsewhere.
Running Backs: While it is very difficult to pass against the Jaguars, it is much easier to run against them. They are allowing a league-worst 5.2 yards per carry so far this season, so we would normally fire up a running back against them. That’s a problem with the Bengals. In an easy matchup against the Colts last week, they rushed for just 58 yards on 21 carries as a team. Joe Mixon led the team with 11 carries for 18 yards, though he did break a huge gain on a passing play. He is clearly their most talented running back, and his snap count finally 63% a week ago. I’ll take some chances on him this week, but I am still on the fence as to whether he is safe enough to use for cash games. I would only do it in an emergency situation if he is the last guy to round out your lineup.
Pass Catchers: I don’t play pass catchers against the Jaguars, even if they are named A.J. Green. Next!
The Takeaway: If you want to play any skill players against the Jaguars, running backs are the way to go. Joe Mixon is the only fantasy option on the Bengals this week, and hopefully he can continue to take over the Cincinnati backfield. Jacksonville is much more vulnerable against the run, and perhaps Mixon can get the ground game going in Week 9. The Jaguars defense is also a very strong play, as they could very well get a defensive touchdown if Cincinnati is forced to the air with a deficit late in this game.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback: I do not believe that the bye week morphed Blake Bortles into anything other than Blake Bortles. He only has one multi-touchdown game this season and carries very little DFS upside. On the flip side, he carries a lot of risk with a low floor. There’s no reason to buy into Bortles in any format, and that will continue indefinitely.
Running Backs: On the flip side, we do get a lot of upside with Mr. Leonard Fournette. He is practicing in full this week and appears to be fully healed from the minor ankle injury that he suffered a few weeks ago. He should be close to 100% coming out of the bye week, and that’s good news for us. Fournette has scored at least one touchdown in every game that he has played in the NFL, and the Jaguars lead the NFL in rushing yards despite having already utilized their bye week. Cincinnati possesses a decent rush defense, which means that Fournette isn’t the #1 running back on the board this week, but he’s certainly not too far away from that. Don’t be afraid to use him if he fits your roster build, and the tournament-winning upside is obviously there as well.
Pass Catchers: Allen Hurns and Marqise Lee have the potential to be solid low-cost options on a weekly basis, but the inconsistency of Bortles under center gives both of them an uncomfortably low floor. Hurns had the 100 yard day heading into the bye week, but that doesn’t mean he is the guy to trust going forward. I wouldn’t trust anybody as anything more than a GPP option on the cheap.
The Takeaway: Most Jaguars games are going to be quick moving, run-focused contests, because the Jaguars want to run the ball themselves, while that is also their weakness on defense. Leonard Fournette hasn’t played in a few weeks thanks to an injury and a bye week, but he is ready to roll for this game and should have fresh legs. It’s not the best matchup on paper, but he has been downright impressive in his rookie year. He is worth a look in all formats, while the Jaguars’ receivers are nothing more than risk/reward GPP options.