NFL Grind Down: Wild Card Round

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2017-01-11 20:08:46

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.

Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link.

INJURIES – I will update all notable injuries/suspensions on Saturday morning after we have final injury reports

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans

Oakland Raiders						Houston Texans
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		3.5	36.5	16.5				-3.5	36.5	20
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	26.0	7	16	6		Offense	17.4	28	29	8
Opp. Defense	20.5	11	2	12		Opp. Defense	24.1	20	24	23
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Houston Texans	3	15	5	4		Oakland Raiders	25	23	12	24
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Cooper	131	82	5	1,149		Hopkins	151	78	4	954
Crabtree	145	89	8	1,003		Fuller	92	47	2	635
Roberts	77	38	5	397		Mumphery	12	10	0	69
Walford	52	33	3	359		Fiedorowicz	89	54	4	559

Notable injuries and suspensions: Derek Carr (OAK QB) – Out (Ankle) / Amari Cooper (OAK WR) – Questionable but expected to play (Shoulder) / Michael Crabtree (OAK WR) – Questionable but expected to play (Ankle) / Tom Savage (HOU QB) – Out (Concussion)

OAK Matchup Rating: 4.5
HOU Matchup Rating: 5.5

Oakland Raiders

Quarterback: We get things started in the Wild Card round with… Connor Cook? He was a fourth round pick out of Michigan State in the 2016 NFL Draft, and he doesn’t profile as a high quality NFL signal-caller. With both Derek Carr and Matt McGloin on the shelf, the Raiders simply have no choice here. This is a tough task for Cook in a road game against a good defense, and he is probably the last quarterback I would consider taking on this four game slate. There are better options, even if you are trying to get frisky with a low-owned play.

Running Back: If the Raiders want to have any chance to win this game, they need to simply run the ball as much as possible. The problem is that Houston will likely stack the box in an attempt for force Cook to throw. In addition, there is also a good chance that the Raiders will fall behind and be forced to abandon the run somewhat early. Latavius Murray had just five carries for 11 yards against the Broncos in Week 17, and he also loses snaps when the team falls behind. With the Raiders owning a laughable team total of just 16 points in this game, it’s really hard to go here. Murray played on just 30% of the snaps last week, and we simply can’t peg the production accurately. However, if the Raiders happen to get a lead, they should give Murray plenty of touches. He is a risk/reward GPP play, at best.

Pass Catchers: Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree are great athletes, but it’s hard to put into words how much of a downgrade they get with the Raiders now on their #3 quarterback. The Texans also have an elite cover corner in A.J. Bouye, which makes this situation even less attractive. Neither player logged more than 50 yards last week, but Cooper did manage to find the end zone. At their current price points, they do have some GPP appeal, but both have a floor of zero catches with Cook at quarterback.

The Takeaway: As you can see, I am definitely not high on the Raiders in this contest. Their implied team total is just 16 points, which is absurdly low for a team in the playoffs. Latavius Murray, Amari Cooper, and Michael Crabtree are GPP plays at best, and the Texans are my favorite defense on the board this weekend.

Houston Texans

Quarterback: The Texans paid a lot of money to land Brock Osweiler, and he was so bad through 13 1/2 games this season that he got benched for Tom Savage. Then, Savage performed poorly and got injured in the finale, so Osweiler took the reins again. Savage is not going to play in this game, so we have the Cook vs. Osweiler show under center. This is taking place in a playoff game. I prefer Osweiler over Cook if you have to pick a guy from this game, but the good news is that you don’t have to do that. Don’t pick your quarterback from this game. Osweiler had more interceptions (16) than passing touchdowns (15) in the regular season.

Running Back: Lamar Miller has been banged up all year long, and he did not play in the team’s final two regular season games. Outside of one big run against the Bengals, Alfred Blue did not do anything special while Miller was sidelined. Miller was a full participant in Wednesday’s practice, and he should be ready to roll for his usual workload in this game. I think the Texans will have more success sustaining drives than the Raiders, which should lead to more touches for Miller. Oakland ranked in the middle of the pack in rush defense this year, so the matchup isn’t bad, either. I don’t mind Miller as a mid-range running back play on a slate that doesn’t offer much in terms of value.

Pass Catchers: We have talked all year about how Brock Osweiler has diminished the value of guys like DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. That is still the case, as Osweiler refuses to push the ball downfield to those guys. His most reliable target all year has been tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz, and that tells you all you need to know about Osweiler. I expect Houston to try to control this game on the ground, and this should be a quick moving, low scoring game. There’s no reason to target any Houston pass catchers, even on a four game slate. I suppose you could consider Fiedorowicz as a punt at tight end, but his upside is limited.

The Takeaway: I feel sorry for the network that got stuck with this game as their first round broadcast. This is going to be some ugly football, and Brock Osweiler has been a disappointment all year long. My favorite plays in the game are Lamar Miller and the Texans defense, and they make a great correlation stack for your GPP rosters.

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks

Detroit Lions						Seattle Seahawks
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		8	42.5	17.25				-8	42.5	25.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.6	20	12	30		Offense	22.1	18	8	25
Opp. Defense	18.3	3	8	7		Opp. Defense	22.4	13	18	19
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Seattle Seahawks	4	3	16	3		Detroit Lions	30	8	27	29
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Tate	135	91	4	1,077		Baldwin	125	94	7	1,128
Jones	103	55	4	930		Kearse	89	41	1	511
Boldin	95	67	8	584		Richardson	36	21	1	288
Ebron	85	61	1	711		Graham	95	65	6	923

Notable injuries and suspensions: C.J. Prosise (SEA RB) – Out (Shoulder)

DET Matchup Rating: 5.0
SEA Matchup Rating: 7.5

Detroit Lions

Quarterback: I have been fairly harsh on the Lions in recent weeks, but their performance in those games isn’t going to make me re-think my comments. The Lions have backed into the playoffs with three straight losses against playoff teams, and they came from behind in the fourth quarter in all but one of their wins. If you played this season over again 100 times, this is probably one of just a handful of times that this Lions team would make the playoffs. Of course, some of that is due to injury, as Matthew Stafford hasn’t been the same in recent weeks, and the team has been without one of its offensive play-makers in Theo Riddick. Stafford did look better against Green Bay last week, but this is a tough test on the road with a tough crowd in Seattle. The Seattle pass defense hasn’t been as good since they lost Earl Thomas, but that isn’t enough to entice me into taking Stafford here. The Lions are simply trending in the wrong direction, and it’s always a bad sign when a team backs into the postseason.

Running Back: Theo Riddick has been placed on injured reserve, so he will not play for the Lions in the playoffs. Zach Zenner played on 97% of the offensive snaps in the Week 17 loss to the Packers, so he is the clear lead dog right now. He isn’t a flashy player, but he has the ability to find the end zone, and the volume is a positive. I do worry about the matchup here, as Seattle quietly ranks 2nd in the league in DVOA against the run. Zenner is still cheap enough to where you can consider him as a value play, but his price boost combined with a tough matchup and likely negative game flow make him more of a secondary option than a staple in the Wild Card round.

Pass Catchers: The speculation is that Richard Sherman will not shadow a Detroit receiver in this game, so he will likely see some of both Golden Tate and Marvin Jones. That has me shying away from both of them in this one. With Seattle struggling a bit over the middle lately, perhaps a cheap guy like Anquan Boldin or Eric Ebron is the play here. Seattle ranks 19th in DVOA against the tight end position this year, so I prefer to get my exposure to the Lions on the cheap, if I go anywhere. That fits the mold with a pick like Boldin or Ebron, so that is interesting food for thought on an ugly slate that doesn’t offer much value.

The Takeaway: It will be interesting to see if the Seattle defense is the most popular play this week. Although I like them, I slightly prefer the Texans given their matchup against Connor Cook. That said, Seattle has the capability to put up a defensive or special teams touchdown, especially against a hit-or-miss Matthew Stafford. If I take anyone from the Detroit offense, it will almost certainly be a value play like Zenner, Ebron, or Boldin. Even if I do that, I likely won’t put more than one Detroit player on any roster, as their implied team total is comfortably below 20 points.

Seattle Seahawks

Quarterback: It is really easy to ignore Russell Wilson on this slate. He is obviously better than the punt quarterbacks, but he is also a good bit cheaper than the two “elite” options in Rodgers and Roethlisberger. This will lead a lot of people to ignore Wilson, making him a very interesting tournament play. His results have been hit or miss this year, and it definitely hasn’t been a banner season for him. However, the playoffs represent new opportunity, and the Lions pass defense is nothing to shy away from. They actually ranked last in the NFL in DVOA against the pass this year. Wilson is a fantastic tournament play on this slate, but I do prefer to spend up on one of the two elite options in cash games.

Running Back: It has been a rough month for Thomas Rawls, and he logged his third straight awful game on Sunday against San Francisco’s terrible rush defense. We do have a qualifier, though, as the Seahawks pulled their starters early once they realized the Falcons likely weren’t going to lose (this eliminated the Seahawks from consideration for a first round bye). However, I’ve been able to make excuses for Rawls all season. The fact is that his performance simply hasn’t been up to par, and we do have to worry about him losing some snaps to Alex Collins. I will likely have some exposure to Rawls because of his cheap price tag, but he’s very hard to trust at this point, and the workload is far from a guarantee right now.

Pass Catchers: The Lions rank near the bottom of the league in defending the tight end position, though their defense is a bit healthier now than it was for much of the season. Jimmy Graham checks in as the best tight end play on the slate, and it’s a nice bonus that he actually isn’t priced at that much of a premium. I will lock him in to my tight end spot on a lot of lineups this weekend. Doug Baldwin might see a lot of Darius Slay in this matchup, but that doesn’t mean we have to avoid Baldwin on a four game slate. While he is a tier below guys like Brown, Beckham, and Nelson, he is still a reasonably good play and/or pairing with Wilson (especially in GPPs). The Seattle secondary receivers are tough to trust. but guys like Jermaine Kearse and Paul Richardson will have a chance to step up with Tyler Lockett out for the year due to injury. Again, don’t put much stock into last week’s snap counts, as the Seahawks pulled their starters quite early.

The Takeaway: Seattle has the highest team total of any of the four teams playing on Saturday, and we finally have some guys that we can target. Russell Wilson is a fantastic GPP play on this slate, as he doesn’t fit the “normal” roster build given his awkward price point. Jimmy Graham is the top tight end on the slate, and I don’t mind targeting Doug Baldwin even though he will see plenty of Darius Slay. Slay has been banged up, and in my opinion, he is a little over-rated in the NFL community at large. Thomas Rawls has been awful for much of the year and is a GPP-only option as well. The key to success could be taking a shot on a cheap Seattle wide receiver like Jermaine Kearse or Paul Richardson, though it’s never fun to click that button. Of course, those guys are better plays in GPPs than in cash games.

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers

Miami Dolphins						Pittsburgh Steelers
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		10	47	18.5				-10	47	28.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	22.7	17	26	9		Offense	24.9	10	10	14
Opp. Defense	20.4	10	19	13		Opp. Defense	23.8	18	16	30
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Pittsburgh Steelers	5	24	4	20		Miami Dolphins	29	20	25	26
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Landry	131	94	4	1,138		Brown	154	106	12	1,284
Parker	88	56	4	744		Heyward-Bey	19	6	2	114
Stills	81	42	9	726		Rogers	66	48	3	594
Sims	35	26	4	256		Green	34	18	1	304

Notable injuries and suspensions: Ryan Tannehill (MIA QB) – Out (Ankle) / Ladarius Green (PIT TE) – Questionable (Concussion)

MIA Matchup Rating: 4.0
PIT Matchup Rating: 8.0

Miami Dolphins

Quarterback: Can anyone stop the Patriots in the AFC? It’s not looking good, as 50% of the teams are quarterbacked by guys named Connor Cook, Brock Osweiler, and Matt Moore. Yikes. Moore has thrown for multiple touchdowns in three straight games, and I will admit that he has been better than I expected. The playoffs, however, present a bigger challenge. Moore has to travel on the road to face a Pittsburgh defense that has played better in recent weeks, and the Steelers closed the season on a seven game winning streak. In contrast to the Lions above, the Steelers are entering the playoffs on the right note. Moore is the best option of the total punt quarterbacks, but it is worth noting that Ryan Tannehill has NOT been ruled out for this game yet. Keep an eye on the situation as we get closer to the weekend, but this is likely a situation you can just avoid. It makes more sense to spend up at quarterback on this ugly slate.

FRIDAY UPDATE – Tannehill is officially out.

Running Back: A Miami beat writer posted a tweet early in the week basically claiming that Jay Ajayi is as good as Le’Veon Bell. While that statement is absurd, as his simple tweet did not factor in Bell’s immense production in the passing game, it does go to show you that Ajayi does have some upside to his game. He had three 200 yard rushing performances during the regular season, but the problem is that he often disappeared in games. His game log is far too inconsistent for him to be considered in the same breath as the elite running backs. I don’t love his price tag this week, and with the Dolphins installed as ten point underdogs, I have to stay away from Ajayi. He isn’t a quality pass catcher, and I expect game flow to hinder his production here.

Pass Catchers: It is always difficult to distinguish between the Miami pass catchers, and here is the target distribution in the three games that Moore has started: Jarvis Landry 22, Kenny Stills 18, and Davante Parker 17. That’s about as muddled as it gets. Stills is the cheapest option on both sites, though he isn’t much cheaper than Parker on DraftKings. If forced to choose between the three, I would opt for Parker on DK and Stills on FD. Despite that information, none of the three guys are must plays by any means. Game flow will likely be in their favor, as Miami is a large underdog here, meaning they might have to throw often come the second half of this game. It’s tough to trust any of the receivers with Moore under center, but there is some volume and price-based appeal here. The matchup isn’t terrible, but the quarterback play does present a major concern.

The Takeaway: It’s hard to trust an expensive Jay Ajayi due to the likely negative game flow here, so the passing game makes more sense to target. However, it’s also hard to trust Matt Moore in a road playoff game. Perhaps the best path to exposure is with one of the cheap receivers, who should be relatively safe options based on volume (assuming the Dolphins fall behind). If choosing between them, I would simply make decisions based on price, giving Parker the nod on DraftKings and Stills the edge on FanDuel.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Quarterback: The Miami defense has been slipping a bit recently, and Tom Brady basically did whatever he wanted before the Patriots took the foot off the gas last Sunday. Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers are clicking on all cylinders right now, and they should be able to spread the Miami defense out and attack at will in this game. I expect Pittsburgh to control the game and dominate the time of possession, so there is some game flow concern here. However, Roethlisberger is the safest quarterback on the board. Pittsburgh has the highest implied team total on the slate, and the regulars should be refreshed and ready to go after resting against the Browns in Week 17. Feel free to fire up Big Ben in any DFS game format.

Running Back: You know Le’Veon Bell has the bulletin board material from the aforementioned Miami beat writer. Don’t kid yourself. Of course, he is a great play any time he takes the field regardless of his motivation. His contributions in the passing game are unparalleled at the running back position outside of David Johnson, and he is a PPR gold mine. Since I am not playing Ajayi this weekend, there is a huge gap between Bell and the other running backs on the slate. Find a way to get Bell into your lineups, as his floor is far greater than any other running back on this slate. He’s as safe as it gets. Of course, with his price tag, you could recommend a GPP fade, but it’s very much a risky proposition.

Editor’s Note: Ladarius Green is still in the concussion protocol and is unlikely to play this weekend.

Pass Catchers: Oh, what a sneaky spot this is for Ladarius Green. Miami has been getting abused by tight ends of late, and Ladarius Green is practicing in full this week. He will be cleared from the concussion protocol for this game, and his receiving upside is matched by only Jimmy Graham at the tight end position on this slate. Green is very affordably priced for DFS this week, and he is your extremely logical pivot if you aren’t playing Graham. On DraftKings, you could consider using both (with one at your FLEX spot). The downside to Green is that he isn’t used on a large percentage of snaps. The good news is that he almost always runs a pass route when he is out there, and he is very productive with the targets he gets. Of course, I am not intending to bury Antonio Brown here, either. Julian Edelman had a big game in Week 17 against Miami, and Brown is arguably the safest wide receiver on the board this weekend. I have no interest in the other inconsistent pass catchers for the Steelers, especially with Green back in the mix.

FRIDAY UPDATE – WIth Green likely out, upgrade Jesse James as a potential punt at tight end.

The Takeaway: Feel free to utilize the Pittsburgh weapons, as this team checks in with the highest implied team total of the week at 28 points. Roethlisberger, Bell, and Brown are the safest options at their respective positions, and Ladarius Green is a sneaky tight end option in his return from a concussion when you consider how much Miami has struggled against tight ends recently. A Pittsburgh loss would be the biggest upset of the weekend, as this team is simply rolling right now. They will likely present the biggest challenge for the Patriots in the AFC, primarily because they are the only other team with a big play quarterback option.

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers

New York Giants						Green Bay Packers
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		4.5	44	19.75				-4.5	44	24.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	19.4	26	18	29		Offense	27.0	4	6	20
Opp. Defense	24.3	21	32	9		Opp. Defense	17.8	2	23	3
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Green Bay Packers	26	13	32	23		New York Giants	2	6	7	19
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Beckham	169	101	10	1,367		Nelson	152	97	14	1,257
Shepard	105	65	8	683		Cobb	84	60	4	610
Cruz	72	39	1	586		Adams	121	75	12	997
Tye	70	48	1	395		Cook	51	30	1	377

Notable injuries and suspensions: James Starks (GB RB) – Out (Concussion) / Randall Cobb (GB WR) – Questionable (Ankle)

NYG Matchup Rating: 6.0
GB Matchup Rating: 7.5

New York Giants

Quarterback: This is definitely the best game of the weekend, so it’s no surprise that the NFL saved the best for last. The first three games consist of what could be one of the worst playoff matchups ever combined with two possible blowouts. This is a rematch of an early season game that was also played at Lambeau Field, a game which the Packers won 23-16. Eli Manning was awful in that game, completing just over 50% of his passes for only 199 yards in the game. His one touchdown pass was a spectacular, highlight-reel touchdown catch by Odell Beckham Jr. The Packers have been playing much better defense of late, but their secondary is absurdly beat up right now. Sam Shields hasn’t played since Week 1, and the injuries have continued to mount as the season has progressed. It culminated with more injuries in the second half of the Week 17 win over the Lions. Because of the uncertainty in Green Bay’s back line, it makes some sense to target Manning as a value quarterback option this week. I would only do it in GPPs, and I think you have to pair him with a pass catcher if you play him. Of course, this isn’t for the faint of heart, but at least Manning has plenty of playoff experience to draw back on.

Running Back: The Giants struggled to establish the ground game all year long, and they ranked 29th in the NFL in rushing yards per game. Their leading rusher in the first meeting between these two teams had a whole 22 yards. The Giants always seem to abandon the run game, and there’s no reason to even look toward this unit. The snap splits are a mess, and no player has massive upside barring an injury or two. I expect the Giants to take to the air against an injury-riddled Green Bay secondary, and I have no interest in the New York backfield here.

Pass Catchers: If the Giants want to win this game against the surging Packers, they need a huge game out of Odell Beckham, Jr. He had an “average at best” 5/56/1 line the first time these teams met, but the Packers controlled the time of possession in that game, and Beckham still saw 12 targets from Eli Manning. While his floor is definitely lower than a guy like Antonio Brown, we all know that Beckham brings GPP-winning upside to the table. Against a banged up Packers secondary, Beckham is my favorite GPP target of the high-end receivers this week, as I expect his ownership to be far lower than that of Nelson or Brown. In my opinion, that is a situation we can take advantage of in tournaments. Sterling Shepard has struggled of late, but he is still playing on almost every offensive snap, and he has the ability to sneak in a big game here and there. With the Packers likely throwing all their remaining good cover guys at Beckham, Shepard is a sneaky target in his own right.

The Takeaway: This will likely be the best game of the weekend, and I expect the Giants to attack a banged-up Green Bay secondary via the passing game. Ignore the inconsistent running game and focus your attention on the passing game. Eli Manning is a risk/reward option at quarterback, while I really like Odell Beckham Jr. in GPPs. Sterling Shepard is also worth a look if you want a cheaper option.

Green Bay Packers

Quarterback: Even though Eli Manning has plenty of playoff experience on the other side of this game, you simply can’t overlook Aaron Rodgers. He came out of nowhere to enter the MVP discussion while leading the Packers to a division title over the final month of the season, and he ended up with a very respectable 40/7 TD/INT ratio on the year. He added four rushing touchdowns, and his numbers by the end of the season were very Aaron Rdogers – like. It turns out that rumors of his demise were greatly exaggerated. He’s as motivated as any player in the league, and his receiving corps is locked in right now. I don’t love the matchup here against an under-rated New York secondary, but Rodgers has as much upside as any quarterback on this slate. Based on his recent play, it’s hard to argue against him as the top overall quarterback of the eight guys on the board.

Running Back: Green Bay has been strangely unpredictable with their running back usage of late. After Ty Montgomery had a massive game against the Bears in Week 15, coach Mike McCarthy got Christine Michael more involved in Week 16. In the finale, it was Aaron Ripkowski toting the ball nine times for 61 yards. Ripkowski played on 48% of the snaps compared to 47% for Montgomery in the last game, while Michael barely saw the field. This whole situation is unpredictable, and Green Bay will live or die based on the right arm of Rodgers. Don’t over-spend for Montgomery in this spot, as the usage is unpredictable. The Giants also rank 3rd in the league in DVOA against the run, though they are also 4th against the pass. In any case, I will be avoiding the Green Bay backfield here.

Pass Catchers: I would expect Jordy Nelson to be very popular this week, as he was in Week 17 against the Lions. The Giants frustrated him in the first meeting between the teams, as Nelson caught just four of the 13 targets thrown his way. Though he did catch a touchdown, it was a tough night for Green Bay’s #1 receiver. While you can certainly play him in cash games on this slate, I prefer Antonio Brown for safety (in cash) and Beckham for upside (in GPPs). Davante Adams has been surging of late and caught two touchdowns in the regular season finale, so perhaps he is the game changer here. He also had a 5/85/1 line in the first meeting. He comes at a sizable discount from Nelson (especially on DraftKings), making him very much viable here. Jared Cook has played well down the stretch and is worth a look if you are punting the tight end spot.

The Takeaway: Green Bay has the second highest team total on this four game slate, and they will likely be one of the highest owned squads. I have my reservations against a good, under-rated Giants defense, but I will certainly have some exposure. Aaron Rodgers is as safe as they come at quarterback, as is Jordy Nelson at wide receiver. However, I slightly prefer the Roethlisberger/Brown combination if you are looking for stability. That said, it is somewhat of a hair-splitting exercise. All these guys are fine plays, with Davante Adams and Jared Cook representing more boom/bust GPP potential. I will avoid the running game after Aaron Ripkowski got an even split of the workload with Ty Montgomery a week ago.