NFL Grind Down: Wild Card Round
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
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| Tennessee Titans | Kansas City Chiefs | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 44.5 | 17.75 | -9 | 44.5 | 26.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 20.9 | 19 | 25 | 15 | Offense | 25.9 | 6 | 7 | 9 | |
| Opp. Defense | 21.2 | 15 | 29 | 25 | Opp. Defense | 22.3 | 17 | 26 | 4 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 24 | 6 | 31 | 8 | Tennessee Titans | 23 | 11 | 23 | 20 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Matthews | 85 | 52 | 4 | 788 | Hill | 105 | 75 | 7 | 1,183 | |
| Davis | 63 | 34 | 0 | 375 | Wilson | 51 | 32 | 3 | 407 | |
| Decker | 77 | 51 | 1 | 545 | Robinson | 29 | 17 | 0 | 181 | |
| Walker | 106 | 71 | 3 | 788 | Kelce | 122 | 83 | 8 | 1,038 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: DeMarco Murray (TEN RB) – Out (Knee)
TEN Matchup Rating: 4.0
KC Matchup Rating: 7.0
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback: The Titans have somehow found their way into the playoffs despite relatively underwhelming play by their quarterback for much of the season. Marcus Mariota has simply not played well, and we can no longer use his mid-season injury as an excuse. The Titans have a low team total in this game and are large underdogs against a Chiefs squad that has played much better defensively on their home field. The volume might be there for Mariota, but the efficiency is a major problem. I won’t be looking his way in any DFS formats this week.
Running Backs: The big question here is whether or not DeMarco Murray will suit up for the Titans. If he does play, I will avoid this whole backfield in a likely time share. If he is out again, we have to consider Derrick Henry as a volume-based RB #2 or FLEX option. He wasn’t all that great with his rushing attempts last week against Jacksonville, as he had a meager 51 yards on 28 carries. However, he did take a 66 yard pass to the house, salvaging a solid fantasy day. Kansas City’s defense is more vulnerable on the ground than through the air, as well. This slate is loaded with running back plays, so Henry would definitely not be a must play, but he is a decent choice if Murray doesn’t suit up. We will know before rosters lock since this is the first game to kick off, so keep an eye on this situation.
FRIDAY UPDATE – Murray has been ruled out, so Henry enters the DFS running back conversation, especially if you need a mid-range choice.
Pass Catchers: There’s limited appeal here, mainly because of the struggles of Mariota under center. He has thrown for less than 200 yards in four of his last six starts. The safest option from this group is tight end Delanie Walker, who led the team with 74 catches (21 more than any other pass catcher on the team), 111 targets (24 more than any other pass catcher on the team), and 807 receiving yards on the year. His three touchdowns were a bit of a disappointment, but Walker is a very sensible mid-range tight end option on this slate. It’s tough to spend up everywhere, so Walker is a fine pivot if you can’t get up to Kelce. As for the other options, there’s not much to get excited about. Rishard Matthews would be my choice if forced to pick a wide receiver, as he led the team in touchdowns (with four) and was behind only Walker in the other categories. Nobody is a must play from this group.
The Takeaway: Don’t get too excited about the Titans. They have one of the lowest team totals on the slate and will likely struggle on the road. Derrick Henry is a viable option at RB if DeMarco Murray is out, while Delanie Walker is a solid option at tight end. The Kansas City defense is squarely in play as one of the top units on the board.
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback: The Chiefs cooled after a hot start to the season, but they rebounded in December in order to make the playoffs. The play of Alex Smith has very much been hit or miss, but this is a favorable matchup against a Titans team that has been more vulnerable via the pass than the run all year. They allowed 27 touchdown passes, which ranked among the bottom ten teams in the NFL for the season. Smith is far from a must play, but he’s better than some of the other lower end options on the slate.
Running Backs: Kareem Hunt certainly has the ability to make a big play and post a solid fantasy day, but he ranks below the other top end running backs on this slate. With all the good backs on the board, we can afford to be a little picky with our selections. The Titans have shown a well above average rush defense all year, as they have allowed just 89 rushing yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry on the season. Those figures both rank fourth best in the league, and they allowed an NFL low five rushing touchdowns. I prefer the other top tier running backs by a large margin, though I won’t actively talk anyone off Hunt, especially since he will likely be lower owned in GPP formats.
Pass Catchers: Tyreek Hill is one of my favorite GPP plays of the week. His lightning big play ability could break a slate, especially if he happens to break a couple of them. He’s the only reliable wide receiver for the Chiefs and should get plenty of opportunities to break those big plays. Tennessee also ranks just 24th in DVOA against the tight end position, which squarely puts Travis Kelce into play. While Kelce is clearly the top play at tight end, the question becomes whether or not we have the salary available to spend on him. With a lack of quality value options at other positions, tight end might be a spot where we are forced to save a little bit. Hill is the priority play for me from this group.
The Takeaway: This matchup sets up better for the passing game, and I absolutely love the big play potential of Tyreek Hill in GPP formats. I will very much be overweight on him with my rosters. Alex Smith is a reasonable pairing with him in GPPs if you want to take that route. Kareem Hunt is merely a secondary option for me, as his difficult matchup puts him a tier below the other expensive running backs. I also like Travis Kelce, but salary cap becomes an issue with all the expensive plays on this slate.
| Atlanta Falcons | Los Angeles Rams | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 48.5 | 21 | -6.5 | 48.5 | 27.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.1 | 15 | 9 | 13 | Offense | 29.9 | 1 | 11 | 8 | |
| Opp. Defense | 20.6 | 12 | 14 | 28 | Opp. Defense | 19.7 | 8 | 11 | 9 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Los Angeles Rams | 9 | 27 | 11 | 17 | Atlanta Falcons | 19 | 12 | 14 | 13 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jones | 137 | 83 | 3 | 1,364 | Woods | 85 | 56 | 5 | 781 | |
| Sanu | 85 | 60 | 5 | 632 | Watkins | 70 | 39 | 8 | 593 | |
| Gabriel | 50 | 33 | 1 | 378 | Kupp | 94 | 62 | 5 | 869 | |
| Hooper | 62 | 46 | 3 | 491 | Higbee | 45 | 25 | 1 | 295 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
ATL Matchup Rating: 5.5
LAR Matchup Rating: 7.5
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback: It has been a quick fall from grace for the 2016 NFL MVP in Matt Ryan. He has had exactly zero “can’t miss” performances this year, and he had a total of ONE game with 300+ passing yards and multiple touchdowns. That was a 317 yard, two touchdown performance that also featured a turnover. It was a good game, but it wasn’t a GPP-winning type of game. As I have said in previous weeks, he is getting by far too often on name value alone. Against a Rams defense that ranks third in DVOA against the pass, expect a run-heavy approach from the Falcons here. My interest in Matt Ryan is limited to deep GPPs where I am pairing him with Julio Jones on a few rosters. That’s as far as I will go.
Running Backs: As I just wrote above, you could see Atlanta opt to focus on their ground game more often in this playoff game. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are both healthy at the same time for the first time in a while, and they still have the potential to be a dynamic one-two punch. Both guys totaled exactly 11 carries for 23 yards last week (which is freaky yet terrible), but Freeman excelled in the short passing game with a 9/85/1 receiving line. Freeman is still the preferred option between these two if I am choosing, but Coleman carries some risk/reward GPP appeal at lower ownership. You can run on this Rams defense, and I expect the Falcons to make a concerted effort to stick with the ground game.
Pass Catchers: Julio Jones is a freak athlete who is always capable of dominating no matter the matchup, but the issue is that we just did not see his upside all that much this year. He was very consistent from a yardage perspective, but he scored just three touchdowns. There is a lot of variance in touchdowns, but Jones has never been a massive red zone target. Jones needs to make a big play to smash value, and I’ll take a chance with some GPP teams. I’m not sure he is the most sensible cash game play given the layout of this slate. Mohamed Sanu is a decent mid-range target if you need to save a little salary. Austin Hooper and Taylor Gabriel have disappeared and are off my radar right now.
The Takeaway: My opinion stands that this is generally a vastly overrated offense. After leading the NFL in scoring in 2016, the Falcons ranked a mere 15th this year. This is an average unit that gets by on name brand. I expect Atlanta to stick to the running game in this one given that it is the more favorable matchup, putting Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman on the DFS map. Julio Jones is a GPP option with his big play upside, while Mohamed Sanu is a reasonable mid-range option. Nobody qualifies as a must play, and I would largely ignore this group if we had a larger slate. I don’t hate the Rams defense as a sneaky option, either.
Los Angeles Rams
Quarterback: How about those Los Angeles Rams? The coaching change has worked wonders for this offense, and for the development of Jared Goff. He has occasionally struggled in more difficult matchups this season, but the Falcons don’t necessarily prevent the stiffest test. Atlanta ranked below average in DVOA against both the run and the pass this year, and as long as Goff can stay composed against their solid pass rush, he should be fine. Robert Woods has returned from injury, as well, so Goff will have his full complement of weapons. Throw in the pass catching ability of Todd Gurley, and you have a solid all-around QB option. Goff is in the QB conversation for all DFS formats this week.
Running Backs: What is left to say about Todd Gurley? In my opinion, he’s the NFL MVP this season. Tom Brady seems like the clear favorite to win the award, which seems a bit silly in my opinion. Anyway, I digress. Gurley capped off his impressive year with a monster 50 fantasy point performance in Week 16 before resting in the finale. He should be ready to rock and roll in a decent matchup against the Falcons this week. On a slate that is loaded with running back options, Gurley simply can’t be ranked below #1 on the list. Yes, guys like Kamara, Ingram, Hunt, and Fournette are solid options, but Gurley remains the best of the bunch. If you can fit him onto your rosters, go ahead and do so.
Pass Catchers: If you can pick the right Rams wide receiver, that could be the key to unlocking this entire slate. Sammy Watkins is a distant third at this point, but I often struggle to decide between Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. The latter has had a fantastic season, but he still carries that stigma based on his career numbers as a member of another team. I’m slowly starting to put that aside, and Woods definitely has the touchdown upside. Kupp feels a touch safer in full PPR formats given his target volume. Both players are in play for me in all contest formats. The Rams don’t utilize the tight end position all that much, so we can safely avoid that group.
The Takeaway: The Rams are a totally different offensive unit under Sean McVay, and it shows with their rapid ascent in 2017. They should be able to keep that going in a decent home matchup against the Falcons. Jared Goff, Todd Gurley, Cooper Kupp, and Robert Woods are all solid DFS plays in the Wild Card round, with Gurley checking in as the clear-cut #1 RB option on the slate.
| Buffalo Bills | Jacksonville Jaguars | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 39.5 | 15.25 | -9 | 39.5 | 24.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.9 | 22 | 31 | 6 | Offense | 26.1 | 5 | 18 | 1 | |
| Opp. Defense | 16.8 | 2 | 1 | 21 | Opp. Defense | 22.4 | 18 | 16 | 29 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 1 | 13 | 1 | 9 | Buffalo Bills | 5 | 32 | 5 | 22 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Benjamin | 75 | 46 | 3 | 665 | Lee | 96 | 56 | 3 | 702 | |
| Jones | 71 | 25 | 2 | 291 | Westbrook | 42 | 26 | 1 | 330 | |
| Thompson | 65 | 36 | 2 | 532 | Cole | 75 | 38 | 3 | 715 | |
| Clay | 66 | 43 | 2 | 494 | Lewis | 45 | 22 | 5 | 305 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: LeSean McCoy (BUF RB) – Questionable (Ankle) / Marqise Lee (JAX WR) – Questionable (Ankle)
BUF Matchup Rating: 2.5
JAX Matchup Rating: 6.0
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback: Tyrod Taylor brings some upside with his legs, but the Bills just don’t seemingly have much of a chance on the road against an elite defense. I can’t make enough of an argument to support a quarterback who only accounted for 18 total touchdowns in 15 games when he is facing his toughest challenge of the year. Buffalo also has the lowest implied team total on the board at just 15 points. Pass.
Running Backs: As with Tennessee, we have a game-time decision likely in the Buffalo backfield. LeSean McCoy will likely try to gut it out, and this is 100% a spot to avoid. A carry split is very likely, and the Jaguars rush defense has been much improved over the second half of the season. They held Derrick Henry under 2.0 yards per carry in Week 17, and we can no longer cling to the narrative that Jacksonville’s defense is a run funnel. They are simply good in all phases. Steer clear of the Buffalo RB situation.
SATURDAY UPDATE – McCoy seems likely to play, but he might not get his full workload. I’m still avoiding this mess.
Pass Catchers: Buffalo’s two leading receivers this year were McCoy and tight end Charles Clay, who missed several games due to injury. No wide receiver topped 500 yards as a member of the team. With the league’s best secondary on tap, we can’t make much of a case. Clay can be used as a value option at tight end if you are desperate.
The Takeaway: Well, it’s easy to see why Buffalo’s team total is so low. This is a nightmare of a matchup against a great defense on the road, and Buffalo will likely be playing without their best weapon at full strength. I’ll give you Charles Clay as a punt play, but that’s about it. The Jacksonville defense will be mega popular in all formats.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback: The Jaguars have had a fantastic season, and Blake Bortles has shown a lot of improvement, but the question remains: How will he do on a playoff stage? I don’t think he’s necessary from a DFS perspective in this matchup. The Jaguars are heavy favorites and should be able to control the flow of the contest with their running game and defense. Questions still remain in the receiving corps as far as health, too, so the risk seemingly outweighs the reward here. I’ll stay away.
Running Backs: From a point per dollar sense, Leonard Fournette might be my favorite running back on the slate. The matchup sets up wonderfully, as Buffalo has been gashed by the run all year. They rank 31st in DVOA against the run, they allowed the fourth most rushing yards in the league, and they allowed four more rushing touchdowns than any other team. Good luck stopping Leonard Fournette in a game that will likely feature positive game flow for the Jags. I expect Jacksonville to dominate possession time in this one, and it wouldn’t shock me to see Fournette get 30 carries in Jacksonville’s first home playoff game in almost two decades. Fire him up.
Pass Catchers: Health questions still remain for Marqise Lee, and he seems to be on the wrong side of questionable as of Wednesday night. Allen Hurns did return from his lengthy absence in Week 17, and he should be good to go for his usual role here. Dede Westbrook and Keelan Cole will continue to man the outside spots. Westbrook and Cole have been the popular plays of late, and Hurns might genuinely get overlooked by a lot of folks in the Wild Card round. I really like Hurns as a frisky, low cost tournament option. The other two also provide some upside with their explosive play ability, but all three carry risk thanks to potentially limited passing game volume.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Marqise Lee is questionable but is trending toward playing. That makes this whole group significantly more risky now, as we have no idea how snaps will shake out amongst the four wide receivers.
The Takeaway: Jacksonville should be able to control the clock in this game, and Leonard Fournette is a priority option against a weak rush defense. Blake Bortles might have some jitters in his first playoff game, increasing the likelihood that Fournette gets to eat. The wide receivers are reasonably affordable, but the risk is there if the team doesn’t have to throw much. Don’t forget about Allen Hurns as an option that might get overlooked after missing significant time. He seems healthy now.
| Carolina Panthers | New Orleans Saints | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 49 | 21.25 | -6.5 | 49 | 27.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.7 | 12 | 28 | 4 | Offense | 28.0 | 4 | 6 | 5 | |
| Opp. Defense | 20.4 | 10 | 19 | 16 | Opp. Defense | 20.4 | 11 | 22 | 3 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New Orleans Saints | 13 | 14 | 16 | 2 | Carolina Panthers | 10 | 3 | 28 | 7 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Funchess | 106 | 61 | 7 | 792 | Thomas | 141 | 98 | 5 | 1,151 | |
| Clay | 18 | 5 | 0 | 70 | Ginn | 64 | 50 | 4 | 754 | |
| Shepard | 33 | 17 | 1 | 202 | Coleman | 36 | 23 | 3 | 364 | |
| Olsen | 29 | 16 | 1 | 181 | Hill | 20 | 15 | 1 | 117 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Devin Funchess (CAR WR) – Questionable (Shoulder)
CAR Matchup Rating: 5.5
NO Matchup Rating: 8.0
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback: If we get a game that turns into a complete shootout, this game would seem to be the most likely. However, Carolina has more of an uphill battle against a New Orleans pass defense that has been stout all season. These teams are division rivals, so we have two games of data when they faced off earlier in the year. Cam Newton threw for less than 200 yards in both those games, and he didn’t add a ton of production with his legs. The inaccuracy with his arm is a major problem, especially against a secondary that often doesn’t get the credit it deserves. The quarterback options aren’t that sexy on this slate, and Newton does offer some upside with his rushing ability, so he is certainly in play as an option. However, be prepared for a bit of a rocky ride. I like him better than I otherwise would because I think the Panthers will fall behind in this contest.
Running Backs: With a projected game flow that would feature Carolina falling behind, I have little to no interest in Jonathan Stewart. He managed just 102 total rushing yards in the two regular season meetings. Expect Christian McCaffrey to be heavily involved in the passing game. He was in the previous meetings, and shorter passes would be a better recipe for Cam Newton than trying to stretch the field against a good secondary. Give C-Mac a look in GPP formats on full PPR sites.
Pass Catchers: Newton’s issues with his arm don’t do this pass catching unit any favors. Devin Funchess is far too talented to be putting up the empty lines that we have seen all too often this year, and this is not the matchup with which to expect a breakout. Greg Olsen has disappeared often in recent weeks. The Saints rank fifth in the league in DVOA against the pass, so there’s not a ton of appeal here. I could see using Funchess or Olsen in tournaments for their potential upside, especially if Carolina falls behind, but the floor is nerve-wrackingly low for cash games.
The Takeaway: Even though this game could easily be the highest scoring one of the weekend, the Panthers side is much less attractive. They lost both regular season meetings and are clearly not as polished of a team as the Saints. There’s GPP appeal in guys like McCaffrey, Funchess, and Olsen, but the floors are low. Cam Newton is in play simply because of his rushing ability and the fact that this slate is not really loaded with quarterback options.
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback: Drew Brees hasn’t had the greatest fantasy season, generally because the Saints are content to rely on their running game at times. However, this is a fine matchup for Brees. Carolina’s outside corners have struggled all year, and Brees completed 74.6% of his passes in the first two meetings between these teams. He threw for four touchdowns and had nary an interception in those contests. With the lack of top end QB options on the slate, Brees checks in as the best of the bunch. I don’t think you absolutely have to roster him, but he is my #1 overall selection if forced to choose. He has a safe floor in this matchup.
Running Backs: The dynamic duo of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram should be up to their usual tricks in this one. Adrian Peterson was still around for the first meeting back in Week 3, but when these teams met later in the year, here were the lines for the two of them:
Ingram = 14 carries, 85 yards, 1 TD // 6 catches, 37 yards (24.2 PPR points)
Kamara = 9 carries, 60 yards, 2 TD // 5 catches, 66 yards (29.6 PPR points)
That’s how explosive these two guys can be. Even in a difficult matchup against a stout rush defense, they cannot be ignored. I prefer Gurley and Fournette on the high end, but the upside is there with both of these players — particularly Kamara. I’ll likely be overweight on Kamara and underweight on Ingram in GPP formats, but this is largely an exercise in splitting hairs.
Pass Catchers: Michael Thomas had a largely quiet season, but he did pick up his play over the final month of 2017. He finished the season with a respectable five straight games of 65+ yards, and he is generally the most targeted player on a weekly basis. Both Thomas and Ted Ginn have great matchups against Carolina’s outside corners, and I will have healthy exposure to both in GPP formats. Thomas is the safer play if you need a cash game target. Nobody else outside of the two running backs gets enough targets to be fantasy relevant.
The Takeaway: New Orleans should score plenty in this one, and I like the way they match up with Carolina. There’s a reason they won both regular season meetings. Both running backs are in play, while Drew Brees should be considered the top quarterback on the slate. Michael Thomas has the potential to be the top overall receiver on the slate, and Ted Ginn also brings upside against Carolina’s weaker corners.