NHL Grind Down: Thursday, April 6th - Page Three
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Edmonton Oilers at San Jose Sharks
| Edmonton Oilers | San Jose Sharks | ||||||||
 | Cam Talbot |  | Martin Jones | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 44-26-9 | 45-28-7 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.87 | 2.56 | 22.30% | 80.50% | Team Stats | 2.65 | 2.47 | 16.70% | 80.90% |
Oilers 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 49.16 CF% | 2.88 xGF/60 | 2.67 xGA/60
Sharks 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 51.48 CF% | 2.48 xGF/60 | 2.60 xGA/60
Over the past 25 games or so, the Oilers have the fourth best xGF/60 in the league. Much of that is driven by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, who have been fantastic. McDavid is matchup proof and there isn’t much to say about him at this point. His price is way up there and the draw isn’t favorable, but doubting Connor has been –EV. Nobody is going to question playing McDavid, but to play devil’s advocate, he will see plenty of Marc-Edouard Vlasic at 5v5. Vlasic is a strong 5v5 defender and has really limited the high-danger shots against. Working in Edmonton’s favor is the center depth of San Jose is stretched thin at the moment, with both Joe Thornton and Logan Couture unlikely to suit up. Beyond McDavid and Draisaitl, the Oilers are seeing good play from the second line of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle, and Milan Lucic. The Sharks could choose to put Tomas Hertl’s line out against the McDavid for a majority of the time. To reiterate, McDavid is matchup proof and while Hertl has been good this year, it’s not an overly imposing matchup. It does make things less promising for the second line, however, as the San Jose top line (in its current form) would then likely draw out against Edmonton’s twos.
As referenced above the biggest issue for San Jose’s offense are the injuries up the center of the ice. With Joe Thornton and Logan Couture unlikely to play, Kevin Labanc hopped on to the first line with Joe Pavelski and Melker Karlsson with Joonas Donskoi skating alongside Patrick Marleau on the second. Labanc is a strong value play as a member of the top line and top power play unit. This line could very well avoid the McDavid line, giving it some upside. Karlsson has been playing a bit better at 5v5 but he does lack power play exposure to the top unit and remains a low-floor value play. Attacking Edmonton’s depth is the best way to attack. With Hertl’s line likely out against McDavid, that would leave Patrick Marleau, Joel Ward, and Joonas Donskoi to reap the best 5v5 matchups. Marleau still skates on the top power play unit, but Ward and Donskoi aren’t overly impressive linemates. Cam Talbot was putting a rough end of March behind him before imploding against Los Angeles last time out. It’s possible that the Sharks can replicate the Kings here, but San Jose’s offense isn’t in great form (outside of the injuries). Over their past 25 games, they have a mediocre 2.48 5v5 xGF/60.
Oilers Elite Plays:Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl
Oilers Secondary Plays:Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Milan Lucic
Sharks Elite Plays: Joe Pavelski, Brent Burns
Sharks Secondary Plays:Melker Karlsson, Kevin Labanc, Patrick Marleau
Calgary Flames at Los Angeles Kings
| Calgary Flames | Los Angeles Kings | ||||||||
 | Brian Elliott |  | Jonathan Quick | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 44-32-4 | 38-34-7 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.71 | 2.69 | 20.20% | 81.60% | Team Stats | 2.44 | 2.43 | 19.00% | 84.70% |
Flames 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 49.94 CF% | 2.57 xGF/60 | 2.47 xGA/60
Kings 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 54.20 CF% | 2.68 xGF/60 | 2.52 xGA/60
The Kings are out of the Pacific Division race while the Flames are jockeying for position. The offense has a tough draw on their hands against a Kings team that remains a possession behemoth. Calgary’s offense certainly has weapons, but like the Bruins of the West, going against the Kings is like starting a car stuck in mud (unless Jeff Zatkoff ever starts again). Even with goaltending sometimes a bugaboo, the Kings defense and system is just not conducive to go up against. While Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau are playing great right now, they figure to soak up plenty of LA attention. Mikael Backlund, Michael Frolik, and Matthew Tkachuk remain a line very good at driving play, but they will be matched tonight. Ben Bishop could step in for Jonathan Quick tonight, and Bishop has bounced back from a sluggish start to his Kings tenure. Over his last four appearance he’s allowed just seven goals, and with a stingy defense in front of him, Calgary won’t have volume to bank on. Over the past 25 games, the Flames have averaged just the 24th best Corsi-For per 60 minutes at 5v5. It’s a limited upside game that comes with a very low floor. With Anze Kopitar likely to go out against the Monahan/Gaudreau line, the setup is theoretically better for the Backlund line.
After a frustrating string of performances offensively, the Kings busted out against the Oilers in their last game, scoring six times on their way to victory. Of course, most of the action came from the most surprising place in LA – the depth scorers. That makes following up on a solid performance a bit… non-actionable. Interestingly, the Kings finally gave Anze Kopitar some good wingers as Tanner Pearson and Tyler Toffoli left Jeff Carter’s side. That’s a big boost to Kopitar’s value while simultaneously reducing Carter’s. Carter remains a fine one-off because his shot volume should still be there, but the upside is down a bit and stacking isn’t really all that appealing (he skated with Adrian Kempe and Jarome Iginla). The Kings are a one-line team at this point. The matchup is not particularly strong here, either, even with the Flames the visitors. It looks to be a low event game on both sides of the ice. Even though LA has a strong Corsi-For number, the goals have failed to consistently materialize this year. Their xGF/60 is just fine, but the realized GF/60 has been down all year (1.83 over the past 25 games) – it might be too late to realize the correction. The Kopitar line makes for an intriguing stack in tournaments, but more as a secondary option. Calgary’s defense is strong and the team has done great a limiting quality scoring chances against. Brian Elliott should start this one, and he’s been struggling a bit of late, and his home/road splits do not look favorable with tonight’s venue.
Flames Elite Plays: None
Flames Secondary Plays:Mikael Backlund, Matthew Tkachuk, Michael Frolik, Dougie Hamilton
Kings Elite Plays: None
Kings Secondary Plays:Anze Kopitar, Tyler Toffoli, Tanner Pearson, Jeff Carter