NHL Grind Down: Thursday, April 6th
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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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New York Islanders at Carolina Hurricanes
| New York Islanders | Carolina Hurricanes | ||||||||
 | Thomas Greiss |  | Cam Ward | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 38-29-12 | 35-30-14 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.86 | 2.95 | 14.60% | 81.20% | Team Stats | 2.59 | 2.78 | 18.10% | 84.50% |
Islanders 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 49.42 CF% | 2.32 xGF/60 | 2.79 xGA/60
Hurricanes 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 50.94 CF% | 2.67 xGF/60 | 2.81 xGA/60
Give the Islanders credit right now – despite losing John Tavares last week, the team has kept their (longshot) playoff hopes alive. The offense may not be going gangbusters but the game has tightened up a bit and the defense is playing a little better (more on that below). Unfortunately the loss of Tavares really dims the outlook of the offense. The top line is split up, with Lee and Bailey moving around the lineup. While the line of Lee, Josh Ho-Sang, and Anthony Beauvillier has low-cost appeal with decent upside, the problem is tonight’s venue. With the game in Carolina, look for Jordan Staal and the top line to play against this line (though it’s certainly far from a lock). It’s also worth noting that Joakim Nordstrom may not have high offensive upside, but his HDCA/60 at 5v5 numbers are quite low. Last game he skated with Elias Lindholm and Victor Rask, so while this line isn’t a shutdown line by any means, Nordstrom can hinder the already limited upside of the second line (Brock Nelson, Josh Bailey, and Stephen Gionta). Even if Cam Ward gets the nod (and it will likely be Eddie Lack) this is a tough spot to trot out Islanders. Tavares was the only consistent generator of high-danger shot attempts, and by extension Lee and Bailey. With him gone, Josh Ho-Sang is the only forward with a decent HDCF/60. As Carolina’s defense plays better on home ice when they can exploit matchups, quality scoring chances would be the best bet for production, so the ceiling seems limited here.
The matchup for Carolina is a fair amount better. Despite the Islanders defense and goaltending performing well over the past few games, New York has one of the highest xGA/60 at 5v5 in the league (2.85) over the course of the year. Carolina has had issues putting the puck in the net despite a system that is conducive to pushing play. The best part of Carolina’s outlook tonight is that there are no matchup concerns for any of the top scoring lines. Even Jordan Staal, usually burdened with the most difficult defensive assignments, will have an “easier” night due to Tavares’ absence (barring an Adrian Peterson-like return from injury). New York’s defense has proven to be very beatable over the course of the year, while over their past 25 games they have allowed above-average rates of 5v5 shot attempts, scoring chances, and high-danger shot attempts. Jaroslav Halak deserves some credit in net for the Isles, however, as he has stopped 94% of the shots he has faced in all situations over the five games he’s played since being recalled. John Tavares’ absence will be felt by the Carolina offense as well. Taraves was a very strong driver of play and was virtually the only Islander regular with a respectable CA/60. The depth forwards and almost all defensemen for New York have high CA/60 numbers per 60 minutes at 5v5. This sets up very nicely for Jeff Skinner, who is scorching hot. He and linemates Lee Stempniak and Derek Ryan should draw some favorable matchups and are thus a nice line to look at (only Skinner is really one-off worthy). Similarly, Justin Faulk is the only reliable Carolina defender on a night-to-night basis. He pairs well with the Staal, Aho, Teravainen line as he skates with that trio on the top power play unit. Noah Hanifin and Jacob Slavin bring low floors due to low shot generation.
Islanders Elite Plays: None
Islanders Secondary Plays:Josh Ho-Sang, Brock Nelson, Josh Bailey
Hurricanes Elite Plays:Jeff Skinner, Sebastian Aho, Jordan Staal, Elias Lindholm, Justin Faulk
Hurricanes Secondary Plays: Lee Stemniak, Teuvo Teravainen
Winnipeg Jets at Columbus Blue Jackets
| Winnipeg Jets | Columbus Blue Jackets | ||||||||
 | Eric Comrie |  | Joonas Korpisalo | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 38-35-7 | 49-22-8 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.99 | 3.13 | 17.80% | 77.00% | Team Stats | 3.01 | 2.30 | 19.80% | 83.10% |
Jets 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 48.95 CF% | 2.80 xGF/60 | 2.88 xGA/60
Blue Jackets 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 50.39 CF% | 2.89 xGF/60 | 2.79 xGA/60
The surging Jets have a sneaky-good matchup to continue to light the lamp as the season draws to an end. They overcame a very difficult matchup on Tuesday night (in St. Louis) and from a defensive personnel point of view, this matchup is much better. While Columbus does have potential Vezina winner Sergei Bobrovsky in net, the Columbus defense has not been good this year. To gain an appreciation of Bob, consider that the Blue Jackets own a 5v5 xGA/60 of 2.79. Their actual GA/60? Just 1.58. So, to say that Bobrovsky has bailed out the defense is an understatement. That xGA/60 is on the high side, and Winnipeg’s xGF/60 is reaching an impressive number over their past ~25 games or so. At this stage of game, Brandon Dubinsky is no longer a shutdown center and Seth Jones is the only real defender worth worrying about on the blueline. In fact, the toughest matchups as it relates to limiting high-danger shot attempts come from players that have seen time on third line and down (Brandon Saad, Sam Gagner, etc). Saad looks to be back up on the top line, at least for now. It’s a coin flip as to which line Dubinsky goes out against, but teams do tend to put their preferred matchups on Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele, and Nikolaj Ehlers. For this reason, Wheeler’s line may be the preferred play, but the line that goes off for Winnipeg seems to be the one you don’t play. The Jets figure to get a little more attention after the work they did to St. Louis Tuesday night, but they should still come at reasonable sub-10% ownership in tournaments.
If this was still December, it would be a slam-dunk matchup for the Blue Jackets offense, specifically the members of the top power play unit. It’s spring time now, and the playoff-bound Jackets are slowing things down and have seen their offense struggle to score. Winnipeg is a middle of the road 5v5 draw, and skew a bit toward the more difficult opponent to play against. Winnipeg is slightly generous in allowing shot attempts and scoring chances but a bit stingier with high-danger shots. Of course, goaltending has underperformed and taking penalties is their Huckleberry. Despite a recent cold snap, the Columbus top power play becomes of serious intrigue tonight. The fact that Winnipeg is undisciplined and doesn’t kill penalties well (77%) is boosted by the fact that the Jets will start rookie Eric Comrie tonight. He’s never played in the NHL and doesn’t have spectacular AHL numbers this year (.906 save percentage in 47 games). Over their past 25 games, the HDCF/60 produced by Columbus remains fifth best in the league. This might be a time to get back on the Columbus bandwagon, if just for one night, as they look to tune-up before the playoffs. As regular DFS players know, John Tortorella likes to spread his talent among the lines and the top power play is a melting pot of shooters. Alex Wennberg and Oliver Bjorkstrand saw time together at both 5v5 and on the top power play unit last game, while Cam Atkinson and Nick Foligno did the same. Brandon Saad joins Wennberg and Bjorkstrand at 5v5 and this line arguably has the better matchup. As mentioned above, the Jackets tend to put Brandon Dubinsky against opposing top lines and he figures to draw Blake Wheeler’s line. Dubinsky plays between Foligno and Atkinson. The Wennberg line also comes much cheaper, with Bjorkstrand in particular down in price. Winnipeg’s bottom six is quite bad, so veterans Sam Gagner and Scott Hartnell have some appeal in deep GPP lineups. They’ve been strong points/60 players this year in sheltered minutes, and they skate on the second power play unit. If Zach Werenski sits again, Seth Jones remains a great play as the man on the blueline.
Jets Elite Plays:Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers
Jets Secondary Plays:Bryan Little, Mathieu Perreault, Patrik Laine, Dustin Byfuglien
Blue Jackets Elite Plays:Brandon Saad, Cam Atkinson, Nick Foligno, Seth Jones
Blue Jackets Secondary Plays: Alex Wennberg, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Sam Gagner, Scott Hartnell, David Savard
Pittsburgh Penguins at New Jersey Devils
| Pittsburgh Penguins | New Jersey Devils | ||||||||
 | Matt Murray |  | Cory Schneider | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 49-19-11 | 28-37-14 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 3.37 | 2.75 | 22.40% | 80.40% | Team Stats | 2.19 | 2.86 | 17.80% | 80.40% |
Penguins 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 50.04 CF% | 3.20 xGF/60 | 3.12 xGA/60
Devils 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 47.54 CF% | 2.25 xGF/60 | 2.38 xGA/60
Following a strong win over the Blue Jackets Tuesday night, the Penguins will look to continue their point accumulation tonight against a weak Devils team. While the Devils play at a slow pace, they also lack the talent on the blueline to match the higher end Pittsburgh options. It could easily be a quick two or three-nothing game, which may allow Pittsburgh to limit the ice time of key personnel. Even if they don’t, given New Jersey’s pace and counting stat risk (they limit the high-danger shot attempts at 5v5, as well as shot attempts in general) paying a premium for Sidney Crosby et al becomes risky. Goaltending has been questionable in Newark, with Keith Kinkaid outplaying Cory Schneider (what a lost year for him). New Jersey’s slow, dull style is quantified to a low 5v5 xGA/60, placing them in the bottom third of the league despite serious roster concerns. With plenty of other games to choose from, the Penguins come across more as secondary options in tournaments, while Crosby’s cap hit can be applied effectively elsewhere. Crosby remains locked-in and linemates Conor Sheary and Jake Guentzel are back to performing at a high level. Unfortunately, the Pittsburgh secondary scoring lines are a bit jumbled in terms of strong correlation plays. For example, Matt Cullen bounced between the third and fourth lines last game. When he plays next to Patric Hornqvist he is a nice value play to offset Hornqvist’s cost. Same goes for Nick Bonino and Phil Kessel, who looks like he’s ready to bust out of his goal scoring slump. Once again, however, with New Jersey’s pace issues and potential for Pittsburgh to let off a bit down the stretch, Pittsburgh shapes up as a secondary DFS source and the likes of Cullen and Bonino aren’t exactly relevant.
On the flipside of New Jersey’s low-event defense is… a low-event offense. There are certain matchups when the Devils make for interesting contrarian plays, but even in the slam-dunk matchups it gets shady beyond Taylor Hall and Kyle Palmieri. With Michael Cammalleri back, by the way, Hall and Palmieri have been split up. Young Pavel Zacha now centers Hall and Cammalleri, and as far as extreme punt plays go, well, you could do worse. There is a decent shot volume floor on that line even with Cammalleri not the player he was even last year. Zacha has clicked with Hall earlier in the year and Pittsburgh’s banged up defense is exploitable. In fact, Pittsburgh 5v5 xGA/60 is one of the highest in the league at 3.12 over the past 25 games or so. If Marc-Andre Fleury were to draw the start, some argument could be made for Hall, Zacha, and to a lesser extent Cammalleri. With Zajac and Henrique on one line, New Jersey may very well opt to deploy this line against Sidney Crosby, so the matchup would be much better for Hall & Co. This line assignment does take away upside from Palmeiri, who now skates with Adam Henrique and Travis Zajac. This is a low floor line not recommended on a full slate.
Penguins Elite Plays:Sidney Crosby, Conor Sheary
Penguins Secondary Plays:Phil Kessel, Patric Hornqvist, Jake Guentzel
Devils Elite Plays:Taylor Hall
Devils Secondary Plays: Pavel Zacha, Michael Cammalleri
Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins
| Ottawa Senators | Boston Bruins | ||||||||
 | Craig Anderson |  | Tuukka Rask | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 42-27-10 | 44-30-6 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.55 | 2.61 | 17.60% | 79.80% | Team Stats | 2.88 | 2.56 | 21.60% | 85.30% |
Senators 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 48.52 CF% | 2.42 xGF/60 | 2.51 xGA/60
Bruins 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 53.96 CF% | 2.53 xGF/60 | 2.26 xGA/60
Both teams helped their causes on Tuesday night, but this is a game that still matters for both squads. With the game in Boston, the Senators are at a disadvantage, but Erik Karlsson’s return has been a huge boost over the past two games. At issue tonight is a stingy Boston defense and a resurgent Tuukka Rask. As much as the “they’re determined” narrative sounds nice, the truth is Boston is just as desperate for points and are not going to be run over by Ottawa. It’s unclear which line Patrice Bergeron and Boston’s top line will go out against, but there’s a reasonable chance it is Kyle Turris and Mark Stone’s line. When these team’s met up about two weeks ago it was a little mix with the majority going against Derrick Brassard. But given Brassard’s struggles it doesn’t seem likely that Bergeron will see a significant amount of time against that line. In any event, on a full slate there is little reason to consider Ottawa forwards. The Bruins have one of the league’s lowest 5v5 xGA/60, CA/60, and SCA/60. Their previous weakness, the struggles of Rask, are not an issue at the moment. Mike Hoffman is almost always in play as he is a strong shooter tucked away in a third line role, but there are no must-plays on the Ottawa side tonight outside of Erik Karlsson.
Now that Boston has clinched a playoff spot, don’t expect them to take their foot off the gas. They are still jockeying for position within the Atlantic Division, especially with Ottawa winning Tuesday. We know this will likely be a low event game for the Senators, and it kind of has the feel as the same thing for Boston. Brad Marchand may not be available for this game (his hearing is scheduled for Thursday morning and has not occurred as of this writing). While the Senators have a high CA/60 at 5v5, their quality chances against are on the lower end of the scale and outside of the top line, Boston’s offense is far from a sure thing. David Pastrnak remains a strong play, especially with his role on the top power play unit, but David Krejci and Drew Stafford on the second line are lower volume players. Craig Anderson bounced back in his last outing, posting a shutout over Detroit, but has still been struggling of late.
Senators Elite Plays:Erik Karlsson
Senators Secondary Plays:Mike Hoffman
Bruins Elite Plays:Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand (if available)
Bruins Secondary Plays:David Krejci, Torey Krug
Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs
| Tampa Bay Lightning | Toronto Maple Leafs | ||||||||
 | Andrei Vasilevskiy |  | Frederik Andersen | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 39-30-10 | 39-25-15 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.77 | 2.79 | 23.00% | 80.80% | Team Stats | 3.09 | 2.79 | 24.40% | 82.80% |
Lightning 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 52.59 CF% | 2.45 xGF/60 | 2.16 xGA/60
Maple Leafs 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 50.68 CF% | 2.82 xGF/60 | 2.51 xGA/60
The last game Tampa Bay played was a must-win. They lost. Thus… tonight is for all the marbles, as the Bolts must win this game in regulation to even have the slightest sniff at the postseason. The game is in Toronto, which is less than ideal, but Tyler Johnson has returned to the lineup, helping to boost the top six. He’s currently skating on the second line with Jonathan Drouin while Brayden Point has retained the role of top line center between Ondrej Palat and Nikita Kucherov. Line assignments should not be taken as a given in this game, however, because the Bolts could mix things up at any second to try to gain an edge or a spark. It wouldn’t be a shock to see the Triplets reunited. Whoever plays with Nikita Kucherov is likely to see plenty of Nazem Kadri at 5v5, the toughest draw of the night. While Kucherov is an electric player that can overcome tough matchups, this is obviously a less than ideal spot. Toronto hasn’t been a pushover team to attack despite their relatively fast-paced games. They do have a decent CA/60 at 5v5, but they do a solid job at limiting scoring chances and high-danger shot attempts. Additionally, Frederik Andersen has been playing quite well outside of one poor recent start (at Detroit). So as much as the narrative points to a Tampa Bay surge, this is far from a slam-dunk. Jonathan Drouin makes for a tournament one-off, but his cumulative three shots on goal over his past three games are concerning. To make matters worse, the Leafs kill penalties pretty well, so there isn’t a major push for the power play.
With their hypothetical boot on Tampa Bay’s throat, it’s possible the Leafs go for the kill. It’s also possible they avoid an aggressive track meet and instead look to keep this game at a reasonable pace and clog up the ice. Either way, the matchup isn’t great for Toronto’s forwards, though they have proven to be quite resilient this year. Auston Matthews continues his march toward the Calder while Mitchell Marner and William Nylander pressure him. The Lightning have a strong defense with two solid defensive pairings; one includes Victor Hedman and the other Anton Stralman. Nazem Kadri could be busy with a heavier defensive role as he’s likely going to be on the ice against Nikita Kucherov for much of the game. Tyler Bozak, James van Reimsdyk and Marner are starting to heat up again so they may be the line to go with in this one. Andrei Vasilevskiy has played better after a rough stretch in late March, but even so, he has allowed eight goals over his past three games. This game figures to be a great one to watch but may not make the best DFS target.
Lightning Elite Plays:Victor Hedman
Lightning Secondary Plays:Nikita Kucherov, Jonathan Drouin, Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat
Maple Leafs Elite Plays: Auston Matthews
Maple Leafs Secondary Plays:William Nylander, James van Reimsdyk, Mitchell Marner, Tyler Bozak