NHL Grind Down: Wednesday, March 1st
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning
| Carolina Hurricanes | Tampa Bay Lightning | ||||||||
 | Eddie Lack |  | Andrei Vasilevskiy | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 25-25-9 | 28-25-8 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.47 | 2.81 | 16.90% | 86.00% | Team Stats | 2.75 | 2.75 | 22.70% | 80.90% |
The Carolina Hurricanes will once again be without their top scorer as Jeff Skinner sits out his second game in a row with ‘an ailment’. It’s not that him being on the ice actually makes a difference as the Hurricanes dropped their eighth game in their last nine attempts last night to the Florida Panthers by a score of 3-2. Victor Rask picked up his third point in as many games since he moved to centering Sebastian Aho and Elias Lindholm. What this effectively does is make this the best line the Hurricanes can put out there as Rask’s FanDuel price stayed at $4,100 despite the current flurry of points. Jordan Staal makes for a nice one-off play here as he has compiled 32 points so far this season and should have some room on the ice to work with tonight. Brock McGinn and Phil Di Giuseppe are his line mates at even strength while Teuvo Teravainen, Derek Ryan and Lee Stempniak make up the team’s ‘third’ line. This gives the appearance of having three scoring lines but in reality all it does is deplete the team’s chances of scoring. This is evident especially in the last eight games where the team has scored a paltry ten goals. This pretty much maps out your strategy for tonight’s contests as there are only four teams to choose from. Carolina would be the odd team out while taking the Lightning goalie and using everyone but Carolina players to make up your roster. As far as GPPs go anything goes as you could make a case for taking players from the three supposed scoring lines the Hurricanes have. Justin Faulk, Jaccob Slavin and Noah Hanifin are the choices from the back line on a small slate like we have tonight as we have to go deeper into the rosters to find value. Faulk is the safest choice of the three by virtue of his 25 points in just 52 games played but with the team not scoring much it all looks about the same over the last 10 games.
The Tampa Bay Lightning have won six of their last nine games which has gotten the team closer to the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference. With 21 games left they are just five points away from the Toronto Maple Leafs whose 69 points would snare the last spot if the playoffs were to start today. Nikita Kucherov, Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson will no doubt be one of the chalkier lines tonight as both Kucherov and Johnson have combined for six goals and nine assists in the last five games. Brayden Point and Jonathan Drouin are also in play here for cash games as they are joined on the second line by Alex Killorn. Drouin and Johnson have identical statistics with 17 goals and 22 assists on the season while Killorn is a bit streaky but is averaging a point in every other game in the 60 he has suited up for. On a two game slate you almost have to look at the third lines as in play if you want to get any space between you and your competition. Vladislav Namestnikov and Valtteri Filppula would make a good change of pace duo for tournament play as they can score at times with Filppula being the stronger play with 34 points so far this season. Victor Hedman should be the defenseman with the highest ownership in cash games tonight as his seven points over the last five games has shot his seasonal point total up and over the 50 point plateau. Defenseman Anton Stralman should only be used as a punt play here as he has collected just 15 points in the 52 games he has played in this season. Now, if you want to use him as a punt that’s fine as his $3,300 FanDuel salary will certainly let you do that as he does get some shots on net and his body in front of shots. Tampa should be the best choice to win the game tonight so Andrei Vasilevskiy is your odds on favorite to have the highest ownership in cash games tonight.
Elite Plays
CAR: None
TB: Nikita Kucherov
Secondary Plays
CAR: Victor Rask, Sebastian Aho, Jordan Staal, Justin Faulk, Teuvo Teravainen, Lee Stempniak
TB: Tyler Johnson, Victor Hedman, Jonathan Drouin, Brayden Point
Pittsburgh Penguins at Chicago Blackhawks
| Pittsburgh Penguins | Chicago Blackhawks | ||||||||
 | Marc-Andre Fleury |  | Scott Darling | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 38-15-8 | 39-18-5 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 3.46 | 2.77 | 21.60% | 80.30% | Team Stats | 2.98 | 2.55 | 18.90% | 76.40% |
Pittsburgh comes into this one in a dead heat with the Columbus Blue Jackets for second place in the Metropolitan Division. They are literally in no danger of not making the playoffs so maybe now was a good time to three of their last five games as opposed to mid-April when the games will count for something. Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel and Chris Kunitz will skate on the top line while Evgeni Malkin centers Patric Hornqvist and Carl Hagelin on the second line. Crosby and Malkin are must haves on almost any night as they lead lead the team with 67 and 62 points respectively. Obviously if you don’t want to pay their high price tags then getting a piece of them could help soften the blow. Guentzel for instance is pretty cheap over at FanDuel as he has grabbed five points in the last seven games. This is what happens when you play with players that can make you better, you score more points. Phil Kessel brings his 21 goals and 35 assists skates to the third line to skate with Nick Bonino and Scott Wilson at even strength. This isn’t a bad line to target for GPP play as there is no doubt Chicago will try everything to stop the first two lines from scoring. This is usually easier said than done but nonetheless the thinking for taking this line is pretty sound for tournament play. Defenseman Kris Letang will sit out yet another game tonight which will make Justin Schultz one of the top three cash options on the back line tonight. Schultz has tallied 13 of his 30 points with the man advantage and could be in line to add to those totals tonight. Pittsburgh has scored power play goals in two of their last three games while Chicago has given up four goals over the last five games when trying to kill a penalty. Ian Cole could be another option on the back line as he has grabbed 20 points in the 61 games he has played in. I would only use him as a punt play here to help you get guys like Crosby and Kucherov into your lineups tonight.
The Chicago Blackhawks have won nine of their last 10 games but still remain in second place in the Western Conference with 83 points. They are almost guaranteed a playoff spot at this time even if they were to play mediocre hockey down the stretch. I wouldn’t expect that though as they are now running two hot scoring lines which has made it a lot easier to go on the run they have been on. We usually like the line of Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin and Artem Anisimov for our cash games and rightly so. They own three of the top four spots on the Blackhawks scoring chart with Kane leading the team with 24 goals and 41 points. Panarin’s 55 points finds him 10 points behind him in second place as each get the extra minutes on the top power play line. Head coach Joel Quenneville stumbled upon a fabulous idea a few weeks ago as he inserted both Jonathan Toews and his linemate in Richard panic on the top power play unit nest to the team leaders. This change did not impact the power play much as the hawks have just scored one goal since the move but what it has done is given Panik and Toews a boatload of confidence. Toews leads the team with 11 points in the last five games while Panik has lit the lamp twice and has added four assists over that same time frame. Even Nick Schmaltz, their even strength line mate, has kept the pace as he has grabbed seven of his 17 points in the last five games. By foregoing the Kane line and taking say Toews and Schmaltz, you could easily get Crosby and Kucherov with two decent defensemen for your cash games tonight. In fact, a lot of you have been asking about how one goes about making a roster. Why don’t we go through that below for cash games and I will throw a few head to heads up in the FanDuel lobby for tonight’s contests. The forgotten man here is Marian Hossa who could also be helpful from the third line with your tournament selections. Duncan Keith is the choice on the back line for Chicago as he has seen 15 of his 42 points come with the man advantage. Trevor van Riemsdyk or Brent Seabrook would be the alternatives here, but for cash games I’d stick with Keith. (and do as I explain below)
Elite Plays
PIT: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin
CHI: Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews
Secondary Plays
PIT: Phil Kessel, Patric Hornqvist, Justin Schultz
CHI: Artemi Panarin, Artem Anisimov, Duncan Keith, Richard Panik
BONUS ANALYSIS (building a cash game lineup on a two-game slate)
Okay, so we go with Andrei Vasilevskiy as the goalie as Carolina is the team that should lose the game but also, not score a lot of goals. Then we move to defense and take Justin Schultz and Duncan Keith, who by the way is the choice on Chicago’s back line. Only Victor Hedman would seem to be a safer pick than these two but for the purpose of making a decent roster, we have to cut the fat somewhere. On small slates, that’s usually on the front lines for me as I want two dependable defensemen who can grab a point or two in the right matchup. On the top end of things we go ahead and take Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel as Guentzel’s $4,200 price tag is a bit cheap here considering who is playing next to. From there our other center will be Jonathan Toews as we pair him up with nick Schmaltz, his line mate. We forego the Kane line altogether here and hope that Toews and Schmaltz can keep the magic going. This satisfies both center positions and two winger positions.
We then set our gaze to the Tampa Bay Lightning and go ahead and roster Nikita Kucherov. Here is where you need to make a choice. We either switch out a defensemen to go up and get Ondrej Palat, who we just miss by $300, or get another winger to fill in for $4,500 or less. I am opting for the second choice here as I do not want a scrub defensemen so I will take my chances on either Alex Killorn or Vladislav Namestnikov from Tampa Bay to punt here. IF I wanted to get Palat, I’d probably drop Keith off and grab Justin Faulk or Anton Stralman to get Palat. I’m not putting a player against my goalie, so Faulk is out and Stralman doesn’t give me the ceiling that Keith has, so I am sticking with Namestnikov. There you have it. I will post five games at 3 PM in FanDuel with the distinct possibility that my opponent knows my lineup, hence them being just dollar games for this exercise. In Friday’s Grind Down I will briefly go through the results.