Risers and Fallers: Volume 16
I’m back for another week of reviewing the most interesting players from the past seven days, pairing advanced metrics and insights from my DFS projection system, THE BAT, with my scouting background to try to figure out what to make of some the week’s most active lot of ballplayers. Guys whose stock is going up, guys whose stock is going down, guys who are perpetually underpriced or overpriced, guys who are worth paying a premium for, or guys who are just interesting and warrant some analysis on.
This past Monday was the trade deadline, so this week’s Risers and Fallers will focus on the guys changing uniforms and those indirectly affected by the moves.
PERCEIVED TO BE RISING…BUT NOT ACTUALLY RISING.
Texas Rangers Pitching
With the acquisition of Jonathan Lucroy, there are many who will be mentally giving Texas pitching (especially their rare good pitching, like Yu Darvish) a boost. Don’t. Lucroy has developed a reputation as an elite pitch-framer, and it simply isn’t true. Lucroy is above average at best.
Lucroy used to be an elite framer a few years ago when a lot of these great young pitch-framers weren’t in the league and before it received such widespread attention. Once it did, more catchers actively worked on improving their abilities, lessening Lucroy’s ability relative to the rest of the league. He’s maintained this reputation despite getting progressively worse relative to the rest of the league and in part because of poor analytical skills by some of those making the judgments. Even while declining, he would be near the top of leaderboards in terms of volume of strikes gained for his pitchers (or whatever framing metric you want to use), but this was a result of two things independent of his framing skills: 1) he doesn’t take a lot of days off, and 2) he didn’t catch many pitchers with great strikeout stuff, so he had more pitches to frame since relatively few pitches were being swung on and missed and were instead being called as strikes or balls. Essentially, Lucroy would still be “great” when you looked at raw volume, but if you broke him down on a per-pitch-called basis, he wasn’t.
Here’s a breakdown of Lucroy’s career pitch-framing arc:
Of course, we don’t just use a single year’s worth of data, so we don’t treat Lucroy as neutral right now, but it’s the third year in a row where he’s been pretty meh, and the trend is clearly downward, so THE BAT views him as just a bit above average.
The addition of Lucroy not only doesn’t help the Rangers pitching staff – it hurts it. It shifts Robinson Chirinos to backup duty and Bobby Wilson off the roster. Chirinos is below-average and Wilson is close to elite, so the swing is pretty large and removes the possibility of a Rangers pitcher once or twice a week getting a big boost with Wilson behind the plate.
RISING…AND UNDERPRICED
Rich Hill, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Mark it down: Rich Hill will be one of the top pitchers in baseball over the final weeks of the season.
My love of both Dodgers pitching and Rich Hill is well documented, so I’m salivating at the prospect of combining the two. The only thing standing in the way is a pesky blister that has caused Hill to miss a few weeks and get scratched from his first start as a Dodger on Sunday. When he joins the team, though, look out. He’s having a resurgent year, and his stuff is top notch. His fastball is back up a tick this year, and his curveball grades out as plus-plus. It may well be the best curveball in baseball.
Throw him into the context of the Dodgers, moving into the National League, into a better pitchers’ park (and one that doesn’t suppress strikeouts like O.co did), and give him the game’s top defensive catcher (Yasmani Grandal) to throw to, and Hill will routinely be one of the top options on any slate.
He was priced at just $9,500 on DraftKings and $9,300 on FanDuel for his scratched start on Sunday, which is just waaaay too cheap. The talk now is that he hopes to start on Friday at home against the Pirates, which would be a very solid matchup. I’ll be breaking the bank to acquire Hill in the Tout Wars NL season-long expert league tonight, and I’ll be playing him frequently in DFS down the stretch.
Scott Schebler, OF, Cincinnati Reds
Schebler was considered by many to be the favorite to start for the Reds in left field in spring training, but he struggled a bit out of the gate while Adam Duvall began his breakout campaign. He was quickly sent down to the minors, where he absolutely crushed before getting recalled following the Jay Bruce traded. He’s a regular starter now against right-handers, while he’s on a bit of a cold stretch, he’s going to be a favorite punt of mine over the next couple weeks. He’s a firmly average hitter, maybe slightly better, with a wide platoon splits. That means he’ll project very well against weak righties when he’s at home in Great American Ball Park (or another good hitting environment), and yet his price tag is dirt cheap. He’s been the bare minimum on FanDuel and in the low $2,000s on DraftKings.
He’ll get Michael Wacha and Mike Leake in St. Louis to start this week, so if it’s hot and humid there, he’d be in play. After that they’ll go to Miller Park, where Schebler will get a couple mediocre righties in Zach Davies and Junior Guerra.
Ivan Nova, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Nova was traded as part of the Great Yankees Purge of 2016, and he lands in a favorable new environment with Pittsburgh. Earlier in the year, people treated Nova like a gas can, but he really isn’t. He was a legitimately good pitcher back in 2012 and 2013, and he’s looked a lot like that pitcher again this year. He doesn’t have elite stuff, but he sits around 93 and gets his share of whiffs (his swinging strike rate is back at its 2012/2013 level). THE BAT sees him as essentially a league average pitcher, which is more than good enough in the right conditions.
Moving to the National League, PNC Park, and upgrading to Francisco Cervelli will make him a viable SP2 option on occasion. THE BAT viewed him as such on Friday night in his first start as a Pirate, and he did exactly what you’d want him to. He was priced at just $6,700 on DraftKings for that start, and if he remains around that level he’s a guy you should be considering in strong home matchups.
KEEP HIM IN YOUR BACK POCKET
Drew Hutchison, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates also acquired Hutchison at the trade deadline, who I’m very intrigued by as well in this context. He was sent to the minors, but I can’t imagine he’ll be down there very long. The team is currently using Ryan Vogelsong as one of their starters, and that simply can’t last long. I’ll circle back to him once the call-up happens, but he’d be an interesting cheap SP2 or GPP option in the right matchups.
RISING…AND OVERPRICED
Josh Reddick, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
As much as I love the Rich Hill acquisition for the Dodgers, I’m not as in love with Reddick. He’s a guy that I’ve long viewed as above-average but not great, which many will treat him as when facing weak righties. The park shift is a pretty neutral one for him, although he will be hitting in the middle of a much more potent offense. Morever, it’s a very lefty-heavy offense, so on days when the Dodgers project best, Reddick will project best also. He was a great option in the Coors Field series, although I’m going to have a hard time justifying a price tag in the high $3,000s on DraftKings on days when he’s at home. A $2,900 tag on FanDuel is a bit more palatable, but there are simply better values in the outfield most days.
RISING…INDIRECTLY
Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
The most important impact of the Reddick acquisition is the effect it will have on the Dodgers at shallower positions that you prefer to roster: Corey Seager and (to a lesser extent) Yasmani Grandal. Seager may well be the most talented shortstop in baseball at this point, and adding another good lefty bat to the middle of the order will help prop up the Dodgers team projections and increase his plate appearance and runs scored projections. When Seager’s price slips even a little too low, he can become viable in merely decent matchups, so this trade is a nice boost to his value.
FALLING…MUCH FURTHER THAN MOST PEOPLE REALIZE
Hector Santiago, SP, Minnesota Twins
The Angels made a perplexing trade at the deadline, quietly dealing Santiago (a solid veteran pitcher) for Ricky Nolasco (a not very solid veteran pitcher). Most won’t think twice about this change of context for Santiago, but it’s a huge one. Angel Stadium is the best park in baseball for pitchers in terms of both run prevention and strikeouts. Target Field is considered a pitchers’ park by many, but it’s actually a pretty extreme hitters’ park, especially for right-handed hitters. Righties already hold the platoon advantage on Santiago, so when he’s at home in Target he could get obliterated by them. Not only that, but Target Field severely depresses strikeouts, creating a huge downgrade in home digs. I liked Santiago occasionally as an Angel when he was cheap and at home, but that most certainly will not be the case in Minnesota. Don’t be fooled by the 2.91 ERA since the middle of June; Santiago will start crashing. Hard.
FALLING…AND DEAD TO ME
Francisco Liriano, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
It was risky enough trying to play Liriano when he was a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates this year. With a trade into the American League and the Rogers Centre, I see very few scenarios where he’s going an option as anything other than a GPP flier again this season. Earlier this year, I wrote about his struggles getting hitters to chase his slider down and out of the zone the way they used to, leading to him falling behind in counts and walking more batters. This is an issue that’s never firmly been resolved for him, so I can only see him being in play when he’s in an ideal road matchup. Looking at the schedule the rest of the way, the only ones that could be options are the games in Tampa Bay, Los Angeles, or Seattle. There’s not a single interleague game left, either, which would have helped.