The Fantasy Grout, Week 14 - Notes
The long introductions can be daunting. I get it.
I was going to write just such an introduction, laying out how terrible my fantasy football filing system is for information. I continually find little notes to myself, written on stickies, on envelopes, on receipts, on napkins. Only, I find them several weeks after they’re written, when they’re no help. Instead of saddling you with that sort of introduction, I’m just going to intersperse a few notes I’ve left for myself in the past couple weeks.
Previously On The Fantasy Grout
I blew my wad a week early, calling last week’s picks “a mixed bag.” If last week was a “mixed bag,” what does that make a week where I recommended the #3 overall Grout value (Ladarius Green) and the #6 & #8 Grout WR values (Brandon LaFell & Malcolm Mitchell), as well as James Starks and Colin Kaepernick, who produced the fantasy equivalent of a fart sound? It’s basically a bag containing a birthday cake and a cobra. Here was that Cobra Cake.
The Fantasy Grout
Anyone can recommend the lineup building blocks. Everyone knows them. You can’t fit them under your $50,000 salary unless you have those grimy, scroll-all-the-way-down sort of plays, that make everything fit. Here, we discuss them. Proudly. The Fantasy Grout.
That is unless you’re planning to start Jim Kelly. He costs $50,000 on his own.
One other thing. DraftKings has been making pricing adjustments, and it’s time we do the same. Look for discussions about them throughout the article, and note any changes in the Comments Section when making your Grout for a Shout picks.
TIGHT END
I really would consider a change here. After all, the limits being $4,000-or-less restrict only eight players on a slate with all 32 teams. That said, can you tell me (not guessing, knowing), who the starting tight end on the Jets is? How about the Bears? Do you know which tight end got the most snaps last week on the Falcons? How about the Broncos? Who did the Bills run out there last week?
With how top-heavy the tight end position is, I think the $4,000 limit is fine. Given that seven guys on six teams currently own 71% of TE 100-yard games, 41% of TE 7-reception games, and 44% of TE multi-score games, finding tight end production below the $4,000 price point is a tall, fat, intermittently-blocking, task.
Now let’s try to find one who makes it more than 20 minutes into a game before breaking his fibula. ahem..JoshHill…ahem.
YADA, YADA
Neal Sterling, $2,500 VS MIN – Not really.
But, he did put up 9.3 PT on his $2,500 salary last week, and Julius Thomas is still not practicing. Could he get back to that $3,000 price tag he had for no reason at all the first two weeks? No. He can’t. But we here in Groutland are rooting for it anyway.
Jermaine Gresham, $2,500 AT MIA – I think “Tent Time” is the next great Adam Levitan phrase. “Stone-“ is, of course, in the Levitan Lingo Hall of Fame. “HAM,” “funnel defense,” “#good,” and strangely “butt stuffing,” are legends as well. Call me crazy, but I think “Tent Time” has ability to finish among the greats.
It’s Tent Time for Carson Palmer, and given Palmer’s deficiencies, the closer you start to the quarterback, the more likely you are to get the ball. Gresham, usually about three players to his left or right, has been seeing the ball quite a bit. He’s averaging six targets, four receptions, and half a score over the last four weeks. He’ll square off against the Dolphins, who just gave up one of twelve TE 9+ reception games and one of nine TE multiple-score games, to One Hip Pitta. Gresham has two good hips, just as an FYI. Double the Production!
NOTE: I cleaned my desk off this week and found a Sticky Note to myself that said “#TECeilingsMatter” and a piece of junk mail with the message, “stop fighting it and pick a cheap tight end.” Yes, the notes I write for myself are sometimes in hashtag form. And contradictory.
GANG GROUT
C.J. Fiedorowicz, $3,900 VS IND – This might be as close as I can come to satisfying both notes. I don’t know if he’s cheap, but he’s a Grout tight end at least. As far as his ceiling? pastorthor did win the Grout for a Shout with him twice.
The real question is if Tent Time is Palmer’s excuse, what’s Osweiler’s excuse for having his attempts go for 10 & 20 yards at a lower rate than any other quarterback in the NFL? As one of the BMOCs in the Checkdown Republic (copyright: LeBatard Show), he has both the #1 and #2 tight ends as far as percent of routes targeted. Fiedorowicz is, of course, one of them, having been first or second on the team in targets in each of the last seven weeks, averaging 7.3 targets, 5 receptions over that span. Fiedorowicz had 6/85/1 in their first game, which started this seven-game streak.
NOTE: No D’Qwell Jackson for Indy. Leading Tackler.
And below that note.
NOTE: Stop losing your notes.
If losing Jackson doesn’t directly affect tight end coverage, it at least lessens the defense’s effectiveness, which makes for longer drives and more red zone trips. Also with the name D’Qwell, it shouldn’t be surprising how well he did at getting himself a 4-game disqualification.
WIDE RECEIVER
Like the tight end position, I was strongly considering a change at wide receiver. At the price point of over $5,000 this week, we have 37 healthy receivers, one injured one (A.J. Green) and one suspended one (Alshon Jeffery) over the line. That group includes at least one player from 30/32 teams, which means we have every single pass catcher on the Jags and 9ers at our disposal! Woohoo!
On the flip side, receiver is like no other position, in that the second or third receiver on a team can easily make the optimal lineup for the slate. Also, with how productive and expensive the top running backs have become, finding a Goodwill receiver instead of just a Walmart receiver is increasingly important. So, much like Kramer, in the case where he can eat but machines do everything else, we’ll stick.
YADA, YADA
Ted Ginn, Jr., $4,000 VS SD
NOTE: San Diego’s defense is much better. Bosa?
This was mainly referring to running backs. Since Week 4, they hadn’t allowed even 80 yards rushing to anyone, holding Doug Martin, Lamar Miller, Jay Ajayi, Demarco Murray, Devontae Booker, Devonta Freeman, and C.J. Anderson all below 4 YPC. That’s despite the Green-27 they sport on DraftKings.
Frankly, the same applies to the pass, where they allowed a receiver to top 80 yards receiving just once since Julio Jones went for a hundie-and-three-quarters in Week 7. Ginn would have been an obvious Grout choice, but for once, I’m trusting my NOTE.
Josh Bellamy, $3,500 & Cameron Meredith, $4,000 AT DET – Ah, my old nemesis, The CamMer. Coming off a two-game stretch that included 27 targets, 20 receptions, and 240 yards, he was my Grout for a Shout pick in Week 7 against the Packers. You know the story from there. Hoyer broke his arm. Meredith broke his streak (1 catch, 2 yards), and it broke my heart.
So, for that reason, and price considerations, I prefer Bellamy this week. They both got nine targets two weeks ago. Bellamy was able to haul in four, while Meredith only brought down two. Then, last week, Bellamy hauled four of his team-leading six targets, for 93 yards, with The CamMer was allotted only four targets.
As Farva’s note mentioned, the Detroit defense has stiffened considerably. The main driver though, is Detroit’s offense, hogging the ball. When the defense is on the field, they can be beat, as they’ve allowed the seventh most WR receptions this year and at least 7 receptions to a receiver in three of their last four games. Matt Barkley could easily dink-and-dunk Bellamy into 5 PT/$K territory. Or, he could just hit a 25-pointer
Taylor Gabriel, $4,300 AT LA
NOTE: Taylor Gabriel = Fool’s Gold. Not enough PT
What is it about Atlanta? First it was Antone Smith, who had 5 scores on 36 touches in 2014. Then Tevin Coleman, who has 7 scores in just 100 touches this season. Now, it’s Taylor Gabriel, who had 5 scores over four games, on 16 touches. Anyone but Julio, I guess.
Last week, with Julio’s bum toe restricting him to 47 of 73 snaps, Gabriel was targeted on 6 times, catching 5, for 44 yards. Now, Julio Jones has missed consecutive practices on Wednesday and Thursday, and Mohamed Sanu is not expected to suit up Sunday. Gabriel’s lack of playing time should be fixed which means his “per-touch” magic can dissipate significantly, and he can still thrive. Let’s hope it doesn’t though. Abra Gadabriel!
NOTE: This is one I’m just writing now. If both Sanu and Jones sit, I like Adrick Robinson, $3,000, more than Gabriel.
GANG GROUT
Malcolm Mitchell, $4,200 VS BAL – If you’re playing a slate that includes Monday, I think we’re nearing “Free Square” territory. It’s clear that his salary isn’t accounting for him playing 85% of snaps with Rob Gronkowski out over the last three weeks. That he scored twice on less than half the snaps in the sandwich week with Gronk almost seems inconsequential.
New England is the team that will adapt their play-calling to the defense, and figuring out how to attack Baltimore isn’t hard. They allow the least rush yards per game, by a wide margin, driven by them allowing the least yards per carry. With Brady off the injury report and on his home turf, it’s time to flip the switch to “All Pass.” Mitchell is a cheap way to get exposure to all those air waves.
Brandon LaFell, $5,000 AT CLE – At the top of the Grout price range, you’re unlikely to get a 5 PT/$K performance, but you’d be more than happy to see a 6/80/1 line, and the 4x it represents.
With A.J. Green going down at the very beginning of the Bengals Week 11 contest, we have three games of sample size showing LaFell to have a slightly larger piece of the usage pie than Tyler Boyd. Throwing in that LaFell has caught 5 of Dalton’s 14 passing scores this season and that his bigger body supports that usage, he’s the Bengal WR you want.
Oh, and they play the Browns, so you do want a Bengal WR. The Browns, they of the fourth most TDs allowed to WRs. They of the second most yards per pass attempt allowed. They who allowed 4/83/1 to LaFell back in Week 7, when A.J. Green was still there to draw 8 of 26 targets. Maybe, once they retool their secondary, they can call themselves The Whites, but for now, they are definitely toasted.
RUNNING BACK
At $5,500, the Grout limit takes away about half of the starting running backs, (14 this week) along with a couple key backups (DeAngelo Williams and Jacquizz Rodgers here). I think that’s fine. Instead of dwelling on it, I thought we’d walk through the steps to filter our Yada, Yada and Gang Grout running backs. You know, a little peek behind the curtain.
First, we’ll need to find the population of backs from which we’re choosing. The optimal lineup hasn’t included a backup running back since Tevin Coleman’s 29.3 in Week 5. If we assume that will again be the case this week, we can take the extensive list of running backs and pare them down to 32 backs. The list:
We should note that Mark Ingram missed practice Thursday after practicing on a limited basis Wednesday. If he misses, Tim Hightower, $4,500 AT TB becomes a no-brainer.
Of the list of 18 to the right, the Grout list, we immediately remove Latavius Murray as he plays on Thursday. We remove LeGarrette Blount because of the matchup versus Baltimore and the competition for the ball with Lewis and White. We then bump Terrance West because he hasn’t topped 77 yards since Week 6, and the game flow in New England likely won’t change that this week. We pull out Rashad Jennings, Devontae Booker, Frank Gore, T.J. Yeldon, and James Starks because of their matchups, their so-so performance of late, and the risk that snaps will be siphoned off by other backs. Gore’s matchup is better than the rest, but offsetting that is the fact when he first put on deodorant, it was just called “Spice.”
Voila. We’re down to ten for four slots. Jerick McKinnon is slightly interesting, due to his bottom-of-the-barrel price and his increased use in the pass game, but with Asiata there to slowly ruin fantasy from the one-yard line, you ultimately can’t pull the trigger.
Darren Sproles has an attractive matchup against Washington, and his pass catching and explosiveness are skills we always covet. Still, with Ryan Mathews back, healthy, joining Sproles and Smallwood in the backfield, rather than guessing at Eagles running backs, you’re better off doing this.
It’s hard to play Mark Ingram, banged up and in a version of a time share. You’d prefer he be ruled out, but that doesn’t seem likely at this point. If the Saints won’t rule him out, we will.
The pass-catching and red zone work of Theo Riddick normally would make him a great Grout option, but a wrist injury, coupled with his lingering ankle issues, have sapped his snaps. Also, no one catches Matt Stafford passes with their ankle, but their wrist. That’s another story. Without the pass catching, you can’t justify the $5,500 price tag.
Carlos Hyde has been heavily leaned on, with Kaepernick under center, and that workload for under $5,000 is attractive. Versus the Jets, who have allowed the second fewest yards per carry, and with how poorly the 49ers offense looked last week, there’s too big a risk you’d end up with a pedestrian, Dr. Jekyll stat line.
Jonathan Stewart. See the Charger NOTE above.
And then, there were four.
YADA, YADA
Todd Gurley, $5,000 VS ATL – Home. Versus the team allowing the fifth most running back scores. Versus the team allowing, by far, the most running back receptions and receiving yards. Versus a team with a depleted offense.
If not now, when? The talent is in there somewhere. This is a total Leap of Faith play.
Isaiah Crowell, $3,900 VS CIN – When you have a bye, it gives a man time to think. Over his Week 13 time off, when Hue Jackson (a running coach by nature) pondered how to beat his former team, what do you think his thoughts were? Let Bobby Three Sticks sling it fiddy times? (I’m sure that’s the lexicon he uses when pondering.)
Cincinnati is a bottom thirdish team at stopping the run and a top thirdish team at preventing the pass, which should incentivize Crowell usage. Even if Cleveland finds itself in some passish situations, Crowell has been surprisingly effective in the pass game, logging 21 targets and 18 receptions over the last four weeks. Game flow independent? Let’s say game flow independentish.
GANG GROUT
NOTE: Be on a guy the week before or the week after.
Lamar Miller, $5,100 VS IND – The Colts were allowing the sixth most yards per carry before they lost their leading tackler. Miller, when healthy, is a 3-down back, who gets goal line and pass game work. His $5,100 price tag is a season-low, by $500, and is $2,100 off his season-high. I know this isn’t the stock market, but …
Rob Kelley, $4,200 AT PHI – Thanks, in part, to game flow, Kelley has only gotten 14 carries in each of the last two games. That should change this week, as his coach stated plainly, “We ideally would like to get that running game going a little bit more. More touches for Robert because he’s been very good as far as running the football.” Kelley, starting in the London game versus Cincinnati where he took the reigns, has had YPC averages of 4.1, 4.4, 5.7, 2.6, and 4.5. I expect him to beat a medium-to-good Philadelphia run defense this week.
We have more important issues to tend to though. Has anyone photoshopped the nickname “Fat Rob” jumping over a shark yet? It’s time. It’s reached “Jim Bob Cooter” levels of overuse. When your dad, a.k.a. Bill Simmons, lingers on the fact a guy calls himself Fat Rob, you know the gig is up. Really, the worst part about the nickname is how completely underutilized all the permutations of R. Kelley have been because of it. Not here though, and not now.
Rob Kelley has been trapped in a closet, metaphorically, and he’s ready to break out. The Redskins will remix in more rushing, so he can go back to crushing. Then, after the game, there’ll be food everywhere because the locker room WILL BE catered.
QUARTERBACK
The standard line had been $6,500-or-less. If we use it, the field would be split with 23 in our range, with nine too expensive. That seems too easy. To quote the late Owen Hart, “Enough is enough and it’s time for a change.” The new Grout threshold for quarterbacks will be $6,000-or-less. This week, that means 15 are out and 17 are left.
YADA, YADA
Colin Kaepernick, $5,800 VS NYJ
The stomach it takes to click in Kaepernick this week is a superhero-level of gut. As a side note, any superhero with the power of flight must have a super stomach, right? You never see anyone raining puke showers on Metropolis, or anything like that. When Hal Jordan is zipping and flipping, battling with Sinestro, shouldn’t he puke? He’s just a human with a ring on. Or Spiderman, swinging and flinging himself through New York? Or Tony Stark, in the suit? Do super soldiers have enhanced nausea-protection, or should Captain America throw chunks instead of his shield from time to time? There is not enough puking in the comics.
Okay. I’m back. The Jets have given up, and their defense wasn’t that good to begin with. They just allowed 280-and-4 to Andrew Luck at home. Now, they travel across the country. Kaepernick should be granted a short field or two. Also, before last Sunday, Kaepernick had put up DraftKings scores of 37.14, 19.44, 23.9, and 27.22. The play count is still there. The read-option is still there. At home in California, better weather will likely be there.
Take your superhero Dramamine and hop back on the ride.
GANG GROUT
Trevor Siemian, $5,100 AT TEN
NOTE: No matter how bad the QB is, they’re going to snap it to him every play.
In my defense here, I wrote that before the KaepernickGate. The rest of your roster should be near bust-proof with a $5,100 quarterback. One key, though, is to be sure you’re not limiting your ceiling too much. Siemian, who has multiple 32-point games, has got vaulted ceilings, at least in a couple rooms.
NOTE: Trends > Raw Data, Late in the Year
The Rams may hold that Green-32 in spirit, but there is no worse team against the pass right now than the Titans. Over their last seven games, they’ve allowed two total scores to a QB, three times and three total scores, four times. Over that time, they’ve allowed 300 yards passing five times, with the two outliers being 275 and 262 yards. Plus, they are rolling, averaging 32 points per game. Shootout in the Nashville Corral.
If Siemian plays this weekend, he plays well this weekend.
Lastly, @ScottBarrett didn’t spend much time on Grout related things this week, so I’ll leave you with this little “note” instead.
MY GROUT FOR A SHOUT
I’m going with The PerpCorbTocks and picking C.J. Fiedorowicz. For now. If injuries open up Aldrick Robinson, Tim Hightower, or someone else surprising, I’ll
