The Fantasy Grout, Week 14 - Uber-Stack

by Luke Louison (GiantBallofOil) Last Updated 2015-12-15 03:43:11

Here’s the lineup that won the Millionaire Maker:

Total Salary: $49,600
Total Points: 276.46

This is the full-on, Grease, “Thunder Road” lineup: “The Rules Are, There Ain’t No Rules!” Five Steelers in nine spots? Yup! How he faded Wheaton is beyond me. This is the sort of lineup you create when you’re headed to see the game live. This is the sort of lineup you create when you think to yourself, “Let’s see how much I can stack one game, just for fun.” This is the lineup you create when you want to win a million dollars (apparently).

How big of an upset is it that the screen name of the person isn’t SteelersNation69, BigBenForMVP, or JeromeButtis? I guess 1DontTryThisAtHome1 is still pretty apropos.

For fun, I checked on his other eight lineups and discovered one thing for sure. His top-prize uber-stack was not an accident: Fitzpatrick with Ivory, Marshall and Decker, Brady with Blount, LaFell and Chandler, and Cutler with Forte, Jeffery, Bennett, and the Bears defense.

With a “Correlation Be Damned” lineup taking down the top-prize, DraftKings only reaction was to take a $20 tournament, with 229,000 entries, and expand it to a $3 tournament, with 958,300 entries. Whether it fills remains to be seen, but given the payout structure, this is undeniable. If you take 31st, besting 958,269 people, 99.997% of the tournament, and collect less than four-figures, there will be disappointment!

QUARTERBACK

BLAKE BORTLES, $6,000 VS IND – Cash Quality QB at a Grout-price, facing the Million Dollar Defense.

The resume of a defense should need nothing more than “Single-Handedly Made a Fantasy Millionaire.” The paper looks so blank though, so we’ll pile on. They’ve allowed the 3rd-most QB passing yards and are tied for the fifth-most passing touchdowns ceded. They’re even tied for ninth, in most rush yards allowed to the QB position, which matters for Bortles, who has the 8th highest quarterback rush yardage total.

Did I mention a team starting a quarterback, two wide receivers, a running back and a defense against the Colts won the Millionaire Maker? If that doesn’t get stated every other paragraph, it is burying the lead.

What’s even better for Bortles is the fireworks potential. A tip of my fantasy cap to Steve Buchanan (@SBuchanan on Twitter) for this data in his “NFL Perfect Lineup” article. Pittsburgh (against Indianapolis) had the most team DK points last week, with Jacksonville coming in second. Fourth place last week? The team that played Jacksonville, the Titans. To quote Eminem, “If the police come, they’ll effing shoot it out with them too!”

And, to answer your question, “Yes, Bortles over Winston in cash. Not close.”

THURSDAY NIGHT SPECIAL

DAVID JOHNSON, $4,300 VS MIN – Not. Enough.

I had a feeling they weren’t going to bump his price up enough to get the world off of him. Here are the stats from last week. He was $3,400 and scored 20 points, good for just shy of 6 PT/$K. He was 36% owned in the Millionaire Maker and 70% owned in the $5 Massive Double Up. All of that went into the pricing algorithm, and what the algorithm spit out was not enough.

To get the good news here, just look to “Wedding Crashers.” In their post-wedding football game, Vince Vaughn’s character tries to audible, “Red 7. Red 7. Hot Route. Red 7.” Owen Wilson’s character admits he doesn’t know what that means, and Vaughn tells him to just go over to the other side. Why is that good news? When your average Joe-Schmoe sees that “Red 7” next to David Johnson’s matchup, they don’t know what that means, but we just have to move David Johnson from the side where all the players are, over to the other side, where your roster is. That’s the Hot Route!

The reason is that the Vikings defense is a mash unit. They will be missing key pieces at all three levels on Thursday night. They’ve allowed a 100 yard rusher three straight games, all on well over four yards per tote. Even if you don’t typically play Thursday, I would this week. Stick in Johnson, figure the rest out later, and profit.

TIGHT END

AUSTIN SEFERIAN-JENKINS, $2,700 VS NO – There are plenty of problems with this play. We’re going to go through them Cinema Sins Style, to see if we can talk ourselves off of ASJ.

Everything Wrong with Austin Seferian-Jenkins versus The Saints in Six Points or Less

Coming off of an injury, he only played 21 total snaps last week. – Sin Counter: 1 Ding

Also, your shoulder is important to catch the ball. – Sin Counter: 2 Ding

“Chasing a Tight End-versus-Defense Stat” cliché. – Sin Counter: 3 Ding

Lately, the clear tight end play, if you want upside, is to pay up. – Sin Counter: 4 Ding

In games not against the Eagles, Jameis Winston has 12 pass touchdowns, in 11 games. – Sin Counter: 5 Ding

He also has no 300-yard games in that span. – Sin Counter: 6 Ding

Sin Tally: 6
Sentence: Play Him Anyway

Seferian-Jenkins has sufficient talent to meet your upside needs, and in only 21 snaps last week, he got six targets. With no setbacks suffered, there’s no reason to expect anything except an expanded snap count this week. Also, if Delvin Breaux is able to slow Mike Evans, it could funnel even more volume ASJ’s way. Ultimately though, it’s just the update to Smizz’s flowchart.

WIDE RECEIVER

ANQUAN BOLDIN, $4,000 AT CLE – Ultimately, last week, he only gave you 2.13 PT/$K on his $4,100 salary. It wasn’t for lack of attention. Receiving 13 targets, with the next closest 49er WR/TE receiving three, Blaine Gabbert targeted Boldin more often than Vince Vaughn’s character in “Wedding Crashers” targets tattoos on the lower back. (“Might as well be a bulls-eye.”)

Against a Hadenless-Cleveland secondary that has allowed three wide receiver hundred yard games in three weeks, expect the rotting process in reverse. That is, watch the Browns turn into green, for anyone who plays Boldin.

DEVANTE PARKER, $4,000 VS NYG – The target totals last week for the Dolphins didn’t show a 49er-esque disparity (both Parker and Jarvis Landry had 5), but the yards sure did. Parker had 63 receiving yards, with the lion’s share coming on a leaping, acrobatic, 38-yard touchdown snare. The next closest Fin receiving option? FIve yards. Like a jerk trying to be nice, expect a regression to the mean in receiving yards for Landry.

Still, with Rishard Matthews parked again this week, Parker should get the necessary targets to thrive. After all, his elite skill is the ability to catch the ball (underrated for someone whose job is to catch the ball). He’s big, he’s a leaper, he’s got a big catch radius, and he’s got soft hands. All he needs is an opportunity. The Giants have allowed the second most receiving yards to wide receivers on the year, including a pair of 100-yard days last week to the Jets. A Giant opportunity for Parker.

GOLDEN TATE, $4,500 AT STL – He’s Gold, Jerry. Gold (in a PPR).

Like a greeting before you fall on your face, he’s got a “Hi Floor.” He’s had a least six grabs in seven of twelve games, including 7+ in three straight. He’s been targeted just a tic under 10 times per game over that three game span, and plus a couple Tater totes.

Given a so-so matchup, and his low depth at target, he’s probably better suited for 50/50s and Double Ups. Value is value though. Speaking of value, how many people had to be named “Golden” and end up cleaning toilets, for one to hit it big? Golden Jones, the garbage man? Golden McCarthy, the cashier? If you’re going with a color first name, you really should be able to go “Color Tate, TBD.” Then, a pilot becomes Blue Tate. A farmer? Green Tate. Librarian? Red Tate. If he likes pumpkin flavoring? White Tate.

RUNNING BACK

CJ SPILLER, $3,000 & TIM HIGHTOWER, $3,000 AT TB – With Ingram on the IR, let’s just look at the facts, and then I’ll tell you where my gut leads me (other than to McDonalds).

Tim Hightower signed with the Saints in time for Week 10. He had been out of the league since 2011. The Saints signed Spiller to an $18 million contract in the off-season. While Mark Ingram had been the workhorse for New Orleans, here are the snaps and touches for these two in support of Ingram.

Week 10
Spiller – 18 (32%) 8-for-24, 2-for-10 on 2
Hightower – 16 (28%); 11-for-46

Week 12
Spiller – 12 (21%) 1-for- -2, 2-for-8 on 3
Hightower – 0 (0%)

Week 13
Spiller – 5 (8%) 1-for-0 on 2
Hightower – 3 (5%); 1-for-2

With Ingram benched in the first half of week 10, the Saints leaned on Hightower slightly more to carry the load, and since then, we have no real evidence of their “lead-back” preference. That said, it’s clear the Saints would like to use Spiller in the pass game. That matters. (See: Receptions, Point Per).

I’m playing Spiller this week. I don’t know how the work will be divided, but I feel comfortable knowing the types of touches Spiller is likely to get are going to be worth more. Also, I believe in Spiller’s skill set. Sure, he’s going to get injured. He always does. While healthy though, I’m on Spiller. Usually, this is where I put a joke, so I’ll add … The Saints Defense.

SHAUN DRAUGHN, $4,800 AT CLE – The 100% man fell to 79% of team running back snaps this last week, but his numbers didn’t falter. He still had 13 carries and five receptions (on six targets). Eventually, he’ll suffer the fate of DraftKings pricing figuring out how valuable his passing role is, and he’ll appreciate past viability. We are not there though. In fact, we’re not that close, if he’s going to continue to average 5.5 receptions a game. We can then focus our energy on the one major flaw with him: His first and last names, somehow, don’t rhyme.

DIGRESSION OF THE WEEK

Donald Trump has maintained a lead in the Republican primary, in large part, for his say-it-as-it-is, no-nonsense demeanor. There is a section of the American public that loves him not mincing words or being “too PC.” He’s more blunt that Reggae concert, but there’s just one thing that doesn’t fit. His hair.

For a guy who wants to be no-nonsense, that orange eagle’s nest up-top is pure non-sense, which is a shame. The answer is obvious. Shave it bald. No non-sense. There’s a back-up plan, if he doesn’t like it. He can grow a conservative, short, hair cul-du-sac. But until then, the Lex Luthor! So perfect. If I told you one candidate had a reserve of kryptonite in his possession, there’s not even a second guess, right? Please, Donald, go with the Luthor!

CHEAP STACKS

Like piles of ones and discounts at IHOP …

JAMEIS WINSTON, $5,500 to AUSTIN SEFERIAN-JENKINS, $2,700 VS NO – See the Cinema Sins for the reasons this isn’t cash viable. See the Saints Defense if you don’t get queasy easy.

RYAN FITZPATRICK, $5,400 to A Non-Grout Wide Receiver AT TEN – I prefer Marshall this week. Tennessee just gave up more passing touchdowns in a game than Jason Pierre-Paul can count on one hand.

JOHNNY MANZIEL, $5,000 to TRAVIS BENJAMIN, $5,000 VS SF – Brian Hartline has been the receiver du jour in Cleveland, but Manziel extending the play and putting up to Benjamin can’t be denied.

FLYER TIGHT END

JASON WITTEN, $4,500 AT GB – The (GB TD to TE) streak is real, and it’s spectacular.

Now don’t forget to submit your Grout for a Shout pick. One player, total.

$6,000-or-less – Quarterback
$5,500-or-less – Running Back
$5,000-or-less – Wide Receiver
$4,500-or-less – Tight End