The Fantasy Tiles, Week 8 - The Twilight Zone
There is a fifth dimension beyond that which is known to man. It is a dimension as vast as space and as timeless as infinity. It is the middle ground between light and shadow, between science and superstition, and it lies between the pit of man’s fears and the summit of his knowledge. This is the dimension of imagination. It is an area which we call “The Twilight Zone”.
Doesn’t it feel a little George Costanza-ish, to go right to the “fifth dimension,” when a fourth dimension hasn’t been proven to exist? It is the sort of oneupsmanship that could be expected out of a guy who once flew to Akron, trying to goad a former co-worker into making a wisecrack for a second time, just because he had the perfect comeback. (“Jerk store would’ve smoked that guy. Smoked him, I say!”) And, even if you ignore the extra garbage-time dimension, padding its dimensional stats, we’re talking about a man who lived his life by the motto, “If every instinct I have is wrong, the opposite would have to be right.” That’s The Twilight Zone to a T!
In honor of Halloween and Don Beebe, we’re going to flip things on their head this week. To start off the haunted happenings, we’re not only going to actually shout-out, the Grout for a Shout winner, we’re leading with it. There is nothing more Twilight Zone than that!
GROUT FOR A SHOUT
In Week 7, we had 32 to people offer up opinions on which Grout-level player was going to be the pacesetter in the points per thousand dollar category. Of them, 31 offered a player in the correct price range (the WR price ceiling is $5,000, juiblex) and 28 offered just a single player (special shout to wscooby who felt compelled to offer a QB, a RB, two WRs, and a TE). Also, we had a season high four people suggest the same person, Dorial Green-Beckham in this case, who made like a breakfast thief, and took a bagel.
Anyway, we’re here for a shout, so let’s start yelling! The winner of the Week 7 Grout for a Shout competition is … … there isn’t one. There are two, njsum and nvetta. They both called for Nate Washington to go off, and did he ever. He was the highest player for the week, using PT/$K, and the second highest scoring player, overall.
I could give the shout to nvetta, for being the first to make the call, but given that njsum defended me on my Charcandrick West call from Week 6 (using a heaping pile of sarcasm, no less), there’s no way I’m cutting him out. Dual winners. Holla?
LAST WEEK
The winner of the Millionaire Maker was Guzzi52314, whose handle happens to have an area code in Iowa, where daily fantasy is illegal. Costanza’s instincts would be to not play, living just outside of Cedar Rapids, and if every instinct George has is wrong, the opposite would have to be Guzzi52314’s seven figure score.
His 283.04 was just 21 points shy of optimal, and included six of nine players from that top scoring roster: Todd Gurley, Lamar Miller, TY Hilton, Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski, and the Rams DST. His only three “misses” were playing Philip Rivers, Mark Ingram, and Stefon Diggs instead of Kirk Cousins, Danny Woodhead, and Nate Washington. Then again, if he had nailed the optimal lineup, choosing to only spend $45,600 of a possible $50,000, we would have had another “Scandal” on our hands, for sure!
In his $ Million lineup, Guzzi had three Grout-level players on his roster, Gurley, Miller, and Diggs. All three could be found right here, last week. Gurley and Miller were the two running backs recommended, while Diggs was one of the four wide receivers Left in the Bucket. In fact, Gurley and Miller were two of the three highest scoring players across all positions for the week. When you throw in the fact that Darren McFadden (second-best RB value), Stefon Diggs, Danny Amendola, Michael Crabtree, and Rishard Matthews (four of the top six scoring wide receivers eligible for both The Fantasy Grout and the Millionaire Maker) were all Left in the Bucket last week, it’s clear we helped you make some money.
So, true to Twilight Zone form, just when you think we’ll ride the momentum of last week, suggesting another round of low priced, high scoring fantasy players for the week, there’s a twist…
TIGHT END
This week, we’re going to offer up only the high priced “Tiles” your Grout has been holding in place over these many weeks. And, we’re going to do it in reverse order. Do-do, Do-do Do-do, Do-do, Do-do, Do-do Do-do, Do-do.
With our newly acquired spending habits, we have ten TEs from which to pick, and of them, one is unavailable for the Millionaire Maker slate (Gronk) and another is very questionable (Gates). Magic 8-Ball, which should I choose?
UNDER CONSIDERATION
Greg Olsen, $6,500 VS IND – Big slice of a small pie. Olsen, has actually been the target on 28% of Cam Newton’s throws for the season, but suffers from the fact that Cam Newton has only thrown more than 31 passes twice this year. Those two instances also mark the only two times he’s thrown for more than 200 yards. His matchup against the Colts is deceptively tough. They’ve allowed only two TE TDs on the year, despite having faced Gronk. They’ve yet to allow 70 yards to a tight end, and have given up more than 5 receptions only once.
Olsen is talented enough and gets the necessary volume to overcome a so-so matchup, but there’s this other thing hampering him. When the Panthers get into the red zone, they have the deadly one-two punch of Cam jumping over someone and Cam running through someone.
Tyler Eifert, $5,300 AT PIT – Olsen may be dealing with a big slice of a small pie, but for Eifert, he is basically playing tight end in a soup kitchen, surrounded by mouths to feed. He has gotten just 21% of Dalton’s throws directed his way, and caught 22% of Dalton’s completions for 19% of his yards. At 6’6”, Eifert’s towering stature is his only saving grace, catching 6 of 14 Dalton passing scores, from distances of 13, 8, 9, 14, 10, and 4 yards.
Across from Eifert this week, are the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are a dream matchup, by the numbers. The bulk of the damage was in two games: week one against the Patriots and week five versus the Chargers. In that season opener, Gronk and Chandler combined for four scores, from distances of 16, 6, 1, and 1 yard, respectively. Gates scored twice in close as well, 12 and 11 yards. Eifert might as well dress as Fidel Castro for this game because if the Bengals get close, there will be a cigar.
Delanie Walker, $4,100 AT HOU – Last season, Walker was second in the NFL among TEs in yards per catch (14.1). What difference a year makes! This season, with Marcus Mariota mostly under center, he’s averaged just 10.3 YPC, running underneath much more. While that trims “upside,” it certainly helps raise his floor in PPR scoring. Walker has led or shared the lead in team targets each of the last three weeks, hovering right around 25% of his team’s passes. His name might as well be written in yellow in the snow, as he’s their … number one.
He faces Houston, who has been uber-stingy to teams with low tight end usage (ATL, TB, IND, MIA). Against Kelce, Olsen and Julius Thomas though, they gave it up more than that bowl of candy on the porch with no one watching.
PICK A TILE
Despite these guys all being priced far north of the Grout-line, they still aren’t priced the same. Those $1,200 steps to get from one to the next are steep, and if you climbed them only to get candy corn put in your dish, the first word out of your mouth would be “Boo!”
Ultimately, Olsen and Walker have similar reception and yardage floor, but Walker’s is at a $2,400 savings, making it hard to justify spending on the Panther. Though, if you’re looking for the tight end most likely to fill your fantasy bag full-full, go with Eifert, as the Zone he’s most likely to visit isn’t the Twilight, but rather the End.
WIDE RECEIVER
With 29 receivers over $5,000, it creates similar feelings to that first house you visit on Halloween. They still have every candy in every flavor. It’s almost overwhelming. In those situations you should remember this, just pick the chocolate or the Skittles. The new chewy version of the non-chewy candy might be great. Really though, what is the best it can be? Chocolate and Skittles.
UNDER CONSIDERATION
CALVIN JOHNSON, $7,900 AT KC – Everyone knows the Eagles defense is like a ghost when covering wide receivers. I guess it’s there, but you can hardly tell. It took until last week essentially, and the Panthers group of “wide receivers,” to not allow at least 50 and a score on five grabs to their opposition’s top pass-catcher. The spread in average points allowed to the wide receiver between that Eagle team, the #30 versus WR, and Megatron’s matchup, the #32 Chiefs, is the same as the spread between those same #30 Eagles and the #18 Texans. I mean, it’s not a spread, it’s a s…..p….r……e……..a…….d.
Johnson’s price, a full $1,300 less than Julio Jones, has “benefited” from early season matchups with the Chargers, the Broncos, the Seahawks, and the Cardinals. Not only do you get to face the porous Chiefs, but you get to face them at a discount.
Then there’s the fact that the Lions fired their offensive coordinator and promoted a new guy. If you were a 31 year old and were trying to make a splash in your first game as OC, to which guy would you game plan the ball? The transformer dressed as a wide receiver, that’s who.
JEREMY MACLIN, $6,200 VS DET – His price is well aware that Kansas City and Alex Smith didn’t throw a touchdown to a wide receiver last year. It must be baked in, to explain how low he’s priced. Like in an episode of The Twilight Zone, it’s like the computer has gained the human ability to get distracted. Psst. Program. Over half of Smith’s pass touchdowns have gone to wide receivers this year. FYI!
And, even without the score, all Maclin has to do is hit 100 yards on the 6.5 receptions he averages, and you’ve got your twentyspot. In a shootout against Detroit, take your cue from Jerry’s birthday card to Elaine: expect 100 yards, 6-7 receptions, AND MORE!
DEANDRE HOPKINS, $8,700 VS TEN – They almost should postpone this game. Having just given up 10 grabs for 90 yards and two touchdowns to Julio Jones, it’s not fair to have Nuk come to town with how banged up the Titans secondary is. You might be thinking that Julio only had 9 grabs and 1 touchdown, but those stats only apply to people who don’t have eyes. For us seeing folk, we saw the second score on a nifty little motion, sprint out from inside the five.
Also, don’t let that “11” fool you in front of the matchup. The Titans have given up the second-least pass yards only because they have faced 20 fewer attempts than every other team. They are in the bottom six in yards allowed per pass. Oh, and Houston plays faster than any other team in football. If we can’t postpone the game, can we at least put in a reception mercy rule?
ALSHON JEFFERY, $6,400 VS MIN – This is a play on his price still being too low. In each of his two games this year, Jeffery has been targeted 11 times, and with his talent-level, 11 opportunities is well worth $6,400. Plus, the last time the Vikings came knocking at the Bears’ house, Alshon turned the tables and took all the Bears’ candy, to the tune of 11 for 135 and a score.
ERIC DECKER, $5,300 AT OAK – Though his scoring streak was snapped last week in Foxboro, Decker still managed 6-for-94, on a season high twelve targets. Now, he heads to the stadium that most resembles Halloween on any given Sunday. It should be a treat.
The trick to beating Oakland is passing. Like the fourth tornado a storm-chaser sees, they’re a funnel D, ranking second in yards per game and 4th in yards per attempt allowed on the ground. I expect Ivory’s scoring streak to stop right about the time Decker’s gets started anew.
PICK A TILE
Pick the tile that picks on the Chiefs. An already overmatched secondary will be overcome with new looks thanks to the new OC, and those new looks will all just be Calvin Johnson. If you can make your Thursday lineup Stars-and-Scrubs-y enough to fit in both Nuk and Megatron, do it. It builds in such a high upside-high downside situation that your lineup will basically be a condo with vaulted ceilings in the penthouse.
RUNNING BACK
Pending Dion Lewis’s health, there are either 11 or 12 backs available for purchase with our new DraftKings Black Card. Among them are plenty of good matchups. Like your first pull out of your fully stocked candy bag, we get to be a little picky at running back.
UNDER CONSIDERATION
LE’VEON BELL, $8,300 VS CIN – All the stars align here. It is looking like a strong possibility Ben Roethlisberger retakes the field this week, giving the offense all its horsepower back. That means more sustained drives for Bell, which means more total work. It also means higher percentage of his work in the red zone, which means a higher value per touch. It also means defenses will have to play the pass honestly, which means more efficiency for Bell. All of that means that if you have the means to pay for Bell, you should. I mean it.
Then, you couple that with a matchup against the Bengals, who are a bottom five team in in terms of yards per attempt. Despite being home, the game is a pick ‘em, but for Bell, who is impervious to game flow, it doesn’t really matter. Run or pass, he’ll get that cash.
MARSHAWN LYNCH, $7,100 AT DAL – Last Thursday, we were reminded of what it’s like when game script goes according to plan for Lynch. He got it early and often. Seattle controlled the game, while never advancing it to a blowout. Lynch ran it 27 times, at a 4.5 clip, and awoke the beast(mode). Now, as a big road favorite off ten days rest, there’s nothing that stops it from happening again.
Well, unless you make a gypsy, and read the tea leaves. This leave says that his 27 carries was his high for the season, but that his second highest was only 18. That leave says his 4.5 YPC was a season high, but in his prior four games, he hadn’t cracked 4.1. Here’s a leave that just says Seattle isn’t moving the ball as well. That one just says his age? I think that one over there says “Rawls”. What do you expect? It’s the fall. There are lots o’ leaves.
TODD GURLEY, $6,300 VS SF – The best back in the league priced as the 8th best back, in a great matchup, at home as 7.5 point favorites. Are we done here? No, actually. I’ve got something.
Digression of the Week
If Gurley hadn’t turned out to be a MAN, in all capital letters, how much would he have gotten picked on in school? “Gurley” is obviously easy prey, but what goes under the radar is that “Todd” isn’t a terribly strong name either. For example, if Todd McShay was named Bryon McShay, would Mel Kiper bully him so much? Nope. What if Margo’s husband had been Jack in “Christmas Vacation,” would she have been so condescending when she asked, “Why is the floor all wet, Todd?” No way. And, don’t get me started on Todd from “Wedding Crashers.” If Gurley hadn’t been a superhuman athlete, things would have been pretty tough for him, that’s for sure.
JUSTIN FORSETT, $6,100 VS SD – Coming off two straight road tilts, one against the formidable Cardinals, this is a “Get Right Game,” for Forsett. The Chargers are allowing the highest yards per carry this season, by a decent margin. Baltimore is a favorite, so game flow shouldn’t be a problem.
Also, do you remember all those receptions we thought Forsett was going to get in Trestman’s offense? Then, we resigned to him not getting them? Really quietly, he’s tied for 6th in running back receptions per game. No team has given up more RB passing scores than San Diego.
By the way, if John Harbaugh is working the refs, do you think he ever says the name of the rule he thinks is being violated and then just yells the name of his running back, to subliminally get his point across? “Holding! Holding! Justin Forsett!
PICK A TILE
You’re picking Gurley. Probably next week too. To pair with Gurley, you might consider Forsett. His floor is sufficiently high, thanks to his receiving. Also, only 11 backs have more red zone touches than him, as the Ravens do run it when in close, so his upside is sufficiently high. Moreover, dropping $12,400 on two backs keeps the dream alive of wedging Nuk and Megatron in. Much like Halloween candy, if you could pull that off, it’d be sweet.
QUARTERBACK
Alright, I’m going to break for a second, so we can chat. The true idea behind The Fantasy Grout is to force you to dig through the rubble to find value. Those ascending wide receivers. Those running backs with roles that fit the game flow. Quarterbacks who are playing well. It’s supposed to be a punishment of sorts, to have to choose exclusively from the cheap players.
Last week, eight of the top nine best quarterbacks, using PT/$K, were at or below the $6,000 Grout-line. The week before that, eight out of ten. The one before that, six of seven. It’s getting to the point where paying up for quarterback is the punishment.
The moral of the story is this. If you find yourself paying up for a top-top quarterback, read these paragraphs again. Then, don’t. The other moral is kayfabe is way more funny.
UNDER CONSIDERATION
PHILIP RIVERS, $6,500 AT BAL – “If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again.” I have to think Rivers was taught that at a young age because even in a blowout, Rivers just kept pouring it on in the second half last week. Three scores. Two two-point conversions. Yards and yards. Rivers is 400 yards clear of the next closest in terms of passing yards this season, which is an easy mark to hit when you have thrown it more than anyone, and you have the fourth-best percentage of making a throw turn into a catch. I guess that makes it “If at first and at second and at third, you do succeed, keep trying anyway.”
Matched up against the Jugs machine taking Charger snaps is the Ravens, who allow the top ten stingiest yards per carry rate while maintaining a bottom three yards per pass status. If I told you I had no fear, as Rivers limped into the fourth quarter scoreless, I’d be telling you a whopper. Still, on this Halloween, I’m running Rivers back out there, without fear. Also, ummmm. Whoppers.
ANDY DALTON, $6,000 AT PIT – Wait, what? The second-best quarterback in fantasy, on a points per game basis, is still priced at Grout levels? Still? There are twelve quarterbacks more costly than Dalton? I’m for real. Is this the Twilight Zone? Like, for real? Whatever. I’m using Dalton, and if I have to, I’ll leave a $100 tip!
ANDY DALTON, $6,100 AT PIT – Don’t listen to me. Listen to Young Andy:
PICK A TILE
I don’t want to cry. Happy Halloween!